PHASE 2 SOLVE PROBLEMS BY APPLYING THE ALGORITHMS OF THE UNIT

Fabio Alexander Gil – 16076135

Tutor : Paula Andrea Carvajal

Curso: 212066_45

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA – UNAD

SCHOOL OF BASIC SCIENCES, TECHNOLOGY AND ENGINEERING

INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING PROGRAM

CCAV DOSQUEBRADAS

SEPTEMBER 2019
TABLA DE CONTENIDO

INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 3

SOLUTION PROBLEM 1 ............................................................................................ 4

Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event: ............... Error! Bookmark not defined.

SOLUTION PROBLEM 2 ............................................................................................ 4

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations: .............................................................. 6

SOLUTION PROBLEM 3 ............................................................................................ 8

Exercise 3. Matrix operations: ................................................................................. 8

CONCLUSIONS ........................................................................................................ 10

BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................... 11
 INTRODUCTION

In all tasks, as social, professional and personal, successful decision-making

becomes very important and the best result is always expected, so the importance
of tools such as the decision tree is used regularly
In the following work, it can be evidenced the exercises developed in the guide unit
1
In the following work we will see three real-life examples in which using decision
trees and the theory of utility in decision making that guarantees the development
and continuity of a decision process.
 SOLUTION PROBLEM 1

Exercise 1. Decision trees, EVPI and EVMI

Teratex, a textile company that has a productive experience in the foreign market
of 25 years, must decide if it manufactures a new product in its main plant, or if on
the contrary the purchase from an external supplier. The profits depend on the
demand of the product. The table shows projected profits, in millions of dollars.

Table 1. Decision process for the commercialization of the product

States of nature

Decision alternative Demand low

Demand low- Demand High
average -
utility - utility
utility

Manufacture 321 352 367

Subcontract 335 353 381
Buy 318 361 375
Probabilities Ʃ = 1 0,35 0,35 0,3

According to the corresponding information in Table 1 and the Predicted

Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) theory, the Expected Value of
Sample Information (EVMI) and Decision Trees, respond:

a. Use EVPI to determine if the company should try to get a better

estimate of the demand.
Demand low-utility 0,35 321

Nodo 2
Demand low average - utility 0,35 352 345,65
Manufacture
Demand High - utility 0,3 367

Demand low-utility 0,35 335

Nodo 3
Demand low average - utility 0,35 353 355,1
Node 1 Subcontracte
Demand High - utility 0,3 381

Demand low-utility 0,35 318

Nodo 4
Demand low average - utility 0,35 361 350,15
Buy
Demand High - utility 0,3 375
According to the previous exercise, it would be recommended to
subcontract
b. A test market study of potential product demand is expected to
report a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant
conditional probabilities are:

P(F/low) = 0,35 P(D/low) = 0,65

P(F/low average) = 0,41 P(D/ low average) = 0,59
P(F/high) = 0,32 P(D/high) = 0,68
c.
 SOLUTION PROBLEM 2

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that
satisfies the following systems of equations:

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing
in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph
its lines.

1. Y = -4X + 6
2. Y = -2X + 1
X 0 1 2
Y 6 2 -2

X 0 1 2
Y 1 3 5
 SOLUTION PROBLEM 3

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix
multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following
matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.

0.3 0.4 0.3

1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2
0.3 0.3 0.4

0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2

2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5

R/=
0.3 0.4 0.3
1. A= [0.1 0.5 0.4] B= 0.5 0.3 0.2 =
0.3 0.3 0.4
[0.1x0.3 + 0.5x0.5+ 0.4x0.3] [0.1x0.4+0.5x0.3+0.4x0.3] [0.1x0.3+0.5x0.2+0.4x0.4]
C = [0.4 0.31 0.29]
R/=
0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2
2. A= 0.1 0.5 0.4 B= 0.1 0.2 0.7
0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5
C= A*B = 3*3
C1.1= [0.5(0.3) +0.2(0.1) +0.3(0.2)]
C1.1= [0.15+0.02+0.06]
C1.1= [0.23]
C1.2= [0.5(0.5) +0.2(0.2) +0.3(0.3)]
C1.2= [0.25+0.04+0.09]
C1.2= [0.34]
C1.3= [0.5(0.2) +0.2(0.7) +0.3(0.5)]
C1.3= [0.1+0.14+0.15]
C1.3= [0.39]
C2.1= [0.1(0.3) +0.5(0.1) +0.4(0.2)]
C2.1= [0.03+0.05+0.08]
C2.1= [0.16]
C2.2= [0.1(0.5) +0.5(0.2) +0.4(0.3)]
C2.2= [0.05+0.1+0.12]
C2.2= [0.27]
C2.3= [0.1(0.2) +0.5(0.7) +0.4(0.5)]
C2.3= [0.02+0.35+0.2]
C2.3= [0.57]
C3.1= [0.6(0.3) +0.3(0.1) +0.1(0.2)]
C3.1= [0.18+0.03+0.02]
C3.1= [0.23]
C3.2= [0.6(0.5) +0.3(0.2) +0.1(0.3)]
C3.2= [0.30+0.06+0.03]
C3.2= [0.39]
C3.3= [0.6(0.2) +0.3(0.7) +0.1(0.5)]
C3.3= [0.12+0.21+0.05]
C3.3= [0.38]

0.23 0.34 0.39

C= 0.16 0.27 0.57
0.23 0.39 0.38

CONCLUSIONS

 In working life we will encounter situations that will test our ability to make
decisions, the previous exercises are a sample of how the mathematical
methods can be an aid for the resolution of these situations
  The previous exercises were a great help to remember knowledge of
mathematical methods

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-360),

New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition.
Julio Profe (2009). Producto de Matrices. Recuperado de
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRBuGozq6Us