Bear or Bull - Tips To Identify Current Phase of Indian MKT

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Last Updated : Sep 04, 2012 11:30 AM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18
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Bear or Bull: Tips to identify current phase of Indian mkt

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to give them the fish.
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Speaking at CNBC-TV18‘s show Investor Camp Nandan Chakraborty,
managing director-institutional equity, research, ENAM explained how
one should understand the stage in which the market is. "If you know
where you are you will know where you will be going."
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They say it is better to teach people
how to fish than to give them the fish.
Speaking at CNBC-TV18’s show X
Investor Camp Nandan Chakraborty,

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managing director-institutional equity,
research, ENAM explained how one
should understand the stage in which
the market is. "If you know where you
are you will know where you will be going." (Click on the attachment for Chakrabarty's full presentation)
Here is an edited transcript of his comments.
The Market Podcast | Reforms will

only change sentiment, won't boost
On market cycle: market overnight
Bear or Bull: Tips to identify current ‘Topsy Turvy’ situation for traders may (https://www.moneycontrol.com/new
Buy Bharti Airtel, In
phase of Indian mkt keep market sideways Shoulder Pattern su
The deep undervaluation stage is where there is abundant, but reluctant liquidity. This is the Stage I, where the market just seems market-podcast-reforms-will-only-
change-sentiment-wont-boost-
to go nowhere and is extremely low. The next stage is where you are going towards fair valuations. This is usually due to EPS
market-overnight-4411651.html)
growth which is either due to remedial measures by the government - interest rates get cut etc or by the industry itself. The stage
after that which tends toward over valuation is the one where most of the market returns are determined by the valuations rising
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rather than the EPS rising. Finally, we reach the bubble.
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There is no cause for a bubble to burst, there are only triggers which make the bubble burst. What is important is that house of
cards becomes so tall that any small trigger can make it fall. Then there is a sharp correction and suddenly a massive bear rally.
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This bear rally happens because the business cycle has not yet turned.
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There is little bit of reflexivity in the markets. This is a phase where business cycle has not yet turned therefore the EPS still looks
healthy and multiples still look extremely cheap because the EPS has not started to fall, which is the reason for this massive bear JioFiber vs Airtel vs
Act: How Jio's latest
rally. Then because of reflexivity and because of a host of other reasons there will be a bear phase, which is a rounded bottom broadband offers
fare against
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stage. Finally, you are back into the abundant liquidity stage. launch-how-jios-latest-
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If you look at the curves below, there are three waves. The momentum of returns is just below the bubble phase, after there is launch-how-jios-latest-offer-fares-
against-competition-4408621.html)
acceleration in corporate profits. So, the bear rally is actually at the time when you have acceleration in corporate profits and
Chandrayaan 2 landing on Sept 7: Here's
finally there is high inflation.
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What is the reason for these three curves? watch-the-event-as-india-creates-history-
4409811.html)
Economy passengers can soon hire a

guide to help board Air India ights
What happens is that it is working backwards as the line right in the bottom shows. Inflation is a demand supply squeeze.
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passengers-can-soon-hire-a-guide-to-
Essentially, there is far more demand than supply, which leads to corporate profits going up, which in turn leads to market returns.
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It is the reverse of the three curves which act on each other. The acceleration in corporate profits pre-empts inflation. 4410881.html)
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Corporates work because no inflation is coming. Similarly, there is a momentum in stock returns because you are anticipating improvements-fans-want-to-see-on-the-
next-apple-iphone-4410821.html)
acceleration in corporate profits. If you can burn this cycle in your memory, a lot of your work will be easier because you need to
know where we are. When you look at it you can see the bubble is what we reached in 2008, then we had a very sharp rally. IFA 2019: Asus ROG Phone 2 and gaming
laptop with 300Hz display make an
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There are various triggers where you know where you are in the cycle. Similarly, if you look at the bottom part you will see that laptop-with-300hz-display-make-an-
appearance-4408151.html)
the methods of valuation also keep changing across the different cycles. When you start of with the beginning of the cycle, you
are looking at dividend yield, you are looking at price to book and stuff like that which are absolute valuation measures.
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At that time, you are not really looking at outlook. That is the time when you are saying that markets are so low, I don’t really care.
If I lose 10-15%, but there is probability of gaining maybe 50-60% but I do not know in what timeframe and I do not know the
outlook, which is why it is not embedded in the price yet. What happens is that you buy dividend yield stocks and put small
portion of your portfolio then. It is only the performance of the stock price that makes you invest more. That is the first phase -
value phase.
The second phase is what you call a growth at a reasonable price i.e GARP where you talk about payback, where you talk about (https://serviced-
apartments/London_Apartment_Prices_Might_Actually_Surprise_Y
EV by EBITDA, PE etc. Then when you are reaching the third stage, you are moving from the EPS stage to the PE stage. That is London Apartment Prices Might Actually
Surprise You (https://serviced-
the part when you are looking at the technicals, reflexivity, PE to growth etc.
apartments/London_Apartment_Prices_
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Bear or Bull: Tips to identify current ‘Topsy Turvy’ situation for traders may Buy Bharti Airtel, In
Essentially, this dance of Nataraj keeps happening over cycle and continues to happen across cycle. The nature of the sectors
that move may keep changing. The length in terms of the periods and heights may keep changing, but what you need to know is
where you are in the cycle. That is the fundamental thing that drives what you should be doing.
So, each phase has no particular time period or height. It is only the symptoms, which identify the phases or at least what just got
over and what you think will happen next. It is only the characteristic that is the shape of the curve that becomes meaningful and
easier to digest.
_PAGEBREAK_
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There are millions of books written on how to identify the phases on the way up. It is only in a bull market that you get books
about the bull market. In a bear market nobody is looking at this. They are doing their own things. Therefore, there is very little
information or symptoms on how do you look at a bear market. How do you know that what stage of the bear market are you in.
Bengal is an intellectual country, so I am sure a lot of you may have read somebody called Franz Kafka. One of his best short
stories is the Metamorphosis. This is about a family member who becomes an insect. So, slowly his eyes turn green, scales start
on his body and so on. If you look at the stages of a bear market, it is very akin to what the story talks about. So, the first stage is
where there is horror. You rush to the bank to withdraw may be money for an operation.
The second stage is pity, where you search for worms to feed your poor brother sister. The third stage is you are fed-up now.
There have been lots of uncles and aunties who basically come to you and say, you have done a lot of sins in your past life,
giving you astrological remedies, ayurvedic remedies and so on. You have looked after the person for a long time and now you (https://storiespace/How_To_Build_Wealth_With_1_Stock_Like_Th
How To Build Wealth With 1 Stock Like

are ashamed and you are disgusted.
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The fourth stage is apathy. That’s a stage where he does not look like a human being anymore. He doesn’t talk like one, he
whistles instead of talking etc. That is the stage of apathy, where you have sealed off the bedroom door and you have made him
independently – have an independent exit for him to go to the garden and consort with fellow insects. If you look at these four
stages, you will remember and lets now translate to the stock markets.
The first one, which is this horror, is unwinding. That’s not the stage when midcaps fall. That’s not the stage where India falls in
relationship to the world because India is a midcap in a global context. What happens is, you feel that you are saved, but actually
what’s happening is people are unloading their most leveraged positions, their biggest positions.
The second is greed buying. So, stage one, you look backwards at the highs and say you are about 40% down from the high and
you start greed buying. Then again you get hit because stage 2b is, now you have broken the 52 week low or you have broken
the last so many years lowest PE and therefore you say buy.
The third stage is where you are questioning, should I have remained as an engineer? Should I have worked for Hindustan Lever
or should I be in the stock markets? That’s the stage when you are looking at your entire life, your entire portfolio and you are not
looking at whether I should buy ITC or Jain Irrigation. What you are looking at is whether I should be in India or not. Whether I
should be in gold, bonds or property? So, you are introspecting on your entire portfolio. That is a portfolio introspection stage.
The last stage which is the apathy stage is what I call the time horizon stretching stage. This is when the real treasure hunt starts
because you don’t expect a near term revival, but at current valuations you are willing to sacrifice short term volatility and people
are liquid of stocks. So, the rise starts again.
_PAGEBREAK_
When we are saying we are in phase six, as a summary of whatever I have said so far what can we expect? Living in this phase
six means, one is, inflation should peak out, but it is not going to happen immediately. Obviously, there are places like – I recently
went to Shirud district in Maharashtra where there is a major drinking water problem. They have had the worst drought in the last
40 years.
Sitting here in North India, you don’t feel the pain out there, but there will be problems, there will be lot of central funds released
towards various drought affected areas. In this sort of an environment you don’t expect inflation to come down immediately. It will
take a little bit of time but it will happen. So, inflation should peak out.
Earnings growth, if you look at the last quarter results it’s been fairly steady. While there have been surprises, but you see it has
stopped falling. So, it has stopped crashing. The consensus estimates have been more or less at par leading to interest rates
should start easing off with a lag may be sometime next calendar year.
A new bull market doesn’t emerge simply because the worst is over. If you look back at the cycle, there is still phase one to go
through. It is not that you have a bust and then new bull market starts. So, be prepared for that phase one.
Thirdly, the whole characteristic of a bear rally is what I call no reason rallies because there are for two reasons. One reason is
under ownership of a sector or a stock and the other is hope. You hope that there will be reforms after the President gets elected,
after the vice-President gets elected, after the monsoon session gets over and after the winter session gets over or may be there
is a QE which will come from the West, so you constantly live on hope. That is the nature of a bear rally. It is very sharp and swift.
Each time it will tempt you that a new bull market is on, which is why you have to keep your eye on the ball in terms of the cycle.
Markets phases in India:
We have seen 1995-1997 was a frustratingly flat period. Then we had high RoE bull run of 1997-2000. Then there was a horrible
dark period which is a bear run of 2000-2003. Then this once in a decade dream of everybody what we live for and the
whipsawing bear rally that we talked about. So, this is a perspective of what we have seen over the last couple of decades.
If you look at the Return on Equity (ROE) bull run; we all think about IT, but essentially it was multiples of FMCG, pharma and
high RoE stocks got massively stretched and then finally ended with one narrow segment blowing off. You did not really have to
choose stocks; nobody knew that if a stock will go up by 40% or 400%. If we did then we would have put our money in that one
stock. All you had to do is be in the markets. Secondly, be in the right sectors.
In the bear market of 2000-2003 the Sensex fell by 50%, while the stratospheric PE sectors collapsed two stocks that is HDFC
Limited and HDFC Bank continued to shine despite multiples falling. The second thing was when you see there is a problem the
seeds of the problem get corrected. At that time, there was a problem of fiscal deficit, which is why there was lot of talk of
phase
divestments, which of Indian
is why PSUs mkt
started going up. keep market sideways Shoulder Pattern su
If you look at 2003-2008 massive Bull Run, in retrospect you feel like slapping yourself. If there is going to be a liquidity driven
bull run, it is obvious that what will run is things like infra, metals, banks things which depend on liquidity. Again those were times
when you just had to be in any bull run. It is more important to be in the market and in the right sector rather than the right stock.
Then there are these flat periods 1995-1997, this is an ‘analysts paradise’ and a fund manages 'nightmare'. These are the periods
when the same sector you may have one stock going up and the other going down. You have to be extremely stock specific in
these areas.
Markets: The way forward
It is extremely important to know what base you are working on. To give an example, people talk about markets climbing a wall of
worry, there is constant bad news and yet the market is going up. When does that happen? It happens when valuations are low. It
does not happen when valuations are high. So, this is one of the greatest takeaways that you can take from the stock market is
whether your outlook is good or bad what is your initial expectation of the outlook decides everything.
There are couples of other things which are important; if you look at the range of the PEs it has generally being between 12 and
20. Thirdly, everybody assumes that India will go up at around 15, maybe 20% per annum in EPS growth year after year. I want to
mention that there have been long periods when the EPS has been flat.
When we look at the dreaded times, you had dreaded times in ’89-90 and ’96 to ’98 and in 2000 to 2003. So you focus on these
periods – politics was bad, global events were negative; INR fiscal deficit and current account deficit were all bad. Do not pay so
much attention to interest and inflation rates because these are only symptoms, these are not causes.
I will take only one example of a period, if you take ’88 to ’91 period – you had four Prime Ministers in four years, politics was bad,
there was balance-of-payments (BOP) crises and inflation, interest rates, it was a problem all around. So, when you are talking
about today you should look at these different periods that we had in the past. That’s the game of the stock market.
Similarly, we had periods like that in ’96-99, where at a time in the Bull Run you think that whatever you touch turns gold and this
is exactly the opposite - whatever you touch seems not to do well. This is what summarizes entire section.
If you look at the roles; these are you current account deficit, the fiscal deficit and INR. All three seem to move together, and you
have these pink periods and green periods. In the midst of the two pink periods in the middle there is a green period also. What is
amazing about India is that all three move together and when you feel the things are the worst in INR fisc and CAD and just within
three-four years maybe sometimes within two years all three against are doing well together. This is the crux and the nature of the
Indian markets.
India’s growth is extremely closely related to reforms. If you look at Indian demographics and what you will see in terms of the
various consumer durables, it is fantastic as unmatched in the world, so you will get your time. Similarly, if you look at the wealth
effect in India in terms of realty and gold, one of the reasons people in India at the retail level have not got into the markets is
realty, gold have given as much or even superior returns to stock market.
So when you look at now versus ten years back – there are very few strikes to do with onion prices, inflation and so on because
basically people are far wealthier than before, on average.
_PAGEBREAK_
Tips on personal investing
There are multiple sectors which are set for high compound growth like organized retail, air conditioners, home mortgages, cars,
digital TV and so on, major infrastructure expansion plans. If I look at investing over any time period, there are actually three
conceptual boxes.
One is what are the sectors which are going to blow out in demand? Second is which are the regulatory catalysts and third are
there any companies which can scale irrespective of what happens in the environment? I have just populated this in terms of
what happens in 2015. But essentially these are three boxes to invest in.
We must not forget that the US has engaged with its problems and we have not. One of the biggest problems of India is rupee
because foreigners lose money when the rupee moves against you. Also, the better the US keeps doing in terms of the dollar, the
more we suffer.
Certain investment takeaways for personal investing, one is there is a huge speculative position being built up in so called
defensives whether it is US bonds, gold or FMCG. These could unwind with equal destruction. On the other hand, highly levered
stocks may not have the staying power till the cycle recovers. So while theoretically it seems like huge beta, will they have the
staying power till then? Because when you look at PEs, the valuation multiples, are they masking the wrong EPS in the first
place?
Third, somebody asked me should I own some gold? I learnt this from my family members, none of them are into finance, is that
you should have at least a little bit in different asset classes if you are investing for the long-term, whether it is gold or property or
bond or forex, a little part of everything for security. Diversification is a key because the future is inherently predictable. Do not
double discount problems.
When you are saying there is a problem in Japan or China or Europe, isn’t it the same problem? It is ultimately the same problem;
it is the Europe problem which is causing China or the US problem. Instead, be sensitive to the remedial actions that emerge,
which can change the cycle. Look for stocks essentially which can double by 2015. Take a 2-3 year time frame without a very
high absolute downside.
The personal investing is all about; I am taking this from Kenichi Ohmae’s triangle in business strategy - what is the competitive
edge that you have which relates to the stock in question which the market is not looking at. In terms of what is the difference
between you and a great investor, there are basically three things.
One is how long a period that you have been investing. So time period is extremely important because when you are looking for a
multi-bagger, normally it is a high risk idea. Therefore you put a very small portion of your investment in it and the minute it goes
up then after that may be 6 months, 2 years you don’t find anything else.
The second thing is leveraging your convictions. How much money you have put in your conviction and the minute it goes wrong,
you think how quickly you

Bear or have
Bull: taken
Tips it out. Leveraging
to identify current your convictions both on the buy and sell
‘Topsy sidesituation
Turvy’ and there
forare two basis
traders may Buy Bharti Airtel, In
that you need to cover before you even start equity investing.
One is your financial security. If you are not financially secured please don’t be in the markets. Number two is emotional security.
If you are going through a bad patch in your personal life don’t be in the markets. It will completely spoil your judgment.
There are four pillars of modern life. A personal family relationship, personal health, something to keep the mind active and
minimal level of wealth base, four things if you take care, you should be fine as far as the markets are concerned.
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‘Topsy Turvy’ situation for traders may keep market

sideways
After a steep fall in past few weeks, Nifty 50 has entered in a sideways
zone and creating a “Topsy- Turvy” situation for traders.
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In spite of the rally on The Market Podcast | Reforms will
September 6, the Indian market overnight
market seemed to be (https://www.moneycontrol.com/new
market-podcast-reforms-will-only-
decoupled with its global
peers. Amid a trade war market-overnight-4411651.html)
de-escalation and an
easing unrest in Hong STAY UPDATED
Kong, the global market
rallied quite smartly from
the lower levels. But, the Indian market failed to perform with the same pace. And,
even the minor pullback rally on the back of positive news flows failed to change the
existing trend.
After a steep fall in the past few weeks, Nifty 50 has entered in a sideways zone and
TRENDING NEWS
created a “Topsy- Turvy” situation for traders. On the weekly chart, Nifty is trading in
the upward sloping channel that has been broken on the downside, but the follow up JioFiber vs Airtel vs
selling was missing. broadband offers
fare against
For the coming week, a big red candle of August (19-23) that has broken the channel
launch-how-jios-latest-
offer-fares-against- competition
competition-
will act as a signal candle. The high/low of the candle will decide the next move of the 4408621.html)
market. Two indecisive candles, followed by a signal candle indicating that once 10,850 launch-how-jios-latest-offer-fares-
against-competition-4408621.html)
trades on lower side, traders can expect a smooth journey till the low of signal candle
i.e. 10,637.15. A new round of selling is not ruled out below 10,637 that could take Nifty Chandrayaan 2 landing on Sept 7: Here's
all the way to 10,200 levels. creates history
watch-the-event-as-india-creates-history-
RELATED NEWS We are still trading below all major short term, as well 4409811.html)
Buy Bharti Airtel, Inverse Head as long term, moving averages. Any further pullback is Economy passengers can soon hire a
and Shoulder Pattern suggests likely to fizzle out in 11,175 - 11,200 zones where the 50- (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/buy- passengers-can-soon-hire-a-guide-to-
bharti-airtel-inverse-head-and- week exponential moving average is placed. help-board-air-india-ai- ights-
shoulder-pattern-suggests- 4410881.html)
4412561.html) NIFTY50 weekly
Week in 5 charts: Nifty regains
10,900; Sensex slips below 37K on improvements-fans-want-to-see-on-the-
weak GDP data next-apple-iphone-4410821.html)
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/week-
in-5-charts-nifty-regains-10900- IFA 2019: Asus ROG Phone 2 and gaming
sensex-slips-below-37k-on-
appearance
weak-gdp-data-4411301.html) (https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/techn
2019-asus-rog-phone-2-and-gaming-
The Market Podcast | Reforms laptop-with-300hz-display-make-an-
will only change sentiment, won't appearance-4408151.html)
boost market overnight
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/podcast/the-
market-podcast-reforms-will-
AROUND THE WEB
only-change-sentiment-wont-
utm_source=www.moneycontrol.com&utm_medium=referra
boost-market-overnight-
4411651.html)
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Earn Money Simply! Trading Strategy For
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ndia)
NIFTY50 daily Born Between 1960-19? Term Life

_Rs.2500)
(https://storiespace/How_To_Build_Wealth_With_1_Stock_Like_Th
On daily charts as well, Nifty is trading in clear downtrend with lower top and lower How To Build Wealth With 1 Stock Like
bottom formation. After breaking the upward sloping trend line, prices went back in They Did
(https://storiespace/How_To_Build_Weal
the channel but bulls seem to be lacking strength as prices fell again after making th_With_1_Stock_Like_They_Did)
lower top.
The RSI after trading in bearish zone for last few sessions has again entered in
sideways zone. The average directional index is sloping downwards and indicating
traders have to be prepared for range bound moves.
For upcoming week, we can expect Nifty to trade in the range of 10,850 and 11,200
with negative bias and high volatility. As it is always a prudent idea to go with the
trend, we believe that traders should be looking for selling opportunity at higher
levels. The 50 EMA on the weekly, as well as the daily, chart is placed in the range of
11,175 to 11,200, and it will be very difficult for the bulls to trade it on higher side.
Globally, the negative notion has cut down after US labour market data released an
addition in most jobs in the last four months. Along with this, the United States and
China being ready for trade talks is a big positive, and the global market witnessed
turn in the last two trading sessions. But, on the domestic front, things are not shaping
up in the taxation end as estimated by the government. In August, GST collections are
far lower than estimates.
Also, it looks difficult to meet out the disinvestment target. Hence, the overall lower-
expected tax collection is a big constraint for the government to provide stimulus for
this lacklustre economy. Subdued tax collections may not only hit the government
finances but also on meeting the fiscal deficit target. Therefore, selling on every rise
may be seen to the levels of 11,175 to 11,200.
The authorBear
id Senior Research
or Bull: Tips Analyst at Rudra Shares & Stock
to identify current Brokers.
‘Topsy Turvy’ situation for traders may Buy Bharti Airtel, In
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on
Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management.
Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any
investment decisions.
First Published on Sep 7, 2019 11:54 am
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Get The Best Health Plan For Cashless H T B ild W lth With 1 St k Lik
Buy Bharti Airtel, Inverse Head and Shoulder Pattern

suggests
Inverse Head and Shoulders patterns are an integral part of technical
analysis, but successful traders combine these techniques with technical
indicators and other forms of technical analysis to maximize their odds
of success.
Moneycontrol Contributor (https://api.whatsapp.com/send?
@moneycontrolcom (https://twitter.com/moneycontrolcom)
text=Buy
Bharti
Airtel,
Inverse
Head
and
Shoulder
Pattern growth Motor Vehicle Act
suggests
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/buy-
u=http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/
MUST LISTEN
bharti-bharti-
bharti-
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airtel-airtel-airtel-airtel-
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market overnight
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/new
Shabbir Kayyumi
market-overnight-4411651.html)
What is Inverse Head
and Shoulders Pattern?
STAY UPDATED
phase of Indian mkt keep market sideways Shoulder
Subscribe to our Daily Pattern su
Newsletter
The head and shoulders Enter Email address Submit
chart pattern is popular

and easy to spot. In Get Daily News on your Browser Enable
technical analysis, an
Inverse head and
TRENDING NEWS
shoulders pattern
describes a specific chart JioFiber vs Airtel vs
formation that projects a broadband offers
fare against
bearish-to-bullish trend launch-how-jios-latest-
competition
offer-fares-against-
reversal. Bharti Airtel competition-

4408621.html)
Why to Buy Bharti Airtel Watchlist Portfolio launch-how-jios-latest-offer-fares-
Message (//mmb.moneycontrol.com/forum-topics/market-view/bharti-airtel- against-competition-4408621.html)
1202.html)
Set Alert (//investmentwatch.moneycontrol.com/tracker.php? Chandrayaan 2 landing on Sept 7: Here's
package_id=1&sc_did=BTV&utm_source=IW_stocklink) how you can watch the event as India

creates history
NSELIVE
06 Sep, 2019 15:57 349.25 1.55 (0.45%)
4409811.html)
Volume 6274987 Todays L/H 345.10 354.00
Economy passengers can soon hire a
More
help-board-air-india-ai- ights-
(http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/telecommunicationsservice/bhartiairtel/BA08)
4410881.html)
(http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/stockpricequote/telecommunications-
service/bhartiairtel/BA08) Limited (BHARTIARTL)? the next Apple iPhone
improvements-fans-want-to-see-on-the-
next-apple-iphone-4410821.html)
An Inverse Head and Shoulders reversal pattern
(http://www.moneycontrol.com/elite/profile/shabbir-
forms after a down trend, and its completion marks IFA 2019: Asus ROG Phone 2 and gaming
kayyumi-7831> <img src=) a trend reversal to up trend. Inverse H&S patterns appearance
Shabbir are an integral part of technical analysis, but 2019-asus-rog-phone-2-and-gaming-

laptop-with-300hz-display-make-an-
Kayyum successful traders combine these techniques with appearance-4408151.html)
(http://www.moneycontrol.com/elite/profile/shabbir-
technical indicators and other forms of technical
kayyumi-7831.html) analysis to maximize their odds of success. In the AROUND THE WEB
Shabbir Kayyumi
Head of Technical & Derivative
standard Inverse head and shoulders pattern, we utm_source=www.moneycontrol.com&utm_medium=referra
Research|Narnolia Financial Advisors connect the high after the left shoulder with the
high created after the head. A trend line is drawn by
Buy Bharti Airtel, Inverse Head and
Shoulder Pattern suggests connecting these highest points of the two peaks,
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/stocks/buy-
which is called as “Neckline". This trend line is the
bharti-airtel-inverse-head-and-shoulder-
pattern-suggests-4412561.html) most important component of Inverse H& S pattern.
Relief rally may push Nifty towards 11,400;

Bharti Airtel is trading in an up move while forming
5 stocks to buy with 6-21% upside
Inverse Head &
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/relief- Shoulders pattern and this (https://storiespace/How_To_Build_Wealth_With_1_Stock_Like_Th
rally-may-push-nifty-towards-11400-5- How To Build Wealth With 1 Stock Like
emerging pattern will be completed on a close
stocks-to-buy-with-6-21-upside- They Did
4397161.html) above 367 marks. This stock is trading near strong (https://storiespace/How_To_Build_Weal
Cup & Handle pattern in Sun Pharma

resistance line standing around 367 levels which is th_With_1_Stock_Like_They_Did)
suggests buying opportunity - here's why tested multiple times earlier and also suggest a
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/markets/cup-
handle-pattern-in-sun-pharma-suggests- strong bullish bias to continue further after a
buying-opportunity-heres-why- breakout. A recent formation of Inverse Head and
4395761.html)
Shoulders classical pattern will give a breakout by
trading only above 367 marks. It suggests buying in
the stock for higher targets of 460. Volume will also add further insight while trading
these patterns. A decent volume participation while giving breakout will also give
support to Inverse H& S pattern.
Born Between 1960-75? Term Life
_Rs.2500)
Buy Signal:-
1. A decisive close above neckline (367) of Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern will give a
pattern breakout.
2. Prices must trade above short-term moving average 20 DMA which will define
bullish short-term trend.
3. Mid-term moving average 50 DMA defines mid-term trend is very well augur with
bulls as prices are sustained and trading above it.
4. A decent volume participation while pattern breakout will also give additional
confirmation.
Profit Booking
•Target as per Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern is calculated by adding height of head
(H) to neckline which comes to 460. However, one can book profits near previous
swing high which is around 420 levels.
•The entire bullish view negates on breaching of right shoulder on closing basis and
one should exit from long position. In case of Bharti Airtel it is placed around 321
levels.
Conclusion
•We recommend buying Bharti Airtel Limited (BHARTIARTL) above 367 levels with a
stop loss of 321 for higher targets of 460 as indicated in above chart.
The author is Head - Technical & Derivative Research, Narnolia Financial Advisors.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on

Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or its management.
Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any
investment decisions.
Get access to India's
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JioFiber vs Airtel vs
mandatory to ensure that men are able to pay alimony to their ex-spouses without Act: How Jio's latest
broadband offers
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to cover divorces as well.
launch-how-jios-latest-offer-fares-
While India still has among the lowest divorce rates, the numbers have doubled over against-competition-4408621.html)
the last one decade. As per Census 2011, there were 1,362,316 divorces in India. While Chandrayaan 2 landing on Sept 7: Here's
the number is low compared to other countries, it is still a significant number. creates history
If the average alimony amount per divorce stood at Rs 15 lakh, it is a whopping Rs 2.04 2-landing-on-sept-7-heres-how-you-can-
lakh crore in settlements itself for the 1.36 million divorces. Over and above that are 4409811.html)
the legal expenses and child support which would run into several lakhs of rupees. Economy passengers can soon hire a
It is estimated that the alimony payment amount in help-board-air-india-ai- ights-
4410881.html)
(http://www.moneycontrol.com/elite/profile/m-
India has risen by 35 percent over the last five to
saraswathy-7161> <img src=) seven years. Five improvements fans want to see on
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Divorce insurance: Is it time for Indians to The premium payable depends on the earning
secure alimony settlements?
capacity of the individual
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/divorce- and the income profile of
insurance-is-it-time-for-indians-to- the couple. There is usually a period of initial two to
secure-alimony-settlements-4412121.html)
three years during which a claim is not admissible.
Pink slips are coming: No mercy for poor
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(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/pink-
slips-are-coming-no-mercy-for-poor- lakh or 30 lakh could be offered. These would be
performers-at-india-inc-4367331.html) priced at less than Rs 15,000 per annum. If any
Here is how you can make your job individual seeks additional insurance, top-up plans
slowdown-proof
could be offered.
(https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/here-
is-how-you-can-make-your-job-
slowdown-proof-4317791.html) The amount and duration for which alimony is
payable depends on how long the marriage existed.
Marriages that last more than 10 years are even
entitled to get a lifelong alimony.
In India, there is no cap on the amount of alimony that can be sought by the wife. In
case of a lump-sum settlement, the amount could go up to one-third of the husband’s
net-worth.
With Indian couples being far more open to the idea of a divorce than a decade ago, it
is imperative that the financial costs will also be considered. Having insurance
products available for this purpose could help sort out the financial matters and help
the couple focus on other crucial matters including property division and child
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Bear or Bull - Tips To Identify Current Phase of Indian MKT

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