Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

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Soil erosion risk associated with climate change at Mantaro River basin,
Peruvian Andes
Sly W. Correa a, Carlos R. Mello b,⁎, Sin C. Chou c, Nilton Curi d, Lloyd D. Norton e,1
a
Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
b
Soil and Water Engineering, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
c
Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CPTEC/INPE, Brazil
d
Soil Science Department, Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil
e
Soil Science Graduate Program, Agronomy Department, Purdue University, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Soil degradation by water erosion has been accelerated by human activities. This process is aggravated in the
Received 12 June 2015 Andes region due to steep slopes, sparse vegetation cover, and sporadic but high intensity rainfall, which together
Received in revised form 29 June 2016 with a shallow soil depth, increases soil erosion risk. The objective of this study was to analyze the soil erosion
Accepted 5 July 2016
risk, associated with A1B climate change scenario over the twenty-first century, for the Mantaro River basin
Available online xxxx
(MRB), Peruvian Andes. The temporal analyses revealed maintenance of current soil erosion risk along the twen-
Keywords:
ty-first century in almost all the MRB, whose current risk is either “very severe” or “extremely severe”. At the sub-
Soil erosion and degradation basin level, for those located in the center and northern MRB, progressive increases were observed in the average
Global warming erosion rate by the end of this century, increasing the soil erosion risk. In sub-basins under greater influence of
Tropical Andes the Andes, this risk was classified as “moderate” and remained this way throughout the century, despite the in-
Soil erosion risk crease in rainfall erosive potential simulated for these. In annual terms, there was a significant trend of decreasing
GIS rainfall erosivity and increasing the concentration of rainfall simulated based on A1B climate change scenario. Be-
cause the A1B scenario affects rainfall erosivity mainly during the rainy season, this causes a risk to the environ-
mental sustainability and future agricultural activities.
© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
According to the German Council on Global Change (WBGU, 1994),
water erosion, is the most important type of soil degradation world-
wide, covering approximately 1.1 billion hectares (56% of the agricultur-
al areas of the world). In addition, the international scientific
community recognizes that soil erosion is a serious environmental
problem; however, it is difficult to determine its magnitude as well as
the economic and environmental consequences, especially under possi-
ble future climate changes.
According to Benites et al. (1993), soil erosion in Argentina, Bolivia,
Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay is responsible for an average of 46% of the
total extent of degraded soils by different erosion agents. According to
the Agricultural Land Development Agency of Japan (JALDA, 2003), ag-
ricultural productivity in South America has been decreased due to soil
erosion, which has been accelerating the degradation of natural
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: xinox010@gmail.com (S.W. Correa), crmello@deg.ufla.br
(C.R. Mello), chou@cptec.inpe.br (S.C. Chou), niiltcuri@dcs.ufla.br (N. Curi),
norton@purdue.edu (L.D. Norton).
1
Visiting researcher at Universidade Federal de Lavras, Lavras, MG, Brazil – CNPq
Scholarship.
resources in this region. The population of South America does not ex-
ceed 10% of the world population, but according to FAO/UNESCO
(1990), it is one of the richest regions in terms of natural resources,
possessing 14% of arable land, 46% of tropical forests, 31% of water re-
sources, and 50% of flora and fauna, worldwide.
“The Andes Cordillera” is located in the western South America,
consisting of rugged mountains and very steep relief plateaus. The
“Inter-Andean Valleys” are located among these mountains where agri-
cultural activity has been concentrated. Water erosion in these areas has
become a complex problem causing decrease on topsoil fertility. The
present study was conducted at Mantaro River basin, one of the most
productive Peruvian “Inter-Andean Valley” zones. According to the Geo-
physical Institute of Peru (IGP, 2005), the Mantaro River is considered
one of the most important rivers of the Peruvian Andes, due to its capac-
ity for electricity generation, and agricultural and livestock production.
According to Amézquita et al. (1998), Peru is one of the Andean
countries that have presented various problems associated with ero-
sion, wherein the first attempt to assess its occurrence was done by
Morales et al. (1977). Since then, there were the studies from Alegre
et al. (1990) to Romero (2005); however, there has been a scarcity of re-
search aimed at evaluating the character of soil erosion in the country.
Accelerated climate change has been recorded in recent decades. Ac-
cording to the IPCC (2013), the last three decades have been

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2016.07.003
0341-8162/© 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
successively warmer regarding the average global surface temperature.
The increase on temperature has been verified across the planet and has
been greatest at higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This
warming trend from 1956 to 2005 (0.13 [0.10–0.16] °C per decade) is
nearly twice that presented in the last 100 years (1906–2005). This in-
dicates a clear temperature increase trend in recent decades, with 2014
claiming to be the warmest year since weather records began.
Climate changes are causing more warming at more elevated regions
than at the lower ones due to snow cover loss, which leads to a reduction
in albedo and increase in solar radiation absorption at the surface (Giorgi
et al., 1997). Thus, according to Bradley et al. (2006) and Ramirez et al.
(2001), several modeling and projections studies indicate that many gla-
ciers in lower altitudes of the Andes can disappear completely in the next
20 years, with the 0 °C point displacement to higher altitudes. This situ-
ation places Peru in a highly vulnerable condition, considering that 70%
of the tropical mountain glaciers in the world are located in Peru.
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), developed by Wischmeier and
Smith (1978), was a pioneer model in an attempt to predict soil erosion, to
produce soil erosion risk mapping, and for supporting soil conservation
practices. Despite the empirical structure used in this model and in its re-
vised version (RUSLE), the model has been applied to basins or regions
that have database restrictions for calibration and validation with other
models which are process based type (Beskow et al., 2009; Oliveira et al.,
2014; Durães and Mello, 2014; Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
The RUSLE model contains significant improvements in the estima-
tion of the passive factors associated with soil erosion, especially the to-
pographic factor, and has been applied to study the climate change
impacts on soil erosion (Segura et al., 2014; Mello et al., 2015). RUSLE
is a parametric and empirical model, based on the most relevant vari-
ables for the water erosion process (Renard and Freimund, 1994). This
model has been already tested and validated in various soil, climate,
and agronomic management conditions (Mitasova et al., 1996; Tiwari
et al., 2000; Amore et al., 2004; Beskow et al., 2009; Segura et al.,
2014; Li et al., 2014; Oliveira et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015; Ochoa et
al., 2016). Most of these studies have shown reasonable performance
in the qualitative characterization of the soil erosion risk, especially
when it is integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS), en-
abling consistent improvements in its performance. Despite of limita-
tions with RUSLE, it is possible to highlight a methodological evolution
associated with the topographic factor estimates and the use of a map
algebra tool to overlay the layers of the equation factors (Lu et al.,
2004; Zhou et al., 2008; Kouli et al., 2009; Beskow et al., 2009;
Parveen and Kumar, 2012; Rodriguez and Suarez, 2012; Segura et al.,
2014; Tang et al., 2015).
This study aims at offering unique contribution to Mantaro river
basin, a typical basin located in the tropical Andes, whose glaciers are
highly vulnerable to climate change. The basin is part of the headwaters
of the largest river basin in the world, the Amazon River. Despite the dif-
ficulty recognized with some databases due to the lack of minimally in-
vestigative studies or hydro-climatic monitoring, the results of this
study have significant potential to motivate further studies and to
alert on the water erosion problem linked to climate change in one of
the most sensitive regions of the world from both environmental and
socio-economic points of view.
It is understood that the capacity of rain to generate erosion is the
main factor affected by climate change, and its simulation shows a rea-
sonable degree of acceptance (Nearing, 2001; Segura et al., 2014; Mello
et al., 2015). In this context, the objective of this study was to assess the
soil erosion risk, at the Mantaro river basin located in the Peruvian Andes.
2. Material and methods
2.1. General characteristics of the Mantaro River basin, Peruvian Andes
The Mantaro River basin (MRB) is located in central Peru, between
the latitudes 10°34′30″S and 13°35′30″S and longitudes 73°55′00″W
111
and 76°40′30″W, with most of its area included into the Peruvian Trop-
ical Andes, making up part of the Amazon River basin (Fig. 1a). MRB has
a total area of 34,544 km2 and has the highest population density of the
“Sierra of Peru” (IGP, 2005). The Mantaro River is of great importance
for the country as it produces 35% of all electric energy as well as its po-
tential for agricultural and livestock production.
In geomorphological terms, MRB is divided into agro-ecological re-
gions, according to IGP (2005), whose names have origin in the Inca's
language Quechua: “Janca” (“white” in reference to the permanent ice
on the mountains), “Puna” (“evil that comes from the mountain”),
“Suni” (“wide land”), “Quechua” (“temperate climate land”), “Yunga”
(“hot valley”) and “Selva Alta” (“high forest”) (Fig. 1d). Throughout
the text, we have chosen to use the names from the original Quechua
language to avoid misunderstanding about their meanings. In addition
to this agro-ecological division, MRB can also be divided into sub-basins,
as shown in Fig. 1c. The analyses of the results will be presented on both
spatial scales, agro-ecological regions and sub-basins, since different im-
pacts may be caused given the different altitude conditions existing in
MRB.
Correa (2015) described MRB as part of the Amazon River basin,
whose main spring is in Lake Junín. The first river section flows from
Lake Junín up to the “Pongo de Pahuanca”. The second section flows
from “Pongo de Pahuanca” to the mouth in the Apurimac River, forming
the Ene River. In this section, we have the main Peruvian hydroelectric
facilities (“Santiago Antunez Mayolo” and “Restitución”), known as
the “Mantaro Complex”.
2.2. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)
The Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is an empirical model to pre-
dict the average annual soil loss generated by rainfall impact and shal-
low flow runoff. According to Farrish et al. (1993), the application of
this equation in steep slope areas has limitations. According to Hoyos
(2005); Durães and Mello (2014), Oliveira et al. (2014) and Mello et
al. (2016) the RUSLE is a more suitable model for watersheds than
USLE by providing fundamental revisions to characterize the LS topo-
graphic factor. Thus, the main advantage is related to adjust the topo-
graphic factor for various slope conditions, considering the
contribution from upstream to downstream areas by means of a flow
accumulation map.
The RUSLE is based on USLE equation, with reformulation of the to-
pographic factor estimates according to Renard et al. (1997):
A ¼ R  K  LS  C  P ð1Þ
where: A is the average annual soil loss (t ha−1 yr−1), R is the average
annual rainfall erosivity (MJ mm ha−1 h−1 yr−1), K is the soil erodibility
factor (t h MJ−1 mm−1), LS corresponds to the dimensionless factors as-
sociated with slope-length and slope-steepness, respectively, C and P
are factors of vegetation cover and soil conservation practices, both
dimensionless.
The soil erosion risk was classified according to the criteria adopted
by Li et al. (2014) and Tang et al. (2015), which is shown in Table 1.
2.3. Rainfall erosivity behavior over the twenty-first century at the Mantaro
River basin, Peruvian Andes
In order to calculate rainfall erosivity (R-factor), precipitation data
were simulated with a temporal resolution of 3 h and the average
monthly rainfall were used, in a grid with a spatial resolution of 20 km
covering the entire MRB, a total of 420 points (Fig. 1c). These datasets
comprise the downscaling to 20-km resolution from the global
HadCM3 A1B emission scenario. This is a dynamical downscaling done
by the regional climate Eta-CPTEC model over South America (Chou et
al., 2014) for the period of 1961–1990, considered as “present climate”,
and for the periods of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, known
112 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 1. Location of MRB in the Amazon River basin (a), in Peru (b), grid for downscaling with the ETA-CPTEC/HadCM3 model and sub-basins (c), and agro-ecological regions (d).

as future “time slices” and were available by the “Centro de Previsão do
Tempo e Clima/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias” (CPTEC/INPE)
(Chou et al., 2014). The climate change scenario, according to
Nakicenovic et al. (2000), describes a rapid economic growth, with little
population growth (it considers that the world population will decrease
from the middle of this century) and development of efficient technol-
ogies as basic references.
The Mantaro River Basin is located in a region of steep topography
and formed by narrow valleys. The use of high spatial and temporal res-
olution simulations of climate is appropriate in order to capture the
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 113

Table 1 However, the R-factor would be underestimated, as maximum in-

Soil erosion risk classification based on average erosion rate estimated
by RUSLE (Li et al., 2014; Tang et al., 2015).
Soil loss (A)
(t ha−1 year−1) Erosion risk
b5 Very low
5–25 Low
25–50 Moderate
50–80 Severe
80–150 Very severe
N150 Extremely severe
precipitation distribution in more detail. Precipitation has received con-
tribution from local orographic effects which have been presented in a
coarse resolution. The 20-km resolution Eta model simulations were
the highest resolution of future climate change projections available at
three-hour interval for the region. This higher temporal frequency is
suitable to capture heavy rainfall rates. In addition, the approximately
horizontal surfaces of the vertical coordinate of the Eta model is suitable
to resolve the air circulation around steep mountains such as the Andes
Cordillera, as shown by Figueroa et al. (1995). The simulations of the
present climate produced by the 20-km resolution Eta-HadCM3 have
shown to capture better the extreme rainfall values, as improvement
over the coarser available dataset. This downscaling at 20-km has
been applied to assess the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian
hydropower production (Lima et al., 2014).
It is important to highlight that to estimate the R-factor to run RUSLE
it is necessary long-term rainfall series, at least 20 years (Mello et al.,
2013). In this study, it was taken into account time series of 30 years be-
tween 1961 and 1990, in order to estimate more representative values
of R-factor.
The R-factor calculation was based on the EI3h factor since the lowest
temporal resolution simulated was 3 h. For this, the following variables
were analyzed: event duration, accumulated precipitation in the event,
average rainfall intensity per event, rainfall energy per depth of rain,
total energy of the rain, and maximum intensity of rain in 3 consecutive
hours. Thus, the following equations were applied for EI3h calculation
(Wischmeier and Smith, 1978):
−1
Ec ¼ 0:1191 þ 0:0873  Log10  It It b76 mm h
−1
Ec ¼ 0:283 It N76 mm h
tensity in 3 h is less than 30-minute intensity, as originally recognized
by Wischmeier and Smith (1978). Thus, it is necessary to apply a com-
plementary methodology for estimation of this factor. However, there
are no weather stations with historical series in MRB to enable the
study of rainfall erosivity following its original concept. In this context,
we applied a relationship existing between the Modified Fourier Index
(MFIm), calculated with basis on the average monthly rainfall for each
time slice, and the average monthly rainfall erosivity (Eq. 6). This
equation was proposed by Sonder et al. (2002) for the Colombian
Andes and it was applied in this study because of similar geomorpholog-
ical conditions between the two studied regions (both in Tropical Andes
Cordillera).
Rm ¼ 161  ðMF ImÞ0:552 ð6Þ
Thus, for each climate simulation grid point (Fig. 1c), the R-factor
was calculated based on the average between the values generated by
Eqs. 5 and 6. Having estimated the R-factor for each time slice and for
each one of the 420 points, R-factor maps were generated based on a
geostatistical approach by ordinary kriging.
In order to analyze the behavior of rainfall erosivity (EI3h) over time,
the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945) was applied to statistically analyze
if there is significant trend in these data throughout the century. Fur-
thermore, the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) for MRB was
also evaluated for this purpose, since it reveals the behavior of rainfall
concentration, especially important for regions with seasonal or semi-
arid climate. Its original concept was developed by Oliver (1980) in an
attempt to define the temporal variability of rainfall distribution. The
theoretical limits range from 8.3 (uniform pluvial regime) to 100, if
the rainfall is concentrated in a month (irregular pluvial regime). Ac-
cording to Mello et al. (2015), the PCI is important for analysis of erosive
potential of rain, since it can characterize a more active dynamic effect
of climate change on erosive potential of rainfall, being a complementa-
ry index. Its calculation is given by:
X
12
pi 2
i¼1
PCIð%Þ ¼ !2  100 ð7Þ
ð2Þ X
12
pi
i¼1
ð3Þ

where: pi is the precipitation of the month i, in mm, obtained on the

where Ec is the rainfall energy per hectare-mm (MJ ha−1 mm−1) and It
basis of the weather simulations.
is the average rainfall intensity (mm h−1). The total energy of rainfall
during the period of the storm (Et), in MJ ha−1, is calculated using the
2.4. Soil map to determine K-factor for MRB, Peruvian Andes
following relationship:
The Leptosols, which predominate in the studied region, are very
Et ¼ Ec  ΔP ð4Þ
stony, can be dystrophic (base saturation b 50%) or eutrophic (base sat-
uration ≥ 50%), have average clay content of 23% and tend to occur
where: ΔP is the total amount of rain in the event, in mm.
mainly in slopes varying from 20 to 50% (IGP, 2005). The association
The R-factor, described by Renard and Freimund (1994), consists of
of shallow soils and hilly topography results in very fragile and unstable
the average annual sum of the individual values EI30’ over long periods
systems and therefore, highly vulnerability to erosion.
of time (minimum 15 years for USLE or RUSLE application). For the con-
The Regosols in this region are medium textured (average clay con-
ditions of this study, R-factor was considered, in a first moment, as the
tent of 20%), deeper than the Leptosols and occur in various topographic
average annual sum of the individual EI3h values, as applied by
positions (IGP, 2005). They constitute relatively more stable system in
Vrieling et al. (2010). Thus, we have:
comparison with the Leptosols, with better infiltration capacity (IGP,
! 2005). They have limited agricultural potential, but are effective in
X
n X
m
ðE3h Þi  ðI3h Þi groundwater recharge (IGP, 2005).
j¼1 i¼1 j The Cambisols, situated at the eastern part of the MRB, are very stony
R¼ ð5Þ
n in the surface, medium textured (average clay content of 17%) and gen-
erally occur in slopes ranging from 50 to 100% (IGP, 2005). In addition,
where: R is expressed in MJ mm (ha h year)−1, m is the number of in- they are characterized by a shallow depth. Thus, the Cambisols in MRB
dividual precipitation events in a given year j, and n is the number of are very susceptible to erosion. The natural soil fertility is very low,
years evaluated, in the present case, 30 years (time slices). sometimes with high aluminum saturation.
114 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
The Ministry of Agriculture of Peru (MINAG, 1978) developed an
edaphologic study in areas with good agricultural potential in MRB,
known as “Mantaro River Agricultural Valley” (MRAV). This zone has
appropriate soils and climatic characteristics for agricultural activity, it
is located in the middle part of the basin, with altitudes ranging from
3200 to 3800 m and topography varying from flat to undulate with
smooth gradients of average magnitude, and an annual rainfall varying
between 670 and 895 mm. This study ranked the MRAV soils into six
groups and different sub-groups. Fig. 2a presents the soil map in groups
and sub-groups for MRAV and Fig. 2b, the soil map for MRB applied in
this study.
Tables 2, 3 and 4 show, respectively, particle size distribution and or-
ganic soil matter values for MRAV soils, permeability and soil structure
codes, which allows to an estimate of the K-factor based on the follow-
ing equations (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978).
½ð2:1  M1:14  10‐4  ð12−SOMÞ þ 3:25  ðs−2Þ þ 2:5  ðp−3Þ
K¼
100
 0:1318
where: K is the soil erodibility factor (t·h·MJ−1·mm−1); SOM corre-
sponds to the soil organic matter content (%); s is the soil structure
code; p is the soil permeability code; and M is the factor calculated as
the product of the soil particle size fractions between 0.002 and
0.1 mm, by the following equation:
M ¼ ½100−%clay  ½%silt þ %veryfinesand
Fig. 2. Soil map in groups and sub-groups for MRAV (a) and the soil map for MRB, Peruvian Andes (b).
2.5. LS-factor for MBR, Peruvian Andes
The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is the basic reference for studies re-
lated to the LS-factor. For the MRB, the DEM was based on “Shuttle Radar
Topographic Mission” images (NASA/SRTM), with a spatial resolution of
30 m, and is presented in Fig. 3a, as well as average annual rainfall isohyets.
Authors such as Moore and Wilson (1992), Hickey et al. (1994), Bolton
et al. (1995), Desmet and Govers (1996), Mitasova et al. (1996) and
Biesemans (1997) developed flow algorithms based on DEMs to deter-
mine the accumulated surface flow length, and therefore, the LS-factor.
These new relationships based on the Unit Stream Power Theory include
the influence of flow convergence and divergence. Thus, the use of algo-
rithms associated with Geographical Information System (GIS), for calcu-
lating the LS factor, is a great improvement for RUSLE application.
Mitasova et al. (1996) developed an equation for estimating the LS-
factor with supporting of a GIS, which was applied by Pelton et al.
(2012) and Ashiagbor et al. (2013), incorporating the impact from
flow convergence, replacing the slope length (L) by the upstream tribu-
tary area per unit of width. The area contribution concept requires the
ð8Þ
generation of a cumulative flow map. For each pixel, the slope, the
flow direction and the amount of accumulated flow lines upstream of
that pixel, are calculated. Thus, the methodology applied in this study
to obtain the LS-factor based on DEM was that developed by Pelton et
al. (2012), with the support of map algebra, thus allowing the applica-
tion of the equation developed by Mitasova et al. (1996):
 m  n
ðFlowaccumulationÞ  ðCellsizeÞ sinðSlopeÞ
LS ¼ ðm þ 1Þ  
22:13 0:0896
ð9Þ ð10Þ
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 115

Table 2 Table 4
Particle size distribution (%) and SOM (%) for MRAV soils. Soil structure codes.
Source: MINAG (1978).
Size limits
Series Group Sub-group Sand Clay Silt SOM Code Structure class (mm)

Huancayo Hn 1 III a 51.8 15.2 33.0 2.0 4 Platy, prismatic, columnar, blocky and very coarse N10
Chamiseria Cha2 VI a 34.8 23.2 42.0 4.3 granular
Azapampa Aa 3 VI d 24.8 30.2 45.0 3.0 3 Medium and coarse granular 2–10
Palian Pl 4 VI d 50.8 14.2 35.0 2.2 2 Fine granular 1–2
San Pedro Pd 5 IV a 66.8 10.2 23.0 1.9 1 Very fine granular b1
Sapallanga Sp6 III a 50.8 17.2 32.0 1.7
Maravilca Mi 7 I c 58.8 8.2 33.0 1.1
Huayao Ha 8 IV a 40.8 18.2 41.0 3.4 Estimation of the average annual C factor was conducted based on
Huayna Capac Hc 9 VI d 60.8 9.2 30.0 2.9 the description of different types of vegetation existing in MRB, which
Apata Ap 10 III b 70.8 4.2 25.0 1.1
Huacho He 11 VI c 22.8 26.2 51.0 6.1
are shown in Fig. 3d. Table 5 shows the land uses and C factor values
Huachac Hua 12 IV c 47.2 22.6 30.2 3.2 adopted for MRB based on published research.
Pilcomayo Py 15 I a 26.6 46.4 27.0 2.3 According to McCool et al. (1987), the P-factor is less reliable and
Seco Se 16 III a 38.6 14.4 47.0 1.5 represents how the surface influences the hydraulic flow and it was in-
Yanamuclo Ym 17 III a 37.0 23.4 39.6 2.1
corporated to the model to reflect the soil conservation edaphic and me-
San Jerónimo Je 18 III a 52.6 17.8 29.6 2.1
Hualhuas Hs 19 III a 47.4 19.0 33.6 2.3 chanical practices. In MRB, there is no reference about conservation
Huamancaca Hu 20 I a 30.2 39.4 30.4 1.1 practices that have been adopted, besides the fact that in most of the
Ahuac Ah 21 V b 26.6 37.8 35.6 1.2 basin, extensive grazing is prevalent. Thus, in this study, the most criti-
Mantaro Ma 22 II b 60.8 9.2 30.0 3.6 cal value (1) was adopted, which means no conservation practices,
Chicche Chi 23 VI a 40.6 13.2 46.2 6.4
MRAV included.
Orcotuna Or 25 I a 30.6 29.4 40.0 3.0
Chupaca Chu 26 III c 31.6 33.4 35.0 2.3
Pancan Pn 27 III a 24.8 30.2 45.0 1.9
Paucar Pr 28 V c 31.8 23.3 44.9 4.6 3. Results and discussion
Jauja Ja 29 IV b 8.8 42.2 49.0 1.1
Yauli Ya 30 III b 46.8 19.2 34.0 1.6
3.1. Spatial and temporal behavior of rainfall erosivity in MRB, Peruvian Andes
Huertas Hr 31 III a 39.8 21.2 39.0 1.4
Mito Mo 32 II b 30.0 15.5 54.5 1.6
La Libertad Ll 40 IV b 31.7 25.2 43.1 4.6 Maps of the R-factor and for the spatial differences between consec-
Sicaya Si 42 III e 46.7 21.2 32.1 2.1 utive time slices were made and they allow to verify how the R-factor
Concepción Co 48 VI a 42.8 19.2 38.0 2.9
behaviors throughout the 21st Century, which means how the rainfall
Quispic Qu 49 V a 38.8 18.5 42.7 1.5
Jallanna Jm 50 III b 55.8 15.2 29.0 3.2
erosion power will be affected by the climate changes according to
Lunahuaná Lu 51 VI a 58.8 17.2 24.0 5.9 A1B scenario and the HadCM3-ETA/CPTEC model simulation. These
Cunas Cu 52 III e 53.8 17.2 29.0 6.4 maps are presented in Fig. 4 (a – present climate; b - 2011–2040; c -
Palias Pa 53 VI e 66.8 7.2 26.0 4.0 2041–2070; d - 2071–2099). For the present climate, there is a trend
San Luis Ls 54 VI e 52.8 9.2 38.0 5.6
of higher R-factor in MRB's central and northwest regions, although
there are zones with greater values in the east, as in the agro-ecological
region “Selva Alta”. R-factor values were sub-divided into ranges,
where: [Flow Accumulation] · [Cell size] corresponds to the upstream predominating values between 1500 and 2000 MJ mm (ha h y)−1 for
tributary area per unit of width (m); (Slope) is the slope in degrees; MRB, although there are regions with values N2500 MJ mm
m and n are empirical coefficients that depend on flow type, for which (ha h y)−1, especially in the central zone of the basin (“Yunga”, “Que-
we used the values 0.4 and 1.4, respectively (De Kort, 2013). Fig. 3b pre- chua” and “Puna” agro-ecological regions). In a sub-basin spatial con-
sents the slope map and Fig. 3c, the accumulated flow for MRB, which text, the highest simulated values are associated with sub-basins
corresponds to the base maps for obtaining the LS-factor. According to (from 12 to 19, see Fig. 1c) located in the eastern central region. Howev-
De Kort (2013), the RUSLE model, based on this approach for the LS-fac- er, the greatest rainfall erosive potential was simulated for the Viscatan
tor, is classified as “RUSLE3D”. sub-basin (№ 22, located in “Selva Alta” agro-ecological region), which
can be explained based on the warmer and moist weather of this agro-
ecological region (altitude b2000 m), which is within Amazon
2.6. C- and P-factors determination for MRB, Peruvian Andes rainforest region (Mello et al., 2013). Analyzing the sequence of maps
in Fig. 4, it is clear a prediction of R-factor reduction over the century
The C-factor refers to the effect of cover on the reduction of soil ero- throughout most of MRB, showing a rainfall erosive power reduction
sion. Thus, in RUSLE, it has values between zero (0) and one (1), and the trend if an annual time scale is to be considered.
latter corresponds to areas without vegetation (bare soils). With the in- Evaluating the R-factor behavior to consecutive spatial differences
crease of vegetation density, the C value tends to decrease, reducing the between time slices, it can be seen that the sub-basins “Santa Ana”,
effect of rainfall drops on the ground. “Alloc Huarco” and “Youli” (№ 5, 6 and 7 -. Fig. 1c) showed a trend of

Table 3
Soil permeability codes.

Code Classification Particle size distribution Saturated hydraulic conductivity (cm/h)

6 Very slow Silty clay, clay b0.125

5 Slow Silty, clay loamy, sandy clay 0.125–0.5
4 Moderately slow Sandy clay loam, clay loam 0.5–2.0
3 Moderate Loam, silt loam 2.0–6.0
2 Moderately fast Sandy clay, sandy loam 6.0–12.5
1 Very fast Sand N12.5
116 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 3. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (a), maps of slope (b), accumulated flow (c) and land use (d) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
Table 5
Land use and the respective C-factor values for MRB.
Land use Reference
Agricultural Land Delgado and Vasques (1997)
Agriculture/Secondary Woods Delgado and Vasques (1997)
Wetland IGP (2005)
Wet Mountain Grove IGP (2005)
Wet Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005)
Semiarid Temperate Scrubland IGP (2005)
Semi-hot Sub-humid Scrub IGP (2005)
Sub-humid Temperate Scrub IGP (2005)
Nival (glacial) IGP (2005)
High Andean Grassland IGP (2005)
Tundra IGP (2005)
consecutive R-factor increases over the twenty-first century, being
more expressed in the most recent time slices. “Cunas” sub-basin (№
13 – Fig. 1c), showed a decrease in the transition from present climate
for the first time slice (Fig. 5a, b); however, from the latter until the
end of the century, there are consecutive increases which are N 10% in
relation to the present climate. The significant increase in R-factor
values for the Northern, passing through the Central and Southwestern
MRB, from the second to the third time slices, with impacts on “Ichu”
(№ 21), “Huarpa” (№ 23), “Achamayo” (№ 12), “Shullcas” (no 14) and
“Viscatan” (№ 22) sub-basins, is also noteworthy. These sub-basins pre-
sented this increase in behavior compared to other areas of MRB since in
a large area of the MRB, such as the south central, had consecutive R-fac-
tor reductions. This prevailing trend of gradual erosive potential reduc-
tion throughout the century is mainly due to a reduction of the total
precipitation across the basin, simulated based on the A1B climate
change scenario by Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 model.
Soil erosion in the highest mountains of the planet can be generated
not only by the rainfall (water erosion) but also by the snowfall accumu-
lated over the ground, which includes avalanches and snow gliding phe-
nomena. Both active factors have been little studied due to the difficulty
to implement experimental areas for field monitoring. Meusburger et al.
(2014) studied the snow gliding erosion by monitoring a watershed in
the Swiss Alpes along with application of the RUSLE model. As we
know, RUSLE is capable of estimating erosion caused by raindrops. The
cited authors obtained a very good correlation between the snow glid-
ing erosion and the results estimated by RUSLE, demonstrating that al-
though this model had not been designed for running by other active
factors, like snow or wind, its outputs have been plausible for both pat-
tern and quantitative soil losses.
Meusburger et al. (2014) carried out their study in a temperate
mountainous watershed, in which snowfall is responsible for 30% of an-
nual precipitation. For Peruvian Andes, a tropical high mountain system,
the snowfall is much lesser than in the Alpes and the climate simula-
tions demonstrated that the climate in MRB over the 21st century
tends to become drier than nowadays. This means that soil erosion
caused by snow gliding or avalanches in this basin, in the future, has
low probability of occurrence. Thus, the RUSLE model is the most indi-
cated tool for estimating soil erosion behavior in MRB for the present
and future climates as the main active factor for soil erosion in this
basin is the rainfall.
R-factor to present climate and simulated time slices for each agro-
ecological regions and sub-basins were quantified as well as the consec-
utive percentage differences throughout the 21st Century. These data
were presented in column graphics allowing to compare numerically
the regions and sub-basins throughout the 21st Century (Fig. 5). The
sub-basins that were more affected were at higher altitudes, such as
those located in the north (№ 1 to 9, Fig. 1c), presented an increasing
R-factor trend. This behavior is related to the increase in total precipita-
tion with the intensification of global warming and the increase of the
permanent ice cap melting rate, moving the freezing line (0 °C) to a
117
Plant cover Coverage % C-factor
0.45
0.93
Herbaceous plants 80 0.12
75–40, 90–70 NC 0.20
Scrubland 60 0.38
Scrubland 40 0.90
Scrubland 60 0.38
Scrubland 20 0.20
1.00
Herbaceous plants 20 0.00
Herbaceous plants 40 0.30
greater altitude. This effect has been increasingly intensified in areas
of tropical glaciers around the world, mainly in tropical Andes.
The largest decreases between consecutive periods of rainfall erosive
potential take place in the transition from the present climate for the
first time slice (2010–2040), except for “Janca” agro-ecological region
and in the mentioned sub-basins located in the northern MRB (Fig.
5b). “Selta Alta” region (precisely Viscatan sub-basin) presents the
greatest reduction (9% lower than that observed to present climate).
Moreover, for MRB as a whole and also for “Sunni”, “Quechua” and
“Yunga” regions, there were greater decreases in R-factor relative to
the present climate by the end of the century, although at a slower
rate when analyzing the last two time slices. However, in “Janca”,
“Puna” and, more consistently, in “Selva Alta” agro-ecological regions,
there is an increase of the rainfall erosive potential in the last time
slice (2071–2098) compared to the previous one, similar to that
which was found for the sub-basins in the northern of MRB.
A temporal trend analysis of annual rainfall erosivity given by EI3h
and PCI indexes, for MRB as a whole, given by the average of all simula-
tion grid points, is important to demonstrate if these indexes will pres-
ent significant trend (positive or negative) throughout the 21st Century.
For that, trend graphics were developed and Mann-Kendall test was ap-
plied for the cited variables (Fig. 6). A negative and significant statistical
trend by the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test at a significance level of 5%
(z = − 3.68) was obtained. The opposite behavior could be found for
PCI. The temporal series for PCI showed a significant upward trend, ac-
cording to M-K test (z = 3.88). Thus, there is a clear declining trend in
annual rainfall erosivity in MRB based at an annual scale. However, it ap-
pears that there is an increase of its variability over time, especially from
the second time slice, which is an important feature of the climate
change effects on rainfall patterns. Beyond this, the statistically signifi-
cant increase in PCI shows an important increase of erosive potential
during the rainy season of the year, as was reported for southeastern
Brazil by Mello et al. (2015). In addition, the concentration of rainfall
can mean an increase in erosive power during the rainy season or
even for isolated precipitation events, including the sub-basins, with a
marked reduction in rainfall erosivity. These considerations need to be
jointly analyzed when it comes to the climate change impacts on the
rainfall erosive power, as there is considerable uncertainty associated
with these indicators under the influence of global warming.
3.2. Spatial distribution of RUSLE passive factors for MRB, Peruvian Andes
In this topic, it is presented the spatial distribution of RUSLE passive
elements, beginning with the LS-factor, which was developed with basis
on RUSLE3D for MRB. The greatest values of this factor are in the east-
central region of the basin (Fig. 7a), specifically in “San Fernando”,
“Pariahuanca”, “Huanchuy”, “Paraiso”, “Viscatan” sub-basins and in the
southern part of “Microcuencas” sub-basin (see Fig. 1c). In terms of
the percentage area of MRB, LS-factor range from 5 to 50, representing
58% of the basin area. The values corresponding to the average and
118 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124

Fig. 4. R-factor map for the present climate (a) and spatial behavior of the changes for consecutive time slices (b, c, d) simulated for the XXI century in MRB, Peruvian Andes.
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 119

Fig. 5. Rainfall erosive potential (R-factor) for MRB agro-ecological regions and sub-basins, in Peruvian Andes, throughout the twenty-first century (a), and its variation in relation to the
previous period (b).

median are, respectively, 24.34 and 13.07. Based on this map, the MRB is sediment transport (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978). For these condi-
highly vulnerable to soil erosion, since this factor determines runoff tions, conservation linked to land use and surface protection are keys
conditions, especially its speed and hydraulic capacity of channels for to reducing the soil erosion risk.

Fig. 6. Temporal distribution of annual rainfall erosive potential (EI3h) (a) and of the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) (b) for MRB, Peruvian Andes, throughout the 21st century.
120 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
Fig. 7. Maps of LS-factor (a), K-factor (MRB highlighting MRAV soils) (b) and CP-factor (c) for MRB, Peruvian Andes.
The K-factor map, which demonstrates the natural soil vulnerability
to water erosion, was also developed. Based on this map, we can see the
sub-basins and agroecological regions of MRB with greater vulnerability
to erosion based on the soil erodibility. This kind information is impor-
tant as it helps supporting decision-making related to the soil use and
management. This map is shown in Fig. 7b for MRB, with a zoom for
MRAV. Its values vary from zero (water bodies) to 0.095, the latter cal-
culated for MRAV soils where there is a predominance of values N0.055.
In most part of MRB, the values are lesser than 0.045, which were esti-
mated according to soil information recommended by FAO-PNUMA-
UNESCO (1980)and FAO/UNESCO (1990), based on the main soils prop-
erties (IGP, 2005). The previously soils information for MRB include soils
with texture ranging from medium to sandy, shallow, and low natural
fertility, indicating high vulnerability to erosion, mainly for Leptosols
and Cambisols, which occupy predominantly Yunga and Puna agroeco-
logical regions, and San Fernando's neighborhood sub-basins. However,
it is important to emphasize the qualitative differences between the da-
tabases available for MRB soils in relation to those available for MRAV.
The latter provided much more information concerning soil erodibility.
CP-factor is another RUSLE passive element very important to un-
derstand the vulnerability of the basin to water erosion as it becomes
clear how the soils have been currently used, and helps to explain the
greatest part of the soil erosion rates estimated by the RUSLE. Its spatial
distribution is presented in the map of the Fig. 7c. In this map, the values
range from zero (0) for water bodies where there is no erosion, to one
(1) for bare soils, as can be observed in areas in the east and south of
MRB. It is possible to observe that the MRAV region has relatively higher
values, estimated based on the weighted average of the production
areas of the Valley and throughout the year as the land-uses are mostly
tubers, vegetables and cereals, and thus, greater exposure of soils
throughout much of the year. In sub-basins located at higher altitudes
of MRB there are relatively lesser values (0.13 to 0.2), as predominant
land uses are “Tundra” and “High Andean Grassland”, which are herba-
ceous plant and grass vegetation with a good ability to mitigate raindrop
impact, reducing the vulnerability of soil to erosion. It was also observed
that at higher altitudes of western MRB, there are greater CP-factor
values, in which small sized vegetation is associated with reduced bio-
mass accumulation due to low temperatures that restrict vegetation de-
velopment, and, consequently, reduce soil protection against raindrop
impact.
3.3. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB under climate change impacts, Peruvian
Andes
Using map algebra, RUSLE3D was run over the MRB comparing the
R-factor layer for the present climate to the 3 time slices simulated
based on A1B climate change scenario (Fig. 8). An average of 48.5% of
areas with erosion risk were classified as “Very Severe” and “Extremely
Severe” could be found with the simulations, both in MRB and in MRAV,
demonstrating that the basin is highly vulnerable to soil erosion for the
present climate conditions. Areas with greater erosion risk were located
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124 121

Fig. 8. Soil erosion risk maps for MRB for the present climate (a) and for the simulated time slices (2010–2040 - b; 2041 to 2070 – c; 2071–2098 - d).
122 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
in the east-central part of the basin, which had the greatest R-factor
(Fig. 4a), LS-factor (Fig. 7a), and significant bare-soil areas (Fig. 7c).
Only a small percentage of the MRB were simulated to increase over
the current soil erosion risk due to possible climate changes, having
been estimated with increments of 0.3%, 3.9% and 7.4% of the MRB
area for time slices 2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2098, respective-
ly. The areas that had simulated increase over past soil erosion risk were
associated with “Vilca” sub-basin, and lower parts of the “Yauli”, “Santa
Ana” and “Atoc Huarco” sub-basins (see Fig. 1c), as a result of consecu-
tive increases in the rainfall erosive potential in these sub-basins
(Fig. 4).
A continuous decrease can be seen in the average annual soil loss
until the end of the century in all agro-ecological regions and sub-ba-
sins, except for “Selva Alta”, which in the last period had a slight increase
of the risk compared to the previous period (Fig. 9a, b). As mentioned,
almost all the MRB, for the present climate, presents an “extremely se-
vere” risk for erosion. However, spatially, there are important behavior-
al differences. In the context of agro-ecological regions, “Janca”,
“Quechua”, “Yunga” and “Selva Alta” also have this same risk rating,
while “Suni” and “Puna” have a “very severe” risk. Examining the results
at the sub-basin level, those located in the northern MRB (“Ichu”, “San
Juan”, “Conocancha”, “Quisualcancha” and “Chinchaycocha”) have a
predicted “severe” risk, while “Colorado” sub-basin has a “moderate”
risk for current climate. These sub-basins are those for which the least
erosion risk was found, both for the present and for the future; however,
this was mainly linked to the behavior of CP-factor, which is low for
these sub-basins where the land use is predominantly dominated by
tundra (Fig. 7c). For sub-basins in eastern MRB (“Huanchuy”,
“Pariahuanca”, “San Fernando”, “Shullcas”, “Upamayu” and
“Microcuencas”), the erosion risk was classified as “extremely severe”
for both present climate and throughout the 21st century, which was
mainly associated with the LS- and CP-factors. Overall, the main soils
in these sub-basins are the Leptosols (Fig. 2b) and considering their
low effective depth, low natural soil fertility and very undulated to
mountainous slopes, it is easy to understand their high erosion suscep-
tibility. In the sub-basins “Achamayo”, “Yacuy” and “Paraíso”, the cur-
rent risk is “extremely severe”, but throughout the century, it is
reduced to “very severe”, because of the effect of rainfall erosion poten-
tial reduction in these sub-basins.
Fig. 9. Average annual soil loss distribution for agro-ecological regions (a) and sub-basins of MRB (b) and their respective variations in relation to the previous time slice (c, d).
The results obtained in this study produced a spatial view, on region-
al and sub-basin scales, of the dynamics of soil loss by water erosion in
MRB to the end of the 21st century. Soil erosion risk could be assessed
based on A1B climate change scenario simulated by Eta-CPETC/
HadCM3model. However, it is noted that the climate change impacts
were analyzed only in the context of the active erosion factor (rainfall)
and that the other factors were not changed because of the difficulty of
designing realistic land use scenarios along the 21st century, since there
are no master plans and/or ecological-economic zoning for the basin or
even for the Peru. In addition, the agricultural suitability in the basin is
associated with extensive grazing and it is very unlikely that a major
change, in spatial terms, will occur within this land use context. Beyond
this aspect, we need to highlight that the pedological database is not, in
qualitative terms, homogeneous throughout MRB, with MRAV being the
only region of the basin with better information gathered at the field
level. Thus, the K-factor associated with the soil erosion vulnerability
does not provide the degree desired for reliability since it was inferred
based on soil information from FAO tables. In addition, the R-factor anal-
ysis may have a considerable estimation error, although the general
trend has been captured based on the A1B scenario, indicating de-
creased rainfall erosive power. The uncertainty associated with the R-
factor is linked also to the fact that there is no satisfactory pluviographic
database for the basin, which would allow establishing a more reliable
relationship between rainfall erosivity and other indicators related to
the precipitation behavior.
Other passive factors (soil cover and cultivation practices) also will
be impacted by climate change; however, the identification and espe-
cially the measurement over the long-term of these factors are very un-
certain. According to Mello et al. (2015), the following question stand
out in that regard: what are the effects of increased atmospheric CO2
concentration on the physiological behavior of plants and their impacts
on land cover? Also, what land use scenarios are possible for the MRB
without having direct plans and ecological-economic and/or agro-cli-
matological zoning? In addition, what are the impacts on mineralization
of soil organic matter and biota and their effects on the soils susceptibil-
ity to erosion? It can be seen that the interaction of all these factors
makes future prediction highly complex and uncertain. Even facing
these problems mentioned, the present work consists of a pioneering
effort for the Peruvian Andes and for the tropical Andes as it brings a
 S.W. Correa et al. / Catena 147 (2016) 110–124
unique and significant contribution that can be used to guide the MRB
economic development over the XXI century.
4. Conclusions
Analysis of the spatial and temporal rainfall erosivity behavior
showed that there is a downward trend over the 21st century in almost
all the MRB as a result of reduced precipitation projected by the dynam-
ical downscaling of the HadCM3 run for the A1B climate change scenar-
io using the Eta-CPTEC regional climate model at 20-km resolution. At
the sub-basin spatial level, we found successive increases for the R-fac-
tor for those located in the northern and southern-central parts of the
MRB, under the strong influence of the Andes. Although the Mann-Ken-
dall test had found a statistical decrease in annual rainfall erosivity along
the 21st century, there was a significant increase in data variability, es-
pecially after the year 2040 (2nd time slice). Also in the context of the
effects on the rainfall behavior, there was a significant increase on PCI
index over the 21st century by the Mann-Kendall test, meaning that
there is an increased trend in rainfall concentration, which can promote
an increase of rainfall erosivity potential, mainly during the rainy season
(summer), although this effect is reduced on an annual time scale.
The MRB current risk to erosion was classified as “extremely severe”
and was associated with the soil vulnerability and land use, and we
modeled as if land use would remain the same until the end of this cen-
tury throughout most of the basin. However, at the sub-basin scale level,
especially those located in northern MRB, there is a “moderate” to “se-
vere” risk, even having a tendency towards an increased rainfall erosive
power, due to the greater protection offered by tundra. Even with the
downward trend in the R-factor throughout this century, MRB will con-
tinue being highly vulnerable to erosion and special strategies for soil
protection should be developed.
This study has limitations especially related to databases that would
permit a more detailed analysis of the spatial behavior of soil erosion in
the MRB, such as a more detailed and accurate pedological database,
better hydro-climatic monitoring spatially distributed in the basin and
the uncertainties related to climate change projections. Since the MRB
constitutes one of the main environmental and agricultural manage-
ment significant areas of the tropical Andes, more care should be
taken with soil erosion risk in the future.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank FAPEMIG (588 - CAG PPM - 00132/14 and
PPM VIII - 71-14), and CNPq (PEC-PG and 303059/2013-3) for sponsor-
ing this research.
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