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4HE CAUSE OF MOST RECENT INSURGENCIES CAN EASILY BE ATTRIBUTED TO REVOLUTIONARY
SITUATIONS THAT MIGHT HAVE EXPLODED INTO SPONTANEOUS REVOLUTIONS BUT BRED
INSTEAD A GROUP OF LEADERS WHO THEN PROCEEDED TO ORGANIZE AND CONDUCT THE
INSURGENCIES )N VIEW OF THIS FACT IT WOULD BE WRONG AND UNJUST TO CONCLUDE
THAT INSURGENCIES ARE MERELY THE PRODUCT OF PERSONAL AMBITIONS ON THE PART OF
THEIR LEADERS WHO DEVELOPED THE WHOLE MOVEMENT ARTIlCIALLY SO TO SPEAK
&OR THE SAKE OF DEMONSTRATION LET US SUPPOSE THAT IN #OUNTRY 8 A SMALL
GROUP OF DISCONTENTED MENPOSSESSING THE ATTRIBUTES OF LEADERSHIP INSPIRED
BY THE SUCCESS OF SO MANY INSURGENCIES IN THE PAST TWENTY YEARS WELL AWARE
OF THE STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PROBLEMS INVOLVED IN SUCH AN ENTERPRISEHAVE
MET AND DECIDED TO OVERTHROW THE EXISTING ORDER BY THE PATH OF INSURGENCY
)N LIGHT OF THE COUNTERINSURGENTS MATERIAL SUPERIORITY AT THE OUTSET THEIR
CHANCES OF VICTORY WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND ON WHETHER CERTAIN PRELIMINARY
CONDITIONS ARE MET 7HAT CONDITIONS !RE THESE CONDITIONS A MUST )N
OTHER WORDS WHAT ARE THE PREREQUISITES FOR A SUCCESSFUL INSURGENCY
+NOWING WHAT THEY ARE WOULD HELP IN ASSESSING FROM A COUNTERINSURGENTS
POINT OF VIEW HOW VULNERABLE A COUNTRY WOULD BE TO AN INSURGENCY
! #!53%
.ECESSITY OF A #AUSE
(OW CAN THE INSURGENT EVER HOPE TO PRY THE POPULATION AWAY FROM THE
COUNTERINSURGENT TO CONTROL IT AND TO MOBILIZE IT "Y lNDING SUPPORTERS
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AMONG THE POPULATION PEOPLE WHOSE SUPPORT WILL RANGE FROM ACTIVE PAR
TICIPATION IN THE STRUGGLE TO PASSIVE APPROVAL 4HE lRST BASIC NEED FOR AN
INSURGENT WHO AIMS AT MORE THAN SIMPLY MAKING TROUBLE IS AN ATTRACTIVE
CAUSE PARTICULARLY IN VIEW OF THE RISKS INVOLVED AND IN VIEW OF THE FACT THAT
THE EARLY SUPPORTERS AND THE ACTIVE SUPPORTERSNOT NECESSARILY THE SAME
PERSONSHAVE TO BE RECRUITED BY PERSUASION
7ITH A CAUSE THE INSURGENT HAS A FORMIDABLE IF INTANGIBLE ASSET THAT HE
CAN PROGRESSIVELY TRANSFORM INTO CONCRETE STRENGTH ! SMALL GROUP OF MEN
SANS CAUSE CAN SEIZE POWER BY A LUCKY PLOTTHIS HAS HAPPENED IN HISTORY
BUT THEN A PLOT IS NOT AN INSURGENCY 4HE LACK OF AN ATTRACTIVE CAUSE IS WHAT
RESTRAINS A PRIORI APOLITICAL CRIME SYNDICATES FROM ATTEMPTING TO ASSUME
POWER FOR THEY REALIZE THAT ONLY CRIMINALS WILL FOLLOW THEM
4HE n #OMMUNIST INSURGENCY IN 'REECE A TEXTBOOK CASE OF EVERY
THING THAT CAN GO WRONG IN AN INSURGENCY IS AN EXAMPLE OF FAILURE DUE AMONG
OTHER LESS ESSENTIAL REASONS TO THE LACK OF A CAUSE 4HE #OMMUNIST 0ARTY THE
%!- AND ITS ARMY THE %,!3 GREW DURING 7ORLD 7AR )) WHEN THE ENTIRE
POPULATION WAS RESISTING THE 'ERMANS /NCE THE COUNTRY WAS LIBERATED THE
%!- COULD lND NO VALID CAUSE 'REECE HAD LITTLE INDUSTRY AND CONSEQUENTLY
NO PROLETARIAT EXCEPT THE DOCKERS OF 0IRAEUS AND TOBACCO
FACTORY WORKERS
THE MERCHANT SAILORS WHOSE JOBS KEPT THEM MOVING ABOUT COULD PROVIDE NO
CONSTANT SUPPORT 4HERE WAS NO APPALLING AGRARIAN PROBLEM TO EXPLOIT 4HE
WEALTHY 'REEK CAPITALISTS WHOSE FORTUNES HAD USUALLY BEEN MADE ABROAD
WERE AN OBJECT OF ADMIRATION RATHER THAN OF HOSTILITY IN A TRADE
MINDED NATION
.O SHARPLY lXED CLASSES EXISTED THE -INISTER OF THE .AVY MIGHT WELL BE THE
COUSIN OF A CAFÏ WAITER 4O MAKE MATTERS WORSE THE 'REEK #OMMUNISTS WERE
PERFORCE ALLIED TO "ULGARIA 'REECES TRADITIONAL ENEMY TO 9UGOSLAVIA WHICH
CLAIMS A PART OF 'REECES -ACEDONIA TO !LBANIA FROM WHICH 'REECE CLAIMS
PART OF %PIRUS 7ITH NATIONAL FEELINGS RUNNING AS HIGH AS THEY DO IN THE
"ALKANS THESE ASSOCIATIONS DID NOT INCREASE THE POPULARITY OF THE 'REEK
#OMMUNISTS
5SING WHAT FORCES THEY HAD AT THE END OF THE WAR TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE
DIFlCULT TERRAIN WITHDRAWING INTO SAFE ASYLUM ACROSS THE SATELLITES BOR
DERS WHEN NECESSARY THE #OMMUNIST INSURGENTS WERE ABLE TO WAGE
COMMANDO
TYPE OPERATIONS BUT NOT TRUE GUERRILLA WARFARE IN FACT THEIR
INlLTRATING UNITS HAD TO HIDE FROM THE POPULATION WHEN THEY COULD NOT COW
IT AND THEIR OPERATIONS LASTED GENERALLY AS LONG AS THE SUPPLIES THEY CARRIED
WITH THEM 4HE %,!3 WAS OBLIGED TO ENLIST PARTISANS BY FORCE 7HENEVER
THE UNWILLING RECRUITS FOUND THE POLITICAL COMMISSAR BEHIND THEIR BACK LESS
DANGEROUS THAN THE NATIONALIST FORCES IN FRONT THEY DESERTED
4HE MAIN REASON THE INSURGENCY LASTED SO LONG WAS THAT AT THE START
THE REGULAR GOVERNMENT FORCES CONSISTED OF ONLY A SINGLE BRIGADE WHICH
HAD FOUGHT WITH THE !LLIES IN THE -EDITERRANEAN 4HEATER AND WAS GREATLY
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OUTNUMBERED BY THE INSURGENTS !S SOON AS THE ARMY WAS REORGANIZED
AND STRENGTHENED lRST WITH "RITISH THEN WITH 53 AID THE NATIONALIST
COMMAND UNDERTOOK TO CLEAN THE COUNTRY AREA BY AREA BY PURELY MILITARY
ACTION ! CLEANED AREA WAS KEPT CLEAN BY ARMING LOCAL MILITIAS THIS
PRESENTED LITTLE DIFlCULTY SINCE THE POPULATION WAS DElNITELY ANTI
#OMMUNIST AND COULD BE RELIED UPON
3TRATEGIC #RITERIA OF A #AUSE
4HE BEST CAUSE FOR THE INSURGENTS PURPOSE IS ONE THAT BY DElNITION CAN
ATTRACT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF SUPPORTERS AND REPEL THE MINIMUM OF OPPO
NENTS 4HUS A CAUSE APPEALING TO THE PROLETARIAT IN AN INDUSTRIALIZED COUN
TRY OR TO THE PEASANTS IN AN UNDERDEVELOPED ONE IS A GOOD CAUSE ! PURELY
.EGRO MOVEMENT TRYING TO EXPLOIT THE .EGRO PROBLEM AS A BASIS FOR AN
INSURGENCY IN THE 5NITED 3TATES WITH A POPULATION OF MILLION .EGROES
AND MILLION WHITES WOULD BE DOOMED FROM THE START )N 3OUTH !FRICA
WITH MILLION .EGROES AND MILLION WHITES ITS CHANCES WOULD BE
GOODOTHER FACTORS ASIDE )NDEPENDENCE FROM COLONIAL RULE WAS AUTOMATI
CALLY A GOOD CAUSE IN )NDONESIA )NDOCHINA 4UNISIA -OROCCO !LGERIA
#YPRUS THE "ELGIAN #ONGO AND NOW !NGOLA
4HE INSURGENT MUST OF COURSE BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY HIMSELF TOTALLY WITH THE
CAUSE OR MORE PRECISELY WITH THE ENTIRE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION THEO
RETICALLY ATTRACTED BY IT )N -ALAYA INDEPENDENCE FROM 'REAT "RITAIN WAS
THE CAUSE CHOSEN BY THE INSURGENTS THE -ALAYAN #OMMUNIST 0ARTY (OW
EVER PERCENT OF THE 0ARTY MEMBERS WERE #HINESE NOT TRUE -ALAYS THE
-ALAYS CONSEQUENTLY REMAINED LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO THE STRUGGLE 4HE
SAME STORY OCCURRED IN +ENYA IF ONE CHOOSES TO QUALIFY WHAT TOOK PLACE
THERE AS A REVOLUTIONARY WAR THE INSURGENCY WAS CONDUCTED IN SO CRUDE A
FASHION AS TO MAKE ITS INCLUSION IN THIS CATEGORY QUESTIONABLE )NDEPEN
DENCE WAS PURSUED BY MEMBERS OF A SINGLE TRIBE THE +IKUYUS NO OTHER
TRIBE MOVED IN SUPPORT
4O BE PERFECTLY SOUND THE CAUSE MUST BE SUCH THAT THE COUNTERINSURGENT
CANNOT ESPOUSE IT TOO OR CAN DO SO ONLY AT THE RISK OF LOSING HIS POWER
WHICH IS AFTER ALL WHAT HE IS lGHTING FOR ,AND REFORM LOOKED LIKE A PROM
ISING CAUSE TO THE (UKBALAHAPS AFTER THE DEFEAT OF *APAN AND THE ACCESSION
OF THE 0HILIPPINES TO INDEPENDENCE BUT WHEN THE GOVERNMENT OFFERED LAND
TO THE (UKS ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL SUPPORTERS THE INSURGENTS LOST THEIR CAUSE
AND THE GAME 4HE SAME DISASTER STRUCK THE -ALAYAN #OMMUNIST 0ARTY
ONCE "RITAIN PROMISED INDEPENDENCE TO THE COUNTRY AND SET A DATE FOR IT
! CAUSE lNALLY MUST ALSO BE LASTING IF NOT FOR THE DURATION OF THE REVO
LUTIONARY WAR AT LEAST UNTIL THE INSURGENT MOVEMENT IS WELL ON ITS FEET 4HIS
DIFFERENTIATES A STRATEGIC CAUSE FROM A TACTICAL ONE A DEEP
SEATED CAUSE
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FROM A TEMPORARY ONE RESULTING FROM THE EXPLOITATION OF AN EPHEMERAL
DIFlCULTY SUCH AS FOR INSTANCE THE HIGH PRICE AND THE SCARCITY OF FOOD AFTER
A YEAR OF NATURAL CALAMITIES
4HE .ATURE OF THE #AUSE
7HAT IS A POLITICAL PROBLEM )T IS hAN UNSOLVED CONTRADICTIONv ACCORDING
TO -AO 4SE
TUNG )F ONE ACCEPTS THIS DElNITION THEN A POLITICAL CAUSE IS THE
CHAMPIONING OF ONE SIDE OF THE CONTRADICTION )N OTHER WORDS WHERE THERE
IS NO PROBLEM THERE IS NO CAUSE BUT THERE ARE ALWAYS PROBLEMS IN ANY
COUNTRY 7HAT MAKES ONE COUNTRY MORE VULNERABLE THAN ANOTHER TO INSUR
GENCY IS THE DEPTH AND THE ACUITY OF ITS EXISTING PROBLEMS
0ROBLEMS OF ALL NATURES ARE EXPLOITABLE FOR AN INSURGENCY PROVIDED THE
CAUSES THEY LEAD TO MEET THE ABOVE CRITERIA 4HE PROBLEM MAY BE ESSENTIALLY
POLITICAL RELATED TO THE NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY
4HE DICTATORSHIP OF "ATISTA FOR THE #UBAN INSURGENTS THE *APANESE AGGRES
SION FOR THE #HINESE ARE EXAMPLES OF POLITICAL PROBLEMS )T FOLLOWS THAT ANY
COUNTRY WHERE THE POWER IS INVESTED IN AN OLIGARCHY WHETHER INDIGENOUS OR
FOREIGN IS POTENTIAL GROUND FOR A REVOLUTIONARY WAR
4HE PROBLEM MAY BE SOCIAL AS WHEN ONE CLASS IS EXPLOITED BY ANOTHER OR
DENIED ANY POSSIBILITY OF IMPROVING ITS LOT 4HIS HAS BEEN EXHAUSTIVELY
DISCUSSED SINCE +ARL -ARX AND LITTLE NEED BE ADDED HERE 4HE PROBLEM
BECOMES PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS WHEN THE SOCIETY DOES NOT INTEGRATE THOSE
WHO BY THE LEVEL OF THEIR EDUCATION OR BY THEIR ACHIEVEMENTS HAVE PROVED
TO BELONG TO THE TRUE ELITE &OR IT IS AMONG THIS REJECTED ELITE THAT THE INSUR
GENTS CAN lND THE INDISPENSABLE LEADERS
4HE PROBLEM MAY BE ECONOMIC SUCH AS THE LOW PRICE OF AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTS IN RELATION TO INDUSTRIAL GOODS OR THE LOW PRICE OF RAW MATERIAL IN
RELATION TO lNISHED PRODUCTS OR THE IMPORT OF FOREIGN GOODS RATHER THAN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NATIONAL INDUSTRY 4HE ISSUE OF NEOCOLONIALISM TODAY IS
CLOSELY RELATED TO THIS PROBLEM
4HE PROBLEM MAY BE RACIAL AS IT WOULD BE IN 3OUTH !FRICA /R RELIGIOUS
AS IT WOULD BE IN ,EBANON ALTHOUGH HERE THE POPULATION IS EVENLY DIVIDED
BETWEEN #HRISTIANS AND -OSLEMS /R CULTURAL AS IN )NDIA WHERE THE
MULTIPLICITY OF LANGUAGES HAS ALREADY PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE AGITATION
4HE PROBLEM MAY EVEN BE ARTIlCIAL SO LONG AS IT HAS A CHANCE TO BE
ACCEPTED AS A FACT 4HE LOT OF THE #HINESE FARMERSVICTIMS OF EXACTIONS BY
THE AUTHORITIES AND OF THE RAPACITY OF THE LOCAL USURERSWAS NO DOUBT A HARD
ONE 4HE #HINESE #OMMUNISTS DID EXPLOIT THIS PROBLEM (OWEVER THEIR
CHIEF CAUSE BORROWED FROM 3UN 9AT
SEN WAS LAND REFORM )TS REVOLUTIONARY
VALUE LIES IN THE IDEA THAT LAND OWNERSHIP WAS CONCENTRATED IN A SMALL
MINORITY A CLASS WAR ON THE ISSUE WOULD THEORETICALLY BRING TO THEIR SIDE THE
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MAJORITY OF THE FARMERS 4HE SOLE COMPREHENSIVE WORK ON THE SUBJECT OF
LAND TENURE IN #HINA BY * ,OSSING "UCK CONTRADICTED THE #OMMUNIST
PICTURE OF THE SITUATION BUT THIS FACT DID NOT DECREASE IN THE SLIGHTEST THE
PSYCHOLOGICAL VALUE OF THE SLOGAN h,AND TO THE 4ILLERv !N EFlCIENT PROPA
GANDA MACHINE CAN TURN AN ARTIlCIAL PROBLEM INTO A REAL ONE
)T IS NOT ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY THAT THE PROBLEM BE ACUTE ALTHOUGH THE
INSURGENTS WORK IS FACILITATED IF SUCH IS THE CASE )F THE PROBLEM IS MERELY
LATENT THE lRST TASK OF THE INSURGENT IS TO MAKE IT ACUTE BY hRAISING THE
POLITICAL CONSCIOUSNESS OF THE MASSESv 4ERRORISM MAY BE A QUICK MEANS OF
PRODUCING THIS EFFECT "ATISTAS DICTATORSHIP DID NOT BY ITSELF SUDDENLY
BECOME UNBEARABLE TO THE #UBAN PEOPLE THEY HAD LIVED UNDER OTHER DICTA
TORSHIPS IN THE PAST INCLUDING A PREVIOUS "ATISTA REGIME !ND THE COUNTRY
WAS PROSPEROUS IN ALTHOUGH THERE WAS GREAT DISPARITY IN THE DISTRIBU
TION OF WEALTH "ATISTA MIGHT PERHAPS HAVE LASTED MANY MORE YEARS HAD IT
NOT BEEN FOR #ASTRO AND HIS FOLLOWERS WHO SPECTACULARLY RAISED THE ISSUE
AND FOCUSED THE LATENT OPPOSITION ON THEIR MOVEMENT
4ACTICAL -ANIPULATION OF THE #AUSE
4HE INSURGENT IS NOT RESTRICTED TO THE CHOICE OF A SINGLE CAUSE 5NLESS HE
HAS FOUND AN OVER
ALL CAUSE LIKE ANTICOLONIALISM WHICH IS SUFlCIENT IN
ITSELF BECAUSE IT COMBINES ALL THE POLITICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC RACIAL RELI
GIOUS AND CULTURAL CAUSES DESCRIBED ABOVE HE HAS MUCH TO GAIN BY SELECT
ING AN ASSORTMENT OF CAUSES ESPECIALLY TAILORED FOR THE VARIOUS GROUPS IN
THE SOCIETY THAT HE IS SEEKING TO ATTRACT
,ET US SUPPOSE THAT THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT IS TENTATIVELY MADE UP
AS IT WAS IN #HINA OF THE #OMMUNIST 0ARTY hVANGUARD OF THE REVOLUTION
PARTY OF THE WORKERS AND THE POOR FARMERSv AND ITS ALLIES MEDIUM AND RICH
PEASANTS ARTISANS PLUS THE hNATIONAL BOURGEOISIEv AND THE CAPITALISTS WHO
SUFFER FROM hBUREAUCRATIC CAPITALISMv AND FROM THE ECONOMIC ENCROACH
MENTS OF THE IMPERIALISTS 4HE INSURGENT HAS TO APPEAL TO THE WHOLE AND A
CAUSE IS NECESSARY FOR THAT 3INCE IT IS EASIER TO UNITE hAGAINSTv THAN hFORv
PARTICULARLY WHEN THE COMPONENTS ARE SO VARIED THE GENERAL CAUSE WILL
MOST PROBABLY BE A NEGATIVE ONE SOMETHING LIKE hTHROW THE RASCALS OUTv
THE RASCALS IN THIS CASE #HIANG +AI
SHEK AND THE +UOMINTANG REACTIONAR
IES THE FEUDAL WARLORDS hBUREAUCRATIC CAPITALISMv THE COMPRADORES hRUN
NING DOGS OF IMPERIALISMv AND THE LANDLORDS )N ADDITION THE INSURGENT
MUST APPEAL TO EACH COMPONENT OF THE MOVEMENT AND IN THIS ASPECT THE
VARIOUS CAUSES WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN A CONSTRUCTIVE ELEMENT FOR THE PROLE
TARIAT A -ARXIST SOCIETY FOR THE POOR FARMERS LAND FOR THE MEDIUM FARM
ERS FAIR TAXES FOR THE RICH FARMERS JUST REASONABLE AND LASTING SETTLEMENT
FOR THE NATIONAL BOURGEOISIE DEFENSE OF THE NATIONAL INTERESTS ORDER FAIR
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$IMINISHING )MPORTANCE OF THE #AUSE
4HE IMPORTANCE OF A CAUSE AN ABSOLUTE ESSENTIAL AT THE OUTSET OF AN INSUR
GENCY DECREASES PROGRESSIVELY AS THE INSURGENT ACQUIRES STRENGTH 4HE WAR
ITSELF BECOMES THE PRINCIPAL ISSUE FORCING THE POPULATION TO TAKE SIDES
PREFERABLY THE WINNING ONE 4HIS HAS ALREADY BEEN EXPLAINED IN THE PREVI
OUS CHAPTER
7%!+.%33 /&