Global Industry Forecast - Motor Vehicles Q3 2019

Motor vehicles &
parts
Q3 2019
NACE rev 2 industry code: 29
Economist: Stephen Foreman, Lead Economist

Tel: +44 203 910 8107
E-mail: sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com
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Motor vehicles - Overview
Forecast highlights Motor vehicles and parts
Global auto market suffering worst slump since Annual percentage changes
global financial crisis 2013-2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-2028
• The global automotive market slowdown has continued into H1 2019 as United States 5.1 5.9 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.7 1.4
a number of important markets - including the US, Western Europe and
Eurozone 4.5 -1.0 -6.2 0.7 2.4 2.6 -0.4 0.6
China - have struggled. Overall we expect a contraction of 0.8%
globally in 2019, the weakest performance since the global
United Kingdom 5.8 -1.5 -8.0 2.9 2.1 -3.9 4.3 -0.9
financial crisis. Japan 2.0 1.1 1.1 -2.0 2.0 1.4 -0.6 0.2
• Despite this precarious global situation, global growth in 2020 is Developed Countries 3.8 1.7 -2.1 -0.1 2.1 2.3 0.2 0.8
expected to pick up to 1.4% growth, supported by new automotive Eastern Europe 8.7 4.6 5.2 3.2 1.1 4.1 5.0 2.2
model launches in Central and Eastern Europe, a gradual stabilisation Brazil -6.7 12.5 2.9 2.9 4.5 6.8 5.2 2.4
in Chinese activity, and a recovery in key eurozone markets such as Russia -4.5 11.9 -4.6 5.8 6.4 6.1 5.1 3.4
Germany, Spain and Italy. India 5.4 17.8 -5.7 3.5 3.7 5.6 6.0 7.5
• On technological developments, vehicle electrification is accelerating China 12.3 5.2 1.6 3.7 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.5
and 2019 is set to become the year when model activity in the
battery electric vehicle sector takes off. Policy in China is the major Emerging markets 6.7 5.1 0.6 3.1 3.4 4.5 4.2 3.4
driving force, but emissions‐reduction mandates will also become World 5.1 3.2 -0.8 1.4 2.7 3.3 2.1 2.1
increasingly significant in Europe in the mid‐2020s, causing a later
Motor vehicles and parts: Contribution to global
burst in model activity there.
Growth drivers/constraints growth
China USA
% year
• Risks to the outlook are titled to the downside, with the threat of ✓ Continued employment and real disposable income 6 Western Europe Eastern Europe
escalating global trade tensions being most prominent. On the US- growth 5 Japan Other
World
China front, China has threatened a 25% tariff on US car imports from ✓ Low emerging-market vehicle densities – underpins 4
December 2019. Among automakers, Ford, Tesla, Daimler and BMW demand as household incomes rise Forecast
3
Group are the most vulnerable to the additional levies, given their Χ Policy uncertainty – President Trump's trade
2
exposure to Chinese export demand. initiatives may delay investment decisions and severely
disrupt supply chains 1
• In addition, US threats to impose tariffs on EU autos still hangs over the Χ Shift from diesels - as consumers note recent 0
industry. This would disproportionately impact German and Eastern scandals and regulations tighten on air pollution in -1
European industry, which have extensive trade linkages with the US cities -2
and close integration into European auto supply chains. 2013- 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-
Key producers X% Share of global production 2018 2017 2028
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
US 17% China 23% Japan 19% Western 14% Emergers 24%

Europe ex. China
2019: 0.5% 2019: 1.6% 2019: 1.1% -6.5% -0.2%
2019: 2019:
2020: 0.7% 2020: 3.7% 2020: -2.0% 2020: 0.9% 2020: 2.5%
Arrows indicate year-end growth strengthening or weakening relative to 2019.
Page 2 Contact: Stephen Foreman | Lead Economist | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

Motor vehicles - Key drivers
US: Automobile loan rates
Global trends %
Subsector analysis
6
• Vehicle parcs aged during the global financial crisis, as Automotive sector trends are driven by four key themes:
households postponed the purchase of cars. Following 3yr used-car loan 5yr new-car loan
the crisis, replacement demand had buoyed new 5
Motor vehicles versus parts' production: The large
vehicle purchases but there are now increasing signs vehicle plants owned by the well-known multinational firms
that this support to vehicle sales is waning, as 4 are dependent upon a myriad of parts' suppliers, and any
competitively priced used vehicles are increasingly disruptions to these input chains (e.g. potentially, President
available and greater vehicle reliability encourages Trump's tariffs could have major impacts upon output
3
owners to keep vehicles for longer. trends in the near-term. Generally, parts' value-added
expands more rapidly than that in motor vehicles due to
• Rising real household disposable incomes and 2 the increasing sophistication of the inputs.
continued employment growth, spurred by stimulative 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
monetary policies, continue to underpin big-ticket Source : New York Times/Haver Analytics Personal versus commercial vehicle trends: Distinct
purchases such as vehicles in developed countries but –
trends are often evident between cars, light trucks and
after initial growth spurts – demand momentum is now US: Retail gasoline price
commercial vehicles, and heavy commercial vehicles. With
showing signs of shifting towards a more sustainable US$/gallon, regular grade
4.00 investment starting to pick-up across the developed world,
pace.
heavy commercial vehicle demand is starting to regain
• Growing demand from the emerging markets will 3.50 momentum.
underpin global automotive growth in the medium-
term. Low vehicle densities and a rise in middle-class 3.00 Powertrain technologies: The VW scandal has
income will underpin demand for personal vehicles. China undermined the role of diesels in the vehicle mix, with their
will continue to drive emerging market growth, but a 2.50 Europe-wide share now significantly below 50%. Growth
significant contribution will come from other locations. In rates for hybrid and fully electric vehicles look impressive
2.00
India, for example, not only should local market growth but sales remain a very low share virtually everywhere
enable a substantial expansion in production, but 1.50
despite firms' ambitious plans.
policymakers are targeting a marked increase in the 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
overall size and impact of the automotive sector. Source US Dept of Energy/Haver Analytics
Model cycles & segment trends: Our forecasts
incorporate LMC Automotive's model and segment
Developed countries: Motor vehicle output and forecasts. Switchovers both within and between each
consumer spending % year automotive group's plants have a major impact upon value-
% year Motor vehicle output (LHS) added growth forecasts, especially in countries with few
20 4
Total consumer spending (RHS) Forecast substantive plants.
15 3
2
10
1
5
0
0 -1
-5 -2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Page 3 Contact: Stephen Foreman | Lead Economist | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com 0

Motor vehicles - Global prospects
Current production (US$bn, 2015 prices) 5-year growth (CAGR)
US$bn300 US$bn0 13% -3%
Motor vehicles - Top 10 fastest growing countries Motor vehicles - Top 10 slowest growing countries
(Annual percentage changes) (Annual percentage changes)
Last Year Next 5 years Last Year Next 5 years
Kazakhstan 59.7 Kazakhstan 12.5 Chile -16.8 Australia -2.9
Bahrain 42.9 Argentina 12.0 Belgium -8.9 Greece -2.5
Latvia 22.0 Algeria 11.7 Taiwan -6.4 Ecuador -2.3
Slovakia 19.3 Kenya 10.7 Australia -6.2 Slovenia -2.2
Ecuador 19.3 Singapore 10.1 Finland -5.5 Netherlands -1.9
Vietnam 17.9 Ukraine 8.8 Iran -5.1 Israel -1.7
India 17.8 Tunisia 7.4 Greece -3.7 Denmark -1.7
Bulgaria 16.9 Hungary 7.4 United Arab Emirates -3.6 Finland -1.5
Ireland 15.7 Philippines 7.3 Turkey -3.4 Canada -1.3
Croatia 14.8 Morocco 7.0 Italy -2.8 Portugal -1.2

#NA
Motor vehicles - Macro risks #NA

#NA
#NA
#NA
Protracted eurozone slowdown Trade war escalation #NA
#NA
#NA
#NA
Key features World: Motor vehicles Key features World: Motor vehicles #NA
% year % year
• Policymakers prove unable to • Trade tensions heighten as the US
#NA
7 7 Baseline #NA
prevent a persistent period of low Baseline raises further tariffs on China,
eurozone growth, as recent 6 imposes a blanket tariff on all goods 6 #NA
manufacturing weakness spills over to Protracted eurozone imported from Mexico and the EU, #NA
the broader economy. 5 slowdown and implements higher tariffs on the 5 Trade war escalation
#NA
4 auto sector globally. 4
• Eurozone automotive demand is #NA
hit, as consumption decisions for big- 3 • The motor vehicle sector and its 3 #NA
ticket items such as cars is supply chain would be among the
postponed. 2 worst hit sectors. Automotive
2 #NA
1 components typically cross borders a 1 #NA
• However the domestic eurozone number of times in the manufacturing #NA
demand hit is partly offset by a boost 0 process, magnifying the impact of 0
to export competitiveness as the Forecast
#NA
-1 Forecast trade barriers and raising production -1
euro depreciates, conversely costs. The dollar appreciation would #NA
impacting production in countries such -2 also impact US automotive exports -2 #NA
as the US and Japan. 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 overseas. 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source : Oxford Economics Source : Oxford Economics #NA
#NA
#NA
US recession hits the global economy EM upturn as trade war fears fade #NA
#NA
#NA
Key features World: Motor vehicles #NA
World: Motor vehicles Key features #NA
% year
• The late-cycle US economy slows % year
sharply, falling into recession as • Trade policy uncertainties fade on 7 #NA
7 Baseline the back of a US-China deal, against Baseline
weaker corporate profits hit business,
6 #NA
household and investor sentiment. 6 a backdrop of supportive policy.
EM upturn as trade war #NA
US recession hits the 5
• China automotive and other open fears fade
• The US recession, coupled with 5 global economy #NA
slowing activity in other advanced Asian economies are among the 4
4 key automotive beneficiaries. #NA
economies could dent household and 3
business confidence, causing 3 These markets benefit from buoyant #NA
consumer and investment automotive export demand. I 2
2 #NA
decisions, such as vehicle purchases
• ncreased confidence and positive 1 #NA
for personal and commercial use, to 1 wealth effects also fuel stronger
be delayed. 0 #NA
0 domestic demand for new vehicles.
• Global automotive output remains Forecast -1 Forecast #NA
-1
in recession in 2020, falling -0.2%, #NA
-2
with US production hit particularly -2 #NA
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
hard. 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Source : Oxford Economics #NA
Source : Oxford Economics
#NA
Page 5 Contact: Stephen Foreman | Lead Economist | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com #NA

Motor vehicles - Macro risks
Motor vehicles
% change from a year earlier
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US
Baseline 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.7 -0.2
Protracted eurozone slowdown -0.2 0.6 3.5 1.0 0.2
Trade war escalation -2.1 0.1 3.6 0.6 -0.3
US recession hits the global economy -3.2 0.0 5.1 2.6 0.6
EM upturn as trade war fears fade 2.9 3.0 3.9 0.4 -0.5
Not used #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

EU15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baseline 0.9 2.9 1.2 -0.1 0.1
Protracted eurozone slowdown 1.0 2.7 -0.4 -1.1 -0.2
Trade war escalation 0.5 1.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.2
EM upturn as trade war fears fade 1.5 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.1

Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baseline -2.0 2.0 1.4 -0.6 0.4
Protracted eurozone slowdown -3.4 0.6 1.0 -0.9 0.6
Trade war escalation -6.1 3.6 1.4 -1.2 0.4
EM upturn as trade war fears fade -1.1 3.6 2.0 -0.8 -0.1

China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baseline 3.7 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.7
Protracted eurozone slowdown 3.5 4.1 4.1 3.3 2.8
Trade war escalation 2.9 3.4 3.3 2.7 2.7
US recession hits the global economy 3.2 3.3 3.9 4.4 4.5
EM upturn as trade war fears fade 4.7 6.2 6.2 4.8 3.6

World 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Baseline 1.4 2.7 3.3 2.1 1.7
Protracted eurozone slowdown 1.0 1.9 2.4 1.5 1.5
Trade war escalation -0.2 1.7 2.3 1.4 1.4
EM upturn
Not used as trade war fears fade 2.5
#N/A 3.8
#N/A 3.8
#N/A 2.2
#N/A 1.6

Motor vehicles - US
Weak domestic sales to weigh on output US: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
Annual percentage change 2018
Forecast highlights 2018 2019 2020
Motor vehicles & parts 5.9 0.5 0.7 Share of global production: 16.8
• US motor vehicle output growth is expected to be muted in 2019 and Motor vehicles 6.1 2.3 0.7 Production as % of GDP: 0.9
2020, as the economy eases back and affordability constraints combine to Motor vehicle bodies & parts 5.7 -1.1 0.7 Production as % Manufacturing: 7.4
dampen new vehicle demand. Car sales -12.4 0.0 4.7 Motor vehicles 3.4
• Despite the overall weakness in the US market, production will find some Commercial vehicles sales 7.7 -2.6 -1.9 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 4.0
support from model localisation (reducing US reliance on imported Light cv sales 7.4 -3.0 -1.4
vehicles), and increased SUV activity to meet the growing appetite for this Heavy cv sales 16.5 5.0 -12.4
body type in the region. Noteworthy new entries and sourcing changes Car production -0.1 -3.1 2.2
include a full year of production of the BMW X7 (G07) Large Premium SUV Commercial vehicles production 3.7 6.3 -2.1
at BMW’s Spartanburg plant this year. Light cv production 2.4 7.1 -0.8
Heavy cv production 14.3 0.5 -12.3
• Output growth is projected to average around 2.3% between 2020 and US: Consumption & sales of new cars & light cvs US: Investment & sales of heavy cvs
2023. Activity will be supported by plants openings, capacity increases Light commercial vehicle sales (LHS)
and model localisation (i.e. building where you sell) - particularly at Fiat Car sales (LHS) % year % year % year
% year Heavy commerical vehicle sales
Consumption (RHS) 60 14
Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), Hyundai, Tesla, Volvo and Mazda - which will 30 5.0 (LHS) Forecast
50 12
offset slowing regional demand. Forecast 40
Private non-residential investment
20 4.0 (RHS) 10
• The latest escalation in US-China trade tensions, in particular China's 30 8
10 3.0 20
decision to impose a 25% tariff on US car imports from December 2019, 6
10
represent a considerable downside risk. Among automakers, Ford, Tesla, 0 2.0 4
0
Daimler and BMW Group are the most vulnerable to the additional levies, -10 2
given their exposure to Chinese export demand. -10 1.0
-20 0
-20 0.0 -30 -2
Growth drivers/constraints 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
✓ Continued employment and real disposable income growth. Source: Oxford Economics/LMC Automotive Source: Oxford Economics/LMC Automotive
✓ Lower oil price - Will ease inflationary pressures and boost consumer US: Interest & exchange rates US: Disposable income and employment
spending power % 2010=100
Employment
2.5 Federal Fund 125 % year
Χ Policy uncertainty – President Trump's trade initiatives may delay interest rate (LHS) 6
Disposable income
120
investment decisions and severely disrupt supply chains. 5
2.0 115
Real effective 4
Χ Less supportive financing and replacement demand trends. 110
exchange rate 3
1.5
Risks/other important points (RHS) 105 2
100 1
• Changes to the rules of origin, as part of the renegotiation of NAFTA, is 1.0
95 0
likely to make North American car production more expensive. This may
0.5 90 -1
push car makers to locate production facilities outside of North America. Forecast
Forecast 85 -2
• The US threat to impose tariffs on $50 billion of auto imports from 0.0 80 -3
the EU would result in higher production costs for both EU and US 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
manufacturers, higher prices for US consumers, and lower US auto Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
sales.

Motor vehicles - Eurozone
US tariff threat hangs over 2020 recovery Eurozone: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
Motor vehicles & parts -1.0 -6.2 0.7 Share of global production: 18.2
• Eurozone automotive output is expected to fall 6.2% in 2019, driven Motor vehicles -2.3 -8.5 0.7 Production as % of GDP: 1.7
by a sharp slump in German production, as a patchy domestic and Motor vehicle bodies & parts 1.7 -1.4 0.5 Production as % Manufacturing: 9.8
export auto demand environment, and the final reverberations of WLTP all Car sales 1.4 0.4 1.1 Motor vehicles 6.5
undermine growth. Commercial vehicles sales 3.7 1.9 3.1 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 3.3
Light cv sales 3.9 2.8 2.7
• In 2020, we expect output will rise 0.7%, driven by a recovery in the
Heavy cv sales 3.2 -3.4 5.5
German, Spanish and Italian markets. For instance, in Italy, the launch of
Car production -2.5 -1.4 3.0
several new FCA models should revamp the group’s portfolio to support
Commercial vehicles production -1.5 -1.5 0.7
production.
Light cv production -2.4 -2.5 2.0
• However, the risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside. Heavy cv production 2.2 1.1 -2.9
Aside from global trade and political uncertainties, the approaching Eurozone: Sale of new cars and consumption Eurozone: Sale of commercial vehicles and
emissions regulation changes (EVAP, RDE, fleet average CO₂) are % year Consumption (LHS) % year investment Sale of commercial vehicles
posing fresh risk. 2.5 25 % year Private non-residential investment
Car sales (RHS) Forecast
2.0 20 20
• Increased emissions‐related vehicle content cost, coupled with the 15
1.5 15
threat of fines for non‐compliance, are potentially punishing for 10 10
OEMs. Some may choose to significantly rationalise model ranges, with the 1.0 5
5
entry‐level segments coming under pressure. European OEMs may either 0.5 0
0 -5
chose to off‐shore production of the lowest‐margin models or withdraw from 0.0
-5 -10
these segments altogether. -0.5 -10 -15 Forecast
-1.0 -15 -20
Growth drivers/constraints -1.5 -20 -25
✓ Lower oil price - will ease inflationary pressures and boost consumer 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
spending power Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/LMC Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/LMC
Χ Brexit threat – both to vehicle sales into the UK and for the Eurozone motor vehicles and parts: Eurozone: Disposable income, consumption and
competitiveness of plants within the eurozone Contributions to growth inflation
Χ Shift from diesels – as consumers note recent scandals and regulations % year
% Germany France Disposable income
Italy Spain 4
toughen on noxious pollutant build-ups in cities 4.0
Inflation Forecast
Austria Other 3 Consumption
Χ Weak longer‐term growth outlook. Many countries are close to 2.0
Eurozone
saturation in terms of vehicle density, and an ageing and slower-growing 2
0.0 1
population implies less demand.
Risks/other important points -2.0 0
-4.0 -1
• Uncertainty engendered by Brexit and the US administrations
protectionist policy stance. -6.0 Forecast -2
-8.0 -3
• Major intra-European production shifts as firms cull excess capacity to 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
free up funds to pursue emerging technologies. Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Motor vehicles - Germany
German auto market in deep recession Germany: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
• A negative cocktail of falling demand in key export markets (such as the Motor vehicles -3.8 -11.8 1.3 Production as % of GDP: 4.1
UK, eurozone and Turkey), stock adjustments for VW group, and Motor vehicle bodies & parts 3.2 -2.9 0.5 Production as % Manufacturing: 17.4
ongoing delays in gaining WLTP certification are combining to create a Car sales -0.2 3.1 -2.5 Motor vehicles 12.6
prolonged slump in the German auto market. Commercial vehicles sales 4.6 1.7 1.1 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 4.8
Light cv sales 5.4 3.0 0.7
• The second half of 2019, however, is expected to be a turning point,
Heavy cv sales 1.9 -2.4 2.7
with positive base effects from a weak second half of 2018, in addition to
higher model activity from Audi and Volkswagen.
Commercial vehicles production -1.5 1.5 -3.9
• The near-term trade risks are considerable. Export-oriented sectors Light cv production -6.8 1.4 -3.9
such as German automotive would be particularly vulnerable to higher Heavy cv production 5.5 1.6 -4.0
tariffs and supply chain disruption in either the UK or the US, resulting from Germany: Sale of new cars and consumption Germany: Sale of commercial vehicles and
a 'no-deal' Brexit or the imposition of auto tariffs by President Trump. investment
% year % year
% year
• The impact of OEMs’ sourcing strategies on German production is 20 Car sales (LHS) 4 40
Sale of commercial Forecast
vehicles
likely to persist into the medium term, weighing on growth in the early 15 Consumption (RHS) 3 30 Private non-residential
2020s. investment
10 2
20
• However, the introduction of German electric vehicle (EV) models from 5 1
2020 will provide some relief, with new models expected by Bentley, BMW, 10
0 0
Mercedes‐Benz, Audi, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda and Volkswagen around the 0
-5 -1
turn of the decade. This will reinvigorate domestic volumes.
-10 Forecast -2 -10
-15 -3 -20
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source :Haver Analytics Source :Haver Analytics
Eurozone: Interest & exchange rates Germany: Consumption, disposable income &
Growth drivers/constraints ECB interest rate (LHS) employment Consumption
Χ Brexit threat – both to vehicle sales into the UK and for the % Real effective exchange rate (RHS) 2010=100 % year Employment
1.6 105 3.5
competitiveness of plants within the Eurozone. 1.4 3.0
Forecast 100 2.5
Χ Shift from diesels – as consumers note recent scandals and regulations 1.2
2.0
toughen on noxious pollutant build-ups in cities. 1.0 95
1.5
0.8
90 1.0
Risks/other important points 0.6 0.5
0.4 85 0.0
• The threat of US auto tariffs would create considerable disruption to 0.2 -0.5
80 -1.0
German car production. For instance exports to the US accounted for 0.0
Forecast
around 25% of the Leipzig VW plant's production last year. -0.2 75 -1.5
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 -2.0
• Over the longer term, the potential for growth in the German market 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics\Haver Analytics
remains somewhat more limited than elsewhere as the adult population
begins to dip from next decade.

Motor vehicles - Italy
Second year of contraction in 2019 Italy: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
• Italian automotive output is forecast to fall for a second successive Motor vehicles -5.3 -9.4 7.3 Production as % of GDP: 0.8
year in 2019, as production of several Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) Motor vehicle bodies & parts -0.7 -4.0 3.4 Production as % Manufacturing: 4.7
models’ contracts. This is driven by weak domestic demand as well as Car sales -3.1 -1.9 1.7 Motor vehicles 2.1
softer exports from markets such as Turkey, while ageing model lines Commercial vehicles sales -5.4 -1.1 3.5 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 2.6
continue to reduce the group’s competitiveness. Light cv sales -6.7 0.2 2.2
• From 2020, however, the launch of several new models, such as the Alfa Heavy cv sales 4.9 -10.2 13.7
Romeo Tonale and Maserati Levantina SUVs, should revamp the group’s Car production -8.9 -13.9 17.4
product portfolio to support production. Commercial vehicles production 2.3 -0.8 -6.3
Light cv production 2.8 -2.2 -5.8
• FCA’s plans to increase Jeep’s Italian production base show no Heavy cv production -2.4 2.9 -0.9
immediate signs of letting up, despite the ongoing threat of US tariffs on EU Italy: Sale of new cars and consumption Italy: Sale of commercial vehicles and
autos, with a significant portion of Jeep Compass production set to shift investment
% year % year Forecast
from Mexico to Italy at the start of 2020. In addition, production of the Fiat % year
500 will transfer from Tychy in Poland to Mirafiori in Italy in 2020. 25 4 80 Sale of commercial vehicles 1.2
20 3 60 1
• However, as the economy remains weak, there is a danger that further 15 2
10 40
economic disappointment could push the market lower still. 5 1 0.8
0 0 20
• There remains scope for growth in the medium‐term, though much -5 -1
0.6
Car sales 0
hinges on a supportive economic environment. With a sizeable vehicle -10
(LHS) -2 0.4
-15 -20
parc, the lack of new vehicles year after year inevitably impacts the -3
-20 Consumption Forecast 0.2
average age of the fleet. -4 -40
-25 (RHS)
-30 -5 -60 0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Growth drivers/constraints Source :Haver Analytics Source :Haver Analytics
✓ Ageing vehicle parc – providing a source of replacement demand Eurozone: Interest & exchange rates Italy: Consumption, disposable income &
Χ Brexit threat – both to vehicle sales into the UK and for the ECB interest rate (LHS) employment Consumption
competitiveness of plants within Italy. % Real effective exchange rate (RHS) 2010=100 % year Employment
Χ Weak consumer confidence - which could weigh on purchasing 1.6 105 3.0
1.4 2.0
decisions Forecast 100 1.0
1.2
1.0 95 0.0
0.8 -1.0
90 -2.0
Risks/other important points 0.6
Forecast
0.4 85 -3.0
• Major intra-European production shifts as firms cull excess capacity to 0.2 -4.0
80 -5.0
free up funds to pursue emerging technologies. 0.0
-0.2 75 -6.0
• Vehicle market growth could be derailed if consumer confidence falls. 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 -7.0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics\Haver Analytics

Motor vehicles - UK
Threat of disorderly Brexit clouds outlook UK: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
• UK automotive activity is expected to fall in 2019 for a second consecutive Motor vehicles -1.9 -8.0 3.0 Production as % of GDP: 0.8
year as weak domestic and export demand, declines in diesel Motor vehicle bodies & parts 0.7 -8.0 2.7 Production as % Manufacturing: 8.0
popularity, model re-locations, and distortions from no-deal- Car sales -6.8 -0.7 1.3 Motor vehicles 6.7
contingency plant shutdowns weigh on activity. Commercial vehicles sales -1.8 1.9 0.6 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 1.3
Light cv sales -0.9 2.8 0.9
• In particular, the sharp drop in 2019 Q2 was exacerbated by a number
Heavy cv sales -8.3 -5.5 -1.5
of UK plants rescheduling shutdown periods from August to April. This
action was taken to safeguard against a possible short‐term parts‐supply
Commercial vehicles production 4.5 0.4 21.0
disruption in the event of a no‐deal Brexit, given the original scheduled
Light cv production 4.7 0.0 27.7
departure for March 2019.
Heavy cv production 3.8 1.6 -3.2
• Our baseline forecast expects an extension to the current deadline (35% UK: Sale of new cars and consumption UK: Sale of commercial vehicles and investment
probability), but we see a not insignificant chance of a no-deal (30% % year Sale of commercial vehicles
probability), % year % year
15 4 35
Private non-residential investment
• If the UK were to crash out of the EU with 'no-deal', output in the 10 3 30
automotive sector would face severe disruption. Trade costs would rise as 2 25
5 20
tariffs are imposed and non-tariff barriers are erected. 1
15
0 0 10
• For an industry which, for many OEMs, sustainably operating above a 5% Car sales (LHS) -1 5
profit margin is difficult, rising costs would be unwelcome. This could make -5
-2 0
locating production in the UK less attractive. -10 H\hold consumption -5
(RHS) Forecast -3 -10 Forecast
Growth drivers/constraints -15 -4 -15
Χ Persistent uncertainty – the nature of Brexit remains unclear, causing 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
potential further delays or declines in business investment Source: Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive Source: Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive
Χ Higher list prices – new car sales now facing pressures, not least from UK: Interest & exchange rates UK: Automotive fuel prices
post-lease used vehicles BOE interest rate (LHS) 2010=100 pence per litre
%
Χ European capacity rationalisation – PSA takeover threatens closure of 3.0 Real effective exchange rate (RHS) 140 160 Diesel Petrol
Ellesmere Port plant
2.5 120 150
100 140
2.0
80 130
1.5
60 120
Risks/other important points 1.0
40 110
• Controls on labour movement from the withdrawal agreement will be
0.5 Forecast 20 100
disruptive even if tariff-free EU trade is sustained.
0.0 0 90
• The next Astra model may well go elsewhere, leading to the closure of 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ellesmere Port. Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source: ONS/Haver Analytics
• The closure of Ford's engine part in Bridgend from 2020 will weigh on
the expected recovery in bodies and parts output.

Motor vehicles - Japan
Pre-tax hike boost expected in 2019 Japan: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
Motor vehicles & parts 1.1 1.1 -2.0 Share of global production: 14.2
• 2019 and 2020 are expected to see some volatility in the automotive Motor vehicles 0.4 2.2 -2.8 Production as % of GDP: 3.3
market. We expect robust sales and production in the first few quarters of Motor vehicle bodies & parts 2.2 -0.4 -0.7 Production as % Manufacturing: 15.7
the year, ahead of the planned consumption tax increase in October, at the Car sales 0.1 1.4 -6.6 Motor vehicles 9.3
expense of 2020 growth. This mirrors the profile expected in other Commercial vehicles sales 3.3 1.2 -3.4 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 6.4
consumer-facing sectors. Light cv sales 4.2 2.0 -4.6
Heavy cv sales -4.2 -6.5 7.8
• Over the medium-term, production prospects are weak. Japan’s rapidly
Car production 0.2 2.2 -3.1
ageing population will lead to fewer drivers, while the younger generation
Commercial vehicles production 2.1 2.5 -2.5
has very little interest in driving, particularly in urban areas, leading to a fall
Light cv production 1.0 2.1 -3.5
in vehicle ownership.
Heavy cv production 6.7 3.9 1.1
• In addition, Japanese automotive manufacturers are expected to face Japan: Sale of new cars and consumption Japan: Sale of commercial vehicles and
ongoing pressures from automotive manufacturers in Asia locating investment
% year % year % year % year
production closer to their final market, attracted by the lower cost of 80 Car sales (LHS)
8 Sale of commercial vehicles (LHS)
production in emerging Asia. Household consumption Private non-residential investment (RHS)
60 6 60 12
(RHS) 50 10
• Fluctuations in the currency exchange rate could also have an influence 40 4 40 8
on where to locate production. However, as the exchange rate remains 20 2 30 6
fairly stable for now, at around ¥106 to the US dollar, automakers will be 20 4
0 0
mindful of the risks of shifting production, to avoid any price changes from 10 2
future exchange rate oscillations. -20 -2 0 0
-10 -2
-40 -4 Forecast
Forecast -20 -4
Growth drivers/constraints -60 -6 -30 -6
✓ Significant overseas operations – limits the impact of yen volatility, 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
albeit at the expense of plants within Japan. Source: Haver Analytics/Oxford Economics/ LMC Source: Haver Analytics/Oxford Economics/LMC
Χ Mini-vehicle fuel-efficiency issues – another example for industry Japan: Interest & exchange rates Japan: Inflation
regulators to cite in favour of tighter supervision. BOJ interest rate (LHS) % year
% 2010=100
Χ Technological developments – competitors ahead in battery and 0.10 Real effective exchange rate (RHS) 120 3.5 CPI Adjusted for Consumption Tax CPI
driverless technologies and in acquisitions of tech firms. 0.08 3.0
100 2.5
0.06
2.0
0.04 80
1.5
0.02
60 1.0
0.00
Risks/other important points -0.02 40
0.5
0.0
• Ageing population and weak wage growth point to a continual decline -0.04
20 -0.5
in domestic car sales. -0.06 Forecast -1.0
-0.08 0 -1.5
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : BOJ/Ministry of Internal Affairs/Haver Analytics

Motor vehicles - China
Chinese auto market is faltering China: Motor vehicles Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
Motor vehicles & parts 5.2 1.6 3.7 Share of global production: 22.3
• The Chinese automotive market in 2019 is set for its weakest growth Motor vehicles 7.2 -2.6 3.3 Production as % of GDP: 1.7
in at least 30 years. A damaging combination of faltering consumer Motor vehicle bodies & parts 4.2 3.6 3.8 Production as % Manufacturing: 6.3
confidence, distortions from the new State VI emissions standards, and an Car sales -3.3 -4.6 2.7 Motor vehicles 2.1
expectation of coming government-supported incentives have combined to Commercial vehicles sales 7.7 -6.6 0.9 Motor vehicle bodies & parts 4.3
create weak vehicle demand conditions. Light cv sales 8.5 -6.3 4.1
Heavy cv sales 5.9 -7.2 -7.0
• The main disruption caused by the implementation of State VI emissions
limits has been high inventories of State V models in dealerships,
Commercial vehicles production 0.6 -2.2 0.5
which left distributors without capacity to purchase State VI models from
Light cv production 4.8 -1.9 3.5
OEMs. Some brands offered considerable promotions on State V models in
Heavy cv production -8.1 -10.3 -6.7
Q3 2019 to accelerate the inventory release. This is the main reason for
the crash in wholesales and production in Q3. China: Sales of new cars & consumption China: Investment & sale of commercial vehicles
• In 2020, we expect output to pick up slightly, but remain weak in a % year Car sales (LHS) % year % year
35 21 60
historical content. The market will continue to be disrupted 30 Household consumption (RHS) Forecast 18 50 Sale of commercial vehicles Forecast
by the renewed escalation in the US-China trade war and the 25 15
implementation of the State VI standard. 20 12 40 Private non-residential investment
15 9 30
10 6
• Looking ahead, we forecast an average annual growth rate of around 4% 5 3 20
between 2021‐2024. The country’s vehicle density is still substantially 0 0 10
lower than in developed countries, leaving ample scope for growth over -5 -3 0
-10 -6
the medium and longer term. -15 -9 -10
-20 -12 -20
Growth drivers/constraints 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
✓ Policy is still being set to hit planned growth targets – debt build-up Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive
concerns aside, Chinese policymakers remain willing and able to support China: Interest & exchange rates China: Credit and money growth
planned GDP growth. PBC interest rate (LHS) % year
% 2010=100
✓ Low vehicle densities – underpins demand as household incomes rise. 5.0 Real effective exchange rate (RHS) 135 30 M2 Bank Loans Total Credit*
Χ Pollution and congestion concerns – but global marques in best 4.5 130 25
position to offer more fuel-efficient, less polluting vehicles. 125
4.0
120 20
3.5 115 15
3.0 110
Risks/other important points 105 10
2.5
• President Trump’s efforts to better control China’s acquisition of 100
5
2.0
intellectual property might have impact on technical innovation in the Forecast 95 *Total social financing
automotive market. 1.5 90 0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
• Conflict between the likelihood of rising vehicle densities and Source :Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
pollution/congestion/climate change goals.

Motor vehicles - Emergers ex. China
Central Europe driving EM growth Motor vehicles & parts Key parameters - Motor vehicles (%) -
Forecast highlights 2018 2019 2020 Brazil
Share of global production: 1.4
• The slowdown in India’s automotive market has been more pronounced Brazil 12.5 2.9 2.9 Production as % Manufacturing: 8.1
than we had anticipated, prompting us to lower our 2019 and 2020 Russia 11.9 -4.6 5.8 Russia
forecast. India 17.8 -5.7 3.5 Share of global production: 0.6
Korea 0.2 -0.1 2.9 Production as % Manufacturing: 3.2
• The longer‐term outlook for the Indian market remains positive, supported
Eastern Europe 4.6 5.2 3.2 India
by increasing demand from the emerging middle class, and the
Share of global production: 2.3
relocation of production to India.
Production as % Manufacturing: 5.9
• The Turkish market is expected to suffer another year of decline in 2019, Eastern Europe
primarily due to the sharp contraction in the domestic market. Share of global production: 3.5
Producers that are most dependent upon the local market, such as TOFAŞ Production as % Manufacturing: 13.2
and Honda, have been hit hardest. Beyond 2019, the weaker domestic Brazil: Motor vehicles Russia: Motor vehicles
market will continue to hinder output. % year Motor vehicles & parts output % year Motor vehicles & parts output
New car production 80 New car production
50
• By contrast, the medium-term outlook across the Central and Eastern Sales of new cars Sales of new cars
40 60
European market – especially Hungary and Slovakia – is solid.
30
Existing plans to increase production capacity – partly at the expense of 40
20
Western European plants – underpin a strong forecast. 10
20
0 0
-10 -20
-20
-30 Forecast -40 Forecast
Growth drivers/constraints -40 -60
✓ Dynamic sales growth potential – real household incomes are 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
increasingly passing the point when vehicle ownership becomes Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive
affordable
India: Motor vehicles Eastern Europe: Motor vehicles
✓ Competitive investment environment – but capacity utilisation needs to % year
Motor vehicles & parts output
% year Motor vehicles & parts output
pick up first in Russia and South America 40 New car production
New car production 25 Sales of new cars
Χ President Trump trade threat – to supplying US vehicle and parts' from 30
Sales of new cars
20
non-US locations
20 15
Χ Volatility – sharp cycles hit consumer & business confidence
10
10
Risks/other important points 0
5
0
• The threat of US tariffs on EU autos could have a marked impact on -10
Central and Eastern European markets such as Hungary which export Forecast -5 Forecast
autos to the US, as well as markets such as the Czech Republic and -20 -10
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Poland which play a key role in EU auto supply chains.
Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive Source :Haver Analytics/LMC Automotive
• Conflict between the likelihood of rising vehicle densities and
pollution/congestion/climate change goals.

Motor vehicles - Sector basics
Key macro drivers
• Demand for personal vehicles (cars and US light
Motor vehicles: Value added in 2018 (US$ 2015 prices) Core components Nace Code
trucks) comes from households, driven by their real
disposable incomes, confidence in employment China 22.3% Motor vehicles & parts 29
prospects, the age of their cars, and running and other Russia 0.6% Motor vehicles 29.1
costs. India 2.3%
Motor vehicle bodies & parts 29.2 & 29.3
• Firms' commercial vehicle demand depends upon Brazil 1.4%
business confidence, investment spending plans and Japan 14.2% Registration of new cars Table 5*
distribution trends, with heavy vehicle sales also affected US 16.8% Registration of new light cvs Ɨ Table 6*
by sector cycles such as in construction. Spain 1.0%
UK 2.1% Reg of new heavy cvs (inc coaches) Table 8*
• As big-ticket purchases, vehicle demand tends to be
Italy 1.3% Production of new cars Table 1*
more cyclical than for other industries.
France 1.7% Production of new light cvs
• Accounting for around 9% of manufacturing, this high- Germany 12.6%
Table 2*
profile sector both benefits and suffers from EU-EE 3.5% Prod of new heavy cvs (inc coaches) Table 4*
policymakers' attentions. Other 20.3%
Source: Oxford Economics Consistent with NACE definitions
* Global Car & Truck Forecast , LMC Automotive
Ɨ Light commercial vehicles are those of less than 6 tonnes

gross vehicle weight & include North American "light trucks"
Longer term trends

• Dynamic emerging markets' vehicle demand and
already-high vehicle densities in developed countries are
shifting the industry's global centre of gravity, both
in terms of sales and output bases.
Motor vehicles & parts: Production as a % of world Vehicle registrations: Sales as % of world
• Long-term considerations are: US Europe China Japan India Other
US Europe China Japan India Other
1. The drop in driving prevalence amongst the
% Forecast %
younger generation in developed countries; Forecast
100 100
2. Technological developments in both vehicle
powertrains, their self-driving capabilities and 90 90
ownership models; 80 80
70 70
3. The potential conflict between rising global 60 60
vehicle densities and climate-change, pollution and 50 50
congestion objectives.
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
1993 2003 2013 2018 2023 2028 1993 2003 2013 2018 2023 2028
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/ LMC Automotive

2019 Q3 Motor vehicles and parts annex tables
Motor vehicles and parts

(Annual percentage changes unless specified)
2013-2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-2028 2018
US$bn (2015 prices)
Austria 4.1 10.5 8.2 -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -0.2 3.0 4.82
Belgium 2.3 -8.9 17.0 -3.3 -5.5 2.6 -2.4 -0.1 2.28
Denmark 3.1 -2.2 -14.4 -0.4 2.7 2.6 2.4 1.6 0.16
Finland 12.2 -5.5 5.0 2.1 2.8 -9.7 -6.7 3.0 0.31
France 3.4 0.2 0.6 -9.6 6.7 6.1 4.8 2.1 17.57
Germany 3.9 -2.0 -9.3 1.0 1.7 3.3 -0.9 0.0 132.42
Greece -5.4 -3.7 -18.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 0.06
Ireland 15.0 15.7 1.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.3 0.22
Italy 6.5 -2.8 -6.5 5.1 13.2 0.2 -1.0 1.0 13.46
Luxembourg 2.4 12.1 1.0 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.5 0.01
Netherlands 13.8 7.3 0.5 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 2.2 4.26
Portugal 7.6 11.4 4.1 -5.7 -5.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.73
Spain 6.6 -2.2 1.5 7.7 -0.9 -2.5 -1.5 1.2 10.50
Sweden 7.8 8.2 1.2 3.1 8.4 -8.0 -1.5 3.5 14.44
UK 5.8 -1.5 -8.0 2.9 2.1 -3.9 4.3 -0.9 21.76
EU15 4.7 -0.8 -6.1 0.9 2.9 1.2 -0.1 0.6 223.00
Australia -7.7 -6.2 -10.0 -1.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.6 0.8 2.22
Canada 0.3 -1.3 -2.5 -4.2 -9.6 5.0 5.7 1.5 14.31
Japan 2.0 1.1 1.1 -2.0 2.0 1.4 -0.6 0.2 149.66
New Zealand 3.0 7.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.8 0.55
Norway 6.4 2.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.8 0.44
Switzerland -2.0 5.4 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.2 0.79
US 5.1 5.9 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.7 1.4 176.89
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 3.8 1.7 -2.1 -0.1 2.1 2.3 0.2 0.8 567.87
Bulgaria -12.1 16.9 8.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.5 0.00
Croatia 8.0 14.8 5.0 5.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 3.8 0.03
Cyprus 0.7 -0.6 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.5 0.00
Czech Republic 8.2 0.4 2.8 0.6 3.4 2.4 3.7 1.4 11.67
Estonia 14.2 0.5 -4.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 0.01
Hungary 10.8 -0.4 11.3 3.9 2.7 9.8 9.8 2.7 5.13
Latvia 9.8 22.0 2.7 4.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 0.01
Lithuania 13.6 6.1 9.3 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 1.2 0.18
Malta 3.5 2.1 -4.9 -0.8 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.8 0.00
Poland 6.6 2.9 4.7 -0.3 -6.0 8.8 10.1 2.8 10.33
Romania 11.0 12.7 4.0 11.3 10.5 -1.5 -2.5 1.5 4.71
Slovak Republic 10.7 19.3 6.7 8.3 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 2.9 4.59
Slovenia 7.0 5.4 -3.2 7.9 4.1 -6.5 -11.8 -0.5 0.04
EASTERN EUROPE (EU13) 8.7 4.6 5.2 3.2 1.1 4.1 5.0 2.2 36.72
Brazil -6.7 12.5 2.9 2.9 4.5 6.8 5.2 2.4 15.10
Russia -4.5 11.9 -4.6 5.8 6.4 6.1 5.1 3.4 5.81
India 5.4 17.8 -5.7 3.5 3.7 5.6 6.0 7.5 23.76
China 12.3 5.2 1.6 3.7 4.6 5.0 4.4 3.5 235.16
BRICs 9.6 6.6 0.9 3.6 4.5 5.2 4.6 3.8 279.83
Turkey 12.2 -3.4 -4.3 2.3 1.2 -2.1 4.3 2.6 12.02
Ukraine -11.1 12.7 12.5 12.9 8.9 6.2 3.9 4.8 0.05
Hong Kong -0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.06
Indonesia 6.7 5.0 -0.1 4.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 4.3 1.61
South Korea 2.8 0.2 -0.1 2.9 -3.2 3.3 1.4 0.7 43.23
Malaysia 3.9 6.6 7.3 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.6 3.9 5.49
Pakistan 1.2 3.3 -14.1 8.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 4.4 1.06
Philippines 4.2 -2.7 6.7 13.3 13.2 3.0 0.9 4.6 0.84
Singapore 12.8 -2.5 -4.6 10.1 30.3 15.4 2.6 1.9 0.93
Taiwan 1.4 -6.4 -1.2 6.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 1.8 4.60
Thailand -1.5 8.2 -1.8 0.9 4.4 3.7 3.4 3.7 34.78
Vietnam 14.8 17.9 -8.7 7.2 5.7 5.5 3.6 5.0 0.79
Argentina -15.9 14.7 -8.0 7.2 31.4 28.0 6.4 4.7 1.65
Chile -5.7 -16.8 -6.2 6.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.4 0.41
Colombia -7.6 8.7 11.6 3.3 -4.9 2.9 -1.5 1.4 0.50
Ecuador 4.1 19.3 -2.8 -9.7 4.2 -2.1 -0.6 0.6 0.44
Mexico 6.2 3.5 2.3 -2.6 0.6 0.6 3.8 2.7 42.22
Uruguay -0.6 8.6 -15.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 6.8 0.75
Venezuela -12.5 0.8 -51.0 15.1 51.6 43.2 11.9 9.1 0.59
Algeria 53.1 9.0 15.5 13.9 14.8 6.0 8.7 1.8 0.01
Angola -17.7 12.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 0.01
Bahrain 11.3 42.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.21
Egypt 3.4 8.2 6.9 15.4 2.6 -0.2 1.4 5.8 4.13
Iran -1.9 -5.1 -21.0 9.9 16.9 17.0 10.6 7.0 5.60
Iraq 0.8 5.7 2.8 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.0 0.34
Israel -2.6 -1.3 -12.1 -2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.2 0.68
Kuwait -3.5 4.1 4.6 3.2 3.2 4.1 4.0 4.3 0.01
Morocco 12.1 9.8 1.6 18.9 13.2 2.8 -0.1 1.7 0.53
Nigeria -30.2 -2.6 10.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 8.8 4.9 0.00
Oman -1.8 -1.2 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.1 3.5 4.1 0.51
Qatar 19.9 6.2 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.1 0.01
Saudi Arabia 4.7 3.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.6 0.74
South Africa 1.2 4.3 3.0 5.6 1.4 8.0 5.3 2.1 2.66
Tunisia -8.2 5.5 15.1 6.2 6.3 4.0 5.9 3.6 0.02
United Arab Emirates -19.9 -3.6 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.8 0.02
EMERGING MARKETS 6.7 5.1 0.6 3.1 3.4 4.5 4.2 3.4 484.94
WORLD 5.1 3.2 -0.8 1.4 2.7 3.3 2.1 2.1 1052.81
Note: Output is measured in 2015 prices, unless otherwise stated.
Page i Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

2019 Q3 Motor vehicles and parts annex tables
Motor vehicles and parts shares
% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

2018 2023 2018 2023 2018 2023
Austria 6.64 6.41 1.31 1.26 0.46 0.44
Belgium 3.83 3.79 0.53 0.54 0.22 0.21
Denmark 0.39 0.31 0.06 0.05 0.00 0.00
Finland 0.80 0.68 0.14 0.13 0.03 0.02
France 6.74 6.95 0.77 0.77 1.67 1.65
Germany 17.40 16.58 4.10 3.74 12.58 11.01
Greece 0.33 0.26 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00
Ireland 0.18 0.19 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.02
Italy 4.70 5.09 0.79 0.85 1.28 1.30
Luxembourg 0.43 0.44 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00
Netherlands 4.55 3.94 0.58 0.49 0.40 0.34
Portugal 2.80 2.51 0.39 0.35 0.07 0.06
Spain 6.31 6.10 0.89 0.85 1.00 0.95
Sweden 19.34 18.30 3.05 2.83 1.37 1.29
UK 8.01 7.47 0.79 0.71 2.07 1.84
EU15 9.71 9.19 1.55 1.43 21.18 19.15
Australia 2.88 2.37 0.18 0.14 0.21 0.17
Canada 8.05 7.06 0.92 0.81 1.36 1.17
Japan 15.74 15.93 3.31 3.26 14.22 13.29
New Zealand 2.65 2.68 0.31 0.56 0.05 0.05
Norway 1.73 1.76 0.12 0.13 0.04 0.04
Switzerland 0.58 0.57 0.11 0.12 0.08 0.08
US 7.39 7.41 0.91 0.89 16.81 16.69
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES 9.34 9.06 1.34 1.27 53.94 50.65
Bulgaria 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

Croatia 0.47 0.52 0.07 0.08 0.00 0.00
Cyprus 0.24 0.26 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Czech Republic 22.19 22.45 6.30 6.46 1.11 1.15
Estonia 0.26 0.22 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00
Hungary 18.75 22.04 4.42 5.42 0.49 0.64
Latvia 0.45 0.45 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00
Lithuania 2.25 2.29 0.45 0.47 0.02 0.02
Malta 0.51 0.49 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00
Poland 10.96 10.90 2.15 2.19 0.98 1.06
Romania 11.47 12.33 2.63 2.82 0.45 0.50
Slovak Republic 22.00 22.58 5.26 5.30 0.44 0.45
Slovenia 0.37 0.28 0.09 0.07 0.00 0.00
EASTERN EUROPE (EU13) 13.23 13.70 2.82 2.96 3.49 3.84
Brazil 8.14 9.33 0.99 1.12 1.43 1.63

Russia 3.21 3.49 0.46 0.52 0.55 0.61
India 5.87 4.99 1.00 0.83 2.26 2.35
China 6.33 6.08 1.71 1.56 22.33 24.73
BRICs 6.24 6.00 1.48 1.37 26.58 29.32
Turkey 7.31 6.83 1.39 1.24 0.29 0.26

Ukraine 0.45 0.59 0.06 0.08 0.01 0.01
Hong Kong 1.60 1.57 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00

Indonesia 0.79 0.76 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16
South Korea 10.10 9.47 2.95 2.74 4.11 3.93
Malaysia 7.03 7.64 1.53 1.63 0.52 0.63
Pakistan 2.69 2.32 0.36 0.31 0.10 0.09
Philippines 1.18 1.29 0.24 0.26 0.08 0.10
Singapore 1.36 1.98 0.36 0.53 0.09 0.13
Taiwan 2.60 2.61 0.84 0.84 0.44 0.44
Thailand 29.23 29.52 7.83 7.52 3.33 3.34
Vietnam 2.07 1.65 0.38 0.32 0.08 0.08
Argentina 1.97 3.57 0.31 0.51 0.16 0.25

Chile 1.37 1.24 0.17 0.16 0.04 0.04
Colombia 1.34 1.29 0.18 0.17 0.05 0.05
Ecuador 3.02 2.53 0.47 0.39 0.04 0.03
Mexico 19.34 19.02 3.58 3.45 4.01 3.85
Uruguay 10.80 9.79 1.54 1.37 0.07 0.07
Venezuela 4.59 4.09 0.68 0.89 0.06 0.07
Angola 0.07 0.11 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

Algeria 0.08 0.08 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Bahrain 3.52 3.95 0.60 0.68 0.02 0.02
Egypt 6.85 6.92 1.07 1.07 0.39 0.46
Iran 10.19 12.84 1.24 1.63 0.54 0.64
Iraq 8.95 10.94 0.19 0.24 0.03 0.04
Israel 1.75 1.38 0.23 0.18 0.07 0.05
Kuwait 0.11 0.12 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Morocco 3.07 3.65 0.55 0.65 0.05 0.06
Nigeria 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oman 6.47 7.30 0.68 0.72 0.05 0.05
Qatar 0.09 0.10 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Saudi Arabia 0.84 0.98 0.11 0.13 0.07 0.08
South Africa 6.85 7.92 0.91 1.06 0.25 0.29
Tunisia 0.24 0.32 0.04 0.05 0.00 0.00
United Arab Emirates 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EMERGING MARKETS 6.85 6.62 1.45 1.38 46.06 49.35
WORLD 8.00 7.67 1.39 1.32 100 100
Page ii Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

2019 Q3 Motor vehicles and parts annex tables 1968
Europe, Middle East and Africa: Motor vehicles & parts Detailed output
NACE 29 Value Added Index, 2015=100
NACE rev 2 Average 5 year % growth
industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Austria
Motor vehicles & engines 29.1 116.6 122.9 121.5 119.4 118.2 117.7
% change y-o-y 7.9 5.3 -1.1 -1.8 -0.9 -0.5 7.6 2.5 4.5 4.1 0.2 2.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 125.5 139.9 138.0 136.4 136.0 136.2
% change y-o-y 13.7 11.5 -1.4 -1.1 -0.3 0.2 5.6 4.7 -0.2 5.3 1.7 3.4
Total 29 120.5 130.4 128.8 126.9 126.0 125.8

% change y-o-y 10.5 8.2 -1.2 -1.5 -0.7 -0.2 6.6 3.6 2.3 4.6 0.9 3.0
Belgium
% change y-o-y -10.5 13.4 -4.7 -6.2 2.4 -2.6 2.9 -0.6 -1.2 0.4 0.2 -0.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 93.5 114.8 113.5 108.6 111.8 109.5
% change y-o-y -6.0 22.9 -1.2 -4.3 2.9 -2.1 1.2 2.4 -3.5 0.9 3.2 0.2
Total 29 89.7 105.0 101.5 96.0 98.5 96.2

% change y-o-y -8.9 17.0 -3.3 -5.5 2.6 -2.4 2.3 0.5 -2.1 0.6 1.4 -0.1
Denmark
% change y-o-y -5.9 -19.8 -0.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.3 -4.7 -3.6 2.7 -2.7 2.0
Make sure you have a pdf writer 29.2,29.3 122.5 107.1 106.7 109.4 112.1 114.6
selected
% changebefore
y-o-y choosing this option -0.8 -0.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 0.4 -2.8 -8.0 3.9 -1.3 1.5
Total 29 120.3 102.5 105.3 108.0 110.6

% change y-o-y -2.2 -14.4 -0.4 2.7 2.6 2.4 0.8 -3.2 -6.9 3.6 -1.7 1.6
Finland
% change y-o-y -7.2 9.6 -1.5 1.0 -56.0 -90.0 0.1 3.8 -8.9 4.2 -45.5 -0.1
Make sure you have a pdf writer 29.2,29.3 117.9 122.2 126.1 130.4 134.9 139.5
selected
% changebefore
y-o-y choosing this option -5.0 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.4 8.4 3.8 -6.1 7.5 3.4 3.1
Total 29 116.0 121.8 124.3 127.8 115.5 107.8

% change y-o-y -5.5 5.0 2.1 2.8 -9.7 -6.7 5.6 3.8 -6.8 6.7 -1.5 3.0
France
% change y-o-y 4.8 2.8 -13.6 9.2 6.4 4.0 7.9 -3.9 -4.9 6.1 1.4 1.2
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 103.8 101.7 96.9 100.8 106.5 112.5
% change y-o-y -4.7 -2.0 -4.8 4.0 5.7 5.7 7.4 -1.5 -1.6 3.1 1.6 3.1
Total 29 110.4 111.1 100.4 107.1 113.6 119.1

% change y-o-y 0.2 0.6 -9.6 6.7 6.1 4.8 7.7 -2.8 -3.3 4.6 1.5 2.1
Germany
% change y-o-y -3.8 -11.8 1.3 1.3 3.1 -1.1 4.0 1.5 3.3 2.8 -1.6 -0.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 115.4 112.1 112.7 115.4 119.9 119.4
% change y-o-y 3.2 -2.9 0.5 2.4 3.9 -0.4 6.6 3.2 2.4 3.7 0.7 0.5
Total 29 106.9 96.9 98.0 99.6 102.9 102.0

% change y-o-y -2.0 -9.3 1.0 1.7 3.3 -0.9 4.7 2.0 3.1 3.1 -0.9 0.0
Greece
% change y-o-y 7.3 -55.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 3.5 -1.9 -37.1 36.3 -13.7 2.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 79.0 83.0 84.5 86.0 87.7 89.6
% change y-o-y -9.6 5.0 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 - -19.4 -0.2 -13.2 2.5 2.1
Total 29 89.3 72.9 74.2 75.5 77.0 78.6

% change y-o-y -3.7 -18.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.1 - -14.6 -8.7 -5.5 -2.5 2.1
Ireland
% change y-o-y 15.7 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.5 - -9.4 -30.6 21.7 2.2 2.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 144.6 146.6 151.8 157.0 162.2 167.8
% change y-o-y 15.7 1.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 9.2 -0.3 -13.4 20.2 3.0 3.3
Total 29 144.6 146.6 151.8 156.9 162.1 167.8

% change y-o-y 15.7 1.4 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 8.3 -0.7 -13.8 20.2 3.0 3.3
Italy
% change y-o-y -5.3 -9.4 7.3 21.7 -0.8 -0.6 -1.9 -1.6 -6.7 12.6 3.1 1.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 99.9 95.9 99.1 105.5 106.8 105.4
% change y-o-y -0.7 -4.0 3.4 6.4 1.2 -1.3 -2.4 3.5 -6.0 2.7 1.1 0.7
Total 29 105.5 98.7 103.7 117.5 117.8 116.6

% change y-o-y -2.8 -6.5 5.1 13.2 0.2 -1.0 -2.2 1.5 -6.2 6.5 2.0 1.0
Page iii Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Luxembourg
% change y-o-y 12.1 1.0 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 6.3 9.8 -4.9 2.5 2.4 2.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 94.4 95.4 98.9 101.6 104.1 106.3
% change y-o-y 12.1 1.0 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 6.2 11.0 -3.9 2.5 2.4 2.5
Total 29 94.4 95.4 98.9 101.7 104.1 106.3

% change y-o-y 12.1 1.0 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 6.3 10.1 -4.7 2.5 2.4 2.5
Netherlands
% change y-o-y 6.1 -1.7 -3.2 -2.8 -3.9 -3.7 2.0 2.5 -3.5 16.6 -3.1 2.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 160.3 172.8 174.9 175.7 175.0 173.7
% change y-o-y 11.9 7.8 1.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.7 0.1 4.6 -7.9 18.0 1.6 1.7
Total 29 151.4 152.2 149.0 146.0 141.6 137.5

% change y-o-y 7.3 0.5 -2.1 -2.0 -3.0 -2.9 1.5 3.0 -4.6 16.9 -1.9 2.2
Portugal
% change y-o-y 11.4 1.1 -5.7 -5.3 0.9 0.5 0.8 -5.8 -15.1 8.5 -1.8 0.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 125.3 132.8 125.1 118.5 119.6 120.2
% change y-o-y 11.4 6.0 -5.7 -5.3 0.9 0.5 9.3 5.0 -15.1 8.5 -0.8 0.3
Total 29 125.3 130.4 122.9 116.4 117.4 118.0

% change y-o-y 11.4 4.1 -5.7 -5.3 0.9 0.5 4.4 -0.1 -15.1 8.5 -1.2 0.3
Spain
% change y-o-y -1.9 3.0 11.1 -1.6 -2.7 -1.7 4.0 -0.6 -1.5 5.9 1.5 1.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 108.0 108.0 112.6 112.4 109.8 108.3
% change y-o-y -2.4 0.0 4.2 -0.2 -2.3 -1.3 6.6 -1.4 -0.4 4.7 0.1 1.4
Total 29 107.0 108.6 117.0 115.9 113.0 111.2

% change y-o-y -2.2 1.5 7.7 -0.9 -2.5 -1.5 5.3 -1.0 -0.9 5.3 0.8 1.2
Sweden
% change y-o-y 2.4 -6.6 2.4 6.3 -12.8 -5.4 12.6 1.8 3.2 6.2 -3.5 2.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 143.4 148.8 153.6 167.5 156.4 155.6
% change y-o-y 10.2 3.8 3.3 9.0 -6.6 -0.5 9.1 6.9 -4.1 8.5 1.6 3.8
Total 29 139.6 141.3 145.6 157.9 145.3 143.1

% change y-o-y 8.2 1.2 3.1 8.4 -8.0 -1.5 9.9 5.7 -2.4 7.9 0.5 3.5
United Kingdom
% change y-o-y -1.9 -8.0 3.0 2.2 -3.7 4.4 0.2 -1.5 3.6 3.2 -0.5 -0.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 145.2 133.6 137.2 139.3 132.9 137.4
% change y-o-y 0.7 -8.0 2.6 1.5 -4.6 3.4 0.2 1.0 -7.4 7.4 -1.1 -1.7
Total 29 104.8 96.5 99.3 101.4 97.5 101.6

% change y-o-y -1.5 -8.0 2.9 2.1 -3.9 4.3 0.2 -1.0 1.6 3.8 -0.6 -0.9
EU15
% change y-o-y -2.5 -8.8 0.8 2.6 1.3 -0.2 3.6 0.4 2.0 3.8 -1.0 0.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 116.5 115.3 116.3 120.3 121.7 122.0
% change y-o-y 2.6 -1.1 0.9 3.5 1.1 0.3 4.7 2.6 -1.1 4.5 0.9 1.4
Total 29 109.3 102.6 103.5 106.5 107.8 107.7

% change y-o-y -0.8 -6.1 0.9 2.9 1.2 -0.1 4.0 1.2 0.9 4.1 -0.3 0.6
Bulgaria
% change y-o-y 16.9 8.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 - 1.3 -22.6 -6.6 4.2 3.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 136.2 147.6 151.9 156.6 161.7 167.1
% change y-o-y 16.9 8.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 21.0 27.3 -5.7 -3.5 4.2 3.5
Total 29 136.2 147.6 151.9 156.6 161.7 167.1

% change y-o-y 16.9 8.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.3 -2.4 16.3 -9.1 -3.8 4.2 3.5
Croatia
% change y-o-y 11.5 5.7 4.5 3.3 3.0 3.2 13.3 13.9 -1.3 9.6 4.0 2.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 127.6 133.4 142.1 149.8 157.4 165.7
% change y-o-y 17.7 4.5 6.6 5.4 5.1 5.3 16.4 10.9 -5.8 10.8 5.4 4.7
Total 29 125.8 132.2 139.6 145.8 151.9 158.6

% change y-o-y 14.8 5.0 5.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 15.2 12.1 -3.9 10.2 4.7 3.8
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industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Cyprus
% change y-o-y 0.3 2.5 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.8 17.8 -3.1 -2.6 -1.2 3.7 3.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 109.3 116.3 122.8 129.0 134.9 141.4
% change y-o-y -0.9 6.4 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.8 14.1 -2.3 -7.6 9.9 5.3 4.7
Total 29 83.2 87.6 92.3 96.7 100.9 105.4

% change y-o-y -0.6 5.3 5.4 4.7 4.4 4.5 15.3 -2.5 -5.8 6.1 4.9 4.5
Czech Republic
% change y-o-y -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 2.8 1.7 2.9 9.0 17.4 8.7 9.1 1.1 0.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 130.7 139.0 141.1 146.5 150.7 157.0
% change y-o-y 2.9 6.4 1.5 3.8 2.9 4.2 6.9 20.0 3.7 10.4 3.7 1.9
Total 29 126.3 129.9 130.7 135.1 138.3 143.4

% change y-o-y 0.4 2.8 0.6 3.4 2.4 3.7 7.8 18.9 5.8 9.8 2.6 1.4
Estonia
% change y-o-y 0.5 -4.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 8.8 4.9 -7.4 14.4 1.2 2.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 162.8 155.6 160.2 164.4 168.5 173.2
% change y-o-y 0.5 -4.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 9.0 4.9 -7.4 14.4 1.2 2.8
Total 29 162.8 155.6 160.2 164.4 168.5 173.2

% change y-o-y 0.5 -4.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 2.8 8.9 4.9 -7.4 14.4 1.2 2.8
Hungary
% change y-o-y -3.0 6.6 3.3 0.7 13.9 13.4 12.4 8.7 4.1 6.7 7.5 2.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 104.6 121.2 126.7 132.4 140.4 149.4
% change y-o-y 2.3 15.9 4.5 4.5 6.1 6.3 10.3 11.0 -0.7 7.9 7.4 2.6
Total 29 100.8 112.1 116.5 119.7 131.3 144.2

% change y-o-y -0.4 11.3 3.9 2.7 9.8 9.8 11.3 9.9 1.6 7.3 7.4 2.7
Latvia
% change y-o-y 22.0 2.7 4.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 69.6 -38.1 -4.1 10.3 2.9 2.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 157.5 161.8 168.3 172.6 177.3 181.9
% change y-o-y 22.0 2.7 4.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 -8.4 35.2 9.0 10.3 2.9 2.3
Total 29 157.5 161.8 168.3 172.6 177.3 181.9

% change y-o-y 22.0 2.7 4.1 2.6 2.7 2.6 -0.7 24.4 8.9 10.3 2.9 2.3
Lithuania
% change y-o-y 6.1 9.7 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 17.9 7.5 -3.1 12.5 3.7 1.2
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 158.8 173.5 180.4 183.3 187.4 189.7
% change y-o-y 6.1 9.3 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 17.9 7.5 -3.1 12.5 3.6 1.2
Total 29 158.8 173.5 180.4 183.3 187.4 189.7

% change y-o-y 6.1 9.3 3.9 1.6 2.2 1.2 17.9 7.5 -3.1 12.5 3.6 1.2
Malta
% change y-o-y 2.1 -5.0 -0.8 3.1 2.4 2.5 39.5 15.5 13.1 0.5 0.4 2.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 94.5 89.9 89.2 92.0 94.2 96.6
% change y-o-y 2.1 -4.9 -0.8 3.1 2.4 2.5 38.1 15.5 13.1 0.5 0.4 2.8
Total 29 94.5 89.9 89.2 92.0 94.2 96.6

% change y-o-y 2.1 -4.9 -0.8 3.1 2.4 2.5 38.3 15.5 13.1 0.5 0.4 2.8
Poland
% change y-o-y -1.0 -1.7 -7.3 -11.4 17.4 19.4 11.5 19.6 7.7 5.5 2.5 1.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 117.3 125.6 128.2 122.6 130.3 139.6
% change y-o-y 4.5 7.1 2.1 -4.4 6.3 7.2 9.5 22.1 2.8 6.7 3.5 3.1
Total 29 114.9 120.3 119.9 112.7 122.5 135.0

% change y-o-y 2.9 4.7 -0.3 -6.0 8.8 10.1 10.0 21.5 4.1 6.4 3.3 2.8
Romania
% change y-o-y 12.7 1.7 11.3 10.5 -1.5 -2.5 11.6 22.3 8.9 10.9 3.7 1.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 146.1 151.9 169.1 186.9 184.0 179.4
% change y-o-y 12.7 4.0 11.3 10.5 -1.5 -2.5 11.6 22.3 8.9 10.9 4.2 1.5
Total 29 146.1 151.9 169.1 186.9 184.0 179.4

% change y-o-y 12.7 4.0 11.3 10.5 -1.5 -2.5 11.6 22.3 8.9 10.9 4.2 1.5
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industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Slovak Republic
% change y-o-y 19.3 6.7 8.3 -1.6 -0.5 -0.2 13.7 24.7 9.3 14.2 2.4 2.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 138.5 147.7 160.0 160.1 159.3 159.0
% change y-o-y 19.3 6.6 8.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 13.7 24.7 9.3 14.2 2.8 2.9
Total 29 138.5 147.7 159.9 157.9 157.1 156.8

% change y-o-y 19.3 6.7 8.3 -1.3 -0.5 -0.2 13.7 24.7 9.3 14.2 2.5 2.9
Slovenia
% change y-o-y 5.4 -6.2 7.9 4.1 -6.5 -11.8 17.5 16.4 2.1 9.5 -2.8 -0.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 123.9 130.6 140.9 146.6 137.1 120.9
% change y-o-y 5.4 5.4 7.9 4.1 -6.5 -11.8 17.5 16.4 2.1 9.5 -0.5 -0.5
Total 29 123.9 119.9 129.3 134.6 125.8 110.9

% change y-o-y 5.4 -3.2 7.9 4.1 -6.5 -11.8 17.5 16.4 2.1 9.5 -2.2 -0.5
Eastern Europe (EU13)

% change y-o-y 2.6 2.0 1.3 -1.3 5.8 7.0 11.2 16.5 7.5 9.0 2.9 2.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 125.5 134.6 140.5 144.0 148.5 154.0
% change y-o-y 5.9 7.2 4.4 2.5 3.2 3.7 9.4 19.3 3.7 9.0 4.2 2.4
Total 29 122.2 128.5 132.6 134.0 139.6 146.5

% change y-o-y 4.6 5.2 3.2 1.1 4.1 5.0 10.0 18.3 5.1 9.0 3.7 2.2
Norway
% change y-o-y 2.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 0.2 0.7 -2.4 4.8 2.7 2.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 113.3 115.7 119.9 122.9 126.2 129.4
% change y-o-y 2.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 0.2 0.7 -2.4 4.8 2.7 2.8
Total 29 113.3 115.7 119.9 122.9 126.2 129.4

% change y-o-y 2.5 2.1 3.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 0.2 0.7 -2.4 4.8 2.7 2.8
Russia
% change y-o-y 10.7 -2.9 5.5 6.0 5.7 4.7 11.3 3.5 3.8 -4.5 3.8 3.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 132.1 122.2 130.0 139.2 148.5 157.0
% change y-o-y 14.1 -7.4 6.3 7.1 6.7 5.7 14.0 5.3 5.9 1.4 3.5 4.0
Total 29 134.5 128.4 135.9 144.6 153.4 161.1

% change y-o-y 11.9 -4.6 5.8 6.4 6.1 5.1 11.9 4.0 4.4 -2.5 3.7 3.4
Switzerland
% change y-o-y 4.8 1.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.8 0.0 6.6 6.3 -1.1 1.4 1.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 107.2 111.3 115.1 118.5 122.2 126.5
% change y-o-y 6.7 3.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 1.6 7.9 5.4 0.7 3.4 3.5
Total 29 103.1 105.7 107.9 109.7 111.8 114.5

% change y-o-y 5.4 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.4 0.5 7.1 5.9 -0.5 2.1 2.2
Turkey
% change y-o-y -7.1 -3.1 1.7 1.2 -2.1 4.3 2.8 20.0 3.7 8.1 0.3 2.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 116.9 110.5 113.7 115.0 112.6 117.4
% change y-o-y 0.6 -5.5 2.9 1.2 -2.1 4.3 2.8 20.0 10.4 10.0 0.1 2.6
Total 29 121.5 116.2 118.9 120.2 117.7 122.8

% change y-o-y -3.4 -4.3 2.3 1.2 -2.1 4.3 2.8 20.0 6.6 9.0 0.2 2.6
Ukraine
% change y-o-y 12.7 13.1 12.9 8.9 6.2 3.9 14.4 11.3 -12.2 -5.3 8.9 4.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 127.9 142.1 160.4 174.7 185.5 192.7
% change y-o-y 12.7 11.1 12.9 8.9 6.2 3.9 2.0 8.6 -11.7 -4.7 8.5 4.8
Total 29 127.9 143.9 162.4 177.0 187.9 195.2

% change y-o-y 12.7 12.5 12.9 8.9 6.2 3.9 9.7 10.6 -12.1 -5.1 8.8 4.8
Europe
% change y-o-y -2.0 -7.5 1.0 2.3 1.7 0.8 3.9 1.4 2.5 4.0 -0.4 0.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 118.5 118.9 121.1 125.0 126.9 128.6
% change y-o-y 3.4 0.3 1.9 3.2 1.5 1.4 5.1 4.7 0.2 5.6 1.6 1.8
Total 29 111.7 106.7 108.2 111.1 112.9 114.0

% change y-o-y 0.0 -4.5 1.4 2.6 1.6 1.0 4.3 2.6 1.6 4.6 0.4 1.0
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industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Bahrain
% change y-o-y 43.4 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.3 - 41.5 24.7 16.1 4.3 4.2
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 129.2 133.5 136.1 139.4 142.3 145.5
% change y-o-y 20.4 3.3 2.0 2.4 2.1 2.2 - 49.6 6.2 -0.7 2.4 2.1
Total 29 207.0 216.0 224.8 234.7 244.5 254.9

% change y-o-y 42.9 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.2 4.3 - 42.0 23.6 15.6 4.2 4.2
Iran
% change y-o-y -5.3 -21.0 9.9 16.9 17.0 10.6 27.7 57.4 -22.3 17.4 5.6 7.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 117.7 94.2 103.6 121.1 141.7 156.7
% change y-o-y 4.6 -20.0 9.9 16.9 17.0 10.6 12.8 8.1 -47.2 20.5 5.9 7.0
Total 29 106.8 84.4 92.8 108.5 127.0 140.5

% change y-o-y -5.1 -21.0 9.9 16.9 17.0 10.6 18.1 38.7 -24.5 17.5 5.6 7.0
Iraq
% change y-o-y 6.9 2.8 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 -21.1 24.3 17.4 2.5 6.7 7.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 108.6 111.8 120.3 129.8 140.0 150.6
% change y-o-y -4.3 2.9 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 -16.3 9.5 6.6 -6.5 6.8 7.1
Total 29 140.6 144.6 155.6 167.9 181.1 194.9

% change y-o-y 5.7 2.8 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 -19.7 20.1 15.5 1.5 6.7 7.0
Israel
% change y-o-y -1.3 -12.1 -2.7 1.4 1.6 1.4 23.9 5.1 -5.6 -2.9 -2.3 1.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 108.8 95.7 94.2 96.7 99.4 102.0
% change y-o-y -1.3 -12.1 -1.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 23.9 3.9 -3.7 -0.6 -1.3 2.8
Total 29 106.3 93.4 91.4 93.4 95.5 97.4

% change y-o-y -1.3 -12.1 -2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 23.9 4.5 -4.6 -1.7 -1.7 2.2
Kuwait
% change y-o-y 4.2 4.7 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.1 - 232.6 -3.4 0.4 3.9 4.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 679.0 700.1 712.5 724.7 743.5 762.4
% change y-o-y 2.6 3.1 1.8 1.7 2.6 2.6 - 0.5 -41.5 36.6 2.3 2.8
Total 29 110.7 115.8 119.6 123.4 128.4 133.6

% change y-o-y 4.1 4.6 3.2 3.2 4.1 4.0 - 56.1 -5.4 1.1 3.8 4.3
Oman
% change y-o-y -1.4 3.8 4.2 4.4 3.7 3.1 10.4 6.1 -0.1 -5.8 3.9 3.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 108.1 113.1 119.1 125.7 131.7 137.1
% change y-o-y -0.9 4.6 5.3 5.5 4.8 4.1 1.2 7.1 11.6 3.8 4.9 4.7
Total 29 93.3 97.2 101.8 106.7 111.1 115.0

% change y-o-y -1.2 4.1 4.7 4.9 4.1 3.5 8.2 6.3 2.7 -2.5 4.3 4.1
Qatar
% change y-o-y 6.2 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.2 -8.0 63.6 17.2 10.8 3.3 3.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 774.4 793.7 820.0 842.8 866.4 893.8
% change y-o-y 6.2 2.5 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.2 -8.0 28.1 -30.1 88.7 2.9 3.1
Total 29 107.7 112.4 116.1 119.4 122.7 126.6

% change y-o-y 6.2 4.4 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.2 -8.0 61.6 16.6 11.4 3.3 3.1
Saudi Arabia
% change y-o-y 3.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 8.0 66.2 2.1 1.3 5.6 4.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 1050.0 1109.3 1174.3 1240.9 1309.3 1378.5
% change y-o-y 3.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 6.5 11.8 -39.6 83.9 5.6 4.6
Total 29 114.7 121.2 128.3 135.5 143.0 150.6

% change y-o-y 3.5 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 7.5 54.8 0.8 3.2 5.6 4.6
United Arab Emirates

% change y-o-y -3.6 3.3 3.3 2.6 2.8 2.6 13.5 41.2 -6.1 -20.2 2.9 2.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 346.6 354.6 362.7 368.4 375.0 381.1
% change y-o-y -3.6 2.3 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.6 - 10.8 -40.5 21.8 1.9 1.9
Total 29 43.3 44.7 46.1 47.2 48.5 49.7

% change y-o-y -3.6 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 12.5 32.1 -9.1 -18.0 2.8 2.8
Page vii Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Algeria
% change y-o-y 9.4 16.0 14.2 15.1 6.2 9.0 - -2.0 -12.5 14.0 12.0 2.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 2027.3 2280.7 2552.1 2879.4 2998.1 3201.9
% change y-o-y 6.2 12.5 11.9 12.8 4.1 6.8 - -33.2 -24.9 36.7 9.6 0.0
Total 29 143.9 166.2 189.3 217.4 230.4 250.4

% change y-o-y 9.0 15.5 13.9 14.8 6.0 8.7 - -11.7 -13.6 15.9 11.7 1.8
Angola
% change y-o-y 12.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 - 40.8 -10.7 -11.5 3.8 3.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 ###### ###### ###### ###### ###### ######
% change y-o-y 12.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 - 23.3 -44.5 95.5 4.2 4.2
Total 29 618.2 642.1 666.9 692.7 719.5 747.3

% change y-o-y 12.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 - 39.8 -11.4 -8.1 3.9 3.9
Egypt
% change y-o-y 7.4 8.5 15.6 2.7 0.0 1.5 13.0 6.1 4.9 4.5 5.5 5.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 120.2 122.0 140.3 143.5 142.4 143.8
% change y-o-y 10.8 1.4 15.1 2.3 -0.8 1.0 10.4 10.5 1.3 5.7 3.6 5.4
Total 29 109.3 116.8 134.8 138.4 138.1 140.0

% change y-o-y 8.2 6.9 15.4 2.6 -0.2 1.4 12.3 7.2 4.0 4.8 5.1 5.8
Morocco
% change y-o-y 9.8 1.5 19.0 13.2 2.8 -0.1 47.0 24.0 22.4 9.0 7.0 1.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 584.2 622.7 726.2 805.9 811.9 795.1
% change y-o-y 9.8 6.6 16.6 11.0 0.7 -2.1 - -7.4 -48.8 29.1 6.4 -0.3
Total 29 128.1 130.2 154.9 175.3 180.1 179.9

% change y-o-y 9.8 1.6 18.9 13.2 2.8 -0.1 32.0 4.4 10.2 9.3 7.0 1.7
Nigeria
% change y-o-y -2.6 10.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 8.8 -11.9 64.1 21.9 -32.2 5.3 4.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 222.4 246.7 253.8 257.8 265.0 288.4
% change y-o-y -2.6 10.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 8.8 - 17.3 -2.8 -5.2 5.3 4.9
Total 29 41.2 45.7 47.0 47.7 49.0 53.4

% change y-o-y -2.6 10.9 2.8 1.6 2.8 8.8 -16.2 53.9 20.5 -30.5 5.3 4.9
South Africa
% change y-o-y 3.5 4.7 5.8 1.6 8.3 5.5 9.3 6.7 2.8 1.7 5.2 2.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 113.4 110.5 115.7 116.4 124.7 130.2
% change y-o-y 6.8 -2.5 4.7 0.5 7.1 4.4 6.8 11.0 -0.8 2.8 2.8 1.2
Total 29 103.1 106.2 112.1 113.6 122.8 129.2

% change y-o-y 4.3 3.0 5.6 1.4 8.0 5.3 8.7 7.7 1.9 2.0 4.6 2.1
Tunisia
% change y-o-y 8.1 14.3 5.1 5.2 2.9 4.7 - 16.8 -10.6 18.7 6.4 2.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 85.5 99.0 106.1 113.9 119.5 127.7
% change y-o-y 3.3 15.7 7.2 7.3 5.0 6.8 - 12.6 -9.2 -11.4 8.3 4.5
Total 29 120.3 138.4 147.0 156.3 162.6 172.1

% change y-o-y 5.5 15.1 6.2 6.3 4.0 5.9 - 13.3 -9.4 -3.1 7.4 3.6
Europe, ME, Africa

% change y-o-y -1.8 -7.4 1.7 2.7 2.3 1.2 4.2 2.9 1.6 4.3 0.0 1.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 118.6 118.8 121.2 125.1 127.0 128.9
% change y-o-y 3.4 0.2 2.0 3.2 1.6 1.4 5.3 4.8 -0.2 5.5 1.7 1.8
Total 29 111.6 106.5 108.5 111.6 113.9 115.4

% change y-o-y 0.1 -4.5 1.8 2.9 2.0 1.3 4.6 3.6 0.9 4.7 0.7 1.3
Page viii Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

Americas: Motor vehicles & parts Detailed output

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
United States
% change y-o-y 6.1 2.3 0.7 2.0 3.9 0.5 7.3 -3.4 5.4 3.7 1.9 1.2
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 111.2 110.0 110.8 113.3 118.1 119.1
% change y-o-y 5.7 -1.1 0.7 2.2 4.2 0.9 4.4 -2.0 4.5 5.0 1.4 1.5
Total 29 107.2 107.7 108.5 110.8 115.3 116.0

% change y-o-y 5.9 0.5 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.7 5.8 -2.7 4.9 4.4 1.6 1.4
Canada
% change y-o-y -6.0 -1.5 -4.9 -9.7 4.8 5.5 4.5 -5.0 3.3 -2.3 -1.3 1.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 105.1 101.7 98.0 88.7 93.3 98.7
% change y-o-y 2.5 -3.3 -3.6 -9.5 5.2 5.8 2.2 -4.0 -0.7 3.7 -1.3 1.6
Total 29 98.2 95.7 91.8 82.9 87.1 92.0

% change y-o-y -1.3 -2.5 -4.2 -9.6 5.0 5.7 3.2 -4.4 1.2 0.8 -1.3 1.5
Argentina
% change y-o-y 14.7 -8.0 6.8 29.2 25.9 4.6 -23.1 13.5 0.3 -14.4 10.8 3.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 67.7 62.3 66.8 88.1 113.1 120.7
% change y-o-y 14.7 -7.9 7.2 31.9 28.4 6.7 -8.6 36.7 5.4 -14.4 12.3 5.1
Total 29 67.7 62.3 66.7 87.7 112.3 119.4

% change y-o-y 14.7 -8.0 7.2 31.4 28.0 6.4 -16.1 29.5 4.4 -14.4 12.0 4.7
Brazil
% change y-o-y 12.7 1.8 3.0 4.7 7.0 5.4 3.2 14.4 2.1 -5.9 4.4 2.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 110.9 116.3 119.4 124.2 132.2 138.5
% change y-o-y 12.2 4.8 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 2.8 9.0 -1.0 -6.3 4.5 2.0
Total 29 116.0 119.4 122.8 128.3 137.1 144.1

% change y-o-y 12.5 2.9 2.9 4.5 6.8 5.2 3.0 12.0 0.9 -6.1 4.4 2.4
Chile
% change y-o-y NA ###### 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -6.0 -7.5 -100.0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 90.2 84.6 89.8 92.9 95.8 98.6
% change y-o-y -16.8 -6.2 6.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 -0.9 0.8 4.3 -9.3 1.8 3.4
Total 29 90.2 84.6 89.8 92.9 95.8 98.6

% change y-o-y -16.8 -6.2 6.1 3.4 3.2 2.9 -2.1 -0.7 1.0 -9.3 1.8 3.4
Colombia
% change y-o-y 7.6 7.5 3.9 -4.5 3.4 -1.0 2.7 5.3 -1.0 -0.6 1.8 1.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 88.3 106.3 108.8 102.4 104.4 101.9
% change y-o-y 11.1 20.3 2.4 -5.8 1.9 -2.4 -1.1 13.7 -1.9 -5.0 2.9 0.4
Total 29 89.9 100.3 103.7 98.6 101.4 99.9

% change y-o-y 8.7 11.6 3.3 -4.9 2.9 -1.5 1.5 8.1 -1.4 -2.2 2.1 1.4
Ecuador
% change y-o-y 17.7 -3.4 -10.0 3.8 -2.4 -0.9 27.4 8.9 14.5 3.4 -2.7 0.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 151.7 148.4 134.5 140.6 138.1 137.8
% change y-o-y 21.3 -2.2 -9.4 4.5 -1.8 -0.2 47.8 19.9 19.8 8.6 -1.9 1.0
Total 29 140.5 136.5 123.3 128.4 125.7 125.0

% change y-o-y 19.3 -2.8 -9.7 4.2 -2.1 -0.6 30.9 11.9 16.4 5.5 -2.3 0.6
Mexico
% change y-o-y 1.4 2.2 -3.8 0.2 0.2 4.8 5.4 6.9 6.8 5.3 0.7 2.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 116.6 119.4 117.9 119.1 120.4 123.9
% change y-o-y 5.8 2.4 -1.2 1.0 1.1 2.8 2.2 3.2 6.2 6.5 1.2 2.8
Total 29 114.3 116.9 113.9 114.6 115.4 119.8

% change y-o-y 3.5 2.3 -2.6 0.6 0.6 3.8 3.6 5.1 6.5 5.9 0.9 2.7
Uruguay
% change y-o-y -26.5 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 - 10.7 -28.3 -39.0 2.4 4.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 83.9 70.7 73.8 77.3 80.9 84.7
% change y-o-y 8.6 -15.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 -14.9 33.2 7.6 -8.2 0.2 6.8
Total 29 83.8 70.6 73.7 77.2 80.7 84.5

% change y-o-y 8.6 -15.7 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.7 -15.6 31.8 6.9 -8.3 0.2 6.8
Page ix Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com

Americas: Motor vehicles & parts Detailed output

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Venezuela
% change y-o-y 0.8 -51.2 14.8 51.3 42.9 11.7 -11.3 21.3 2.1 -14.5 6.2 8.8
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 61.2 30.1 34.8 52.9 75.9 85.2
% change y-o-y 0.8 -50.8 15.4 52.0 43.6 12.2 -12.9 19.3 2.4 -14.9 6.8 9.3
Total 29 65.0 31.9 36.7 55.6 79.7 89.2

% change y-o-y 0.8 -51.0 15.1 51.6 43.2 11.9 -12.1 20.4 2.2 -14.7 6.5 9.1
Americas
% change y-o-y 5.0 1.9 -0.2 1.5 3.7 1.9 5.9 -0.4 5.0 2.5 1.7 1.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 110.4 109.6 110.0 112.1 116.9 118.9
% change y-o-y 5.8 -0.7 0.4 1.8 4.3 1.7 3.6 -0.1 3.9 3.8 1.5 1.9
Total 29 107.6 108.2 108.3 110.0 114.4 116.5

% change y-o-y 5.4 0.5 0.1 1.6 4.0 1.8 4.7 -0.3 4.4 3.2 1.6 1.7
Asia Pacific: Motor vehicles & parts Detailed output

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Australia
% change y-o-y -6.2 -12.7 -5.8 -7.9 -5.8 -1.0 3.3 -3.8 -2.9 -7.1 -6.7 -1.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 76.6 69.8 69.8 69.8 70.4 71.2
% change y-o-y -6.2 -8.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.1 3.9 2.8 0.2 -7.1 -1.4 1.3
Total 29 76.6 68.9 67.8 66.3 65.8 66.2

% change y-o-y -6.2 -10.0 -1.6 -2.1 -0.8 0.6 3.7 0.3 -0.7 -7.1 -2.9 0.8
Japan
% change y-o-y 0.4 2.2 -2.8 1.4 0.7 -1.3 2.3 6.0 -2.0 1.9 0.0 -0.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 112.2 111.7 110.9 114.2 117.0 117.4
% change y-o-y 2.2 -0.4 -0.7 3.0 2.4 0.4 5.9 6.7 0.4 3.0 0.9 1.2
Total 29 107.7 108.9 106.7 108.9 110.4 109.7

% change y-o-y 1.1 1.1 -2.0 2.0 1.4 -0.6 3.5 6.3 -1.1 2.3 0.4 0.2
New Zealand
% change y-o-y 7.8 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.9 -5.3 -3.7 5.0 1.6 1.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 118.8 123.0 126.6 130.1 134.0 138.4
% change y-o-y 7.8 3.5 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.5 1.1 -0.6 5.0 3.1 3.2
Total 29 118.8 122.5 125.5 128.4 131.7 135.5

% change y-o-y 7.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 -1.3 -1.5 5.0 2.7 2.8
China
% change y-o-y 7.2 -2.6 3.3 4.8 5.0 4.4 17.3 15.4 18.5 12.8 2.9 3.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 132.5 137.2 142.5 148.8 156.3 163.1
% change y-o-y 4.2 3.6 3.8 4.5 5.0 4.4 17.3 15.4 19.0 9.4 4.2 3.5
Total 29 137.1 139.2 144.3 150.9 158.5 165.4

% change y-o-y 5.2 1.6 3.7 4.6 5.0 4.4 17.3 15.4 18.9 10.5 3.8 3.5
Hong Kong
% change y-o-y 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -6.2 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 100.9 102.1 103.2 103.3 102.8 102.3
% change y-o-y 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -6.2 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4
Total 29 100.9 102.1 103.1 103.2 102.7 102.3

% change y-o-y 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -6.2 -0.2 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.4
India
% change y-o-y 17.8 -5.7 3.4 3.6 5.4 5.9 14.3 7.5 11.7 9.6 2.4 7.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 136.5 128.8 133.3 138.3 146.2 155.1
% change y-o-y 17.8 -5.7 3.5 3.8 5.7 6.1 11.3 12.9 14.0 9.8 2.6 7.6
Total 29 137.1 129.3 133.8 138.8 146.5 155.3

% change y-o-y 17.8 -5.7 3.5 3.7 5.6 6.0 12.5 10.7 13.1 9.7 2.5 7.5
Contact:
Page x Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com


industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Indonesia
% change y-o-y 5.0 -1.3 4.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 53.1 7.0 7.8 5.2 3.0 4.3
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 112.0 115.9 121.5 125.5 130.3 136.1
% change y-o-y 5.0 3.4 4.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 29.1 3.9 7.8 5.2 4.0 4.3
Total 29 112.0 111.9 117.3 121.2 125.9 131.4

% change y-o-y 5.0 -0.1 4.8 3.3 3.8 4.4 43.6 6.2 7.8 5.2 3.2 4.3
South Korea
% change y-o-y -1.6 -1.1 3.0 -3.4 3.1 1.3 18.8 8.1 4.1 0.6 0.5 0.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 103.6 104.7 107.7 104.4 107.9 109.6
% change y-o-y 2.1 1.0 2.9 -3.1 3.4 1.5 19.3 9.3 10.3 3.4 1.1 0.8
Total 29 98.5 98.5 101.4 98.1 101.3 102.7

% change y-o-y 0.2 -0.1 2.9 -3.2 3.3 1.4 19.0 8.6 6.7 1.9 0.8 0.7
Malaysia
% change y-o-y 10.2 10.6 3.4 3.6 3.0 3.7 8.0 -5.6 3.6 -4.4 4.8 2.1
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 110.5 118.1 124.8 131.9 138.6 146.7
% change y-o-y 6.2 6.8 5.7 5.7 5.1 5.8 2.0 16.0 6.0 3.6 5.8 4.1
Total 29 106.4 114.2 120.3 126.9 133.0 140.5

% change y-o-y 6.6 7.3 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.6 4.0 9.7 5.6 2.5 5.7 3.9
Pakistan
% change y-o-y -0.2 -12.7 8.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 -6.6 9.0 -3.1 -3.3 0.9 4.4
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 111.7 95.6 103.7 108.5 111.3 114.5
% change y-o-y 4.3 -14.4 8.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 1.6 13.5 2.7 2.9 0.5 4.4
Total 29 107.5 92.4 100.2 104.8 107.6 110.7

% change y-o-y 3.3 -14.1 8.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 -1.9 12.0 1.0 1.5 0.6 4.4
Philippines
% change y-o-y 0.7 15.7 14.7 14.6 4.2 2.1 24.2 17.4 9.1 12.2 10.1 5.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 122.0 124.4 139.8 157.1 160.5 160.6
% change y-o-y -4.4 1.9 12.4 12.4 2.2 0.1 -3.5 6.6 1.8 6.1 5.6 3.7
Total 29 128.7 137.3 155.5 176.1 181.3 182.9

% change y-o-y -2.7 6.7 13.3 13.2 3.0 0.9 -1.2 8.5 3.6 8.0 7.3 4.6
Singapore
% change y-o-y -2.5 -4.6 10.1 30.3 15.4 2.6 4.7 -0.5 15.7 7.7 10.1 1.9
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 121.5 116.0 127.8 166.5 192.1 197.2
% change y-o-y -2.5 -4.5 10.1 30.3 15.4 2.6 4.7 -0.5 15.7 7.7 10.2 1.9
Total 29 121.5 116.0 127.7 166.4 192.0 197.1

% change y-o-y -2.5 -4.6 10.1 30.3 15.4 2.6 4.7 -0.5 15.7 7.7 10.1 1.9
Taiwan
% change y-o-y -11.5 0.4 9.0 0.8 0.9 -0.9 4.6 -7.9 13.1 -2.2 2.0 0.5
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 103.0 100.9 105.8 108.6 111.5 112.6
% change y-o-y -3.7 -2.0 4.8 2.6 2.7 1.0 11.0 5.1 5.0 2.8 1.8 2.4
Total 29 93.9 92.7 98.5 100.5 102.6 102.9

% change y-o-y -6.4 -1.2 6.2 2.0 2.1 0.3 7.8 -0.1 7.8 1.0 1.9 1.8
Thailand
% change y-o-y 8.4 -1.3 1.1 4.4 3.7 3.4 15.4 13.7 6.0 -0.2 2.2 3.7
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 115.3 112.0 112.4 117.4 121.8 125.9
% change y-o-y 7.7 -2.9 0.4 4.4 3.7 3.4 17.1 8.1 6.8 0.9 1.8 3.7
Total 29 113.7 111.7 112.7 117.7 122.1 126.2

% change y-o-y 8.2 -1.8 0.9 4.4 3.7 3.4 16.0 11.9 6.2 0.1 2.1 3.7
Vietnam
% change y-o-y 17.9 -8.7 7.2 5.7 5.5 3.6 49.9 13.5 4.7 16.4 2.5 5.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 57.2 47.8 50.2 52.0 53.8 54.6
% change y-o-y 17.9 -16.3 5.0 3.6 3.4 1.5 - -9.1 -31.8 -17.4 -0.9 2.9
Total 29 134.7 122.9 131.7 139.3 147.0 152.3

% change y-o-y 17.9 -8.7 7.2 5.7 5.5 3.6 31.5 11.5 3.9 16.3 2.5 5.0
Page xi Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com


industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
Asia Pacific
% change y-o-y 3.8 -0.5 0.6 2.6 3.0 1.8 5.9 7.7 3.6 4.7 1.5 2.0
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 123.0 125.0 128.4 132.9 138.7 143.3
% change y-o-y 4.2 1.6 2.7 3.6 4.3 3.4 10.0 9.8 9.9 6.6 3.1 3.1
Total 29 120.1 120.9 123.1 126.9 131.7 135.2

% change y-o-y 4.0 0.6 1.8 3.1 3.7 2.7 7.6 8.6 6.7 5.7 2.4 2.7
World: Motor vehicles & parts Detailed output

industry code: 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 99-03 04-08 09-13 14-18 19-23 24-28
World
% change y-o-y 2.1 -2.3 0.8 2.4 2.9 1.6 5.2 3.8 3.2 4.0 1.1 1.6
Bodies & parts 29.2,29.3 118.6 119.5 121.9 125.6 130.3 133.6
% change y-o-y 4.5 0.7 2.0 3.1 3.7 2.6 6.0 4.9 5.6 5.6 2.4 2.6
Total 29 114.4 113.5 115.1 118.2 122.1 124.7

% change y-o-y 3.2 -0.8 1.4 2.7 3.3 2.1 5.6 4.3 4.3 4.8 1.7 2.1
Contact:
Page xii Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com Contact: Stephen Foreman | sforeman@oxfordeconomics.com


Global Industry Forecast - Motor Vehicles Q3 2019

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Global Industry Forecast - Motor Vehicles Q3 2019

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Motor vehicles &

Economist: Stephen Foreman, Lead Economist

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US 17% China 23% Japan 19% Western 14% Emergers 24%

Arrows indicate year-end growth strengthening or weakening relative to 2019.

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Motor vehicles - Macro risks #NA

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Not used #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Not used #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Not used #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Not used #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

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Ɨ Light commercial vehicles are those of less than 6 tonnes

Longer term trends

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Motor vehicles and parts

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Motor vehicles and parts shares

% of Manufacturing % of GDP % of World Output

Bulgaria 0.05 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00

Brazil 8.14 9.33 0.99 1.12 1.43 1.63

Turkey 7.31 6.83 1.39 1.24 0.29 0.26

Hong Kong 1.60 1.57 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00

Argentina 1.97 3.57 0.31 0.51 0.16 0.25

Angola 0.07 0.11 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00

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Total 29 120.5 130.4 128.8 126.9 126.0 125.8

Total 29 89.7 105.0 101.5 96.0 98.5 96.2

Total 29 120.3 102.5 105.3 108.0 110.6

Total 29 116.0 121.8 124.3 127.8 115.5 107.8

Total 29 110.4 111.1 100.4 107.1 113.6 119.1

Total 29 106.9 96.9 98.0 99.6 102.9 102.0

Total 29 89.3 72.9 74.2 75.5 77.0 78.6

Total 29 144.6 146.6 151.8 156.9 162.1 167.8

Total 29 105.5 98.7 103.7 117.5 117.8 116.6

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Total 29 94.4 95.4 98.9 101.7 104.1 106.3

Total 29 151.4 152.2 149.0 146.0 141.6 137.5

Total 29 125.3 130.4 122.9 116.4 117.4 118.0