Argus Ammonia

Formerly Argus FMB Ammonia

Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

Executive summary key prICES

Tampa rise keeps October outlook firm Ammonia prices $/t

It was a mixed picture in the ammonia market this week as 27 Sep 20 Sep ±

the monthly Tampa contract for October firmed by $25/t, fob

while in India, the latest tender revealed a $15/t month-on- Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 34

month fall for November shipments. Middle East 350-365 335-365 t

SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 34
Production rates are rising at key supply hubs although
cfr
most suppliers are tight and little spot material is on offer. In
India 365-408 365-408 34
Yuzhny, the supply outlook is expected to start to improve in
East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 34
the weeks ahead, but shippers are faced with higher freight
Tampa 355 330 t
costs and the potential for delays when transiting through
For a full list of prices, see page 2
the Turkish straits.
Ammonia price comparison $/t
Market drivers

Tampa prices rises $25/t east Asia cfr Caribbean fob netback
southeast Asia fob Middle East fob
Yara and Mosaic have settled the Tampa contract price for 400
October at $355/t cfr, a $25/t increase from the September
2018 contract. 350

FACT cargoes awarded at lower prices -

300
hh
FACT awarded its latest tender for two November shipments
to Trammo at $393/t cfr and $388/t cfr, respectively.
250

Turkish delays affecting ammonia shipments 200

There are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels 15 Mar 3 May 21 Jun 9 Aug 27 Sep
taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of
the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels.
Ammonia freight
Petronas to load Indonesian cargo for Japan Loading Destination Tonnage Rate ($/t)
Petronas has sold a cargo to a trader for delivery to Japan, Low High ±
priced on a formula-basis, and will load on the Navigator Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58 t
Glory in Bontang in the second-half of October. Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46 t
Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68 34
OPZ awards gas supply tender Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32 34

Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47 34

tender to ETFX UK Group. Bontang East Asia 23 32 48 34

For a full list of freight rates, see page 3

30-60 day Outlook
Discussions for mid to late October cargoes are understood
to be taking place at current market levels. Further sharp
price increases in early November appear unlikely.
View the methodology used to assess ammonia prices
at www.argusmedia.com/methodology. Your feedback
is always welcome at fertilizer@argusmedia.com

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Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

Yuzhny vessel line-up September Ammonia prices $/t

Vessel Volume Shipper Destination Loading date 27 Sep 20 Sep ±
Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa Belgium 4-Sep
fob
Clipper Venus 28,750 OCP Morocco 10-Sep
Clipper Mars 40,000 Ameropa India 12-Sep Ventspils 339-340 339-340 nc
Gas Snapper 23,300 Ameropa Morocco 16-Sep Yuzhny 335-350 335-350 nc
Clipper Odin 25,500 Ameropa Morocco 20-Sep
Gas Grouper 23,300 Ameropa Turkey + Tunisia 24-Sep North Africa 340-352 340-352 nc
Total 164,150 Middle East 350-365 335-365 8

October US Gulf domestic (barge) $/st 300-311 300-311 nc

Clipper Venus 40,000 Ameropa Morocco 4-Oct Caribbean (Tampa netback) 315 290 25
Gas Manta 23,300 Ameropa TBN 5-Oct
Gas Cobia 23,300 Ameropa TBN early-Oct Caribbean/US Gulf spot 305-316 300-310 6
Wilhelm Schulte 11,000 OCI NW Europe early-Oct SE Asia and Australia spot 340-360 340-360 nc
MaryCam Swan 15,000 Trammo TBN 15-17 Oct
SE Asia and Australia contract 330-350 330-350 nc

Yuzhny line up data is available to Argus subscribers here cfr

NW Europe (duty unpaid) 385-395 385-395 nc

Europe NW Europe (duty paid/free)† 406-417 406-417 nc

North Africa 365-380 365-380 nc

Yuzhny
India 365-408 365-408 nc
Yuzhny prices remain unchanged and a new sale into Turkey
is estimated to netback to around $340/t fob, within our East Asia (excl Taiwan) 370-403 370-403 nc

prevailing range of $335-350/t fob. Ahead of the closure of Taiwan 370-380 360-380 5
the ammonia pipeline on 29 September, pumping rates were
Tampa 355 330 25
down to 220t/hr today with 180t/hr coming from Togliatti-
US Gulf 360 335 25
Azot and 40t/hr from Rossosh.
The ammonia plant at Rossosh is expected to restart in Natural gas

the next few days but the producer is currently deliver-
ing volumes down to Yuzhny that it had in storage at the
plant. Trammo and Rossosh are currently in negotiations for
a mid-October cargo to load on the MaryCam Swan but no
final deal was confirmed today. Rossosh is expected to load
around 40,000t in October on the Navigator Jorf for OCP and
the MaryCam Swan for Trammo.
There are long delays in the Bosphorus strait with vessels
taking around 5 days to transit through to Odessa instead of
the usual 2-3 day transit time for mid-size vessels. Since 1
September all ammonia vessels passing through the Turkish
straits are required to travel in daylight hours with tug boat
assistance, similar to restrictions previously in place on large
40,000t vessels. The permanent change to transit regula-
tions will raise freight costs on all voyages in/out of Yuzhny,
with freight increases estimated to have increased around
$3-5/t on average.
Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has awarded its latest gas-tolling
tender to ETFX UK Group. Contract terms on gas supply will
be discussed shortly, but a tentative date for the restart of
the plant is expected to be end-October/early-November.
Under the new tender which closed on 21 September, OPZ
has outlined natural gas processing rates at $32/t for ammo-
Henry hub $/mn Btu 3.06 2.94 0.12
TTF month ahead $/mn Btu 9.88 9.41 0.47
†this price range includes a duty level set at 5.5pc
nia and $44/t for urea. The tender requested supply of up to
60mn m³/month of gas commencing from the beginning of
October.
Baltic
Uralchem reports that the latest ammonia cargo loading this
week from Ventspils is priced in the mid-$340s /t fob, but
this could not be confirmed with Yara by press-time. No Yara
vessels were loading from Sillamae this week, but Acron am-
monia production is running well.
There are reports that some spot tonnes are on offer out
of the Baltic this week, with some sources suggesting that
suppliers are looking to achieve $360/t fob or over, but no
new business was concluded at this level.
Turkey
Ameropa has sold 8,400t to Eti Bakir for delivery to Samsun
on the Gas Grouper this week. The cargo is understood to

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Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

have been priced at the same level as Ameropa’s last sale Ammonia freight
Loading Destination Tonnage Rate ($/t)
to Petkim which is being delivered on the same vessel and
Low High
is estimated to net back to a price of around $340/t fob
Yuzhny. Yuzhny NW Europe 23 46 58

Demand from Turkey remains fairly slow otherwise this Yuzhny Morocco 23 37 46
Ras al Khair South Korea 23 57 68
week, with only Toros, Petkim and Eti Bakir actively import-
Ras al Khair WC India 23 25 32
ing.
Ras al Khair EC India 23 35 43
On the export side, Trammo loaded a full cargo on the Gas
Point Lisas East Asia 23 87 98
Utopia from Gemlik on 23 September. The ship is destined Point Lisas US Gulf 23 37 47
for Jordan but is delayed near Dardenelles currently. Point Lisas NW Europe 23 44 56
Bontang East Asia 23 32 48
Middle East and Africa
Gas Utopia in early-October. The vessel loaded from Gemlik,
Saudi Arabia Turkey earlier this week but is delayed near Dardanelles
Ma’aden is loading the Touraine at Ras al-Khair this week for currently.
delivery to South Korea for Lotte Fine Chemical.
Tunisia
Qatar GCT will receive around 9-10,000t from Ameropa in early-
Muntajat this week reports that its latest netback on ship- October on the Gas Grouper. The Tunisian producer is in the
ments to India are $355/t fob Mesaieed. process of revamping its AN plant currently and is importing
Production at Qafco 4 went down for four days this week ammonia for DAP production purposes only. Once the AN
but the plant is running normally again according to latest revamp is complete the producer will require 23,000t every
reports. 5-6 weeks.

Jordan Morocco
JPMC is scheduled to receive a cargo from Trammo on the OCP will discharge around 75,000t at Jorf Lasfar in the first

the Ammonia world this week

US: October Tampa contract
settles $25/t higher on the
month at $355/t cfr
Turkey: Vessel delays at Turkish South Korea: Namhae has
straits due to introduction of new shortlisted 4-5 suppliers for
shipping fees its 560,000t 2019 contract.
Awards could be made next
week.

India: FACT awards latest

tender for November
Trinidad: Point Lisas export shipments at $393/t cfr
line up for September reaches and $388/t cfr
302,000t
Indonesia: Petronas sells
cargo for Bontang loading in
2H October to Japan

Disclaimer: Argus depicts geo-political borders as defined by the United Nations Geospatial Information Section.
For more information visit http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/world.pdf

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 3 of 10

Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

Indian ammonia imports September/October 2018

Supplier Buyer Vessel Volume (t) Loading port Arrival Discharging port Price

April 221,889
May 191,988
June 210,221
July 266,432
August 177,132
September
Trammo FACT Trammo Dietlin 8,125 Ain Sokhna 2-Sep Cochin 380
Muntajat CIL ALmarona 2,150 Mesaieed 2-Sep Kakinada 382
Muntajat PPL Navigator Nova 10,000 Mesaieed 3-Sep Paradip 352
CIFC PPL Gas Quantum 16,053 Bontang 4-Sep Paradip Formula
CIFC CIL Gas Quantum 7,000 Bontang 7-Sep Vizag 354
Muntajat IRC Agro Almarona 5,300 Mesaieed 6-Sep Haldia Formula
IPCC DFCL Senna Princess 11,000 Assaluyeh 7-Sep JNPT Formula
Trammo IFFCO Gas Venus 25,281 Ain Sokhna 7-Sep Paradip 370
Ma'aden CIL Viking River 2,000 Ras al Khair 8-Sep Vizag Formula
Ma'aden CIL Viking River 20,998 Ras al Khair 9-Sep Kakinada Formula
CIFC DFCL Standorf 3,800 BIK 9-Sep JNPT Formula
IPCC IFFCO Senna Princess 4,100 Assaluyeh 10-Sep Kandla 355
CIFC FACT Gas Line 7,501 Assaluyeh 11-Sep Cochin 335
Muntajat ZIL Al Majedah 2,489 Mesaieed 11-Sep Goa 380
Muntajat MCFL Al Majedah 5,500 Mesaieed 12-Sep Mangalore 380
Muntajat Greenstar Al Majedah 7,000 Mesaieed 14-Sep Tuticorin Formula
IPCC DFCL Senna Princess 11,000 Assaluyeh 17-Sep JNPT Formula
CIFC PPL Standorf 10,000 BIK 17-Sep Paradip low 340s
CIFC FACT Standorf 7,200 BIK 22-Sep Cochin 376
Muntajat Hindalco Navigator Nova 4,000 Mesaieed 19-Sep Dahej Formula
Muntajat MCFL Navigator Nova 4,000 Mesaieed 21-Sep Mangalore 380
CIFC IFFCO Leo Sunrise 15,000 Bontang 21-Sep Kandla 365
CIFC CIL Gas Cat 7,507 BIK 21-Sep Vizag 360
CIFC CIL Gas Cat 5,507 BIK 22-Sep Kakinada 360
Sabic DFCL Al Barrah 12,000 Al Jubail 24-Sep JNPT 385
Sabic GSFC Al Barrah 11,000 Al Jubail 26-Sep Sikka Formula
Muntajat IRC Agro Navigator Nova 7,500 Mesaieed 25-Sep Haldia Formula
Muntajat ZIL Almarona 4,000 Mesaieed 26-Sep Goa Formula
Muntajat Greenstar Almarona 7,000 Mesaieed 28-Sep Tuticorin Formula
October
Ameropa IFFCO Clipper Mars 39,972 Yuzhny 3-Oct Paradip 364
Mitsui KIT/IFFCO Seashine 15,000 Ras al Khair mid Oct Kandla

Indian import data is available to Argus subscribers here

week of October across three shipments – the Clipper Odin,
the Navigator Jorf and the Kaprijke. Monthly imports for
September reached 102,000t.
Algeria
Sorfert is offering ammonia for October loading at $400/t
fob. The previous spot deal from the producer was agreed at
$352/t fob to Trammo for 30,000t across two 2H September
shipments. The Trammo Paris is expected to begin loading at
Bethioua imminently but there could be a delay to the load-
ing of the second cargo because of the vessels being held
currently at the Turkish Straits.
Indian subcontinent
India
FACT awarded its latest tender to Trammo today for two
November 7,500t cargoes. The first cargo was awarded at
$393/t cfr for delivery on 4-8 November, and the second
cargo was priced at $388/t cfr for 17-21 November shipment.
CIFC offered Iranian ammonia for the 17-21 November
cargo but the price was over $400/t cfr.
Smartchem (Deepak) closed an inquiry for 21,000t of am-
monia for delivery by 15 January at JNPT port. The buyer
received offers from four traders, is still negotiating with
two sellers.

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Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

The following prices were noted for contract shipments:
„„ The Navigator Nova, carrying 4,000t from Mesaieed to
MCFL was priced around $380.03/t cfr
„„ Leo Sunrise delivered 15,000t to IFFCO at $365/t cfr. The
cargo loaded in Bontang and was delivered by CIFC
„„ CIFC's Gas Cat, carrying 13,000t for Coromandel, was
priced just below $360/t cfr
„„ The al Barrah delivered 12,000t to Smartchem (Deepak)
at $385/t cfr on 24 September. The cargo loaded at Al
Jubail
„„ IFFCO will receive a 40,000t cargo from Ameropa ex-
Yuzhny, priced at $364/t cfr
Asia Pacific
Malaysia
Petronas has sold a cargo to Mitsui for delivery to Japan.
The cargo has been priced on a formula-basis, and will load
on the Navigator Glory in Bontang in the second-half of
October.
Petronas has planned two shipments to Thailand under
long-term contract, and a cargo to China in addition to the
spot sale.
Indonesia
Trammo is currently loading a cargo from Bontang which will
deliver to India.
KPI has planned three shipments during October, one to
India, one to China and a small parcel to be delivered to
Vietnam.
The Leo Sunrise will arrive in Bontang on 3 October to
load a cargo and will likely deliver it to India.
The PAU plant is running well but still in commissioning
phase. Lotte Fine Chemical (LFC) loaded 37,000t on the Po-
lar from the plant this week and Mitsubishi expects to load
the next vessel from the plant during 1H October although
no firm nomination has been made.
rumoured to be at or above $425/t cfr but no details were
confirmed by press time.
South Korea
Prices were heard in the $360-390/t cfr range this week,
with one buyer reporting contract shipments in the $375-
390/t cfr range.
Namhae Chemical Corporation (NCC) has shortlisted four
to five suppliers for the final round of negotiations for the
2019 annual supply contract. An award is expected next
week for 560,000t long-term contract.
NCC will have a 30-day maintenance shutdown at most of
its production lines starting in early-October.
The final shipment before the producer's turnaround
commences will be a 13,000t cargo on the Clipper Neptun
from Koch. NCC expects to start importing ammonia again in
early-November with a 25,000t cargo from Yara scheduled.
Taiwan
Contract prices are reported in the $370-380/t cfr range this
week.
CPDC will receive shipments via the Clipper Neptun and
the Gas Line in October.
Formosa will only begin negotiations for the annual supply
contract in early 2019 as the current 150,000t/yr contract
runs until end-April.
China
Gemoil imported 38,000t of ammonia into Zhanjiang in Sep-
tember. The buyer has lined up a 15,000t for arrival during
October and another 23,000t cargo for arrival during the
second-half of November.
India, Far East and Middle East price $/t
India cfr Far east cfr Middle East fob
400
375
350

Japan -
325 hh
There are unconfirmed reports of production issues at the
300
Mitsui Chemicals plant in western Japan which resulted in
some prompt ammonia import demand from Japanese buy- 275
ers this week. Mitsui is reported to have sold a small spot
250
cargo of around 3,000t to one Japanese buyer at a price 7 Jun 5 Jul 2 Aug 30 Aug 27 Sep

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 5 of 10

Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

Trinidad vessel line up September/October

Load month Vessel Discharge Arrived/ETA Trader Volumes
September 376
Hellas Apollo Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico 12-Sep Koch 17
Marte Cayo Moa Grande, Cuba 7-Sep Yara 3
Cambridge Mejillones, Chile 16-Sep Trammo 25
Yara Aesa Tampa, Florida 13-Sep Yara 25
Yara Freya Santos, Brazil 30-Sep Yara 25
Hellas Eagle Beaumont, Texas 17-Sep Koch 40
Clipper Sky Tampa, US 18-Sep Koch 40
Navigator Jorf Jorf Lasfar, Morocco OCP 25
Sombeke Jorf Lasfar, Morocco 26-Sep Nutrien 26
Libramont TBD Nutrien 25
Kaprijke Jorf Lasfar, Morocco 3-Oct Nutrien 23
Yara Aesa Santos, Brazil Yara 25
Marte Cayo Moa Grande, Cuba Yara 3
October 144
Marola Yara 25
Yara Freya Yara 25
Marte Yara 3
Clipper Orion Koch 40
Trammo Cornell Trammo 26
Cambridge Trammo 25

Trinidad line up data is available to Argus subscribers here

China Domestic
In Shandong, prices are above Yn3,470/t ex-works. In Nanjing
port, a trader is offering at Yn3,700/t ex-warehouse.
A congested highway will impact the domestic ammonia
shipments during the Golden Week holidays in China next
week.
Australia
Australia's Queensland state is fast-tracking an energy and
ammonia project that plans to use 1.5mn t/yr of thermal
coal from the Callide mine that is currently exported to
Asian customers.
The Gladstone energy and ammonia project will use 1.5mn
t/yr of thermal coal from the 10mn t/yr Callide coal mine.
It will produce up to 300,000 t/yr of ammonia and 6-8PJ
(160mn-214mn m³) of synthetic natural gas.
See News section for full story.
Americas
US domestic
The Tampa contract for October vessels settled rose by
$25/t from September to $355/t cfr, setting the highest
value since January. The settlement furthers a firm trend
that has prevailed in the global ammonia market through the
third quarter, and now into the fourth quarter: tight spot
availability coupled with consistent demand.
The settlement did not trickle into the barge market im-
mediately this week, leaving barge prices flat at $300-311/
st fob Nola. The market was untested this week, but market
participants indicated prices could correct in line with
Tampa in the near-term.
Trinidad
Loading prices from the Caribbean/US Gulf edged higher
to $305-316/t fob this week. Spot availability remains thin
in Trinidad as producers are only able to cover contractual
shipments. Nutrien loaded the Kaprijke this week for OCP,
the third cargo it has loaded this month for the Moroccan
buyer.
Argus estimates about 302,000t of ammonia was exported
from the island in September, with about 74,000t dedicated
to Morocco – up by about 9,000t from August, according
to vessel tracking data. Preliminary estimates for first-half
October shipment reached 144,000t.

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 6 of 10

Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

Spot Sales Selection – 27 September 2018

Origin Seller Buyer Destination ‘000t $pt bulk Shipment

TBN Trammo FACT India 8 393 cfr Early November

TBN Trammo FACT India 8 388 cfr Mid November
Indonesia Petrokimia Gresik CJ Indonesia Indonesia 6 403 cfr October
Algeria Sorfert Trammo TBC 30 352 fob eq 2H September
Egypt EBIC Parna Raya TBC 23 360 fob eq 2H September
Black Sea Ameropa Petkim Turkey 6 335 fob eq 2H September
Saudi Arabia Sabic Deepak West coast India 12 365 fob End-Sep
Trinidad BASF Yara Finland 25 September
Yuzhny Ameropa OCI Rotterdam 11 350 fob September
TBN CIFC FACT India 8 399 cfr Late-October
Indonesia Trammo FACT India 8 408 cfr 6-10 October
Malaysia Petronas Yara Australia 23 TBC August
Malaysia Petronas Philippines/Japan 12 360 fob August
TBN CIFC FACT India 8 376.5 cfr September
Algeria Sorfert Trader TBN 30 310 fob August/September

Spot sales data is available to Argus subscribers here

NEWS AND ANALYSIS

OPZ awards gas supply tender
Ukrainian fertilizer producer Odessa Port Plant (OPZ) has
awarded its latest gas third-party processing tender to ETFX
UK. Contract terms on gas supplies will be discussed shortly,
but a tentative date for the restart of the plant is expected
to be the end of October or early November.
Continue reading >>
Weak rupee to weigh on Indian DAP demand
Fertilizer importers to India have had to contend with a
weakening local currency in the third quarter — typically
the monsoon season in India — below-par rainfall and the
prospect of increasing domestic prices.
Continue reading >>
India starts work on Talcher project
India started work on its first coal gasification project in
Odisha state, which will produce urea and synthetic gas from
coal and petroleum coke. The 130bn rupees ($1.8bn) venture
is expected to boost demand for these fuels and reduce the
need for imported LNG.
Continue reading >>
OCP signs R&D deal with Hubei Forbon
Moroccan state-owned phosphates fertilizer producer OCP
has signed an initial agreement with Chinese fertilizer manu-
facturer Hubei Forbon on further collaboration.
Continue reading >>
Management changes at Eurochem
Swiss-based fertilizer producer EuroChem Group AG has
announced that its chief executive officer Dmitry Strashnov
has resigned from the Group with immediate effect citing
personal reasons.
Continue reading >>
Polish fertilizer output rises in August
Poland's fertilizer production rose in both year-on-year and
month-on-month terms in August, following a slump in July,
data from national statistics agency GUS show.
Continue reading >>
Argus Ammonia Methodology
Argus uses a precise and transparent
methodology to assess prices in all
METHODOLOGY AND SPECIFICATIONS GUIDE

the markets it covers. The latest

Australia fast-tracks coal-to-ammonia/gas plant version of the Argus Ammonia
Methodology can be found at: ARGUS AMMONIA
Australia's Queensland state is fast-tracking an energy and www.argusmedia.com/methodology.
ammonia project that plans to use 1.5mn t/yr of thermal Contents:
Methodology overview
Introduction
Publication frequency and assessment timing
2
5
5

coal from the Callide mine that is currently exported to

General methodology 5
Assessing price ranges 5
Distressed trades and disruptions to trade 6
Spot and formula pricing 6
Units 6
Lot and cargo sizes 6

Asian customers.
Products and specifications 6

For a hard copy, please email

Price guide — how prices are defined 6

Continue reading >> info@argusmedia.com, but please

note that methodogies are updated
frequently and for the latest version, LAST UPDATED: JANUARY 2017
The most up-to-date Argus Ammonia methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

you should visit the internet site. www.argusmedia.com

Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group Page 7 of 10

Argus Ammonia
FUNDAMENTALS
Ammonia production costs
Production cost based on Henry Hub, $/st (LHS)
Production cost based on TTF, $/t (RHS)
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
21 Sep 17 25 Jan 18 24 May 18 20 Sep 18
Henry Hub prices to firm
Near-term gas prices should receive a boost from low
inventories and slower supply growth in the Permian basin.
Henry Hub prices should average $3.30/mmBtu in the fourth
quarter and $3.15/mmBtu in the 2019 first quarter, according
to a forecast from Morgan Stanley.
Prices at the US benchmark next year should average
$2.90/mmBtu, despite another year of strong demand
growth. "Even with Permian bottlenecks, associated gas
growth remains strong while pipeline expansions will unlock
more low-cost supply from the Marcellus," Morgan Stanley
said.
Phosphates: Market realism prevails
A substantial flurry of DAP sales into India and to a lesser
extent Pakistan represents the realisation by both traders
and producers alike that it is best to make sales now lest
the rupee in India depreciate further or other sellers beat
them to the deal. Further MRP hikes are unlikely now. Trad-
ers have lost money having taking positions above $415/t
fob China and liquidated. Likewise, Chinese producers have
sold direct at $426-428/t cfr, which still presents a better
netback relative to the domestic market and also eases the
pressure on 500,000t of port inventories.
In total, India bought 360,000t of DAP this week while
Pakistan took an estimated 130,000-180,000t DAP from Mo-
rocco, Australia and China.
India looks on course to import 5.5mn t of DAP with 5mn
t now booked. Most of the Pakistan major importers are still
Follow us on Twitter @ArgusMediaFertz
for market insights from our editors.
Copyright © 2018 Argus Media group
Issue 18-39 | Thursday 27 September 2018
in the hunt for DAP in the low/mid-$430s/t cfr despite provi-
sional data showing inventories at end-August having risen to
a substantial 620,000t at the end of August and projected to
top 800,000t in September - higher than India.
Elsewhere, OCP is expected to sweep the board in Ethio-
pia as expected. It faced minor competition from Russia and
Saudi Arabia but competitive prices ensured it stands to take
375
at least 625,000t of NPS/NPK business. The only concern is
350
financing but an award is still expected by the end of this
325 week.
OCP was also a significant seller in Pakistan, netting
300
$407/t fob Jorf Lasfar which is a substantial decline on the
275 last Argus assessment. This probably reflects the paucity of
250 demand west of Suez and limited further opportunities in
the US.
225
West of Suez there was little business. Argentina took in
small lots of floating 10-50 ex-China in the higher-$430s/t cfr
but demand is subdued due to concerns over the country's
export duties on agricultural commodities. Brazil bought
another 10,000-15,000t of MAP in the mid/high-$450s/t cfr
for October shipment, more or less in line with last week's
prices.
In Indonesia and Iran, there were expressions of interest
for TSP totalling over 150,000t for 4Q shipment. Brazilian
TSP demand is, however on the wane seasonally.
Despite Australia, Europe and Ethiopia expected to absorb
significant tonnage in 4Q, the market still looks to be in
surplus hence some downside is expected.
Indian urea tender to fuel rising prices
Confirmation of the next Indian tender and a new clause
that will exclude Iranian urea offers set the hounds running
on 27 September hunting for urea.
Exclusion of Iranian urea was the signal traders had been
waiting for. It means that India will have to buy urea from a
range of sources and will boost prices, especially for Middle
East and Chinese product – the most competitive origins for
India.
Middle East urea traded at $336/t fob on the paper market
on Thursday, eclipsing a physical sale at $320/t fob on Mon-
day, an indication of what is to come.
Direct sales of Iranian urea are likely to cease. India will
have to find about 2mn t of urea from other sources in Q4.
With Chinese exports running at less than 150,000t/month
until now, this will be challenging.
With a strong run up in prices foreseen, traders are mov-
ing quickly to buy urea for October and will bid higher for
November.
Europe and Brazil are entering their peak buying seasons.
Some US import interest is emerging. Ethiopia is likely to
award its tender for 550,000t in October.
Page 8 of 10
Argus Ammonia Issue 18-39  |  Thursday 27 September 2018

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Fertilizer
illuminating the markets
 de
70
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s
32nd Annual

Argus Europe Fertilizer 2018

24 - 26 October
InterContinental Athenaeum, Athens, Greece

Europe’s biggest fertilizer trade event!

Host Sponsor
2018 Confirmed Speakers include:
Dr. Nikos Louizos
Director
INDAGRO
Platinum Sponsor
Jacob B. Hansen
Director General
Fertilizers Europe
The fertility power Zhai Jidong
Chief Operating Officer
Gold Sponsors Kingenta Ecological Engineering
Grace Chilande
Fertilizer Market Specialist| AfricaFertilizer.org
Regional Coordinator
BY

IFDC
Silver Sponsors
Erik van den Bergh
Managing Director
Van Iperen International

XA
NIA ΦΩΣΦO * View the full agenda inside
H

PIK
BIOM

ΩN

BIOMHXANIA ΦΩΣΦOPIKΩN
ΛIΠAΣMATΩN & XHMIKΩN
Micronutrients Forum
ΛIΠ

N
IKΩ

ΣM
ATΩN & XHM
A

Bronze Sponsors Europe's dedicated Micronutrients Forum will take place

on Wednesday 24 October. Hear the latest developments
in this sector during a one day event which covers zinc,
HOR
IC FERTI
L
boron, iron, magnesium, chelates, foliar and water
soluble products.
P

IZE
PHOS

PHOSPHORIC FERTILIZERS
S

INDUSTRY & CHEMICALS

IND

LS

ST
CA

R Y & C H E MI
U

Secure your place at www.argusmedia.com/fertilizer-europe

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