Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Sc, PhD)
Senior Professor of Management,
Development Economist,
Founder Dean - Faculty of Management, Peradeniya
Former Central Banker
A •POLITICAL ECONOMY OF GROWTH
Annual Change
Change (1950-
Sector 1950 2018
(Nett of
2018)
Taxes &
Subsidies)
(1950-2018)
Exports 297 11,890 170
Imports 246 22,233 323
Trade Surplus/Deficit 51 -10,343
Trade Surplus/Deficit 17% -87%
as % Exports
Per Capita Income No. of Annual 1 Health
Range Years Average
(US$) Spent (US$) 0.8 Index
0.6
100-1000 55 16 Educati
0.4 on
1000-2000 04 250
0.2 Index
2000-3000 03 333
Income
0
3000-4000 07 143 Index
Turkey
India
Malaysia
Sri Lanka
Saudi Arabia
Growth of Per capita Income (1948-2018)
HDI
Annual Average growth:
$4000/70 Years = $57
Savings & Investments (%)
50
45
Chan Annu 40
ge al 35
Avera 30
Item 1959 2018 (1959 ge 25
- Chan 20
2018) ge 15
(%) 10
5
National Savings 13.4 25.4 12.0 0.20 0
Change
Item 1950 2018 (1950-2018)
0.50 Minerals
Petroleum Products
0.10
Ceramic Products
0.00
Plastic Products
2000
2004
1994
2002
2003
2005
2007
2001
2006
1992
1997
1991
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999
Effective Sources of
Growth
Growth
Economic
Management Integration
Growth
(Government Role)
Effective
Use of Growth
Selecting the right sources of growth (Eg: SL&JPN)
Creation of ‘priority industries’ (Singapore)
Creation of growth centers to generate ‘spread effects’ – Industrial clusters (Korea)
Improving ‘local content’ in industries – Increased factor income (Japan, China)
Transforming subsistence agriculture and petty trade to productive economic activities
Climbing ‘technology ladder’ with FDI led industries – From labor intensive to knowledge intensive
(East Asian Tigers)
Modernizing/ upgrading production systems (Use of technology to save labor)
Creating inclusive/ participatory growth system – Local labor, capital, technology (Japan, Korea,
China)
Integrating means of growth – Agri - Industry – Services – Trading (with growth objectives)
Growth directed to socioeconomic transformation:
Work skill development
Invention development (R&D)
Entrepreneurial skill development
Social modernization
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
24
What is the Capital Market
Capital Markets enable channeling of wealth of savers to those who can utilize funds
productively in the long-term
There is no intermediation cost (as opposed to Banks)
both savers and borrowers gain
27
Why we need a Capital Market
Per capita income has reached levels where wealth management is feasible
Investors will demand higher returns
New instruments with acceptable risk will be required
Exit/Liquidity for share/security holders
28
State of the Capital Market
- Continuous decline in the equity market
8,000
7,000
6,500
6,000
• Super Gains Tax
5,500
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jul-16
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Mar-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-19
Jan-14
Nov-17
Mar-18
Nov-14
Nov-15
Jan-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Source:- CSE, Broker Research 29
State of the Capital Market
- Decline in the average daily turnover of CSE
LKR Mn 1,415
1,400
1,200
1,059
1,000
915
800 834
737
600 639
400
200
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Jul 2019
80.0 30.0
70.0
60.0
Concessions
50.0
20.0 26.0
20.0
17.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
39.4 4.0
33.1 34.2
10.0
5.0 5.0
16.0
- -
40
20
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
100.0
(LKR
Bn) 90.0 8.1
80.0 8.4
8.8
70.0 9.1
60.0 7.3
50.0
40.0 85.8
77.3
70.6 65.0
30.0 59.0
20.0
10.0
-
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EPF ETF
*Proxies used for 2017 and 2018 data Source:- EPF & ETF annual reports, Bloomberg 33
State of the Capital Market
- Decline in Market Capitalization to GDP ratio
Market Capitalization to GDP
30.0% (2014 - 2018)
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source:- CSE data library
34
State of the Capital Market
Most of the KPIs related to Capital Markets have deteriorated
Profitability of institutions linked to capital markets have declined rapidly
Most are loss making
Professionals attached to these institutions have moved to other industries or
migrated to other countries
35
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Sentiment should change
But it is a short term solution
Political
Improved Stability
Security
Economy
Growth
Create a level playing field to all A number of investors ignore Sri Lanka
due to a lack of a CCP
Confidence will increase
Turnover can go up by c. 20% - 30%
37
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Improve governance structures
38
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Develop Human Resources
Training of personnel
Research
Advisory
Investment Banking Support from foreign
Wealth Management strategic partners
New products
Systems and Processes
Setting up a capital market academy
Can go up to a Post Graduate qualification or a Charter
Attract Sri Lankan experts working abroad
Reverse brain drain
39
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Increase the participation of local investors
Encourage captive sources to invest (EPF, ETF, SLIC and other funds)
Conduct educational programs to retail investors
Reduce transaction cost for fixed income instruments Enabling trade
Promote unit trust as an investment vehicle
Outsource Fund Management where institutional capabilities are lacking
Digitalization of processes
Convenience to local investors
Attraction of foreign investors
Country should be stable
Conduct road shows in strategic financial centres
Organize Fund Managers conferences in Sri Lanka
Gradually get into regional and global Indices
40
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Increase the depth of the capital market
List commercially viable smaller scale SOEs
ESOPs
Restructure and list large scale SOEs
Encourage/promote private companies to list Will take place when valuations are right
and liquidity improves
Increase the breath of capital market
Introduce new products
Exchange Traded Funds
Have a level playing field for taxation
REITs
Derivatives
Promote/Upgrade Dollar Board to list regional entities
41
Plans to revive the Capital Market
Others
Introduction of Securitization Act
Incentives for venture capital and private equity funds
Encourage distribution of wealth management products through financial
institutions
Obtain CBSL support
Credit rating of the country should improve
42
Concern 1
Lack of Counterparty Guarantee and the resultant Counterparty
Risk
Consequence Trading in the market is restricted to the fund managers who are
willing to bear this risk
Short Term Medium Term
43
Concern 2 Regulatory framework not on par with global standards
New SEC Act has to be sanctioned Institution Building at all levels including
SEC, CSE and stockbrokers
Surveillance capabilities to be
Solutions strengthened Introduction of IT systems including the
use of AI to identify malpractices
The proposed Act will give more enforcing powers Continuous improvement and upgrades
to SEC and CSE and will enable civil proceedings
Other amongst others. are required
Considerations It will also impose a fiduciary responsibility for
advisors and other intermediaries
44
Concern 3 Lack of Independence at CSE which is now owned by stockbrokers
Consequence
Self-regulation is constrained due to conflict of interest leading to
lowering of confidence in the system
Short Term Medium Term
CSE is lagging behind in the SARCC region as most of the leading exchanges have been
Other demutualised. This has a negative impact on the brand
Considerations
45
Concern 4 Weak institutions in the capital markets
46
Concern 5
Lack of participation of local investors in capital markets (Debt and
Equity)
47
Concern 6
Lack of participation of foreign investors in capital markets (Debt
and Equity)
Consequence
Self-regulation is constrained due to conflict of interest leading to
lowering of confidence in the system
Short Term Medium Term
Conduct roadshows to promote investment Need large issues with an attractive
opportunities investment thesis (refer concerns 7 and 8
Solutions Conduct fund manager conferences in Sri Lanka below)
Increase public float in closely held listed firms
to enhance liquidity
Larger Issues will attract large scale investors. This results in inflow of much needed Long
Other term capital to fund the growth phase
Considerations
48
Concern 7 Lack of depth in the capital market
List commercially viable smaller scale Restructure and list large scale SOEs
SOEs or subsidiaries of SOEs (eg: LTL)
Listing of PPP Projects: Initially debt
Solutions
China, India, Vietnam, etc., have all carried out similar exercises (eg: Large Banks in India
Other and China)
Considerations
These IPO proceeds will help to bring in foreign exchange and reduced budget deficits
Line Ministry
Responsibility CSE/SEC
49
Concern 8 Lack of breadth in the capital market
Index funds are essential for issuance of derivatives. Investors of Index fund/REITs should be broad based
Other Govt. can setup REITs for real estate rich, cash short SOEs Monetizing of idle assets
Considerations Index funds are attractive to passive global investors. This can bring in forex to the Country
In creation of long term fixed income instruments, would help mitigate asset and liability mismatches
Line Ministry
Responsibility CSE/SEC
50
Other initiatives to develop the capital Market
51
Thank you
August 2019
52
Future Of Sri Lanka Tourism
Opportunities and Challenges
Opportunity
Highest growth projected in south Asia and East Asia while 80% of global arrivals are
shared by 20 countries.
2. Regional Performance
Conclusion – Market size is sufficient for Sri Lanka to easily reach 3-4 times more arrivals.
Action – A comprehensive plan to benefit from the global tourism arrival potential.
3. Carrying Capacity
Potential
Month 2018 Capacity
January 238,924 253,169
February 235,618 253,169
March 233,382 253,169
April 180,429 253,169
May 129,466 253,169
June 146,828 253,169
July 217,829 253,169
August 200,359 253,169
September 149,087 253,169
October 153,123 253,169
November 195,582 253,169
December 253,169 253,169
Total 2,333,796 3,038,028
3. Carrying Capacity
Tourism
Density per
Country Surface Area (km²) Arrivals (2018) sq.km
Conclusion – Current capacity has the potential to host 3 to 4 times than the current arrivals.
Action – Short –term marketing plan to increase arrivals and Conduct a proper carrying capacity study.
4. Importance Of Defending The Current Market Share From Europe And
Increasing The Share From Asia
Region Arrivals - 2018 Market Share
Europe
UK 254,176 11%
Germany 156,888 7%
France 106,449 5%
Other European
Countries 500,348 21%
Total 1,017,861 44%
Asia
India 424,887 18%
China 265,965 11%
Other Asian Countries 400,948 17%
Total 1,091,800 47%
Action - Defend an yield manage the European market and increase the volume from Asia.
5. Intra – Regional Travel
Conclusion – Intra regional travel to Sri Lanka is lower compared to far East - Asian countries.
Action – Develop a strategy to increase intra regional travel to increase arrivals specially during off season.
6. Easter Sunday Attack – Impact Analysis Model
Reduction of Risk
Positive Perception
Recovery Marketing
Plan Reduction
Easter
of Arrivals
Sunday
Attack
Travel Bans Alternative
Stereotyping by
Destinations
Media Exposure Consumers
Negative Received
61
7. Impact Analysis Post Easter Sunday Attack - Assumptions
2-4
-55% -40%
months
5-7
-33% -30%
months
8-9
-24% -20%
months
10 month -28% -10%
11 - 12
20% Increase 10% Increase
months
62
8. Role of Private Sector
Action – Private sector should have their own action plans to promote tourism.
8. Role of Entertainment in Tourism
Number Of Apartments
Project Type Year
Cinnamon Life Luxury apartments, Office, Mall & Hotel 2021
Altair Luxury apartments, Retails & entertainment 2020
Shangri-La, Galle Face One Luxury apartments, Office, Retail & Hotel 2019
ITC, Colombo One Luxury apartments, Office, Mall & Hotel 2020
Abans, Colombo City Centre Apartments, Hotel, Mall &3D Cinema 2019
Cinnamon Life
Action – City of Colombo should have sufficient attractions and experiences to attract and retain visitors.
8. Role of Entertainment in Tourism
Country Entertainment Tax Withholding Tax VAT/GST Total
15% +NBT+VAT = 16%
Sri Lanka 10%- 14% 15% 41%- 45%
**
Maldives N/A 10% 6% 16%
25% (withholding tax can be
Thailand N/A 15% 10% reduced or exempted based on
double taxation treaties)
Action – Provide a moratorium for few years to increase the no of international events to draw travelers from the
region.
8. Role of Entertainment in Tourism
Mannar
Trincomalee
Kurunegal
Batticaloa
a
Negombo
Kandy
Hambantota
Galle
Matara
Value Addition Agriculture & Industrial Parks Tourist
Centers Farming Attractions
76