Math 218 (Fall 2008) Quiz 2 Solutions TA: Wei Lin

Name: Section (circle one): 2pm 3pm 4pm

1. (5 pts) A PhD program in probability and statistics requires its students to take a screen-
ing exam during their first year of study. Assume that of the students who complete their
degrees eventually, 10% fail the screening exam, and of those who fail to complete their
degrees eventually, 80% fail the screening exam. In parts (a) and (b), assume also that
5% of all students in the program fail to complete their degrees eventually.

(a) (2 pts) Draw a probability table summarizing the information.

Solution.
Pass the exam Fail the exam Total
Complete the degree (.9)(.95) = .855 (.1)(.95) = .095 .95
Fail to complete the degree (.2)(.05) = .01 (.8)(.05) = .04 .05
Total .865 .135 1

(b) (2 pts) Find the probability that a student fails to complete his/her degree eventu-
ally, given that he/she fails the screening exam.
Solution.

P (fail to complete the degree | fail the exam)

P (fail to complete the degree and fail the exam)
=
P (fail the exam)
.04 8
= = .
.135 27

(c) (1 pt) The screening exam is considered predictive if the conditional probability in
part (b) is no less than .8. What fraction of students failing to complete their
degrees eventually can make the screening exam predictive?
Solution. Let the fraction be x. Then the table in part (a) becomes
Pass the exam Fail the exam Total
Complete the degree .9(1 − x) .1(1 − x) 1−x
Fail to complete the degree .2x .8x x
Total .9(1 − x) + .2x .1(1 − x) + .8x 1
We want to have
.8x
≥ .8.
.1(1 − x) + .8x

Solving this inequality yields x ≥ 1/3.

1
2. (5 pts) A bookstore puts one probability book and two statistics books on the shelf.
The probability book has a .6 chance to be sold, and if it is sold, the probabilities that
none, one, or two of the statistics books are sold are .2, .5, and .3, respectively. If the
probability book is not sold, the probabilities of selling none, one, or two statistics books
become .4, .4, and .2, respectively.

(a) (2 pts) Draw a probability tree summarizing the information.

Solution.
# probability books sold # statistics books sold

none .4 (.4)(.4) = .16

none .4 one .4 (.4)(.4) = .16
two .2 (.4)(.2) = .08

none .2 (.6)(.2) = .12

one .6 one .5 (.6)(.5) = .3
two .3 (.6)(.3) = .18

(b) (2 pts) Given that two books are sold, find the probability that exactly one proba-
bility book and one statistics book are sold.
Solution. Let X be the number of probability books sold and Y the number of
statistics books sold. We have
P (X = 1, Y = 1)
P (X = 1, Y = 1 | X + Y = 2) =
P (X + Y = 2)
P (X = 1, Y = 1)
=
P (X = 1, Y = 1) + P (X = 0, Y = 2)
.3 .3 15
= = = .
.3 + .08 .38 19

(c) (1 pt) Are the event “the probability book is sold” and the event “the statistics
books are sold out” independent? Explain.
Solution. No. Since

P (Y = 2) = .08 + .18 = .26 6= .3 = P (Y = 2 | X = 1),

the event X = 1 and the event Y = 2 are not independent.