Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019

September 24th 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 30.3 40.0 12.4 13.9 - 3.3
Quebec 20.0 35.4 9.6 9.4 22.3 2.4
Ontario 34.3 38.0 14.3 9.0 - 2.9
Prairies 49.8 24.1 13.9 7.2 - 4.1
Alberta 62.0 16.7 10.3 6.6 - 3.6
BC 32.9 28.9 17.2 16.3 - 3.7
Canada* 35.1 33.0 12.9 10.1 4.6 3.0

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 23 2 0 0
Quebec 14 43 2 0 19 0
Ontario 46 63 12 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 34 0 0 0 0
BC 23 9 5 4 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 145 147 22 4 19 0 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Avalon 28% 45% 11% 13% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 22% 64% 2% 11% 3%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 30% 57% 1% 11% 3%
NFL

Labrador 26% 54% 9% 11% 3%

Long Range Mountains 24% 56% 6% 13% 3%
St. John's East 19% 29% 39% 12% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 17% 40% 31% 12% 3%
Cardigan 29% 48% 6% 17% 3%
Charlottetown 27% 39% 18% 17% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 41% 32% 14% 13% 4%
Malpeque 30% 44% 6% 20% 3%
Cape Breton--Canso 28% 54% 3% 14% 3%
Central Nova 38% 42% 5% 15% 4%
Cumberland--Colchester 38% 47% 1% 14% 4%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 26% 41% 19% 14% 3%
Halifax 21% 34% 30% 14% 3%
NS

Halifax West 28% 51% 7% 15% 3%

Kings--Hants 31% 54% 1% 14% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 27% 30% 29% 14% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 35% 40% 12% 14% 4%
Sydney--Victoria 24% 53% 8% 14% 3%
West Nova 38% 45% 2% 15% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 20% 33% 34% 13% 3%
Beauséjour 24% 51% 10% 15% 3%
Fredericton 40% 32% 5% 23% 4%
Fundy Royal 49% 23% 13% 15% 5%
Madawaska--Restigouche 29% 38% 21% 13% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 46% 30% 10% 14% 4%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 33% 40% 11% 15% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 50% 26% 8% 16% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 42% 31% 13% 14% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 49% 29% 6% 16% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 14% 34% 19% 10% 22% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 11% 31% 24% 9% 23% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 11% 47% 15% 9% 16% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 16% 46% 5% 10% 22% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 15% 44% 8% 10% 22% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 11% 43% 8% 9% 26% 2%
Beauce 30% 21% 0% 8% 10% 30%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
35% 26% 5% 9% 22% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 34% 26% 8% 10% 18% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 15% 24% 6% 9% 44% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 51% 20% 0% 10% 15% 4%
 Beloeil--Chambly 13% 28% 13% 9% 35% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 20% 24% 9% 30% 2%
Bourassa 13% 55% 0% 10% 20% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 15% 44% 8% 10% 22% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 16% 50% 9% 9% 15% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 45% 24% 2% 10% 16% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 15% 39% 7% 9% 28% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 44% 30% 2% 9% 12% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 16% 37% 11% 9% 25% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 14% 53% 8% 9% 14% 2%
Drummond 21% 27% 13% 10% 27% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 10% 38% 19% 8% 23% 2%
Gatineau 12% 54% 10% 9% 13% 2%
Hochelaga 11% 31% 14% 11% 31% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 16% 57% 1% 9% 16% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 12% 52% 15% 9% 10% 2%
Joliette 14% 29% 7% 10% 38% 2%
Jonquière 28% 25% 10% 9% 24% 3%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 12% 29% 11% 9% 36% 2%
La Prairie 16% 36% 7% 9% 30% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 32% 24% 11% 9% 21% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 20% 61% 0% 10% 7% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 10% 42% 15% 10% 21% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 14% 33% 7% 10% 34% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 8% 24% 22% 11% 32% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 22% 49% 0% 9% 16% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 51% 21% 0% 9% 15% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 13% 35% 8% 10% 31% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 13% 30% 14% 10% 31% 2%

Louis-Hébert 31% 35% 3% 10% 18% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 52% 21% 0% 9% 14% 4%
Manicouagan 14% 30% 0% 9% 44% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 16% 42% 4% 9% 26% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 39% 29% 4% 9% 16% 3%
Mirabel 14% 27% 11% 10% 36% 2%
Montarville 14% 32% 9% 10% 32% 3%
Montcalm 14% 29% 4% 10% 41% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
31% 28% 11% 9% 19% 3%
Mount Royal 37% 46% 0% 8% 6% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 17% 56% 8% 10% 7% 2%
Outremont 13% 34% 26% 11% 13% 2%
Papineau 9% 53% 11% 10% 15% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 14% 28% 8% 16% 32% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 22% 56% 3% 8% 8% 2%
Pontiac 18% 55% 6% 9% 10% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 47% 22% 4% 9% 14% 4%
Québec 26% 29% 10% 10% 23% 3%
Repentigny 15% 29% 4% 10% 40% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 34% 25% 8% 9% 22% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
11% 28% 28% 9% 22% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 15% 33% 10% 10% 30% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 13% 27% 11% 10% 36% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 9% 21% 33% 11% 24% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 20% 28% 11% 10% 28% 2%
Saint-Jean 14% 33% 13% 9% 28% 2%
Saint-Laurent 22% 58% 0% 9% 9% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 15% 64% 0% 9% 10% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 20% 41% 4% 9% 23% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 14% 29% 13% 9% 32% 2%
Shefford 16% 39% 7% 10% 26% 2%
Sherbrooke 13% 30% 20% 9% 25% 2%
Terrebonne 16% 29% 6% 9% 37% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 17% 34% 6% 10% 31% 3%
Trois-Rivières 22% 30% 14% 9% 22% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 17% 46% 6% 9% 19% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 15% 49% 10% 12% 13% 2%
Vimy 18% 48% 2% 10% 21% 2%
Ajax 34% 50% 6% 8% 3%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 24% 27% 38% 7% 3%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 45% 41% 4% 8% 3%
Barrie--Innisfil 46% 30% 10% 11% 3%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 42% 34% 8% 12% 4%
Bay of Quinte 34% 44% 10% 9% 3%
Beaches--East York 16% 43% 28% 10% 2%
Brampton Centre 33% 43% 13% 7% 3%
Brampton East 23% 47% 21% 6% 3%
Brampton North 33% 43% 15% 7% 3%
Brampton South 35% 47% 9% 7% 3%
Brampton West 30% 50% 11% 7% 3%
Brantford--Brant 41% 24% 23% 8% 4%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 44% 33% 10% 11% 3%
Burlington 41% 39% 7% 10% 3%
Cambridge 38% 37% 12% 10% 3%
Carleton 46% 36% 4% 11% 3%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 39% 34% 18% 7% 3%
Davenport 10% 39% 39% 10% 2%
Don Valley East 29% 51% 8% 10% 2%
Don Valley North 37% 45% 6% 9% 3%
Don Valley West 37% 47% 4% 9% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 43% 33% 6% 15% 3%
Durham 45% 29% 14% 9% 3%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 43% 4% 8% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 50% 26% 14% 7% 3%
Essex 36% 16% 39% 6% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 47% 6% 8% 3%
Etobicoke North 23% 57% 10% 8% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 32% 48% 9% 9% 3%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 43% 33% 12% 9% 3%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 36% 46% 6% 9% 3%
Guelph 26% 43% 10% 18% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 45% 32% 12% 7% 3%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 44% 25% 17% 11% 3%
 Hamilton Centre 16% 29% 40% 11% 4%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 25% 33% 30% 8% 3%
Hamilton Mountain 26% 28% 34% 9% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 32% 42% 14% 10% 3%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 41% 35% 11% 10% 3%
Humber River--Black Creek 20% 61% 9% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 45% 32% 11% 9% 3%
Kanata--Carleton 38% 44% 5% 10% 3%
Kenora 29% 29% 32% 7% 3%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 48% 15% 11% 3%
King--Vaughan 43% 42% 5% 7% 3%
Kitchener Centre 30% 42% 15% 10% 4%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 36% 36% 14% 11% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 42% 36% 8% 10% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 48% 26% 16% 7% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 47% 27% 12% 10% 4%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau47%
Lakes 33% 7% 11% 3%
London North Centre 31% 46% 13% 7% 3%
London West 35% 41% 13% 6% 4%
London--Fanshawe 29% 28% 33% 7% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 42% 43% 4% 8% 3%
Markham--Thornhill 32% 49% 9% 8% 3%
Markham--Unionville 49% 37% 3% 9% 3%
Milton 44% 34% 9% 9% 4%
Mississauga Centre 33% 49% 8% 7% 3%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 35% 49% 7% 7% 3%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 39% 44% 8% 7% 3%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 41% 42% 6% 8% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 26% 54% 11% 7% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 40% 42% 7% 8% 3%
Nepean 36% 45% 6% 10% 3%
Newmarket--Aurora 42% 39% 7% 9% 3%
Niagara Centre 30% 30% 29% 8% 3%
Niagara Falls 39% 30% 20% 9% 3%
Niagara West 50% 27% 10% 9% 5%
Nickel Belt 17% 37% 36% 8% 3%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 30% 46% 14% 8% 3%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 39% 36% 13% 10% 3%
Oakville 41% 43% 4% 9% 3%
Oakville North--Burlington 42% 40% 5% 9% 4%
Orléans 30% 52% 6% 10% 2%
Oshawa 38% 21% 30% 9% 3%
Ottawa Centre 15% 35% 36% 11% 3%
Ottawa South 24% 53% 10% 11% 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean 30% 49% 8% 11% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 19% 50% 17% 11% 3%
Oxford 47% 28% 15% 7% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 13% 36% 37% 10% 4%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 41% 34% 9% 13% 3%
Perth--Wellington 44% 31% 13% 10% 3%
Peterborough--Kawartha 35% 37% 17% 9% 3%
Pickering--Uxbridge 38% 44% 7% 9% 3%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 51% 29% 8% 10% 3%
Richmond Hill 43% 41% 6% 8% 3%
Sarnia--Lambton 39% 22% 29% 6% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 32% 39% 20% 7% 3%
Scarborough Centre 32% 44% 9% 9% 6%
Scarborough North 27% 42% 20% 8% 3%
Scarborough Southwest 21% 46% 21% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 38% 46% 6% 8% 3%
Scarborough--Guildwood 26% 54% 9% 8% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 27% 54% 8% 9% 2%
Simcoe North 44% 33% 9% 12% 3%
Simcoe--Grey 47% 31% 8% 12% 3%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 49% 25% 9% 2%
St. Catharines 37% 37% 14% 8% 3%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 48% 33% 7% 10% 3%
Sudbury 22% 41% 26% 8% 3%
 Thornhill 58% 28% 4% 6% 4%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 22% 38% 28% 10% 3%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 18% 39% 21% 19% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 21% 28% 41% 7% 3%
Toronto Centre 12% 52% 24% 10% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 10% 37% 38% 12% 3%
Toronto--St. Paul's 26% 49% 12% 10% 2%
University--Rosedale 17% 44% 26% 10% 3%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 43% 43% 3% 7% 4%
Waterloo 31% 43% 13% 10% 3%
Wellington--Halton Hills 50% 30% 7% 11% 3%
Whitby 42% 39% 8% 9% 3%
Willowdale 36% 47% 5% 9% 3%
Windsor West 21% 20% 50% 6% 3%
Windsor--Tecumseh 28% 22% 42% 6% 3%
York Centre 43% 41% 5% 9% 3%
York South--Weston 19% 40% 28% 9% 5%
York--Simcoe 50% 30% 7% 10% 3%
Brandon--Souris 60% 25% 0% 11% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
47% 39% 2% 8% 4%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 21% 30% 39% 6% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 62% 19% 7% 9% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 43% 15% 29% 8% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 49% 33% 8% 6% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 73% 14% 0% 9% 4%
Man.

Provencher 65% 22% 0% 8% 4%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 37% 46% 6% 7% 4%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 63% 19% 5% 8% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 22% 42% 23% 9% 3%
Winnipeg North 25% 56% 9% 8% 3%
Winnipeg South 43% 46% 0% 7% 4%
Winnipeg South Centre 37% 47% 4% 8% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 68% 9% 14% 5% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 72% 7% 9% 7% 5%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 37% 25% 29% 5% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 69% 6% 14% 6% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 61% 10% 19% 6% 4%
Prince Albert 56% 12% 23% 5% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 40% 19% 31% 7% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 49% 14% 25% 7% 4%

Regina--Wascana 34% 47% 8% 7% 4%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 46% 18% 25% 7% 4%
Saskatoon--University 46% 16% 26% 7% 4%
Saskatoon West 38% 16% 35% 7% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 75% 5% 9% 6% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 64% 10% 16% 6% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 64% 20% 6% 7% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 80% 4% 6% 7% 3%
Bow River 79% 8% 4% 5% 3%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 47% 37% 5% 8% 3%
Calgary Confederation 48% 34% 6% 9% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 51% 27% 9% 9% 5%
Calgary Heritage 66% 17% 6% 8% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 69% 13% 6% 8% 3%
Calgary Nose Hill 62% 18% 8% 8% 4%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 62% 22% 5% 8% 3%
Calgary Shepard 68% 15% 6% 8% 3%
Calgary Signal Hill 63% 21% 4% 8% 4%
Calgary Skyview 44% 38% 7% 8% 3%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 39% 29% 23% 6% 3%
Edmonton Griesbach 45% 13% 32% 6% 4%
Edmonton Manning 50% 19% 22% 6% 3%
Edmonton Mill Woods 45% 33% 12% 6% 4%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 54% 21% 16% 5% 4%

Edmonton Strathcona 37% 24% 28% 6% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 53% 26% 12% 5% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 67% 15% 8% 6% 4%
Foothills 77% 8% 5% 7% 4%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 62% 22% 7% 5% 4%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 74% 9% 7% 6% 4%
Lakeland 73% 8% 9% 6% 4%
Lethbridge 59% 13% 19% 6% 3%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 70% 12% 8% 6% 3%
Peace River--Westlock 70% 7% 13% 6% 4%
Red Deer--Mountain View 75% 8% 7% 6% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 71% 9% 10% 6% 3%
St. Albert--Edmonton 58% 21% 12% 6% 3%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 69% 12% 9% 6% 4%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 72% 10% 9% 6% 3%
Yellowhead 73% 9% 8% 6% 5%
Abbotsford 52% 27% 6% 12% 4%
Burnaby North--Seymour 33% 29% 21% 14% 4%
Burnaby South 26% 22% 32% 11% 9%
Cariboo--Prince George 41% 26% 18% 11% 4%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 43% 31% 12% 11% 4%
Chilliwack--Hope 46% 28% 11% 12% 5%
Cloverdale--Langley City 39% 38% 7% 13% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 36% 28% 18% 12% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 32% 17% 26% 21% 3%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 27% 19% 25% 26% 3%
Delta 37% 42% 6% 12% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 22% 22% 24% 29% 3%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 34% 39% 13% 11% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 39% 24% 22% 10% 4%
Kelowna--Lake Country 43% 39% 7% 7% 4%
Kootenay--Columbia 41% 14% 27% 14% 4%
Langley--Aldergrove 47% 31% 4% 13% 5%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 40% 31% 13% 12% 4%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 27% 13% 19% 38% 3%
New Westminster--Burnaby 25% 23% 32% 14% 6%
North Island--Powell River 30% 21% 28% 18% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 43% 24% 18% 12% 4%

BC North Vancouver 31% 49% 0% 17% 3%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 36% 26% 21% 13% 4%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 34% 25% 25% 12% 4%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
56% 19% 8% 12% 5%
Richmond Centre 48% 34% 3% 11% 4%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 23% 12% 1% 62% 3%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 32% 14% 38% 12% 4%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 34% 23% 28% 11% 4%
South Surrey--White Rock 45% 36% 2% 12% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 43% 38% 3% 12% 4%
Surrey Centre 25% 38% 21% 12% 3%
Surrey--Newton 20% 49% 17% 11% 3%
Vancouver Centre 19% 51% 12% 14% 4%
Vancouver East 14% 26% 39% 18% 3%
Vancouver Granville 17% 28% 9% 11% 3% 32%
Vancouver Kingsway 24% 25% 35% 12% 5%
Vancouver Quadra 28% 54% 3% 13% 3%
Vancouver South 35% 44% 6% 11% 3%
Victoria 16% 22% 21% 37% 4%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky31%
Country48% 1% 18% 3%
Yukon 28% 47% 13% 9% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 22% 43% 23% 10% 3%

Nunavut 28% 41% 19% 8% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats