GAS DAILY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS

Volume 7 / Issue 184 / September 25, 2019

SUPPLY/DEMAND PLATTS KEY DAILY INDEXES ($/MMBtu)

Texas production sees new highs on GCX startup

NYMEX (prompt)
Symbol Midpoint +/-
NMNG001 2.503 -0.024 ---
Absolute Cash basis +/-

Total US supplies are down 0.6 Bcf/d Wednesday while demand is up
by an equal amount, although production will likely be revised higher in
subsequent cycles today, particularly in the Northeast. In Texas,
evening cycle flows show production at an all-time high of 22.7 Bcf/d
today, which is up 0.3 Bcf/d from Tuesday and in line with the
National average price IGBAA00 2.170 +0.000 --- -0.375 -0.010
Henry Hub IGBBL00 2.545 +0.010 2.520-2.590 --- ---
Chicago citygates IGBDX00 2.015 +0.050 1.940-2.120 -0.530 +0.040
Dawn, Ontario IGBCX00 2.010 -0.030 1.925-2.175 -0.535 -0.040
Dominion, South Point IGBDC00 1.540 +0.010 1.520-1.570 -1.005 +0.000
El Paso, Permian IGBAB00 1.765 +0.125 1.600-1.860 -0.780 +0.115

announced commercial startup of the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) El Paso, San Juan IGBCH00 1.795 +0.090 1.750-1.900 -0.750 +0.080
Florida Gas, zone 3 IGBBK00 2.600 +0.005 2.590-2.610 +0.055 -0.005
pipeline project scheduled for today. GCX is designed to move Houston Ship Channel IGBAP00 2.470 -0.020 2.460-2.475 -0.075 -0.030
constrained Permian production to Gulf Coast markets. Receipts onto NW, Can. Bdr. (Sumas) IGBCT00 2.360 +0.010 2.350-2.380 -0.185 +0.000

GCX from El Paso increased to nearly 0.8 Bcf/d for Wednesday’s
evening cycle, up more than 0.4 Bcf/d overnight and likewise more
than double the previous 30-day average receipt at that meter.
Panhandle, Tx.-Okla. IGBCE00 1.665 +0.005 1.635-1.750 -0.880 -0.005
PG&E city-gate IGBEB00 3.175 +0.030 3.170-3.210 +0.630 +0.020
SoCal Gas IGBDL00 3.080 +0.005 3.000-3.130 +0.535 -0.005
TCPL Alberta, AECO-C IGBCU00 0.780 -0.090 0.500-0.900 -1.765 -0.100
Tennessee, zone 4-300 leg IGBFL00 1.435 -0.025 1.400-1.500 -1.110 -0.035
Transco, zone 6 N.Y. IGBEM00 1.645 +0.025 1.630-1.650 -0.900 +0.015
Tx. Eastern, M-3 IGBEK00 1.625 +0.030 1.580-1.660 -0.920 +0.020
Waha IGBAD00 1.695 +0.050 1.550-1.830 -0.850 +0.040

US DEMAND FORECAST US GAS STORAGE SURPLUS vs ROLLING 5YEAR AVERAGE

(Bcf/d) Actual Forecast Normal Prior-day forecast (Bcf) ($/MMBtu)
75 400 7
Storage surplus HH cash (right)
200 3-week forecast HH prompt (right) 6
70 0 5
-200 4
65 -400 3
-600 2
60 -800 1
15-Sep 19-Sep 23-Sep 27-Sep 01-Oct 05-Oct 09-Oct Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

US GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND (Bcf/d)

RECENT FORECAST HISTORY
Daily Next 7-Day 8-14 Day M
TD Change YTD Change
19-Sep 20-Sep 21-Sep 22-Sep 23-Sep 24-Sep 25-Sep Change 26-Sep Average Average 2019 2018 Chg 2019 2018 Chg
Dry Production 90.4 90.3 90.6 90.5 89.4 90.2 89.5 -0.7 89.8 90.1 90.3 90.3 84.9 5.4 88.2 80.8 7.4
Canadian Imports 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 0.1 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 -0.1 4.5 5.3 -0.8
LNG Sendout 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.1
Total Supply 94.5 94.2 94.4 94.5 93.5 94.4 93.8 -0.6 94.5 94.7 94.6 94.6 89.3 5.3 92.9 86.4 6.5
Power Burn 32.9 31.6 31.8 33.3 35.0 35.5 35.4 -0.1 34.8 34.3 30.3 36.7 35.7 1.0 31.1 29.9 1.2
Industrial 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.0 0.1 21.2 21.2 21.5 21.1 21.0 0.1 22.3 22.1 0.2
Res/Comm 12.5 11.5 11.0 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.2 0.2 12.4 12.5 14.5 11.3 11.6 -0.3 24.0 23.6 0.4
Mexican Exports 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.8 0.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.0 0.4 5.1 4.6 0.5
LNG Feedgas 6.3 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 0.0 6.5 6.8 7.0 6.1 3.2 2.9 5.1 3.2 1.9
Pipe Loss 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.0 2.2 2.2 0.0
Total Demand 80.2 77.3 76.7 78.3 80.6 82.0 82.6 0.6 82.4 82.4 80.7 82.6 78.5 4.1 89.8 85.6 4.2
Balance 0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.8 -0.7 -1.5 0.8
Implied Storage Chg 14.7 16.3 17.0 15.3 12.3 11.7 11.2 -0.5 12.1 12.4 13.9 12.5 10.4 2.1 2.3 -0.6 2.9
Temps vs. Normal 1.1 3.0 4.9 5.9 6.0 4.5 3.9 -0.6 4.0 5.4 3.0 3.1 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.8 -0.5

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GAS DAILY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS SEPTEMBER 25, 2019

WEEKLY STORAGE

WEEKLY US GAS MARKET FUNDAMENTALS (Bcf/week) DAILY CHANGES IN WEEKLY US GAS STORAGE INJWITH ESTIMATES
RECENT FORECAST (Bcf) 19-Sep * Final Estimate (19-Sep) 26-Sep * 03-Oct *
110
29-Aug 05-Sep 12-Sep 19-Sep 26-Sep 03-Oct

Dry Gas Production 635 637 632 632 630 631 100
Net Canadian Imports 27 30 32 32 31 32
90
LNG Sendout 1 1 1 1 0 0
Exports to Mexico -38 -38 -38 -37 -38 -39 80
LNG Feedgas -46 -43 -41 -45 -43 -48
70
U.S. Demand -500 -507 -508 -493 -480 -491 06-Sep 09-Sep 12-Sep 15-Sep 18-Sep 22-Sep 25-Sep
Balance 7 -1 8 3 -4 -3 *Week ending.

Weekly Storage Change 84 78 84 90 95 83

US GAS STORAGE INVENTORY
(Bcf)
Last Year 64 68 84 51 91 91 4500
4500
5-Year Avg. 66 73 82 74 83 89
Storage Inventory 2941 3019 3103 3193 3288 3371 3500
3500

2500
2500
2018 2019
TOP DAILY CHANGES TO US SUPPLY/DEMAND (Bcf/d) 1500
1500
3-week storage forecast
5-year avg
5-year min-max range
30-Day 30-Day Av
24-Sep 25-Sep Change Average Last Year Change 500
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Production by Region
Northeast 32.48 31.95 -0.53 32.53 29.75 2.78
CANADIAN STORAGE INVENTORIES
(Bcf) 2018 2019 3-year avg
Texas_Onshore 22.20 22.54 0.34 22.09 20.54 1.55 800

700
Regional Demand
Midcon Market-Power 2.63 2.42 -0.21 2.75 2.80 -0.05 600

Northeast-ResComm 3.95 4.15 0.20 3.62 3.77 -0.15 500

400
Pipeline Corridor Flows
300
MCM to ECA 1.84 1.36 -0.48 1.88 2.24 -0.36
200
MCM to NE -1.93 -1.65 0.28 -2.05 -2.01 -0.04 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

US LOWER 48 PRODUCTION

US DRY GAS PRODUCTION BY REGION (Bcf/d) US DRY GAS PRODUCTION FORECAST

TODAY FORECAST HISTORY (Bcf/d) Previous year Current year 14-day forecast Month avg outlook
Daily Next 7-Day MTD MTD 95
24-Sep 25-Sep Chg 26-Sep Average Avg. Last Year Chg
North 34.7 34.2 -0.5 34.4 34.6 34.7 31.7 3.0
South 42.2 42.2 0.0 42.3 42.3 42.2 40.0 2.2
West 13.3 13.1 -0.2 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.3 0.1
Total US 90.2 89.5 -0.7 89.8 90.1 90.3 84.9 5.4 90

TOP 5 DAILY PRODUCTION SAMPLE CHANGES (MMcf/d)

30-Day 30-Day Av 85
24-Sep 25-Sep Change Average Last Year Change
Permian 4,579 5,022 443 4,739 4,570 169
Marcellus 24,785 24,350 -435 24,804 22,417 2,387
Haynesville 5,445 5,256 -189 5,566 5,112 454
East Texas 3,123 2,966 -157 3,044 2,274 770 80
Utica 7,521 7,417 -104 7,525 6,977 548 01-Aug 17-Aug 01-Sep 16-Sep 01-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov

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GAS DAILY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS SEPTEMBER 25, 2019

DEMAND

US GAS DEMAND DATA (Bcf/d) TOTAL US GAS DEMAND

TODAY FORECAST HISTORY (Bcf/d) Previous year Current year 14-day forecast Month avg outlook
110
Daily Next 7-Day MTD MTD
24-Sep 25-Sep Chg 26-Sep Average Avg. Last Year Chg 100
North (NE-MW) 90
Power 10.8 10.6 -0.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.5 -0.3
80
Industrial 6.2 6.3 0.1 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.4 -0.1
Res/Comm 7.3 7.5 0.2 7.6 7.2 6.8 7.1 -0.3 70

Modeled Total 24.3 24.3 0.1 24.4 24.2 24.3 25.0 -0.7 60
02-Aug 17-Aug 01-Sep 16-Sep 01-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov
South (SE-TX-MC)
Power 18.8 18.9 0.1 18.9 19.1 19.4 18.5 1.0 US FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
Industrial 11.6 11.5 -0.1 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.4 0.2 (°F) Actual Forecast Normal Prior-day forecast
80
Res/Comm 3.2 3.1 -0.1 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 0.0
Modeled Total 33.6 33.5 -0.1 33.7 33.8 34.1 32.9 1.2 75

West (RX-SW-NW) 70
Power 5.9 5.9 0.0 5.5 4.5 6.0 5.7 0.3
Industrial 3.2 3.2 0.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 -0.0 65
Res/Comm 3.5 3.6 0.2 3.6 4.3 3.4 3.5 -0.0
60
Modeled Total 12.6 12.8 0.2 12.4 12.1 12.7 12.4 0.3 15-Sep 19-Sep 23-Sep 27-Sep 01-Oct 05-Oct 09-Oct

IMPORTS/EXPORTS

US GAS IMPORTS & EXPORTS (Bcf/d) LNG FEEDGAS BY TERMINAL

TODAY FORECAST HISTORY (Bcf/d)
Daily Next 7-Day MTD MTD 7
24-Sep 25-Sep Chg 26-Sep Average Avg. Last Year Chg
Net Imports Canada 6
Northeast -0.83 -0.95 -0.12 -0.96 -0.96 -0.90 -0.74 -0.16
Midwest 2.05 2.26 0.21 2.61 2.53 2.02 1.58 0.44
Northwest 3.00 3.02 0.02 3.05 3.05 3.07 3.43 -0.36 5
Freeport
Total 4.22 4.33 0.11 4.70 4.62 4.19 4.27 -0.08
Net Exports Mexico 4 Elba Express
Texas 4.60 4.95 0.35 4.62 4.66 4.52 4.11 0.41
Cameron
Southwest 0.84 0.87 0.03 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.90 -0.06
Total 5.44 5.82 0.38 5.45 5.50 5.36 5.01 0.35 3 Corpus Christi
LNG Sendout*
Sabine Pass
North -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.13 -0.04 2
South 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 Cove Point
Total 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.11 0.14 -0.03
1
LNG Feedgas**
North 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.26 0.55 0.57 0.47 0.10
0
South 6.17 6.24 0.07 4.17 4.18 5.52 2.69 2.83
Total 6.18 6.25 0.07 4.43 4.73 6.09 3.16 2.93 25-Mar 24-Apr 24-May 23-Jun 23-Jul 22-Aug 21-Sep
*LNG Sendout is the total natural gas received by US interstate pipelines from existing LNG import
terminals. **LNG Feedgas is the total natural gas delivered by interstate pipelines to LNG export terminals.

IMPORTS FROM CANADA EXPORTS TO MEXICO

(Bcf/d) Previous year Current year 14-day forecast Month avg outlook (Bcf/d) Previous year Current year 14-day forecast Month avg outlook
6 6.0

5 5.5

4 5.0

3 4.5

2 4.0
02-Aug 17-Aug 01-Sep 16-Sep 01-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov 02-Aug 17-Aug 01-Sep 16-Sep 01-Oct 16-Oct 31-Oct 15-Nov 30-Nov

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GAS DAILY MARKET FUNDAMENTALS SEPTEMBER 25, 2019

COMPETITIVE FUELS

PLATTS COMPETITIVE FUEL PRICES, SEPTEMBER 24 NORTHEAST COMPETITIVE FUEL COSTS

Midpoint (various units) +/- $/MMBtu +/- ($/MMBtu) ULSD NY Harbor Barge NY Resid Transco Zn6 NY CAPP Rail
20
Coal ($/st)
PRB 8800 OTC 12.10 +0.00 0.688 +0.000
CAPP rail (CSX) OTC 44.00 +0.00 1.760 +0.000
15
NGL (¢/gal)
Ethane Purity (Mont Belvieu) 19.750 -1.000 2.970 -0.150
Propane (Mont Belvieu) 45.500 -0.750 4.973 -0.082
10
Oil ($/barrel)
Gulf Coast High Sulfur Fuel Oil (1) 49.67 -0.96 7.947 -0.154
ULSD New York Harbor Barge (1) 196.71 -2.84 14.163 -0.205 5
New York 1% Resid (3) 60.73 -1.21 9.717 -0.193
WTI crude (2) 57.17 -1.47 9.857 -0.253
Natural gas ($/MMBtu) 0
Henry Hub spot 2.545 +0.010 26-Mar 23-Apr 20-May 18-Jun 23-Jul 22-Aug 24-Sep
NYMEX gas futures 2.503 -0.024
Columbia Gas, Appalachia 2.080 +0.060
SOUTHEAST COMPETITIVE FUEL COSTS
Florida Gas, zone 3 2.600 +0.005
Transco, zone 4 2.560 +0.030 ($/MMBtu) USGC fuel oil FL Gas Zn3 cash Transco Zn4 cash CAPP Rail
Transco, zone 6-New York 1.645 +0.025 12
1 = barge delivery; 2=pipeline delivery; 3 =cargo delivery
10

GAS DAILY LINKS 8

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