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Whenever the fast macd is poised to enter +ve zone, one can expect a big move on that day.
9-Day rsi is a good indicator for overbought & oversold in a normal market. In strong trend, these tend to stay
Slow stochastics(14,3,3) also helps.Divergences (except during strong trends where prices move in leaps and bo
When the day TA is uptrending, till it reaches overbought zone & starts to turn down, look at the price behavio
How much pull back it does during the upmove. Use this information to re-enter.
For eg:
5136 to the current high, Nifty has pulled back to a maximum of 31-32 points only.
Let Day trend gets exhausted with a close below DHEma. Now the correction would be more than 33 points an
75 to 110 points correction would emerge once day trend becomes overbought.
2. Understanding the maturity of an upmove/ downmove and the different T/F technicals would guide you to h
good points to part book. 75 to 120 points away from the recent top/ bottom is a good place to re-enter. Re-en
3.Knowledge of EW helps to understand various kinds of wves/ retracement possibilities for part booking & re-en
Option premium rise and fall for various reasons....technicals, time factor, etc.
I suggest to traders to resort to only writing options in the first 75% of series and resort to buying them only in
There are strong trending months when buying options is rewarding.
Above 5380 or at the completion of this current correction, one could contemplate buying options provided, the
The last fall from 5267.65 from yesterday's 3.00PM High was incomplete 5 waves and needed a new low to com
intraday chart" as well as "Oversold hour chart".
What is a corrective phase: It is the testing phase of bull & bears and hence you have a range bound moves are
Once one of them wins, they parade themselves in a "Trend".
So you trade in corrective phase, not holding.
and you hold in a trending phase, not trading.
Using TT to identify trending and corrective phase.
1. When uptrending Nifty closes below DHEma, corrective phase has set in.
This corrective phase should be between DHEma+20 to DLEma-20.
2. When downtrending Nifty closes above DLEma, corrective phase has set in.
This corrective phase should be between DHEma+20 to DLEma-20.
A simple guideline: Closing between DHEma and DLEma means corrective phase.
When JNSAR triggers during a corrective phase which has unresolved corrections, whipsaws tend to occur on t
Week's High & Low made today and hence wk & day will have same pivot, etc.
Opposite FII-DII cash data is there in this type of situation, I used to remain cautious.
When playing with JNSAR Wait for pull back closer to it.
How close it could come ?
As a thumb rule when hrly JNSAR first turn -ve and and
becomes +ve once you can be long.
Allow lower T/F to adjust the OB readings and move higher. So watch out for Nifty's action around "5279" in the
Fast rise/ fall set ups are nothing but "medium trend with short term trend corrections".
If the corrections is limited above the medium trend as reflected by a medium term average & short term aver
It could be an independent study as one of my critics is fond of it and swear by it.
OR you could use this as an input along with other TA studies.
A weak technicals at the oversold point is a bearish. Oversold week, instead of reversing up, is moving down ag
The rule says: 3rd is never the smallest. And if your 3rd becomes bigger than the 1st, 5th can be anything and t
The other two unbreakable rules are: 4th wave never moves into the territory of the 1st wave.
And 2nd wave never retraces 100% of the first wave.
Lastly, EW should be fun to follow. And the ones who miss this glorious study are missing on something "divine
Averages may be aligned bullishly but the "most important price" is below "all of those averages".
It will start to look mildly bullish only if it closes above 200sma first.
Remember: Good news during downtrends are opportunities to "Resell". Never forget this.
Only exception would be (rare) when the price itself is exhausted & at its terminal stage with +ve divergences.
The counter trend trades are always risky but the "c" waves are highly rewarding if spotted correctly. You need
Sequence is there in the TT. Read the guidelines and respect the fresh signals as well as the higher time frame's s
When a set up looks "risk-worthy", initiate trades.
Observe the market based on those guidelines and you'll find it better to understand.
Knowing simple Elliott wave theory and applying them along with classic technical analysis covers almost 'all aspe
There are times, market has no message...marketmen are indecisive which gets reflected in stagnant prices. Step
Knowing EW reveals to you that the rises during major downtrend are correctives and knowing classic TA show
targets, etc..
A true trend follower should think of "sell on rises" till a close or a DLEma+20 is in place.
Having such a strategy, market gives you many such opportunities till "one trade is stopped out" or a reversal p
Even if price confirm,long may be risky when
intra falls will be bigger if longer T/F are negative.
In downtrend, if prices go above previous day high but could not sustain and slips below day pivot – SELL and h
In uptrend, if prices breaks down previous day low but bounces back above day pivot – BUY and hold till it clea
If you are a mechanical trader, above scenario adds strength to the position in hand.
What we have been discussing of an "ending diagonal" or falling wedge in TA could turn into a "Running correc
Golden ratio breach for deep cuts and 80% breach for deep cuts are not "rules" but guidelines.
A strong upmove in a sustained fashion from 4531 to 5630 should have had its correction limited to 50%. Exceed
Similarly golden ratio @ 4951.
For the day when Nifty breached 80% of the last rise from 4869 to 4955 @ 4880 this morning, another sell trigge
The hour +ve div played out yesterday with 9 hr rsi reaching 80+ at close hour. And the trend has resumed again
For intraday long play, another set up should emerge or Nifty should climb past opening level of 4875.
.. otherwise in down trending market when Buyers try very hard to sustain always up and above it’s immediate re
in anticipation of short covering, which truly never comes, due to down trending market, it used to loose it’s enti
Is there a way we can differentiate between real and false break out beforehand ?
Any indicators.trends or channel for reference ?
Yes there is a way, but can be done only at EOD.
You need to download the delivery positions file from NSe website.
Then you need to compare the %age deliverables for every
rising stock and every falling stock in the Nifty 50.
From this you can get a fair idea.
However, since during intraday one cannot know what will
be the delivery %age at the EOD, one cannot estimate this
intraday.
You have done a good study but you have missed the most important one which is "lacvk of upward momentum
our trade plan is to sell @ DHEma +10 or 20=4955 which coincided with:
Channel top @ 4950; Premarket's res. @ 4957.
As any trader should know that "getting the resistance at the open" in a sideways market(Being closed betwee
"Sell when you see the resistances on the screen and
Buy when the supports are reached".
Following was suggested to "mitigate JNSAR whipsaws" with 4960 & 4860 as decisive levels in the short term.
Ilango said...
Reply sent this morning to one of our readers:
Que: If JNSR triggered -say to -morrow , whether it is to be taken on intra day basis or end of day basis
Ans: Since JNSAR is close to the "Friday close prices", Hour TA has just turned up and if Asian cues are positive, JN
moving to 4955 zone and falling again to 4900-4880". Hence, you could go long @ 4880 itself at the open with 48
wait for a pull back to enter the trade. Even if none of this happens and JNSAR gets triggered in a different way, y
Que: If intra day basis, the first day no stop loss for this or 20 points stop loss.
Ans: We always manage the intraday trades with a 20 point SL. To me "4860" support is critical for upsides.
Que: From the next day onwards, JNSR minus 20 points , if the original trade is in profit
Ans: Yes..That is correct.
Que: What is the implications if JNSR is above or below J10 SAR.
Ans: It has been observed that whenever, J10SAR goes above JNSAR, there is strength for a reversal and vice vers
Though we expected the "last fall" to complete the downmove, we realised it when the prices were stalling &
Intraday traders would take that as a cue for strength and go long OR above 4871-34 Hr sma.
Closing below HEma confirms a overbought market. You could also find the "deviation away from a median av
Bollinger band of various time frames are a very good indicator of overbought and oversold zones.
Add "Bollinger band-10 period" to the intra chart of "Google finance", you get very good supports and resistan
Useful to "partbook", "re-enter" & "hold".
If the -ve div is at the start of a major reversal, following the above guideline, one may miss out on a major dec
Reading OI during market has its own drawbacks due to changes made at EOD and could be misleading.
However, if the changes in OI supports a technical study or any other study, it adds strength to the conclusions.
OI changes with volume changes would be more credible.
I consider:
Rise in OI with rise in prices - Bullish
Fall in OI with rise in prices - Bullish
Fall in OI with fall in prices - Bearish
Rise in OI with fall in prices - Bearish
Most of market's price action is highly speculative in nature and "bulk of this speculation" happens in futures m
bears. A thorough knowledge of this helps you take a "Positional trades" which would bring in riches with less
OI study along with Technical view or our Tech.Table or anyother study which has been followed by you will bring
Price that does not reverse from "overbought zone" in quick time suggests that a trending move is on. The sug
Correction if any would be most likely to 21 hr sma/ Day pivot-4945-70 zone. Anything beyond that would be a
Intraday trading is mostly based on previous day's technicals and hence the "first session plays out mostly as per
Later part is mostly "guess work" which generally takes away your winnings of the 1st session if not handled prop
Sofar, the day is progressing as a "Trending day". Weakness would be visible when prev. hour low or prev. 2 hour
Keep catching your "Jack rabbits" whenever they present themselves infront of you..(Make those good trades)
If a huge consolidation has taken place and market is breaking out, be open minded about accepting the rising pr
You learn a lot about a market only "during its corrective stage". And having learnt it, you take a calculated risk
One need to wait patiently for such set ups.
For simplicity, we use the following to identify a "trending market" & and a "Rangebound market".
Trending: When the prices close and stay above HEma during upmove and When the prices close and stay below
Sideways/ Rangebound: When the prices close between HEma and LEmas and stay within a band of HEma+20 to
If the correction is of a "running kind"(instead of making minor lower high & lower low, it could continue to make
If it is "3rd wave", hour -ve div would not have much damage on the prices.
Most of the money in stock market gets changed hands during "b" waves.
5017+ rise is a "b" wave.
And if you are making money in such a situation means "You are on the right track".
Safe way to handle it would be to "extract resistances & supports from TT" and enter only at support & resistance
Presently DEma to DHEma+20 if 5033/5023 holds.
a "Flat" could retrace fully and an "irregular flat" could go higher… '
If you miss a trade, be patient for a correction to emerge for making the trade.
When you make a trade entry, be patient enough to allow time for the trade to develop and generate the profi
Big money in trading is made from the few large trades made. You must get into "being in patient mode" to sta
trades.
Small & quick losses the best ones. Be impatient enough to exit such trades in quicker time. Remember, a losin
away from it.
Remember our proverb: Get Rich Slowly and Quietly.
Intraday Trades are best done based on "Supports & resistances". That way risk to reward becomes favourable
Needless to compare, JNSAR would bring in risk-free returns steadily.
When you see your "resistance" number flashing on screen, you are looking for confirmations instead of acting
Confirmation comes after the fall.
Read......."Supports and Resistances" if you want to excel as a trader:
Negative divergences with prices closing below 5-period sma/ ema is a reliable "exhaustion signal" in uptrend. An
Keep an eye on Tata steel as it tends to show strength & weakness of market often. Presently it is trending up qui
5 period lead indicator is @ 90+. For a weekly T/F, it is good. Having 14 period along with 5 period makes you tak
Premium & discount may be considered only when they concur with technical analysis.
Premium & discount changes for various reasons.
Similarly the Pre-Market price action should be ignored.
Best trades are done for "Intraday" is to "sell on rises" when major intraday averages like 21 hr sma(5245 now) &
Similarly, when ever these averages turn up, you do the reverse.
Your trades are valid as long as week trend remains "UP". But for short term traders, daily trend is down presentl
Today is another classic day of "Global cues being used for sell on rises as our market's short term trend is down"
How to differentiate...?
By understanding how much "oversold" the index is..?
On Friday, the Day lead indicator was on the "way down towards 20 mark".
On Monday, the Day lead indicator has reached below 20 mark. But not confirmed a reversal.
Hence, For Monday's trading, it was more favourable compared to Today.
However, today too prices have shown their inability to move past 21 hr sma(5236) as it did yesterday(5248).
Till prices confirm the min. req, it should be taken as "weakness continuing" as well as a possibility of a reversal f
To understand this decreasing spreads and frequent narrow ranges, look at the bigger picture:
Nifty fell from 6339 to 4531 in 14 months.
"Corrective rise" started from 4531.
A:It moved up from 4531 to 5630 in just 3 months.
B.It moved down from 5630 to 4770 in 4 months.
C.It moved up from 4770 to 5349 in 6 weeks and the termination of this uptrend would be confirmed today.
There is a narrowing of rise/ fall/ rise suggesting either a complex corrective rise continuing or corrective rise ma