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Jacek Mańdziuk
Warsaw University of Technology
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i =0
and the correlation ratio between predicted and real
changes:
N (6)
t −1 t −1
t
∑ ( Ri
t
− Ri )( Pi − Ri )
δ = i =0
,
N
t −1 2 t −1 2
∑ (R i
t
− R ) ( Pi − R )
i
t
i
i =0
6. CONCLUSIONS
An approach to the weather forecasting problem based on
artificial neural networks is presented. Obtained results -
with an average error of 5.72% (1.12°C) and high
correlation between predicted and real changes - are very
encouraging and provide a promise for further exploration
of the issue, e.g. by applying more sophisticated learning
algorithms like the variable metric method or combining
our approach with expert systems. One of the important
conclusions of this piece of research is problematic
applicability of the PCA method as a supporting tool for
data pre-processing in the problem considered. This issue
Fig. 7. Values of weights from the input layer to the deserves further investigation, however an ad-hoc
second principal component PC 02 in the principal explanation may be a very high complexity and correlation
components layer. The meaning of input neurons is of meteorological data which prevents dimensionality
described in the caption of Fig. 5. reduction and efficient orthogonalisation. Closer look at
the principal components defined by the PCA method
At last in case of the third principal component strong confirms the above suggestion. Our current research is
regularities in the correlation scheme between this devoted to deeper and more precise analysis of the reasons
component and particular input variables can be observed of the PCA failure.
(see Fig. 8). The most important contributions to this
component come from the number of the month (second 7. REFERENCES
input) and the wind direction (variables number 6, 11 and [1] D. Silverman, J. Dracup, Artificial Neural Networks
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Fig. 8. Values of weights from the input layer to the third Neural Networks, 7(1): 113-127, 1994.
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