ECONOMIC INDICATORS REPORT

August 2019
Review & Analysis by Yadnya

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 1. Growth Indicators
Key Topics - GDP Growth %
- Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
- Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
- Market Cap to GDP Ratio

2. Monetary Indicators
- Inflation : CPI & WPI
- RBI Policy Rates
- 10-Year G-Sec Yield & Overnight MIBOR Rate

3. Deficit
- Deficit as % of GDP
- Current Account Deficit as % of GDP
- Crude Oil & Gold Imports

4. Foreign Investment
- Foreign Exchange Reserves
- FDI
- FPI/FII

5. Banking Health
- Bank Credit & Deposit
- Banks GNPA
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Key Highlights
Global Economic growth is expected to slowdown in 2019 at a growth rate 3.3% and is projected to be at 3.6% for 2020.
1 While Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2019 and is projected to
pick up at 4.8% in 2020

India’s GDP growth has also slowed to five-year low of 6.8% in FY2018-19. As declared on 30th August, for April-June
2 Quarter FY2019-20, India’s GDP growth falls to 5% the weakest in 6-years from 5.8% in March Quarter.

Indian economy is going through an economic slowdown with a consistent fall in GDP Growth for 5-successive quarters.
3 This dampened GDP growth is mainly due to lower growth in private consumption, subdued demand and weak
investment growth.

Overall Economy health can be improved with the introduction of more Industry friendly and welcoming FDI policies by
4 the government. Considerable rate cut measures are needed by RBI to boost the subdued private consumption and
demand. Good things are low inflations, low interest rates, controlled Fiscal Deficit & CAD, increasing Forex Reserves. Even
banking health is improving with increasing Deposit & Credit rate and decreasing NPAs.

Most of the analyst and experts are of opinion that we have seen the bottom in Indian market and much higher
5 growths are expected in coming years given crude prices remain low and global political climate remains stable.

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Growth Indicators
1. GDP
2. IIP
3. PMI
4. Market Cap to GDP Ratio

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GDP Growth%
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of India in the year 2018-19 is
estimated at Rs.140.78 Lakh Crore with a growth rate of 6.8% GDP Growth Rate (%)
9.0%
- Thus, GDP growth has seen at a 5-year low of 6.8% which is 8.0% 8.2%
8.0%
0.4% lower than that in 2017-18 and 1.4% lower than 2016-17 7.4% 7.2%
7.0% 6.8% 6.9% E
6.4%
- Growth slowdown was mainly due to : Weakness in
Consumption Demand, Depressed Private Investment Activity, 6.0% 5.5%
and overall global slowdown 5.0%

- High NPAs and Liquidity issue after NBFC crisis in Q2 : 2018-19 4.0%
has adversely impacted Private Consumption and Bank lending 3.0%

- Economic growth during 2018-19 is supported by Exports and 2.0%

Higher Government Spending on Infrastructure Activities
1.0%

- Real GDP is revised downwards by RBI from 7.0% in June policy 0.0%
review to 6.9% in August Bi-monthly MPC meet for FY2019-20 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

- Latest Quarter (ending June) GDP fell to only 5%

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 IIP Growth%
- In line with GDP, Industrial Output (measured by IIP) is lowest in last 3 years. It has grown by 3.6% in 2018-19. It is lower than 4.4% growth of 2017-18
- Latest month (June) IIP numbers show a growth of only 2% which shows subdued growth since Nov 2018
- The slowdown in industrial output can be caused by the restraint in manufacturing growth (to 3.6% in 2018-19 v/s 4.6% in 2017-18) & major reason is
slowdown in capital goods industry
- Industrial output could be boosted mainly by higher government led infrastructure activity plus lower interest rates
- In Budget 2019-20, Finance Minister has proposed a lot of infrastructure development activities (like Roads, Railways, Metros, Electric Vehicle Charging
Stations etc.) by Public-Private partnership(PPP)
- Industrial Output is expected to be subdued due to lack of liquidity & slowing consumption
20%
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) %
12.4%
15%
5.0% 4.6% 4.4%
4.0% 3.6% 10%

%AGE GROWTH
4.0% 3.3% 3.3%
5% 2.0%

3.0% 0% 0.0%

2.0% -5%
-6.5%
-10%
1.0%
-15% IIP Primary Goods
0.0% Capital Goods Intermediate Goods
2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Infrastructure

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Manufacturing PMI
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) - PMI index shows expansion or slowdown in
54.3 manufacturing activity compared with previous month.
54.5 It is clearly correlating with IIP & GDP numbers.
54 53.9
54
- Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for India’s
53.5 53.1 manufacturing sector for the month of August-2019
53.1 53.2
52.4 52.7 was slipped to a 15-month low of 51.4 from 52.5 in
53
52.6 52.5 July-2019.
52.1
52.5 52.3 52.1
52.2
51.6 - PMI for August-2019 is lowest since May-2018 and
52 51.8
51.2 51.7 below its long-run average of 53.9. However, it
51 51.4
51.5 remained above the 50-point mark that separates
expansion from contraction.
51

50.5 - India’s Manufacturing activity in August is deteriorated

due to the slowdown in investment and consumer
50 demand.
49.5
- Worrying sign was the first drop in input buying for 15
49 months. New orders, Manufacturing output grew at
MAY-18

MAY-19
JAN-18

SEP-18

JAN-19

JUN-19
JUN-18
FEB-18

AUG-18

FEB-19

AUG-19
MAR-18

NOV-18
DEC-18

MAR-19
APR-18

APR-19
JUL-18

OCT-18

JUL-19
the slowest in a year, while the employment growth
remained marginal despite output expansion.

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Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio
Market Cap to GDP Ratio BSE Sensex - Market Cap to GDP Ratio, also popularly known as the
‘Buffett Indicator’ is used to assess the valuations of the
160 40,000 stock markets of a country.
149 37,145.45

140 35,000 - It is expressed as country’s Total Market capitalization (value

of all listed companies in a country) as % of Nominal GDP.
120 30,000 The ratio tells whether the country’s stock market is
overvalued or undervalued, compared to its historical
99 98 average.
100 92 25,000
88

75
78
75
- The ratio is a backward-looking indicator comprising
80 72 20,000
69 71
67 historical data. The historical average of India’s Market Cap
64 65
61 to GDP ratio is around 75%.
60 56 56 15,000
50
45 - In current Equity market outlook for FY19-20, India’s Market
40 10,000 Cap to GDP ratio is at 67%, became progressively affordable
in terms of valuation from FY17-18. Some of the good
20 5,000 stocks have corrected almost 15-20%.

0 0 - Currently, it is attractive to increase equity allocation. One

should gradually look to build exposure. You can invest
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20

through index or the blue chips. So depending upon the risk

appetite, opportunities are opening up in equity market.
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Monetary Indicators
1. Inflation
2. RBI Policy Rates
3. 10 YR G-Sec & MIBOR Yields

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CPI & WPI Inflation
CPI Inflation %
10.00%
WPI % Change YoY
8.60% 8.00%
9.00%
7.39%
8.00%
6.07% 6.00% 5.19% 4.95%
5.51%
7.00% 5.54%
7.88% 5.40% 5.21%
6.00% 4.92% 4.00% 4.02%
2.10% 2.76%
5.00% 3.89% 2.00%
4.00% 4.83% 3.15% 0.87% 0.90% 1.08%
3.00% 4.28% 0.00%
3.69% 3.17%

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Apr-18
Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Oct-18

Apr-19
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19
2.00%
3.27% 2.57% -2.00%
1.00%
1.46% 1.97%
0.00% -4.00% -3.85%
Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19
Apr-14

Oct-14

Apr-15

Oct-15

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18

Apr-19
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Jul-19
-6.00%
-6.14%
-8.00%

- Domestic inflation has declined during 2018-19

- Retail inflation (CPI) has come down to 3.4% in 2018-19 from 3.6% in 2017-18, due to decline in food & housing inflation
- WPI based inflation has reached to 5-year high of 4.3% in 2018-19 against 2.9% in 2017-18 due to high prices of fuel and power
- Upside inflation risk exists on account of uncertainty in the monsoon's patterns and global crude oil price movement
- Inflation is likely to remain around RBI target inflation level. RBI’s CPI inflation target is 4% with +/- 2%
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 CPI Sub-groups Indices
Change since Last
April 19 May 19 June 18 June 19 July 19 % Y-o-Y
month

Food & Beverages 139.4 140.9 139.5 142.7 144.7 2.33%

Clothing & Footwear 146.9 147.3 145.3 147.4 148.0 1.65%

Housing 149.7 150.1 142.5 149.4 150.6 4.67%

Fuel & Light 140.0 140.3 138 141.2 139.2 -0.36%

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RBI Policy Rates
Apr’19 June’19 Aug’19 Change
• The Monetary Policy Committee has reduced
Repo Rate 6 5.75 5.40 the repo rate by 35 bps from 5.75% to 5.40% in
Bi-monthly meet held in August-2019
Reverse Repo Rate 5.75 5.50 5.15

Bank Rate 6.25 6 5.65 • Monetary Policy stance is maintained to

“Accommodative”
Cash Reserve Ratio 4 4 4
• Further rate cut is expected in coming meet.
Statutory Liquidity Ratio 19.00 18.75 18.75

- A Repo rate cut and Accommodate stance taken by RBI was to give an impulse to the weakened growth, by supporting efforts
to boost aggregate demand and reenergize private investment activity

- Decreasing rate cut is supported by low inflation and therefore RBI has the head space for reducing the interest rates to spur
the growth esp. small & medium sector

- We expect more rate cut in the coming month since inflation is still low and growth is still struggling.

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10-Year G-Sec Yield & Overnight MIBOR Rate
- As expected, decreasing interest rates is consistently decreasing the MIBOR rates as well 10-year G-Sec yield.
- Current Yields are among the lowest since demonetization. Yields came very low after demonetization due to excess liquidity in the banking system
- Even though G-Sec are decreasing, corporate bond yields have not seen the similar downfall due to NBFC crisis and high NPAs in banking sector.
- We expect yields to decrease further in coming months esp. due to market expectation of further repo rate fall

10-Year G-Sec Monthly Yield (%) Overnight MIBOR Rate(%)

8.5 7
6.8 6.73
7.98 8.02
6.6 6.60 6.50
8
7.64 6.4 6.45 6.55
7.44 6.20
7.75 7.42 6.2 6.35
7.5 6.25
YIELD %

6 5.97
7.35 6.00
7 6.88 5.8 5.75
6.55 5.6 5.45
6.5 5.4
5.2
6.37
6 5
Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19

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Deficit
1. Fiscal Deficit
2. Current Account Deficit
3. Gold & Oil Imports

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Fiscal Deficit
Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP - In Budget 2019, Finance Minister has revised Fiscal
6.5% deficit target to 3.3% from an earlier 3.4% of GDP for
7.0% 5.9% FY2019-20
- This target seems unreal esp. with slowing growth and
6.0% 4.9%
4.8% increasing government spending on infrastructure.
4.5%
4.1% Government has set ambitious disinvestment targets and
5.0% 3.9%
3.5%
increasing tax revenue targets to keep the deficit in
3.5%
4.0% 3.4% check
3.3%
- As per the Budget proposal, although the government
3.0%
will generate higher revenues from the surcharge on
individuals with taxable income, it will also lose revenues
2.0% due to changes in the corporate tax structure
- Thus, delivering on fiscal consolidation and raising
1.0% incomes will be extremely challenging for India, since
growth is likely to remain weak over the coming year
0.0% - A big dividend given by RBI recently to Government will
give some head space to government to maintain fiscal
prudence

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Current Account Deficit
- For the first 9 months of FY2018-19 (Apr-Dec), the
Current Account Deficit as % of GDP
4.8%
Current Account Deficit (CAD) has widened to 2.6% of
5.0% the GDP, as against 1.8% of GDP in the Apr-Dec in
4.3%
FY2017-18
4.5%

4.0% - CAD was pressured mainly due to higher crude prices

and rupee depreciation
3.5%
- CAD is expected to be in similar range in 2019-20 too
3.0%
2.2% E
owing to Trade War and expected relatively low crude oil
2.5% prices
2.1%
1.7%
1.8%
2.0% - On account of the uncertainty in global trade, slowdown
1.3% in global economic momentum and the rising crude oil
1.5% 1.1% price movement, the pressure on the trade front will
1.0% 0.7%
continue to remain in coming year

0.5% - Next slide shows how our Crude oil imports are
increasing whereas Gold imports are range bound for last
0.0% 3 years
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

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Crude Oil & Gold Imports
Crude Oil Import Monthly (in Mn US$) Gold Import Monthly (in Mn US$)
14000 6000
12000
9032 5000
10000 3,759.6
4000
8000
3000
6000
4000 2000

2000 1000
0 0
Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19
Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19
Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18
Dec-16
Feb-17

Dec-17
Feb-18

Dec-18
Feb-19

Apr-16

Oct-16

Apr-17

Oct-17

Apr-18

Oct-18

Apr-19
Jun-16
Aug-16

Jun-17
Aug-17

Jun-18
Aug-18

Jun-19
Dec-17
Dec-16
Feb-17

Feb-18

Dec-18
Feb-19
Crude Oil Import Y-o-Y (in Mn US$) Gold Import Y-o-Y (in Mn US$)
120000 111955 40000
35000 33657 32897
87803 31771
100000
30000 27518
80000 63972 70196
25000
60000 20000
36311
15000 11,448
40000
10000
20000
5000
0 0
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20

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Foreign Investments
1. Foreign Exchange Reserves
2. FDI
3. FPI & FII

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Foreign Exchange Reserve
- Foreign exchange reserves are denominated and expressed
in US dollar terms
- Forex reserves stood at USD 400.53 billion as at end-Sept-18. Trend of Forex Reserves
Thereafter, reserves declined to USD 392.08 billion as at end- 440 3%
2.61%
Oct-18, and thereafter registered an increasing trend 428
430
430 2%
reaching USD 426 billion as at end of June-19. 1.83%
1.16% 420
- Forex reserves comprised of FCA(Foreign current asset) – 420

MONTHLY GROWTH
413 414 1%

IN USD BILLION
largest component, Gold reserves, SDR & reserve position in 0.42%
410 0.46%
IMF 0.48%
402 0.31% 0%
401 400
- This increasing trend is majorly due to strengthening of 400 396
392 394
rupee in last few quarters, decreasing Crude prices and -1%
390
currency swaps
380 -2.11% -2%
- Forex Reserves helps in meeting country’s external financial
obligations. It is a big confidence booster for foreign
370 -3%
investors.
- India's foreign exchange reserve touched a life-time high of
USD 429.64 billion in July 2019. Forex Reserve % Growth

- This rise in reserves was on account of increase in foreign

currency asset, which is a major component of the overall
foreign exchange reserves.
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 FDI Inflows
FDI Inflows (in US$ Million) - Foreign investment in the form of FDI has seen a marginal
9,000 decline during first 9 months of 2018-19 compared with
8,004 2017- 18. At $33.5 bn during Apr’18-Dec’18, it was 7%
8,000
lower than the inflows worth $35.9 bn in Apr’17-Dec’17.
7001
7,000 - Domestic and global concerns limited the FDI inflows.
6,195
Election led uncertainty on the domestic front and global
6,000 5,348 5306 headwinds such as slowdown in global economy, trade war
4,819 uncertainties, concerns over Brexit negotiations and other
5,000
4,698
3,976 geopolitical tensions led to lower FDIs into Indian economy
4,000 in the first 9 months of 2018-19
3,362

3,000 - Net FDI inflows increased to more-than-double to $7 billion

3034
in June 2019 from $3 billion in May 2019.
2,000 1,983 2,418 2,508
2,115
1,739 - In Union Budget 2019, Indian government has supported
1,210
1,000 FDIs by introducing various FDI welcoming norms like 100%
FDI in insurance, Entry of FDI in Aviation, Media industry
-
and recent cabinet decision to increase FDI limit in Single
Jun-16

Oct-16

Jun-17

Oct-17

Jun-18

Oct-18

Jun-19
Apr-16

Aug-16

Dec-16

Apr-17

Aug-17

Dec-17

Apr-18

Aug-18

Dec-18

Apr-19
Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

brand retail, coal mining & contract manufacturing

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FDI Inflows
Country-wise & Sector-wise

Share Of Top Investing Countries in FDI Equity Inflows Share Of Top Sectors in FDI Equity Inflows
% To Total Inflows (In US$) % To Total Inflows (In US$) Services Sector
(April 2000 - March 2019)
Computer Software &
1.6% 1.6% Hardware
Mauritius 2.3% 3%
4%
2.8% Telecommunication
Singapore
4%
Japan Construction
Netherlands 6.1% 18% Development
Trading
UK 4%
32.0%
USA 6.4%
Automobile Industry
Germany 5%
Cyprus 6.5% Chemicals (other than
fertilizers)
UAE 9%
5% Drugs & Pharmaceutical
France 7.2%
6% Construction
8% (Infrastructure)
19.8%

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FPI & FII
- Foreign portfolio investors were net sellers during 2018-19 as opposed to FPI & FII Investment (INR Cr)
being net buyers in the previous year. The net FPI outflows during 2018-19 60000
were $5.5 bn compared with net FPI inflows of $21.5 Bn in 2017-18 48751
50000
- First 7 months of the FY2018-19 saw heavy selling by FPI & FII due to
depreciation in the rupee, widening CAD, tight global liquidity and 40000
monetary policy tightening of major central banks 27241
30000 16728
22272
- March-May 2019 was a huge inflow period of FII & FPIs on expectation of
20000 22758
stable NDA government in the center 11595 13,111
10000
- FPIs pulled out net sum of Rs. 12,436 Cr from Indian Equity and Hybrid 2662
segment in July 2019 but invested in Rs.9,433 Cr in Debt segment, taking 0
the total net outflow to Rs.3,003 Cr.

Apr-17

Apr-18

Apr-19
Aug-17

Feb-18

Aug-18

Feb-19
Dec-17

Dec-18
Jun-17

Oct-17

Jun-18

Oct-18

Jun-19
-10000
- Since the announcement of Super-Rich tax in the Union Budget declared
-20000 -3003
on 5th July, FPIs have been selling in equity segment. Increase in surcharge
on income-tax hit FPIs hard, leading to a steep selloff in the Indian -30000
-29776
equities.
-40000 -38906
- But, the main reason for the selling is the sharp slowdown in the economy
-50000
particularly in segments like autos. Besides, the Q1 FY20 results from
corporates have not been reassuring. Thus, slowing domestic growth,
muted earnings season and weak rupee also added to the concerns of FPI.

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Banking Health
1. Deposit & Credit Growth
2. GNPA

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Bank Deposit Growth & Credit Growth

- Bank Deposit & Credit Growth is moving upward Bank's Deposit Growth & Credit Growth
18.0%
16.2%
- As the bank’s are passing the benefit of reducing
16.0%
interest rates to consumers, banks’ credit growth is 13.5%
expected to rise even further. Credit growth is 14.0%
expected to be around 14% in upcoming in FY as 11.9%
12.0% 10.8%
compared to only 8% in last FY 10.9%
10.0% 10.4%
11.1%
- Deposit growth is increasing in past few months due 8.0%
to problems in debt market – defaults of IL&FS, Zee 6.8%
6.0%
and DHFL. Due to these, investors are moving
towards more stable Bank’s deposits 4.0%

2.0%
- Bank’s are delaying transmission of low interest
rates which is keeping their deposit rates still higher 0.0%
Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19
than ongoing yields which may be short lived
Deposit Growth Credit Growth

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Gross NPA of Banks%
- As per Financial Stability Report (FSR) by RBI, Macro
stress test for banks are stated under the baseline Gross NPAs of Banks
scenario by RBI 18

- Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) may fall to 9% by 16

12.6
March 2020 from 9.3% in March 2019 14
12E
- Public-sector banks’ (PSBs) GNPA ratio may decline to 12
12% by March 2020 from 12.6% in March 2019 9.3
10

Percent %
9E
- For private banks may decline to 3.2% in March 2020 8
from 3.7% in March 2019
6
3.7
- Y-o-Y growth in GNPAs is decelerated across all bank 4 3.2E
3
2.6E
groups.
2
- Key Drivers are : Improvement in banks’
0
Recapitalisation, Provision coverage and Capital PSBs PVBs FBs All SCBs
adequacy, and Efforts to improve balance sheets of
banks etc. Mar-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Mar-20

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