Implementation review of the First Perspective Plan

2010-2021
In 2009 soon after assuming power, the government led by Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina recognised that the development challenges for
the country were many and progress would require a long-term vision
and a systematic approach to development. Accordingly, the
government adopted the Vision 2021 that sought to convert Bangladesh
from a low-income economy to a middle income economy within the next
10-12 years. It also envisioned a Bangladesh in 2021 that would be
substantially free of poverty, where people will be empowered with
good health, education and skills that are necessary for securing high-
income employment, where economic and social justice will prevail, and
where the sustainability of development will be ensured by reducing
vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change.
Words Meanings: after assuming power—ÿgZvq Avmvi c‡i, recognised
that—¯^xK…wZ †`q †h, require a long-term vision—`xN©‡gqvw` wfkb `iKvi,
systematic approach—c×wZMZ c`‡ÿc, sought to convert—cwieZ©b Ki‡Z
†P‡q‡Q, It also envisioned—GLv‡b cwiKíbv Kiv nq, Avkv Kiv nq,
substantially—D‡jøL‡hvvM¨ AvKv‡i, free of poverty—`vwi`ªgy³, prevail—
we`¨gvb _vKv, vulnerability to—AvµvšÍZv, ÿwZMÖ¯Í nIqvi Avk•ÿv|
To convert Vision 2021 into reality, the government developed and
adopted a 10-year Perspective Plan 2010-2021 (PP2021) that articulated
long-term development goals with a range of quantitative and
qualitative targets consistent with Vision 2021. The Perspective Plan
(PP) 2021 was sought to be implemented through two 5-year
development plans: the Sixth Five Year Plan (6th FYP) running from
FY2011 to FY15, and the Seventh Five Year Plan (7th FYP) encompassing
FY16-FY20. Each of these plans was to be developed with detailed
development targets, financing plan, and policies and institutional
reforms. Both plans also incorporated a Development Results
Framework (DRF).
The objective of this Mid-Way Review is to provide a broad assessment
of the progress made during the first half of the PP2021, which
corresponds to the completion of the 6th FYP. The DRF of the 6th FYP
provides a solid reference point for many of the development objectives
and targets for the mid-term review of PP2021. The conclusion of the
assessment is that considerable successes have been achieved in
accelerating growth, improving human development, reducing poverty
and laying the foundations for securing upper middle income status
in the coming years along the lines envisioned under PP2021. However,
there are several areas where stronger progress is needed, especially in
mobilising revenues, accelerating private investment, improving
governance, establishing strong public institutions and ensuring
sustainable development.
Words Meanings: To convert Vision 2021 into reality—wfkb 2021 †K
ev¯ÍeZvq iƒcvšÍi Ki‡Z, articulated—†NvlYv K‡iwQj, with a range of
quantitative and qualitative targets—cwigvYMZ I ¸YMZ jÿgvÎvi g‡a¨,
consistent with—mvgÄm¨c~Y,© incorporated—Pvjy K‡iwQj, a broad
assessment—cÖk¯Í g~j¨vqb, considerable successes—†ekwKQz mdjZv, ¸iæZ¡c~Y©
mdjZv, accelerating growth—Z¡ivwš^Z cÖe„w×, laying the foundations—wfwË
¯’vcb Ki‡Q, securing upper middle income status—D”P g‡a¨ Av‡qi †`‡ki
gh©v`vq myiÿv †`q, in the coming years—Avmbœ eQi¸‡jv‡Z, accelerating—
Z¡ivwš^Z Ki‡Q, mobilising—MwZkxj K‡i, Pvjbv K‡i|
PROGRESS IN MACRO-ECONOMY: At the macroeconomic level, the
foremost objective of the PP2021 is to secure middle-income status for
Bangladesh by FY2021. Results show that Bangladesh crossed the
threshold of lower middle income as defined by the World Bank in 2015.
This is a remarkable progress that was achieved by accelerating the GDP
growth rate to the 7 per cent range by FY2015 and exceeding 7 per cent
during FY2016-18. The average GDP growth was 6.3 per cent in the first
half of PP2021 (FY11-15), which was slower than the planned 7.3 per cent
average growth rate but constitutes an excellent performance by
international standards and with reference to Bangladesh's long-term
historical growth performance. The average GDP growth accelerated to
7.3 per cent during FY2016-18. The growth effort was fueled by the
manufacturing sector and services. Consequently, the GDP share of
manufacturing increased and that of agriculture fell. As a result, there was
a steady transformation of the production structure as Bangladesh moved
away from a primarily agrarian and rural-based economy towards a
manufacturing and modern services based economy.
Words Meanings: macroeconomic—mvgwóK A_©‰bwZK, crossed the
threshold—gvb`Ð/mxgv AwZµg K‡i‡Q, as defined by—†hgbwU ewY©Z nq,
constitutes—MVb K‡i, fueled by—Z¡ivwš^Z nq, Consequently—djµ‡g, d‡j,
moved away from—m‡i G‡m‡Q, agrarian and rural-based economy—K…wl I
MÖvg¨wfwËK A_©bxwZ|
The commendable growth performance of the manufacturing sector (9.9
per cent per year) was ably supported by a surge in manufacturing
exports, primarily from the readymade garments sector. Manufacturing
exports grew by an amazing 13.6 per cent during FY2010-15. The rapid
growth in exports along with expansion in remittances (growing by an
average of 6.6 per cent over the period) led to a strong balance of
payments position and supported acceleration in foreign reserves from
$10.7 billion in FY2010 (5 months of import cover) to $33 billion in June
FY2017 (8.3 months of import cover). The comfortable balance of
payments situation allowed foreign borrowing and debt service to be kept
at a modest level. Along with external stability, Bangladesh also achieved
domestic macroeconomic stability by keeping fiscal deficits and
monetary expansion at prudent levels. Inflation rate briefly
accelerated to double digits in FY2010-12 but soon stabilised and fell
to 6.8 per cent during FY2012-15. Inflation rate came down further
during FY2016-17 to 5.7 per cent.
The stability of the macroeconomy has been a hallmark of
macroeconomic management during the first half of the PP2021. This
stability has been preserved over the past three years FY2016-18, but
there are some worrisome signs of fragility in the banking sector since
2016 that has to be carefully watched. Also, while fiscal deficit is under
control, the tax to GDP ratio is stagnant that could create financing
problems for the budget in the coming years. On the export front, two
major concerns are: heavy dependence on RMG and slowdown in the
growth of exports during FY2016-18. A major reason for this is the heavy
bias against exports due to trade protection. Additionally, the sharp
appreciation of the real effective exchange rate has hurt exports. The
government will need to address the export diversification challenge
through reforms in trade policy and better exchange rate management.
Words Meanings: an amazing 13.6 per—we¯§qKi 13.6 kZvsk, keeping
fiscal deficits and monetary expansion at prudent levels—ivR¯^ NvUwZ Ges
A_©Qov‡bv mZK©/mveav‡b †i‡L, accelerated to double digits—`yB A‡¼i N‡U
†e‡o‡Q, soon stabilised—kxNªB w¯’wZkxj n‡q‡Q, came down further—Av‡iv
K‡g wM‡q‡Q, a hallmark of—‰ewkó¨, Qvc, jÿY, preserved over the past three
years—MZ wZb eQi a‡i iwÿZ i‡q‡Q, worrisome signs of fragility—f½yiZvi
wKQz weiw³Ki `„k¨, under control—wbqš¿Yvax‡b, stagnant—w¯’wZkxj,
slowdown—n«vm, axiMwZ, gš’i, through reforms—ms¯‹v‡ii gva¨‡g|
A major driver of GDP growth is investment. PP2021 emphasised the
need to accelerate both public and private investment. Results so far
show progress in increasing public investment but a substantial
shortfall in the private investment. Some increases have happened in
foreign direct investment, but compared to the potential, Bangladesh is
way behind in attracting FDI. The major reason for sluggish domestic
private investment and FDI is the high cost of doing business. The need to
further improve the investment climate by reducing transaction costs
will be an important challenge in the second half of PP2021.
Words Meanings: emphasised—¸iæZ¡v‡ivc K‡i‡Q, accelerate—`ªæZ e„w×
Kiv, Z¡ivwš^Z Kiv, so far—G hver ch©šÍ, substantial shortfall—D‡jøL‡hvM¨
NvUwZ, compared to the potential—m¤¢vebvi Zzjbvq, in way behind—wcwQ‡q,
sluggish—gš’i, axi, further improve—Av‡iv AMÖMwZ Kiv|
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY: The Perspective Plan 2021
recognised that continued progress in agriculture and food security was
essential to support growing industrialisation and urbanisation. Farm
income and productivity growth are also essential to reduce rural
poverty. Despite a slowdown in the growth of the crop sector, average
agricultural GDP grew at 3.5 per cent per year which is a commendable
performance during the first half of PP2021. Some important progress
was made in diversification as shares of non-crop agriculture increased.
This progress was particularly strong for fisheries. Progress was also
made in strengthening food security and nutrition. The incidence of
hunger fell sharply, nutrition standards improved and food prices for
basic items such as grains and vegetables have fallen in real terms
improving affordability. Priorities for the future include: greater emphasis
on producing safe nutritious food, sustainable agriculture and
diversification, especially in the area of export-oriented farm production
(fruits, vegetables, flowers, fish, processed food, and tea); productivity
improvements in grain production including rice, wheat and maize;
further emphasis on nutritious food (meat, eggs, poultry, dairy
products); expansion of forest resources; and climate-resilient agriculture.
Words Meanings: essential to—Acwinvh©, Despite a slowdown—axiMwZ
m‡Ë¡I, commendable—cÖksmv‡hvM¨, fallen in real terms—cÖK…Z A‡_© K‡g‡Q,
wheat and maize—Mg I fzÆv, further emphasis on—Av‡iv †Rvi`vi K‡i,
climate-resilient agriculture—Rjevqy Dc‡hvMx K…wl|
DIGITAL BANGLADESH: P2021 recognised the importance of technology
and knowledge as major instruments of competitiveness and human
welfare. This found its place in the Digitisation Initiative of PP2021 led by
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Considerable progress was achieved since
the adoption of PP2021. Rural and remote areas of Bangladesh are now
connected through mobile phones and the internet and economic and
financial transactions are happening through digital technology at a rapid
pace and in low cost. The efficiency gain through the reduction in
transaction costs is immense. The prospects for further progress
including for expansion of ICT exports are large. While private investment
has taken the lead in ICT development, government policies, especially
through the deregulation of the telecommunications sector, have played
a major enabling role. This progress needs to be consolidated through a
reform of the incentive structure. ICT sector is heavily taxed, which is
inconsistent with the policy to encourage this sector and will need to be addressed.
Words Meanings: knowledge—Ávb, since the adoption of—MÖn‡Yi ci
†_‡K, at a rapid pace—`ªæZ MwZ‡Z, and in low cost—¯^í e¨‡q, immense—
wekvj, e¨vcK, through the deregulation—AvBb wkw_jZvi gva¨‡g, be
consolidated—`„p Ki‡Z n‡e, inconsistent with—AmvgÄm¨c~Y|©
INFRASTRUCTURE AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT: PP2021 placed major
emphasis on quickly improving infrastructure and urbanisation services.
Substantial progress was achieved in the power sector in terms of both
installed capacity and the spread of electricity connection to the people.
Total generation capacity increased by an unprecedented 13.4 per cent
between FY2010-18. Commensurately, access to electricity surged from
only 48 per cent in FY2010 to 72 per cent in FY2018. Private investment
in power surged and power trade with India has commenced. The
efficiency of the power sector has also increased with further reductions
in transmission and distribution losses and improvements in billing and
collections. However, diversification of primary energy sources to coal,
LNG and renewable energy sources has lagged behind and the power
sector still depends on budget subsidy. In transport, major new
investments in roads, highways, and bridges are underway, although
completion rates are slower than expected. Railway and waterway
reforms remain low. Consequently, stronger efforts are needed to
improve the implementation capacity of roads, highways, and bridges
projects and to accelerate reforms in railways and waterways.
Words Meanings: in terms of—†ÿ‡Î, an unprecedented—bRxiwenxb,
surged—†e‡o‡Q, commenced— ïiæ n‡q‡Q, lagged behind—wcwQ‡q c‡o‡Q,
budget subsidy—ev‡RU fZzwK©, underway—Pjgvb, Consequently—d‡j,
djkÖæwZ‡Z, accelerate reforms—ms¯‹vi Z¡ivwš^Z K‡i|
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL PROTECTION, AND POVERTY
REDUCTION: The PP2021 put a strong emphasis on reducing poverty,
improving human development and instituting a sound system of social
protection. This emphasis on equity and social justice is a hallmark of
PP2021. A review of progress shows considerable momentum was
gained. All human development indicators continued to improve under
the PP2021 including life expectancy, infant and maternal mortality,
total fertility rate, population growth rate, child nutrition, adult literacy,
and education enrollment and completion rates at all levels. Life
expectancy surged to an amazing 71.6 years in 2015, which is higher than
many countries with higher per capita income. However, there are two
areas where greater attention is needed. First, the quality of education,
and second, labour skills. The government adopted numerous schemes
in both areas in the 6th and 7th Five Year Plans, yet progress is below
what is needed to attain upper middle-income status. A particular
constraint is the continued low level of spending on education and
training. At 1.8 per cent of GDP, Bangladesh spends much less on
education and training from the budget than in upper-middle income
countries. This needs to go up to 3-4 per cent of GDP over the next few
years to provide a big push to the quality agenda.
Words Meanings: put a strong emphasis on—eo ¸iæZ¡v‡ivc K‡i, a
hallmark of—‰ewkó¨, jÿY, considerable momentum was gained—
D‡jøL‡hvM¨ kw³ AwR©Z n‡qwQj, including life expectancy—Mo Avqy mn, at all
levels—me ch©v‡q, surged to—`ªæZ ev‡o, adopted numerous schemes—
eûmsL¨vK w¯‹g MÖnY, attain upper middle-income status—D”P ga¨ Av‡qi
†`‡ki gh©v`v AR©b K‡i, go up—evov‡bv, a big push—eo av°v|
Progress on the poverty front has been solid. Both moderate and extreme
poverty rate fell considerably. In particular, moderate poverty fell from
31.5 per cent in FY2010 to 24.3 per cent in FY2016. The underlying
poverty strategy of PP2021 is broad-based with emphasis on rapid GDP
growth, employment, human development and social protection as key
elements of the poverty reduction strategy. As noted, progress with GDP
growth has been substantial. The associated structural change, whereby
the GDP shares of industry and services have increased and that of
agriculture has fallen, created more jobs in industry and services where
productivity and incomes tend to be higher. Real wages economy-wide
and especially in agriculture increased. Along with greater employment in
higher income jobs and rising real wages, poverty reduction also
benefited from the inflow of massive amounts of foreign remittances.
These not only financed the direct consumption of poor families who
received remittances, collectively the massive volume of remittance
inflows supported the creation of considerable non-farm employment and
income opportunities in rural areas. The spread of micro-credits helped
lower poverty by facilitating asset creation for the poor and smoothing
their consumption pattern. Finally, social protection benefits also
supported poverty reduction, although major reforms are needed to
improve the effectiveness of social protection programmes.
Words Meanings: solid—wbf©i‡hvM¨, mylg, fvj gv‡bi, wbwðZ, fell
considerably—D‡jøL‡hvM¨nv‡i K‡g, The underlying poverty strategy—g~j
`vwi`ª¨ †KŠkj, As noted—†hgbwU DwjøwLZ, substantial—D‡jøL‡hvM¨, whereby—
hvi Øviv, tend to be higher—m¤¢veZ eo n‡e, benefited from—DcK…Z nq,
massive amounts—wekvj cwigvY, collectively—GK‡Î, facilitating—my‡hvM
w`‡q, smoothing—mgvb K‡i, evavgy³ K‡i|
Moving forward, a major challenge is to implement the National Social
Security Strategy (NSSS) that was adopted in 2015. Commensurately,
the allocation for social protection excluding civil service pensions must
be increased to at least 2 per cent of GDP by FY2020.
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: Owing to its deltaic geographical
formation and high population density, Bangladesh is highly vulnerable
to natural disasters and climate change. The PP2021 sought to initiate a
comprehensive long-term approach to address environmental
degradation and climate change through laws, regulations, policies, and
programmes. The PP2021 recognised that unless these constraints were
integrated properly with the development strategy, the sustainability of
development will be threatened. The implementation approach
consisted of laws, regulations, and the adoption of various programmes
to improve environmental protection and adapt to climate change.
Technical assistance and support from the development partners were
sought to help with the adaptation programmes. The review of progress
yields a mixed picture. Strategic thinking improved with the integration
of the sustainable development agenda in the national plans, especially
with the formulation of the long-term Bangladesh Delta Plan. Small-scale
adaptation programmes provided important examples of success at the
local level but needed to be scaled up.
Words Meanings: Moving forward—mvg‡b avegvb, adopted in—M„nxZ nq,
Commensurately—h‡_vchy³fv‡e, at least—Kgc‡ÿ, Owing to—Kvi‡Y,
highly vulnerable to natural disasters—cÖvK…wZK `y‡h©v‡M e¨vcKfv‡e AvµvšÍ, to
initiate a comprehensive long-term approach—mgwš^Z `xN©‡gqvw` c`‡ÿc Pvjy
Kiv, degradation—Aeg~j¨vqb, these constraints—GB mg¯Í mxgve×Zv,
integrated properly—fvjfv‡e mgwš^Z nq, threaten—ûgwK †`Iqv, consisted
of laws—AvBb Øviv MwVZ, Technical assistance—cÖhyw³MZ †mev, yields a
mixed picture—wgkÖ cÖwZ”Qwe dz‡U †Zv‡j, Small-scale adaptation
programmes—‡QvU AvKv‡i LvcLvIqv‡bv Kg©m~wP, be scaled up—evov‡bv `iKvi|
The implementation of the Delta Plan is of highest priority that will be a
game changer in terms of lowering the vulnerability of Bangladesh to
climate change and strengthening the sustainability of development.
GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTION: Attaining the milestones of Vision
2021 articulated under PP2021 critically depends on addressing key
governance challenges, namely, deficiencies in public administration
capacity, shortcomings in economic management, and troubling
malfeasance affecting performance across all segments of public
administration. The strategy for institutional development under PP2021
rests on four key pillars: strengthening the civil service, promoting
devolution to local governments, strengthening public-private
partnerships in public services, and reforming planning and budgetary
processes. A quick policy review of the 6th and 7th Plan, reveals that the
government did adopt strategies and policies that are better tuned to
meet contemporary challenges, so that it can effectively maintain the
progress envisioned in Vision 2021 document. The Plans took a focused
approach to develop strong institutions in order to substantially improve
performance in strategic areas that are central for achievement of overall
development goals. These critical areas for intervention include: public
administration capacity, judiciary, financial sector, and local government.
Words Meanings: Attaining the milestones of—gvBjdjK AR©b K‡i,
articulated—†NvwlZ, namely—h_v, shortcomings—NvUwZ, troubling
malfeasance—D‡ØMRbK A‰bwZK Kg©KvÐ, rests on four key pillars—PviwU g~j
¯Í‡¤¢i Dci cÖwZwôZ, are better tuned—mymgwš^Z, fvjfv‡e mw¾Z, envisioned
in—cwiKwíZ nq, substantially—D‡jøL‡hvM¨ nv‡i, intervention include—
n¯Í‡ÿ‡ci g‡a¨ i‡q‡Q|
Despite all efforts, institutional development is a painstakingly slow
process. Policy initiatives are underway in all these areas but a big push
is needed to strengthen the underlying institutions. The strengthening
of the financial sector is an immediate priority and with a strong
political will, this can be achieved. Similarly, decentralisation should be
possible as the administrative arrangements in terms of elected local
governments are in place. These now need to be boosted and made more
effective through legally mandated responsibilities and accountabilities
and sharing of revenues based on a well-thought-out fiscal
decentralisation programme. Regarding governance, international
comparisons show that Bangladesh's performance improved in 4 of the 6
indicators used: reducing corruption, improving the rule of law,
improving the economic regulatory environment and improving political
stability and avoiding the threat of terrorism. Additionally, Bangladesh
also scored well on macroeconomic management. These are important
areas of progress that Bangladesh can build upon as it pushes ahead
with its journey to upper-middle-income status by 2030. The other two
areas, government effectiveness and voice and accountability, require
careful review and attention with additional efforts to improve
performance. Dr. Shamsul Alam is Member (Senior Secretary),
General Economics Division, Bangladesh Planning Commission and
is the coordinating lead author of "Perspective Plan of Bangladesh
2010-2021: August 27, 2019. From The Financial Express.
Words Meanings: Despite all efforts—mg¯Í cÖ‡Póv m‡Ë¡I, a painstakingly
slow process—KóKi axiMwZ cÖwµqv, a big push—eo av°v, strengthen—`„p
Kiv, the underlying institutions—g~j cÖwZôvb¸‡jv‡K, with a strong political
will—k³ ivR‰bwZK mw`”Qvq, be boosted—evov‡Z n‡e, legally mandated—
AvBbMZ wb‡`©wkZ, based on—wfwË K‡i, a well-thought-out—mywPwšÍZ, scored
well—fvj dj K‡i‡Q, pushes ahead with—`„pZvi mv‡_ mvg‡b GwM‡q hvq,
require careful review—mZK© g~j¨vqb `iKvi|

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