The Impact of Shale Gas Technology on Geopolitics

Dr. Daniel Fine of MIT discusses how new technology in extracting gas will impac
t geopolitics and the environment
Dr. Daniel Fine of the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute at MIT addressed
Fletcher students at a talk sponsored by the International Security Studies Prog
ram and offered his insights into how the development of new technology will all
ow the United States to tap vast, previously inaccessible, resources of natural
gas that will impact everything from the price of gasoline to the ability of Chi
nese companies to buy equity in Russian natural gas fields.
The United States has a monopoly on “hydro-fracing” technology. The technology, shor
t for hydraulic fracturing, releases natural gas trapped in shale deposits by in
jecting the deposits with high-pressure water mixed with sand and small amounts
of chemical additives.
According to Dr. Fine, the “cloud over gas” used to be “do we have enough gas?” In 2003,
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan declared that the United States did not
have enough natural gas, and that it would be necessary to import liquid natura
l gas (LNG). This, said Dr. Fine, was clearly a mistake in the light of the new
hydro-facing technology, not only because importing LNG poses a security risk to
the United States, but because tapping natural gas from shale represents an eco
nomic “bonanza” in “the most [economically] repressed parts of the country:” western New
York, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia, areas which suffer from high rate
s of unemployment, and are estimated to host 490 trillion cubic feet of natural
gas. The thousands of jobs that could be created in these areas could stand in t
he way of President Obama’s pursuit of subsidies for renewable energy.
Substitution away from imported gas by the United States will impact Russia, the
world’s largest exporter of natural gas, where gas production is controlled almos
t exclusively by government-run Gazprom. Moreover, Chevron has signed an agreeme
nt with Poland to search for and extract natural gas there, and similar arrangem
ents have apparently been made in Romania. “When Chevron announces that they have
gas [in Poland],” Dr. Fine said, “then Russia is shut out,” and will no longer be able
to act as a near-monopoly supplier of gas in Eastern Europe.
Seeing the threat to Russia’s interests, Dr. Fine suggested that Putin has de fact
o “joined the friends of the Earth,” claiming that hydro-facing will lead to problem
s with water supply. Beyond that, however, Dr. Fine pointed out that Gazprom has
recently acquired the largest gas field in Russia that was not already under it
s control, and that the location of this field, outside of Irkutsk, near the bor
der with China, gives a clear indication of the direction that Russian policy is
headed.
“China is moving towards a gas economy rapidly” to get away from the images and prob
lems associated of coal, said Dr. Fine. China is well aware that its reliance on
coal, and the emissions associated with it, not only present an environmental a
nd health threat to its own population, but that China is vulnerable to increasi
ng attacks from Western environmentalist groups as climate change becomes a more
prominent political issue. China does not have large gas deposits of its own, a
nd so, Dr Fine suggested, will want to take advantage of Russia’s weaker position
vis-à-vis Europe, to demand not only lower gas prices, but also the ability to pur
chase equity in Russian gas fields, something China has not yet been allowed to
do.
Returning to address some of the environmental concerns surrounding shale gas ex
traction, Dr. Fine said that, in light of the jobs that will be created , and in
light of the economic advantages of natural gas—which is cheaper than either coal
or nuclear power, and far less expensive than any current renewable technology—it
 will be politically difficult for any administration to challenge shale gas unl
ess it can be conclusively shown to have adverse environmental effects that outw
eigh the benefits. Shale gas wells, Dr. Fine said, are only used when an imperme
able rock layer surrounds them, so that none of the estimated 5.5 million gallon
s of water used for extraction can seep into the groundwater. In addition, most
wells can recycle their water, and ultimately, “use less water than an average gol
f course.”
Finally, Dr. Fine predicted that we are not, in fact, entering an era of “peak oil
,” that with the new production coming from the Iraqi oilfields, and with new natu
ral gas deposits replacing other petroleum fuels, we can expect to see a decline
in world oil prices. He predicted that on April 1, 2017 in Medford, Massachuset
ts, gasoline will cost barely over $1/gallon at the pump. Whether that predictio
n proves true or not, it certainly provides something to think about.
Elspeth Suthers, F11
http://fletcher.tufts.edu/news/2010/04/features/fine.shtml