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THE ENVIRONMENTS OF THE POOR IN THE CONTEXT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE GREEN ECONOMY: MAKING
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES INCLUSIVE
by: Prasert Sirinapaporn and Angkana Chalermpong
Thailand’s Office of Natural Resources and Environmental Policy and Planning

Background Paper for Conference on “The Environments of the Poor”,

24-26 Nov 2010, New Delhi

KEY ISSUES OF CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED ENVIRONMENTS OF THE POOR BY

GEOGRAPHICAL AND ECOLOGICAL AREA

A. FLOODS IN METRO BANGKOK

According to an analysis by the University of Tokyo, it is estimated that by 2050 the

local mean temperature in Bangkok will rise by 1.9°C and 1.2°C, while the mean
precipitation will increase by 3% and 2% corresponding respectively to the IPCC A1FI and
B1 climate scenarios. Impacts on the hydrology of the city will be further exacerbated by land
subsidence problem, which is estimated to vary spatially between 0.05-0.30 meters. In
addition, sea level in the Gulf of Thailand will increase by 0.29 and 0.19 meters under the
A1FI and B1 scenarios. This will affect storm surges, estimated at a maximum of 0.61
meters at the Chao Phraya River Mouth, and eventually will impact urban infrastructural
development in Metro Bangkok.

A comprehensive modeling of the future hydrology of the city has shown that flood-
prone area in metro Bangkok will expand, and an addition of 180 km2 of Bangkok and
Samutprakan (south of Bangkok) may be flooded under the A1FI scenario in 2050,
accounting for 30% increase of flood-prone area between 2008 and 2050, with 7% of the
land remaining flooded for over one month. While flood volume will increase by the same
percentage as precipitation, flood peak discharge in the Chao Phraya River will increase by
a higher percentage, resulting in increased severity of the future flood scenario. Increase in
storm surges in the western coast of the Gulf of Thailand will also bring about a 2% increase
of flood-prone area in Metro Bangkok. It is expected that flooding will mostly affect the
western part of Metro Bangkok where the existing and planned flood protection infrastructure
including dikes and pumps may be inadequate for the future scenario.

These direct effects of climate change will likely reflect significant impacts across
major infrastructural sectors, including building and housing, transportation, water supply

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and sanitation, energy and public health, and will therefore have huge implications to the
environments and livelihood of the urban poor in Metro Bangkok. Some of the important and
severe implications are summarized below.

• About one million inhabitants of Metro Bangkok living in flooded area under the A1FI
scenario are estimated to be affected.
• About 1/8 of the affected inhabitants, or about 125,000, will be from squatter
settlements. Most of these inhabitants will live below poverty level.

• About 1/3, or 333,000, of the affected inhabitants may be subject to over 0.5 meter of
remaining flood for at least one week.

• More than one million building and housing units (used for residential, commercial
and industrial purposes) may be impacted by flooding in 2050, 300,000 of which are
located in western and southern Metro Bangkok.

Damage to buildings and assets alone may exceed THB 110 billion (or about USD 3.6
billion, at current prices). However, the deteriorated living conditions in the expanded flood-
prone area in Metro Bangkok will further exacerbate the hardship already faced by the urban
poor and inhabitants of squatter settlements, by depriving them of basic sanitation and
access to clean water and by increasing their exposure to water-borne diseases. These
significant impacts, if calculated, are likely to make the total damage considerably higher.

B. AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL LIVELIHOODS

For Southeast Asia, the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change can
be quite high. This is because small increases in temperature can cause large reduction in
crop yields as many crops are already grown at temperatures near their thermal optimum. In
addition, changes in precipitation and sea-level rise can pose significant risks since most
agriculture in Southeast Asia is still rain-fed.

A study on water and climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin has shown that there
will be an increase in the water flow rates in the Mekong River in rainy seasons (August-
October), whereas in dry seasons, the water flow rates will decrease significantly. It is
expected that the studied area, the Tonle Sap floodplains in Cambodia, will be subject to an
increase in flood volume, an expansion of flood-prone area, as well as an increase in the
length of flood period in the future climate scenarios (A2 and B2).

Most residents of the Tonle Sap floodplains are rice-farmers and fishermen, depending
heavily on the hydrological dynamics of the lake. Moreover, most residents in the area are
poor and are vulnerable to any changes in natural resources and the environment. Many of
them have already recognized some changes and experienced increased flood severity, as

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well as a decrease in fishery resources, even today. Some adaptation measures have
therefore been implemented locally, including use of floating houses, use of groundwater for
safe drinking, temporary occupation shift during flooding and rural to urban migration of
some family members. As impacts are expected to be more acute in the future, there
certainly needs to be more organized efforts to sustain the agricultural production and
livelihood of Tonle Sap residents.

Much of the rain-fed agricultural area in Southeast Asia can relate to the Tonle Sap
case study. In a recent work by Pannangpetch et al. assessed the impacts of climate change
on four key annual crops in Thailand, including rice, sugarcane, cassava and maize and
found that simulated yields for 2090-2099 of cassava and maize fell by 43% and 15%
respectively, while sugar yields are expected to increase by 6%. A traditional method
farmers have used to increase yields is through farmland expansion, which often leads to
forest encroachment. Excessive conversion of land uses from forests to farmland will
eventually exacerbate the drought and flood conditions in the area, making it even more
difficult for the residents to adapt, and bring about a substantial loss in the quality of
ecosystem services necessary to sustain the livelihood of the rural poor.

GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS TO ADDRESS CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has planned and implemented

several structural and non-structural measures in response to climate change impacts in
Metro Bangkok, particularly to address the present and future flood and storm surge
scenarios. Structural measures include the construction of polders, dikes and monkey
cheeks (water retention area) for water drainage and retention. In addition, existing irrigation
canals can be improved to divert water. Moreover, the BMA has a plan to construct 10 T-
groins along the 4.7-km shoreline southwest of Bangkok to protect against coastal erosion.
Apart from the T-groins, the BMA will grow mangrove trees to protect the shoreline. At
present, local people construct bamboo barriers to weaken the strength of the waves hitting
the coast to prevent coastal erosion. In addition, the bamboo barriers help to raise silt
deposition on the coast. For non-structural measures, several flood forecasting and warning
systems are implemented by a number of agencies. The Thai Meteorological Department
(TMD) issues flood warnings nationwide based on the weather forecasting results. The
Department of Water Resources and the Royal Irrigation Department issue a warning when
a large scale flood (over 3,000 m3/sec) is expected at the northern part of the Chao Phraya
River. The BMA also issues a warning when a heavy rainfall occurs around or in Bangkok.

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 At the national level, government programs to address climate change are generally
fragmented with different programs in different line ministries. The Ministry of Natural
Resources and Environment took the first step at trying to integrate these fragmented efforts
under the National Strategic Plan on Climate Change (2008-2012), and formed a national-
level committee, chaired by the Prime Minister, to oversee nationwide policy formulation for
more coherent and coordinated efforts. As science becomes more compelling and as it is
now widely received that effective efforts in addressing climate change should be
incorporated or mainstreamed into development planning, as well as area-based planning,
the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) is now working
towards including climate change as part of the next phase of Thailand’s national
development plan for 2012-2016. Correspondingly, the Ministry of Natural Resources and
Environment is now in the process of framing the next National Environmental Quality
Management Plan (2012-2016), and climate change mitigation and adaptation is likely to be
integrated as strategic issues contributing to sustainable natural resource and environmental
management, which is the ultimate goal of the Plan.

Under different line ministries, the Department of Disaster Prevention and

Management has launched a National Disaster Plan incorporating climate change induced
natural disasters. The Ministry of Science and Technology has recently established the
Climate Change Knowledge Management Center to collect, synthesize and disseminate
knowledge on climate change to support strategic planning of government agencies, private
sector as well as the local community, to strengthen the coping capacity to climate risks. The
Office of Agricultural Economics formed a committee to study climate change mitigation and
adaptation. In recognition that its routine work on species selection and crop variety
improvement related to drought or flood tolerance is an important foundation for adaptation,
the Rice Department has already taken continuous actions to promote and support
conservation of local plant varieties tolerant to variable conditions. The Royal Irrigation
Department plays an important role in managing water resources for agriculture in Thailand
and also in flood protection for many cities and towns. In addition, Thailand Research Fund,
with its working groups on climate change issues, has helped to develop and support the
growing network of climate change experts in Thailand as well as provide significant public
policy support.

OPPORTUNITIES OF GREEN GROWTH FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMY OF

THE POOR

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 In the effort of making green growth strategies more inclusive and capable of
addressing climate change impacts of the poor, these opportunities should be considered:

• Support the role of poor farmers in the renewable energy scheme, by building
knowledge and capacity and providing incentives for poor farmers to plant and
manage energy crops and to collect agricultural waste, and by facilitating and
ensuring market access to secure constant supply of crops and biomass waste for
renewable energy production. (Comparable incentives should also be provided for
agricultural food production to keep balance in achieving both the goals of energy
and food security.)
• Provide incentives for investment in natural capitals to reduce vulnerabilities and
create more resilience to climate change impacts by promoting measures such as
Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) or Reducing Emission from Deforestation in
Developing Countries (REDD) and support the role of poor rural communities in
conservation activities.

• Build knowledge and develop capacity of local governments to integrate or

mainstream climate risks as well as environmental sustainability into land use, city
and infrastructure planning

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REFERENCES:

Adaptation Knowledge Platform, “Scoping Assessment for National Implementation in

Thailand: Summary.” (October 2010) 

K. Pannangpetch et al., “Impacts of Global Warming on Rice, Sugarcane, Cassava, And

Maize Production in Thailand: Final Technical Report. 31 october 2009.” (Thailand Research
Fund, 2009).

Marko Keskinen, Suppakorn Chinvanno, Matti Kummu, Paula Nuorteva, Anond Snidvongs,
Olli Varis and Kaisa Vastila, “Water and Climate Change in the Lower Mekong Basin:
Diagnosis and Recommendations for Adaptation.” (2009)

Panya consultants, Co. Ltd., “Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for Bangkok
Metropolitan Region.” (March 2009)

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