RISK ANALYSIS

Chapter 3
Probability of Simple
Events
A Prelude
Probability of Simple Events
Objective:
Students will be able to find the probability of a simple
event.
Students will be able to understand the distinction
between simple events and compound events.
Probability of Simple Events
Vocabulary:
 Outcome – one possible result of a probability.
 Sample Space – the list of possible outcomes for
a probability event.
 Random – outcomes that occur at random if each
outcome is equally likely to occur.
 Simple Event – a specific outcome or type of
outcome.
 Complementary Events – the events of one
outcome happening and that outcomes not
happening are complimentary; the sum of the
probabilities of complementary events is 1.
Probability of Simple Events
Real World Example:
Best Buy is having an IPOD giveaway. They put all
the IPOD Shuffles in a bag. Customers may
choose an IPOD without looking at the color.
Inside the bag are 4 orange, 5 blue, 6 green, and
5 pink IPODS. If Maria chooses one IPOD at
random, what is the probability she will choose
an orange IPOD?
Probability of Simple Events
Real World Example:
Best Buy is having an IPOD giveaway. They
put all the IPOD Shuffles in a bag.
Customers may choose an IPOD without
looking at the color. Inside the bag are 4
orange, 5 blue, 6 green, and 5 pink IPODS.
If Maria chooses one IPOD at random,
what is the probability she will choose an
orange IPOD?

P(orange) = 4/20 = 2/10 = 1/5 or 20%

Probability of Simple Events
What is a PROBABILITY?
- Probability is the chance that some
event will happen

- It is the ratio of the number of ways a

certain event can occur to the
number of possible outcomes
Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?

number of favorable outcomes

P(event) =
number of possible outcomes

Examples that use Probability:

(1) Dice, (2) Spinners, (3) Coins, (4) Deck of
Cards, (5) Evens/Odds, (6) Alphabet, etc.
Probability of Simple Events

What is a PROBABILITY?
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

0 ¼ or .25 ½ 0r .5 ¾ or .75 1

Impossible Not Very Equally Likely Somewhat Certain

Likely Likely
Probability of Simple Events
Example 1: Roll a dice.
What is the probability of rolling a 4?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

1
P(rolling a 4) = 6

The probability of rolling a 4 is 1 out of 6

Probability of Simple Events
Example 2: Roll a dice.
What is the probability of rolling an even
number?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

3 1
P(even #) = 6 = 2

The probability of rolling an even number is 3 out of 6 or .5 or

50%
Probability of Simple Events
Example 4: Flip a coin.
What is the probability of flipping a tail?

# favorable outcomes
P(event) =
# possible outcomes

1 1
P(tail) = =
2 2

The probability of spinning green is 1 out of 2 or .5 or 50%

 Probability of Simple Events
Example 5: Deck of Cards.
What is the probability of picking a heart?
# favorable outcomes 13 1
P(heart) = = =
# possible outcomes 52 4
The probability of picking a heart is
1 out of 4 or .25 or 25%
What is the probability of picking a non heart?
# favorable outcomes 39 3
P(nonheart) = = =
# possible outcomes 52 4
The probability of picking a heart is
3 out of 4 or .75 or 75%
Probability of Simple Events

Key Concepts:

- Probability is the chance that some

event will happen

- It is the ratio of the number of ways a

certain even can occur to the total
number of possible outcomes
Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice: Calculate the probability of

each independent event.

1) P(black) =
2) P(1) =
3) P(odd) =
4) P(prime) =
Probability of Simple Events

Guided Practice: Answers.

1) P(black) = 4/8
1
2) P(1) = /8
1
3) P(odd) = /2
4) P(prime) = 1/2
Probability of Simple Events

Independent Practice: Calculate the

probability of each independent event.

1) P(red) =
2) P(2) =
3) P(not red) =
4) P(even) =
Probability of Simple Events

Independent Practice: Answers.

1) P(red) = 1/2
1
2) P(2) = /4
3) P(not red) = 1/2
4) P(even) = 1/2
 What is RISK?
• Risk is the possibility of losing something of value. Values (such as physical
health, social status, emotional well-being, or financial wealth) can be
gained or lost when taking risk resulting from a given action or inaction,
foreseen or unforeseen (planned or not planned).
 RISK ANALYSIS
• Risk analysis is the process of identifying and analyzing potential
issues that could negatively impact key business initiatives or critical
projects in order to help organizations avoid or mitigate those risks
Risk factors
• Exposure to the risk factor precedes appearance of the adverse effect.
• The risk factor and the adverse effect are consistently associated.
That is, the adverse effect is not usually observed in the absence of
the risk factor.
• The more of the risk factor there is, or the greater its intensity, the
greater the adverse effect, although the functional relationship need
not be linear or monotonic.
• The occurrence or magnitude of the adverse effect is statistically
significantly greater in the presence of the risk factor that in its
absence.
What is environmental risk
analysis/assessment (ERA)?

• Qualitative and quantitative valuation

of environmental status

• ERA is comprised of:

1. human health risk assessment;
2. ecological risk assessment.
 Systematic approach to risk
assessment

• ERA should be conducted when it is

determined that a management action may
have consequences to either humans or
the environment.
 Human health risk
assessment (HHRA)

Involves:
• hazard identification;
• dose-response assessment;
• exposure assessment;
• risk characterization.
 Ecological risk assessment
(ERA)

• It is determined the likelihood of the

occurrence/non-occurrence of adverse
ecological effects as a result of exposure
to stressors
 Hazards
• chemicals toxic to humans, animals, and plants;
• materials that are highly flammable or explosive;
• mechanical equipment, the failure of which would
endanger persons and property;
• structural failure (e.g., dam or containment vessel);
• natural disasters that exacerbate technological
hazards;
• ecosystem damage (e.g., eutrophication, soil
erosion).
 Examples of information about hazards
• potential release of hazardous chemicals (rate and amount);
• accidental fires and explosions;
• transport and fate of pollutants in the environment;
• dilution-dispersion mechanisms and rates;
• exposure to toxins (who, how many, how much);
• dose-response predictions based on animal tests;
• failure rates of mechanical equipment or structures;
• human behavior (errors by workers, public reaction);
• natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, typhoon);
• alterations in drainage patterns, water table, vegetation,
microclimate.
 Uncertainties
• lack of understanding of important cause-effect
relationships, lack of scientific theory;
• models that do not correspond to reality;
• weaknesses in available data;
• data gaps;
• toxicological data that are extrapolated;
• natural variation in environmental parameters;
• necessary assumptions on which estimates are
based, and the sensitivity of the resulting estimates
to changes in the assumptions;
• novelty of the project.
ERA addresses three questions

1. What can go wrong with the project?

2. What is the range of magnitude of these
adverse consequences?
3. What can be done and at what cost to
reduce unacceptable risk and damage?
The interactive
nature of ERA
Purposes in performing ERA

• to learn about the risks

• to reduce the risk
 Risk comparison

• Probability of frequency of events causing

one or more immediate fatalities.
• Chance of death for an individual within a
specified population in each year.
• Number of deaths from lifetime exposure.
• Loss of life expectancy considers the age
at which death occurs.
• Deaths per tone of product, or per facility.
Quantitative risk assessments
– a possible scenario
• quantity of toxic material in the inventory is
hazardous;
• overpressure in the storage tank in combination
with failure of the relief valve leading to tank
rupture;
• combination of wind speed and atmospheric
stability leading to an estimated spatial and
temporal distribution of toxic material
concentration;
• population distribution based on night-time
occurrence.
 Risk communication
Psychologists studying risk perception find
that fears are heightened beyond what the
objective facts would warrant when:
• risks are involuntary or controlled by others;
• the consequences are dread and delayed;
• the benefits and risks are inequitably
distributed;
• the proposed project is unfamiliar and
involves complex technology;
• basic needs such as clean air, drinking
water, or food are threatened.
 Risk management:
3 main phases
• Risk analysis and assessment: identification
of hazards to people and the environment,
the determination of the probability of
occurrence of these hazards, and the
magnitude of the events.
• Risk limits - entails defining the acceptability
of the risk, which can be classified as
acceptable or in need of reduction.
• Risk reduction: design and implementation
of risk-reducing measures and controls.
 Guidelines for disaster
management planning
1. Specification;
2. Plot plan;
3. Hazardous area classification;
4. Diagrams showing all the equipment in
position, process and utility valves,
instruments, control system, safety valves
and other safety devices;
5. Storage of inflammable liquids;
6. Risk assessment.
 Hazard analysis:
risk assessment of plants
1. Which materials or process streams are
flammable or combustible?
2. What is their ignition temperature or what is
their ignition energy requirement?
3. How fast will they burn?
4. How much heat can be generated per unit?
5. How much quantity will be available in any
one area?
6. Will it explode?
 Scope and objectives of risk
assessment of industries
(a) To develop a risk hazard checking system.
(b) To rank the plant layout on the hazard potentials.
(c) To re-modify the plant layout and identify safety
measures to be undertaken within the industry, so as to
minimize the on-site economic damage as well as off-site
risks to the society and environment.
(d) To assist the regulatory authorities, planners, and
designers to investigate plant accidents and predict the
possible consequences for decision-making.
(e) To make decisions on industrial clearance swiftly and on
a more rational basis.
 Total risk assessment

1. Identification of possible hazardous events.

2. Consequence analysis.
3. Quantitative analysis of system failure
probability from their component failure or
frequency assessment
Hazard identification procedures

• depends primarily upon two factors: data

and organization.
 Frequency assessment and
quantitative analysis
• What is the probability that the system will fail
on demand?
• What is the frequency of occurrence of the top
event?
• Does a change in the system design improve
or reduce the system reliability?
 Events involving flammable
materials
• (a) major fires with no danger of explosion,
with hazards from prolonged high levels of
thermal radiation and smoke;
• (b) fire threatening items of plant containing
hazardous substances, with hazards from
spread of fire, explosion, or release of toxic
substances;
• (c) explosion with little or no warning, with
hazards from blast wave, flying debris, and
high levels of thermal radiation.
Ex. assume that an automobile trip, when a driver and one
passenger occupy the car, has ten possible outcomes:
1. The car will arrive safely at the destination without incident.
2. The car will be involved in an accident but no occupant will be injured.
3. The car will be involved in an accident and an occupant other than the driver will be injured.
The driver will be uninjured.
4. The car will be involved in an accident and the driver will be injured, but the occupant will be
uninjured.
5. The car will be involved in an accident and an occupant other than the driver will be killed, while
the driver is uninjured.
6. The car will be involved in an accident and the driver will be killed while the occupant will be
uninjured.
7. The car will be involved in an accident and an occupant other than the driver will be killed, while
the driver is injured.
8. The car will be involved in an accident and the driver will be killed while the occupant is injured.
9. The car will be involved in an accident and driver and occupant will both be injured.
10. The car will be involved in an accident and driver and occupant will both be killed.
Conditional Probability
• CP is the product of the probabilities.
P(nonfatal injury) = P(accident) X (injury|accident)
 Events involving toxic materials
• (a) slow or intermittent release of toxic substances,
(from a leaking valve);
• (b) items of plant threatened by fire, with hazards from
potential loss of containment;
• (c) rapid release of limited duration, due to plant failure
(fracture of pipe, with hazards from a toxic cloud, limited
in size, which may quickly disperse);
• (d) massive release of a toxic substance due to failure of
a large storage or process vessel, an uncontrollable
chemical reaction and failure of safety systems, with the
exposure hazard affecting a wide area.
The assessment of possible incidents
should produce a report indicating:
(a) the worst events considered;
(b) the route of those worst events;
(c) the timescale to lesser events along the
way;
(d) the size of lesser events if their
development is halted;
(e) the relative likelihood of events;
(f) the consequences of each event.
 Elements to be included in an on-
site emergency plan
• (a) proper alarm and communication mechanisms;
• (b) appointment of personnel, which include:
(i) the site incident controller who will take care
of the area around the incident when the
emergency occurs and who will arrange the
required rescue operations;
(ii) a site main controller who will direct
operations from the emergency control center after
relieving the site incident controller of the
responsibility for overall control;
• (c) details of the emergency control centers.
Aspects to be included in an off-site
emergency plan
• (i) Organization.
• (ii) Communications.
• (iii) Specialized emergency equipment.
• (iv) Specialized knowledge.
• (v) Voluntary organizations.
• (vi) Chemical information.
• (vii) Meteorological information.
• (viii) Humanitarian arrangements.
• (ix) Public information.
• (x) Assessment.
Thank you!