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On the Theory of the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty

Agnar Sandmo

The American Economic Review, Vol. 61, No. 1. (Mar., 1971), pp. 65-73.

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Tue Sep 4 16:14:42 2007
On the Theory of the Competitive Firm

Under Price Uncertainty

In recent years several contributions I t is perhaps most natural to interpret


have been made to the theory of the firm the model of the paper as beirig concerned
under uncertainty, removing the assump- with the short run. The firm makes its
tion that the demand for the product is output decisions with sole regard for short-
known with certainty a t the time when run profits and does not consider the rela-
the output decision is made. I n most of tionship between this output policy and
these papers the assumption is made that long-run policies for investment and fi-
the objective of the firm is to maximize nance. I n a sense, it is a weakness of the
expected pr0fits.l This is hardly a very model that i t takes no account of this in-
satisfactory assumption, since it com- terrelatedness; but it may also be con-
pletely rules out risk averse behavior, and sidered a strength, because a more
so many elementary facts of economic life complete model would make it necessary
seem to indicate a prevalence of risk aver- to draw up a much larger and more de-
sion. tailed list of assumptions about the
The present paper is intended as a sys- economic environment of the firm than is
tematic study of the theory of the competi- needed for the present paper. The results
tive firm under price uncertainty and risk presented here are thus compatible with
aversion. We assume that the decision on several alternative sets of assumptions
the volume of output to be produced about investment opportunities, financial
must be taken prior to the sales date, a t markets, and the structure of ownership.
which the market price becomes known. I t is only essential to assume that short-
The firm's beliefs about the sales price can run output decisions are dominated by a
be summarized in a subjective probability concern for short-run profits.
distribution. However, since the firm is Occasionally, especially in Section 111,
unable to influence this distribution, the we shall also find it convenient to use the
basic assumption that the firm is a price model to analyze some long-run problems.
taker is retained-in a probabilistic sense.2 It then becomes necessary to assume that
these long-run elements have implicitly
* Professor of economics, Norwegian School of Eco- been accounted for. This is hardly satis-
nomics and Business Administration. This paper was factory. Still, it is a useful simplification
written while I was a fellow of the Center for Operations with long traditions in the theory of the
Research and Econometrics, Universit6 Catholique de
Louvain. I am indebted to Jacques DrSze and Jean firm.
Jaskold Gabszewicz for their valuable comments. We shall assume that the firm's attitude
For some examples see the papers by Drsze and towards risk can be summarized by a von
Gabszewicz, Kenneth Smith, Edward Zabel, and the
book by Clement Tisdell. Seumann-Morgenstern utility function.
A similar approach is taken by Phoebus Dhrymes, This may be a strong assumption, becausc
Saul Hymans, John McCall, Bernt Stigum (1969a) and in many firms decisions are typically taken
Hayne Leland (1969). Some interesting comments can
also be found in Karl Borch (ch. 12, especially pp. 171- by a group of individuals, and group
73). preferences may not always satisfy the
66 T H E AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW

transitivity axiom required for the exis- be a (subjectively) random variable with
tence of a utility function. I t is therefore density function f(p) and expected value
possible that this approach implicitly as- E [ P ] = ~ .Naturally, p is restricted to be
sumes that the firm's reactions to changes nonnegative. This means that, once x has
in its environment are more predictable been chosen, the firm's maximum loss is
and stable than they really are. However, (- C(x) - B). Clearly also, ~ ( 0=)- B.
there are still many firms in which deci- The expected utility of profits can be
sions are essentially made by one person, written as
and there are presumably firms in which
preferences are sufficiently similar within
the group of decision makers to guarantee
where E is the expectations operator.
the existence of a group preference func-
Differentiating with respect to x, we obtain
tion. This provides justification for the
as necessary and sufficient conditions for a
approach taken in this paper.
maximum :
I. Optimal Output under Uncertainty
We assume that the objective of the firm
is to maximize the expected utility of
profits. The utility function of the firm is
a concave, continuous and differentiable
function of profits, so that I t is interesting to note that in order for
the second-order condition (6) to hold, i t
is not necessary to assume increasing
Thus, the firm is assumed to be risk averse. marginal cost.
It is well known that in order for a utility For the remainder of Section I and in
function to satisfy the von Neumann- Section 11, we assume that (5) and (6)
Morgenstern axioms without giving rise determine a non-zero, finite and unique
to St. Petersburg phenomena, it must be solution to the maximization problem.
bounded from above.3 Strictly speaking, The problems of existence and of corner
then, equation (1) holds only in the range solutions will be discussed in Section 111.
below the upper bound of U. One question which is naturally raised
The cost function of the firm is by the introduction of price uncertainty
is this: how does the optimal output com-
pare with the well-known competitive
where x is output, C ( x ) is the variable solution under certainty? Under certainty,
cost function, and B is "fixed cost." About the solution is characterized by equality
the variable cost function we make the between price and marginal cost. There is
following general assumptions : no obvious way of making such a compari-
son, but one possible and appealing speci-
fication of the problem is this: what is the
The firm's profit function can now be optimal output under uncertainty as com-
defined as pared with the situation where the price
is known to be equal to the expected value
of the original distribution? Referring to
where p is the price of output, assumed to the latter level of output as the certainty
a See on this point Kenneth Arrow, who also argues
output, we shall now show that under
that U must be hounded from below. price uncertainty, output is smaller than the
SANDMO: COMPETITIVE F I R M UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY 67

certainty output. This is a generalization (11) proves our statement above. Equa-
of a theorem of McCall, who proves a tion (11) is, of course, also valid for con-
similar result for the case of a utility func- stant or decreasing marginal cost, but then
tion with constant absolute risk aversion. the competitive output is not well defined.
The first-order condition (5) can be This result is not the only conceivable
written as answer to the question of the effect of
uncertainty on the output decision. Fol-
lowing Jacques Dr6ze and Franco Modig-
Subtract EIU1(n)p] on each side of this liani, we may describe our result as
equation. We then get concerned with the overall impact of un-
certainty. However, one may also be in-
terested in the question of the marginal
impact; i.e., the effect of making a given
Since E[n] =px- C(x) - B (from the defini- distribution "slightly more risky." It is
tion of profits), we have that n = E[n] not obvious how this can be formalized; in
+ (p- p)x. Clearly the following we shall adopt a procedure
used in Sandmo.
Let us define a small increase in risk as
I t follows immediately that a "stretching" of the probability distribu-
tion around a constant mean. This requires
the introduction of two shift parameters,
This inequality holds for all p. For if one multiplicative and one additive. Thus,
p i p , the inequality sign in (9) is reversed, let us write price as
but then multiplication by (p -p) will
still make 5 hold in (10). Taking expecta-
tions on both sides of (10) and noting that where y is the multiplicative shift param-
Uf(E[n]) is a given number, we obtain eter and 8 is the additive one. An increase
of y alone (from the point y = 1, B= 0)
will "blow up" all values of p ; it will
But, here the right-hand side is equal to therefore increase the mean as well as the
zero by definition, and so the left-hand variance. To restore the mean we have to
side is negative. Then we know that the reduce 6 simultaneously, so that
right-hand side of (8) is negative also. But
this can be written as

and, since marginal utility is always posi- We can now write the profit function as
tive, this implies ~ ( x=) (yp+B)x- C(x) -B and differen-
tiate with respect to y, taking account of
(12). The result is then
That is, optimal output is characterized by
marginal cost being less than the expected
price. Now under certainty the only types
of cost curves compatible with competitive
assumptions are those for which the mar-
ginal cost curve is either everywhere in-
creasing or else U-shaped. I n those cases, Of these two terms, the last one is clearly
68 T H E AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW

negative (from the proof above and from decision maker becomes wealthier (in
the second-order condition). However, the terms of income, profit etc.), his risk pre-
sign of the first term is in general indeter- mium for any risky prospect, defined as
minate, so that a t the present level of the difference between the mathematical
generality it does not seem possible to expectation of the return from the prospect
make a precise statement about the margi- and its certainty equivalent, should de-
nal impact of uncertainty. crease, or a t least not increase. If RR(T)
There is one special case in which we is increasing, this means that the elasticity
would expect the marginal impact of un- of the risk premium with respect to T is
certainty to become identical to the over- less than one in absolute value. Arrow
all impact. T h a t is in the case where we argues that there are good theoretical and
start from the certainty of p = p and re- empirical reasons for making this assump-
place this certain price by a probability tion, but the evidence for it does not seem
distribution with all outcomes concen- conclusive, and we shall not commit our-
trated in the neighborhood of p. This is selves to a specific hypothesis as to the
not too easily handled, since our stretch- form of RR(R).4
ing procedure breaks down in that case. One of the basic results in the theory of
However, we can get around this difficulty the firm under certainty is that fixed costs
by noting that, when price is known to be do not matter in the sense that once a
equal to p, we must have C1(x) = p. Then strictly positive output level has been
the first term in (13) becomes chosen, this output is unaffected by an
infinitesimal increase in fixed costs. This
is not so under uncertainty. Differentiating
in ( 5 ) with respect to B, we obtain
which is certainly negative. Thus, both
terms in (13) are negative, and their signs
depend only on the assumption of risk
aversion. The connection with the overall Decreasing absolute risk aversion i s a rteces-
impact of uncertainty is thereby estab- sary and suscient condition for dx/dB to be
lished. negative. The proof of this is as follows:
Let iibe the level of profits when p= C1(x).
11. The Comparative Statics of the Firm Then, since R ~ ( Tis) decreasing5
Simply assuming the existence of risk
aversion is a very weak restriction on the Some remarks on the empirical evidence can be
found in the article by Joseph Stiglitz. For derivations
firm's attitudes to risk. Further restric- of the risk aversion functions the reader is referred to
tions on the utility function may be intro- the contributions of Arrow and John Pratt. Hypotheses
duced by means of the Arrow-Pratt risk about the risk aversion functions have been applied to
portfolio theory by Arrow, to insurance purchasing and
aversion functions : to taxation and risk-taking by Jan Mossin (1968a, b),
U" (7r) and to the analysis of saving decisions by Sandmo.
Absolute risk aversion: RA(7r) = ---- Several other examples of application could easily be
U1(T) given.
6 This must be interpreted with care. We are in-
Ull (7r)7r
Relative risk aversion: RR(n)= ---- terested in the properties of the risk aversion function
U 1 ( ~ ) at the optimum position, i.e., for the output level
x = r * which is the solution to (5). For this given output
It seems reasonable to assume that level, (15) is certainly true. It is important to note that
this local relationship is independent of the global lack
RA(R) is a decreasing function of T. This of any one-to-one relationship between the algebraic
would reflect the hypothesis that as a signs of profits and marginal revenue.
SANDMO: COMPETITIVE F I R M UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY 69

do this in the following way: Let us write


Substituting from the definition of RA(T), price as $4- 8, where 8 is again an additive
we obtain shift parameter. Increasing 6 is equivalent
to moving the probability distribution to
?Y1'(n) the right without changing its shape.
-.
5 RA(+) for p - ~ ' ( x )20 Differentiating (5) with respect to 0 and
G1(a)
evaluating the derivative a t 8 = 0 we ob-
(Note that RA(A)is a given number and
tain
not a random variable.) We know of
course that
(17) - U f ( r ) ( p - C 1 ( ~ ) ) s Ofor p-C1(x)ZO,
since marginal utility is positive. Now or, substituting from (14),
multiply (16) by the left-hand side of (17).
We then get

This expression is similar to the Slutsky


This holds for all p. For if p 5 C1(x),the equation familiar from demand analysis.
inequality in (16) is reversed, but so is I t says that the firm's response to an in-
that in (17). Now taking expected values crease in expected price can be decom-
we obtain posed into two separate effects, one of
which is analogous to a decrease in fixed
costs, and the other one is a pure substitu-
tion effect. Of the latter effect we can im-
But by the first-order condition (j), the mediately say that it is positive. As for the
right-hand side is equal to zero, and the sign of the former effect we can draw on
left-hand side is accordingly positive. But our previous result to conclude that de-
then the derivative (14) is negative and crea,sing absolute risk aversion is a su$cient
our proposition is proved. condition for dx/d8 to be positi~e,i.e., for an
Is this conclusion in itself intuitively upward-sloping supply curve. Again the
plausible? This question may perhaps best implication of decreasing absolute risk
be judged by considering whether a lump aversion seems intuitively plausible. It
sum tax or a lump sum subsidy would be implies, e.g., that in order to increase out-
the most appropriate policy measure for put the government should consider a per
making the firm increase its output. unit subsidy, rather than a per unit tax, as
Economic intuition seems strongly to sug- the appropriate policy m e a ~ u r e . ~
gest the latter alternative, which is exactly Another well-established result in the
what our result implies. theory of the firm is that a change in a
We turn now to an examination of the proportional rate of profit taxation will
firm's supply function. Since the price is have no effect on the level of output. A
seen by the firm as a random variable, i t priori there is no reason to expect this re-
does not make sense to speak about the sult to hold under uncertainty.
effect of an "increase in price." I t seems The interested reader who wishes to see an example
natural, however, to discuss the closely where the possibility of a downward-sloping supply
related problem of an increase in the math- curve does occur may consider the simple case of a
quadratic utility function and constant marginal cost,
ematical expectation of the price with where the supply curve bends backward for expected
higher central moments constant. We can price sufficiently high.
70 T H E AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW

With price uncertainty the question of according as relative risk aversion i s increas-
loss offset provisions becomes important. ing, constant, or decreasing.
If there is no loss offset, the profit function If RR(x) is increasing, we must have that
of the firm becomes U1'( n )n
(21) -------. 2 R R ( ~ )for p - C f ( x ) 2 0
U1(n)
for p 5
C(x) +B Multiplying this by - U t ( a )( p - Ct(x))
X yields

for p >
C(x) +B
X
and by the argument used in the proof
On the other hand, if there is full loss off- above, this inequality holds for all p. Tak-
set, the profit function can be written as ing expectations, the right-hand side
vanishes, and we have that
n(x)=(px-C(x)-B)(l-t) for a l l p

I t is not easy to decide which of these


two assumptions is the more interesting From this it follows that dx/dt is positive
and realistic one. Full loss offset presup- in the case of increasing relative risk aver-
poses that the firm or its owner(s) has sion. The proof of the rest of the statement
other income from which any loss can be follows immediately.
deducted. In fact, tax laws in many coun- 111. Profits, Entry, and Returns to Scale
tries do provide for loss offset, either
I t is well known that under certainty
against other income or against future
increasing marginal cost is necessary for
profits, so that there may be reasons for
the existence of a competitive optimum for
concentrating attention on this case?
With full loss offset expected utility is the firm. This is not so under uncertainty,
as we shall now demonstrate?
Consider first the case where marginal
and the first-order condition becomes cost is constant. Then concavity and
boundedness of U as a function of a is
(19) E[U'(T)(P - C1(x))l = 0, sufficient to show that there exists a finite
as before, since the multiplicative factor x=x* which gives a maximum of U. The
(1-t) can be factored out. case C1I(x)> O is equally simple, because
increasing marginal cost only reinforces
Differentiating in (19) with respect to t
the concavity of U as a function of x. I t
yields
follows also that the case of a U-shaped
marginal cost curve is only slightly more
complicated for then U will be concave
in x in the region for which C t ( x )Zmin
I t can be shown that increasing the tax rate Ct( x ).
will increase, leave constant or reduce output Note also that in the case of decreasing
MC followed by constant MC the above
7This argument is not entirely satisfactory, however.
If "other income" of "future profits" are a t least par- 8 For a rigorous discussion of the existence of optimal
tially determined by the firm's own actions, they should policies under uncertainty the reader is referred to
presumably be integrated into the model. Leland (1970).
SANDMO: COMPETITIVE F I R M UNDER P R I C E UNCERTAINTY 71

argument remains valid; there will be a maining terms and dividing through by
determinate optimal level of output for U1(px*-C(x*)-B) so as to make the
the firm. The troublesome case is where expressions invariant under linear trans-
M C is everywhere decreasing and bound- formations of the utility function, we then
edness of the utility function no longer get
guarantees the existence of an optimal
L7(px*-C(x*)- B)- C(- B )
policy. However, it remains true that de-
creasing M C is not a sufficient condition
for the nonexistence of an optimal output
level; thus a market m a y be competitive
even under this assumption.
So far, we have assumed the existence Both sides of this inequality have the di-
of an interior maximum for the firm; i.e., mension of money. The factors on the
we have assumed that the optimal level of right-hand side are the risk aversion func-
output is strictly positive. But we know tion, evaluated a t the expected level of
from received theory that even if the con- profit for x= x*, and the variance of sales,
dition "price=marginal cost" determines ~ " ~ E [ p - p ]Since
~ . both these factors are
a local maximum of profits, the maximum positive, the left-hand side must also be
need not, even if i t is a unique interior positive, and with a strictly increasing
maximum, give us the global maximum. utility function this implies that
The reason is simply that the interior
maximum may result in negative profits,
so that the best policy is to produce noth-
ing a t all. I n other words, production will
take place a t a positive level if, and only
if, the best positive production level re-
sults in nonnegative profit.
i.e., a t the optimum expected price must be
Let x* be the output level which is the
larger than average cost, so that the firm re-
solution to (5) and satisfies (6). Then x"
quires positive expected profit in order to
will also give a global utility maximum,
choose a positive output level. I t should
provided that
be stressed that "positive" here means
"strictly positive." If expected profit for
x= x* were zero, (23) would not be satis-
I t will be recalled that - B is the level of
fied, and the output level of zero would be
profit for X = O?
chosen. We conclude, therefore, that com-
Developing the left-hand side of ( 2 2 ) in
petitive equilibrium under price uncer-
a Taylor series around the point p =p we
tainty and risk aversion requires the exist-
obtain, neglecting higher-order terms,
ence of positive profits.1°
It is interesting to study the role of risk
aversion in the long-run equilibrium posi-

lo As in any partial equilibrium analysis this state-


ment is somewhat incomplete. Implicit in it is the as-
The second term on the left-hand side is sumption that by not producing anything the owners
zero by definition. Rearranging the re- of firms can make a sure return by employing their re-
sources elsewhere in the economy. If this return is
g The argument here could equally well be carried strictly positive, "normal profits" should be included
out under the "long-run'' assumption that B =O. among the firms' costs.
72 THE AXERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW

tion.ll We assume therefore, to make the analysis can be extended and generalized.
discussion simpler, that firms have identi- We have had nothing to say on the subject
cal cost functions and identical probability of the multiproduct firm, which is of
beliefs. Looking a t (23) it is easy to see particular interest under uncertainty, since
that a ("almost") risk-neutral firm will the firm is able to spread its risks by output
require only a nonnegative profit to enter diversification.12 Neither have we had
the industry; in other words, as long as any anything to say about the role of inven-
positive level of expected profit remains, tories under demand uncertainty. Finally,
risk-neutral firms will enter. I t is also clear investment and financing decisions can
from (23) that firms with "very high" risk hardly be given adequate treatment in the
aversion will not enter the industry a t all, present framework.
or they will be marginal firms in the sense I t would also be interesting to place
that a very small decrease in expected the competitive firm facing price uncer-
price will make them leave the market. tainty in a general equilibrium framework.
The risk neutral firms will of course set This would require a different type of
marginal cost equal to expected price analysis from that of Debreu, in which
(assuming U-shaped cost curves), while there exists a complete set of markets for
the risk-averse firms in the industry will contingent commodities and the firm bears
choose output levels for which marginal no risk a t all. An alternative approach is
cost is less than expected price. In general, contained in a recent paper by Stigum
the distribution of output and expected (1969b), in which firms do bear risks and
profit among firms will vary with their entrepreneurs display risk averse behavior.
degree of risk aversion. Expected profit Evidently, alternative models can be con-
will be highest for those firms which come structed with different assumptions about
very close to being risk neutral and have ownership and market opportunities: the
the highest output in the industry. This theory of the firm developed in the present
observation confirms a view which has paper presumably will fit into some, but
long traditions in economic theory, viz. to not all, of these models.
regard profit as a reward to risk-bearing.
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On the Theory of the Competitive Firm Under Price Uncertainty
Agnar Sandmo
The American Economic Review, Vol. 61, No. 1. (Mar., 1971), pp. 65-73.
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[Footnotes]

2
Entrepreneurial Choice over Time under Conditions of Uncertainty
Bernt P. Stigum
International Economic Review, Vol. 10, No. 3. (Oct., 1969), pp. 426-442.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-6598%28196910%2910%3A3%3C426%3AECOTUC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-S

4
Aspects of Rational Insurance Purchasing
Jan Mossin
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76, No. 4, Part 1. (Jul. - Aug., 1968), pp. 553-568.
Stable URL:
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4
Taxation and Risk-Taking: An Expected Utility Approach
Jan Mossin
Economica, New Series, Vol. 35, No. 137. (Feb., 1968), pp. 74-82.
Stable URL:
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References

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LINKED CITATIONS
- Page 2 of 3 -

On the Theory of the Monopolistic Multiproduct Firm Under Uncertainty


Phoebus J. Dhrymes
International Economic Review, Vol. 5, No. 3. (Sep., 1964), pp. 239-257.
Stable URL:
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The Price-Taker: Uncertainty, Utility, and the Supply Function


Saul H. Hymans
International Economic Review, Vol. 7, No. 3. (Sep., 1966), pp. 346-356.
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Aspects of Rational Insurance Purchasing


Jan Mossin
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76, No. 4, Part 1. (Jul. - Aug., 1968), pp. 553-568.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28196807%2F08%2976%3A4%3C553%3AAORIP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J

Taxation and Risk-Taking: An Expected Utility Approach


Jan Mossin
Economica, New Series, Vol. 35, No. 137. (Feb., 1968), pp. 74-82.
Stable URL:
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0013-0427%28196802%292%3A35%3A137%3C74%3ATARAEU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-R

Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large


John W. Pratt
Econometrica, Vol. 32, No. 1/2. (Jan. - Apr., 1964), pp. 122-136.
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Entrepreneurial Choice over Time under Conditions of Uncertainty


Bernt P. Stigum
International Economic Review, Vol. 10, No. 3. (Oct., 1969), pp. 426-442.
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- Page 3 of 3 -

A Dynamic Model of the Competitive Firm


Edward Zabel
International Economic Review, Vol. 8, No. 2. (Jun., 1967), pp. 194-208.
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