EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS

RISK PROFILES
BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE

Uzbekistan
GDP $66.0 billion* $4 billion (5%) $20 billion (30%) $10 billion (19%)

Population 30.2 million* 2 million (6%) 10 million (32%) 10,000 (<1%)

*2015 estimates

U
zbekistan’s population and econ-
omy are exposed to earthquakes
and floods, with earthquakes
posing the greater risk of a high impact,
lower probability event. The model
results for present-day risk shown in
this risk profile are based on population
and gross domestic product (GDP) esti-
mates for 2015. The estimated damage
caused by historical events is inflated to
2015 US dollars.
More than 60 percent of Uzbekistan’s
population lives in rural environments.
The country’s GDP was approximately
US$66.0 billion in 2015, with most
derived from services and industries
TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES
FLOOD EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF
AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%)
Andijan 3 Namangan 7
Fergana 2 Andijan 7
(together about 80 percent) and
agriculture generating the remain-
der. Uzbekistan’s per capita GDP KAZA K H S TA N
was $2,190.
This map displays GDP by prov-
ince in Uzbekistan, with greater
color saturation indicating greater
GDP within a province. The blue
Karakalpakstan
circles indicate the risk of expe-
riencing floods and the orange Namangan
circles the risk of earthquakes in Tashkent
terms of normalized annual av-
Navoiy Tashkent City KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
erage of affected GDP. The largest
circles represent the greatest nor- Khorezm Tashkent
malized risk. The risk is estimated
using flood and earthquake risk
models. Jizzakh Sirdarya
Bukhara
Fergana
The table displays the provinces at Samarkand
T U R K M E N I S TA N
greatest normalized risk for each CHINA
TA J I K I S TA N Andijan
peril. In relative terms, as shown
Kashkadarya
in the table, the province at great-
est risk of floods is Andijan, and
Surkhandarya
the one at greatest risk of earth-
quakes is Namangan. In absolute
terms, the province at greatest
risk of floods is Fergana, and the A F G H A N I S TA N

Karakalpakstan 2 Fergana 6 one at greatest risk of earthquakes Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of $)
Namangan 1 Tashkent city 3 is Namangan.
Sirdarya 1 Samarkand 3 7 There is a high correlation
Bukhara 1 Tashkent 3 5 FLOOD (r=0.95) between the
Tashkent 1 Surkhandarya 3 population and GDP of a
1 EARTHQUAKE

1.1

2.

4.

5.

6.

7.
Jizzakh 1 Sirdarya 2 ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN province.

4
5
8

9
Samarkand 1 Jizzakh 2
Kashkadarya 1 Kashkadarya 2 Negligible
INDIA
PA K I S TA N
127
Uzbekistan FLOOD EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA)
RISK PROFILES

A
flood that occurred in Uzbeki- If the impact of a 100-year event is
stan in 2005 affected around much greater than that of a 10-year
1,500 people. event, then less frequent events make
a larger contribution to the annual
This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even
ing on provinces’ GDPs, represented if a province’s annual affected GDP
as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more
age GDPs affected, with greater color intense events can still have large KAZA K H S TA N
saturation indicating higher percent- impacts.
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP
affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect-
of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Uzbekistan is about
(black). The horizontal line across the 400,000 and the annual average
bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $800 million. For
GDP affected by floods. most provinces, the 10- and 100- Karakalpakstan
year impacts do not differ much, so
When a flood has a 10-year return relatively frequent floods have large
period, it means the probability of Tashkent City
impacts on these averages. For the KYRGYZ
occurrence of a flood of that magni- few in which the 100-year impacts Navoiy
Tashkent REPUBLIC
tude or greater is 10 percent per year. are much greater than the 10-year Khorezm
A 100-year flood has a probability impacts, less frequent events make a Tashkent
Namangan
of occurrence of 1 percent per year. significant contribution to the annual Andijan
This means that over a long period of average of affected GDP. Jizzakh Sirdarya
time, a flood of that magnitude will, Bukhara
on average, occur once every 100 Samarkand
T U R K M E N I S TA N
years. It does not mean a 100-year CHINA
flood will occur exactly once every TA J I K I S TA N
Kashkadarya
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
CASPIAN SEA Fergana
flood of any return period to occur
Surkhandarya
more than once in the same year, or
to appear in consecutive years, or not Affected GDP (%) for
to happen at all over a long period of 10 and 100-year return periods
time. One block = 1% 10 A F G H A N I S TA N

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the

5 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
same height, then the impact of a 10-
year event is as large as that of a 100- Annual average 2
year event, and the annual average of
ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
affected GDP is dominated by events 10-year 100-year

8
that happen relatively frequently.
INDIA
PA K I S TA N
128
Uzbekistan
U
zbekistan’s worst earthquake
since 1900 took place in
1902 in Andizhan, with a
magnitude of 6.4, and caused nearly
5,000 fatalities. More recently,
earthquakes in 1992 and 2011
caused approximately 10 fatalities
per event. Other major earthquakes
affecting Uzbekistan occurred in
circa 838, 1966, and 1984.
This map depicts the impact of
earthquakes on provinces’ GDPs,
represented as percentages of their
annual average GDPs affected, with
greater color saturation indicating
higher percentages. The bar graphs
represent GDP affected by earth-
quakes with return periods of 10
years (white) and 100 years (black).
The horizontal line across the bars
also shows the annual average of
GDP affected by earthquakes.
When an earthquake has a 10-year
return period, it means the prob-
ability of occurrence of an earth-
quake of that magnitude or greater
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year
earthquake has a probability of
occurrence of 1 percent per year.
This means that over a long period
of time, an earthquake of that mag-
nitude will, on average, occur once
every 100 years. It does not mean
a 100-year earthquake will occur
exactly once every 100 years. In
fact, it is possible for an earthquake
of any return period to occur more
EARTHQUAKE EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA)
RISK PROFILES
than once in the same year, or to
appear in consecutive years, or not
to happen at all over a long period
of time.
If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
same height, then the impact of a
10-year event is as large as that of a
KAZA K H S TA N
100-year event, and the annual aver-
age of affected GDP is dominated by
events that happen relatively fre-
quently. If the impact of a 100-year
event is much greater than that of
a 10-year event, then less frequent
events make larger contributions to Karakalpakstan
the annual average of affected GDP.
Thus, even if a province’s annual Tashkent
KYRGYZ
affected GDP seems small, less fre- Tashkent City
Navoiy REPUBLIC
quent and more intense events can
still have large impacts.
Khorezm Tashkent
The annual average population af- Namangan
Andijan
fected by earthquakes in Uzbekistan
Jizzakh Sirdarya
is about 1 million and the annual Bukhara
Fergana
average affected GDP $2 billion. The Samarkand
T U R K M E N I S TA N
annual averages of fatalities and CHINA
capital losses caused by earthquakes TA J I K I S TA N
are about 200 and about $900 Kashkadarya
million, respectively. The fatalities
Surkhandarya
and capital losses caused by more
Affected GDP (%) for
intense, less frequent events can 10 and 100-year return periods
be substantially larger than the
One block = 10% 100
annual averages. For example, an A F G H A N I S TA N
earthquake with a 0.4 percent
50 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)
annual probability of occurrence (a ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
Annual average 20
250-year return period event) could
cause about 10,000 fatalities and
$10 billion in capital loss (about 20 10-year 100-year
8
percent of GDP).
INDIA
PA K I S TA N
129
Uzbekistan EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA)
RISK PROFILES

130
EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE
ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES

0
n 20
Sam

anga

40
Ka

Bukh
arka 0
sh he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential

ana
ka 00
Nam
da 2 Ta 3 0

ara
nd

r na sh nd for greatest annual average capital losses and highest

Ferg
4

ya a ke
4 rg nt ka
ar

9
0 Fe 10 m annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
Sa
an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
Navoiy 50 Andijan 100 Tashkent city 10 Namangan 20 loss occurs in Namangan, which is not surprising, given the
Ta economic importance of the province.
0 80 shke Su
n t6 n 20 rkh
ke tc ya an
ar
Surk

ity da
0

sh
80

iy 20

And
ad rya
kh 7

Ta sh
k
20
Ka
hand

ijan
Navo
Jizza

20
arya

FLOOD EARTHQUAKE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080

40 250
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080
T he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for
varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
35 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected
Affected GDP (billions of $)

200 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts

30
2080 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
25 150 2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if
20 Uzbekistan had experienced a 100-year return period
100 flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an
15
estimated $4 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP
10 from the same type of event would range from about $20
50
2015 5 2015
billion to about $30 billion. If Uzbekistan had experienced a
250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would
10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 have been about $20 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from
Return period (years) Return period (years) the same type of event would range from about $100 billion
10 2 1 0.4 10 2 1 0.4 to about $200 billion, due to population growth, urbaniza-
Probability (%) Probability (%) tion, and the increase in exposed assets.

All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database
(National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K; and J. Daniell and A. Schaefer, “Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling,” final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2013 US$. More in-
formation on the data and context can be found in the full publication, Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes, at www.gfdrr.org/publications, or by contacting Joaquin Toro (jtoro@worldbank.org) or Dr. Alanna Simpson (asimpson1@worldbank.org). Please see the full publication
for the complete disclaimer and limitations on methodology. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed.