Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Danila Medvedev
danila.medvedev@mail.ru
Lappeenranta
2003
I. Introduction
• Abre los ojos (Open Your Eyes), 1997 [2] — The main
character in this movie signed a contract with a cryonics
company. After his death his body was frozen and his
mind placed into a computer simulation. In this story, the
personalities of all humans are simulated only to the extent
necessary for their interactions with the main character.
For example, one of the secondary characters, a
psychiatrist, has two daughters, but does not know their
names.
• Dark City, 1998 [13] — This movie was also a mystery
thriller, hence it showed a more mystical picture of the
world and never explained the mechanism of the
simulation. However, it led to the Matrix and The
Thirteenth Floor films, which developed the idea of world
simulation more rigorously and in more details.
• The Matrix, 1999[2] [8] — In this film most of the humans are
connected to the large computer simulation (the Matrix)
from birth, but they do not know about it, unless someone
from outside the simulation can tell them the truth. The
machines that run the simulation can make arbitrary
changes to the simulation in real-time. Humans from the
real world can be inserted into the simulation as new
people. The Matrix became the first widely known film
about simulation and it introduced many people to the
ideas of simulated realities for the first time.
• The Thirteenth Floor, 1999 [13] — This movie introduced the
idea of nested simulations and travel from one level to
another. A simulation of the early 20th century city is
developed in a computer company (in the end of 20th
century). It turns out later that the real world is in fact also
a simulation, run from what appears to be 21st or 22nd
century. Characters can enter the simulation (or exit it)
only by being inserted into the body of existing human.
• Vanilla Sky, 2001 [15] — This is an American remake of
Abre lost ojos. The story has not changed much and basic
scientific and philosophical premises behind the story are
also the same.
An interesting theme that is present in The Thirteenth Floor, The
Matrix and Dark City is the idea of limited size of the simulated
world and of people coming to the literal end of the world (also
happens in The Truman Show, 1998) and perceiving the limits.
Definitions
Necessary assumptions
Infinite universes
• The posthuman stage will only start after most of the human
civilisations on different planets meet together (see below
the arguments about posthuman stage being in the far
future). This allows a larger number of real humans than in
the case of one real civilisation and the same number of
simulated realities.
• Depending on the nature of the multiple universes, the
difference between civilisations simulated in different
universes might be negligible (see below arguments about
identical people in simulations), while the difference
between real civilisations in different universes is large
enough. By considering several simulations to be just
instances of the same one we reduce the number of
simulated humans. Real humans, on the other hand, are
still different in different universes.
Another aspect of using average values that Bostrom ignores is
that different civilisations are in different positions. If additional
assumptions listed above are valid (especially the one about
decreasing complexity of nested simulations), then those
civilisations that are “deeply” simulated (simulated in a
simulation in a simulation etc.) are less likely to reach a
posthuman stage (and therefore run simulations themselves). In
this case, using an average value of fP is misleading, because
there can be observable signs in the world indicating that the
civilisation is likely to be deeply simulated. We can speculate
that our ability to think about creating simulations is an
indicator that we are closer to reality (how close and whether we
actually are in reality is, of course, uncertain). Thisisanargument
(althoughnotadecidingone) againstindifferenceprinciple.
Number of individuals
Identical people
In his paper, Bostrom does not mention any reasons for running
an ancestor simulation, taking the desire to do it for granted.
This lack of specific reasons given for running a simulation
means that currently no specific requirements for the
simulations are known. Thus it is entirely possible a posthuman
civilisation that will run many simulations will use identical
people for these simulations.
Non-conscious people
and
Therefore the value of fsim, calculated using the formula (1), will
be in most cases extremely close to 0.5, which obviously
contradicts Bostrom’s conclusions.
(2)
(3)
(4)
Circular reasoning
One may object to this by saying that even if we do not run any
simulations today, there might be simulations run in the future
and they must be accounted for. Clearly such argument is
without merit. Taking into account future simulation not only
makes no sense (if we assume that we live in a real world, the
simulation argument is useless), but also violates several
important philosophical and physical principles. First, it violates
the causality rules by allowing future events to affect our present
world. Second, it ignores the fact that uncertainty principle in
the quantum mechanics makes future effectively non-
deterministic and it is impossible, neither practically, nor in
theory to predict what simulations will be run by us in the
future.
Observational bias
In trying to guess the nature of the metaverse there is significant
inherent observational bias that must be accounted for. The
problem of the simulation argument is that many assumptions
are made about the metaverse and all simulations based on our
present experience and the qualities of our civilisation.
Unscientific approach
Extinction
VII.Conclusion
Based on the analysis done in this paper, we can infer that the
simulation argument is incorrect. It seems to be impossible to
avoid the logical errors made by Bostrom. In addition, there are
some reasons to concede that certain qualities of our
civilisations point to our existence in reality.