Global Demography

Demography is the science of population. Demographers work to understand

population dynamics by investigating the three main demographic processes which are:
birth, migration and aging (including death).

Why Demography Matters

Global Population:
1995 – 2 billion
2005 – 6.5 billion

Cohen (2008) believed that by 2050 there will be 9 billion people on the planet, addition
of over 50 million per year. But after the increase on population, the world will
experience a global decline of population – slower growth, increasing decline, older
people and more urban living.

Demographic change caught the interest of people about demography and became
the popular subject of political debates in developed countries who experienced birth
rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per women. At the same time, life
expectancy has been rising considerably and continues to rise which sometimes called
“the aging of societies”.
Demography is not only concern with birth rate, mortality and migration but it actually
gives information to people to plan their future investments and services.

Destiny vs. Choice

Demography is not a destiny.

“There is no such thing as destiny. We shape our own lives.” – Giacomo Casanova

The future of our population will be at the hands of the people around the globe.

The study of demography has far too long been dominated by pessimism and inhuman,
simplistic accounting.
Throughout history, demography has been a part in understanding global changes,
economic greatness and downfall, migration, social/cultural diversity and
dynamism.

The mirror image of countries with high population growth (ex: Africa) are countries with
falling population and considered as countries in transition that created forceful
imperative care about the development prospects in terms of social safety nets,
employment conditions, health care needs and a host of other issues.
Developed countries continue to decline in terms of fertility which resulted to great shift
from young to aging population.
Developing countries are expecting explosion due to improved nutrition, public health
infrastructure and medical care.
Imbalance weight of population of a developed + developing countries = demographic
suicide (a situation where there is a continuous imbalance between birth and death).

Germany, Japan, Italy, Russia and South Korea are considered as countries
attempting to commit demographic suicide due to excess number of death over birth.

Migration as solution to demographic suicide is being taken for consideration.

Result: Intermarriage
Pro: Growth of population mixing which may result to shaping of new society,
determining changes of identities and wiping out of the distinctiveness of the population.
Con: The possibility of losing one’s identity due to mixing.

Factors affecting the Demography of the World

According to the paper titled, “What we can and cannot learn from the history of world
population”, written by Massimo Livi-Bacci, the factors that affecting the demography of
the world are: erratic mortality and the demographic trends.
Erratic Mortality is characterised by the reform in the system of pathology which
causes a major demographic changes in the past 19th and 20th century.
The system evolved because of genetic mutation and social inheritance through
changing interaction between human, microbes, animal vectors and the environment
which create a big impact in mortality.
Ancient Regime Crisis are kinds of crisis made by man. (ex: man-made famine that hit
Ukraine-Russia, China and North Korea).

The advancement of human survival were challenged through the emergence of deadly
diseases, resiliency of the old diseases and the economic sustainability of
modern health care due to the rising costs and demographic aging.
Rebound and Adjustment of the demographic system is known as the aftermath of a
great crisis.

Examples of Rebound:
1. increases of prices of goods due to bad weather
2. a war followed by famine, epidemic and other diseases
3. increase of mortality due to dissolution of marriages because of widowhood,
fewer new marriages which results to low conception and birth

Adjustment requires time; factors which affects responses are compound and
adaptable. It could be:
1. economic in nature (advancement in technology and productivity, investment and
others)
2. demographic ( adjustment in demographic system which may lead to growth or
decline of population)
The fact that we cannot isolate one factor from the other since most of the time the two
are of mutable force and impact.
1. Fertility/Population Growth (Japan, Thailand, Caribbean Islands after European
Colonization)
2. Migration

The Five Big Demographic Trends Shaping the World

In this period of globalization, George Magnus presented a work entitled “The Age of
Aging: Global Demographics and Coping Mechanisms” which contain the five big
demographics trends shaping the world today.

1. The ratio of children to older citizens is declining

3:1 is the ratio of children to older citizens but it is still declining. By 2040,
there will be older citizens than children. By 2050, there will be twice as many
older citizens as there are children. (exceptions are China and Russia)

“The number of over-60s in the rich world is predicted to rise by 2.5 times by
2050 to 418 million, but the trajectory starts to level off in about 20 years’
time. Within this cohort, the number of people aged over 80 will rise six times
to about a 120 million. In emerging and developing world, the number over
60s will grow by more than 7 times to over 1.5 billion by 2050, and behind
this, you can see a 17-fold increase in the expected population of those aged
over 80, to about 262 million.”

2. There has been a sea-change in the nature of illness to non-

communicable diseases
One of the consequences of rapid aging and decline longevity is the sea
change in the nature of illness and disease and therefore scientific and
pharmaceutical businesses.

“I am referring, of course, to what the World Health Organization has

called the invisible epidemic of non-communicable diseases, which is now
responsible globally for about 60% of deaths and nearly half of the actual
and effective life year due to disability.”

“By 2030, depression is expected to become the highest single cause of

disability affected life years, which is a composite measure of years of life
lost to premature death and disability. The arrows show a complete
turnaround in the principal burden of disease.”

3. The speed of aging is rising rapidly in emerging economies.

The emerging markets have far less time to build the financial and social
security system to deal with consequences of an aging and rising old age
dependency.

“It’s this that gives that rise to the common mantra of ‘growing old before
you get rich’.”

4. Old age dependency ratio is rising rapidly in Japan, European

countries, but at a slower pace in Anglo Saxon countries.
The rising dependence of those over 65 on the working age population is
referred to as the old age dependency ratio. This is a product of weak
fertility and rising longevity. The countries like Germany, Spain, Japan and
Italy is called ‘hares’ because of the rapid progression of old age
 dependency. On the other hand, the Anglo-Saxon economies countries
like Sweden and France are called ‘tortoises’ by comparison. India is a
“demographic darling” because one-third of its population is aged under
14, and its working age population will grow in the next 20 years.

5. It’s getting harder to exploit demographic dividend.

This is a phase that countries go through when child dependency is falling
and the working age population is expanding. Typically, this phase comes
with stronger trends in incomes, savings, investment and technical
programs. This is where other emerging markets countries