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Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636

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A stochastic method for stand-alone photovoltaic system sizing

Claudia Valéria Távora Cabral a, Delly Oliveira Filho a,*, Antônia Sônia Alves C. Diniz b,
José Helvecio Martins a, Olga Moraes Toledo a, Lauro de Vilhena B. Machado Neto b
a
Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Vicßosa, Av. P. H. Rolfs, s/n. 36570-000 Vicßosa, Minas Gerais, Brazil
b
Group of Studies in Energy – GREEN Solar, Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais – PUC Minas, Rua Dom José Gaspar no. 500, Prédio 03,
Sala 218 – Coracßão Eucarı́stico 30535-610 Belo Horizonte – Minas Gerais, Brazil

Received 28 October 2009; received in revised form 5 May 2010; accepted 17 June 2010
Available online 16 July 2010

Communicated by: Associate Editor Elias Stefanakos

Abstract

Photovoltaic systems utilize solar energy to generate electrical energy to meet load demands. Optimal sizing of these systems includes
the characterization of solar radiation. Solar radiation at the Earth’s surface has random characteristics and has been the focus of various
academic studies. The objective of this study was to stochastically analyze parameters involved in the sizing of photovoltaic generators
and develop a methodology for sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. Energy storage for isolated systems and solar radiation were
analyzed stochastically due to their random behavior. For the development of the methodology proposed stochastic analysis were stud-
ied including the Markov chain and beta probability density function. The obtained results were compared with those for sizing of stand–
alone using from the Sandia method (deterministic), in which the stochastic model presented more reliable values. Both models present
advantages and disadvantages, however, the stochastic one is more complex and provides more reliable and realistic results.
Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Deterministic sizing; Stochastic sizing; Solar energy; Stand-alone photovoltaic systems; Probabilistic modeling

1. Introduction Accurate sizing of photovoltaic systems is necessary to

Due to concern about the environment and depletion of
fossil fuels, more attention has been given to studies that
may lead to advances in the use of renewable energy
sources. In countries such as Germany and Spain, where
there are fixed subsidies for use of renewable energy sources,
especially solar energy, the number of installed solar sys-
tems has significantly increased. The main cause of this
growth is the reduction in photovoltaic modules cost in
recent years (Nemet, 2006). In Brazil, solar radiation maps
demonstrate the great potential available for the use of solar
energy, even more so than other countries that presently
have many more of these systems installed (Martins et al.,
2008a,b).
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 31 3899 1897; fax: +55 31 3899 2735.
E-mail address: delly@ufv.br (D.O. Filho).
improve their reliability and economical feasibility. Sizing
of stand-alone photovoltaic systems in isolated areas is
an important area of interest of many researchers, present-
ing different approaches (Arun et al., 2009; Borowy and
Salameh, 1996; Kaushika et al., 2005; Markvart et al.,
2006; Posadillo and López Luque, 2008; Shrestha and
Goel, 1998; Sidrach-de-Cardona and Mora López, 1998;
Yang et al., 2008).
Deterministic methods for system sizing utilize average
seasonal or annual values in their analyses, natural oscilla-
tions in solar radiation and load demands are not consid-
ered. A deterministic simulation model contains no
probabilistic or random components (Sandia National
Lab, 2009). Due to their random behavior, solar radiation
and load demand must be treated as static to simplify their
representation in these methods in which the output is deter-
mined from a series of inputs, and their relations to the

0038-092X/$ - see front matter Ó 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.solener.2010.06.006
 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636
Nomenclature
C overall system cost ($)
C0 system fixed costs ($)
EB(t) energy stored in batteries at time t (kWh)
EB(t-1) energy stored in batteries at time (t1) (kWh)
EBmax maximum level of energy permitted in the bat-
teries (Wh)
EBmin minimum level of energy permitted in the batter-
ies (Wh)
EG(t) energy generated by the photovoltaic array (kWh)
EL(t) load demand at time t (Wh)
EPV energy generated by the photovoltaic module
(kWh)
f(P) output power probability density function at
each of the radiation levels
I circuit output current (A)
Imp maximum power current (A)
ISC short-circuit current, (A)
KT daily clearness index (decimal)
LPS loss of power supply (decimal)
LPSP loss of power supply probability (percent)
Nbat number of batteries in the bank (decimal)
NPV number of photovoltaic modules in the array
(decimal)
P maximum power output produced by the photo-
voltaic generator at each of the radiation levels (W)
model are specified, requiring extensive computational time
(Maxwell, 1998).
Stochastic methods involve the data treatment, estima-
tion of sizing parameters, and data availability in some
senses is considered to be more complex. Many systems
have the property that given the present state, the past
states have no influence on the future. This is called the
Markov property, and the systems which present this prop-
erty are known as Markov chains (Ehnberg and Bollen,
2005).
The loss of power supply probability (LPSP) determines
the probability for which the system (photovoltaic genera-
tors and batteries) is not able to supply for the load demand.
It evaluates the performance of the system for an assumed
or known load curve (Abouzahr and Ramakumar, 1991;
Yang et al., 2007). The LPSP represents the probability of
power generated by both the battery and the photovoltaic
generator to be insufficient to attend the demand and when
the storage is depleted and its voltage has fallen below the
allowed values (Borowy and Salameh, 1996). A “zero”
LPSP means that load will be always supplied and a LPSP
value of one indicates that the energy load will never be met
by the PV stand-alone generation system. Energy is stored
in batteries when the power generated by the photovoltaic
generators is larger than that of the demand, and is utilized
when the energy provided by the modules is smaller than the
1629
PV photovoltaic
Pmed average maximum power output from the
photovoltaic generator (W)
RS series resistance (X)
S total solar irradiance on the photovoltaic
generator plane (W/m2)
Sref reference solar radiation (1000 W/m2)
T solar cell temperature (°C)
Tamb ambient temperature (°C)
Tref reference temperature of the solar cell (25 °C)
V circuit output voltage (V)
Vmp maximum power voltage (V)
Voc open circuit voltage (V)
Greek letters
a temperature coefficient of short-circuit current
at reference solar irradiance (A/°C)
am photovoltaic generator cost ($/module)
b temperature coefficient of open circuit voltage at
reference solar irradiance (V/°C)
bb battery cost ($/un)
gbat battery charging efficiency
ginv inverter efficiency
load demand. The instant battery charge ti, depends on the
battery charge in the previous instant, ti1. In order to pre-
vent overcharges and complete discharge from the bank of
batteries, a charge controller should be used. Before over-
charges can occur, the control system interrupts charging
and also disconnects the charge before complete discharge.
The capacity of the energy storage system is defined in terms
of the amount of energy which can be extracted and not the
total quantity which is stored. Charging efficiency of the
batteries is specified by the manufacturer and discharge effi-
ciency was considered to be equal to one in this work.
A comparative study between deterministic and stochas-
tic sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems was per-
formed, analyzing both the stochastic model for solar
radiation, as well as the LPSP, with the objective of verify-
ing the best method for photovoltaic system modeling. This
work also aimed to identify the involved sizing parameters
for photovoltaic systems, considering that calculation of
the optimal number of photovoltaic generators and batter-
ies is based on the LPSP.
2. Methodology
The stochastic sizing program for stand-alone photovol-
taic systems requires various variables which are utilized in
both the stochastic and deterministic analyses. For the
1630 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636
deterministic analysis, the sizing worksheets of the Sandia
National Laboratory were utilized Sandia National Lab
(2009); while in the case of the stochastic analysis, the
methodology described by Borowy and Salameh (1994,
1996) was adapted. Based on these studies and experimen-
tal setup for the stochastic sizing of stand-alone photovol-
taic systems, a comparison could be made between the two
methods, verifying the shortcomings of each of the sizing
processes.
The methodology applied for the stochastic sizing was
divided in the following parts:
(i) solar radiation: simulation model for global, diffuse,
ground reflected, sky, and direct solar radiation from
the monthly average daily global radiation data;
(ii) photovoltaic generator: calculation of average power
photovoltaic modules supply;
(iii) energy storage: calculation of battery charging and
discharging;
(iv) loss of power supply: Calculation of system reliability
by the loss of power supply probability (LPSP);
(v) sizing: optimal sizing of batteries and photovoltaic
modules based on the economical and reliability
aspects.
For the proposed stochastic sizing, the following input
parameters are needed:
(i) Equipment characteristic data provided by industry:
batteries, photovoltaic modules and inverters;
(ii) climate characterization: average temperature, solar
radiation; and
(iii) load behavior.
2.1. Solar radiation
The simulation model for global solar radiation is
introduced in this section. Borowy and Salameh (1996)
used a series of radiation data, with data recorded at
all hours of all days for a period of 30 years. Since it is
difficult to obtain such extensive meteorological data in
Brazil, monthly average daily global radiation values
derived from typical meteorological year over a period
of 20 years provided by the electrical energy Brazilian
utility CEMIG were used to generate hourly data to be
used in the simulation.
Estimation of the following parameters was done
according to Iqbal (1983) and (Duffie and Beckman
(2006): (i) the hourly global radiation on a inclined surface;
(ii) the hourly global radiation on a horizontal surface; (iii)
the daily global radiation on a horizontal surface; (iv)
hourly diffuse radiation on a horizontal surface calculated
from hourly global radiation and extraterrestrial hourly
radiation; (v) hourly sky diffuse radiation based on an
anisotropic model; and (vi) hourly ground reflected diffuse
radiation based on anisotropic reflection model.
The daily clearness index, KT, was estimated based on
Markov transition matrices (Lorenzo, 1994). This estimate
was made using historic data from many meteorological
stations spread around the world.
Each Markov matrix is associated with a range of KT
values defined by their maximum and minimum values.
Each of these intervals is divided into 10 subintervals, with
the same number of rows and columns. To generate the
values of KT, from the Markov chains, the monthly clear-
ness index was required as an input. For this purpose, cal-
culations were performed from the monthly average daily
global radiation.
The average power output from the photovoltaic mod-
ules was estimated from the solar radiation data. The beta
probability distribution function was used to describe the
radiation behavior, since it represents the best fit among
those studied for synthetic data.
2.2. Photovoltaic generator
For calculation of the average power output, it was con-
sidered that the system has a maximum power point
tracker. The manufactures provide data of voltage and cur-
rent for the photovoltaic modules at the maximum power
point, at reference temperature and radiation.
The power produced by the photovoltaic module at each
radiation level is the product of output voltage and current
(Salameh et al., 1995). In the calculation of the output
power from the photovoltaic modules, it was considered
that the maximum power would be utilized. Average power
output shown in Eq. (1), is the maximum power produced
by the photovoltaic generator at each radiation level mul-
tiplied by the power probability density function integrated
for the time interval considered.
Z P max;max
P Avg ¼ P f ðP Þ dP ð1Þ
P min;max
The photovoltaic generator output current calculation
was done considering the mathematic model used to
describe the solar cell based on its one-diode model equiv-
alent circuit (Villalva et al., 2009).
Based on the model, an equation could be deduced for
the characterization of the photovoltaic generator perfor-
mance, relating voltage, current, radiation and temperature
(Salameh et al., 1995). Eq. (2) shows the current produced
by the photovoltaic generator. Eqs. (3)–(8) provide further
details of the relationships among the variables and param-
eters that appear in Eq. (2).
    
V  DV
I ¼ I SC 1  C 1 exp  1 þ DI ð2Þ
C 2 V oc
V mp =V oc  1
C2 ¼ ð3Þ
lnð1  I mp =I SC Þ
   
I mp V mp
C1 ¼ 1  exp  ð4Þ
I SC C 2 V oc
 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636
   
S S
DI ¼ a DT þ  1 I SC ð5Þ
S ref S ref
DV ¼ b DT  RS DI ð6Þ
DT ¼ T  T ref ð7Þ
T ¼ T amb þ 0:02S ð8Þ
Using Eq. (1), the monthly average hourly power output
from the photovoltaic module could be calculated. The
stand-alone photovoltaic system sizing considers not only
the power generated on the photovoltaic modules but the
energy storage capacity in the batteries.
Eq. (9) shows the energy generated by the photovoltaic
array (EG(t)) at time t.
EGðtÞ ¼ N PV EPVðtÞ ð9Þ
2.3. Energy storage
Since it was assumed that the battery charging efficiency
is equal to that reported by the manufacturer and the dis-
charge efficiency was equal to one (100%), two possibilities
were considered to express the energy storage in the battery
during a period of t hours: (i) the amount of energy gener-
ated by the photovoltaic generator exceeds the load
demand, and (ii) the energy demands of the load are
greater than the available amount of generated energy. In
the second case, the battery will be discharged to meet
the necessary load demands.
The inverter was evaluated in terms of peak load
demand, and its efficiency, ginv, is a function of the DC
input voltage and the load type. This methodology consid-
ers the variation of the inverter efficiency according to the
load demand.
The battery capacity is defined as a function of the
amount of energy that can be extracted and not the amount
stored in a given time interval (Borowy and Salameh,
1996). The amount of energy stored in the battery during
the period of t hours, should be between the maximum
and minimum allowed for the energy levels. This procedure
protects the battery from damage and avoids drastic reduc-
tion of its life cycle.
2.3.1. Case 1: charging of the batteries
In this case, energy generated by the photovoltaic array
exceeds that of the load demand. From Eq. (10) it can
observed that the amount of stored energy stored in the
batteries is the excess energy during the period of t hours
(Borowy and Salameh, 1996).
 
EGðtÞ  ELðtÞ
EBðtÞ ¼ EBðt1Þ þ gbat ð10Þ
ginv
2.3.2. Case 2: discharging of the batteries
In this case, the load demand is greater than the avail-
able amount of generated energy. It is shown that the
amount of energy discharge from the batteries can be
1631
calculated from Eq. (11), since a portion of the stored
energy is required to meet the energy needs of the load
(Borowy and Salameh, 1996).
 
ELðtÞ
EBðtÞ ¼ EBðt1Þ   EGðtÞ ð11Þ
ginv
The amount of energy stored in the batteries at time t is
subject to restriction (Borowy and Salameh, 1996) given by
Eq. (12). This restriction means that the batteries will not
be overcharged or completely discharged to prevent them
from being damaged.
EBmin 6 EBðtÞ 6 EBmax ð12Þ
After the calculations of the solar radiation, power gen-
erated, and energy storage, reliability should be calculated
in order to evaluate the loss of power supply.
2.4. Loss of power supply
When energy generated by the photovoltaic modules
and energy stored in the batteries is insufficient to meet
the demands of the system at time t, this deficit is known
as the loss of power supply (LPS) and is expressed as Eq.
(13), (Borowy and Salameh, 1996). The loss of power sup-
ply probability (LPSP) function was then determined for a
given time frame as calculated in Eq. (14).
LPSðtÞ ¼ ELðtÞ  ðEGðtÞ þ EBðt1Þ  EBmin Þginv ð13Þ
PT
LPSðtÞ
LPSP ¼ Pt¼1 T ð14Þ
t¼1 E LðtÞ
The number of photovoltaic modules and batteries
needed for a determined LPSP, for energy generation and
storage, can now be analyzed for each hour of a typical
day in each month based on previous calculations. Stochas-
tic sizing includes economical aspects that can be per-
formed considered the desired LPSP.
2.5. Sizing
For a given LPSP there are several suitable combina-
tions of number of batteries and photovoltaic modules.
The procedure is schematically shown in Fig. 1. The simu-
lation calculated the monthly and annual LPSP for a given
combination of number of batteries (Nbat) and photovol-
taic modules (NPV). Optimal sizing is a function of eco-
nomical analysis.
It is necessary to determine the best combination of Nbat
and NPV while maintaining a minimum cost. The function
that describes this purpose is given by (Borowy and
Salameh, 1996):
C ¼ am N PV þ bb N bat þ C 0 ð15Þ
The optimal solution of Eq. (15) is given by:
@N PV b
¼ b ð16Þ
@N bat am
1632 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636

Nbat = Nbat + 1 No

Input data: Batcap

Nbatmax; Npvmax Nbat<=Nbatmax Yes Npv = Npvmin Npv <= Npvmax A
Nbatmin; Npvmin;

Yes
No

B t=1

LPSP(Nbat,Npv)=
∑ LPS(t) Yes
Are data
calculated for all No t = t+1 EG(t) calculation
∑ EL(t) hours?

EL(t)
Save Equation (22) Equation (20) No EG(t) >=
ninv

Yes

EB(t) = EB(t)<=(1-Pdbat)
Npv=Npv+1
(1-Pdbat)Batcap Nbat)
Yes BatcapNbat
Equation (19)

No

A B LPS(t) = 0 No EB(t)>=Batcap Nbat Yes EB(t)=Batcap Nbat

Fig. 1. Simplified flowchart for the calculation of the LPSP in stand-alone photovoltaic systems.

The minimum cost solution was calculated based on the
life cycle analysis of the present value. Replacement of the
batteries was planned when their lives ended.
2.6. Validation
Validation was performed for each of the separate parts
of the stochastically sized stand-alone photovoltaic system.
This was done at the Green Laboratory at the Pontifical
Catholic University of Minas Gerais (PUCMINAS) and
at the Energy Laboratory of the Agricultural Engineering
Department of the Federal University of Vicßosa (UFV),
both in Brazil.
A stand-alone photovoltaic system prototype consisted
of six photovoltaic modules, six batteries, one load control-
ler and one sinusoidal inverter and the load. The load and
demand characteristics were: (i) load: eight 32 W fluores-
cent lamps and four 16 W fluorescent lamps; (ii) operation:
5 days a week (Monday–Friday), daily utilization of 4 h
(6:00–10:00 pm); and (iii) voltage: 24 V. The stand-alone
photovoltaic system was assembled at the Green Labora-
tory, at latitude of 19°550 5700 South and longitude of
43°560 3200 West, with surface albedo of 74%.
 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636 1633

The photovoltaic system considered had the following

characteristics: (i) photovoltaic modules with 100 W and
12 V nominal voltage, each; (ii) 85 Ah batteries nominal
capacity, 0.95 discharge efficiency, maximum depth of dis-
charge (DOD) of 0.8 and 12 V nominal voltage; (iii)
1000 W inverter with a nominal 24 V DC, 120 V AC,
60 Hz and its efficiency was allowed to vary with the load
since its characteristic efficiency curve was provided.
Attached to the photovoltaic modules, two pyranome-
ters were installed, one at the horizontal position and one
at the module’s plane. The global radiation data were mea-
sured each minute and compared with the simulation data.
Other system parameters measured were: output voltage
and current of the modules, batteries, and inverter. These
data acquisitions were done using an automated system
(PCI-DAS 1001 board) and processed by the LabviewÒ
program. Fig. 2. Measured and simulated data of monthly average hourly
irradiance incident on an inclined plane on September 2005.
In order to compare the simulated and real data, a sta-
tistic analysis was performed by using the root mean square
error, mean bias error and correlation coefficient.

3. Results and discussion

A comparison between the average measured and simu-

lated monthly average daily global radiation on an inclined
plane (module plane) was performed for the month of Sep-
tember 2005, located at Belo Horizonte, Brazil (Fig. 2). The
statistic analysis of these data showed: (i) mean bias error
of 0.044; (ii) root mean square error of 0.118 and (iii) cor-
relation coefficient of 0.996.
Another evaluation was the assessment of measured and
simulated output power for the photovoltaic modules
(Fig. 3). The statistic analysis of these data was also per-
formed and the results were: (i) mean bias error of
0.034; (ii) root mean square error of 0.070 and (iii) corre-
lation coefficient of 0.998.
The monthly average hourly storage energy in the bat-
teries was measured for one month and it was supposed
that the batteries started completely full and the charge effi-
ciency was considered to be 0.9 and the discharge efficiency
is 1.0. Fig. 4 shows the comparison among measured and
simulated results for monthly average hourly storage
energy. The analysis shows a: (i) mean bias error of
0.018; (ii) root mean square error of 0.141 and (iii) corre-
lation coefficient of 0.965.
Once sure that the measured and simulated data pre-
sented a correlation greater than 0.960, which is considered
acceptable, a simulation was performed for the prototype
stochastic sizing of a stand-alone photovoltaic system to
be installed at the research laboratory.
The Sandia sizing method (deterministic method) calcu-
lated a system demand of 8 PV modules and eight batteries
for the considered load. For the same load, the stochastic
sizing methodology proposed was simulated with the results
of the deterministic sizing. The simulation shows the deter-
ministic method to be oversized. This can be verified due to
Fig. 3. Measured and simulated monthly average hourly data of power
supplied by the photovoltaic generator.
the fact that the batteries were nearly always fully charged
when simulating a complete year. Fig. 5 presents the simu-
lation for operation (monthly average hourly) of the photo-
voltaic generators and batteries along 1 year. The green and
red lines on the graph of energy stored in the batteries are
the maximum and minimum energy permitted in the battery
bank, respectively. The calculated LPSP for this number of
photovoltaic generators and batteries is 0.00% in this case,
confirming over sizing of the deterministic method. If a
LPSP of 0.48% was considered (loss of energy for 2 days
per year), the number of modules and batteries required
were 5 and 3, respectively. This demonstrates that the sys-
tem, using the deterministic sizing, was truly is oversized.
Even if considering an LPSP of 0%, the number of photo-
voltaic generators and batteries could be as low as 5 and
4, respectively. These figures are the results found in the sto-
chastic method.
Fig. 6 shows the energy storage system (four batteries)
and photovoltaic array (five PV modules) functioning over
1634 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636

Analysis of the involved sizing parameters for the stand-

alone photovoltaic system, at both the deterministic level
(Sandia method) and stochastic level (developed model),
made this comparison possible. Various observations
should be made, including:

(a) Deterministic models used simple analytical equa-

Fig. 4. Simulated and measured data for the energy storage in the battery
bank during 1 month, considering a charge efficiency of 0.90 and a
discharge efficiency of 1.00.
the period of 1 year. It was observed that the batteries did
not suffer complete discharge and the load was still
attended during the entire simulation period (LPSP = 0%).
As one may observe, the designer could choose the
LPSP that he/she desires and the calculation will inform
the optimal number of batteries and photovoltaic genera-
tors with minimum cost. This calculation may also be done
in order to calculate the LPSP for a given number of bat-
teries and modules chosen by the designer.
tions to predict operation of the photovoltaic sys-
tems, that is, it does not consider their stochastic
behavior. Their reliability is limited to the consis-
tency of the hourly, daily or monthly data used, pre-
senting equations which are simpler to work with
and simulate. On the other hand, stochastic methods
are more complex and involve statistical processing
which requires greater computational time for their
simulation but are more reliable. In general, solar
radiation levels, load demand and battery state of
charge are better characterized by a stochastic
description.
(b) Often when working with stochastic models, a series
of historical data of the studied event are needed
and many times are not available at the majority of
meteorological stations, depending on their complex-
ity. This problem is not encountered with determinis-
tic models since they use average values.
(c) Deterministic methods generally consider the capac-
ity of the storage system as determined by the consec-
utive number of days in which the demand can be met
using only the storage system, without considering
possible provisions from the photovoltaic generators.
In stochastic methods, all possible uses for energy

Fig. 5. Simulation of system operation (8 PV modules and eight batteries) during a period of 1 year for the analyzed stand-alone photovoltaic system: (a)
PV power supply (W); (0b) available energy in the batteries (Wh).
 C.V.T. Cabral et al. / Solar Energy 84 (2010) 1628–1636
Fig. 6. Simulation of system operation (five modules and four batteries) during the period of 1 year for the analyzed stand-alone photovoltaic system: (a)
PV power supply (W); (b) available energy in the batteries (Wh).
provided by the generator are considered for the
charging of the storage system and direct use by the
consumer.
(d) For stochastic sizing, battery charge and solar radia-
tion for each state of the system are analyzed, as in
the model which used the Markov chain, developed
by Safie (1989). This model identifies the states in
which the load demands are not satisfied. In deter-
ministic sizing, battery performance is not analyzed
during operation.
(e) Stochastic sizing predicts system operation better
than the deterministic method, being more realistic
and, as a consequence, more often economically
feasible.
4. Conclusions
This work portrayed the study of parameters involved in
the stochastic sizing of stand-alone photovoltaic systems. A
stochastic program was developed for the calculation of
photovoltaic generators and batteries necessary for a given
load. Comparisons were made between the results calculated
in this study and those of Sandia deterministic method. It
was verified that the best method for photovoltaic sizing
was the stochastic method, since the generated results are
more economical and better forecasted. It was demonstrated
that for a determined loss of power supply probability, dif-
ferent combinations of modules and batteries can be found
to meet the load demand. Both methods showed advantages
and disadvantages, forcing the designer to choose a more
appropriate model for the available knowledge, data, time
and equipment. Preference is given to the stochastic model
due to its ability to better portray the operation of the pho-
1635
tovoltaic system. The number of modules and batteries is
linked to the location in which the system will be installed,
load profile and desired reliability.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Energy Company of
Minas Gerais, Brazil, (CEMIG) and Brazilian National
Electrical Energy Agency (ANEEL) for their financial
support.
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