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Canada
Federal Voting Intentions
10th October 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of With 20 years of political experience in all three
a survey conducted between October 7th to 9th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 2309 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is Research has provided accurate snapshots of
intended to represent the voting population of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
Canada. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
Capitales Médias. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The sampling frame was derived from both is a member of the World Association for Public
a national telephone directory compiled by Opinion Research and meets international and
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was CONTACT INFORMATION
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian In Ottawa:
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, Quito Maggi, President
respondents were asked the additional question quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
of what region of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.04% and is Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
10th October (Ottawa, ON) – Public support for the New Democratic Party has increased in
the wake of Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Monday’s English leaders’ debate.
“Both the Conservatives and the Liberals have been in decline for the last seven days in our
daily tracker, and the beneficiaries have been the NDP and the Bloc in Quebec,” said Quito
Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “This remains a very close election with
Canadians seemingly disillusioned with both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer.”
Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives with Andrew Scheer at the helm have
32.2% (-1.8% since Mainstreet’s last public release at the beginning of the election), while the
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 30.2% (-7.3%). The NDP with Jagmeet Singh as leader
has 15.1% (+6.7%) and the Green Party led by Elizabeth May come in with 9.8% (-1%). The
People’s Party with Maxime Bernier has 4% (-0.6%). The Bloc Quebecois with Yves-Francois
Blanchet as leader has 7.2% nationally but has 30.8% support in Quebec.
“The only thing that is clear is that neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives are going to
win a majority if the election were held today,” continued Maggi. “Not even the regional
breakouts would give a clear indication of who win the most seats, but it is looking more and
more like a minority with the election only 11 days away.”
“The election is entering its final act as Canadians head into the Thanksgiving weekend where
the election will no doubt be a topic of discussion around the dinner table,” concluded Maggi.
“It would not be surprising if this election delivers one final twist before the end.”
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8.4%
1.1%
3.6%
27.8%
8.6%
6.8%
All Voters
13.8%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
29.9%
11% 1.6%
4%
Liberals Conservatives
1.2%
9.8% NDP Bloc Québécois Greens
3.5%
People's Party Another Party Undecided
30.2%
34.9%
5.7%
7.2%
3%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
9.1%
15.1%
31.6%
32.2%
Liberals Conservatives
Greens People's Party NDP Bloc Québécois
Another Party Undecided Greens
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.
At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize
the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as
evenly as possible across the field period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.
The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.
The contact rates are as follows: total attempts: 50950, those participating: 15039 (29.5%),
those refused: 35605 (69.9%), those saying they are ineligible: 306 (0.6%)
In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.