Risk Management (CSM - 735)

Fall Semester - 2018

Mid Term Assignment

“Preliminary Risk Analysis”

Group Details

Sr. No. Student Name Student ID

1. Megha Jariwala 300982520
2. Yogeshbhai Amin 300983367
3. Nikunj Panchal 300978765
4. Jay Rami 300988536

Submitted To:
Prof. Daniela Aldea
Centennial College

Submission Date:
November 6, 2018
Scenario

Toronto City Council is about to make another decision on the future of the Gardiner
Expressway, Eastern Section (from Jarvis Street to the Don River and Don Valley Expressway).

As a Construction Manager you are required to prepare a PRELIMINARY RISK ANALYSIS for
the options that are being considered.

Option 1: Maintain the elevated expressway and connections as they exist now. Continue with
ongoing repairs.
Option 2: Eliminate the expressway and create a new, wider road at ground level.
Option 3: Hybrid solution with reduced elevated section and increased road capacity at ground
level.
 Preliminary Risk Analysis

An Impact and Probability table in general for all listed risks

Table - 1 Impact probability Scale

Weight Impact Probability

1 Insignificant Rare

2 Minor Unlikely

3 Moderate Possible

4 Major Likely

5 Critical Almost certain

 Option - 1
Maintain the elevated expressway and connections as they exist now. Continue
with ongoing repairs.

The following are the listed probable risks that can be considered while maintaining the existing
elevated expressway and connections with ongoing repairs:

1. Uncertain Working Conditions: There could be possible uncertainty in the working

schedule for maintenance work due to the availability of express way roads and
connections, water/air/soil pollution pre - existing or arising from work, uncertain weather
conditions, incorrect estimates and cost overruns etc. Thus all these factors could
possibly be considered in this risk.

2. Traffic Risks: This risk may include the possibility of increase in maintenance work due
to the volume of traffic which may accelerate the actual maintenance costs higher than
anticipated and in turn will increase the overall project cost.

3. Accident Risks: There could be an increase in the accident rate on expressway due to
ongoing maintenance work on highway which may cause serious injuries amongst the
drivers or may even result in death of a person. The possibility of labor accidents can
also be added to this risk which may occur due to lack of safety practices followed on
site and use of safety equipment by onsite workers.

4. Storage Risks: The maintenance work may also require a storage site for the materials
and equipment that are being used in the maintenance work and the risk of unavailability
of sufficient storage space could be considered in such risks where enough space won’t
be available to store the materials and equipment.
 Table - 2 Impact and probability scale for listed risks

Sr. No. RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY

A Uncertain 3 3
working
condition

B Traffic risk 5 4

C Accident risk 4 4

D Storage risk 5 2
 Table - 3 Risk Matrix analysis for listed risks

Probability

Impact Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Critical

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Rare
(1)

Unlikely Storage risk

(2)

Possible Uncertain
(3) working
condition

Likely Accident risk

(4)

Almost Traffic risk

certain
(5)
 Option - 2
Eliminate the expressway and create a new, wider road at ground level.

The following are the risks that are identified in eliminating the entire expressway and
constructing a wider road at ground level.

1. Design Risks: The design risks may include the following risks: Feasibility approvals
and consent with State responsibility, Detailed design approvals and consents, Delays in
working drawings that are to be used on site for construction, possible changes in design
and construction standards, etc.

2. Site Risks: The site risks may include the following types of risks: Acquisition of land
within right of way, obtaining consent to use additional land, procuring fill sites and other
offsite land required, site access risks, site security, undisclosed latent defects etc.

3. Legal Formalities risks: The legal formalities may include the following types of risks:
Quality assurance and quality control, achieving construction standards and
specifications, patent infringement, construction security (Bonding requirements),
workmen’s liens, workplace health and safety practices training requirements etc.

4. Site Security risks: This risks may include the following: Cultural/archaeological/
heritage, Environmental, Geotechnical and ground/soil conditions, Past mine
workings,etc.

5. Underperformance caused by utilities: This risk can involve the inefficiency of the
utilities for construction work that may result in poor production rate of work and may
cause underperformance of overall project work which ultimately affects the performance
payment and may delay the project schedule.

6. Financial Risks: This may include certain market risks such as: Base interest rates to
financial close, Interest spread risk to financial close, currency fluctuations, Inflation on
construction, operation and maintenance costs etc.

7. Accident Risks: As mentioned above there could be a possible increase in the overall
accident rate due to ongoing construction work which may result in serious injuries and
death of a person and on site accident risks can also be considered in accident risks.

8. Delays due to change in Zoning regulations: This may be considered as a very

serious risks as the change in zoning regulations during construction may seriously
affect the overall design, construction cost, time and many other aspects of the project.
 Table - 4 Impact and probability scale for listed risks

Sr. No. RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY

A Design Risk 3 3

B Site Risk 5 3

C Legal Formalities 4 2

D Site Security 2 5

E Underperformance 5 4
due to less utilities

F Financial Risk 4 4

G Accidents 5 5

H Delay due to rule 5 1

change in zoning
 Table - 5 Risk Matrix analysis for listed risks

Probability

Impact Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Critical

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Rare Delay due to rule

(1) change in zoning

Unlikely Site
(2) Security

Possible Design
(3) Risk

Likely Legal Financial Risk

(4) Formalities

Almost Site Risk Underperformance Accidents

certain due to less utilities
(5)
 Option - 3
Hybrid solution with reduced elevated section and increased road capacity at
ground level.

The following are the risks considered in Hybrid solution:

1. Design detail approval: Application for detailed building approvals from regulatory
authority-may be local or regional authority unless legislation retains consents for
State,Drawings required for construction on site,Changes in design and construction
standards during the Construction Period,

2. Working drawings:

3. Operational risk: The following are the operational risk involved in the hybrid
solution:Increased maintenance due to traffic volume,Incorrect estimates and cost
overruns,Actual operating and maintenance costs higher than anticipated,Water/air/soil
pollution
 Table - 6 Impact and probability scale for listed risks

SR No RISK IMPACT PROBABILITY

A Design Detail 4 1
Approval

B Working 3 4
drawings
problem

C Operational risk 4 2

D Traffic risk 5 5

E Labour risk 5 3

F Off road 5 4
accident
 Table - 7 Risk Matrix analysis for listed risks
Probability

Impact Insignific Minor Moder Major Critic

ant (2) ate (4) al
(1) (3) (5)

Rare
(1)

Unlikel
y
(2)

Possible Working
(3) drawings
problem

Likely Design Operational Off road

(4) Detail risk accident
Approval

Almost Labour risk Traffic risk

certain
(5)
References:

http://roadsafetyatwork.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Hazard-ID-and-risk-assessment-
web-content-V5-Clean-Feb-16-16.pdf

www.fleetsafe.org/pool/4%20fleet%20risk%20assessment%20process.doc

http://santafempo.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/FHWA+-
+Risk+Assessment+and+Allocation.pdf