Case Study

Episodic Change Analysis of the Annual Flood Peak Time

Series for a Flood Insurance Study
Momcilo Markus1; H. Vernon Knapp2; Amanda Flegel3; Sally McConkey4; and Wilbert O. Thomas5
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Abstract: Decreasing annual maximum flood peaks on the rivers and streams in the Wisconsin driftless area have been reported in recent
studies. Various explanations have been offered, generally suggesting different episodes or change points separating the early periods of
higher peak flows from the more recent lower peak flows. The present research used two statistical tests to detect a change point in annual
flood peaks at Freeport on the Pecatonica River for the period 1914–2008. Both tests indicated that the most significant change occurred in
1954. Next, to find an explanation for the decreasing peaks, this research carried out a seasonal analysis of flood timing. The decrease in
winter flood peaks was partly explained by the decrease in snow depth and the increase in winter temperature, providing less favorable
conditions for winter flooding. In turn, the decrease in winter peak flows made once smaller summer peak flows more dominant in recent
years, causing the shift in flood timing. Similar analysis showed a significant degree of resemblance between the Pecatonica River and several
streams in its vicinity. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000604. © 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
CE Database subject headings: Flood frequency; Climate change; Federal agencies; Insurance; Wisconsin.
Author keywords: Flood frequency; Trend; Climate change; Kendal-Tau test; T-test; FEMA; National Floodplain Insurance Program
(NFIP); Pecatonica River.

Introduction Pecatonica River in Stephenson County (FEMA 1982a, 1982b,

The National Floodplain Insurance Program (NFIP) floodplain
management regulations in the United States, administered by
the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and imple-
mented by local jurisdictions, rely on 1% annual chance exceed-
ance flood events, i.e., the base flood, also referred to as the 1%
flood. The base flood values and their spatial extent of inundation
shown on floodplain maps need to be updated as conditions
change, whether due to land-use development, hydraulic altera-
tions, long-term hydrologic variability, hydrologic reassessment,
or climate change.
The hydrologic modeling presented in this study was a part
of a flood study and mapping project with the goal of providing
10, 2, 1, and 0.2% peak discharges for the Pecatonica River within
Stephenson County in northwestern Illinois (Fig. 1) for inclusion in
the FEMA Flood Insurance Study and Digital Flood Insurance Rate
Maps. The results from the previous hydrologic studies (U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development 1976) were used
to determine the current FEMA effective flood profile for the
1
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, Univ. of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820-7463 (corresponding
author). E-mail: mmarkus@illinois.edu
2
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, Univ. of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820-7463.
3
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, Univ. of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820-7463.
4
Illinois State Water Survey, Prairie Research Institute, Univ. of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820-7463.
5
Michael Baker Corporation, 9400 Innovation Dr., No. 110, Manassas,
VA 20110.
Note. This manuscript was submitted on July 22, 2011; approved on
February 9, 2012; published online on February 13, 2012. Discussion per-
iod open until June 1, 2013; separate discussions must be submitted for
individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Hydrologic Engi-
neering, Vol. 18, No. 1, January 1, 2013. © ASCE, ISSN 1084-0699/2013/
1-85-91/$25.00.
2011). These studies in Stephenson and the neighboring counties
of Winnebago, IL, and Green County, WI, had large mismatches
in base flood elevations between the counties. The updated hydro-
logic analysis, which was performed to resolve these issues, used
an additional 25 years in the period of record at the stream gage
locations along this reach. This updated study also uses the most
recent regional regression equations (Soong et al. 2004) to develop
weighted discharge values at gaged and ungaged locations in the
watershed.
Decreasing discharges in the Pecatonica River watershed have
been studied by many researchers. Potter (1991) and Gebert and
Krug (1996) argued that the decrease in flood peaks is primarily
a result of the land-use changes that took place in the late
1930s. Juckem et al. (2008) studied the 1970 step increase in base-
flow and precipitation on a small watershed in the driftless area of
Wisconsin. They argued that “if land management change were the
only driver of the hydrologic change, changes in hydrology would
be expected to occur shortly after the expansion of less intensive
land use practices that started in the mid 1930s. Instead, the most
evident hydrologic change appears to be a step change around
1970. Thus, it appears that the observed changes are a result of the
land use and climate drivers combined.” Similarly, Knapp (2005)
studied trends in discharge and ratios between annual flood peaks
and annual mean flows at a number of streams in a broader geo-
graphic region, including the Pecatonica River. Regardless of the
differences in scope of the aforementioned studies, the researchers
agree that a decrease in the magnitude of the flood peaks exists in
the Pecatonica River peak-flow data.
The main goal of this research was to study the apparent de-
creases in annual flood peaks in the mostly rural Pecatonica River
in the framework of a hydrologic study for FEMA. The Kendall-
Tau trend test (Kendall 1955; Helsel and Hirsch 1995) and t-test
(Snedecor and Cochran 1980) were used to determine the time of
the change. The Kendall-Tau trend test was applied with a variable
start year and fixed end year, 2008—similar to Zhang et al. (2010).

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J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013.18:85-91.

 An additional goal of the study was to explain the cause of the
change, particularly analyzing the intra-annual, i.e., seasonal timing
of floods, not detectable on an annual scale. A regional perspective
was provided by a comparison between this station and several
long-term stations in the vicinity.
Watershed and Data Description
This hydrologic study focuses on the reach from the Illinois/
Wisconsin state boundary to the Winnebago/Stephenson county
line based on the needs of a future hydraulic analysis (Fig. 1).
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Major tributaries along this reach of the Pecatonica River include
Richland and Yellow Creeks. The reach runs through the city of
Freeport. The Pecatonica River drains to the Rock River approx-
imately 58 kilometers downstream of the Winnebago/Stephenson
county line in the neighboring Winnebago County.
The watershed drainage area is 4,308 square kilometers (km2 ) at
the downstream county boundary. The watershed is largely agricul-
tural. Only 6% of the land use is developed, with 82% cultivated
crops and pasture/hay, 10% forest/shrub, and the remaining 2% a
combination of water, grassland, and wetland (Homer et al. 2004).
About one-third of the watershed is in Illinois and two-thirds are in
the southwest corner of Wisconsin (Fig. 1). This region is known as
the Wisconsin driftless area due to the lack of glacial drift deposits
from continental glaciers.
Fig. 1. Pecatonica River watershed upstream of the boundary between Stephenson and Winnebago counties in Illinois, Martintown, Wisconsin
(USGS No. 05434500), and Freeport, Illinois (USGS No. 05435500) stream gages
86 / JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING © ASCE / JANUARY 2013
J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013.18:85-91.
Data from stream gages at the Pecatonica River at Martintown,
Wisconsin (USGS No. 05434500), with a drainage area of
2;677 km2 , and Pecatonica River at Freeport, IL (USGS No.
05435500), with a drainage area of 3;435 km2 , were analyzed
for this study (Fig. 1). The Freeport station is operated by the USGS
in cooperation with the Illinois State Water Survey, Univ. of
Illinois, and maintained by the USGS Illinois Water Science Center.
The Martintown station is operated by the USGS in cooperation
with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers - Rock Island District
and maintained by the USGS Wisconsin Water Science Center.
Both the Martintown and Freeport gages have long periods of
record, 1940–2008 and 1914–2008, respectively, and were used
for frequency analysis. This research focuses on the station with
a longer record (Pecatonica River at Freeport), however, for a more
reliable episodic change analysis.
A centrally located climate monitoring station with the longest
record, at Darlington, WI, was selected to relate changes in climatic
variables to the decreasing peaks in the Pecatonica River at
Freeport (Fig. 1). The daily rainfall, snowfall, and minimum and
maximum temperatures are available for the periods of record
1901–1905 and 1910–2008, while the observed snow depth data
were available for the 1919–1930 and 1940–2008 periods, with oc-
casional observations prior to 1919. The data were obtained using
the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) site: http://mcc
.sws.uiuc.edu/. Similar to many other stations in the region, this
station has been moved several times. The records suggest that
 the range of station moves has not exceeded 25 vertical and 700
horizontal meters, with the major move of approximately 22 m ver-
tically and 650 horizontally in June 1971. Excessive station moves
often raise a concern about the record homogeneity, as large moves
could potentially result in a statistically different record. If the
record after the move is deemed statistically different compared
to the record before the move, then a new station should be estab-
lished. The MRCC quality control examined all the station moves,
including that of June 1971 (Leslie Stoecker MRCC personal com- (a)
munication), and determined that the 1971 move was not signifi-
cant enough to warrant the establishment of a new station.
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Stream Gage Analysis

When stream gage data are available, FEMA recommends using a

statistical gage record analysis based on the methodology described
in Bulletin 17B (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data
1982). This methodology is recommended for flood records that
represent relatively constant watershed conditions (FEMA 2009).
However, when conditions in the watershed change, the flood re-
cords could exhibit statistically significant trends or other changes
(abrupt, episodic, or gradual). Then, prior to the application of the
Bulletin 17B methods, those records must be adjusted by removing
the trends and other changes, so that the resulting data set is indica-
tive of present conditions.
The annual peak discharges at the Freeport gage on the
Pecatonica River appear to have a significant decreasing trend
(Fig. 2). The upstream gage at Martintown with a shorter record
is also shown for comparison in Fig. 2. According to the results
based on the Kendall-Tau trend test for the entire record (Kendall
1955; Helsel and Hirsch 1995), trends are present with a 99%
level of confidence at both gages. However, the 5-year moving
average, presented in Fig. 3(a), indicated that the change may not
be gradual. The 5-year moving average between the 1954–1958
and the 2004–2008 5-year periods appeared relatively constant
(no temporal trend), fluctuating between approximately 100 m3=s
and approximately 200 m3=s, while the previous discharges ap-
peared higher on average. To statistically examine the presence of
an abrupt or episodic change, a change-point analysis of the annual
time series of flood peaks was performed for the Freeport gage
based on the Student’s t-test. The analysis divides the entire record
into two time periods and finds the year for which the difference in
Fig. 2. Observed annual maximum instantaneous flood peaks on
Pecatonica River at Freeport, Illinois, for period 1914–2008 with a
trend line, and at Martintown, Wisconsin, for period 1940–2008
(b)
(c)
Fig. 3. Freeport, Illinois, on the Pecatonica River: (a) 5-year moving
average, linear trend, and averages for 1914–1953 and 1954–2008;
(b) change-point analysis; (c) shift in timing of flood peaks
the mean between the early and late records is statistically maxi-
mized, i.e., has the maximum statistical significance based on the
t-test (Snedecor and Cochran 1980). The analysis produced a maxi-
mum t-statistic of 3.26 for 1954, with a critical value of 1.70, sug-
gesting that the most significant difference occurred in 1954. The
1914–1953 mean was 220.20 m3 =s, and the 1954–2008 mean
was 148.99 m3 =s. Furthermore, the Kendall-Tau trend test results
[Fig. 3(b)] show the absolute values of the Kendall-Tau trend test
coefficients along with the corresponding levels of confidence for
data sets with a variable start year and fixed end year, 2008. It could
be speculated that the most significant episodic change in the
time series started in the 1940s and ended in 1954, as indicated by
the steep slope of the trend coefficient between 1940 and 1954
[Fig. 3(b)]. The end year of the hypothetical episodic change (1954)
coincides with the change year indicated previously by the t-test.
For the year 1954 the trend coefficient is much lower than the
graphed confidence limits, supporting the indication based on the
5-year moving average that the change could have been abrupt or
episodic and also that there was no linear trend in flood peaks for
the period 1954–2008. In addition to the change in the mean, the
earlier data, prior to 1954, had considerably larger variability com-
pared with the 1954–2008 period. The standard deviation of the
1914–1953 data set was 117.73 m3=s, and for 1954–2008 it was
84.57 m3=s. To illustrate these differences in mean and standard
deviation, Fig. 4 shows the two observed periods of record with
their mean and standard deviation, as well as the mean and variance
corrected data prior to 1954. Due to the significant differences

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J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013.18:85-91.

 calculated and subtracted from the mid-range year of record
(1961) to get an average departure. For example, if there are only
two maximum annual flood peaks on the record observed in January,
and if the years were 1950 and 1952, then the average year of
a January flood would be 1951, and the departure would be
1951 − 1961 ¼ −10. If the floods in a certain month were observed
equally frequently early and late in the record, then an expected de-
parture from the mid-range year would be near zero. On the other
hand, if all the floods in a month were observed prior to 1961, then
the departure would be negative, and vice versa. Next, the departure
was weighted by the number of floods observed in that month to
obtain a “standard departure” [Fig. 3(c)]. The figure reveals a sea-
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sonal shift in peaks from February and March to other seasons. In

this text February and March will be referred to as the late winter
months.
Fig. 4. Original and adjusted flood peaks at Freeport, Illinois, on the
Fig. 5 shows a relationship between the sum of the precipitation
Pecatonica River for period 1914–2008; dashed horizontal lines
for the 7 days preceding the flood peak and the magnitude of the
indicate mean discharge for earlier (1914–1953) and later (1954–2008)
peak in each year for January, February, and March [Fig. 5(a)] and
periods
other months [Fig. 5(b)]. The figure also separates the floods before
the change point (1914–1953) from those after the change point
(1954–2008). The average peak discharge for January–March prior
Table 1. Comparison of Estimated Flood Peaks for Pecatonica River at to 1954 (243.4 m3=s) was 59% higher than the same average for
Freeport, IL the winter months after 1954 (153.2 m3=s). The average peaks for
April–December did not change as much, decreasing by approxi-
Estimated flood peaks (m3=s) by
annual chance of occurrence mately 12% from the 1914–1953 period (159.1 m3=s) to the
1954–2008 period (142.6 m3=s). The decrease in the winter months
Methodology 10% 4% 2% 1% 0.2% appears more significant, demonstrating that the historically largest
Regression technique (StreamStats) 407.8 512.6 591.9 665.5 846.8 winter floods became smaller compared to the floods in spring and
Gage analysis (PeakFQ) 259.0 340.1 407.0 479.5 656.8 other seasons. It also could be concluded that the decreasing trend
Weighted 262.5 345.5 412.9 486.0 679.7 in large late winter floods (particularly in March) is the main reason
for the overall decreasing flood peaks. In late winter, snowmelt-
driven floods could be amplified by additional precipitation and
in the mean and standard deviation before and after 1954, and in the presence of frozen ground. Even a moderate rainfall could
accordance with the current hydrologic practices adopted by
FEMA NFIP, the 1954–2008 period was deemed representative
of the present watershed conditions and was selected for frequency
analysis.
After the aforementioned record adjustments for the Pecatonica
River at Freeport, a frequency analysis based on the Bulletin 17B
methods was completed using the USGS PeakFQ software (Flynn
et al. 2006). The generalized skew coefficients were obtained from
Soong et al. (2004). Regression discharge values were determined
using StreamStats version 2 (USGS 2010), using the following
inputs: drainage area, 10–85 slope (the slope between two points
located 10 and 85% of the distance along the channel from the out-
let), and percentage of open water. Table 1 shows the regression (a)
(StreamStats), the gage frequency analysis (PeakFQ), and the final
discharge values calculated by weighting the regression calcula-
tions with the gage analysis calculations as per the methodology
of Soong et al. (2004).

Seasonal Changes in Flood Timing

Because none of the previously suggested reasons for the change

in flood peaks matched the time of the episodic change detected
in this study, an explanation for the decreasing flood peaks was not
based on land-use changes in the 1930s (Potter 1991; Gebert and (b)
Krug 1996), nor was it related to the 1970 step change in precipi-
Fig. 5. Peak discharge on the Pecatonica River at Freeport, Illinois
tation and baseflow (Juckem et al. 2008). Instead, to provide an
versus 7-day cumulative precipitation prior to peak at Darlington, Wis-
additional understanding of the change, this study focuses on
consin: (a) significant decrease in peak discharge magnitude between
seasonal shifts in flooding, which could be explained by seasonal
1914–1953 and 1954–2008 (January–March); (b) only a minor change
climatic shifts. To illustrate a seasonal shift in flood timing for
between two time periods for other months (April–December)
each month, an average year for all the floods in that month were

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Fig. 6. Available monthly average maximum, average minimum, and
average mean temperatures 1901–2008 at Darlington, Wisconsin, in
February
produce a significant flood (Potter 1991) due to the favorable ante-
cedent conditions for flooding. A large winter flood could also be
generated by a significant increase in temperature and a rapid
snowmelt. Thus, it could be hypothesized that the decreasing snow
accumulated on the ground prior to the late winter temperature
increases, causing snowmelt, is one of the main reasons for the re-
duction in flood peaks. This process could be related to the changes
in other climatic variables such as the changing distributions and
perhaps flashiness in air temperature and, thus, the soil temperature,
(a)
(b)
(c)
Fig. 7. Fox River at Berlin, Wisconsin: (a) 5-year moving average,
linear trend, and averages for 1914–1953 and 1954–2008; (b) change-
point analysis; (c) shift in timing of flood peaks
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J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013.18:85-91.
snowfall, or wind. The hypothesis on decreasing snow was con-
firmed by Feng and Hu (2007), who studied snow trends in the
contiguous United States and detected a decreasing trend in snow
in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, where the Pecatonica
River watershed is located.
Another possible contributing factor for the reduced late winter
floods is the increase in temperature in the watershed. Fig. 6 shows
the average minimum, average mean, and average maximum air
temperatures at Darlington, WI, for February for 1901–2008.
It can be speculated that the increasing temperature in the late win-
ter resulted in a decreasing number of soil frost days and less snow
on the ground, providing less favorable conditions for large floods.
These speculations, although partly confirmed by the trend
analysis, remain to be validated. In addition, it remains to be
determined why these seemingly gradual changes in temperature
and snow resulted in a relatively abrupt (episodic) change in peaks
in the late 1940s and early 1950s [Fig. 3(b)]. It is possible that there
is a threshold level reached by a combination of all the climatic
factors described previously and also by the land-use changes such
as management or tillage practices. A more detailed analysis on the
temporal changes in flood formation in this watershed, although
limited by the less complete snow depth data prior to 1939, could
potentially reveal relationships explaining the decrease in flood
peaks. In addition, hydrologic modeling that accounts for energy
balance, snowmelt, and frozen ground (e.g., Cherkauer et al. 2003)
could provide more accurate flood simulations and a better under-
standing of the processes and changes in the watershed.
(a)
(b)
(c)
Fig. 8. Wisconsin River at Muscoda, Wisconsin: (a) 5-year moving
average, linear trend, and averages for 1914–1953 and 1954–2008;
(b) change-point analysis; (c) shift in timing of flood peaks
 Regional Comparison

To validate the foregoing analyses in a regional perspective,

similar tests were performed for four hydrologic sites in the vicin-
ity with long records and relatively constant land use. Those sites
included the Fox River at Berlin, WI (USGS No. 04073500), the
Wisconsin River at Muscoda, WI (USGS No. 05407000), the
Maquoketa River at Maquoketa, IA (USGS No. 05418500),
and the Rock River at Afton, WI (USGS No. 05430500) and (a)
are shown in Figs. 7–10, respectively. The regional results show
a high degree of similarity with the Pecatonica River. All sites
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exhibit a decrease in flood peaks, with variable slope of the best-

fit line [Figs. 3(a), 7(a), 8(a), 9(a), and 10(a)]. The most notable
similarity was detected by the trend analysis. The Kendal-Tau
trend coefficient on the Pecatonica River watershed is very similar
to the four regional watersheds [Figs. 3(b), 7(b), 8(b), 9(b), and
10(b)], particularly with the Rock River at Afton. The t-tests at all
four regional watersheds indicated that the change point is 1954,
the exact same change point year found for the Pecatonica
(b)
River. All regional sites [Figs. 7(c), 8(c), 9(c), and 10(c)] also ex-
hibited a decreasing number of winter annual maxima on average,
particularly in March, and generally increasing number of non-
winter maxima, particularly between April and July, similar to
the Pecatonica River [Fig. 3(c)] (bottom chart, Fig. 4). Similar
analyses were performed for several other watersheds located far-
ther away from the Pecatonica River, but those patterns were not
similar.

(c)

Fig. 10. Rock River at Afton, Wisconsin: (a) 5-year moving average,
linear trend, and averages for 1914–1953 and 1954–2008; (b) change-
point analysis; (c) shift in timing of flood peaks

Concluding Remarks
(a)
The flood frequency analysis presented in this study was a part of a
mapping project with the goal of determining 1% peak discharges
for the Pecatonica River in Illinois, within the framework of the
FEMA NFIP. The apparent episodic change in the annual peak
discharge time series necessitated additional statistical analysis.
The t-test indicated that 1954 was the change year in annual maxi-
mum flood peaks. The Kendal-Tau test confirmed it by detecting a
99% significant trend for the entire record (1914–2008), and no
trend after 1954, for the 1954–2008 record. Following the current
hydrologic practices adopted by FEMA NFIP, the record after 1954
(b)
was assumed to reflect the existing hydrologic conditions and
thus was used as an input to the standard flood frequency analysis
methodology, described in Bulletin 17B.
The causes for the change were investigated, and it was found
that the decreasing trend was accompanied by a seasonal shift in the
timing of floods from late winter to spring or summer. The late
winter floods were typically snowmelt driven, and in the early part
of the record they were much larger than the rainfall-driven floods
observed in other seasons. As the late winter floods decreased,
the smaller spring/summer rainfall-driven floods became dominant
(c) in the later part of the record. The decrease in the winter floods
could be explained by the increasing winter temperatures and de-
Fig. 9. Maquoketa River at Maquoketa, Iowa: (a) 5-year moving aver- creasing conditions favorable to large floods such as frozen ground
age, linear trend, and averages for 1914–1953 and 1954–2008; and snowmelt in the watershed. A regional comparison indicated
(b) change-point analysis; (c) shift in timing of flood peaks that the episodic change in the peaks in the Pecatonica River is

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J. Hydrol. Eng. 2013.18:85-91.

 consistent with several adjacent watersheds, beyond the geographic
extent of the Wisconsin driftless area.
Acknowledgments
This research represents an extension of a project funded by
the Federal Emergency Management Agency, under Award
EMC=2009-CA-7007. We would also like to thank Amy Russell
and Alena Bartosova for reviewing an earlier version of the manu-
script, and Lisa Sheppard and Sara Olson for editorial and graphical
assistance.
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