Climate change – what you aren’t being told

I was so fed up with being stopped in the centre of London when the Extinction
Rebellion protests were going on and listening to people reciting phrases based on
emotion based suppositions and responses to the climate change issues but without
any facts. Though their concerns are admirable change and progress needs to be
based on facts everything I heard was negative, lacking in facts based evidence, and
were just uneducated and uninformed, almost hysterical, emotional responses. So I
decided to do a bit of research and, though not comprehensive, here it is:

UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Human caused emissions were responsible for more than half the 0.6C – 0.7C global average
temperature rise recorded between 1951 and 2010
Fifth Assessment Report, published in 2013, stated there are ‘no significant observed trends in
global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century’ and that ‘No robust trends in annual
numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricane counts have been identified over
the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.’
Cyclones in the tropics would in future be less numerous, although some would be stronger
2014 report states that ‘no gauge-based evidence has been found for a climate-driven,
globally widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods.’
2014: ‘There is low confidence that rates of species extinctions have increased over the last
several decades. Most extinctions over the last several centuries have been attributed to
habitat loss, over-exploitation, pollution, or invasive species.

International Union for Conservation of Nature

'Of the more than 800 extinctions documented only 20 have been tenuously linked to recent
climate change. Overall, there is very low confidence that observed species extinctions can be
attributed to recent climate warming.’

Government’s Committee on Climate Change

Since 1990, UK emissions have fallen by 43 per cent

56 per cent of our electricity came from low carbon sources in 2018
The UK’s last coal-fired power station will close in 2025
The UK has pledged to ‘decarbonise’ electricity by 2030
Climate Change Act requires the UK to reduce its 1990 carbon emissions by 80% by the year
2050

Climate change predictions

UN
RCP 4.5 - IPCC says ‘likely’ range of warming by 2100 would be RCP 4.5 which is between
1.1C and 2.6C
RCP 6 - between 1.4C and 3.1C
RCP 8.5 - by 2100 between 2.6 and 4.8 degrees above the average recorded between 1986
and 2005 but would require a massive increase in the use of coal, and the reversal of the
emissions cuts which many countries have already achieved

Population change

UN - Global population will reach 9.77 billion by 2050 and 11 billion by 2100.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - states that fertility rates are in dramatic
decline worldwide and world population may peak below nine billion by 2050 and then
decline
Sanjeev Sanyal, Deutsche Bank – 8.7 billion by 2055 and then decline
Jørgen Randers, Professor of Climate Strategy, Norwegian Business School – 8 billion by
2040 and then decline
Wolfgang Lutz, IIASA World Population Program, Wittgenstein Centre – 9.4 billion by 2070-
2075 then decline to 9.3 billion by 2100

Progress in the UK
44% reduction on carbon emissions between 1990 and 2018
First and second carbon budgets met, on track to meet third, but not the fourth
Needs reduction in domestic emissions of 3% of 2018 emissions, 50% higher than
previous 2050 target and 30% than that achieved o average since 1990
Targets – existing power infrastructure, size of wind farms, cars and electric vehicles,
home and building insulation, Govt. policies and subsidies

Climate Change Committee

https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/reducing-carbon-emissions/how-
the-uk-is-progressing/

Carbon budgets
https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/reducing-carbon-
emissions/carbon-budgets-and-targets/

Climate Change concerns prior to 2018

Beat generation late 60s early 70s
Godley and Crème 1977 album ‘Consequences’

Environment
Regreening of cities
Excluding of older vehicles from city centres
Renewable energy sources
Reduction of energy use in homes and industries – there are around 10 million gas
boilers installed in UK homes which would require a substantial industrial
infrastructure to recycle them
Solar panels
Recycling water run-off from roofs and gardens
Improved car manufacturing to reduce CO2 emissions
Recycling at home
Recycling at work
Going car free
Get rid of and cease manufacturing PCs, TVs, laptops, tablets and mobiles and other
electronic items in the home
Get rid of air conditioning

Agriculture
Two thirds of grassland isn’t suitable to grow crops on and it’s better for the
environment if ruminants are able to graze those areas unsuitable for crops to keep
them healthy
There are reduced methane cattle – gradually phase out high methane cattle and
replace them with low methane cattle
Grassland absorbs carbon dioxide. However if everyone became vegan or
vegetarian the amount of land required to grow all the crops needed would have an
adverse effect on the rainforests and wild places and would have consequences for
wildlife
Methane emissions by ruminants are offset by carbon gain in the soil
Grazing keeps grasslands healthy
Becoming vegan or vegetarian only results in a 2-6% drop in that person’s carbon
emissions

Results put forward for the percentage of carbon produced is skewed favourably
towards transportation’s production of greenhouse gasses. This is because the
entire process chain is used to assess agricultural output of greenhouse gas
emissions at 18% whereas only direct output of greenhouse gas emissions is
assessed for outputs at 28% from transportation and not the entire chain.
Cattle herds have reduced in size – the USA beef herd by about one third since 1975
and dairy cattle from 75million to 9 million since 1975
https://medium.com/@caroline.stocks/debunking-the-methane-myth-why-cows-
arent-responsible-for-climate-change-23926c63f2c0
Reducing meat consumption
Waste less food
US dairy cattle numbers have fallen from 25m to 9m in 70 years and the beef herd by
about a third

Transport
Syngas – recyclable jet fuel

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2019/10/10/british-airways-to-
offset-emissions-on-all-uk-domestic-flights/

Corsia – offsetting carbon emissions in the aviation sector

https://www.iata.org/policy/environment/Pages/corsia.aspx

Holiday cruises – Three times more emissions than aircraft. Carnival, which
comprises 11 cruise lines, said in its annual environmental report that its ships, on
average, release 712.kg of CO2 per kilometre. Carnival's ships carry, on average, a
maximum of 1,776 passengers. This means that 401g of CO2 is emitted per
passenger per kilometre, even when the boat is entirely full. This is 36 times greater
than the carbon footprint of a Eurostar passenger and more than three times that of
someone travelling on a standard Boeing 747 or a passenger ferry. The Passenger
Shipping Association (PSA) revealed that a ferry, on average, releases 120g of CO2
(per passenger, per kilometre). A lot of passengers take flights at either the
beginning or the end of the cruise.

Container ships - Every day the clothes, tech and toys that fill the shelves in our
shopping centres seem to arrive there by magic. In fact, about nine out of 10 items
are shipped halfway around the world on board some of the biggest and dirtiest
machines on the planet. It has been estimated that just one of these container ships,
the length of around six football pitches, can produce the same amount of pollution
as 50 million cars. The emissions from 15 of these mega-ships match those from all
the cars in the world. And if the shipping industry were a country, it would be ranked
between Germany and Japan as the sixth-largest contributor to global CO2
emissions.

Generational issues
Interesting. I was thinking again about my generation and how we are being held
responsible for climate change and wondered quite how anyone could come to that
conclusion given that when we were kids - we were wearing hand me downs,
recycling old clothes and furniture etc with the rag and bone man, my mum washed
out plastic bags for re-use, used horse manure left on the street by the rag and bone
man's horses for the garden instead of manufactured fertilizer, horses and carts were
used instead of vans and cars for some trades, up until I got posted to Germany in
1975 no one in our family had ever been on an aircraft and holidays abroad involving
flights were almost unheard of as no one could afford them and there weren't as
many aircraft as there are nowadays. Milk was delivered in recyclable bottles by
electric vehicles. Juice and pop was sold in recyclable bottles which we returned to
the shop for recycling for which we got 1 old penny per bottle. In our family's five
green grocery shops we served veg and fruit in recyclable paper bags and made
deliveries on a trades bike or using a trolley. Used brown paper bags for book covers
at school to prevent damage and extend the life of the books. We used razor blades
where the blade is replaced when one gets blunt rather than throw the whole thing
away as is done with the mostly plastic disposable razor away. We walked upstairs
in many office buildings and shopping centres as there weren’t so many escalators.
We walked to the shops as we didn’t own a car. Nappies were washed and reused
as we didn’t have the throw away ones. We dried clothes on washing lines as we
didn’t have energy gobbling tumble dryers in the home. We only had one TV into
which we put six pence pieces and one radio in the house. We didn’t have mobile
phones just one landline at my grandma’s next door which we all shared so no need
then for the proliferation of satellites and the massive infrastructure to support them
and their networks. None of us had a PC let alone laptops, tablets etc for mobile use
or spread around the home. The grass in our garden was cut using a hand pushed
mower not by powered mowers. Most of the work our family did was manual so we
didn’t go to gyms packed with powered devices and when we did go to the gym it
was mostly weights, skipping ropes, boxing bags and steps, not electrically powered
machines, same as the Army gyms I worked in. We used water fountains when out
and about not throwaway bottles. We didn’t have coffee shops that sold coffee in
disposable cups we had cafes that sold coffee in washable cups and saucers. We
used buses, trains and bicycles and walked to school instead of being driven there.
We made toast on the end of a roasting fork over the fire in our front room. pea
souper fogs were a thing of the past because of environmental laws that had been
put in place. We had a limited number of powered appliances not a proliferation of
them. There were no computers at schools. So I wonder who it is who has caused all
the problems?

Sports
F1 - Each of the 10 teams in Formula One spend almost as much time in the air and
they do on the ground. They each lug between 50 and 100 tons of cars, spare parts,
and equipment to each of the 21 races on the calendar, covering more than 110,000
air miles every year. Those teams don’t just travel with cars and mechanics. They
bring ostentatious mobile headquarters and hospitality centres with them everywhere
they go to impress local dignitaries and their high roller sponsors. 110,000 miles
times 10 teams equals 1,100,000 miles. A 747 burns 5 gallons of jet fuel for every
mile it flies. That’s 5.5 million gallons of jet fuel just to fly back and forth to races. Add
in another 25% to get to testing venues, promotional events, and other special
activities and you’re up to almost 7 million gallons. And that still doesn’t account for
emissions from the factories, wind tunnels, and the 300 to 600 employees each team
employs. A gallon of jet fuel creates 21 pounds of carbon dioxide when it is burned,
according to the Energy Information Agency. 21 pounds times 7 million gallons
equals a staggering 147 million pounds of carbon dioxide just so Formula One can
bring “the show” to fans all over the world.

So what about the other partner Tommaso Chiabra, well he also makes a living from
brokering super yachts, possibly the next least greenest thing after F1.
A typical 100ft superyacht uses about 400 litres of fuel an hour or to put it another
way, 0.1 miles/gallon.

Both these guys own or at least use private jets

Information and Communication Technology

Production of PCs, servers, TVs, tablets and mobile phones
The supply of electricity to data/computing centres whose electricity use is made up
of between 1-2% of their total supply
Power resources that factories that make these use
Using computers to develop new ways and materials for sustainable power
production, predict climate change, develop new ways of responding to disasters,
and in developing new methods of transport – however the use of computers is an
issue in itself because of the manufacturing processes and material used in their
production
The Energy and Carbon Footprint of the Global ICT and E&M Sectors 2010–
2015
file:///C:/Users/Trevor/Downloads/sustainability-10-03027-v2.pdf

Walbrook Wharf Waste Recycling Centre, City of London