Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Spring 2017
Sample Material
b
Preface [included in sample] i
Overview [included in sample] 1
Oxford Economics, one of the world’s foremost independent global economic forecasting firms, has been
commissioned by Europump and the Hydraulic Institute to produce a pump market forecast report across 71
countries, 16 end-use sectors and 5 pump categories
Why?
An annual market forecast report previously produced by European Industrial Forecasting (EIF) has been
discontinued and the firm has ceased operation.
We are not intending to replicate the methodology, coverage and style of analysis of the previous report. Rather, our
aim is to produce a set of forecasts that are transparent in their construction and modelling framework, are rigorously
underpinned by macroeconomic and sector-specific forecasts, and add maximum value to users in their business
planning and decision making.
We strongly believe that the methodologies underlying construction of the data sets and econometric modelling must
be transparent and credible. In the spirit of transparency, we invite you to read and the data appendix (which provides
details on how we construct our data) and the glossary (which provides details on the definitions and codes for each
of the pump types, as well as definitions of end use markets). They are intended to help readers understand why our
estimates of market size may differ from their prior-held views or those published by EIF.
Oxford Economics recognises this inaugural report is far from perfect. But it does provide what we believe to be a
solid starting point that will continually improve with each subsequent edition.
Jeremy Leonard
Director of Global Industry Services
Oxford Economics
May 2017
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2017 Overview
Overview
World: Pump consumption by region (2016)
GDP growth rebound to benefit pumps North
Global pump consumption is forecast to expand by 1.7% America, 16%
South
this year to around US$124bn after an estimated decline America, 3%
of 2.9% last year.
5
China continues to drive pump demand
The most rapid growth is expected in Asia Pacific, where 0
China accounted for a paltry 7% of the global pump customer sectors where it has also seen its share of
market, compared to an estimated share of 40% by 2016. global output rise significantly. Over the next five
This broadly mirrors China’s rapid growth in end-use years, we
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2017 Overview
expect China to remain the fastest growing market of the 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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2017 Overview
main pump-consuming countries. However, growth will be
much slower compared to the past decade as Beijing’s
World Output: Utilities, construction and
shift away from investment-led growth is expected to result % year agriculture
Utilities
in slower (albeit still healthy) growth in end-use sector 8 Construction Forecast
Agriculture
activity and investment spending more generally. By 2021, 6
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
12000 20 35000
30
15 30000
10000
20
10 25000
8000
5 20000 10
6000
0 15000
0
4000 -5 10000
0 -15 0 -20
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
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2017 Overview
Pharmaceuticals
World: Pharmaceuticals*
Pharma outlook remains mixed US$, billions Real value added output (LHS) % year
700
The pharmaceutical sector is generally detached from the Growth rate (RHS) 12
Forecast
economic cycle for a number of reasons related to its cost 600
8
generally a source of stable demand growth for pump
400
producers who supply highly specialised products to the 6
pharmaceutical industry. 300
4
200
In the developed world, we have seen a mixed
100 2
performance so far this year, but the slowdown since H2
2016 means that we only expect output to rise by 0.5% in 0 0
number of emerging markets are looking at developing 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source : Haver Analytics/UN Population
their healthcare systems in order to increase the
accessibility of healthcare, which, in turn, will raise
demand for pharmaceuticals. However, progress has GDP per head purchasing power parity
stumbled in some economies where economic growth has Thousands
Forecast
50
slowed. At the same time, emerging markets generally
45
rank poorly with regard to patent protection and this will
40
struggled over the past few years given its dependence on US$mn Consumption (LHS) % year
for pump end-users and thereby pump consumption. 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
The improving economic outlook and prospects for the oil
sector should lead to improving end-use sector demand. We
expect our index of end-use demand to grow by an average
of 3.3% over the forecast period, compared to falls Canada: Centrifugal pump consumption
averaging 11.1% over the past three years. The extraction US$mn Consumption (LHS) % year
steadily after that. As a result, the pump market looks set for 30
800
steady, though not spectacular growth. We expect pump
20
consumption to grow by 3.2% in 2017, compared to an 600
10
estimated fall of 7.7% in 2016. We then expect the market to
400
grow to $5,486m in 2021, from just $4,341m in 2016 – an 0
increase of 35%. The “other” pump category contains the 200 -10
best prospects for growth, with year-on-year growth
0 -20
expected to reach 8.1% in 2021. Centrifugal pumps are 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
expected to be the weakest. Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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2017 North America
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
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2017 Economic Background | Canada
Canada
Real GDP grew 3.7% annualized in Q1, global uncertainties will keep the Bank of
marking a very upbeat start to 2017 for Canada on the sidelines until early next year.
Canada’s economy. The headline gain was
The economy continues to generate robust
broad-based, with the exception of net
employment growth, with the 12-month moving
exports (which were a drag on growth). The
average in May at its strongest since early
economy appears to be picking up
2013. Upbeat job creation will support income
momentum, but we think the headline Q1
growth and in turn consumer spending, even as
growth number overstates the true pace of
wage growth remains weak. Meanwhile, oil
underlying economic activity. Going
prices continue to trade in the US$40-50 per
forward, we expect that rising activity in
barrel range, highlighting that energy sector
both energy and non-energy sectors, as well
activity isn’t likely to contribute as robustly to
as supportive monetary and fiscal policy,
GDP growth as it did in the days before oil
will underpin a more moderate-paced
prices collapsed.
expansion and forecast that GDP growth will
average 2.5% in 2017 as a whole.
A recent speech from Senior Deputy Governor
Carolyn Wilkins signals the Bank of Canada is
growing more confident about the economic
outlook. However, rather than signalling an
imminent tightening of monetary policy, we think
the Bank of Canada is trying to telegraph that it
is very unlikely – barring an unexpected shock –
to lower the overnight rate below the current
level of 0.5%. We expect the next move from
the Bank of Canada will be a 25 basis point rate
hike in Q1 2018. In our view, weak inflationary
pressures and considerable domestic and
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2017 Economic Background | Canada
Forecast Overview Canada: Non-fuel exports and world trade
% year
Fairly sluggish export performance 25 W orld trade
20 F'cast
The performance of non-energy exports over the last year
15
has been disappointing considering the benefit of a more
10
competitive Canadian dollar. It probably reflects – at least
5
some of the time – sluggish external demand. However, the 0
external background has started to improve and we do -5
Non-fuel export
expect overall export volume growth to edge up slightly to -10 volumes
1.3% in 2017 from 1% last year. Imports meanwhile are -15
projected to grow by 2.0% in 2017, reflecting gradually -20
strengthening domestic demand – though a still weak C$ will -25
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
continue to act as a check on imports.
Source: Oxford Economics
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2017 Economic Background | Canada
policy, which is unlikely to shift in 2017. However, long-
Canada: Exchange rate per US$
term interest rates have risen on a mix of domestic and 0.9
foreign factors, posing some modest risks to the outlook. F'cast
1.0
1.2
Persistent drag from high household debt: over-
1.3
indebtedness will remain a concern. We expect
1.4
household debt to start falling only in the medium term.
Even then, it will stay well above the level of many other 1.5
developed economies – the eventual deleveraging 1.6
process will be protracted and serve as a drag on
1.7
consumer spending. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Oxford Economics
-4
Key-long term advantages
-6
Energy sector opportunities: Canada will benefit from 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
rising shale gas and oil output in the longer term. Source: Oxford Economics
However, a vast outstripping of global supply trends
relative to demand will lead to less vigorous activity in
Canada’s energy sector in the short term.
Healthy government finances: the budget deficit is small Canada: Government balance and debt
relative to most developed countries, at around 1% of % of GDP % of GDP
4 140
GDP. The Trudeau government will ramp up spending to F'cast
stimulate the economy but government debt as a 3 120
Government
percentage of GDP should still fall over time. 2 debt (RHS) 100
1 80
Growing labor supply: although slowing, the working
age population is expected to grow at a faster rate than in 0 60
Government
most other advanced economies, supporting long-term balance (LHS)
-1 40
potential growth. -2 20
-3 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Oxford Economics
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2017 Glossary
Definition of market size
We define the national market size (also referred to as “apparent consumption” or simply “consumption”) as:
Figures are expressed in nominal terms (ie not adjusted for inflation), and are converted to US dollars at current-year
exchange rates. Therefore, movements in currencies against the US dollar will have an impact on market size.
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2017 Glossary
Definition of end-use markets
We use the NACE revision 2 classification system for our end use sector analysis (which is identical to the ISIC
revision 4 and very close to the North American NAICS classification at this level of aggregation). Our data is sourced
from GDP by sector data and industrial production data sources from national statistical agencies. More detail on our
end-use sector data methodology is available on request.
5 and 7 Mining Includes the extraction of coal, other solid mineral fuels and metallic ores
through underground, seabed or open-cast mining, as well as activities
such as crushing, grinding, washing, or compressing leading to a
marketable product
6 and 19 Oil & gas Includes the production of crude petroleum, the mining and extraction of oil Broken down into extraction
from oil shale and oil sands and the production of natural gas and recovery and refining
of hydrocarbon liquids. This division includes the activities of operating
and/or developing oil and gas field properties. It also includes the
manufacture of liquid or gaseous fuels or other products from crude
petroleum, bituminous minerals or their fractionation products. Petroleum
refining involves one or more of the following activities: fractionation;
straight distillation of crude oil; and cracking.
17 Pulp & paper This sector comprises (1) manufacture of pulp, involving separating the
cellulose fibres from other matter in wood; (2) manufacture of raw paper,
involving releasing pulp onto a moving wire mesh so as to form a
continuous sheet; (3) conversion of paper into end-use products such as
cardboard, sanitary paper, stationery, wallpaper, etc.
21 Pharmaceuticals Includes the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and
pharmaceutical preparations, as well as the manufacture of medicinal
chemical and botanical products
35 to 39 Utilities Includes (1) the the activity of providing electric power, natural gas, steam, Broken down into power
hot water and the like through a permanent infrastructure (network) of lines, generation and water/sewerage
mains and pipes; (2) the collection, treatment and distribution of water for
domestic and industrial needs; and (3) operation of sewer systems or
sewage treatment facilities that collect, treat, and dispose of sewage.
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2017 Data methodology
For all countries, trade data is sourced from the UN trade database (“Comtrade”). This database records customs
data of the value of goods traded between countries. The classification system used for Comtrade is the UN’s
Harmonized System (HS) classification. The classification used for this work, discussed with associations and large
market players, is as follows (note we anticipate that this classification could be amended over time based on
feedback from the industry):
Production
There is no single source of production data for the countries covered in this report as there is for trade data.
Therefore, different approaches are used for different countries depending on their available data sources. It is
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2017 Data methodology
possible to classify countries into groups which indicate the general methodology used to construct their production
data:
1. European countries;
2. Non-European countries with domestic production that have granular production data;
3. Non-European countries with domestic production that do not have granular production data;
4. Countries whose domestic production is marginal or zero.
European countries:
Eurostat collects detailed production information for very granular industrial sectors for European countries; its
database is called Prodcom. This information is itself collected from national statistical bodies, who implement survey
methods to determine the size and value of production in different industrial sectors. The mapping used is detailed
below and aligns closely with the mapping used for Comtrade (indeed the classification has been designed to accord
with the Comtrade HS classification system since this is our “lead” data source since it covers all countries globally):
Co d e Title C at 1 ID 1
28 1213 20 H ydra ul i c pumps (pi s ton) R e c iproc a ti ng P_ R e c
C e ntrifug a l P_ C en
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2017 Data methodology
One key assumption relates to data omitted by Prodcom to protect company confidentiality. This typically arises in
smaller countries where there are few enough producers such that statistics could reveal private financial information
about individual companies. In such cases, we do the following to fill in the data gaps:
Calculate the share of the product category in question in prior years as a percentage of overall EU
production.
Apply this percentage to the overall level of EU production in the year with missing data to calculate an
estimate of the country’s production for that year.
Non-European countries with domestic production that have granular production data
Outside of Europe, seven countries have country specific data sources with data for pump production (United States,
Japan, Canada, South Korea, Argentina, Australia and Brazil). For these countries, we use this data, along with
country-specific assumptions on the mapping of their pump categories (which are typically not classified according to
HS) to the HS classification used by Comtrade, our lead data source.
Non-European countries with domestic production that do not have granular production data
For most non-European producers, national statistical bodies do not collect production information granular enough to
calculate the size on the pump market. As a result, for these countries we source the data on more aggregated
sectors directly from the statistical bodies and then assume that export patterns are an acceptable proxy for domestic
production patterns. Specifically, for each of the pump product types, we do the following:
Calculate pumps’ share of total exports in the more aggregated “General purpose machinery” sector of which
pumps are a part (NACE 28.1, parts of NAICS 332 and 333).
Apply this export share to our estimates of production in the “General purpose machinery” sector to derive an
estimate of the value of pump production.
For these countries, we simply assume that exports equal production since these countries provide a negligible
contribution to the overall global pump market. Thus, apparent consumption reduces to imports.
Detailed examples
Here we provide one indicative example for each of the four production categories above to illustrate the methods
and assumptions used to construct the data. We interchange between using 2015 and 2010 to illustrate the data. If
readers require more detail on assumptions, we maintain a supplementary assumptions log that we would be happy
to share with interested readers upon request.
As already noted, the UK import and export data come from Comtrade. This shows that UK pump exports in 2015
were $2,305mn (incl. parts) and imports were $2,107mn (incl. parts).
Production data comes from Eurostat’s Prodcom database. The raw value for 2015 for total pumps (incl. parts) was
$1,858mn. However, this figure implies that exports are greater than the overall value of production which cannot be
the case since production must equal exports plus UK pumps consumed domestically.1
1
Possible exceptions would be trans-shipment hubs (such as the Netherlands), where re-exports could be a factor, but re-exports from the UK are
negligible
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2017 Data methodology
There are two main reasons why this might be the case:
Robustness of survey-based data. Data collected via surveys (such as Prodcom) may miss producers or suffer
from non-response and hence are less reliable than administrative data that collects information on all producers.
Import and export data is more comprehensive in this sense since it measures the actual recorded value of goods
that pass through customs, rather than surveys of companies on their exports.
Differences in mapping. It could be the case that the mapping of Prodcom codes is different from the mapping
of Comtrade codes, as these use different industrial classification systems. However, Prodcom also provides
trade data which we can compare to the Comtrade data to test if our mapping is the same – if the Prodcom trade
numbers match the Comtrade numbers then our mapping must be equivalent. Running this comparison, we
found an almost perfect equivalence between Comtrade and Prodcom trade data. Therefore, this discrepancy
cannot be the result of mapping differences.
To account for such discrepancies, we adjust the Prodcom data, using the “export proxy” assumption regarding
production:
Calculate pumps’ share of total exports in the more aggregated “General purpose machinery” sector of which
pumps are a part (NACE 28.1, parts of NAICS 332 and 333).
Apply this export share to our estimates of production in the “General purpose machinery” sector to derive an
estimate of the value of pump production.
This gives our overall estimate for 2015 UK pumps including parts: $2,453mn - $2,305mn + $2,107mn = $2,556mn.2
Non-European producers with additional data (example: United States)
According to Comtrade data, in 2010 the US had exports equal to $6,918mn (incl. parts) for the total pump market.
For 2010 imports, Comtrade records value for the US of $7,124mn, again including parts.
The United States has additional information available on pump production from its Annual Survey of Manufactures
(ASM) and the ASM’s predecessor survey for US manufacturing (ma333 for pumps). These surveys provide granular
information on pump production across subsegments as defined in the NAICS classification system. The ASM has
very different categories compared to the HS classification from Comtrade (our lead data source). Since there is no
complete correspondence table we need to make many different assumptions. We have used the following methods
to verify that the decisions we have made about mappings are valid:
The ASM also has some trade data for some of the product categories. This allows us to check the ASM
trade data against our Comtrade data. If they line up, this suggests that mappings are correct.
From our Comtrade data, we can compute exports in the subsectors as a share of the total pump market. We
would expect to see similar, though not necessarily the same, shares in the Comtrade data as in the ASM
data.
We know that the overall export level for each pump subcategory must be less than the production value for
each pump subsector. Thus, if a mapping yields several subcategories with exports greater than production,
we know there is an issue with the mapping.
There are some imperfect, though useful, correspondence tables available that we have used to inform our
mapping choices.
Even with these checks allowing us to make judgements about whether our mapping is correct or not, it is impossible
to know whether the mapping is exact, since surveys differ in the ways they ask for information which may imply that
they under or overestimate the data relative to the Comtrade data. Where possible, we are happy to work with the
associations and industry to improve the mapping if sensible – though it is important to note that 100% accuracy in
the mapping may not be possible.
2
It is interesting to note that EIF’s estimate for the UK pump market in 2015 (which should be production – exports + imports) is $803mn (or about
$1bn including parts). But we know from Comtrade that imports alone were $2.1bn. So if the EIF estimate of the UK market is correct, it implies
that the difference between production and exports must equal $-1.1bn. In other words, the UK must export $1.1bn more pumps than it produces!
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2017 Data methodology
Our data construction method can be split into two parts based on the survey used: for 2008 and earlier we use the
predecessor to the ASM, which has very granular data. For post 2008 we use the ASM. This has detailed data, which
requires a different approach to 2008 and earlier.
Post-2008
For the years post 2008, we only have an overall category from the Annual Survey of Manufacturers (ASM) called
“Pump equipment” – this is formed from the summation of the “industrial pumps” category, as well as several
additional categories that appear to apply to the overall pumps category. From here, two steps are required to get to
our final data:
1. The overall category contains more items that are not relevant for the pump market and thus need to be
removed – we can see this because we have this overall category for 2000-2008 as well from the ASM,
which we can compare with our actual data for 2000-2008 calculated according to the description above. Our
actual data for 2008 and earlier shows that the data we want is typically around 60-80% of the overall
category. We thus split out the overall category for years post-2008 using an average of this percentage over
several previous years from the 2008 and earlier period.
2. Once we have the overall data value as described in 1, we then need to split this out into the subsectors. To
do this, we first take the data for 2008 constructed above and grow this forward using the Comtrade export
data. We then use this “proxy” data to calculate splits which we apply to the category made in 1 to find the
pump subsectors. The only exception to this process is pump parts, for which the ASM has a direct category
which we use.
The result of this process is a set of production values for each pump subsector, the sum of which is the production
value for the overall pump sector. Finally, in some cases, like the Prodcom data, some subcategories have production
values less than exports. If this is the case, then we assume production equals exports.
In 2010, this overall value for US pump production is $9,424mn including parts. Combining this last value with the
Comtrade trade data leaves us with apparent consumption for the US in 2010 of: $9,424mn – $6,918mn + $7,125mn
= $9,631m.
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2017 Data methodology
China’s statistical authority produces no information on the overall size of pump production. Furthermore, we have
used a standardised approach to searching for additional data sources, which has not identified further sources of
information for China. Over time we intend to build up more detailed information from the financial information of
Chinese companies – however this approach has limitations: company’s financial reports have patchy data coverage,
often differ from company to company, and are not available for the large number of smaller companies operating in
China. Therefore, this approach of using company financial information to validate or adjust our approach will require
careful assumptions as well as time to build up a database of credible information.
Our current approach is to use simple, transparent assumptions which can be refined over future editions of this
report as more source information is found and utilised. In this case, the assumption is that the share of pumps in
Chinese “general purpose machinery” (excl. “other general purpose machinery”; NACE code 28.1) for production is
the same as that for exports (since we have export data we can rely on from Comtrade). This assumption breaks
down into the following steps:
Take Chinese pumps exports as a share of wider Chinese “general purpose machinery” (NACE code 28.1)
exports.
Apply this share to China’s production of “general purpose machinery” (NACE code 28.1) to derive an estimate of
China’s production of pumps.
Using this transparent approach, gives an estimate for Chinese pump production (2015) of $50,792mn (note this
includes parts, which is 23% of overall pump production). We think this estimate is plausible based on several
comparisons:
Chinese production of “general purpose machinery” (NACE 28.1) was $441,300mn in 2015. Therefore, of this
pumps represents roughly 12%. In addition to pumps, “General purpose machinery” consists of bearings, taps,
valves, compressors, fluid power equipment and industrial motors. It seems eminently plausible that pumps could
account for 12% of this group of products in China.
Chinese pump exports (2015) were $6,561mn according to Comtrade. Therefore, exports are roughly 13% of
overall production. For a country such as China that is investment-intensive, has a large manufacturing sector
and uses a lot of machinery, this certainly seems plausible.
Possible sources of uncertainty for this figure however are (1) differences between NACE categories used for
Chinese production and HS categories used by Comtrade; (2) China exports more pump as a share of total
general purpose manufacturing than its overall production.
Therefore, according to the Comtrade data combined with plausible assumptions, China is a very large market. The
Comtrade data shows that China’s overall exports of pumps are $6,561mn, and its imports are $4,026mn. Along with
the production figure estimated above, the overall size of the Chinese pump market (2015) is $48,257mn. For
comparison, EIF estimated the size of the Chinese market at $8.3bn (or about $10bn including parts) in 2015. But
Comtrade tells us that imports were $4bn. This implies that domestic producers must be manufacturing $6bn worth of
pumps to serve the domestic market – less than the $6.561bn produced for export. We do not think it is plausible that
more than 50% of Chinese pump production is exported.
For “non-producers” (i.e. countries that have negligible exports of pumps), we assume that production is equal to
exports since their domestic production is so small as not to have a strong impact on the global pump market. In the
case of Saudi Arabia this implies:
According to Comtrade data, in 2010 Saudi Arabia’s pump exports were $75mn and pumps imports were
$1,408m.
Production is set to equal exports – thus pump production for 2010 is $75mn.
Therefore, pump apparent consumption in 2010 equals £75mn - $75mn + $1,408mn = $1,408mn.
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