Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 4 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 2

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering

Unit
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be yes ☒ No ☐
enabled
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the activity: Delivery Environment of the activity:
75 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Thursday, October 24,
Friday, October 4, 2019 2019
Competence to develop:

The student uses in real situations, the criteria of uncertainty and the theory of games in
the decision making that guarantees the development and continuity of a decision
process.
Topics to develop:

Unit 2. Decisions in an environment of uncertainty

4. Criteria of Laplace, Minimal, Savage and Hurwicz

5. Game Theory
6. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as follows:

Step 1. In Exercises 1 to 3, the student must solve by the criteria Laplace, Wald or
pessimist, optimist, Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix the proposed questions.) These
concepts take into account probabilities and states that are influenced by learning
environments. uncertainty, so it is recommended that you identify these variables very
well because daily life is full of them for decision making.

Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the Exercises
solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the contributions of all the
participants in the activity. To divide among the members of the collaborative groups the
proposed Exercises is not a methodology of the course, as the qualification will be done
according to the contributions presented individually.

Step 2. In Exercises 4 to 6, the student must solve the questions raised by game theory,
remember that the goal of game theory is to present decision alternatives where it
assumes that in a fair game what a player wins his opponent must lose exactly and vice
versa, hence it is important to generate solutions that satisfy this condition of justice in
the game, to call it in some way.

Step 3. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of
the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities,
remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results
table for the Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for
the use of educational resources.

Step 4. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and Monitoring
Environment.

Activities to develop

Next, you will find 6 exercises that make up phase 4, these should be developed
individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the discussion, correction,
consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online tool that is available in the practical
learning environment to check results of manual and online methods of the Exercises
raised.

Exercise 1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and Savage criteria

(Profit Matrix):

To develop the exercise 1 to 3, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-347), New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best technology of
four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation of the workers who will
manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The expected benefits of each alternative and
degree of adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For
Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,7.

According to Table 1 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic

criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level according to the benefit
criteria.

Exercise 2. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA, must
plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in the day of love and
friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of five
categories: 610, 630, 680, 715 and 730 crates. There are therefore four levels of supply.
The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either
due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below shows the
costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,75.

According to Table 2 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic

criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level according to the benefit
criteria.

Exercise 3. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the USA, must
plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in the day of love and
friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but is expected to fall into one of five
categories: 580, 720, 750, 790 and 830 crates. There are therefore four levels of supply.
The deviation from the number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either
due to excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below shows the
costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,55.

According to Table 3 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic

criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level according to the benefit
criteria.
Exercise 4. Game Theory method:

To develop the exercise 4 to 5, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 383-391), New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the players has
only two strategies. Consider the following 2 x n game:

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
Player I 27 33 38
1 II 19 25 31

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical method applied
to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Exercise 5. Game Theory method:

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the players has
only two strategies. Consider the following game m x 2:

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 35
Player 1 II 31 35
II 33 37

According to Table 5, find the value of the game by means of the graphical method
applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Exercise 6. Optimum solution of two-person games (Theory of games, mixed

strategies):

To develop the exercise 6, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 383-391), New
Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in the knowledge
environment of the course.

The games represent the latest case of lack of information where intelligent opponents are
working in a conflicting environment. The result is that a very conservative criterion is
generally proposed to solve sets of two people and sum zero, called minimax - maximin
criterion. To determine a fair game, the minimax = maximin, it is necessary to solve the
stable strategy through the Solver.

PLAYER B
PLAYE

81 83 81 80 91
RA

84 83 86 86 82
 82 78 86 89 84
87 87 91 89 88
83 85 35 88 81

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using the
proposed Excel tool, according to the data in table 6.

Exercise 7. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the use of the
Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed activities, remember to
attach screenshots to your final collaborative work, the income and results table for the
Exercises raised. In this same space you can carefully review the Guide for the use of
educational resources.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment a single file
in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the participants in the space named
phase 4. Unit 2.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and monitoring
for the
environment
development
Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum of the
activity, the development and solution of each of the proposed
exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the resource

provided in the practical learning environment and upload the
screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document must be

Products to
submitted in pdf format, with the following specifications:
deliver by
student
Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working
Group_212066_TC2, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards, with the
following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively in the

consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the proposed
theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the recourse
online that performed in the practical learning environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that supports the
solution of Exercises.
 3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning environments

requires a solid planning process against suggested activities
for students. In this sense, when working on elements that
require the joint participation of the members of the group,
the need arises to articulate the learning strategy based on
Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the process of
student training. This approach emphasizes self-learning and
self-training, which are facilitated by the dynamics of the
Planning of activities approach and its eclectic constructivist conception.
for the development of
collaborative work In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is fostered, taught
and learned from problems that have meaning for students,
error is used as an opportunity to learn rather than punish
and an important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation. The
resources needed to solve the problems are in the Knowledge
Environment. Whenever you have considered these aspects
you can then begin to develop the phases corresponding to
the individual and collaborative work of the course.
Recognition of actors as subjects:

The students at the beginning of the course, in the space

destined to do so, will be recognized as participants of a
collaborative group, they will be able to present their
strengths to the service of the group and they will define the
channels of communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking links.) of
which will be available to interact effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the principle of

responsible action, students must design a work plan based
on the analytical reflection of the activity agenda, the
Roles to perform by the
evaluation plan, the guides and rubrics given for the
student in the
development of each academic activity . They will also design
collaborative group
a proposal for the planning of their collaborative work that
responds to the particularities and needs of the learning
strategy and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the principles

of collaborative work and implement them from the beginning
of the academic year and thereby ensure excellence in their
learning processes and the presentation of academic products
that meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the student,

this principle materializes when defining the ways and
mechanisms that will enable interaction in collaborative work.
 The intention is for students to participate in the different
spaces of Collaborative Work and the general forum of the
Initial Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute to the

process of the other peers. From this idea, in the same
scenario where interactions occur, students can contribute to
others in terms of suggesting greater participation to those
who do not intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that support the
process being carried out, among others that allow the team
to advance and that each one can strengthen its formative
process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should organize

their work to achieve the goals set. It is important that each
one assumes actions in the development of the work that
contribute in the achievement of good results of the
equipment. The aim is to ensure that the organization of
responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of individual
efforts, allow a successful collaborative exercise. It is also
important to consider aspects of evaluation in the student's
exercise, through the following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the process in

which the student, through an instrument designed (Survey)
recognizes and presents its strengths and difficulties in the
development of collaborative work. A score has not been
assigned on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow him / her
to progress in his / her formative process based on the
difficulties identified during the development of the activities,
their individual participation and their interaction with the
group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that constitutes the
final product of the debate, taking into account that the
contributions of all the participants have been included and
that only the participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of the alerts
to warn those who did not participate, that they will not be
included in the product to be delivered.
Roles and responsibility
for the delivery of Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the rules of
products by students submission of work required by the teacher.

Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the criteria

present in the rubric. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts so that you inform the other members of the team
in case any adjustments need to be made on the subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the products and
send the document in the stipulated times, using the
 resources destined for the shipment, and indicate to the other
partners that the delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are notified of

new developments and inform the teacher through the work
forum and messaging of the course, which has been sent the
document.
Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish (Translation of
version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of social
sciences. These are published under a Manual that allows you
to have access to the ways in which a scientific article should
Use of references be presented. Here you can find the most relevant aspects of
the sixth edition of the APA Standards Manual, such as
references, citations, preparation and presentation of tables
and figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article 99, the

mistakes that infringe upon the academic order, among
others, are the following: paragraph e) “To plagiarize is to
present as your own work the whole or part of a writing,
report, task or document of invention performed by another
person. It also implies the use of cites or lack of references,
or includes cites where there is no coincidence between them
and the reference” and paragraph f)”To reproduce, or copy
for profit, educational resources or results of research
Plagiarism policy products, which have intellectual rights reserved for the
University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the academic work

or evaluation, the score achieved will be zero (0.0)
without leading to disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic work of
any nature, the score achieved will be zero (0.0),
without leading to disciplinary measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric
Rubric evaluation format
Phase 4 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 2
Type of activity Individual activity X Collaborative activity X
Moment of
Initial Intermediate, unit 2 X Final
Evaluation
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student The student Participation in the
participated participated in the effective elaboration
Individual actively and forum, but his of the work is
student effectively in the contributions are limited, so the
participation in elaboration of the fairly effective in the achievement of the 8
the forum requested creation of the final objectives is
product. product. inadequate.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
The objectives of Although the subject
the work were matter is treated,
Use of criterion satisfactorily the body of the
The document
of Laplace, fulfilled, the document does not
leaves unresolved
Wald, etc. in Criterions of adequately solve the
the Criterions of
real situations Laplace, Wald, situation, the
Laplace, Wald, etc.,
that require etc. are solved conclusions are not 15
for which the
decision-making correctly and the pertinent according
optimality decisions
processes in the analysis of their to the results
are left unanswered.
results leads to an obtained by the
exercises 1 to 3
optimal decision- Criterions of
making. Laplace, Wald, etc.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
The document
The objectives of
leaves unresolved
Use of criterion the work were Although the theme
graphical methods
Game theory in fulfilled is treated in a partial
according to game
real situations satisfactorily and way, the value of
theory, so that the
that require the analysis of the the game and its 15
decisions and value
decision-making results leads to an decisions are not
of the game have
processes optimal decision- defined correctly.
not been
in the exercise 4 making.
determined.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Use of criterion Although the theme
The objectives of
Mixed strategies is treated in a partial The paper leaves
the work were
in real way, the value of unresolved game
satisfactorily
situations that fulfilled, the value the game, according theory according to
require to the mixed mixed strategies, so 10
of the game and
decision-making the decisions were strategies did not a correct decision is
lead to a correct not obtained.
processes in the correct.
decision making.
exercise 5
Until 10 points Until 5 points Until 0 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity
Aspects Score
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
The document document presents a
presents an basic structure, it
excellent lacks some elements The basic norms for
structure, all the of the requested the construction of
exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of the solved according comply with the nonexistent like the
12
Report to the proposed norms for written Criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
Criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of according to the
decisions. Criterions of the
course.

Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

The use of the Although the use of
The practical
practical the practical
environment of the
environment of environment in the
course has been no
the course is final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the excellent, the evident, the
that reason the
practical results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 15
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown analysis and
solve the Exercises
correctly in the conclusions
raised has been
final work pertinent to efficient
limited.
presented. decision making.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Final score 75