Probability, Statistics, and Data Analysis

Notes # 9

Complement Rule for Probability

If A is an event, then

P A'  1  P A

Example 1: A coin is tossed thrice. What is the

probability of obtaining at least one heads?
Solution:

Additive Rule for Probability

If A and B are events, then

P A  B   P A  PB   P A  B 

If they are mutually exclusive (disjoint), then

P A  B   P A  PB 

Example 2: If one card is randomly picked from a standard deck of 52 cards, the probability that the card will
be a red suit or a face card is
Solution:

Example 3: What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of dice is tossed?
Solution:

Example 4: The following figure shows a simplified circuit in which two components a and b are connected in
parallel. The circuit functions if either or both of the components are operational. From past experience, it is
known that the probability that component a is operating is 0.99, the probability that component b is operating
is 0.98, and the probability that both components a and b are operating is 0.9702. Find the probability that the
circuit is functioning.
Solution:
Conditional Probability

For any events A and B with P(B) > 0, the conditional probability of A given that B has occurred is

P A  B 
P A B  
P B 
Example 5: Roll a dice. What is the chance that you would get a 6, given that you have gotten an even number?
Solution:

Example 6: The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P(D) = 0.83; the probability that
it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D∩A) = 0.78. Find
the probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time.
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
Solutions:

Independent Events

If the occurrence of one event A does not affect, nor is affected by, the occurrence of another event B, then we
say that A and B are independent events. That is, A and B are independent if and only if the conditional
   
probabilities of either P A B  P A or P B A  PB  . Equivalently, A and B are independent if and only if
P A  B   P A  PB  . Otherwise, A and B are dependent.

Example 7: A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The probability
that the fire engine is available when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when
called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building, find the probability that both the
ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate independently.
Solution:

Example 8: Suppose that a letter is selected at random from the word TIP and another letter is selected at
random from the word ENGINEER. What is the probability that the same letter is chosen?
Solution:
Multiplicative Rule for Probability

If the events A and B can both occur with P(A) > 0, then

P A  B   P A  PB A

Example 9: A man has 6 keys, one of which will open his door. If he tries the keys at random, discarding the
first key that did not work, what is the probability that he will open the door on his second try?
Solution:

Example 10: Two cards are drawn one after the other without replacement from a standard deck. Find the
probability that the first card is a red ace and the second card is a 10 or a jack.
Solution:

Example 11: The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular illness is 0.7. Given that the doctor
makes an incorrect diagnosis, the probability that the patient files a lawsuit is 0.9. What is the probability that
the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis and the patient sues?
Solution: