News analysis Health Business

Candidates to spend Cooked or Across Africa, tech-enabled micro-

millions in 2021polls raw food insurance is the next big thing

Issue No. 593 Oct. 11 - 17 2019 Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8

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in fear of US travel ban

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Issue No. 593 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

News analysis Business Health Arts Motoring

Cover story
Visa denied
Uganda’s Who-is-Who live in fear of US travel ban

5 The Week
30 Comments
Speaker directs Attorney General
on idle and disorderly law Why we need more economists:
The economics profession should
not be so defensive in the face of
9 The Last Word
criticism over increasing inequality
Lessons from Tunisia’s elections:
Why her success at democratisation
is a result of the absence of foreign
32 Health
interference in her politics
Cooked or raw food
14 Analysis :How do they impact on
your tummy?
Candidates to spend millions
in 2021polls: In 2016 many spent
Shs500m -1bn
35 Arts & Culture
27 Business
Maria Naita, Uganda’s master
Across Africa, tech-enabled micro-insurance is sculptress dies: She challenged
the next big thing: But policymakers across the norms of traditional male-
region need to implement policies and practices dominated art making
that stimulate growth

STRATEGY & EDITORIAL DIRECTOR: Andrew M. Mwenda WRITERS:Ronald Musoke, Ian Katusiime,
MANAGING EDITOR: Joseph Were Patricia Akankwatsa, Julius Businge.
INVESTIGATIONS EDITOR: Haggai Matsiko DESIGN/LAYOUT: Sarah Ngororano
BUSINESS EDITOR: Isaac Khisa CARTOONIST: Harriet Jamwa

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2 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
 inbox

“They picked me up and took me

straight to see him [CDF Muhoozi]
in Mbuya military Barracks. I was
eventually taken to Makindye
Military Police barracks. I am not
bitter but I am disappointed that I
could be treated like that at my level.”
Gen. Kale Kayihura, ex-IGP
The National Resistance Movement Charimpa Kijaji responds to questions at a press conference
on Hoima Parliamentary and local council bye-election. Looking on (middle) is the party’s electoral
commission Chairman Tanga Odoi and another official Alisemera Babiiha. The conference was held on
Oct.03 at Nakasero, Kampala.   INDEPENDENT/ ALFRED OCHWO

The Vice President

of Uganda Edward
Kiwanuka Ssekandi
(R) and Minister for
Energy and Mineral
Development, Eng.
Irene Muloni having
a light moment “We have launched a code exercise
during the 8th
annual Mineral named Commander Imara to test
Wealth Conference ourselves on basic and combat fitness.
held on Oct.2-3
at Serena Hotel.  This is a way of ensuring we are ready
INDEPENDENT/ ALFRED at all times.”Lt. Gen. Peter Elwelu, UPDF
OCHWO
Commander Land Forces

President
Museveni and
First Lady Janet
Kataaha Museveni
being received
by Speaker “I don’t interfere with student affairs
of Parliament unless they come to me. And I was
Rebecca Kadaga
and her deputy reading on social media that I was giving
Jacob Oulanyah out Shs10 million, Shs5 million per
at the 21st person. I wish I had that money, I would
National Prayer
Breakfast meeting have used it for something else more
held on Oct.8 at useful other than sponsoring students
Pearl of Africa
Hotel to impeach their president.” Prof. Eli
Katunguka, VC Kyambogo University

Officials from Moroto district Ugandan drivers million litre Fuel storage tanks
11 who have been arrested by State
House Anti-Corruption Unit
37 detained in DR
Congo
70 whose construction will be
completed early next year

Oct. 11 - 17 2019 3
week
Search for next IGG on as Mulyagonja returns to Judiciary
The next Inspector General frustration at being IGG. Mulyagonja
of Government (IGG) will have has always confided in friends how
to struggle with untouchable she misses the judiciary. She was
government officials accused of appointed in 2012 and he contract
stealing government money while renewed in 2016. Museveni surprised
also being undermined by the Ugandans during a State of the Nation
increasingly influential State House Address in 2018 when he said the IGG
Anti-Corruption led by Lt. Col. Edith was no longer effective. In December
Nakalema. This is the dilemma IGG 2018, Museveni commissioned the State
Justice Irene Mulyagonja (Pictured) House Anti-Corruption Unit which
found herself in this year. She applied has for all intents and purposes taken
for a vacancy at the Court of Appeal over the anti-corruption role arresting
and now with her appointment to the suspects all over the country. Word
latter court by President Museveni, the has it that Bugweri County MP Abdul
IGG position will be vacant in a few Katuntu is being touted as the next IGG.
weeks. Mulyagonja had long voiced her

Helmets a must for school Nakaayi, Cheptegei bag gold at IAAF championship
children, says Minister Halima Nakaayi (Pictured) won gold magic in the final lap of the 10,000 metre
in the women’s 800metre race at the 2019 race to beat Ethiopia’s Yomif Kejelcha to
The Minister of State for Primary Education, IAAF World Championship in Doha, the gold. His latest triumph means only
Rosemary Seninde has said that all school Qatar to join Uganda’s ever growing list of an Olympic medal is missing from the
going children using boda bodas as a means of elite athletes. Nakaayi ran 1:58.04 breaking prized collection of the 23-year-old.
transport must put on helmets to avoid nega- the national record and registering her Cheptegei is the double Commonwealth
tive effects of road accidents. She was speaking name among the young athletes to look Champion, World Cross-country king
at the ‘Heads Up initiative’ a new campaign by out for at the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo. and now Gold Medalist at the IAAF
fuel distributor, Vivo Energy Uganda and Safe Uganda wrapped itself in more glory World Championships.
Boda at Nateete Junior School on Oct.04. The when Joshua Cheptegei pulled out some
initiative aims to curb road accidents involving
children using boda bodas. “We commend both
Vivo Energy Uganda and Safe Boda Uganda
for proactively seeking to address this gap in
road safety, especially for our school children,”
Seninde said. She added that the risks that “we
expose our children to while they journey to
school every day should be addressed by all
if we are to ensure full attendance of govern-
ment programs such as Universal Primary
Education.” She said this move will support
government’s efforts to scale up the levels of
literacy across the nation. The first phase of the
campaign will benefit 12 public schools located
in high traffic areas of Kampala district. Vivo’s
Managing Director Gilbert Assisi, said the part-
nership will see child helmets donated to the
school management who will distribute and
manage their use among their pupils who use
motorcycle transportation to attend school.

Museveni appoints 15 new Judges to High Court, Court of Appeal

Immaculate Busingye, Esta
Nambayo, Victoria Katamba Nakintu
Nkwanga, Jane Kajuga, Vincent
Emmy Mugabo, Isah Serunkuma,
Jeanne Rwakakoko, Phillip Odoki,
Isaac Muwata, Boniface Wamala,
Suzan Abinyo are some of the new
appointees as judges to the High Court
of Uganda. The others are Muzamiru
Kibeedi Mutangula, Monica Mugenyi,
Irene Mulyagonja (IGG) who have
been appointed to the Court of Appeal
which also sits as the Constitutional
Court. Most of the appointees were
already in administrative positions.
Jane Kajuga was the Spokesperson of
the Office of the DPP, Esta Nambayo
was Chief Registrar while Justice
Mugenyi is the Principal Judge of the
East Africa Court of Justice based in
Tanzania while Mulyagonja is IGG.
Chief Justice Bart Katureebe said
Uganda has very few judges which
makes case backlog a more difficult
problem.

4 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

Speaker directs Attorney General on idle and disorderly law
Speaker of Parliament Rebecca Kadaga
has directed Attorney General to table a
Bill for amendment of the Penal Code Act,
the offence of being idle and disorderly.
This was after President Museveni
ordered police to release anyone being
held on the charge of idle and disorderly.
Kadaga was prompted after Kyaka South
One of the Bombardiers recieve a water salute upon touching down at Entebbe International Airport
Uganda Airlines adds two bombardiers to its fleet
Uganda Airlines is expanding routes after
receiving two more Bombardier CRJ900s.
The two touched down at Entebbe Interna-
tional Airport on Oct.07 from Montreal Can-
ada where they are manufactured amidst
excitement by the public, company staff and
government officials led by State Minister
for Works Gen. Katumba Wamala. Wamala
said that the growth in fleet to four planes
means that the national carrier would open
up new regional routes to expand coverage.
He said that government is committed to
honoring its promise of bringing in bigger
planes for the long routes of Europe, China
and other destinations come 2020 and 2021.
“All the plans are fully paid for and are
Dial *133*2#
for more bundles
MP Jackson Kafuuzi told the House that
Museveni’s directive is not enough to
repeal the law since it is provided for
in the Statute Books. Kafuuzi proposed
that the AG work with the Law Reform
Commission to repeal or amend the law.
The law was enacted in the colonial era
and is now considered outmoded. “I
owned by the government of Uganda,” he
said. Wamala urged staff of Uganda Airlines
to demonstrate high levels of integrity and
accountability while running the Airline
for it to achieve the set targets. “The stakes
are high; it is not easy to run an airline busi-
ness,” he added. Uganda Airlines reopened
on August 28 for East African region routes
plus Somalia after nearly two decades of no
show in the skies due to its mismanagement
that threw it in a sea of debts. With the new
aircraft, new routes – Kinshasa, Zanzibar,
Asmara, Hargeisa, Lusaka, Harare, Johan-
nesburg, South Africa, Djibouti and Addis
Ababa will be added to the network.
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
week
hear they arrest my people in Kampala
on ‘idle and disorderly charges’. I don’t
want to hear it anymore. Stop arresting
my people,” Museveni said, adding: “My
people write it down and remind me, I am
going to cancel that instrument.” Critics
say the timing of Museveni’s directive is
politically motivated.
Kabale Hospital tops
maternity health survey
The annual health sector performance
report shows that Kabale Regional Referral
Hospital has the least maternal death risk
at 112 per 100,000 deliveries down from 136
per 100,000 live births in the last financial
year. Lira Regional Referral Hospital is
second with a score of 120. Fort Portal and
Hoima hospitals are currently the worst
places to give birth: at 634 and 839 per
100,000 deliveries. The maternal mortality
ratio is directly got from data collected
through registration systems, household
surveys or census reports. Dr. Sophie
Namasopo Oleja, the director of Kabale Hos-
pital attributed Kabale’s turn around to close
monitoring of high-risk mothers. Oleja said
as a result of Kabale being a hilly area, high
risk mothers are observed and followed up
during antenatal care.
AfricellUG @AfricellUG
*terms and conditions apply |
Regulated by Uganda Communications Commission
5
week
Lessons from High Court ruling on Lusanja land
The High Court ruling ordering 127
residents off a 3.89 acre piece of land in
Lusanja, Wakiso serves many lessons for
politicians, administrators and the general
public in urban areas like Kampala and
Wakiso. One of the reasons why court
threw out the residents is due to a poor
demarcation of boundaries. Justice Tadeo
Asiimwe ordered Kampala Capital City
Authority (KCCA) to put clear demarca-
tions and boundaries separating Kampala
from Wakiso district for more cases of the
kind in future. According to the evidence
presented in court, the 127 residents had
agreements stating that their land is at
Lusanja in Wakiso District and acquired
their Bibanja from Crispa Bitarabeho who
had no right to sell the land. The court
faulted the LC1 chairperson of Lusanja
village Samuel Kibuuka for confusing the
Boda boda cyclists urged on road safety
As Uganda continues to grapple with
the increasing number of road accidents
involving boda bodas, several corporate
firms and non-state actors have joined the
government to find solutions. On Oct.03,
Uganda Breweries Limited engaged close
to 100 cyclists on possible measures to
6 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
residents by signing residents’ agreements
for Kampala yet he administers under
Lusanjja in Wakiso district. Justice Tadeo
ruled that businessman Medard Kicon-
co is the lawful owner of the contested
Lusanja land located on the Mpererwe-Ki-
teezi road. The judge also ruled that the
land was bought by Kiconco in 2016 from
the administrator Paul Katabazi Bitarabe-
ho. The disgruntled residents will have to
look for shelter elsewhere after High Court
ordered them to leave within 30 days from
Oct.4. Court. The court ruling left the resi-
dents in agony and one of them collapsed
immediately. Court observed that the 127
residents bought the disputed land from
the wrong person and therefore trespassed
on Kiconco’s land who is the registered
owner having purchased it authentically
from Paul Katabazi Bitabareho in 2016.
reduce road accidents at its headquarters
in Luzira, a Kampala suburb. They were
reminded to follow road rules like riding
at limited speeds, wearing helmets, avoid
use of mobile phones while riding and to
avoiding drink-riding. On average, Uganda
loses 10 people every day in road traffic
Trump battles impeachment
US President Donald Trump is
treatment the possible impeachment
he faces as another of the battles he has
fought since he was elected three years
ago. A whistleblower complaint over
a call Trump made to the President
of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky has
threatened to swallow his presidency. In
the phone call, Trump asked Zelensky
to investigate Joe Biden, a presidential
candidate who is a frontrunner on
the Democratic ticket. In turn, Trump
unfroze military aid to Ukraine as a
quid pro quo for what Zelensky would
do in turn. Democrats in Congress are
united in the impeachment process but
Republicans have stayed silent, for fear
of backlash amongst their voters who
strongly support Trump.
crashes according to a 2018 UN road safety
report on Uganda. The Uganda Police
Force says 50% of road accidents in the
country are caused by boda bodas with
the highest numbers registered in urban
centres like Kampala.
Humour Did you know?
Microsoft has dual-
screen phone

When Microsoft unleashed a

cavalcade of new gadgetry at a special
media event in New York on Oct.02, the
product that stole the show was a dual-
Ghost of Hoima haunt opposition screen phone that was unveiled ahead
of an anticipated release for Christmas
next year.
Called Microsoft Duo, it’s the tech
giant’s first smartphone since the
Microsoft Lumia 650 in 2016. After that
failed to ignite the market, Microsoft
seemingly gave up on mobile because
of intense competition from iOS and
Android. But now the PC-maker is
working with Google to bring Android
apps to the device, coupled with
Microsoft’s productivity experiences
with the likes of Word and Excel.
Speaking about the device, Panos
Panay, chief product officer at
Microsoft, said: ‘It has to fit in your
pocket. You will be more productive
on two screens.’ The Duo follows a
new trend in smartphone design which
emerged with other foldables, notably
Samsung Galaxy Fold and Huawei
NSSF is struck with unclaimed benefits because the companies that set it did not clearly specify the recipients Mate X. As well as the Duo, Microsoft
also revealed a foldable tablet called the
Surface Neo running an adapted version
of Microsoft’s operating system, known
as Windows 10X. Like the Duo, it will
also will not be available until late next
year, but Panay said the company was
unveiling the technology early ‘to bring
developers on the journey with us’.
But the two new devices were far
from the only things Microsoft showed
off in New York. The company also
revealed four major products due for
release later this month, including an
updated Surface Laptop 3, a Surface Pro
7 and the Surface Pro X, which are all
said to feature greater performance and
battery while being lighter and thinner.
The Pro 7 has been given a major
overhaul internally with Microsoft
claiming the new device is twice as fast
as the previous generation thanks to
new processors. A USB-C connection
Government ha gazette the red beret as military attire and banned civilians from wearing it has also been added.

Oct. 11 - 17 2019

Inbox
Letters are
welcome !
The Editor welcomes short and
concise letters from our esteemed
readers on topical issues. Please
send them to:
The Editor, The Independent
Publications Ltd,
P.O Box 3304,
Plot 82/84 Kanjokya St,
Kamwokya.
Kampala,Uganda.
Email: editor@independent.co.ug
Hoima election
winners, losers
Refer to: “The Hoima elec-
tion: How Museveni escaped
being bitten by Bobi Wine” (The
Independent Oct.04). If Andrew
Mwenda’s take that “the NRM
narrowly won the by-election for
woman MP in Hoima district”
basing on Harriet Businge’s
33,000 votes (54%) and FDC’s
Asinansi Nyakato’s 29,000 votes
(46%), then your conclusion that
the main outcome of the by-elec-
tion was that Museveni’s candi-
date, Harriet Businge had won,
while Bobi Wine’s had failed is
only apparently correct. Andrew
Mwenda further indicates that
“the outcome of the Hoima
election was a major setback for
NRM, which has historically
won Hoima with huge mar-
gins”. He further illustrates that
“in 2006, the FDC candidate for
Woman MP in Hoima got only
15% of the votes that the NRM
candidate got; in 2011 only 10%
and in 2016 25%. In this by elec-
tion, the FDC candidate got 86%
of the votes the NRM candidate
got”. Wouldn’t I be therefore
justified to refute your earlier
conclusion and say what the
facts point to: the main outcome
of this by-election was that Har-
riet Businge’s prime-sponsor lost
while the Asinansi Nyakato’s
principal “talisman” won?
Pascal Bylon Businge
8 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
News analysis Health Business
Torture chambers Drug resistant Total Oil E&P frustrated but
or safe houses? bacteria in DR Congo willing to go on with project
Issue No. 592 Oct. 04 - 10 2019
Ushs 5,000,Kshs 200, RwF 1,500, SDP 8
Hoima and 2021
election battles
Different ways opposition plans
to force Museveni out of power
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http://twitter.com/#!/ugandatalks
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www.facebook.com/TheIndependentMagazineUganda
www.independent.co.ug
Oil companies will come begging
Refer to: “Pouyanne: Musev- upper hand in dictating rent attitude of the IOC which will
eni’s oil trouble has a name” on its resource, knowing that change. No deal is better than a
(The Independent Sept.27). Oil sooner or later IOCs will come bad deal.
is a finite resource and its dis- back begging for it. Moreover,
covery is diminishing, almost geological uncertainty has been Omara Christo Balmoyi
reaching peak discovery. With reduced, the other hurdles (or
that is mind Uganda has an seemingly) are just a matter of
Uganda can survive without oil Total Oil dispute
Refer to: “Pouyanne: Museve-
ni’s oil trouble has a name” (The
ed on its rapidly expanding
population and agricultural
shouldn’t be resolved
Independent Sept.27). Uganda’s earnings from coffee, cotton etc Refer to: “Pouyanne: Museve-
population of 40million plus building universities, hospitals, ni’s oil trouble has a name” (The
who need shelter, food, cloth- etc and this agriculture and a Independent Sept.27). Uganda
ing, banking, security is a much
greater resource than oil will
rapidly expanding population
are still around and will likely
is perhaps unlucky with geogra-
phy as the $20 billion investment
ever be to Uganda’s economy.
So its hubris for Total and other
be around in the next 100 years.
The oil revenues if they ever
required here to get the oil pro-
duced and transported to mar-
oil companies to imagine Ugan- come will supplement this ket is simply too big and far too
da’s economy will grind to halt economic foundation and the risky. So this dispute could not
for not exploiting a few billion hullabaloo about oil this, oil that have come at a better time for
barrels of oil. Lest you have for- is uncalled for excitement. the oil companies – much better
gotten, for the past 100years of to fall out now before you invest
Opio
Uganda’s existence has depend- that $20 billion than afterwards.
They now have a last chance to
Uganda needs Total (E&P) more step back and ask themselves
`were we actually stark raving
Refer to: “Pouyanne: previous “go invest decision”, mad to think of investing $20Bn
Museveni’s oil trouble has What comes to the risk analysis in an oil project in Uganda in
a name” (The Independent irrespective of sunk cost are the first place?’ The answer of
Sept.27). Well Uganda needs three things going forward. course is absolutely yes! They
Total (E&P) more than Total Taxation, expropriation either will lose it all to corruption
needs Uganda. Whether we in present regime or any change or expropriation, every single
argue from the debt analysis of government, and security cent. So as a shareholder, I am
point of view or living of tenure of the concessions hoping this will not be resolved
standards etcetra. Uganda granted. Just as governments as I want them to reverse out of
came to the world picture after communicate, corporations this investment altogether while
the discovery of oil short of that communicate too. So Uganda there is still time as Uganda will
it was only known as General ends up a no investment zone destroy these companies. The
Idi Amin’s country of Origin. in natural resources for majors ordinary Ugandan citizen would
This current impasse and show and medium companies. So not have benefited anyway, the
down only serves rather as a sacrifice now picture the future. big men would have taken it all.
warning to the Total Investment Moses Nyeko Biggness Lebowski
decision desk to rethink their
Museveni escaped Bobi Wine in Hoima
Refer to: “The Hoima election: How Museveni that one paragraph and to the last sentence therein.
escaped being bitten by Bobi Wine” (The Indepen- “And it does not matter what blocks the voter’s
dent Oct.04). “According to many election observ- path.” And you can put that in capitals. Because
ers and politicians that The Independent spoke to, the NRM/Museveni did everything; including
the opposition loss in Hoima was largely down throwing in the proverbial sink, to make sure that
to some well-known campaign issues; including this, of all elections was “won”. Whatever else you
that a charismatic campaign amounts to nothing say in this article is just a whitewash and justifying
if it cannot get voters into the voting booth. And it the unjustifiable and what everyone else, apart
does not matter what blocks the voter’s path.” All from yourself, can see.
that has been said in your “analysis” boils down to Ejakait Engoraton

Lessons from Tunisia’s elections
By Andrew M. Mwenda
Why her success at democratisation is a result of the
absence of foreign interference in her politics
T
his week Tunisians voted in the
second parliamentary elections
since the 2011 Arab Spring. Over
15,000 candidates vied for the 217
parliamentary seats. There was very low
voter turnout for these elections, which
“experts” say is because people have lost
hope in elections. The economic situation
in the country is worse than under the
government of Ahmed Ben Ali, the long
serving president, whom Tunisians
overthrew in January 2011. The elections
have been held against the backdrop of high
inflation and unemployment, the problems
the revolution sought to cure.
Yet in spite of these problems, Tunisia still
offers hope. It was the birthplace of the Arab
Spring. Today it is the only country where
the Arab Spring did not degenerate into
civil war or revert to military rule. It has a
functioning democratic system, in spite of
its many challenges. No political party has
capacity to secure a majority in parliament;
so governments can only be formed
through coalitions. This denies the country
opportunities for a strong government to
deal decisively with its problems but limits
the risk of winner-take-all politics and their
attendant problems.
The other countries in the Arab Spring
– Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Libya – have
faired badly. The last three degenerated
into state collapse and have not recovered
since. Indeed, in Yemen and Libya, the state
and economy have totally collapsed and
warlords control these nations, supported
by foreign interests. Life reflects Thomas
Hobbes’ state of nature: “nasty, brutish
and short.” Syria was saved from a similar
fate by the intervention of Russia, which
sought to prop the state. All these three were
not client states of the USA, and that may
explain their misery.
Egypt, a client state of the USA, was saved
and I think perhaps because of its strategic
importance to America in the Middle
East. After toying with democracy, which
threatened to lead to an Islamic theocracy,
it reverted (with American acquiescence)
to military rule. So today the hopes of the
Arab Spring have turned into tragedies. The
fact that Tunisia did not go this way and is
sustaining a functioning democracy is an
important reference point for our analysis of
democratic development in the Middle East
and elsewhere.
I have always been skeptical about foreign
The Last Word
assistance whether it is given in form of
money, technical expertise, weapons, ideas,
lectures and whatever other guises it may
dress itself. This is especially so when such
assistance plays a decisive role in the destiny
of a country. If it were done via arms-length
interactions where the main struggle is
led and controlled by domestic forces – in
personnel, aspirations and ideas – it would
be productive. But where foreign assistance
is the central fulcrum through which a
struggle – whether social or economic – is
conducted, it produces disaster.
The revolution in Tunisia took the high
priests of democracy in the Western World
by surprise. They woke up one morning
only to find a long serving president had
been toppled by a popular uprising and had
escaped to another country. Unfortunately
for the high priests of democracy and
fortunately for Tunisians, outsiders could
not claim to have saved the people of
Tunisia from tyranny. This left the national
politicians a lot of legroom to negotiate the
future of their country without dictates from
abroad. The result has been a functioning,
even though chaotic, democracy.
When similar revolutions erupted in
Egypt, Syria, Yemen and Libya, the high
priests of democracy hijacked the struggle.
Then U.S. president Barrack Obama forced
Hosni Mubarrak of Egypt to resign. In Libya,
the U.S. supported the British and the French
militarily to remove Muammar Gaddafi. In
Syria, protests degenerated into civil war.
America financed terrorist organisations
to remove President Bashir Al Asaad. The
country degenerated into civil war and
the worst refugee crisis. Yemen followed
a similar trajectory as the high priests of
democracy sought to take control.
Why does foreign assistance/interference
undermine democratic development?
Democracy is built on negotiations and
compromise. Therefore outcomes cannot
be determined in advance – by setting a
blueprint of what ought to be the result
based on a theory in a textbook. A theory
can give an idea of where a country wants
to go. But the functioning of democracy
requires that the contending forces in the
country at a particular period in time find
accommodation with each other. In such
negotiations tradeoffs, concessions and
compromises are the building blocks of
success.
No country demonstrates this better than
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
opinion
the USA. When it was founded in 1781 and
given its current constitution in 1789, it faced
this challenge. Many of its founders believe
in equality and wanted slavery ended.
But other social forces benefiting from
slavery wanted it to remain. A compromise
was reached that allowed the union to be
formed and become functional. On nearly
everything – to grant poor white men the
vote and later to women and blacks, or
to accept gay marriage and abortion etc.,
Americans have had to negotiate and to
compromise among themselves.
Yet this lesson is lost to Americans when
promoting similar ideals abroad. Today
Americans believe that once they have
reached a particular outcome, other nations
should follow her example and adopt reform
within a week. This denies these nations
politics. Tunisia is succeeding because its
nationals have sufficient independence to
make the necessary bargains, give critical
concessions and negotiate the necessary
compromises. Islamist political parties today
play an important role in the democratic
politics of Tunisia without the country
becoming a theocracy.
The lesson we draw from the Arab
spring turned winter is that democracy is
actually a citizen effort. Foreign interference,
however well intentioned, is likely to
create more problems than it seeks to
solve. This is because powerful foreigners
create incentives that negatively impact
on national politicians. Realising that they
have the U.S. and the EU behind them,
local politicians find it more politically
profitable to grandstand, and project
themselves as the champions of democracy
demanded by Washington, Paris, London
and Brussels. Thus, instead of compromising
to accommodate domestic realities, they
make unrealistic demands based largely on
a textbook prescription of democracy. The
result is often stalemate.
This way, foreign involvement makes
it difficult to make the hard decisions of
compromise. National politicians enter
the arena to please foreigners, thereby
making politics a contest of who is a “pure
democrat”. But this pushes domestic realities
to the backseat thereby undermining the
construction of a shared understanding. The
lesson is that democracy only works when
the driving force are citizens.
amwenda@independent.co.ug
9
cover story

Visa denied
Uganda’s Who-is-Who live in
fear of US travel ban

By Ian Katusiime

As if U.S. sanctions slapped on President Yoweri

Museveni’s former right hand man, Gen. Kale Kayihura
for his role as Inspector of General of Police were not bad
enough, another top government official, Pius Bigirimana
was allegedly denied a visa to the U.S. according to a
report by the New Vision, a state controlled newspaper.

10 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
B
igirimana is the Secretary to
the Judiciary and a go-to-man
for President Museveni. He
has served as Permanent
Secretary in the Office of the
Prime Minister and at the
Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social De-
velopment.
Bigirimana denies the U.S. denied him a
visa and says, according to the New Vision
newspaper of Sept. 30, there was a delay in
the processing of his visa application by the
U.S. government and he was told to “hold
on”.
But the Bigirimana incident and another
in which officials of the ruling party NRM
failed to travel to the U.S. over visa related
complications have prompted discussion
in the Ugandan public on the diplomatic
undercurrents between U.S. and Uganda in
light of the Kayihura sanctions.
Asked by The Independent to comment on
whether these events are not a sign of fray-
ing relations, U.S. Embassy Spokesperson,
Philip Demon, said what happens at the
embassy visa desk is not related to politics.
“U.S. officials make visa decisions strictly
based on U.S. law, not political ebbs and
flows. Visa records are confidential under
U.S. law; therefore, for privacy reasons the
U.S. government does not comment on indi-
vidual visa cases.”
Uganda’s Foreign Ministry would usually
be expected to give an official government
position on the American visa scare but the
current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sam
Kutesa, appears to be hobbled by a U.S.
travel ban.
Kutesa, a longtime top Museveni con-
fidant and former president of the 69th
session of the UN General Assembly is
currently in a precarious position as far as
the U.S is concerned. In December 2018, a
U.S. court convicted Patrick Ho Chi Ping,
a Chinese businessman, of bribing Kutesa
with $500,000 to bag an energy contract in
Uganda.
“They can easily embarrass him,” a dip-
lomatic source told The Independent about
Kutesa last year before the conviction of
Ping.
When asked to comment on rumours of
Kutesa being persona non grata in America,
Dimon refused to comment.
Meanwhile Kutesa who as minister
of foreign affairs should have ordinarily
responded to the U.S. after the sanctions
were announced, stayed silent.
In an interview, the Minister of State for
International Affairs, Henry Okello Oryem
told The Independent that the government
is in discussion with the American State
Department regarding the Visa denials and
travel bans.
“We are engaging the State department on
the Kayihura sanctions, even on Bigirimana
because we want to understand better,”
Oryem said.
President Trump
President Museveni
Oryem also told The Independent that
“There is no warrant of arrest or any charge
against Sam Kutesa”. “They have not even
initiated any criminal or civil suit against
Kutesa,” he added.
In an interview, Ofwono Opondo, the
government spokesman told The Observer
newspaper the government would like the
U.S. to release the list of Ugandans it has
blacklisted.
“The problem is, they (U.S.) are not telling
us who the blacklisted officials are,” Ofwono
said.
There has been increased speculation
that the snub of Ugandan officials at the
American visa desk indicates a decline in the
relationship between the U.S. government
and President Yoweri Museveni. According
to this narrative, the Americans no longer
need Museveni for the main mission he has
handled for them; in Somalia.
President Donald Trump has generally
degraded the role of the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) now in its
twelfth year and preferred instead to use
American elite troops, drones, and direct
collaboration with Somalia security Forces
for the job. America has trained local forces
called Danab (Lightning) Special Forces to
spearhead its missions.
On Oct.02, the U.S. reopened its embas-
sy in Somalia, 28 years after it was closed
during a civil war that followed the ouster of
then-Somali President Gen. Siad Barre that
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
cover story
continues to date.
Since 2018, the U.S. Ambassador to Soma-
lia Donald Yamamoto has been operating
out of Nairobi, Kenya.
In testimony to the Senate Committee on
Foreign Relations, Yamamoto reportedly
listed “shifting security responsibilities from
AMISOM” among his main objectives.
Yamamoto told journalists in Somalia that
he wants increased visibility of American
forces in Somalia.
“We’ve got to be seen. We’ve got to be
present,” he said.
The reopening of the embassy coincided
with the conclusion of Somali Partnership
Forum, a two-day meeting between Somali
leaders and the international community
held in Mogadishu for the first time that dis-
cussed the fate of AMISOM.
Earlier in September AMISOM and UN
Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) officials
met for five days in Mogadishu to develop
a comprehensive roadmap to guide the AU
mission’s activities and operations until
2021 when AMISOM is scheduled to leave
under the Somali Transition Plan. AMISOM
is now operating under the revised Concept
of Operations (CONOPs) which deals with
activities and operations until AMISOM
hands over security responsibilities to the
Somali Security Forces by 2021.
Before that when the Peace and Security
Council met in August to review progress on
AMISOM, it also called for facilitation of the
drawdown of 1000 AMISOM troops in line
with the UN Security Council Resolutions.
Uganda has 6000 troops fighting Al Shabaab
in Somalia, in a war where the UN meets
Uganda’s logistical costs. But with the UN
looking for a way to end AMISOM, Musev-
eni could be looking at uncertain future
geopolitically. As Museveni’s job in Somalia
ends, America appears to be turning its back
on him.
Moses Khisa, a Ugandan political scientist
professor who lectures at North Carolina
State University in the U.S. says the West
have no permanent friend with Museveni
being no exception. “Whoever can serve
their interests, especially for the Americans
the primary issues being economic and secu-
rity, they will move with that person.”
Khisa says that the U.S. and EU are hang-
ing on with Museveni because of issues of
security and the refugee situation, “But they
are not blind to his waning clout and precari-
ous hold on power.”
He says Museveni’s image among diplo-
mats in the West was altered due to failure to
negotiate a way out of power.
“You only need to speak to western diplo-
mats in private. They may still praise him in
public and show a modicum of respect for
him but in reality they no longer hold him
in the high regard they did in the 1990s,” he
told The Independent in an email.
Khisa says the view of Museveni in the
West as a foresighted and reform-minded
11
cover story
AMISOM troops in Somalia are in a race against time to leave the country.
leader is long gone.
“The West has kept their support for him
at a modest level in part because he can
make the argument that he’s still popular
inside the country. But we know that Musev-
eni’s support largely stands on quicksand
and is more rented than genuine.”
According to Khisa, longevity in power
is revealing Museveni’s character and inev-
itably affecting his relations with Western
powers. “What has changed is Museveni’s
own posturing. He used to present himself
as a doyen of democracy,” Khisa says, “Now
he has to justify why he can’t stick to basic
norms of democracy like fairness in compe-
tition. He has been good at duplicity but that
is not sustainable.”
He says the slightest internal rupture will
bury Museveni and the West will move on.
Khisa buys into the popular claim that
in the event of the smallest threatening
challenge to Museveni’s power, the West
will abandon him and indirectly shore up
the forces arraigned against him. This has
been argued due to the palpable anxiety and
frustration built up over the last 33 years in
12 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
Uganda under Museveni.
Uganda and President Museveni
specifically, has been a strong ally of the
Americans in the Africa Great Lakes region.
An African strongman with a difference
It has been said that when the Museveni
hold of power – now in its 33rd year and one
of the longest in the world - eventually ends,
one question many will ponder is how he
was able to work his way into the embrace of
different American administrations without
major fallout.
Museveni has been a welcome guest at
the White House from 1987 when Ronald
Reagan first invited him, to George H.W.
Bush, eight years of Bill Clinton and eight
years of Barack Obama. Only the current
occupant of the White House, Donald
Trump, appears to be a major shift.
Unlike most of Africa’s strong men,
Museveni has enjoyed a much more
favourable relationship with the America.
Libyan leader Gaddafi was a pariah in the
West for all his 42-year-reign.
In 2011, a coalition of France, U.K. and
U.S. seized on popular protests in Libya
and ousted Gaddafi in months after the
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)
imposed a no-fly zone over the country.
Gadaffi was brutally killed and Libya razed
to the ground in the process.
Robert Mugabe who died last month
ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist albeit
under heavy American sanctions from
which the Zimbabwean economy never
recovered. The other long serving African
strong men like Cameroon’s 86 year-old
President Paul Biya, and Teodoro Obiang
Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea are
not that influential geopolitically.
Omar-al-Bashir, Sudan’s ruler over 30
years, who was haunted by the West was
removed by his own army after events in the
country decidedly turned against him.
For Museveni it has been a mix of
re-invention, political dexterity at home
and knowing when to turn to China, an
American rival.
When Uganda passed an anti-gay law in
February 2014, it caused so much negative
press for the country and Museveni in

Europe and North America. The law was
struck down by the courts six months later
on the technicality of lack of quorum. It was
just on the eve of a US-Africa summit in
Washington, the American capital, which
Museveni attended.
Despite this, the hypothesis holds that
Museveni’s continued stable relations
with the U.S. of more than 30 years could
continue pending the non-occurrence of
a black swan event in Uganda in the near
future.
Barring popular protests akin to those that
swept fellow strongmen like Sudan’s Omar-
al-Bashir out of power in April this year, and
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, it
is safe to say Museveni would have enjoyed
uninterrupted relations with America
despite bumps being seen today.
There is a belief that recent developments,
mainly the rise of 37-year-old Robert
Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, a pop star-
turned-politician as a poster child of the anti-
Museveni resistance, have given America
and its Western allies a chance to look at one
of their favourite strongmen in a different
light.
Although Bobi Wine is a novice in interna-
tional realpolitik, it is not far-fetched to say
he has excited hawkish officials in the vari-
ous hierarchies of the U.S. government.
This theory also contends that the con-
tinued persecution of Bobi Wine and police
brutality towards opposition politicians has
sullied the international standing of 75-year-
old Museveni as an elder statesman not just
on the African continent which has a bulging
aspirant but unemployed youth population
but across the globe where he was heralded
in the 1990s as a new breed of visionary
leaders.
The reputational decline of Museveni
peaked in August 2018 when images of Bobi
Wine, writhing in pain due to alleged tor-
ture, went viral on social media. Bobi Wine
claimed torture at the hands of Museveni’s
guards during a violent by-election in Arua
at the time.
The alleged torture of Bobi Wine sparked
an outcry across cities like Nairobi, Lagos,
Berlin, London and New York in an age of
Twitter and Facebook where campaigns are
amplified by smartphones and hashtags.
Museveni, it is believed, was compelled to
skip the 73rd UN General Assembly in 2018
as a result of the Bobi Wine backlash. Just a
year ago in 2017, Museveni had already wid-
ened the gulf between him and the youthful
generation Bobi Wine leads when his NRM
party pushed a constitutional amendment
through parliament to remove the presiden-
tial age limit to enable him run in 2021.
Minister responds
Henry Okello Oryem, minister of state for
international affairs dismisses the emergence
of Bobi Wine and diplomatic incidents as a
sign of anything.
“At the end of the day, those in power in
America know who is in charge,” Oryem
told The Independent.
“They don’t just back a leader for
the sake,” he said and referred to those
schmoozing with Bobi Wine with ideas of
fronting him as “jokers”.
“Those in authority know whom they
back, they can meet Bobi Wine and we will
not object as the government of the day,”
Oryem added.
Oryem also cautions on the language of
diplomats. “We engage them on all issues
but remember what they say in the press is
not what they say in private.”
He says the Kayihura sanctions are not a
sign of diminishing relations with the U.S.
government.
According to Oryem, some officials in the
U.S. may meet with people like Bobi Wine
but just as a matter of securing their interests
among new or future leaders but not as a
sign of shifting alliances.
“President Museveni is the lynchpin of
stability and security in this region,” says
Oryem. “There is no bigger player in the
region.”
Adonia Ayebare, Uganda’s Permanent
Representative at the UN, told The Indepen-
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
cover story
dent that Uganda is very visible at the UN
and is the guarantor of the South Sudan
peace deal. Ayebare was in buoyant mood
because Uganda had just won the right to
host the South summit; a global platform for
innovation.
He tweeted. “Uganda officially endorsed
by 134 developing countries and China to
host the third South Summit. The largest
gathering of states Uganda has ever hosted.
Congratulations to team Uganda.”
The summit could be seen by some as a
sign of Uganda’s strength on the internation-
al stage under Museveni in spite of events
which may indicate the contrary.
Museveni’s Regional influence
Some critics have pointed out that Musev-
eni’s geopolitical credentials could be wan-
ing due to among other factors; the rise of
Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s fresh-faced Prime
Minister and the uncertain future of the
AMISOM mission in Somalia.
This narrative gained traction when
Ahmed introduced wide ranging reforms
in Ethiopia and brokered peace with Eritrea
after twenty years of hostility. Ahmed who
became Prime Minister last year was accept-
ed as a mediator by protestors and opposi-
tion groups in Sudan on one hand and the
Transitional Military Council on the other.
Museveni’s fallout with erstwhile com-
rade, Rwandan President Paul Kagame,
seems to have further fed the narrative of a
weakened Museveni for someone who once
commandeered the Great Lakes region with
bravado.
Moses Khisa, a political scientist, is in
agreement with this supposition. “His recent
feuding with Kigali exposed his vulnerabil-
ity. It’s instructive that he had to seek medi-
ation from two presidents who have been in
power for a combined less than two years,
that of DR Congo and Angola.”
According to Khisa, clinging onto pow-
er has been Museveni’s greatest undoing,
which has eroded his regional respectability.
In January, columnist Charles Onyango
Obbo said the DRC election held in Decem-
ber 2018 left Uganda as the ‘last Mobutuist
state’ in East Africa. Of the six countries in
the Great Lakes region, Museveni has served
the longest.
However in spite of what critics point out,
time has shown that Museveni still holds
sway in the region. The Sudan Transitional
Military Council led by Gen. Abdel Fattah
Al-Burhan consulted Museveni at Mbale
State Lodge on July 5 over the deadlock
between the council and protestors after
Bashir was deposed.
Other leaders in the region like South
Sudan President Salva Kiir continually seek
his counsel. Kiir is at State House Entebbe
nearly every two months.
13
NEWS ANALYSIS

A health worker spreading disinfectant at a health checkpoint in Goma, DRC.  PATRICIA MARTINEZ/EPA-EFE

Ebola survivors can

pass on the virus
Scientists trying to understand what role sex plays
Four scientists: Professors Andrew L. Webb, Brayden G. Schindell, Jason Kindrachuk, and Jia B. Kangbai
have noted one area in the spread of the Ebola hemorrhagic fever that requires further study. It is the Ebola virus’
persistence in the reproductive systems of otherwise healthy survivors. They say understanding how Ebola dis-
ease outbreaks are exacerbated by sexual transmission is important to stop new chains of transmission and to
prevent the disease from spreading to new geographic regions.

T
he current Ebola disease
outbreak in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo (DRC)
is the second largest in history.
It has been raging for over a year with
no indication that it is nearing an
end. Many of the issues that prevent
effective containment of Ebola disease
outbreaks have been discussed. These
include porous borders, community
mistrust of health workers, and the
spread of misinformation.
But one area that requires further
study is Ebola virus’ persistence in
the reproductive systems of otherwise
healthy survivors. Understanding
how Ebola disease outbreaks are
exacerbated by sexual transmission
is important to stop new chains of
transmission and to prevent the disease
from spreading to new geographic
regions.
Multiple reports strongly suggest
that re-emergence of Ebola disease
is linked to persistent infections and
sexual transmission from survivors.
What this means is that people who
have survived infection by Ebola
virus – and who no longer show
any symptoms of the disease – can

14 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

continue to carry the virus and pass on
the infection months after they have
recovered.
Our research group recently
reviewed the current understanding of
rates and mechanisms of Ebola virus
persistence in male disease survivors.
We are using this information to fill in
gaps about how persistence relates to
sexual transmission of the virus.
In addition, we are combining
molecular investigations with insights
from survivors to better equip future
outbreak response efforts. We also
hope the work will help address long-
term health issues faced by Ebola
disease survivors.
The role of the reproductive
system
Nearly everything known about
Ebola virus persistence in the
reproductive system has resulted from
testing semen of West African Ebola
disease survivors.
It has been established that the Ebola
virus can be detected in semen long
after it is cleared from other organs
and tissues. For example, a recent
study showed that the virus could be
detected in 50% of male survivors 115
days after recovery and may linger for
up to three years.
The virus has also been detected
in semen at concentrations greatly
exceeding that found in the blood
at peak infection. The data suggests
that this occurs in the absence of any
symptoms of disease. In addition,
sexual transmission of Ebola virus
from male survivors has been reported
up to 18 months following their
recovery.
These observations are important
to public health. Firstly, long-term
persistence of Ebola virus could lead to
the initiation of new chains of disease
transmission long after outbreaks have
ended. Secondly, the presence of high
concentrations of virus in the semen
in the absence of disease symptoms
means that male survivors could
carry and transmit the virus without
knowing they’re still infected.
But the fact that only semen is
being used in these studies presents
a problem. This means that the
perseverance of the virus is only being
traced in males. This means that little
is known about persistence of the
virus in women. This urgently needs
attention because Ebola virus has been
detected in female survivors up to 15
months following recovery, and there
are recorded cases of female to male
transmission.
Unanswered questions
There is a strong need for greater
understanding of Ebola virus
infections, including:
  When Ebola virus is transmitted to
reproductive tissues during illness.
How Ebola virus persists over
extended periods in reproductive
tissues.
How long persistent virus remains
infectious.
How often sexual transmission
occurs.
In a bid to answer some of these
questions – particularly the molecular
intricacies of Ebola virus persistence
within the reproductive system – we
used laboratory models of male and
female reproductive systems. This
allowed us to:
Study the dynamics of Ebola virus
transmission to the reproductive
system.
Identify the particular types of cells
that are infected by Ebola virus in the
reproductive system.
Determine how local immune
responses in the infected cells help
facilitate Ebola virus persistence.
Characterise damage to the
reproductive system, including altered
sperm health.
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
NEWS ANALYSIS
We have also performed Ebola virus
infections in mice to better understand
how our molecular data reflects the
complex pathophysiology of Ebola
virus disease and persistence in
humans. Mouse models have been used
in numerous investigations of Ebola
virus infection.
By infecting mice with Ebola
virus, we can determine whether
the male reproductive system is
damaged by persistent infection.
We can also determine if there is
an effect on fertility, and how often
persistent infections result in sexual
transmission. In addition, infections
of female mice help us determine the
severity of disease caused by sexually
transmitted Ebola virus, the effects on
female fertility, and consequences for
gestational development.
In addition to our laboratory
research, we are surveying Ebola
disease survivors in Sierra Leone in
an effort to identify and understand
the long-term health consequences,
with a focus on reproductive health.
Our goal is to determine if survivors
have encountered post-recovery
reproductive complications such as
reduced fertility or problems during
pregnancy.
We are also investigating whether
Ebola disease survivors face greater
burdens of subsequent infections by
other pathogens.
Future outbreaks
The recent success of vaccination
and therapeutic treatments in the
current DRC Ebola disease outbreak
provides hope. But a great deal about
the virus remains unknown. A greater
understanding of the mechanisms of
how persistent infections occur will
help us guide future outbreak response
efforts, with the goal of reducing
additional Ebola virus transmission
events and providing increased care,
support and safety for survivors and
their communities.
Andrew L. Webb is PhD Candidate,
University of Manitoba, Brayden G.
Schindell is PhD Candidate, University of
Manitoba, Jason Kindrachuk is Assistant
Professor/Canada Research Chair in
emerging viruses, University of Manitoba,
and Jia B. Kangbai is PhD candidate,
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
Source; theconversation
15
NEWS ANALYSIS
Kenyan soldiers at a prayer service in 2016 to honour compatriots killed in an attack on their Somali base by Al-Shabaab militants.   EPA/DANIEL
Counting the Somalia
peacekeeping deaths
For the first time, a reliable count on how
many fatalities AMISOM has suffered
By Paul D. Williams definitive figure. The AU continues to leave
N
ew evidence has made possible
a more accurate estimate of how
many African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) personnel
have died since the mission deployed in
March 2007. My previous report in 2015
made clear that neither of the most widely
utilised armed conflict databases—the Up-
psala Conflict Data Program or the Armed
Conflict Event and Location Data (ACLED)
project­—provided plausible numbers, and
that it was unlikely that AMISOM had lost
“up to 3,000” or “perhaps over 4,000” peace-
keepers as some reports suggested.
This new evidence comes from my
research into the mission, newly-released
financial statements from the African Union
(AU) from 2014 to 2018, a new dataset listing
attacks on peacekeepers, and the erection
of a “Memorial Wall of Our Heroes” in the
AU’s Peace and Security building, which
lists names of peacekeepers who died during
AU-led and AU-authorised peace opera-
tions.
The costs of don’t ask, don’t tell
Four years after my initial investigation,
there is still no comprehensive public record
of AMISOM’s fatalities. In my book—Fight-
ing for Peace in Somalia—I estimate that
the number of AMISOM fatalities between
March 2007 and mid-2017 was “probably
more than 1,500,” but due to incomplete
information, it was impossible to provide a
16 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
the decision on whether or not to release
information about casualties to the respec-
tive troop-contributing countries (TCCs).
To date, no AMISOM TCC has publicly
released a comprehensive list of their per-
sonnel killed in Somalia.
I maintain that this is not a good policy
for two main reasons. First, all peacekeepers
who make the ultimate sacrifice should have
their service publicly recognised. Not doing
so is not only immoral, but it is likely to have
a negative effect on morale and could put
their next of kin in a difficult position when
it comes to claiming the financial compensa-
tion they are entitled to. This is presumably
part of the reason why the AU recently erect-
ed the memorial wall
Second, not releasing full details about
peacekeeper deaths in Somalia plays into
al-Shabaab’s hands, who are often able to
dominate the media terrain in the absence
of an authoritative and trusted AU or
AMISOM voice. Optimal strategic commu-
nications for a peace operation like AMISOM
would involve the mission’s representatives
becoming authoritative voices in the Somali
media ecosystem which, in turn, would
require AMISOM to be taken seriously on
this topic. A mission that doesn’t provide the
whole truth about its own dead cannot be
surprised if Somalis think it lacks credibility
when trying to pronounce on other issues.
New Financial Evidence
In March 2017, the AU released financial
statements that contain detailed breakdowns
of how the organisation spent its money
between 2014 and 2017, and in May 2019,
released the report for 2018. The AU is to
be commended for deciding to release this
information, which represents an important
step towards achieving financial transparen-
cy and accountability. These financial reports
also reveal some important details about
AMISOM by providing some information
about the death and disability grants paid by
the AU to the governments of its TCCs.
From information in the AU’s financial
statements on AMISOM’s death and disabil-
ity compensation payments between August
2009 and September 2012, it can be gleaned
that AMISOM suffered 439 fatalities: 22 in
2009, 59 in 2010, 298 in 2011, and 60 in 2012.
The Memorandums of Understanding
(MOUs) signed between the AU and the
TCC governments stated that $50,000
should be paid as death compensation to
the deceased soldier’s government. The
compensation amount for disability would
depend on the degree of injury or disabili-
ties suffered as determined by the joint AU/
TCC medical board. The money for these
payments came from the European Union,
which provided significant financial assis-
tance through its African Peace Facility.
The AU financial records from August
2009 to September 2012 show that death
compensation payments of $50,000 were
made for these 439 fatalities. But there was
also an additional $5,779,000 paid out in
disability compensation, almost always

in payments of $10,000 for each of the
approximately 575 injured soldiers. For the
37 months from August 2009 to September
2012, therefore, the AU spent $27,729,000
on death and disability compensation. Of
this total, 79 percent was spent on death
compensation and 21 percent on disability
compensation.
It is in light of these insights that we
should assess the death and disability
compensation data provided in the newly
released AU financial statements for 2014
through 2018. These public reports reveal
that the AU paid $74,624,000 in death and
disability compensation between 2014 and
2018.
If we assume a similar proportion of
death and disability compensation in these
payments as were evident in those made
between August 2009 and September 2012,
this would mean 79 percent was spent
on death compensation ($58,952,960) and
21 percent on disability compensation
($15,671,040). This would equate to approx-
imately 1,179 payments of $50,000 for
deceased personnel and 1,567 payments of
$10,000 for injured personnel. In contrast,
if we assumed a 50:50 split between fatality
and injury payments, this would sug-
gest 746 fatalities and 3,731 injured
peacekeeper payments.
Given AMISOM’s numerous
remote forward operating bases, the
mission’s limited capacity for rapid
casualty evacuation (partly owing to
a lack of rapid response forces and
appropriate helicopters), and the
relatively poor state of its medical
facilities, a ratio of approximately 3
killed for every 4 wounded peace-
keepers is plausible (the 79:21 ratio).
It is also very close to the actual killed
to wounded ratio that occurred
between August 2009 and September
2012. In contrast, the 50:50 spending
ratio would suggest approximately 1 killed
for every 5 wounded peacekeepers, which
seems rather high and is considerably higher
than the actual ratio that occurred between
August 2009 and September 2012.
Following the money is a plausible but
not foolproof way to estimate the number of
casualties suffered because it is in the interest
of each TCC government to claim the com-
pensation to which it is entitled. Indeed, if
they did not claim financial compensation
for all their dead this would raise some
deeply uncomfortable questions as to why
not. It is also possible, however, that com-
pensation payments were made to the TCC
governments other than via the AU.
But before providing any estimate of
AMISOM’s fatality numbers for the period
2014 to 2018, we must recall that during
2014, AMISOM was not the only AU peace
support operation. The AU also deployed
the African-led International Support Mis-
sion in Central Africa (MISCA). MISCA
deployed to the Central African Republic
in late December 2013 and by the time it
was transitioned into a new United Nations
peacekeeping operation (MINUSCA) in
September 2014, it had suffered a total of 31
fatalities.
If we apply the 79:21 breakdown for 2014,
this would mean a total of 217 fatalities. Sub-
tracting the 31 fatalities suffered by MISCA
leaves an estimated 186 AMISOM fatalities.
Applying the same 79:21 spending ratio to
the years 2015-2018 produces the following
estimate of 1,148 AMISOM fatalities; where-
as assuming a 50:50 spending ratio suggests
an estimate of 747 AMISOM fatalities over
the same period.
The politics of peacekeeper memorials
The erection of the “Memorial Wall of Our
Heroes” in the AU’s headquarters in 2018
was an interesting development. It lists the
names and ranks (but no dates) of peace-
keepers who have died on AU-mandated
peace support operations (such as AMIB,
AMIS, AMISOM, MISCA) and AU-autho-
rised peace operations (such as the MNJTF
and G5 Sahel Joint Force). However, shortly
after its erection, the wall was covered in
black drapes that concealed the names of the
fallen heroes. The drapes were removed the
following year when the memorial wall was
officially inaugurated on May 25, 2019. As of
August 2019, there were 1,108 names listed
on the wall in nineteen columns.
As for AMISOM, it too has a memorial
for its fallen personnel just outside its force
headquarters in Mogadishu. However, it
lists no names or numbers. Rather, its ded-
ication reads: “In memory of the officers,
men and women of the African Union Mis-
sion in Somalia (AMISOM), and the Somali
National Security Forces (SNSF), who lost
their lives in pursuit of peace and stability in
Somalia.”
So What?
What does this new information mean for
an attempt to provide an overall estimate
of AMISOM’s fatalities? In sum, there is
now a reasonably plausible set of estimates
for almost the entire period of AMISOM’s
deployment between March 2007 and
December 2018 derived from five sources.
First, in my book, I cite an internal
AMISOM briefing presentation given to
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
NEWS ANALYSIS
bilateral partners on February 25, 2009
which stated that AMISOM had suffered 12
fatalities and 25 injured peacekeepers as of
December 10, 2008. I assume this is accurate
since it was provided discretely by the AU to
AMISOM’s bilateral partners; the numbers
are low enough that at that stage the issue
was not considered especially controver-
sial; and it reflects the fact that AMISOM
engaged in relatively little fighting during
2007 and 2008.
A second relevant source is the new
Peacemakers at Risk dataset produced out
of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. For
2009, this estimates 40 AMISOM peace-
keepers were killed in violent attacks. My
research suggests that another six AMISOM
peacekeepers died in 2009 (four from illness
and two from motor vehicle accidents), mak-
ing a total of 46.
A third source is the financial records
between August 2009 and September
2012 discussed above, which revealed 439
AMISOM fatalities. Twenty-two of those
occurred between August and December
2009. This leaves 417 between January 2010
and September 2012.
Fourth, the publicly released AU financial
reports provide information about
compensation payments that could
plausibly suggest that AMISOM
suffered approximately 1,148 or 747
fatalities between 2014 and 2018
(depending on whether one assumes
a 79:21 or 50:50 ratio of death and
disability compensation payments).
Fifth, the SIPRI database on mul-
tilateral peace operations—which
collected data on AMISOM’s fatalities
between 2009 and 2014—received a
figure of 261 fatalities from AMISOM
officials for the 2013 calendar year.
Taken together, these sources
cover most of AMISOM’s timeline,
although they leave some peri-
ods unaccounted for, namely, December
11–31, 2008 and October to December 2012.
However, these periods represent only 3.5
months out of the 141 months from March
2007 to December 2018, or 2.5 percent of
AMISOM’s deployment time.
In sum, previous research combined with
the newly released AU financial data and
the Peacemakers at Risk dataset suggest that
a plausible estimate of AMISOM’s fatalities
between March 2007 and December 2018
could be between 1,483 and 1,884 (see Figure
4). Based on the above analysis, it is likely
that the real number is closer to the higher
end of this range than the lower end. Final-
ly, there is a high likelihood that AMISOM
suffered additional fatalities during the 3.5
months currently missing from the data.
Paul D. Williams is Professor in the Elliott School
of International Affairs at the George Washington
University. He tweets @PDWilliamsGWU.
17
news analysis
President Yoweri Museveni and beneficiaries of his generosity poses with a dummy check in Kampala.
He has been accused by the opposition of using billions of shillings to campaign
Candidates to spend
millions in 2021 polls
In 2016 many spent Shs500m -1bn
By Ronald Musoke
M
oney–and a lot of it this
time—will be the choice
campaigning tool for
both incumbents and
challengers in the 2021 presidential and
parliamentary polls, according to a study
by the Alliance for Campaign Finance
Monitoring-Uganda.
The civil society group that tracks
election financing in Uganda shows that
if the past two electoral cycles (2011 and
2016) were characterised by“spending
wars” between political parties and
electoral candidates, 2021 will take it to
another level.
The Alliance for Campaign Finance
Monitoring predicts that because money
will likely be the mainstream electoral
issue in 2021, the combined figure of
campaign expenditure could more than
double that which was spent in 2016.
This is because candidates are
expressing strong willingness to pay for
votes while campaign agents and voters
18 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
are expressing insatiable desire to take in
as much gifts and cash as possible from
candidates.
“The men and women who offer
themselves for elections at different
electoral levels believe that being
elected as political leaders is a
guarantee that ‘things will come’,” the
report says.
The report on the study titled:
“Unregulated Campaign Spending and
its impact on Electoral Participants
in Uganda” was released in Kampala
on Oct. 01. It shows how the cost of
contesting for a political seat has been
rising over the last 20 years since multi-
party democracy was restored in 1996.
Each of the five election cycles has
often left contestants, both winners and
losers, financially bruised.
The Alliance predicts that contestants
for the MP position in 2021 will need
between Shs500 million (US$137,000)
and Shs1billion (US$ 274,000) to spend.
Meanwhile, contestants for district LCV
chairperson seats at local government
level will likely part with between
Shs300 million (US$ 82,000) and Shs500
million (US$ 137,000).
Henry Muguzi, the executive director
of ACFIM and co-author of the report
says Ugandan MPs spend four of their
five years’ term in Parliament trapped
in debt and when they are voted out,
they remain “economically battered,
shattered, tattered and tattooed.”
“The political leader in Uganda enters
political office spending, lives the entire
tenure spending and comes out of office
spending,” he said, “For those who fail
in the election, the situation is even
much worse than you can imagine.”
Muguzi blames the commercialization
of politics.
A related study done by the same
organisation on campaign spending for
the 2016 elections estimated that at least
Shs 2.4 trillion was spent by political
parties and candidates on presidential
and parliamentary election campaigns
countrywide.
The study collected views from 428

former MP candidates, Woman MPs,
LC V Chairpersons and councillors,
mayors, campaign managers, political
parties, and candidates for youth
positions in the districts of Arua,
Hoima, Kamwenge, Mbarara, Iganga
and Mbarara who had participated in
the 2015-2018 electoral cycle.
Respondents were asked to rank
the influence of money on electoral
outcomes on a continuum of 1-8 where
1 is the lowest and 8 is the highest.
The majority of them representing 374
responses (87.9%) gave a rank ranging
5-8 with 117 giving money as the
highest influencer of electoral outcomes
with a rank of 8.
The respondents also argued that
money posed a barrier to people that
have the right skills, knowledge,
attitudes and experience to enter the
electoral arena.
Many youth aged 18-35 years
who were interviewed for this study
revealed that they find it challenging to
participate in politics due to high cost
of contesting with the majority noting
that nomination fees lock them out of
meaningful electoral participation.
Dr. Livingstone Sewanyana, the
executive director of the Foundation for
Human Rights Initiative (FHRI) told The
Independent on Oct.04 that the fact that
Uganda does not have an upper limit on
how much a candidate can spend and
where these candidates get this money
for elections is a big problem.
Sewanyana told The Independent that
although politics is supposed to be a
service to people, it has instead become
a source of employment.
“That is why people are willing to
spend as much as possible including
taking loans,” he said.
Sewanyana told The Independent that
a law on election financing would go
a long way in creating an enabling
environment that would let people with
good ideas vie for political office.
The ruling National Resistance
Movement (NRM) recently proposed
a ceiling on the amount of money a
candidate can spend on an election at
all levels.
Justine Kasule Lumumba, the party’s
Secretary General told the Legal and
Parliamentary Affairs Committee on
Sept. 17 that the NRM wants every
presidential candidate to declare and
file with the Electoral Commission a
copy of their campaign budget at the
time of nomination.
The Legal and Parliamentary Affairs
Committee is currently collecting
views on five electoral reforms Bills
which were recently tabled by William
Byaruhanga, the Attorney General.
The Bills include the Presidential
Elections (Amendment) Bill, the
Parliamentary Elections (Amendment)
Bill, the Electoral Commission
(Amendment) Bill, the Political Parties
and Organization (Amendment) Bill and
the Local Governments (Amendment)
Bill.
Lumumba’s proposals followed her
support for the government proposal
to amend the Presidential Elections Act
to compel candidates to declare their
source of funds for financing campaigns.
Lumumba said the amendment is
necessary to curb interference in the
country’s politics by foreign hostile
states or organisations but hastened
to add that the candidates should also
provide their campaign budgets as well
as declare assets and liabilities to the
Inspectorate of Government.
Cost of campaigns
According to the report, there is a
growing perception within the electorate
that a Member of Parliament, for
instance, must offer them cash and gifts.
Politicians
and political
pundits in
Uganda attribute
the rapidly
increasing costs
of campaigning
in Uganda to high
levels of poverty
among the
electorate
“At times when he/she resists, the
electorate may blackmail the MP by
pretending to be paying more allegiance
to the challenger – so called “MP to be,”
the report reads in part.
“As soon as new political office bearers
are sworn into office for a fresh five
year term, their challengers in the next
election swing into action.”
“They start referring to themselves
as either “MP to be” or “Mayor to be”
or “Councillor to be” depending on the
position they aspire for.”
These so called “to be’s” the report
notes start socializing with the electorate;
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
news analysis
donating generously towards funerals,
weddings or to fundraisings in places of
worship.
In order to undo any gains by the
challenger, the incumbent is forced
to pour in more money. “By the time
the next campaign period comes, the
incumbent will have spent in excess of
Shs 800 million (US$200,000) already,”
says the report.
This, the report says, explains why
despite ranking among the highest
paid public officers in the country, the
economic situation for some MPs is said
to be tough. Some MPs in the current
House have been arrested over failure to
pay loans taken from money lenders.
So what explains the current trend?
Politicians and political pundits in
Uganda attribute the rapidly increasing
costs of campaigning in Uganda to high
levels of poverty among the electorate.
Some say because of poverty, the
voters have stopped responding to
manifesto promises and instead prefer
money. Apparently, because the
electorate is poor; their aim is to solve
their most immediate needs such as cash,
food, sugar, soap, or salt.
Lydia Namayengo, a monitoring
and evaluation officer at the Citizens’
Coalition for Electoral Democracy in
Uganda (CCEDU) told The Independent
that the electorate’s shift from “how
much can you do for us to how much
can you give us” speaks to the fact that
today’s crop of political leaders have also
failed to deliver services to the people.
“That is why instead of people voting
for leaders with experience, good
manifestos, and lobbyists, they vote in
those who have given them something
during campaigns.”
Alice Alaso, the national coordinator
in charge of finance and administration
at the Alliance for National
Transformation says since MPs no longer
represent the views of their constituents;
some of them decide to keep quiet once
they get into Parliament while others
who might be willing are muzzled by a
dysfunctional political system.
“This explains the voter psychology
which demands as little as Shs 1,000
from the political candidates during
election campaigns,” she told The
Independent on Oct. 05, “But it also
explains the psychology of the ruling
NRM party which is the main culprit
when it comes to pouring money into
election campaigns.”
“They know that the majority of
Ugandans are deprived and they know
that Shs 1,000 will make an average
Ugandan voter vote for them,” Alaso
says, “They have successfully reduced
Ugandans to beggars.”
19
news analysis
President Museveni usually dishes out money to youths around Uganda
“State failure has resulted in the
erosion of trust in the corruption-ridden
political leadership, something which
has triggered voter apathy,” says Dr.
Julius Kiiza, “Voters apparently use
the election season to demand for
deliverables here and now.”
In his 2016 paper titled, “Money
Matters: Financing Illiberal Democracy
in Uganda,” Kiiza writes that
depressing social demographics are
a factor. Close to 70% of Uganda’s 40
million people are still rural-based
peasants, millions are youth aged 15-35
years, and many are unemployed.
Although Uganda’s economy
has undoubtedly grown rapidly
with rates of 6.3% since 1992, some
political economists like Kiiza argue
that the rosy socio-economic figures
hardly reflect in ordinary people’s
lives. Kiiza says in large part, the
poverty is a product of state failure to
deliver transformative developmental
outcomes.
The electorate has also learnt that
the decision to improve the quality of
health care, primary education, roads
or agricultural extension services is
outside the control of an elected MP,
LCV Chairperson or councilor. But
the electorate knows that the same
elected leaders have access to economic
opportunities which they tap into;
sometime illegally to enrich themselves.
With this at the back of their minds,
the electorate now demands to be paid
to participate in meetings and seminars
even when they are the consumers and
beneficiaries of the programmes.
Namayengo, the monitoring and
evaluation officer at CCEDU told The
Independent that elections in Uganda
are definitely expensive and this is a
challenge for women and youth aged
20 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
20-35 years.
According to the report, poverty
and desperation make youth agents
of commercialized electoral politics
because they easily engage in “buy-
outs” for as low as Shs 1000 to change
voter disposition and/or participate in
vote rigging.
Going forward, among several
recommendations, the Alliance for
Campaign Finance Monitoring wants
the government to enact a stand-alone
legislation which compels candidates
to disclose publicly their pre-campaign
and campaign spending by or on behalf
of political parties and candidates.
The civil society organisation has
also called for the tightening of the
provision on vote buying to bar political
leaders whose elections are nullified in
courts of law from contesting elections
for five years. Even if the nullification is
as a result of a civil suit.
There is also need to prohibit the
giving of donations by all candidates;
including a president who is also a
candidate, in order to create a level
playing field for all.
ACFIM also wants religious leaders
to banish all forms of fundraisings
from worship centres for a period of
12 months preceding a general election
as well as carry out civic awareness
aimed at discouraging the electorate
from engaging in acts that support the
commercialization of electoral politics.
Cissy Kagaba, the executive director
of the Anti-Corruption Coalition-
Uganda told The Independent on Oct.
04 that a stand-alone law on election
finance would be good in principle but
enforcement would be problematic. She
says the problem starts with President
Yoweri Museveni.
“If the head of state continues to dish
out money, how do you expect a lower
cadre politician not to emulate him?”
Kagaba told The Independent that she
does not foresee the issue of money in
Uganda’s elections disappearing any
time soon.
But Peter Wandera, the executive
director of Transparency International
Uganda says a shift in mindset of the
electorate will go a long way in reversing
what Kagaba thinks is a “path of no
return.”
Perry Aritua, the executive director of
Women’s Democracy Network-Uganda,
told The Independent on Oct. 05 that as
long as the enforcement of the law is
not guaranteed, a stand-alone law on
election campaign financing would be
just like any other law.
“Unless there is commitment to
enforce the law without fear or favour,
this law would be just like the anti-
corruption laws,” she says, “Let
everyone be equal before the law.”
Crispin Kaheru, the coordinator of
CCEDU adds that a stand-alone law
would be good but it is just one of the
elements of a solution that has to be
broader.
“For us to be able to deal with this
problem, let us address the mindset of
the people who vie for these positions,”
Kaheru said.
Kaheru also thinks it is high time
the emoluments of these politicians;
especially the MPs were revised
downwards.
“If their emoluments (fat salaries and
brand new vehicles) were made as less
attractive as possible, then we would
have people who are less of fortune
hunters in political offices.”

Chebet Maikut: Uganda’s
Climate champion dies at 59
By Ronald Musoke
W
hen the 25th UN climate
conference opens in Santiago,
Chile, this December; the
Ugandan delegation will
be missing one usual member –Chebet
Maikut. He died suddenly on Oct. 02—
exactly two months to the next round
of climate change talks scheduled for
Dec.02-13.
As a commissioner in the Ministry of
Water and Environment, he has been
head of the Climate Change Unit which
he is credited for setting up from scratch.
Maikut was tasked with providing
the leadership, management oversight,
and technical support to climate change
action in the country. He also supported
networking and building partnerships by
coordinating, representing the country
and liaising with several people on issues
of climate change in Uganda.
Quiet and unassuming, Maikut has
been Uganda’s leading climate change
negotiator for years. As soon as news
broke of his death, tributes poured in
from both within and outside Uganda.
On both the Water ministry social media
platforms and his Sebei community
Facebook page known as Sebei Nation,
mourners eulogized and praised Maikut
for being a man of “quality, competence
and character.” The UNDP via its
twitter feed eulogized Maikut for his
contribution towards connecting the
global community in climate negotiations.
UNDP called Maikut “a gallant champion
against climate change.”
Global climate change conferences
are renowned for being quite complex
drawn-out negotiations often extending
into the wee hours of the night but
colleagues say Maikut always remained
engaged with global negotiators. He often
led teams from East Africa in pushing for
an agreement that commits developed
countries to support climate change
adaptation in developing countries.
Maikut understood both the science
and politics of climate change. In
May 2017, ahead of the climate change
conference in Bonn, Germany, he told The
New York Times that there was need for a
rule book to rein-in some of the world’s
biggest companies after observing the
role corporate lobbyists play in the UN
climate change negotiations.
“These corporations are so powerful,”
Maikut said, “Uganda’s economy is less
than a tenth of the market capitalization
of fossil fuel giants, Exxon Mobil. We
need a stronger rule book,” he said.
But he also knew well the paradox of
international climate change negotiations
where, for instance, the most vulnerable
rarely get what they deserve. Ahead of
the 2015 Paris climate conference, he
said there was need for the international
community to support mitigation efforts
for climate change for countries like
Uganda that scientists have assessed as
vulnerable.
In most of the international climate
change forums, Maikut described how
a country like Uganda which is not
responsible for climate change, is already
suffering from the impacts of climate
change.
In 2016, for instance, Uganda
experienced its worst dose of climate
change variability; with several parts
of the country taking in very hot
temperatures interspersed with short
erratic rains. This phenomenon affected
agricultural productivity leading to food
shortage, death of livestock, floods and
death of people. Based on these facts,
Maikut has been pushing for increased
funding by the developed countries to
vulnerable countries.
“Uganda has not caused emissions but
when it comes to impacts such as erratic
rainfall patterns, droughts or floods, we
continue to be impacted. Therefore, the
issue of adaptation should be part of the
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
obituary
Paris Agreement,” he said.
Maikut kept reminding other
international negotiators that Uganda
like most developing countries emit
less greenhouse gases yet it is more
vulnerable to the negative impacts
like unreliable rainfall, increase in
temperature and prolonged drought
among others.
“Developing countries feel that
they are being asked to shoulder a
disproportionate share of mitigation
measures,” he said, “At 1.39 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide per capita
annually, Uganda is the lowest emitter
among the least developed countries in
the African group and yet it has been
forced to commit to a 22% reduction by
2030.”
He is credited with preparing
the so-called nationally determined
contributions— an action plan
required for the implementation of the
Paris Agreement for limiting global
temperatures rise below 2°C above pre-
industrial levels to prevent a catastrophic
warming of the planet.
Maikut has been the chairperson of the
Board of the Uganda National Adaptation
Fund, an in-country organ of the United
Nations Adaptation Fund that funds
projects aimed at helping people cope
with the vagaries of climate.
Over the years, Maikut has also held
many distinguished positions of public
service, working as a forestry officer in
the 1980s to Member of Parliament in the
1990s. In 1994, he represented Kween
in eastern Uganda in the Constituent
Assembly—the congress which
formulated the 1995 Constitution and
shortly afterwards served as MP for the
same Constituency (1996-2001).
Maikut also served as the vice president
of the East African Farmers Federation
and President of the Uganda National
Farmers Federation. He was a member of
DuPont’s Biotechnology Advisory Panel
and a Senior Fellow of Synergos, a global
non-profit that brings people together
to solve complex problems of poverty.
Maikut is survived by his widow, Irene
Maikut, a senior retired nurse and six
children. He was laid to rest in his home
district of Kapchorwa in eastern Uganda
on Oct.05.
21
news analysis
Presidential Commissioners: HE Justice Polycarp Nyamuchoncho, HE Justice Saulo Musoke, HE Wacha-Olwol
57 years of Independence
An evaluation of the periods, personalities, episodes
that reflect Uganda’s independence life story
By Prof. Tarsis Bazana Kabwegyere
N
o Ugandan chose to be born a
Ugandan. It is an act of fate.
It is an event in history. A 57-
year old Ugandan who has
lived these years and has matured to
follow what has gone in his/her life-
time should have a story to tell as we
celebrate our in Sironko on October 9 th
2019.
On this growth journey, let us very
briefly indeed give a score to our lead-
ers on selected values. For information
and meditation, Uganda has had the
following leaders (presidents) in these
57 years.
HE Ben Kiwanuka led Uganda
as chief minister in the period of
self-government 1961-1962.
HE Milton Obote 1962-1971 (first
session)
HE Edward Mutesa, king of Bugan-
da and president of Uganda 1963-
1966.
22 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
 HE Gen. Idi Amin, Conquerorof the
British Empire 1971-1979.
 HE Y.K. Lule 1979-1979 (68 days).
 HE Godfrey Binaisa 1979 -1980.
 HE Justice Polycarp Nyamuchon-
cho, HE Justice Saulo Musoke, HE
Wacha-Olwol: The Presidential
Commissioners 1980
 The Military Commission 1980;
overlapping and in control during
the period of the Presidential Com-
mission.
 HE Milton Obote 1980-85
 HE Okello Lutwa 1985-1986
 HE Y.K. Museveni 1986- to date.
Each of these periods, personalities,
and episodes deserve a comprehensive
study to be able to understand Ugan-
da’s independence life story.
Ugandan older than 57 years should
talk loudly their experiences to those
who are still too young to know what
happened and what may happen
because of what happened or did not
happen.
Independence means so many things
to those who were under colonial rule;
self-determination, freedom from colo-
nial domination, peace and develop-
ment, democratic governance; indeed
a long list of dreams. Every generation
has its dreams.
Pick a period of your choice in these
57 years and interest yourself in what
you want and see how each of these
leaders/periods came closest to what
you want/wanted. What contribution
can you make?
HE Ben Kiwanuka deserves some
sympathy. He was let down by the
British and Mengo who could not
stand his idealism. How could he lead
Uganda out of traditions? How could a
Muganda not respect the kabaka? But
he was a lawyer and honest.
HE Milton Obote, a political player
entered the court and played his game
until he outplayed himself. He found

Military Commission: Muwanga (M) Chairman, Museveni (2nd L) Col. Toko, Okello Lutwa (2nd R) and Oyite Ojok
Kabaka Mutesa ready for his bait. How
could a king of Buganda be a president
of Uganda at the same time without
noticing the contradiction; especially
when there were other kings!
Were the kings to rotate? In which
case we may get the beginning of that
Mountain Kingdom of the Rwenzuru-
ru!
They KY-UPC alliance ended in
disaster for both the big players; obote
and sir Edward Mutesa with all the
consquences; producing the Amin era
which needs more painful analysis
than is available in these pages.
HE Ben Kiwanuka HE Milton Obote
HE Y.K. Lule HE Godfrey Binaisa
No democratic election from 1894-
1961/62. No election from 1962 up to
1980. If Independence was about plant-
ing a democratic seed, the seed did
not germinate. The seed seems to have
remained in the soil, waiting for a later
time when constant elections now seem
to be the recurring problem!
Amin was a soldier of few words and
a man of action that injured the phys-
ical and the body-politic. A very, very
big thank you to Mwalimu Julius Nyer-
ere, president of Tanzania, who assist-
ed heroically in the removal of the con-
queror of the Uganda metaphysics.
HE Edward Mutesa HE Gen. Idi Amin
HE Okello Lutwa HE Y.K. Museveni
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
news analysis
The UNLF episode also needs to
be studied and evaluated. It certainly
gave birth to a maturing revolutionary
struggle that brought in the continuity
that has characterised the period 1986
to the present.
The period 1961 -1986, covering the
first 25 years of Uganda’s indepen-
dence should interest all Ugandans
interested in what went wrong in the
founding of Uganda’s independence.
What explains the discontinuities that
characterise this period? What then
explains the continuity that has accom-
panied the 33 years since 1986 to the
present?
If the shortness of a leader’s stay in
power defines heroism, HE Yusuf Lule
would be the greatest hero Uganda
has produced because of his 68 days
in State House. As someone who has
seen and lived the 57 years and those
others like me, we have an obligation
to tell the story. The next 57 years will
be a better Uganda than we have had
as the leaders of tomorrow learn from
our mistakes but also more importantly
benefit from our success. What will
Uganda look like for a Ugandan born
on Oct.09, 2019 when he/she is 57 years
old, fifty seven years hence! What are
we doing today in preparation for A
Uganda of one hundred million per-
sons as projected in 30 year’s time – by
2050!? Happy 57 th Independence
Anniversary.
23
INTERVIEW

`We should have a

mechanism of continuous
conflict resolution’
Atim Ogwal Cecilia Barbara commonly known as Cecilia Ogwal is the District Woman
Representative for Dokolo District and member of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party.
She spoke to The Independent’s Julianne Sabiiti about Uganda’s 57th Independence Anniversary.

What memories do you have of the He was a committed UPC member.

pre-independence era and where Most of the strong Catholics were

I
you were at the time? supporters of the DP. I was very
was in the early years of young but was in position to follow
my secondary education, the politics and try and understand
O’Level. In 1962 I was the debates.
in Senior Two in a rural
secondary school for girls How about the post-independence
and was not privileged era?
to participate in the I went to Nairobi University. I
marching and in participated in the student politics. I
the celebrations in came back to Uganda in 1969. I was
Kampala. There very active in the UPC Youth wing
was the joy that and in central politics even when
everybody also following my career in man-
felt. We had agement. I participated in the Dele-
dismantled gates’ Conference at Lugogo where
governance (Milton) Obote was shot at. I was in
from the co- charge of foreign delegates. I was
lonial powers assigned the delegation from Tanza-
and vested it nia which was led by Julius Nyerere.
in our own I participated until 1971 when Idi
indigenous Amin overturned the government.
leaders. The After the death of Janani Luwum, Idi
slogan was Amin went vicious and many peo-
“Freedom from ple were arrested. That was the time
slavery”. You found we found ourselves fleeing the coun-
pictures of maize on try with my small family and we
the trees to remind peo- settled in Nairobi. I participated in
ple that if you did not coordinating activities for the liber-
vote for Uganda Peoples ation of Uganda with Dar es Salaam
Congress (UPC), then where most of the Ugandans were
you wanted to prolong the and in Uganda, sometimes risking
colonial rule in Uganda. My crossing borders and get things
father was a Roman Catholic done. I also got involved in what
and one would have expect- was called The Discussion Group.
ed us to be with the Demo- We overthrew Idi Amin and Yusuf
cratic Party (DP) but he differ- Lule appointed me Deputy Minis-
entiated religion and politics. ter of Commerce along with Sam
Kuteesa and Robert Ssebunya. But
because of my involvement in the
UPC politics, we felt that participat-
ing in that interim government was
going to hurt our positioning the
party in the main national politics.
I declined the appointment. Politics
has its negative side and being in
the opposition during the National
Resistance Movement (NRM) gov-

24 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

ernment, hurt my business. I think the gov-
ernment felt that with my strong commercial
arm I was not willing to bend to embrace
the NRM ideology. But I think they were
mistaken because even when my business
collapsed I remained focused on what I am
and my principals and what I believe in.
Do you think that Uganda’s independence
had a positive impact on our social and
economic state?
Yes. First was the deliberate development
of the economic arm of the government,
Uganda Development Corporation (UDC)
to strategically develop agro based indus-
tries, to boost agricultural production, to
create employment for our people. UDC
actually became the center where young and
upcoming managers were developed. We
didn’t have human resource well trained
in management, but companies were very
well managed. There was very minimum
corruption. Any element of corruption was
severely punished. The civil service was
very strong and terms and conditions of
employment were very favorable. I worked
in the licensing department under the
Ministry of Commerce, which was chaired
by the Jayant Madhvani (the eldest son of
Muljibhai Madhvani). Many commercial
people wanted favors, to give them import
or export licenses but some of us were not
easy to bend. We favoured Africans who
came up like James Mulwana who was just
an ordinary struggling Ugandan. We gave
these people favorable licensing terms to
encourage them to also come up in business.
And we did succeed. There was a man called
Opoka from Acholi who also did extremely
well.
Did the political instabilities at the time
hinder the work you were doing? Gen-
erally, across the country, were people
struggling economically because of the
insecurities?
During the post-independence era we did
well as a colony. The Ugandan economy was
well managed. Actually I think Uganda was
ahead in the East African region. Uganda
was ahead of Kenya and Tanzania. I was
getting a good salary, had a small family,
two children, very little expense. I was not
buying flashy clothes and shoes, I invested.
It was really the Idi Amin era that brought
Uganda down to its knees. By the time I
went into exile my house was already built.
By the time we came back everything was
gone and we had to start from square one.
But that’s life.
How about socially? Before Idi Amin’s era,
were the tribal lines drawn?
In the post independent era, tribalism
was not prominent. You would find a
good majority of Acholi in police and army
because of their preference. In civil service,
there was no tribal ethnic divide that we see
these days. It was more of a time of sharing
the national cake fairly. We had the Binaisas
who were quite high in Obote’s government
and we had Grace Ibingira who was part
of the ministerial team of Obote. Even in
the second era of Obote, the key ministers
who were close to Obote were not Langi;
they were people like Chris Rwakasisi, a
Munyankore, people like Luwuriza Kirun-
da, he was a Musoga, the Kyabazinga of
Busoga was very close to Obote, quite a
number of people from Buganda, from Bugi-
su, from Kabale. That was a government
that gave us a real picture of nationalism; a
national character. Then we even remodeled
it into the political character of the country.
So if the election of 1971 had been held, they
had adopted a system where one MP had
to have three constituencies. You would
have your indigenous constituency and two
constituencies outside your region. So that
when I stand in Parliament, I talk for Ugan-
da. Even the school system was structured
on national character so that if you pass
Primary examination well, you would go
to Ntare, so you would find a Karimojong
going to Ntare, a Lango going to Ntare, there
you’re going to mix with the Banyankore,
the Baganda. So many people mixed up in
Budo. General Aronda for example, we used
to call him an Acholi, in Kitgum High. So it
gave us a national character. So when you’d
go and drink with these Banyankore in their
rural areas, you lose this character of being a
Langi, of thinking only the Langis should be
close to you. You completely build a national
character. That is something which we have
missed. Obote even lived by example by
marrying a Muganda. The country had set a
strong foundation for nationalism.
In your opinion, is Uganda completely free
of neocolonialism?
What is your opinion on neo colonialism
because we’ve always disagreed with many
people when discussing neocolonialism?
Africa took time and I think the traces are
still there, to wean off the colonial mentali-
ty. One, we were tied up together through
trade. We were growing cotton because that
was the only cash crop that we the Langi
were taught to grow. We did not have the
capacity to think outside the box. The Bagan-
da were taught that coffee is their traditional
crop. Without coffee, a Muganda is helpless.
We continued to buy things from UK in
order to look expensive and presentable,
up to today. What hurts me is the wedding
apparel, the way we present our brides and
bridegrooms. What is this long dress white
veil culture? How is it related to our culture?
I only disagree with people when they talk
about neo colonialism in terms of ideology. I
don’t go there because I see it every day.
So do you think that in order for us to
deal with neo colonialism, we need to
completely return to our African way of
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
INTERVIEW
doing things?
We need a dramatic paradigm change
so that we can go back to the roots. I’m not
saying we walk naked. But I’m saying we
have our African print. Tanzania by the
way almost changed their environment and
Julius Nyerere made sure he lived by exam-
ple. He decided to deliberately promote that
white shirt official or casual occasions. So
no one had to put on a suit in the heat, then
a tie and a jacket to look formal. It shows
how much damage colonial rule did to our
mindsets. People even scorn individuals
who speak corrupted English. I don’t want
people who speak corrupted English to apol-
ogise. It’s not my language, why should I
speak perfectly? Tanzania, even in their par-
liament, adopted bilingual communication
where one can use either Swahili or English.
I would long for the day where Ugandans
adopt the same thing. What we need to do
as African is try and specialise and create a
strong market for ourselves and attract the
international community to come and buy
from us based on our competencies and
abilities.
The theme for this year’s Independence
Day celebration is, “Consolidation of
national unity, security, freedom and pros-
perity. What are your thoughts on this? Do
you think we’ve achieved these as a nation?
I’ve just shared with you what the post
independent era put in place regarding
national unity. Let’s look at the education
system, let’s look at the investment and let’s
look at our leadership. Are we creating unity
or are we creating division? We know the
president comes from the west and you find
that the west takes 30% of the national cake
and leaves 70% for all the other regions. That
does not create nationalism. When speaking
in parliament, speak for everybody equally,
do not use tribal sentiments. The chopping
up of districts is disintegrating us even
further. It is very dangerous for national
building. What factors do we have that can
deliberately promote reconciliation? We still
have a general like Tumwine who says for us
we fought so we don’t have to ask for your
support. Every year on the 26th, the NRM
are spending billions of Ugandan tax payers’
money to celebrate liberation day. What
are you liberating? When the Musevenis
were in the bush in Luwero, people were
being shot in buses on the streets. After that
they started collecting skulls and putting
them on the roadside and saying these are
Obote’s skulls. How do you know where
Obote kept his skulls? You’re actually
scratching the scar where the wound had
healed. We should have had a mechanism
of continuous conflict resolution. We don’t
have mechanisms in place to reconcile a
society, a community, a nation, to look at
things in a balanced way. Until we have
those mechanisms in place, it’s just an empty
talk, noise, about national unity.
25
Across Africa, tech-enabled micro-
insurance is the next big thing The Mobile Economy Sub-Saharan Africa 2019

But policymakers across1.1

the region need to implement
policies and practices Sub-Saharan
that stimulate growth
Africa will have
subscribers by 2025
over 600 million unique

T
By Isaac Khisa Figure 1 Source: GSMA Intelligence

Half the population in Sub-Saharan Africa will subscribe to mobile services

he Sub-Saharan African re- by 2025
50%
gion is set to be the hotbed for
44%
mobile phone services as the
young population owns more 32%
623
devices in the next six years.
Latest data from Global Sys- 456
tem for Mobile Communications (GSMA),
a non-profit organisation that represents
the interests of more than 750 mobile
287
operators across the world, shows that
the number of unique mobile subscribers
in the Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

surge from 456 million in 2018 to 600 mil-

lion customers by 2025. Unique subscribers Penetration
And with the young population expect- (million) (% population)

ed to be the majority of the new mobile Source: Global System for Mobile Communications
subscribers, there is a general consensus
that this will significantly influence mobile 1.2
usage patterns in the near future. Where will thethe
Notwithstanding next
fact167
that million
mobile subscribers
and creditcome from?
cooperative societies (Saccos)
The development is also expected to technologies are at the heart of Sub-Sa- for easy distribution of micro-insurance
push the contribution of mobile phone haran Africa’s digital journey, it is also products, according to the Institute’s head
Figure 2 Source: GSMA Intelligence

technologies and services to the region’s essential

Nearly for 170policymakers in the region
million new subscribers by 2025;of training
half andmarkets
from five research, Jonan Kisakye.
Gross Domestic Product from 8.6% or to Subscribers
implement policies and best practices
(million) “We believe developing this mobile
$144bn in 2018 to 9.1% or $185bn in 2023. that enable sustainable growth for the platform will facilitate distribution of
Experts say that this development is micro-insurance product segment. insurance services 84 to target low 167 income
good news to two sectors of telecom and Currently, many institutions in the earners,” Kisakye told The Independent in
insurance. region seem to be already positioning an interview.
This is because it provides immense themselves to expand their insurance aBi Trust was set up in 2010 by the
opportunities for the region’s insurance services through the provision of tech-en-10 governments 9 of Uganda and Denmark
industry to ride on the surging num- abled micro-insurance services15such as to support agribusiness initiatives, with
ber of mobile phone usage to expand personal life, funeral 18 covers, pension a focus on the private sector, to increase
their services to the vulnerable people
31
plans, credit life, saving plans, health or their contribution to the agricultural sector
in the communities – the so-called “bot- medical bills, crop destruction, agricultural by increasing productivity and competi-
tom-of-the-pyramid” hooked to the tele- inputs,Nigeria
burglary and propertyDRC
Ethiopia destruction,
Tanzania tiveness,
Kenyaleading to poverty Total
Others reduction
new and
com services. to the low income market segment. economic growth. subscribers
by 2025
This, the experts, means insurance For instance, in Uganda, the Insurance The Institute has also organised a two-
firms need to come up with tech-enabled Institute of Uganda (IIU) has partnered day international insurance conference to
micro-insurance products where consum- with the International Labour Organisa- be held at Speke Resort, Munyonyo, start-
ers can enrol and register for insurance tion (ILO) and Financial Sector Deepening ing Oct.17, to discuss the
The mobile opportunities
market in numbers 7
services using simple mobile phones; send Uganda (FSDU) to train local insurers so that lie ahead in the insurance industry,
claims documentation using WhatsApp that they can unveil micro-insurance ser- particularly in the micro-insurance busi-
and receive pay-outs via mobile money vices. ness segment.
services. It also calls for insurance firms The Institute has also partnered with the Mariam Nalunkuuma, the senior
to seek partnerships with telecom firms to aBi Trust to design a digital platform that communication officer at the Insurance
reach a wide clientele with ease at a low will link up insurance firms and the finan- Regulatory Authority of Uganda told The
cost. cial service providers including savings Independent that the regulator, just like the

26 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

other industry regulators in the region, is
putting in effort to ensure that the local
insurance industry does not miss out on
the on-going digital transformation.
“Given that the number of people using
mobile transactions is increasing, it means
that the insurance industry can’t do much,
“she said, “It has to use any available chan-
nel including the digital platforms to ensure
that there’s inclusive insurance.”
Nalunkuuma said mobile platforms will
enable insurance firms to create a larger
customer base, through data analytical tools the low income earners with micro-insur-
and social media marketing campaigns. She ance products.
said the tech-enabled micro-insurance will
also help extend insurance services directly
to the consumers at low costs due to elim-
ination of intermediaries and thus boost
penetration.
Currently, Insurance penetration in Afri-
ca stands at an average of 3% according to
PWC. In Uganda it is still at less than 1%
amidst the fastest growth insurance premi-
ums. At this level, Uganda’s insurance pen-
etration is lower in the East African region.
Kenya’s insurance penetration stands at
2.85%, Tanzania’s 2.3% and Rwanda’s 1%.
Nalunkuuma says the IRA has also sub-
mitted Mobile Network Operators
guidelines to the finance and infor-
mation communication ministries to
protect the interest of policy holders
who would buy any tech-enabled
micro-insurance products.
“Of course, these regulations are
not a deterrent for an insurer to be
innovative, we simply want them to
work better,” she added.
The neighbouring Kenya is also
coming up with regulations to guide
the rollout of tech-enabled micro-in-
surance products. Mariam Nalunkuuma
Evidence shows tech-enabled
micro-insurance works
This development comes at the time
there is a growing number of insurance
firms already tapping or planning to tap
into markets in developing countries
through micro-insurance projects, which
provide low-cost insurance to individuals
generally not covered by traditional insur-
ance or government programs.
This is because micro-insurance products
tend to be much less costly than traditional
products and thus extend protection to
a much wider market, according to the
US-based Insurance Information Institute.
The Institute adds that the products tend
to vary in type and structure but are gen-
erally distinguished by high volumes, low
cost and efficient administration.
For instance, the Metropolitan Insurance
in Uganda, which started its operation in
2017 in partnership with a tech-insurance
broker, Ayo, has since attracted more than
a million customers. The majority of the
firm’s subscribes are hooked onto the South
African telecom firm, MTN, who pay a
small fee of their airtime as premiums every
time they load on their mobile phones or
send cash via MTN Mobile Money. The
insurance firm had at the end of last year
recorded Shs10bn in underwritten premi-
ums.
Similarly, the Grand Micro Insurance,
which was licensed in 2018 recorded Shs-
24million in total premiums at the end of
the year, signalling the potential to tap into
Grand Micro Insurance offers life, medi-
cal, funeral and saving products for as low
as Shs15, 000 annually, with the option to
pay via mobile phones or through commer-
cial banks. The insurance policies last for
two to five years.
In Kenya, Micro Ensure, which was
founded in 2005 in the United Kingdom as
a global nonprofit microfinance network,
has more than 3.5million low income cus-
tomers across eight countries including
Kenya, Tanzania, Ghana, Mozambique and
Malawi.
Micro Ensure employs the services of
Jonan Kisakye
M-Pesa, a mobile money digital wallet, and
Frontline SMS – an open source software
program that specializes in mobile financial
services, to make micro insurance accessible
and affordable to the poorer communities.
The business model entails M-Pesa col-
lecting premium payments (policyholders
pay premiums via the app) and Frontline
SMS: Credit monitoring individual policies
in real time.
Recently, Jubilee holdings, which also
has a presence in Uganda and Tanzania,
unveiled a micro-insurance product target-
ing low-income earners in partnership with
Bluewave Microfinance.
The product dubbed Imarisha Jamii is
accessed via the mobile phone providing
life, personal accident and disability insur-
ance as well as medical insurance to the
low-income earners.
With premiums as low as Kshs20 per
week (approximately Shs740) policyhold-
ers have access to hospital cash, funeral
benefits and disability cover of up to
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
business
Kshs100, 000 (Shs3.7million) and also get
cover of up to Kshs10, 000 (Shs370,000)
hospital cash when admitted for three
nights or more.
Jubilee Holdings CEO, Julius Kipng’etich,
says with affordable premiums and ease of
access using the mobile phone, the insurer
is not only disrupting the traditional model
of providing insurance services but also
revolutionizing the way insurance business
is conducted, by developing more products
that are responding to customer’s needs.
Imarisha Jamii also has a Group, Family
and Chama option that allows those in
groups and with families to get cover for
their dependants.
“Most low income earners earn their
wages daily and when they are too sick
to work, their families are often unable to
meet their daily needs. Imarisha Jamii has
been designed to mitigate against that as it
provides hospital cash – for those who have
been hospitalized for three nights or more
and cover for death and disability,” says
Nicholas Mruttu, the head of retail at Jubi-
lee Holdings. The product has no exclu-
sions and covers everyone from ages 18-75.
Imarisha Jamii can be accessed by dialing
*643# on a mobile phone and follow-
ing the prompts to sign up, make
payments, access policy details and
make claims.
In 2014, Britam Kenya unveiled a
microfinance product with Safaricom
targeting the underserved low end of
the market.
The product dubbed Linda Jamii,
had micro-health cover with an entry
price of Kshs12, 000 per year (Shs420,
000) offering holders for in and out
patient, maternity, dental, optical, a
hospitalisation and income replace-
ment benefit services worth Kshs250,
000 (Shs8.7milion). However, a year
later, the underwriter stopped offering the
cover to individual customers.
Statistics from the Kenya Medical Associ-
ation shows that less than a quarter of more
than 45million Kenyans have some form of
health cover.
Ten more insurance companies have
also applied for permits to start offering
micro-insurance policies, according to
Godfrey Kiptum, the acting Chief Execu-
tive Officer at Kenya’s Insurance Regulato-
ry Authority.
However, Kiptum said the ten undis-
closed firms are yet to be cleared, and were
awaiting approval of the Micro-insurance
Regulations 2018 by the National Assem-
bly.
The regulations provide for provision of
policies to individuals or property such as
homes, livestock and crops at daily premi-
ums not exceeding Ksh40 (Shs1, 400) with
the insured sum capped at Kshs500, 000
(Shs17.4million).
Meanwhile, in Tanzania, Jamii, a local
27
business
start-up, offers micro-health insurance services
with plans to expand into East and Central Africa.
Launched in January 2015, Jamii is a mobile pol-
Bill Gates Foundation
icy-management platform that performs adminis-
trative activities of an insurer, while also providing
access to low-cost insurance policies ordered on
mobile phones using “quick codes” (formally
talks digital finance
known as unstructured supplementary service
data (USSD, codes). Sector players must listen,
The partnerships with Jubilee Insurance and
Vodacom Tanzania have enabled Jamii to imple-
ment a cashless premiums-collection system at
offer what clients want
more than 400 hospitals.
This has helped it reduce insurance adminis- By Julius Businge It cites only 7% of rural Ugandans

P
tration costs by up to 95 per cent and allowed it to
offer micro-insurance policies for as low as $1 per eople do not need a stock
month (3,700). Since it set up the platform a little exchange account but instead
over four years ago, more than 8,000 Tanzanians need an account to save their
have signed up. money safely and be able to
Tanzania’s fast growth in micro-insurance ser- make small transactions.
vices has been facilitated by the introduction of This is what stood out from a
“Micro-insurance Regulations and Guidelines” in speech delivered by Warren Carew,
2014. representing Bill and Melinda Gates
The regulations – which focus on fairness, con- Foundation at the recently held Digital
sumer protection, innovation, participation and Impact Awards in Kampala. The Awards
transparency – describe micro-insurance as an focused on deepening financial inclusion
ideal channel for low-income Tanzanians to access in Uganda.
insurance coverage. Carew was
Tech-enabled micro-insurance services have also a contributor
taken root in South Africa and Nigeria with more to the success
countries expected to venture into the same market of Kenya’s
segment. mobile money
A 2017 Annual Report by the Micro-insurance platform,
Network, a non- profit global organization of M-PESA. He
micro-insurance industry experts comprised 80 previously
institutional members from more than 40 coun- worked at
tries, shows that while emerging markets account Vodafone. He
for around one-fifth of total global premium, they also worked
represent 80 per cent of the world population, for the Mobile
pointing toward an enormous potential for growth. Money
The Network’s World Map of Micro-insur- Americas
ance states that over 280 million people worldwide Corporation
are covered by at least one micro-insurance policy as the Chief
with premiums totalling $2.4 billion. Technical
The Network says mobile network operators Officer.
are providing coverage to 40 million people He said
in Asia, where nine times out of ten, mobile that financial Warren Carew
micro-insurance is a person’s first experience with sector players
insurance. must listen to
what the people want and deliver it fast,
How to successfully grow micro-insurance efficiently, on time and in a reliable way.
business segment “To achieve digital and financial
inclusion, we must work together,” he
In Africa, the micro-insurance market is still at said.
its infancy, according to the KPMG 2017 survey, His comments connect with a 2018
pointing out that the use of mobile phones could report released by Financial Sector
help deliver micro-insurance products to the rural Deepening Uganda (FSDU) that exposed
areas. gaps in financial services access and
Similarly, a study carried out by the Associa- usage.
tion of Kenya Insurers in 2015 shows that there is The FSDU report says the biggest
also need to strengthen the industry’s perception challenge for financial service providers
through full disclosure, transparency and honesty lies in accessing its largely rural
when paying claims to the clients. population where 76% of adults live in
“There is need for the government (s) to put in rural areas. The report also notes that
place deliberate measures that will promote the there is high cost for banks to deliver
development of micro insurance products and their services to the rural areas and that
deepen its penetration as well…this worked in there is no incentive for them to do so.
India ,” the study says in part.
as being ‘banked’, compared to 24% of
those residing in urban areas. “To bring
about growth in the banking sector,
Uganda will have to find innovative
ways of reaching potential consumers in
the countryside. Agent banking which
was introduced recently in Uganda, and
mobile banking are examples of such
innovations,” the report reads in part.
Indeed Carew said financial service
providers must think of innovations all
the time to bring onboard those outside
the finance system.
“It [financial
Inclusion] starts with
access to everyone at
every level,” he said,
“We need to be able to
use financial systems to
do anything.”
Maggie Kigozi, a
director at Crown
Beverages Uganda
Limited and former
Uganda Investment
Authority Executive
Director, said as the
private sector thinks
of innovative ways of
financially including
everyone, sector
regulators like Bank of
Uganda must take lead.
“The world is fast
transforming and
the regulators must adapt,” she said,
“Regulators need to be informed and
made to understand the latest trends
plus issues affecting trade and fin-tech.”
Kigozi applauded the organisers of
the awards (HiPipo, Gates Foundation,
ModusBox and CrossLake Tech), saying
it is through such events that sector
players can share resources to deal with
financial inclusion challenges.
Meanwhile, some of the award
winners included MTN Uganda because
of its saving and lending product –
MoKash. Stanbic won the digital brand
of the year and Airtel won the Best
Digital Customer Experience award.

28 Oct. 11 - 17 2019

Sudhir’s new Shs36bn property
Real estate experts react on the
Electrical Plaza near Nakasero Market
By Julius Businge
P
lot 11, Market Street and Kiyembe
Lane in Kampala Central District
have changed their physical face fol-
lowing the official opening of a new
commercial building – Electrical Plaza.
It joins a list of several commercial and
residential property owned by Ruparelia
Group of Companies in Kampala City.
The building is said to have cost approxi-
mately $10million (Shs36.6billion), according
to the Group Chairman, Sudhir Ruparelia.
The property, which opened for business
last month, is currently one of the tallest
buildings on the Market Street in Nakasero,
downtown Kampala, according to experts in
this field.
Designed as a mixed development prop-
erty, offering both residential and commer-
cial space to tenants, the building has 220
shops, 56 apartments and two floors for car
parking.
Sudhir said the design was selected based
on the fact that it is increasingly becoming
difficult to own land in Kampala’s Central
Business District (CBD) yet there is need for
more residential and commercial properties.
“We have many middle class Ugandans
who are working in the city but reside very
far from it…we have put apartments on this
property to save you daily transport and the
associated inconveniences,” he said, adding
that the apartments cost Shs1-2million per
month.
“We (hope) to ring back life to the city,”
he said, “People had run away from the cen-
tre but we believe there should be life back in
the city… you do business but also stay here
and this is what we want to achieve in the
long run ”
While this is not the first property to have
mixed commercial offers in the city, real
estate experts agree with Sudhir that heavy
traffic jam amidst tight schedules for office
workers require more of these properties to
be established in Kampala and the neighbor-
ing areas.
John Musiime from UAP Properties
Uganda Limited told The Independent on
Oct.05 that mixed properties in the city will
make it convenient for those that do not
want to stay far away from the CBD.
But he added that as the city expands out-
wards, developers of the Sudhir type have to
shift their investments to those areas where
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
business
most people are going to establish offices for
different services.
Musiime added that the CBD has limited
land to accommodate more of these prop-
erties compared to the city’s surrounding
areas that are currently offering more space
for residential, commercial and recreational
facilities.
This development comes a few months
after Ruparelia Group of Companies opened
officially Kingdom Kampala Mall that sits
on a 14-acre piece of land located on Nile
Avenue, Yusuf Lule Road and Dewinton
Road. The group also recently opened Speke
Apartments that continues to attract high
end clients.
It also comes amidst Knight Frank’s
– a property agency firm – latest report
indicating that rent for office space in
prime locations in Kampala city has
remained stable at $14.5 (Approx.Shs53,
000) per square metre for most months of
2019.
This was attributed to the increasing
number of tenants seeking rental
properties out of the CBD citing
congestion and high rental costs.
29
business
Balance infrastructure,
human capital investments
By Patricia Akankwatsa & Julius Businge
M
assive infrastructure develop-
ment alone without well trained
and skilled personnel will not
help the country achieve desired
economic growth targets.
This was the message directed to the
government during the recently conclud-
ed infrastructure conference in Kampala
titled ‘infrastructure and human capital
investment for growth and development in
Uganda.’
The conference was organized by the Afri-
can Development Bank in partnership with
the International Monetary Fund and the
Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic
Development at the Kampala Serena Hotel
on Oct.04.
Edward Buffie, an executive at the AfDB
said though the government is spending
heavily on key infrastructural projects, it
should equally invest in human capital.
“Investment in human capital generates
larger development gains in the long run
but infrastructure scores better at the 15 year
horizon,” he said. Other areas that need to
be addressed include; sufficient capacity to
implement projects, proper funding of main-
tenance and the need for reforms to increase
investment efficiency.
Buffie said in the event that the govern-
ment is sure that the returns to education is
correct, then, investment in upper education
is more effective than investment in infra-
structure. This comes as Uganda’s current
National Development Plan (NDP II) identi-
fies infrastructure and human capital devel-
opment as fundamental for the realization of
its objectives.
At regional level, Uganda’s focus on infra-
structure development is in tandem with
that of the partner states in the East African
Community, which all aim to boost their
30 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
trade competitiveness.
The government is currently investing in
various infrastructure projects including;
Karuma and Isimba hydropower plants and
the Entebbe International Airport.
Clara Mira, the International Monetary
Fund Resident Representative, Uganda, said
it is important for the government to strike
a balance in investing in infrastructure and
human capital.
“Uganda could effectively expand capa-
bilities of its people particularly children by
addressing social wellbeing through relevant
sectors in order to transform the country
from a peasant to a modern and prosperous
country as anticipated in Vision 2040,” she
said.
Kasekende agrees with other speakers
Meanwhile, the Deputy Governor at the
Bank of Uganda, Louis Kasekende, said pub-
lic investments provide a near-term boost to
economic growth and there is an enormous
amount of economic evidence demonstrat-
ing that public investment is a significant
long-run driver of productivity growth.
He concurred with the previous speakers
that for infrastructure to result in economic
transformation, it has to be combined with a
skilled labour force.
“Public investment in infrastructure at
the cost of human capital development will
not support Uganda’s economic transforma-
tion,” Kasekende said, adding that Uganda’s
prosperity in the years ahead will largely
depend on its skilled human capital which
is useful for innovation and supporting eco-
nomic growth.
However, Kasekende said expanding
public investment in human capital and
skills raises the issue of sources of funding
such as taxes or changes in the composition
of public spending.
“This therefore points to the need for the
right mix of public infrastructure investment
and social spending,” he said.
He added that even if public investments
spur long term growth, Uganda faces chal-
lenges of public investment management
and financing these investments.
However, he said that concessional financ-
ing has substantially declined but access to
international financial markets has eased.
He, therefore, said the opportunity to
borrow at concessional rates to meet infra-
structure needs has become very tempting,
especially in anticipation of oil revenues,
which serve as collateral for borrowing from
international markets.
He said that public investments financed
by public borrowing against future oil reve-
nue is a precursor for a resource curse.
Moreover, he added that Uganda has a
low public investment efficiency. He warned
that if public investment is scaled up quickly,
absorption capacity constraints could drive
public investment costs further.
Uganda’s public debt has risen sharply
since 2009/2010with nominal debt to GDP
ratio increasing from 19.2% in FY2009/2010
to 42.2% in FY2018/19.
Given the current commitments on infra-
structure projects by government, debt is
projected to increase further to around 45.7%
of GDP in FY2019/20.
Kasekende said, there are risks to the rap-
idly rising public debt, especially the exter-
nal debt that has risen on an annual basis at
an average of about 18% in the four financial
years to 2018/19.
“…it is important for Uganda to strike a
balance between the need for public invest-
ments and managing public finances,” Kase-
kende said.
Julius Mukunda, the executive director at
the Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group
(CSBAG) said completion of government
projects on time should also be a priority.

BANKING
Centenary Bank
registers 3,500 agents
I
n an effort to drive financial inclusion,
Centenary Bank, one of the country’s
leading commercial banks, has registered
tremendous strides in extending finan-
cial services to the unbanked communities
through authorised Agents.
This follows the enactment of the Finan-
cial Institutions Act 2017 that saw the Bank
of Uganda spearheaded financial inclusion
of the unbanked population as part of its top
agenda.
Centenary Bank, which rolled out Agent
Banking services in 2018 had at the end of
the year registered over 2,400 agents, with
majority of them located upcountry.
Currently, the bank has over 3,500 active
agents providing its customers with conve-
nient access to services at a relative low cost.
This translates into a reach of approximately
two hundred and fifty thousand (250,000)
people. So far, six out of the country’s 24
commercial banks have unveiled Agent
Banking services.
BANKING
Business conditions continue to strengthen
T
he Stanbic Purchase Managers Index
(PMI) for September shows that
private sector activity remained in
growth territory at the end of the
third quarter of the year.
The survey, sponsored by Stanbic Bank
and produced by IHS Markit, indicates that
ability of firms to secure additional cus-
tomers resulted in higher new orders and a
subsequent expansion of business activity.
Meanwhile, both input costs and output
prices continued to increase. The headline
PMI was 55.7 in September, down from 57.5
in August, but still above the 50.0 no-change
mark.
Stanbic Bank Fixed Income manager Ben-
oni Okwenje said the private sector activity
remains solid at the end of the third quarter
of 2019. “Despite the PMI declining to 55.7
in September from 57.5 in August, overall
TELECOM
Airtel Africa partners with Mastercard to Transform Digital Payments
O
n Oct.08, Airtel Africa announced
a partnership with Mastercard,
giving over 100 million Airtel
Africa mobile phone users across
14 African countries access to Mastercard’s
global network.
The Mastercard virtual (non-plastic) card
allows Airtel Money customers, even those
without a bank account, to make payments
REAL ESTATE
MS Broll Uganda is new Crested Towers’ manager
N
ational Housing and Construction
Corporation has appointed MS
Broll Uganda as its property man-
agement firm for Crested Towers
Building, replacing Knight Frank that has
managed the property for the last 16 years.
The iconic structure, with twin towers
located in central Kampala, has more than
14,000 square metres of rentable space for
both modern offices and modern shops.
NHCC CEO, Kenneth Kaijuka, said the
activity remains robust. Domestic demand
continues to improve, partially driven by
private sector credit growth over the last
year,” he said.
“Despite higher input costs, the rise in
new orders has supported overall output. It
has now been 32 months in a row of improv-
ing business conditions and we suspect this
trend will carry through for the rest of the
year.” The report shows that new orders
increased in September, with a number of
panellists indicating that they had been able
to secure new customers during the month.
The survey, which has been conducted
since June 2016 and covers the agriculture,
industry, construction, wholesale & retail
and service sectors, contains the latest anal-
ysis of data collected from the monthly sur-
vey of business conditions in the Ugandan
private sector.
to local and global online merchants that
accept Mastercard cards, while ensuring
that the customer’s financial data is always
secure and private.
In addition, Airtel Money customers will
also be able to make in-person payments at
outlets via Quick Response (QR) codes. To
date, there are over 1 million merchant loca-
tions across Africa that accept Mastercard
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
business
contract award to MS Broll Uganda followed
a robust open bidding and screening process
where Broll emerged the winner. The firm
will now manage the property for the initial
three years effective this month.
“Part of the decision in selecting MS Broll
Group was their more than 44 years of excel-
lence in providing property management
services across Africa,” Kaijuka said.
“We look forward to their value addition
in ensuring Crested Towers remains the
class A office buildings of choice with a high
level of efficiency in service provision that
drives customer satisfaction.”
Moses Lutalo, the Manager at Broll
Uganda said they are excited about the new
offering.
Established in 1975, Broll Property Group
has offices in major cities and towns in South
Africa as well as operations in Cameroon,
Ghana, Indian Ocean Islands, Ivory Coast,
Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria,
Swaziland, and Zambia.
TOURISM
Uganda sets dates for annual
tourism expo ‘POATE2020
U
ganda’s Tourism Board has
announced the dates for the Pearl
of Africa Tourism Expo 2020, due
to run on Feb.04- 06 next year.
Uganda used the very well attended
Magical Kenya Tourism Expo as their
launchpad, knowing well that the large
number of hosted buyers and international
tourism trade media, besides Kenyan and
regional exhibitors, can be reached at one
go.
Flyers were handed out and Uganda also
sponsored the events in the media centre
which was flagged in Ugandan colours.
Uganda also has a large stand to exhibit at
MKTE2019 with representatives of more
than a dozen companies.
QR payments.
Airtel Money customers will also benefit
from competitive pricing and preferential
exchange rates for international payments,
and gain access to other domestically rele-
vant use cases including bill payments, mer-
chants payments and value added services
such as cash management solutions.
31
business

Jubilee insurance
unveils Mum’s Club

R
egional insurer, Jubilee
Insurance, has unveiled
the Jubilee Mum’s
Club, a designated
free space where all mothers;
aspiring, new and active share
their maternal moments at all
extremes of the motherhood
journey, from the hurdles to the
treasures.
This new service is in partner-
ship with Surgipharm Uganda
Ltd, Indulge Maternity Spa and
Gym, Lato Milk, Mukwano
Airtel Uganda MD, VG Somasekhar, recounts the company’s growth Industries Uganda, Madrasa
journey a head of Uganda’s 57th independence celebrations. He said the
company has rolled out 4G connection countrywide and will continue to Early Childhood Development
support the national team, the Uganda Cranes.   COURTESY PHOTO. and the Mickey kids collection.
Under the theme “Embracing
the Beauty that is Motherhood”,
the Jubilee Mum’s Club opens
up the floor for mothers to
engage with doctors, midwives,
gynecologists, pediatricians,
fitness experts, and various
specialists on all topics concern-
ing pregnancy and puerperium,
care of the family, parenthood,
and the mother’s general health
and care, through articles, social
media platforms and monthly
gatherings for the mothers.
Jubilee Insurance CEO, Deep-
ak Pandey, said motherhood is a
beautiful journey that all wom-
Hoima District LC5 Chairman Kirungi Kadiri (L), Managing Director, Tullow en are privileged to walk.
Oil Jimmy Mugerwa (2nd L) hands over a laptop and certificate to one
of the beneficiaries of a computer training initiative held in Hoima and
Buliisa Districts. A total of 70 computers and laptops were donated by
Tullow on Sept 30.  INDEPENDENT/ ALFRED OCHWO
“And so, to emphasize how
precious this journey is, Jubilee
Insurance is making sure moth-
ers lack for nothing as they pre-
pare for their little ones. There
is no need to take this journey
alone, we will hold your hand to
the finish line with an extra set
of hands,” he said.
“The Jubilee Mum’s Club is
part is driven by what’s at the
core of our hearts as Jubilee
Insurance; Customer satisfaction
and well-being to combat mater-
nal mortality and morbidity.”
For mothers under Jubilee,
Pandey said a 360-care package
covering Ultrasound scans,
pregnancy tests, blood tests,
baby monitoring kits, doctor/
midwife consultations and fol-
low-up, training sessions, and a
variety of vendors with the best
mother-child care products will
be provided.
This development comes in a
few days the Medical Concierge
Group through its direct-to-con-
sumer service called Rocket
Health entered into partnership
with UAP Old Mutual Insur-
ance Uganda Limited (UAPOM)
to extend telemedicine services
to the insurer’s members.

Share price movement (Oct. 01)

Security Oct. 01 Aug.08 Movement
BATU 30,000 30000 00
BOBU 128 128 00
CENT 1,060 1,157 8.4
QCL 128 130 1.5
DFCU 650 650 00
EABL 7,054 7,243 2.6
EBL 1,341 1,446 7.2
JHL 11,668 13,261 12
KA 86 105 18
KCB 1,416 1,411 0.3
NIC 12 12 00
NMG 1,449 1,609 9.9
NVL 325 329 1.2
SBU 27 29 6.8
President Museveni hands over the best exhibitor award to Steel & Tube UCHM 10 12 16.6
Industries Chairman, Joseph Yiga. This was at the Uaganda International Trade UCL 13 14 7.1
Fair annaul event held at UMA on Oct. 07.   INDEPENDENT/ ALFRED OCHWO UMEME 297 297 00
ALSI -- -- --

32 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
I
By Agencies
t seems intuitive that cooked food
and raw food likely impact the gut
microbiome in different ways, but
there has been little to no research on
this topic — so far. A new study in
mice and humans now confirms this
notion.
Because cooking involves exposing
food to heat, it tends to change the various
foods’ physical and chemical properties.
But do these alterations change the delicate
microbial environment of the gut?
That is the question that researchers from
the University of California, San Francisco,
Harvard University, in Cambridge, MA, and
other institutions recently set out to answer.
“Our lab and others have studied how
different kinds of diet, such as vegetarian
versus meat-based diets, impact the
microbiome,” says the senior author of
the new study, Peter Turnbaugh, Ph.D.,
an associate professor at the University of
California, San Francisco.
“We were surprised to discover that no
one had studied the fundamental question
of how cooking itself alters the composition
of the microbial ecosystems in our guts,” he
adds.
Cooked foods alter bacterial diversity
In the new study — the findings of which
appear in Nature Microbiology — the
researchers started by looking at how dif-
ferent types of cooked and raw food might
affect the gut microbiota of mice.
To do so, they fed mice a diet of either raw
or cooked beef or raw or cooked sweet pota-
to. The team used these foods, in particular,
because previous studies had shown that
cooking alters their nutritional components
and because both commonly feature in
human diets.
First, the researchers found, surprisingly,
that raw meat and cooked meat did not
affect the mice’s gut microbiota in obviously
different ways. However, there were clear
differences between how raw and cooked
sweet potatoes affected the gut environment
in rodents.
Mice on a raw potato diet had poorer bac-
terial diversity in the gut, as well as slightly
fewer bacteria, compared with baseline
measurements. They also had a higher pro-
portion of Bacteroidetes bacteria, which play
a key role in the degradation of glycans, a
form of sugar.
To confirm these findings, the researchers
performed another series of experiments, in
which they fed mice not just raw and cooked
sweet potatoes, but also white potatoes,
Cooking food may have had important implications in the evolution of the gut microbiome.
Cooked or raw food
How do they impact on your tummy?
beets, carrots, corn, and peas — foods with
various degrees of starchiness and digest-
ibility.
As before, the researchers found that
cooked versus raw potatoes — of both vari-
eties — affected microbial diversity in the
gut differently. The same was not true of the
other foods.
This, the authors explain in their study
paper, is likely because potatoes — unlike
the other foods in this experiment — have “a
high quantity of low digestibility starch,” a
carbohydrate with properties that are trans-
formed by exposure to heat.
“We were surprised to see that the differ-
ences were not only due to changing carbo-
hydrate metabolism, but also may be driven
by the chemicals found in plants,” notes
Turnbaugh.
“To me, this really highlights the impor-
tance of considering the other components of
our diet and how they impact gut bacteria,”
he adds.
The team also noticed that mice on the
raw food diets lost weight, which seemed to
suggest that the changes in the gut micro-
biome may be responsible. However, when
the researchers transplanted gut bacteria
from mice fed raw diets to mice eating regu-
lar chow, the latter actually gained fat.
This conundrum left the researchers at a
loss, and they are still trying to find out what
may have caused this surprising outcome.
Possible implications for human health
At the final stage of their research, the
investigators teamed up with a professional
chef and recruited five healthy women and
three healthy men aged 24–40 who agreed to
take part in the dietary experiment.
The chef prepared comparable raw or
cooked plant-based meals, which the partic-
ipants tried in random order for 3 days each.
After 3 days on the raw or cooked diet, the
participants submitted stool samples to the
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
laboratory for analysis. Every participant
tried each diet.
Once more, the researchers noticed clear
differences between populations of gut
bacteria following exposure to raw versus
cooked foods. However, there were sub-
tle differences in the alterations that the
researchers found in the human microbiota,
compared with the mice microbiota.
In the future, the researchers aim to con-
duct further studies that will allow them
to better understand not just how cooked
food impacts gut bacteria, but also why
there are differences between how cooked
food impacts humans, compared with other
mammals.
“It was exciting to see that the impact of
cooking we see in rodents is also relevant to
humans, although interestingly, the specifics
of how the microbiome was affected differed
between the two species,” said Peter Turn-
baugh, Ph.D.
“We’re very interested in doing larger and
longer intervention and observational stud-
ies in humans to understand the impact of
longer term dietary changes,” he added.
The senior researcher also explains that,
going forward, it is important to understand
how raw versus cooked diets may impact
weight gain and loss and to explore various
underlying biological mechanisms.
Moreover, he notes, scientists should try
and find out how the practice of cooking has
affected the human species over millennia,
as our bodies transitioned from processing
raw food to more complex meals.
“The observation that everyday foods
disrupt gut bacterial physiology when
consumed raw raises opportunities for
mining the human diet for therapeutics and
prompts a polypharmacological view of the
interactions between the gut microbiome
and dietary small molecules,” the research-
ers conclude in their paper.
33
comment
By Mildred Barungi, PhD
Resources for agriculture in Uganda
Planning and allocating resources to agriculture must
follow five principles and 20 interconnected actions
A
world where food is nutritious and
accessible for everyone, in which
natural resources are managed in a
way that maintains ecosystem func-
tions to support current and future human
needs.” This is what the 2030 Agenda for
sustainable development seeks to achieve.
This universal Agenda through the Sus-
tainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a
plan that all countries (including Uganda)
resolved to implement.
Development of sustainable food and
agriculture systems is central to whether
a significant number of the SDGs are
attained; especially those that relate to
health and improvement of wellbeing,
fostering more responsible production
and consumption, ensuring decent work
and employment, and promoting envi-
ronmental stewardship. It is further noted
tha, a transformation towards more sus-
tainable food and agriculture has great
potential to revitalise the rural landscape
and deliver inclusive growth in the con-
text of SDGs. I should quickly add that
strengthening sustainability in food and
agriculture systems is a process, which
requires conviction, political commit-
ment, knowledge and people’s participa-
tion and ownership.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal
Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) is in the
process of developing the third sector
strategic plan that will be aligned to
the third National Development Plan
(NDPIII). As MAAIF prepares its sector
strategic plan, it should take into consid-
eration the guide by FAO, dubbed “A new
approach for mainstreaming sustainable
food and agriculture in the implemen-
tation of SDGs”. FAO developed this
approach to support and accelerate the
transition to more sustainable food and
agriculture systems. The approach is
based on five principles and 20 intercon-
nected actions as presented below.
The first principle underscores the need
to increase productivity, employment
and value addition in food systems.
Improving productivity is key to trans-
forming the livelihoods of people, yet
smallholder farmers continue to lack
access to resources and services. There-
fore, in light of this principle, MAAIF’s
strategy should contain interventions
34 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
that will: facilitate access to productive
resources, finance and services; con-
nect smallholders to markets; diversify
farming households’ production and
income; and strengthen farmers’ capaci-
ties.
The second principle calls for conser-
vation, protection and enhancement of
natural resources. Food and agricultural
production depends on natural resources
and therefore the sustainability of pro-
duction depends on the sustainability
of the resources themselves. Healthy
soil produces healthy food and leads to
better nutrition. However, unsustainable
land use practices and human pressures
on resources are reaching critical limits.
Thus, in line with the second principle,
the agricultural sector strategy should
contain clear interventions aimed at:
enhancing and restoring land fertility;
protecting water and management of
scarcity; protecting biodiversity and
ecosystems; and reducing losses, partly
through reuse and recycling.
The third principle is about improving
livelihoods and fostering inclusive eco-
nomic growth. Ensuring that farmers
have adequate access to and control of
productive resources, and addressing the
gender gap, can contribute significantly
to reducing poverty and food insecurity
in; especially, rural areas. Rural popula-
As MAAIF
finalises
development
of the third
sector strategic
plan, the five
principle
and 20
interconnected
actions need
to be seriously
considered
tions are among the most marginalised
people in society. Their limited access to
knowledge, information and resources,
and restricted organisational capacity and
bargaining power often leave them ill pre-
pared, and unable to benefit from oppor-
tunities meant for rural transformation.
Therefore, within the agricultural sector
strategy, there should be planned inter-
ventions that will: empower people and
fight inequalities, promote secure tenure
rights, ensure use of social protection to
enhance productivity, and improve nutri-
tion and promote balance diets.
The fourth principle calls for enhancing
resilience of people, communities and
ecosystems; especially to climate change
and market volatility. Extreme weather
conditions, market volatility and civil
strife impair the stability of agriculture.
Polices, technologies and practices that
build farmers’ resilience to shocks would
definitely contribute to sustainability.
Thus, in accordance to this principle,
within MAAIF’s strategy, there should
be interventions meant to: prevent and
protect against shocks, prepare for and
respond to shocks, address and adapt to
climate change, and strengthen ecosystem
resilience.
The fifth and last principle is about
adapting good governance to new chal-
lenges. The transition to sustainable
production can only take place when
there is the right balance between private
and public sector initiatives. Equally
important is accountability, equity, trans-
parency and the rule of law. In applying
this principle, MAAIF should have
strategic interventions that are aimed at:
enhancing policy dialogue and coordina-
tion, strengthening innovation systems,
improving investment and finance, and
strengthening the enabling environment.
Therefore, as MAAIF finalises devel-
opment of the third sector strategic plan,
the five principle and 20 interconnected
actions need to be seriously considered.
Application of the guiding principles and
actions will certainly ensure sustainability
in food and agricultural systems.
Mildred Barungi, PhDis a Research Fellow
at the Economic Policy Research Centre
(EPRC).

By Asmita Parshotam
Facilitating trade in Africa
How to overcome supply constraints, inefficient
customs controls, and poor border coordination
W
ith the United States and
China locked in a trade war,
climate action lagging behind
climate reality, and the World
Trade Organisation’s Appellate Body at
risk of becoming inoperable, the theme of
last week’s WTO public forum – “Trading
Forward: Adapting to a Changing World”
– couldn’t be more appropriate. But if the
global trading system is to be adapted to
twenty-first-century realities, careful atten-
tion must be paid to the needs of developing
countries.
Consider Africa, which has been working
hard lately to deepen intra-continental trade
and integration. While such efforts – most
notably the African Continental Free Trade
Area (AfCFTA) – have the potential to spur
growth and development, their impact
depends both on complementary global
reforms and on countries’ implementation
of WTO agreements. Success is far from
guaranteed.
The Trade Facilitation Agreement, which
entered into force in 2017, is a case in point.
One of the few WTO agreements to be rat-
ified in recent years, the TFA places devel-
oping members’ ambitions at the forefront.
It aims to expedite the movement, clearance,
and release of goods across borders; estab-
lishes measures for effective cooperation
between customs and other relevant author-
ities; and provides for technical assistance
and capacity building.
The TFA recognises that trade facilitation
rests on three key pillars: simplification,
harmonisation, and transparency. Given its
global uptake, it has the potential to ensure
that reforms reflecting this recognition are
“locked in” across countries, including those
whose governments might otherwise be
reluctant to implement them.
For African countries that manage to
implement the TFA fully, the gains could be
massive. According to a 2015 WTO study,
the TFA could lead to a 35% increase in
exports from least-developed African coun-
tries, a 3.5% boost to economic growth across
developing economies, and a 20% improve-
ment in the diversification of exports.
Yet, for many African countries, imple-
menting trade-facilitation reforms will
require overcoming concurrent challenges,
such as supply constraints, slow economic
growth, inefficient customs controls, and
poor border coordination. In this sense, the
AfCFTA – which recognises the hard and
soft infrastructure challenges hampering
trade-facilitation reforms on the continent
– complements the TFA. But, because the
AfCFTA is yet to be implemented, its contri-
bution remains theoretical.
To enable developing countries to pursue
complementary reforms, the TFA allows
them longer implementation periods,
according to their individual needs and pri-
orities. At the same time, it provides a kind
of “matchmaking mechanism” for donors to
provide technical and financial assistance.
But for these partnerships to work, recip-
ient countries must identify their priorities,
potential barriers to progress, and the inter-
ventions that are needed to overcome them.
They must then communicate their conclu-
sions clearly to the donors with which they
are matched.
A recent study by the South African Insti-
tute of International Affairs (SAIIA) goes
some way toward demonstrating how to do
that, by examining the case of land-locked,
low-income Zambia. Among the study’s key
findings is that Zambia must go “from land-
locked to land-linked” by creating effective
regional transportation networks and
building close relations with neighbours, in
order to ensure well-functioning customs
administration, border control, and access
to ports. Both physical infrastructure and
information and communication technology
The necessary
complementary
reforms
addressing
specific country-
level challenges
depend on
the proper
functioning of the
broader global
trading system
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
COMMENT
are essential.
Although Zambia does engage its neigh-
bours in rolling out one-stop border posts,
these working relationships are not without
their challenges and require a balancing act
between shared regional goals and national
priorities. Carrying out port-of-entry oper-
ations at a single common border crossing
would reduce time spent at borders, lower
logistics costs, foster cooperation, and enable
the integration of information and risk man-
agement. To secure the necessary buy-in
for this and other trade-facilitation reforms,
the private sector must be included in deci-
sion-making.
The SAIIA study also underscores the need
for Zambia to embed its trade-facilitation
reform priorities into the agendas of a range
of government agencies, thereby improving
coordination. All of these agencies must
understand not only national priorities, but
also how efforts can be directed toward
improving trade conditions and deepening
regional integration, thereby contributing to
wider global development goals. Training
programs and capacity-building support
offered by the United Nations Conference
on Trade and Development and the Global
Alliance for Trade Facilitation can support
this effort by helping to create a pool of gov-
ernment personnel with the knowledge and
skills to implement long-term reforms.
The TFA, like any WTO agreement, is a
powerful tool for progress. But it cannot
work in isolation. The necessary comple-
mentary reforms addressing specific coun-
try-level challenges depend on the proper
functioning of the broader global trading
system. That is why, rather than allowing a
couple of large actors to derail that system,
the experts gathering for the WTO public
forum this week must advance a vision for a
system that accounts for all member states’
needs, beginning with the developing coun-
tries that are too often left behind.
Asmita Parshotam, a research associate at the
South African Institute of International Affairs,
is a policy expert at the European Union-funded
Ecosystem Development for Small Enterprise
Programme.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
35
COMMENT
By Roger E. A. Farmer
Why we need more economists
The economics profession should not be so defensive
in the face of criticism over increasing inequality
I
n a recent commentary in The New York
Times, Binyamin Appelbaum placed the
blame for increasing inequality in the
United States squarely at the feet of econ-
omists. He cited the work, among others, of
the Nobel laureate economist Robert Lucas,
who directed policymakers’ attention to-
ward the problem of growth and away from
redistribution. Appelbaum also cited statis-
tics on life expectancy in the U.S., which has
fallen in recent years, owing partly to higher
rates of drug abuse and suicide among eco-
nomically disadvantaged groups.
But economists have not ignored the
problem of inequality – far from it.
Inequality has become a central research
area in economics over the past decade, and
has entered the public discourse in the U.S.
because of the penetrating work like that of
Princeton’s Anne Case and Nobel laureate
economist Angus Deaton. Moreover, there
has been increasing collaboration between
economists and other researchers from
both the social and physical sciences – an
approach I actively support through my
involvement with the Rebuilding Macroeco-
nomics project at the National Institute of
Economic and Social Research in the United
Kingdom.
The economics profession should not be so
defensive in the face of criticism like Appel-
baum’s. Economists are not omniscient, of
course. But insights from the dismal science
– and in particular the advocacy of mar-
ket-based policies to boost prosperity – have
proven their worth many times over.
When I began working in the field of
macroeconomics in the 1980s, the discipline
was still dominated by Keynesian models.
The questions we addressed then are now
coming back into fashion: What causes
business cycles? Is there a tradeoff between
unemployment and inflation? How can we
design economic policies to improve the
performance of the economy and prevent
recessions?
But in the two decades from the late 1980s
to the Great Recession of 2008, macroecono-
mists shifted their focus away from business
cycles and toward economic growth. And
the influence of University of Chicago-based
economists like Lucas was an important
reason for that shift.
I still recall the whispers at the summer
meetings of the US National Bureau of
Economic Research in the mid-1980s that
36 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
“Lucas is working on development.” This
was unthinkable at the time: mathematical
economists and economic theorists ruled the
roost, and development economics was well
down the pecking order of respectable fields.
Yet in a remarkable 1988 article, Lucas
stressed the importance of understanding
why the economies of Hong Kong, Singa-
pore, South Korea, and Taiwan had, by the
1980s, far outperformed others that had
been at a similar stage of development two
or three decades earlier. “The consequences
for human welfare involved in questions like
these are simply staggering,” Lucas wrote.
“Once one starts to think about them, it is
hard to think about anything else.” That
1988 paper was instrumental in altering the
research aspirations of several subsequent
cohorts of young economists.
Although I do not always see eye to eye
with my Chicago colleagues, they were
right to advocate market-based policies as a
means of stimulating growth. Markets are
not perfect, but a system that rewards people
differentially for their insights and efforts is
more effective than any other known form of
social organisation at pulling human beings
out of poverty. A rising tide really does lift
all boats.
If reducing inequality were the overriding
priority, then perhaps the answer would be
to move away from capitalist market econ-
omies and toward socialist or communist
Market
capitalism was
also thought to
be doomed in the
early twentieth
century, owing
to the kind
of crushing
inequality that is
resurfacing today
systems. As Karl Marx argued: “From each
according to his ability, to each according to
his needs.” But that approach was tried in
the twentieth century, notably in the Soviet
Union and in China under Mao Zedong, and
the outcome in both cases was appalling. To
blame inequality and other problems arising
from rapid globalisation on the institution of
the market could lead to a step backward.
Market capitalism was also thought to
be doomed in the early twentieth century,
owing to the kind of crushing inequality
that is resurfacing today. Yet reports of its
demise, like those of Mark Twain’s, were
greatly exaggerated. Markets’ resilience
reflects their remarkable effectiveness at
solving apparently intractable social prob-
lems. But they operate within political and
institutional constraints that evolve as poli-
cymakers learn from their mistakes.
For example, the deregulation of capital
markets in the 1980s went too far. True,
deregulation resulted in massive gains and,
on balance, reduced inequality rather than
increasing it. But those gains went to urban
elites in the West and to rural peasants in
China and India. As I argue in my book,
`Prosperity for All’, there is surely a better
institutional design that can preserve two
centuries of democratic progress.
In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries,
Western democracies evolved systems of
political rights that allowed working- and
middle-class citizens to share in the benefits
of markets. But global capital flows have
steadily eroded those rights, because they
overwhelm the ability of democracies to
retain the benefits of market exchange for
their citizens.
The solution is not to get rid of free mar-
kets, but rather to redesign institutions. And
to get that right, we don’t need fewer econo-
mists; we need more.
Roger E. A. Farmer is Professor of
Economics at the University of Warwick,
Distinguished Emeritus Professor of
Economics at UCLA, Management team and
Hub Leader for Rebuilding Macroeconomics,
and the author of Prosperity for All.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
www.project-syndicate.org
 ART | BOOKS | SOCIETY | TRAVEL | CULTURE
A
By Dominic Muwanguzi
nyone who has
seen `The Stride,
2007’, the monu-
ment in the space
between the par-
liament building
and the Serena International
Conference Centre in Kampala
city, or the Kabamba Millitary
Monument and the `Building
the Nation’ monument in Kigali
Rwanda notices that they have
one aspect in common. They
are towering in size, exuding
rare studio finesse, and are true
works of genius, studio deftness
and prowess.
Well, they were all sculpted
by Maria Naita, the renowned
Ugandan sculptress, on the
team. And she passed on recent-
ly, on Sept.27, after a long battle
with cancer.
Many are mourning her
departure but many more are
celebrating her legacy. She men-
tored many apprentices and
infused success, victory, and big
dreams in those who knew her.
The celebrated artist Taga
Nuwagaba was in the same class
with Naita at Makerere Univer-
sity where she graduated with a
Bachelor’s Degree in Industrial
and Fine Art and a Master’s in
Industrial and Fine Art (MIFA).
Taga once described how he
instinctively realised, from the
way she handled the clay in the
sculpture studio, that Naita was
destined to be one of the greats.
“She would pick a small lump
of clay and quickly mold some-
thing with utmost ease. At that
moment I knew that she truly
was destined for a successful
art career,” Taga recalls. Taga
was not surprised that the ever
glowing Naita was popular
among her lecturers and fellow
students. They became good
friends.
Naita chose to specialise
in sculpture for her Master’s
degree and her name soon
exuded respect and admiration
on the local contemporary art
scene as one of the most cele-
Maria Naita, Uganda’s
master sculptress dies
She challenged norms of traditional
male-dominated art making
brated women sculptresses of
her generation. She defied the
traditional norm that women
cannot sculpt and built towering
figurines from clay, hardwood,
fibre glass and brass.
Her choice of career and suc-
cess as a sculptor inspired many
young female artists into the
genre. They looked up to her for
the magnificent monuments that
she built in public spaces locally
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
and beyond.
Yet the most alluring aspect
of her almost two decade career
is how she made the brave
decision to be a full time artist
during a period when many
female art graduates either
chose to teach at university or
switched to “formal” careers. It
was an act of passion and focus
from a very intelligent mind.
Naita could have chosen
painting because was equally
talented. As a painter she loved
to tell stories on social themes,
specifically, the family setting. A
mother and wife herself, many
of her paintings conveyed hap-
py moments in family settings.
She painted children playing; a
toddler wearing their mommy’s
shoes and holding car keys as
if going to work. Her women
exuded African beauty as she
often dressed them in traditional
garb of the Ssuka or barkcloth
that covered the bosom; a sign
of decency and pride. She was
a Muganda where beauty of
a woman is not physical but
moral, reflected in dress and
behaviour.
She was a social commentator
and her women were artistes
playing the flute, fashionistas
and mothers; all metaphors of
the diverse faces of woman in
the community.
Naita showed no fear of
crossing the boundaries of
conventional norms of art
production and yet she created
no controversy. She will always
be remembered as a great
inspiration.
37
iPhone User Sues Apple for Turning Him Gay
A Russian iPhone user recently filed a
one million ruble lawsuit against Apple,
accusing the American corporation of indi-
rectly turning him gay. In a court filing that
went viral on Russia’s internet, the plaintiff
alleges that he became “mired in a same-sex
relationship” after receiving the wrong kind
of cryptocurrency on a virtual wallet app
that he installed on his iPhone in 2017. The
man, identified as one D. Razumilov claims
that he received 69 GayCoins – a cryptocur-
rency designed for member of the LGBT
community – from an anonymous sender.
The mysterious transfer was accompanied
the message “don’t knock it till you’re tried
it”, which kind of made sense to Razumi-
lov and eventually pushed him to become
involved in a gay relationship.

World’s creepiest World’s most

hiking trail
Just outside the city of Atlanta,
in Georgia, lies one of the strang-
est, most disturbing hiking trails
in the world – Doll’s Head Trail.
Faithful to its name, this 1.5-mile
course is lined with creepy doll
heads that seem to be following
you with their gaze as you walk
by. The 1.5-mile-long hiking trail
is the brainchild of Atlanta area
carpenter Joel Slaton. He origi-
nally used the junk he found on
his regular hikes through Con-
stitution Park to build artistic
displays, but the trail gradually
became a collaborative project
of several regular hikers in the
area. The dozens of disembod-
ied doll heads, many of them
part of complex art displays,
create an eerie atmosphere, but
knowing that civilization is just
a few hundred meters away
keeps the fear factor at man-
ageable levels. Still, Doll’s Head
Trail is considered by many the
creepiest hiking trail in the US,
even the world.
Woman wears wedding
dress everywhere
Determined to get
her money’s worth out
of the wedding dressed
she spent over $1,000,
an Australian woman
has been wearing
her wedding dress
everywhere, a year after
her wedding. 43-year-
old Tammy Hall leads
an anti-consumerism
lifestyle and rarely buys
any new clothes. But
last year, she faced a
dilemma. She wanted
to look good on her
wedding, but how could
expensive grapes
There are hundreds of grape varieties cul-
tivated in japan, but only one so coveted that
it can sell for several hundreds of dollars per
grape (that’s individual grape, not bunch).
The Ruby Roman was developed in Japan’s
Ishikawa Prefecture and is considered one of
the world’s most expensive fruits.
In 2008, soon after making its commercial
debut, the Ruby Roman grape variety made
international headlines after a 700-gram
bunch sold for 10,000 yen (Approx.Shs3.4
million), or Shs96,000 per grape. It was
already touted as the world’s most expen-
sive grape variety, and that reputation was
cemented eight years later, when a 26-grape
bunch sold for a whopping 1.1 million yen
(Approx.Shs40 million), or roughly Shs1.4
million per grape. Ruby Roman grapes are
hard to come by, with most bunches being
she justify spending a available through auctions, but Premium
small fortune on garment Ruby Rose are extremely difficult to find.
she would only wear on For example, in 2010, only six bunches of
that day? “In the end grapes were certified premium, and in 2011
I decided that if I was no bunches qualified for the premium label.
going to get a wedding To be granted the Premium label, Ruby
dress, I’d make sure I Roman grapes must weigh over 30 grams,
wore it again and again,” and the whole bunch must be at least 700
Tammy says, “I’ve grams heavy. Every grape must have a
worn it to do things sugar content of at least 18 percent. In other
like play basketball, go words, they must be perfect.
fishing and even to hike
across a mud crater.”
Tammy says that she
has gotten some weird
looks from people, but
no negative comments.

7-year-old girl reaches puberty - sleeping with the lights on blamed

Chinese media recently reported the
unusual case of a girl who reached puberty
at age seven, presumably because of sleep-
ing with the lights on every night for the last
three years.
At age 7, Dandan (pseudonym) is already
1.20m-tall, towering over most girls her
age. When she first started growing, her
mother was delighted, and didn’t even stop
to wonder why the girl had grown by about
10 cm in a single year. It wasn’t until one
day, when she was giving Dandan a bath,
and she noticed that she had developed
breasts, that the woman realized something
was wrong. She took the 7-year-old to the
hospital and was shocked to learn that her
daughter had reached puberty at least three
years earlier than usual. After analyzing the
possibilities, doctors told Dandan’s parents
that there was a high chance that all
those years of sleeping with the lights
on could have triggered puberty much
earlier than normal.

38 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
When buying an SUV
Should it be all-wheel drive or two-wheel drive?
By Agencies
F
WD vs AWD: So you want to buy an
SUV but aren’t sure if it should be a
front-wheel drive or all-wheel drive.
Here’s what the difference is.
The SUV is attractive for having some
rough-terrain ability and better dirt-road
composure. And its higher seating position
is both easier to get in and out of (including
for babies and kids) with generally better
visibility.
You will, however, need to consider
whether you need your SUV with just two
driven wheels (2WD) or if it should drive all
wheels (AWD). Note that some heavy-duty
offroaders are 2WD onroad, and can only
drive all four wheels offroad. We’ll call
them 4WDs. Also, many AWDs drive the
front wheels with the rears only helping
as required. These are called on-demand
AWDs. There is also the FWD – front-wheel
drive. All FWDs are 2WD. And all RWD –
rear-wheel drive are 2WD.
Do I need a two-wheel drive or all-
wheel drive?
For a while, SUVs were exclusively AWD.
Now, many are available in both AWD and
2WD. This leaves us with many models
which can now be bought as a 2WD, and
sometimes in the same spec but with slight-
ly more expensive AWD.
2WD and FWD vs AWD: The differences
Weight
All-wheel drive and four-wheel drive
vehicles aren’t much heavier, though the
heavy-duty Ford Ranger and Mitsubishi
Triton have a set of crawler gears which
accounts for the extra weight.
Purchase price & fuel economy
An all-wheel drive SUV costs more to
buy. But the fuel economy – part of the run-
ning costs – are hardly any extra, around 5
percent in extra fuel consumption. Expect
4WDs to cost a fraction more to service as
there’s another differential (set of gears on
an axle), and the extra weight would wear
the brakes slightly more. However, those
differences will be very minor and out-
weighed by your driving technique. In the
case of the SUVs, driving all four wheels at
least some of the time would even out tyre
wear.
Fuel consumption
The difference in fuel consumption costs
is not much between the 2WDs and the
4WDs. And there are two reasons 4WDs
use more fuel – the first is extra weight and
the second is the energy required to turn the
second set of shafts and cogs to drive the
other set of wheels.
Oct. 11 - 17 2019
Performance
When accelerating and cornering
in dry on-road conditions there will
be little difference, but in lower-trac-
tion conditions such as dirt roads or
on wet roads then the better AWDs
have a distinct advantage over FWDs,
being able to put power to the ground
more effectively. And that goes double
for offroading. The 2WD SUV can be
driven offroad but the AWD is a much,
much better performer. Towing is typi-
cally better with AWD too, for example,
those quick pullaways on a slight angle,
and when you’re reversing the trailer
on uneven surfaces or low-grip terrain.
What’s better – FWD or AWD?
The 2WD versions of SUVs are much
cheaper to buy and slightly cheaper
to run. If you only ever want to drive
on bitumen roads and occasional dirt
roads, they make economic sense.
However, if you ever intend to drive in
lower-traction conditions such as snow,
offroad, or extensive dirt or rough road
driving, then you will find AWD a ben-
efit. If you ever intend to drive rougher
terrain beyond dirt roads, then consider
AWDs only. In terms of resale value,
someone looking for a 2WD may take
an AWD, but someone set on an AWD
won’t want a 2WD.
39
global comment
By Jim O’Neill
The issue behind our issues
Why the experts struggle to understand the issues
but the same issues are apparent to many voters
A
s the chair of the Royal Institute
of International Affairs (Chatham
House), I recently hosted an offsite
event with some of the organisa-
tion’s strongest supporters, research staff,
and other leaders. I left with a clearer view
of three of the biggest issues of our time:
slowing productivity growth, anti-establish-
ment politics, and the rise of China.
Generally speaking, the reason that we
have so many “issues” is that the inter-
national capitalist model has stopped
functioning as it should, particularly in
the years since the 2008 financial crisis.
This has become increasingly apparent
to many Western voters, even as experts
have struggled to understand the precise
nature of the economic and political shifts
underway.
According to the economic textbooks
that I grew up with in the 1970s, suc-
cessful businesses within a market-based
system should deliver profits to their
equity owners, which in turn should lead
to stronger investment and rising wages.
At the same time, the potential for profits
should attract new market entrants,
which in turn should erode the incum-
bents’ profitability, fuel competition, and
spur innovation.
This pattern no longer holds. Incum-
bents’ reported profits seem to rise
persistently – often with the help of
extremely efficient balance-sheet and
financial management – but there is
scarce evidence of rising investment or
wages. As a result, productivity across
many advanced economies appears to be
trending lower.
In these circumstances, it is little wonder
that Western voters have been attracted
to anti-establishment political parties. But
this does not mean that liberal democracy
is breaking down, as one often hears.
In fact, a forthcoming Chatham House
report casts substantial doubt on the cred-
ibility of that alarmist claim.
Between the 1970s and the start of
the new millennium, politics in many
Western countries moved rightward – a
trend epitomised by New Labour in the
United Kingdom and the Democratic
Leadership Council in the United States.
For a while, this mode of politics seemed
to work fine. Under conditions of per-
sistent growth, low inflation, and a rising
40 Oct. 11 - 17 2019
tide that lifted all (or most) boats, a neo-
liberal consensus crystallised, and alter-
native views were marginalised.
Everything changed after 2008. Over
the past decade, markets seemed to have
stopped delivering widely shared growth,
and mainstream parties have not come
up with any new ideas. Voters have thus
turned to the once-sidelined voices on the
left and right. The far-left policies being
proposed by UK Labour leader Jeremy
Corbyn almost certainly would not work.
But that is beside the point. What matters
to disadvantaged voters is that Corbyn’s
proposals seem to offer something that
the current system does not. Similarly,
those on the right are unlikely to deliver
greater prosperity, but their ideas have
the virtue of sounding different. Blaming
immigration, “globalists,” and China for
everything can make for a powerful sales
pitch.
In order to offer voters a better choice,
the center must do much more to ensure
that market forces are delivering the same
results as they did in previous decades.
And here, throwing around sweeping
accusations of “populism” and the end of
democracy won’t help.
In trying to explain the current moment,
too many of my liberal colleagues are
relying on a mistaken narrative. The
problem is not that scary new populist
forces are destroying the post-war eco-
Western
policymakers
should be
countering
Sinophobia and
encouraging
their societies to
live comfortably
with China
nomic model; rather, it is the other way
around. The rise of new political move-
ments is the logical result of the earlier
period of neoliberal consolidation, and of
the failure of centrist thinking to deliver
the same results it once did.
To be sure, there is some merit to the
argument that social media have facili-
tated the spread of heterodox – and some-
times toxic – points of view. The leading
social-media companies clearly have not
spent enough on protecting their users
from sophisticated propaganda, scams,
and the like. But the real question is why
those messages have found so many
receptive ears. After all, the same technol-
ogies that allow marginal voices to reach
a much larger audience are also available
to centrists. Barack Obama’s 2008 US
presidential campaign harnessed the
power of these platforms to great effect.
Finally, the Sino-American dispute
over trade and technology may be more
dramatic for involving a non-liberal, non-
Western rising power. But the essence of
the conflict is economic. Within the next
decade or so, China’s economy will likely
surpass that of the U.S. as the largest in
the world.
To my mind, Western policymakers
should be countering Sinophobia and
encouraging their societies to live com-
fortably with China. Economic progress
in China will not prevent America’s 327
million people from becoming individ-
ually wealthier themselves. If the West
adopts sensible policies, its own firms and
consumers stand to benefit substantially
from China’s growth.
As for think tanks like Chatham House,
it is clear that we must play a more active
role in setting the facts straight on all of
these issues. It would be a tragedy to sac-
rifice our collective prosperity as a result
of unclear thinking.
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman
Sachs Asset Management and a former UK
Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham
House.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2019.
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