Language phylogenies &

Human Prehistory in South-East Asia

and the Pacific

Simon J Greenhill

Max Planck Institute for the

Science of Human History
>50,000
BP
“Pulse/pause model”
Rapid expansions & pauses
 “Slow boat to Polynesia”
“…with the languages most likely
emerging during the Holocene within
Austronesia itself. This would imply
an early offshoot to Taiwan…”
(Hill et al 2007)

17,000-13,000
 Pulse-Pause vs. Slow Boat
Predictions Pulse-Pause Slow Boat

1. Root Taiwan ISEA

2. Sequence Chained Two Pronged

3. Age ~5,500BP ~13 -17,000BP

4. Pattern Pulse/Pause ?
 Amis, Nataoran Dusun, Tambunan
Malay, Standard
Hulung Yeresiam Mwatebu Serudung Murut
Papapana Pije Mokerang Engdewu Mondropolon Rakahanga−Manihiki
Ida...an
Kuijau Tanibili Terebu Serua Vehes Nuaulu, North Lorediakarkar
Fortsenal Gumawana
Agta, Alabat Island Huaulu Narango Lehali Sunum Laghu Kaibobo Erokwanas
Ayta, Sorsogon Atta, Faire Hoti NumeSerui−Laut
Berawan, Central Kinabatangan, Upper
Nuaulu, South Agta, Dupaninan Gone Dau Valpei Ketangalan
Agta, Isarog Wa...ema Gana Letemboi
Ata Avava Watut, North
Lengilu Yarsun Nokuku Pano Wabo Agta, Pahanan Ayta, Ambala Tokelauan
BasayNasarian Atta, Pamplona Buang, Mangga Sissano Timugon Murut Biga Alta, Southern Budong−Budong
Andio Mangseng Bookan
Neku Leipon Kayan, Mendalam Zenag Penan, Western Wogeo Gapapaiwa Teor Yamap Papitalai Oya...oya Melanau, Kanowit−Tanjong
Naka...ela Zazao Teanu Tulu−Bohuai Moklen Javanese, New Caledonian Namosi−Naitasiri−Serua
Galeya Wae Rana Arguni
Kamarian AkoletBina Roglai, Cacgia Wotu Saleman RemunSuau Subanen, Eastern Lindu Kalao Khehek Labu Masela, West
Kalinga, Majukayang Tarangan, West Paku Kohin Kapin
Makuva Neve...ei Ili...uunMwotlap Habun Maba Lala Ayta, Mag−antsi Watubela Balaesang Talondo... Melanau, Sibu
UjirBaybayanon Kola BiereboTagbanwa, Central Mpotovoro
Malay, Makassar Imroing Puluwatese Ambelau Gedaged Tagbanwa Laura Dori...o Liana−Seti Sa...ban
Pingelapese Kuni Wallisian Ambai Bakati..., Rara Iduna Arosi Rerep Mangareva Moksela
Papora−Hoanya Kawe Yaleba
Olrat Malalamai Ifugao, Amganad Lusi Rukai Lomaiviti Rampi Suwawa Uma... Lung Tela−Masbuar
Batak Dusun Witu Bwaidoka Buli KubuNinde Manobo, Cotabato Keapara Itneg, Inlaod Wab Kayeli
Unubahe Sian Saposa Embaloh Ifo Ifugao, Tuwali Buhid
Kalabakan Kayan, Baram Sama, Pangutaran Kaili, Unde Malay, Berau Ambrym, North Siar−Lak Wagawaga
Kaniet Mouk−Aria Pancana Owa Sikule Birao Tawbuid, Western
Waamwang Doga Port Vato Roma Mamanwa Waima...a Kaidipang Malo Isnag Ivatan Jangkang Ifugao, Batad Dobu Sawai I−wak Rapa Nui Lakon Vunapu
Salas
Masela, East Apma Gimi Bentong Hakö Marshallese Carolinian
Malay, Bacanese Vaeakau−Taumako Dela−Oenale Manobo, Matigsalug Gorakor Buhutu
Palumata Arop−Sissano Taje Itneg, Masadiit AgutaynenHaruku Ke...o Onin
Dondo Ampanang Enrekang Kairui−Midiki Waropen Goodenough, West Paulohi
Mandara Haroi Sorsoganon, Northern Hitu Roglai, Northern Napu Hoava Hmwaveke
Abai Sungai Dixon Reef Taupota Kodeoha Wemale
Bolango
Sambal, Botolan
Mapun Luhu Malay, Bukit Lembata, West Segai Hovongan Kereho
Drubea Binukid Tukang Besi South Manobo, Obo Ifugao, Mayoyao Kalinga, Butbut Sembakung Murut Minokok Dusun, Sugut
Kazukuru Andra−Hus Maleu−Kilenge Kap Helong Halia Kedang Galolen Siang Taloki
Thao Narom Mokilese Molima To...abaita
Tonsawang Simeulue Tandaganon Malagasy, Bara Bikol, Southern Catanduanes Manobo, Sarangani Ulithian Lisabata−Nuniali Alta, Northern
Legenyem
Amahai Cia−Cia Lembata, South Mengen Zabana Barok
Katabaga Bukitan Tring Patpatar
Ubir Kilivila Sanggau Leti Malagasy, Northern Betsimisaraka Moma
Bolinao Campalagian
Agta, Villa Viciosa Uma... Lasan Longgu Lewo Luang Basap Buru Baikeno Batak Mandailing
Panasuan
Giangan Duau Manobo, Agusan Taliabu Kiput Bobongko Sori−Harengan
Nukuoro Pendau
AoreTomadino Waru Ulau−Suain Bintauna
Caluyanun Saluan Iwal Malagasy, Tsimihety Batak Alas−Kluet Toura Modang Tutuba Solos Numèè Matukar
Kara Kalinga, Lubuagan Tahitian Kemak Maguindanaon Lou Nauete Bushi Baeggu
Orang Kanaq Gorap PááfangUra Makian, East Mo Malagasy, Tandroy−Mahafaly Gorontalo Pampangan Davawenyo Sula Maori Lau Dusun Deyah Dawawa Koba Satawalese
Meoswar
Tanna, Southwest Paicî Tagbanwa, Calamian
Medebur Idaté Tagabawa
Agta, Dicamay Koroni Seko Tengah Lotud Mori Atas RajongRibun Adonara MansakaTami Mandaya Tae... Kodi Batak Toba IbanSumbawa Kuanua Ga...dang Yalahatan Xârâgurè
Sekapan Daakaka Lamalera Sinaugoro Moronene Lubu
Gitua Sobei Larike−Wakasihu Mentawai Malagasy, Southern Betsimisaraka Samoan Makasar Bima Yakan Elu Bidayuh, Biatah
Lauan Wala Lisela Minigir Bariai
Maiwala Aribwaung
Toraja−Sa...dan Kankanay, Northern Bontok, Orowe

Indonesian
Dusun, Tempasuk ...Auhelawa Malagasy, TanosyDuri Southwestern Komodo
Mutu Alangan Paranan
Tiale Hawaiian Itneg, Moyadan Gela Mualang Bikol, West Albay Tulehu Gao Mangole
Maisin Boselewa
Babuza Baluan−Pam Bantik Rarotongan Bikol, Buhi...non Lampung Api Tiri
Kiribati Ngaju Ot Danum
Pohnpeian Bugawac Karao Gula...alaa Maragus
Wuvulu−Aua Papar Duke Dambi

Tagalog
Keninjal Tombulu Kerinci Tengger Lola Wejewa Bolongan Tawbuid, Eastern Mwerlap Masimasi
Duwet Rahambuu Lengo Liki Sulod Efate, South
Tumleo Seimat Natügu Tawoyan Kinaray−a Malagasy, Tesaka Romblomanon
Tunjung Ngad...a Ramoaaina
Patep Amblong
Lamatuka Amis Mongondow Eton Dorig Damar, West
Maden Banam Bay Wanukaka Higaonon Araki Balantak Mori Bawah Lungga
Namonuito Bughotu Maii
Manobo, Kinamiging Batak Angkola
Anuta Subanen, Northern Mamusi
Bugis Melanau, Central RotumanV...ënen Taut
Sama, Central Uma
Anuki
Kumalu Laiyolo
Nali Kalinga, Limos Awad Bing Ririo
NaunaBonggo Kaulong Bisaya, SabahMasbatenyo Waray−Waray Alor Bakumpai Ilongot
Pak−Tong Palawano, Brooke...s Point Nakanai Petats
Pekal Bikol, Rinconada Kei Tukang Besi North Bunama Blablanga Kulon−Pazeh
Baras Uripiv−Wala−Rano−Atchin ...Are...are Pamona Manggarai Duano
Irarutu Behoa Taman Ukit Fijian Banjar Sama, Balangingih Bungku Ambae,Kurudu West Bwanabwana

Javanese
Mato Tombelala Yoba
Tambotalo Bulu Lewo Eleng
Sikaiana Arta Kur Hula Karey
Loniu Kumbewaha Nimoa Nasal Bintulu Latu Penchal Litzlitz
Kove Batuley Ontong Java Tobilung
Port Sandwich Rembong
Damar, East Masiwang
Karore Dai Tsou Bakati...
Takuu Arifama−Miniafia Belait Sîshëë
Niuafo...ou Cemuhî Kis Kepo... Kakabai Aighon
Barakai Lasalimu Guliguli
Miu Jawe Bontok, Eastern
Agta, Central Cagayan Kairiru Manam Rongga Ghanongga Fedan
Kapingamarangi Temuan
Dororo Ouma Kallahan, Keley−i Ma...ya Sebop
Tomoip Karnai
Woi Lewotobi Bobot Neverver Emae
Haeke Arop−Lokep Tairaha Lamogai Ayta, Abellen Ratagnon
Butmas−Tur Ambul Lele Bwatoo Punan Merap
Busami Tsat Ambrym, Southeast
Sebuyau Atayal Nafi Dusun, Central Nage Fijian, Western Tungag

Sunda
Atta, Pudtol Bilbil Mamboru Ibaloi Iranun Wolio
Tukudede Mambae Batak Dairi Kambera Bikol, Central Cuyonon Tiruray Bola Molbog AdasenBerawan, East
Putoh Agta, Mt. Iriga
Wusi Vangunu
Nyindrou
Hanunoo
Kendayan MandarVitu Biak Musi Kalagan
NahavaqTarpia Sakao
Kadai
Nalik
Woleaian Kembayan Mekeo Chuukese Malay, Jambi Minangkabau Tii Itawit
Bipi Jarai
Hawu Lun Bawang
Riung
Kurti
Moken
Kayan, Busang Vamale
Tuamotuan Yaur
Bukat Avau Malol Ansus Inabaknon Sangir
Fanamaket Ambae, East Asilulu Kuri Mamasa Uab Meto Haji
Malay, Kedah Piu Kaili, Ledo Mae Tagakaulo Wandamen Keningau Murut
Sekak As Blaan, Koronadal Semandang Muyuw Iamalele Haigwai Dusner
Wampur Sewa Bay Kallahan, Kayapa
Aceh Hiligaynon Tausug
Cebuano
Lauje Li...o Malagasy, Antankarana Roon Xârâcùù Notsi
Kajaman Munggui Melanau, Daro−Matu Cham, Eastern Penan, Bah−Biau
Bontok, Central Arhâ Tboli Tondano Rikou Watut, South
Lungalunga Merei
Manide
Mele−Fila
Vurës So...a Paluan
Puyuma Roglai, Southern
Bali Madura
Sie TotoliSa
Col Sasak Capiznon Chru Banggai Subanen, Southern Okolod
Cheke Holo Kwara...ae Isinai Banda Marau
Maewo, Central
Ayta, Tayabas

Malay Ilocano
Lawunuia Sera Rade Rungus Lampung Nyo Manipa
Label Amio−Gelimi Bontok, Northern Benyadu... Malagasy, Masikoro Motu Bilba Seit−Kaitetu Gane Budibud
Torau Kalinga, Southern Adzera Batak Karo Nila Malay, Pattani Chamorro Manobo, Ata Kamaru Lemolang Ponam Kimaragang
Matbat Tontemboan Buol Brunei Lamaholot Sama, Southern TakiaGaddang Sajau Basap
Numbami Lenkau
Seberuang Wampar Inonhan
Gayo Hano Asumboa
Bajau, West Coast Kokota
Loun Aralle−Tabulahan
Fataleka Ulumanda... Inakeanon
Maiadomu Boano Kasiguranin
Badui Lihir
Malagasy, Plateau
Balau
Pangasinan Ati
Nias Osing Tomini Bikol, Miraya
Butuanon Kahua Tenis
Binukidnon, Northern
Agta, Umiray Dumaget Lovono
Ghayavi Nalögo Siraya
Sika Iaai Ibanag Kaur Batak Simalungun
Pukapuka Talaud Geser−Gorom Nauruan
Marino Fagani
Yami Saparua Teop Yamdena Muna Sio Kankanaey Kelabit Orang Seletar
Koro Aiklep
Tanema Repanbitip HahonSaisiyat Amba Iraya Malagasy, Sakalava Kwaio Cham, Western Konjo, Highland AjiëMaranao Subanen, Central Ma...anyan Maiwa
Kalumpang Akei Tarangan, East Oroha Pwaamei
Ayta, Magbukun
Waigeo Koluwawa Efate, North Bambam Manusela Malay, Central Bajau, Indonesian Alune Surigaonon Sambal Bantayanon Varisi Nengone Kowiai
Kinabalian Kisar Tanna, North Are Nusa Laut
Babar, Southeast Uneapa Itneg, Maeng Kangean Bangka Tobati Whitesands Wedau Lo−Toga
Uruangnirin
Tidong Malayic Dayak Komering Sorsoganon, Southern Amarasi Sa...a Yapese Namakura
Shark Bay Maskelynes Biem Kenyah, Mainstream Teluti Titan Tigak Kioko Malay, Kota Bangun Kutai Tugun Agta, Mt. Iraya
Palawano, Central Balangao Bantoanon Rejang Tetun Kamayo Mor Manobo, Dibabawon
Laha Tolaki
Kanakanabu Löyöp Mindiri Lolak Tonsea Mamuju Lamboya VaghuaJakun
Nyelâyu Mono Buang, Mapos Tuvaluan Wawonii
Malay, Tenggarong Kutai Ende Kosraean Ayta, Mag−Indi Murik Aputai
Seke Naha...ai Lole Bunun Lawangan Blaan, Sarangani Talise Axamb
Mortlockese Roviana Tawala Levuka Ere Aribwatsa
SowaYeretuar Larevat Tikopia Baki Pannei Bati Dengka
Mari Bikol, Libon Termanu Selayar Konjo, Coastal
Taroko Subanon, Kagayanen Bahau Ghari Manombai Tadyawan Perai Sepa Tatana
Dumpas Ughele Tombonuo
Palauan
Baelelea Vao Bikol, Northern Catanduanes
Western Tongan Bidayuh, Bukar−Sadong Niue Padoe Sarudu Busoa Tiang Tolomako
Austral Kwamera Fordata Paiwan Tajio
Bedoanas Lakalei Nemi Malaynon Palu...e Lobu, Drehu Kaili, Da...a Porohanon Kalinga, Tanudan Malimpung Baetora Saaroa
Kayan, Wahau LanasJavanese, Caribbean Kulisusu Bisaya, Brunei Patani Kala Paama Rennell−Bellona Selungai Murut
Bieria
Kota Marudu Tinagas Nêlêmwa−Nixumwak Sukurum Itneg, Binongan Subanon, Kolibugan Fwâi Kadazan, Coastal DhaoBidayuh, Bau Saliba SelaruBatui Sepa Punan Tubu Punan Batu 1
Äiwoo Bonerate Sangil Lenakel Bada
Simbo Abadi Misima−Panaeati Ile Ape Nehan Niwer Mil Sengseng Ormu Kaiep Tandia
Malay, Sabah Babar, North Ponosakan Mbula Marik Gebe Waima Manobo, Ilianen
Lelak Masela, Central Palawano, Southwest Mota Tutong Anakalangu Yogad Hote Seko Padang Marquesan, South
Minaveha Solong Aulua
Kadazan, Labuk−Kinabatangan Manobo, Western Bukidnon Benggoi Te...un
Kallahan, Tinoc Penan, EasternLote Dobel Babatana Pom Tangoa
Polonombauk Dumagat, Remontado Kalagan, Kagan Marovo Bakati..., Sara Tinputz Sudest Kayupulau
Kota Marudu TalantangPunan Aput Kenyah, Wahau Manobo, Rajah Kabunsuwan Dampelas Berawan, West
Kaimbulawa Sursurunga Caac Madak
Long Wat Marquesan, North Burusu Kele Binukidnon, Southern Dusun Malang Unua Urak Lawoi... Navut Tanapag

>1200 Languages
Ibatan Dakka
Ngad...a, Eastern Sedoa Mussau−Emira Bebeli Anus Emplawas
Lobu, Tampias Kaptiau Lavatbura−Lamusong Yuanga Futuna, East Malango Warwar Feni Konomala Punan Merah
Serili Bannoni Kayan, Rejang Itneg, Banao
Kayan Mahakam Bontok, Southern Boano Seluwasan Yabem Meramera Tagal Murut Lahanan Ronji Pwapwâ
Koro Kayan, Kayan River Kusaghe Aoheng Fagauvea Lonwolwol AneityumWauyai Magori
Bidayuh, Tringgus−Sembaan Amara Mapia
Lelepa Nukumanu SekarFutuna−Aniwa Kadazan, Klias River Lamenu Ratahan Tasmate
Negeri Sembilan Malay Arhö Watut, Middle Tobian Haveke Liabuku
Agta, Casiguran Dumagat Dawera−Daweloor Sarasira Papuma Musom
Bahonsuai Mariri
Kompane Sonsorol Nukuria Topoiyo
Vera...a Bonggi Kandas Hiw Yakaikeke Uruava
Kalinga, Mabaka Valley Roria Lorang Malua Bay
Kaninuwa Likum Gweda
Penrhyn Seru Rapa Mafea Morouas Hukumina
Wailapa Piamatsina Lemerig Hermit
Kavalan
 Taboo Blood To Suck
Fijian tabu drā sucu-ma
Tahitian tapu toto ngote
Maori tapu toto ngote
Hawaiian kapu koko omo
Marquesan tapu toto omo

Identified cognates (homologies) by looking for

Systematic Sound Correspondences
e.g. Tahitian /t/ → /k/ in Hawaiian.
 Taboo Blood To Suck
Fijian tabu drā sucu-ma
Tahitian tapu toto ngote
Maori tapu toto ngote
Hawaiian kapu koko omo
Marquesan tapu toto omo
 Taboo Blood To Suck
Fijian tabu drā sucu-ma
Tahitian tapu toto ngote
Maori tapu toto ngote
Hawaiian kapu koko omo
Marquesan tapu toto omo
 Taboo Blood To Suck
Fijian tabu drā sucu-ma
Tahitian tapu toto ngote
Maori tapu toto ngote
Hawaiian kapu koko omo
Marquesan tapu toto omo
Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database
http://abvd.shh.mpg.de

Sander Adelaar (Melbourne)
Bob Blust (Hawaii)
Erin Donnelly (Berkeley)
Bethwyn Evans (ANU)
Alex François (CNRS)
Emily Gasser (Swarthmore)
293,000 lexemes
1,525 languages
Russell Gray (MPI-SHH) Laurent Sagart (CRLAO)
John Lynch (USP) Antoinette Schapper (KITLV)
Jeff Marck (ind.) Benjamin Touati (CNRS)
Weera Ostapirat (Maidol) Mary Walworth (MPI-SHH)
Laurie Reid (Hawaii)
Malcolm Ross (ANU)
Data (round 1)
• 400 well-attested languages
– No creoles
– Know loanwords removed

• Outgroup
– Old Chinese (controversial)
– Buyang (less controversial)

• Binary Coding
– presence/absence of cognates
– 34,440 cognate sets
– 6436 parsimony informative
 Bayesian Phylogenetics
How to analyse 34k cognates from 400 languages?

Data, a Model, & a Tree

Calculate fit of tree to data | model

Permute tree, repeat x billions.

Walk through tree space (MCMC)

sampling “good” trees

Aim: estimate phylogeny while incorporating uncertainty

(topology, parameters).

è Recover a cloud of trees (“posterior”)

è Probability of the subgroupings proposed by the
data.
Posterior Tree Distribution
1. Root/Origin
2. Sequence
 5,000 or 15,000?
• We know how old some parts of the tree are:
– Archaeology – initial Austronesian settlement of Philippines (4000-4500),
Reefs/Santa Cruz (3000-3150), E. Polynesia (~1400)
– Geology – Tuvalu & Tokelau (1000-2000).
– History – Chinese sources discussing Chamic people (1800-2500)
– Documentation – Old Javanese (~1200), Favorlang (~380)

• “Calibrate” parts of the tree.

• Take observed rates of change, convert rates to dates

with calibrations, smooth observed rates of change
over to branches we don’t know.
3. Age of Proto-Austronesian
Pulse-Pause Slow Boat
3. Age of Proto-Austronesian
Pulse-Pause Slow Boat

Mean: 5,220 years (+- 279)

 Pulses & Pauses
Blust 1999, Green 2002, Pawley 2002
1. “First Long Pause” - Before Philippines (5,500-4,500BP)
• Development of proto-Malayo-Polynesian stage
• Lack of sailing technology to cross 350km Bashii channel?
• Outrigger Canoe complex (Pawley and Pawley 1994)

2. “Second Long Pause” - West Polynesia (~2800-1800BP)

• Development of pre-Polynesian society
• Better sailing techniques, Double-Hulled Canoes (Irwin 98)
• Social Strategies
 Pulses
4.3 diversification rate changes
(95% credible set 1-7)

10 branches showed significant changes

(BF > 20)

Highest Posterior Probabilities (BF):

Proto-M-P = 397, 79 & 33
pre-Polynesian = 29 & 36

Philippines? = 38
Central Philippines subgroup expanded at the expense of other
lineages between 2000 and 2500 years B.P., reducing linguistic
diversity in the region (Blust 2005)

Micronesian? = 66, 29 & 23

 Pulse-Pause vs. Slow Boat
Predictions Pulse-Pause Slow Boat

1. Root Taiwan ISEA

2. Sequence Chained Two Pronged

3. Age ~5,500BP ~13 -17,000BP

4. Pattern Pulse/Pause ?
Round #2 Oceania
(2017)

Heavily revised, double checked data

Massively scaled up: Oceanic

~700 Languages, 27000 cognates
 Breakup of Oceanic

“swift initial spread of an almost undifferentiated Oceanic language across Island

Melanesia, reaching Western Polynesian without any pauses.”

“Such pauses would be indicated by the existence of a hierarchy of well-defined

high-order subgroups in Remote Oceania.
…
No such hierarchy exists.”
- Pawley (2011, p.825)
 1 SHWNG

Results 1
SE Solomonic

St Matthias

0.67
1. Major subfamilies are strongly supported 0.98 0.99 Temotu
0.9
0.4

1 Admiralties

0.59
1 North New Guinea
1

1 Papuan Tip

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-Melanesian

1
Loyalty Islands
1

1 New Caledonia
0.47

1
South Vanuatu
1

1
0.88 NC Vanuatu

1 Micronesian

0.88
1
Central Pacific

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

 1 SHWNG

Results 1
SE Solomonic

St Matthias

0.67
1. Major subfamilies are strongly supported 0.98 0.99 Temotu
0.9
2. Micronesian and Polynesian strongly form 0.4

1 Admiralties
a group (p=0.88)
0.59
1 North New Guinea
1

1 Papuan Tip

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-Melanesian

1
Loyalty Islands
1

1 New Caledonia
0.47

1
South Vanuatu
1

1
0.88 NC Vanuatu

1 Micronesian

0.88
1
Central Pacific

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

 1 SHWNG

Results 1
SE Solomonic

St Matthias

0.67
1. Major subfamilies are strongly supported 0.98 0.99 Temotu
0.9
2. Micronesian and Polynesian strongly form 0.4

1 Admiralties
a group (p=0.88)
3. Southern Oceanic linkage (Loyalties, New 0.59
1 North New Guinea

Caledonia, Vanuatu) is weakly supported 1

(p=0.47) 1 Papuan Tip

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-Melanesian

1
Loyalty Islands
1

1 New Caledonia
0.47

1
South Vanuatu
1

1
0.88 NC Vanuatu

1 Micronesian

0.88
1
Central Pacific

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

 1 SHWNG

Results 1
SE Solomonic

St Matthias

0.67
1. Major subfamilies are strongly supported 0.98 0.99 Temotu
0.9
2. Micronesian and Polynesian strongly form 0.4

1 Admiralties
a group (p=0.88)
3. Southern Oceanic linkage (Loyalties, New 0.59
1 North New Guinea

Caledonia, Vanuatu) is weakly supported 1

(p=0.47) 1 Papuan Tip

1 0.99

4. Western Oceanic linkage (p=0.99) 0.96 Meso-Melanesian

1
Loyalty Islands
1

1 New Caledonia
0.47

1
South Vanuatu
1

1
0.88 NC Vanuatu

1 Micronesian

0.88
1
Central Pacific

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

 1 SHWNG

Results 1
SE Solomonic

St Matthias

0.67
1. Major subfamilies are strongly supported 0.98 0.99 Temotu
0.9
2. Micronesian and Polynesian strongly form 0.4

1 Admiralties
a group (p=0.88)
3. Southern Oceanic linkage (Loyalties, New 0.59
1 North New Guinea

Caledonia, Vanuatu) is weakly supported 1

(p=0.47) 1 Papuan Tip

1 0.99

4. Western Oceanic linkage (p=0.99) 0.96 Meso-Melanesian

1
Loyalty Islands
1

Rapid population expansions leave little 1 New Caledonia

evidence 0.47

1
South Vanuatu
-> Need lots of data and powerful methods to 1

find the signal. 0.88

1
NC Vanuatu

1 Micronesian

0.88
1
Central Pacific

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

 1. Remote Oceanic “leapfrog”
20

1 SHWN

1
SE So

St Ma
10

0.67
0.98 0.99 Temo
0.9
0.4

1 Admir

0.59
1 North
1
0

1 Papua

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-

1
Loyalt
1

1
−10

New C
0.47

1
South
1

1
0.88 NC Va

1 Micron
−20

0.88
1
Centra

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

120 140 160 180

 2. Western Oceanic Expansion
20

1 SHWN

1
SE So

St Ma
10

0.67
0.98 0.99 Temo
0.9
0.4

1 Admir

0.59
1 North
1
0

1 Papua

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-

1
Loyalt
1

1
−10

New C
0.47

1
South
1

1
0.88 NC Va

1 Micron
−20

0.88
1
Centra

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

120 140 160 180

 3. S.E. Solomons
20

1 SHWN

1
SE So

St Ma
10

0.67
0.98 0.99 Temo
0.9
0.4

1 Admir

0.59
1 North
1
0

1 Papua

1 0.99

0.96 Meso-

1
Loyalt
1

1
−10

New C
0.47

1
South
1

1
0.88 NC Va

1 Micron
−20

0.88
1
Centra

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

120 140 160 180

 Conclusions
• Prehistory in the Pacific:
– Pulses and Pauses

• Language Phylogenies:
– Powerful way to test hypotheses about human
prehistory
– Computational methods combined with quality
linguistic work can extract more signal than either
alone
– Quantify signal and handle a range of linkages and
complex linguistic situations

• Next steps: Phylogeographically model

expansion, full family.
Perfect Data 40
30
CentralPacific
20
10
0
15
Real Data 10
5
EPolynesian
0
60
40
Random Data 20
MesoMelanesian
0
20
15
10 Micronesian Category
5

density
Randomised
0
25 Real
20
15 Simulated
10 NNewGuinea
5
0
30
20 NVanuatu
10
0
25
20
15
10 PapuanTip
5
0

40
20
SESolomonic
0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Value