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CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Rainfall is the climatic factor of greatest economic and social significance in

Africa and Kenya in particular. It is the most critical and key variable both in

atmospheric and hydrological cycle. The economies of East African countries

heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture. In Nigeria, there are large scale farmers

growing wheat, maize and dairy farming. Interactions between the various

components of the climate system such as the oceans, land and atmosphere have

brought about climate change. This is characterized by rainfall variabilities which

brings with it negative impacts to the countries’ economies. This has necessitated

efforts to understand the coherent multi decadal fluctuation in the global climate

change and make predictions of rainfall extremes. Methods of prediction of

rainfall extremes have often been based on studies of physical effects of rainfall

or on statistical studies of rainfall time series. Because rainfall occurs based on a

specific time and there is a correlation between the previous data and subsequent

ones, the best method for analysing rainfall data is using time series. This is

proven by Nail and Momani (2009) who revealed that a researcher with data for

a past period can use Univariate Box-Jenkins method to forecast values without

having to search for other related time series data.

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The annual cycle of the climatology of the rainfall over tropical Africa and in

particular over Nigeria, is strongly determined by the position of the Inter Tropic

Convergence Zone (ITCZ) (Onyenechere, 2010). Variations in rainfall pattern

throughout the country are the result of differences in elevation and seasonal

changes in the atmospheric pressure systems that control the prevailing winds.

The climate of Nigeria is characterized by high rainfall variation (Yilma et al.,

2013). In Nigeria, several regions receive rainfall throughout the year, but in some

regions rainfall is seasonal and low making irrigation necessary (Alemeraw and

Eshetu, 2009). Rainfall is the most critical and key variable both in atmospheric

and hydrological cycle. Rainfall patterns usually have spatial and temporal

variability. This variability affects agricultural production, water supply,

transportation, environment and urban planning, thus, the entire economy of a

country, and the existence of its people. Rainfall variability is assumed to be the

main cause for the frequently occurring climate extreme events such as drought

and flood. These natural phenomena affect badly the agricultural production and

hence the economy of the nation. In regions where the year-to-year variability is

high, people often suffer great calamities due to floods or droughts. Even though

damage due to extremes of rainfall cannot be avoided completely, a forewarning

could certainly be useful (Nicholls, 2010). Nigeria is one of the countries whose

economy is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and also facing recurring

cycles of flood and drought. Current climate variability is already imposing a

significant challenge to Nigeria in general and Enugu in particular, by affecting

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food security, water and energy supply, poverty reduction and sustainable

development efforts, as well as by causing natural resource degradation and

natural disasters. Recurrent floods in the past caused substantial human life and

property loss in many parts of the country.

Methods of prediction of rainfall extreme events have often been based on studies

of physical effects of rainfall or on statistical studies of rainfall time series.

Rainfall forecast is relevance to the agriculture sector, since it contributes

significantly to the economy of countries like Nigeria. In order to model and

predict hydrologic events, one can use stochastic methods like time series

methods. Numerous attempts have been made to predict behavioral pattern of

rainfall using various techniques (Azuwike and Enwereuzor, 2011). Awareness

about the characteristics of the rainfall over an area such as the source, quantity,

variability, distribution and the frequency of rainfall is essential for the

implication in utilization and associated problems. Assessing rainfall variability

is practically useful in making decision, risk management and optimum usage of

water resources of countries. Thus, it is important to obtain accurate rainfall

forecast at various geographic levels of Nigeria and work towards identifying

periodicities in order to help policy makers improve their decisions by taking into

consideration the available and future water resources. In this study, univariate

Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model are used for assessing the

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rainfall pattern in Enugu State based on data from Nigerian Meteorological

Agency.

1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Weather and climate over the earth are not constant with time: they change on

different time series ranging from the geological to the diurnal through annual,

the difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what

condition of the atmosphere over a short period of time and climate is how the

atmosphere behaves over relatively long period of time. Seasonal and intra-

seasonal time scales. Such variability is an inherent characteristic of the climate.

The study of climatic fluctuations involves description and investigation of causes

and effects of these fluctuations in the past and their statistical interpretation.

Much of the work done is about variability of the two important meteorological

parameters: rainfall and temperature. Rainfall is a term used to refer to water

falling in drops after condensation of the atmospheric vapor. Also rainfall is the

resultant product of a series of complex interactions taking place within the earth-

atmosphere system. Rainfall is only water that falls from the sky, whereas

precipitation is any wet things that fall from the sky, which include snow, frozen

rain etc. Water in all its forms and in all its various activities plays a crucial role

in sustaining both the climate and life. It is also a major factor for planning and

management of water resource project and agricultural production. Even though

Nigeria enjoys a fairly good amount of rainfall, wide variability in its distribution

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with respect to space and time are responsible for the two extremes events (floods

and droughts) (Yilma et. al, 2013).

1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The main aim of this study is to analyze rainfall pattern in Ishiagu, Ivo Local

Government Area of Ebonyi State using appropriate time series methods based

on five years (2009-2018) data recorded at the weather station of Federal College

of Agriculture Ishiagu.

Specific Objectives

1. To fit appropriate time series model to the monthly rainfall data.

2. To forecast the rainfall pattern in the study area for the year 2019.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1. What appropriate time series model fit the monthly rainfall data in Ishiagu?

2. What is the forecast of rainfall pattern in Ishiagu?

1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The need to discover the perfect tool that can effectively analyse the pattern of

rainfall in a particular geographical area is an issue that affects the nation at large

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but for the sake of being specific and to allow for a closer observation this research

work was to cover only Ishiagu metropolis (2009-2018).

1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Knowledge of what happens to the water that reaches the earth surface will assist

the study of many surface and subsurface water problems, for efficient control

and management of water resources. For a country like Nigeria, whose welfare

depends very much on rain-fed agriculture, a quantitative knowledge of water

requirements of the region, availability of water for plant growth and

supplemental irrigation, etc. on a monthly or seasonal basis is an essential

requirement for agricultural development. In this regard, increased capacity to

manage future climate change and weather extremes can also reduce the

magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, lead to better

resistance. Assessing seasonal rainfall characteristics based on past records is

essential to evaluate rainfall extreme risk and to contribute to development of

mitigation strategies. Therefore, a reliable rainfall forecasting and assessing

behavior at station, regional and national levels is very important.

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CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

Several literatures on climate change and its attendant effect abound, as climate

change and weather fluctuations have greatly taken top in the priorities of global

environmental discuss. (Dikko et al., 2013) argues that the effect of rainfall to

man is diverse ranging from designs of agricultural systems to erosion control.

The authors used the Gamma distribution to model the distribution of the quarterly

rainfall amount. They also employed the Kolmogorov – Smirnov, One Sample

test to evaluate the model fit. The Gamma distribution according to the authors

adequately fitted the quarterly rainfall data producing a suitable model base on

the Kolmogorov – Smirnov One Sample test. (Okonkwo & Mbajiorgu, 2010)

analyzed rainfall data and characteristics for locations in seven states of

Southeastern Nigeria. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were

developed for the locations using two Graphical and Statistical methods.

According to (Okonkwo & Mbajiorgu, 2010), the locations were Onitsha in

Anambra State, Enugu in Enugu State, Abakiliki in Ebonyi State, Umuahia in

Abia State, Owerri in Imo State, Port Harcourt in Rivers State and Uyo in

AkwaIbom State. They employed the generalized accumulated rainfall patterns

developed by United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Soil

Conservation Service and matched it with rainfall data for the locations of study.

Their results show that the advanced pattern had the best fit with the observed

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characteristics and was used to break down recorded daily totals into shorter

duration rainfall data. (Obasi & Ikubuwaje, 2012) conducted an analytical study

of rainfall and temperature trends in some catchment States of Nigeria using the

Benin - Owena River Basin as case study. The study covers Climatic data for

rainfall and temperature for 35years. Their study employed the Cumulative

Summation (CU-SUM) and the rank-sum tests. Their trend analysis shows that as

temperature increases there is a corresponding increase in rainfall. The trend also

indicates that no significant departure of these climatic parameters occurred. Their

least square regression (r2) and the trend show that the temperature variation

ranges from 0.4% in Delta to 3.5% in Edo, an indication that the temperature

conditions in states understudy are not uniform even though the trend shows an

increase. The rainfall least square regression variation ranges between 0.2% in

Zaria and 2.7% in Plateau states, implying that the rainfall is varying in an upward

trend. (Odoemene, 2011) interrogated issues of interest in the concrete

experiences of Niger Delta communities in Nigeria in relation to environmental

change. The paper highlights the transition of the delta to its present state and

explores the social consequences of this downturn in delta communities.

(Odoemene, 2011) argues that while the destruction of traditional means of

livelihood has forced Niger Delta peoples into an environment-related poverty,

deteriorating living conditions, and massive underdevelopment, environmental

change in the area has led to new patterns of adaptation and survival.

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(Ekpoh & Nsa, 2011) examined some aspects of the climate of north-western

Nigeria, focusing more on rainfall, its inter- and intra-annual variability and

patterns of distribution. (Ekpoh & Nsa, 2011) adopted some statistical tools

commonly used to describe climatic conditions. These tools include: the mean,

the standard deviation and the coefficient of variability, the climate of north-

western Nigeria was analyzed for possible shifts in mean conditions and patterns.

Their study found that climatic conditions in north-western Nigeria have altered

substantially as four drought episodes took place within the last three decades of

the 20th Century and, the 1984 drought-year rainfall was 58.8 percent lower than

the long-term mean rainfall. The study further showed that the 1968 to 2008 mean

rainfall shifted downwards by 8.8 percent from the long-term mean, although it

cannot be said if the shift is permanent or temporary since recent rainfall trends

tend to suggest a recovery. Possible options for stabilizing the regional climate

are suggested. (Ologunorisa & Tersoo, 2016) conducted analysis of recent

changes in the characteristics of extreme rainfall and their implication on flood

frequency in Makurdi. They employed data on extreme daily rainfall,

evapotranspiration and flood occurrences. They analyzed the annual rainfall for

trends using spearman rank correlation coefficient and annual rainfall variability

using standardized rainfall anomaly index while recurrence intervals were

analyzed using Gumbell Extreme probability theory. Their results show among

other things that there was a remarkable continuous downward trend in annual

rainfall amounts; that the period between 1996 and 2001 witnessed the highest

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frequencies of extreme rainfall events and flood frequencies; that major floods

were associated with high recurrence intervals, and that the seasonality of

flooding in Makurdi occurs between May and October annually. (Azuwike &

Enwereuzor, 2011) examined the effect of rainfall variability on water supply in

Ikeduru L.G.A of Imo State. Data collected were analyzed using regression

analysis and analysis of variance. Their result shows that there is a strong

relationship between rural water supply in the study area and the rainfall; and that

there is a significant difference in the sourcing of water supply among

communities. They further stated that at the onset of the rainy season, most of the

water sources in Ikeduru L.G.A. are not reliable. Rainfall change points were

detected to be 1991 and 1997. Reduction in rainfall amount as revealed by trends

and variability patterns, adversely affects rural water supply. (Adejuwon, 2011)

examined rainfall seasonality in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, using both

monthly and annual rainfall data from 1931 to 1997. The data was collected on 9

synoptic stations in the region. The cumulative index analysis and the percentage

of mean were employed for in study. The result indicated a wet season with over

95% of the total annual rainfall in the area. It also showed a long wet season from

February/March to November and a short dry season from December to

January/February. Their study also observed a northward increase in rainfall in

part of the eastern side of the Niger Delta. They noted that variation of rainfall in

the locality could probably be as a result of rainfall determinant factors different

from the inter-tropical discontinuity. (Abaje et al., 2012) examined fluctuations

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and trends in the rainfall regime of the Sudano Sahelian Ecological Zone of

Nigeria so as to discuss the risks and opportunities involve. They employed

Rainfall data for eight meteorological stations were used for this analysis. They

sub-divided the rainfall series into 30-year overlapping sub-periods (1949-1978,

1959-1988, 1969-1998 and 1979-2008) and used the Cramer’s (tk) test to

compare the means of the sub-periods with that of the whole record period. Their

results revealed that there was a change towards wetter conditions in the last 30-

year period. According to the authors, the result of the linear trend lines shows

an increase in rainfall supply over the period of study. (Ogboet al., 2013) studied

risk management and challenges of climate change in Nigeria, they reviewed the

incidence and consequences of climatic change and the vulnerability of Nigeria

to climate change they adopted the survey research technique. Their findings

show that deforestation, industrial releases, improper disposal of sewage are

human activities responsible for climate change. Furthermore, the authors found

out that drought, erosion and flooding constitute the challenges resulting from

climate change, and finally that government agencies in charge of environmental

issues do not really help to reduce the risk of climate change in Nigeria. (Ogboet

al., 2013) concluded that gas flaring, over grazing, bush burning, CO2 are factors

responsible for climate change in Nigeria. The authors recommended that,

Nigerian Government should provide solutions to manage development of

biotechnology, afforestation programme, integrated climate risk management and

technology that can capture at least 80% of carbon emitted by industries.

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2.1 RAINFALL CHARACTERISTICS

Rainfall varies with latitude, elevation, topography, seasons, distance from the

sea, and coastal Sea-surface temperature. Nigeria enjoys the humid tropical

climate type. Because of its location just north of the equator, also, Nigeria enjoys

a truly tropical climate characterized by the hot and wet conditions associated with

the movement of the inter-Tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) north and south of

the equator.

While there is a general decrease in rainfall in Nigeria, the coastal area is

experiencing slight increase. Apart from the general southward shift in rainfall

patterns, the duration has also reduced from 50-360 (1993-2003) to 30-280 (2003-

2013) rainy days per year. This has created ecological destabilization and altered

the pattern of the vegetation belt especially in the northern part of the country.

The rainfall pattern has also enhanced wind erosion and desertification, soil

erosion and coastal flooding in the north, east and coastal areas of Nigeria

respectively.

The country experiences consistently high temperatures all year round. Since

temperature varies only slightly, rainfall distribution, over space and time,

becomes the single most important factor in differentiating the seasons and

climatic distribution are however dependent on the two air masses that prevail

over the country. Their influences are directly linked to the movement of the

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ITCZ, north and south of the equator. The two air masses are the Tropical

maritime(Tm) and the Tropical continental (Tc). The former is associated with

the moisture-laden south-west winds (south westerlies) which blow from the

Atlantic Ocean, while the latter is associated with the dry and dusty north-east

winds (easterlies) which blow from the Sahara Desert.

Conversely, with the movement of the ITCZ into the Northern Hemisphere, the

rain-bearing south westerlies prevail as far inland as possible to bring rain fall

during the wet season. The implication is that there is a prolonged rainy season in

the far south, while the far north undergoes long dry periods annually. Nigeria,

therefore, has two major seasons, the lengths of which vary from north to south.

The mean annual rainfall along the coast in the south-east is 4000mm while it is

500mm in the north-east.

Nigeria can, thus be broadly divided into the following climatic regions:

1. the humid sub-equatorial, in the southern lowlands

2. the hot tropical continental, in the far north

3. the moderated sub-temperate in the high plateaus and mountains

4. the hot, wet tropical, in the hinterland (the middle-belt )

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2.2 THE MAIN EFFECTS OF RAINFALL

Trends in rainfall extremes have enormous implications. Extreme rainfall events

cause significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure. They also

cause disruption to human activities, injury, and loss of life. Socioeconomic

activities including agriculture, power generating, water supply, human health,

etc. are also very sensitive to climate variations. As a result, Nigeria economy is

heavily dependent on rainfall for generating employment, income, and foreign

currency. Thus, rainfall is considered as the most important climatic element that

influences Nigeria agriculture. The severity and frequency of occurrence of

rainfall extremes events (meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural) vary for

different parts of the country.

Drought: Drought is an insidious hazard of nature. It is often referred to as a

“creeping phenomenon” and its impacts vary from region to region. Drought can

therefore be difficult for people to understand; it is equally difficult to define,

because what may be considered a drought in, say, Bali (six days without rain)

would certainly not be considered a drought in Libya (annual rainfall less than

180 mm) (Iteet al., 2013). Some drought years have coincided with EN events,

while others have followed it. According to Nigerian Meteorological Agency

(2011) the trend of decreasing annual rainfall and increased rainfall variability is

contributing to drought conditions in Nigeria Administration. The average annual

rainfall patterns of Abuja for the periods 1999 to 2008 and 1984 to 1991 show

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two important trends. First, annual average rainfall has declined from the mean

value by about 8.5% and 10% respectively. Secondly, the variability of rainfall

shows an overall increasing trend, suggesting greater rainfall unreliability. These

rainfall patterns have led to serious drought/flood episodes throughout the

Administration.

Flood: Floods are known as the most frequent and devastating natural disasters

in both developed and developing countries (Oyeka, 2006). Between 2000 and

2008 East Africa has experienced many episodes of flooding. Almost all of these

flood episodes have significantly affected large parts of Nigeria. Nigeria’s

topography characteristics has made the country pretty vulnerable to floods and

resulting destruction and damage to life, economic, livelihoods, infrastructure,

services and health system. Flooding is common in Nigeria during the rainy

season between June and September and the major type of flooding which the

country is experiencing are flash flood and river floods (Ogboet al., 2013).

Like other regions of Nigeria, the issue of flood continues to be of growing

concern in Enugu especially to peoples residing in lowlands, along or near the

flood courses as well as village located at the foot of hills and mountains. Flood

disasters are occurring more frequently, and having an ever more dramatic impact

on Enugu in terms of the costs on lives, livelihoods and environmental resources.

The topography of Enugu Administration mainly consists of mountains and hills

with steep slope, valleys, and river basins. The catchment characteristics

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accompanied with its large area coverage coupled with torrential rain fall during

the short and long rainy season had been the main factors that contribute to the

pervious flood events.

Soil Erosion: when soil moves from one location to another, it is referred to as

soil erosion. The impact of rainfall striking the surface can cause soil erosion;

erosion is a concern for farmers as their valuable, nutrient rich top soil can be

washed away from rainfall. It can also weaken structures such as bridges or wash

out roads. Vegetation can decrease the amount of soil that is eroded during a rain.

Erosion has been going on and has produced river valleys and shaped hills and

mountains. Such erosion is generally slow but can cause a rapid increase in the

rate at which soil is eroded (i.e. a rate faster than natural weathering of bedrock

can produce new soil). This has resulted in a loss of productive soil from crop and

grazing land, as well as layers of infertile soil being deposited on formerly fertile

crop lands: the formation of gullies: silting of lakes and streams, and land slips

(Oyeka, 2016).

2.3 CLIMATE AND VEGETATION OF ISHIAGU

Ishiagu has two main seasons – a dry season that run from November to March

and a rainy season from April to October. According to (Ofomata, 2012), Ishiagu

has annual precipitation of about 1925mm which is relatively high. He also

estimates the average temperature to be about 27°C.

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As part of the sub-savannah, the common vegetation are tall grasses and small

trees. Crops commonly cultivated at Ishiagu include rice, cassava, yams and

vegetables like pumpkin and spinach.

2.4 GEOLOGIC SETTING

The study area is underlain by two rock formations as indicated in the geologic

map of the study area. The oldest is Abakaliki Formation which comprises two

mappable units of shales and sandstones. The shale unit was referred to as Ivo

Shale by (Ezepue, 2014) and consists of clay, siltstones and dark grey calcareous

shales while the sandstone unit consists of fine to medium grained calcareous

sandstone. The two units dip between 15° to 22° to the northwest, and 20P 0P-

30P 0Pto the southeast. The Abakaliki Formation is unconformably overlain by a

sandstone member of the Ezeaku Formation. This sandstone member of Ezeaku

Formation was dated Turonian by (McConnell, 2009). It grades from siltstone to

fine–medium grained sandstone with dips ranging from 18° to 38° to the southeast

direction. (Ezepue, 2014) described a set of fractures running NW to SW in the

area. According to him, these fractures run reversely to the fold axis and may have

been due to the tectonic activities that folded the rocks.

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CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

The data for this research was mainly secondary data obtained from the weather

station of Federal College of Agriculture Ishiagu. The secondary data collected

contains the records of rainfall pattern in Ishiagu over a period of ten years from

2009 to 2018.

3.2 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS

The method of data analysis adopted in this work was time series. Time series

analysis was seen as the most suitable analysis tool for such data as the ones

gathered for this research. A time series is a collection of observations of well-

defined data items obtained through repeated measurements over time. For

example, measuring the value of retail sales such as monthly, yearly or quarterly

comprise of time series (Anude, 2018). This is because sales revenue is well

defined, and consistently measured at equally spaced intervals. Data collected

irregularly or only once are not time series.

An observed time series can be decomposed into three components: the trend

(long term direction), the seasonal (systematic, calendar related movements) and

the irregular (unsystematic, short term fluctuations).

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3.3 THE COMPONENTS OF TIME SERIES

The factors that are responsible for bringing about changes in a time series are

called the components of time series. They are as follows:

 Secular Trends (or General Trends)

 Seasonal Movements

 Cyclical Movements

 Irregular Fluctuations

Secular Trends

The secular trend is the main component of a time series which results from long

term effects of socio-economic and political factors. This trend may show the

growth or decline in a time series over a long period. This is the type of tendency

which continues to persist for a very long period. Prices and export and import

data, for example, reflect obviously increasing tendencies over time.

Seasonal Trends

These are short term movements occurring in data due to seasonal factors. The

short term is generally considered as a period in which changes occur in a time

series with variations in weather or festivities. For example, it is commonly

observed that the consumption of ice-cream during summer is generally high and

hence, an ice-cream dealer's sales would be higher in some months of the year

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while relatively lower during winter months. Employment, output, exports, etc.,

are subject to change due to variations in weather. Similarly, the sale of garments,

umbrellas, greeting cards and fire-works are subject to large variations during

festivals like Valentine’s Day, Eid, Christmas, New Year's, etc. These types of

variations in a time series are isolated only when the series is provided biannually,

quarterly or monthly.

Cyclic Movements

These are long term oscillations occurring in a time series. These oscillations are

mostly observed in economics data and the periods of such oscillations are

generally extended from five to twelve years or more. These oscillations are

associated with the well-known business cycles. These cyclic movements can be

studied provided a long series of measurements, free from irregular fluctuations,

is available.

Irregular Fluctuations

These are sudden changes occurring in a time series which are unlikely to be

repeated. They are components of a time series which cannot be explained by

trends, seasonal or cyclic movements. These variations are sometimes called

residual or random components. These variations, though accidental in nature, can

cause a continual change in the trends, seasonal and cyclical oscillations during

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the forthcoming period. Floods, fires, earthquakes, revolutions, epidemics, strikes

etc., are the root causes of such irregularities.

3.4 Data Analysis

Additive time series model was used to analyse the data. The additive model used

in this work is given as follows;

Yt = Tt + St + Ct + It……………………(3.4.1)

Yt will be obtained using OLS (Ordinary Least Square) given by

Yt = α + βt + ei………………………….(3.4.2)

Where

Tt = Trend

T = Time

α = Intercept

β = Coefficient of time

ei = error

Seasonal index

𝑌𝑡 𝑌𝑡
SV = = ……………………………(3.4.3)
𝑇𝑡 𝑀𝐴

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𝑛
AdjSi = X S.i………………………...(3.4.4)
Ʃ𝑆𝑖

𝑌𝑡
=
𝑆.𝑖

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CHAPTER FOUR

DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter covers the presentation of data as well as its analysis. The data

obtained for the study was mainly through secondary data from the Federal

college of Agriculture Agro-Meteorological station which were designed to assess

the impact of rainfall pattern in Ivo LGA (Case study of Ishiagu), Ebonyi state.

The table below shows the rainfall pattern distribution in Ishiagu, Ivo LGA of

Ebonyi state from the year 2009 – 2018 in degrees.

Table 4.1 Rainfall distribution from 2009-2018

Year Quarters
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009 174.4 484.5 869.2 323.5
2010 74 911.8 641.9 329.2
2011 138.6 588.6 701.4 316.8
2012 91.8 627.6 938.8 274.1
2013 195 626 672.4 443.7
2014 171.5 486.8 952.3 192.8
2015 185.6 711.0 928.2 236.4
2016 94.1 445.6 938.4 117.8
2017 20.2 470.9 798.3 111.8
2018 63.3 456.8 780.9 123.8
Source: Field Survey, 2019

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600
400
200
0

1960m1 1961m1 1962m1 1963m1 1964m1 1965m1


time

y y
trend

Figure 1: Graph of annual rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009-2018

Figure 1 shows that there is sharp upwards and downwards movement of the

rainfall, that is to say that it is stationary. There also exist positive movement.

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4.2 Trend of annual rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009 – 2018

Table 4.2 Trend of rainfall in Ishiagu for the year 2009 – 2018

Year Yt t tYt t2 T
2009 Q1 174.4 -20 -3488 400 442.708
Q2 484.5 -19 -9205.5 361 443.960
Q3 869.2 -18 -15,645.6 324 445.213
Q4 323.5 -17 -5499.5 289 446.465
2010 Q1 74 -16 -1184 256 447.718
Q2 911.8 -15 -13677 225 448.971
Q3 641.9 -14 -8986.6 196 450.223
Q4 329.2 -13 -4279.6 169 451.476
2011 Q1 138.6 -12 -1663.2 144 452.728
Q2 588.6 -11 6474.6 121 453.981
Q3 701.4 -10 -7014.0 100 455.234
Q4 316.8 -9 -2851.2 81 456.486
2012 Q1 91.8 -8 -734.4 64 457.739
Q2 627.6 -7 -4603.2 49 458.991
Q3 938.8 -6 -5632.8 36 460.244
Q4 274.1 -5 -1370.5 25 461.497
2013 Q1 195 -4 -780 16 462.749
Q2 625 -3 -1878 9 464.002
Q3 672.4 -2 -1344.8 4 465.254
Q4 443.7 -1 -443.7 1 466.507
2014 Q1 171.5 0 0 0 467.760
Q2 486.8 1 486.8 1 469.760
Q3 952.3 2 1904.6 4 470.265
Q4 192.3 3 576.9 9 471.517
2015 Q1 185.6 4 742.4 16 472.77
Q2 711.0 5 3555 25 474.023
Q3 928.2 6 5569.2 36 475.275
Q4 236.4 7 1654.8 49 476.528
2016 Q1 94.1 8 752.8 64 477.780
Q2 445.6 9 4010.4 81 479.033
Q3 938.4 10 9384 100 480.286
Q4 117.8 11 1295.8 121 481.538
2017 Q1 20.2 12 242.4 144 482.791
Q2 470.9 13 6121.7 169 484.043
Q3 789.3 14 11176.2 196 485.296
Q4 111.8 15 1677 225 486.549
2018 Q1 63.3 16 1012.8 256 487.801
Q2 456.8 17 7765.6 289 489.054
Q3 780.9 18 14056.2 324 490.306
Q4 123.8 19 2352.2 361 491.559
Source: Field survey, 2019
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The analysis on table 4.2 shows the trend values of the rainfall pattern in Ishiagu

over the period of ten years as from 2009 to 2018 on quarterly basis.

The formula adopted for the calculation of trend Tt is given below;

Tt = α + βt …………………………………. (4.2.1)

Where

𝑛∑𝑡𝑦𝑡 − ∑𝑡∑𝑦𝑡
βt = ..............................................(4.2.2)
𝑛∑𝑡 2 − [∑𝑡]2

Chart Title
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Yt T

Fig 2. Graph of Yt against Tt

26
4.3 SEASONAL VARIATION

The formula for calculating the seasonal variation is given below;

Yt
Seasonal Variation = ……………………..(4.3.1)
Ẏt

Table 4.3 Seasonal variation of rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009 – 2018

Quarter 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 X Median
Q1 0.3939 0.1653 0.3061 0.2006 0.4214 0.3666 0.3926 0.1970 0.0418 0.1298 0.2615 0.2838
Q2 1.0913 2.0309 1.2965 1.3673 1.3470 1.0379 1.4999 0.9302 0.9728 0.9340 1.2508 1.1711
Q3 1.9523 1.4257 1.5407 2.0398 1.4452 2.0250 1.9530 1.9538 1.6450 1.5927 1.7573 1.7012
Q4 0.7246 0.7292 0.6940 0.5939 0.9511 0.4078 0.4961 0.2446 0.2298 0.2519 0.5323 0.6132
Source: Field survey, 2019

The analysis on table 4.3 contains the seasonal variation of rainfall in Ishiagu.

From the table we can deduce that;

∑ SV= 11.9997

12 12
K= = = 1.1264
∑SV 10.6532

S.I = k x SI (ẍ)

Table 4.4Sum of Seasonal variation of rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009 – 2018

Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
S.I 0.9002 0.8975 0.8954 0.8832
Source: Field Survey, 2019

27
Mean
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mean

Fig 3: Graph of seasonal variation of rainfall in Ishiagu

The figure above shows that there is upwards and downwards movement of the

seasonal index, that is to say that the seasons of rainfall in Ishiagu is stationary.

28
4.4 Cyclical – irregular variation of rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009 – 2018

To analyze the cyclical-irregular variation of rainfall in Ishiagu we adopted the

formula below;

Ct + It = 𝑌𝑡 − (Ŷt + St) ……………………………………… (4.4.1)

Table 4.5 Cyclical-irregular variation of rainfall in Ishiagu from 2009-2018

Quarter 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 X
Q1 -269.2082 -374.6182 -315.0282 -366.8392 -268.6492 -297.1602 -288.0702 -384.5802 -463.4912 -425.4012 -345.3046

Q2 39.6425 461.9315 133.7215 167.7112 160.1005 16.8905 236.8795 -34.3305 -14.0405 -33.2415 113.5265
Q3 423.0916 190.7816 245.2706 477.6606 206.2506 481.1396 452.0296 457.2186 312.1086 289.6986 353.525
Q4 -123.8482 -123.1592 -140.5692 -188.2802 -23.6902 -280.1002 -241.0112 -364.6212 -375.6322 -368.6422 -186.4933

Source: Field survey, 2019

The analysis on table 4.5 contains the cyclical-irregular variations of rainfall in

Ishiagu from 2009 – 2018 on quarterly basis (Q1-Q4). looking at the data, it was

observed that although there exist variations for the individual months in each

year yet the mean of cyclical-irregular variation for all the months were the same

(0.8878) except for January (0.8889) February and March (0.887) and December

(0) respectively.

29
Chart Title
600

400

200

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-200

-400

-600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Figure 4: Cyclical-irregular variation of rainfall in Ishiagu

Forecasting: α + β = trend………………………….. (4.4.2)

Table 4.6: Forecasting of the trend of rainfall for 2019

Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Trend 438.9499 436.4447 435.1921 433.9395
Source: Field Survey, 2018

Table 4.7: Forecasting of the quantity of rainfall for each month in 2019

Quarter Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Qty 440.1 438.3 437.0 435.8
Source: Field Survey, 2018

30
CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1 SUMMARY

This present study has enabled us to understand the temporal variations in daily,

annual, monthly and seasonal rainfall amounts over Ishiagu area. The driest and

the wettest year and month in Ishiagu area for the period of study has been

identified and the sequence documented for future reference on the probability of

droughts and floods. The study revealed a significantly high value of mean annual

rainfall over the months of April to September Annually.

5.2 CONCLUSIONS

The rainfall for the study area showed an increasing annual trend with average

monthly values in bimodal mode and a double peak in May and September.

Because of the popular August break which occurs mostly in the southern part of

the country, there is a depression or low rainfall during the period. Temperature

follows the same pattern as rain with a sinusoidal movement from January to

December annually, while the relative humidity is highest between June-

September.

The analysis on table 4.5 of the study revealed that although there exist variations

for the individual months in each year yet the mean of cyclical-irregular variation

31
for all the months were the same (0.8878) except for January (0.8889) February

and March (0.887) and December (0) respectively.

5.3 RECOMMENDATION

Timely observations and forecasts of rainfall onset, duration (length of rainy

season) and cessation are useful in addressing the persistent problem of dwindling

water resources. This paper, therefore recommend an integrated water-resources

management as well as sustainable agriculture especially during the ‘little dry

season’ in Ishiagu.

32
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