PROBLEM ANALYSIS (PA)

A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH

Decision Making & Negotiation

SBM ITB
 People and Problems

• People like to solve problems and will seek

them out if four conditions are met:
– they posses the skills need to solve the
problem
– they experience success in using those skills
– they are rewarded for being successful
– they do not fear failure
 Problem Analysis
• Problem Analysis (PA) provides the skills
needed to explain any situation in which an
expected level of performance is not being
achieved and in which the cause of the
unacceptable performance is unknown.
 PA Continued
• We are concerned with the way in which
information is used to approach deviation in
performance.

• Decision making based on FACTS and DATA!

 Problems Not Solved
• We’ve all experienced the “solved” problem that
isn’t really solved.
• Problem Analysis is a systematic problem-solving
process that also makes the best use of
experience and knowledge
• Objectivity about a situation is often sacrificed
under pressure
– Problem solving by extrapolation (rely on memories,
past similar problems, past successes)
 The Two Forms of Problems
1. Performance once met the SHOULD and no longer
does.
 The Two Forms of Problems
2. ACTUAL performance has always been below
SHOULD.
 When Actual has Never met
Expected
• Is the SHOULD realistic?
– has it ever been attained, anywhere, by anyone?
– who says it is the SHOULD?
• The “5 Whys”
• Pareto Analysis (Vital Few, Trivial Many)
• Cause and Effect Diagram (4 M’S)
• Tree Diagram (Problem Tree)
• Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (FMEA)
• Kepner-Tregoe (KT) Problem Analysis
• Others
 Problem - Flat Tire

• Why? Nails on garage floor

• Why? Box of nails on shelf split open
• Why? Box got wet
• Why? Rain thru hole in garage roof
• Why? Roof shingles are missing
• C/A Fix Roof
 Pareto Analysis
Vital Few
Supplier Material Rejections May 06 to May 07
180
160
140
120

Trivial Many
Count

100
80
60
40
20
0
60 % of
Defect r s l r l r
ng t io n he io n ing ge d e ria ship he t io n de d lure ing a rt sio n tio n eria de d ing e ss ged he
s
k i t g t i g k n t
Material a r t a O ns a a at n O ra e a a P n t a a t o r li a O
M e n B e ac k am M ma e r igu xce st F ac k ing ime e n M orr M a e a n am
r E im P D ct rk li f E e P ss D m c t C B Cl D
Rejections lie um rD
r o p n i , E r B
p
p oc e lie o rre W Sup Co Life b T SD r M EB o cu o rre te d ie E
u
S rD p l i
u
p
p nc n g lf L a E lie D nc us p pl
p S rI
lie Su ro She lie r up
p EB B I r R Su
p p li e W r p S E li e
pp r e p pp
Su u p lie pli Su u
S p up S
Su S
Count 162139 34 20 19 19 15 15 14 14 11 9 7 7 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 5
Percent 32 27 7 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1
Cum % 32 59 66 70 74 78 80 83 86 89 91 93 94 96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 100
 Cause and Effect Diagram
(Fishbone/Ishikawa Diagrams)

S (METHODS) CAUSE EFFECT (RESULTS)

“Four M’s” Model

MANPOWER METHODS

OTHER EFFECT

MATERIALS MACHINERY
 Cause and Effect Diagram
Loading My Computer
MAN/WOMAN METHODS

Inserted CD Wrong
Cannot Answer Prompt
Question Not Following InstructionsInstructions are Wrong

Brain Fade
Cannot
OTHER Load
Software
Not Enough Free
Power Interruption CD Missing on PC
Memory

Bad CD Wrong Type CD Inadequate System

Graphics Card Incompatible

Hard Disk Crashed
MATERIALS MACHINERY
 Tree Diagram
Result Cause/Result Cause/Result Cause

Primary Secondary Tertiary

Result
Causes Causes Causes
 Tree Diagram
Result Cause/Result Cause/Result Cause
Lack of Models/
Benchmarks No Money for Reference
Materials
Stale/Tired No Outside Input
Approaches
Research Not No Funds for
Funded Classes

No Consequences No Performance
Reviews
Poor Safety Inappropriate Infrequent
Performance Behaviors Inspections No Special Subject
Classes
Inadequate Training
Lack of Regular
Safety Meetings
Lack of No Publicity
Employee
Attention Zero Written Safety
Lack of Sr. Management Messages
Attention
No Injury Cost
Tracking
Failure Mode and Effect Analysis
Your Problem Analysis Tools
 KT Techniques of PA
• Definition of the Problem
• Description of the Problem in 4 dimensions:
identity, location, timing and magnitude
• Extraction of key information in the 4
dimensions to generate Possible Causes
• Testing for most Possible Causes
• Verification of the true cause
 Problem Definition
• Name the Problem
– Be precise
– Is the deviation from SHOULD clear
– Is the cause unknown
 Specify the Problem
• Describe the problem in detail using four
dimensions:
– What - identify the deviation we are trying to
explain
– Where - location of the deviation
– When - timing of the deviation
– Extent - magnitude of the deviation
 IS and IS NOT
• Any problem can be described by answering
the IS specifying questions
– question wording may need to be modified to
suit; especially for a human performance problem
– establish problem detection facts & data
• Next we need a basis of comparison
– What COULD BE but IS NOT
 IS NOT
• Nothing is more conducive to sound analysis
than some relevant basis of comparison
• Search in all four dimensions looking for
Closest Logical Comparison
• This narrows the scope of the search for
cause; isolates distinguishing features
 Develop Possible Causes
• We will use Distinctions and Changes to lead
us to Possible Causes.
• As we proceed, remember:
– knowledge and experience are key
– brainstorm - don’t close too quickly
– “cast a large net”
 Distinction vs Change

Condition or Situation Events or Process that

That Already Exist for Arise Before a Problem
Long Time

STATIC DYNAMIC
 Distinctions

• Ask “what is distinctive about (the IS

data) when compared with (the IS NOT
data)?”
– for all specifying questions in all
dimensions.
 Changes
• We now search for the of change between
acceptable and unacceptable performance
• What changed in, on, around, or about each
Distinction?
 Possible Causes
• If all relevant information about a problem has
been obtained, the explanation of cause will
emerge
• Ask “how could this distinction (or this
change) have produced the deviation
described in the problem statement.
 Test Possible Causes
• Test Possible Causes
– Does it explain the WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, and
EXTENT?
– Does it require no (or minimal) additional
assumptions to make it work?
– Are necessary assumptions reasonable?
• Identify the most likely possible cause.
 Confirm Cause
• Confirmation seeks to verify the cause and
effect relationship
– additional information
– additional actions
• Observe
• Experiment
• Fix and Monitor
 CASE EXAMPLE
• Problem Statement: Breeder Chicks are
Runting/Stunting.

Note: Problem statement is aimed at

gathering the facts surrounding the problem
in a systematic fashion, and sorted and
organized in such a way as to make the
analysis of the information simpler
 Describe the Problem (1)
Following through with the Breeder Chicks are Runting/Stunting
problem, we were able to gather the following information:
• WHAT: Breeder chicks were experiencing runting/stunting,
but broiler chicks were not. The problem was
runting/stunting, not deformities or oversize growth.
• WHERE: This was occurring in Malaysia, but not in Taiwan or
in the United States facilities. Within the Malaysian facility, we
were seeing it in the general population coops, but not in the
incubator coops.
 Describe the Problem (2)
• WHEN: This problem was first noticed in July, 1994 and had
not been experienced prior to that. It appeared that the
runting/stunting was occurring in some months of the year,
but we did not have enough data to state this as fact. The
runting/stunting first began to be observed when chicks were
12 – 16 weeks old, not in younger chicks or more mature
chicks.
• EXTENT: The size of the problem (number of chicks
experiencing the problem, etc.) seemed to vary a good bit.
More data was needed in order to draw conclusions, although
it was stable (i.e., not getting worse, but not getting better).
 Identify Possible Causes
• Now that we have gathered all of the relevant facts
and sorted them in a logical manner, it is time to
identify the possible causes we think may be
responsible for the problem.
• One of the inherent dangers of attempting to solve
problems without a process as the backbone is that
these efforts tend to broaden the amount of
information that needs to be analyzed, rather than
narrow the focus.
 Identify Possible Causes (1)
So, when looking for distinctions in the data we had collected about
the poor breeder chicks that were runting/stunting, we discovered
the following:
1. Breeder chicks were smaller than broiler chicks and were also
kept with their mothers longer.
2. The general population coops were outside and unprotected,
whereas the incubator coops were not.
3. The general population coops were also farther from the main
offices.
4. July was the beginning of monsoon season.
5. At age 12 – 16 weeks, the breeder chicks were first moved out
of the incubator coops.
 Identify Possible Causes (2)
Now, following the process, the only relevant changes that might
be the cause of the runting/stunting MUST be changes true only
for these distinctions.
1. A change, around the fact that breeder chicks are smaller in
size than broiler chicks, was that the minimum weight
requirement (what is considered to be a ‘healthy’ chick) was
reduced as a matter of policy in January, 1994.
2. All of the other distinctions had no changes (i.e., breeder
chicks had always been kept with their mothers longer,
monsoon season had always begun in July, etc.)
 Identify Possible Causes (3)
Using both knowledge and experience (K&E) and distinctions
and changes (D&C), we identified several possible causes for our
breeder chicks runting/stunting:
1. Poorly trained caretakers not properly feeding chicks (K&E);
2. Grandparent/parent lineage has genetic defect (K&E);
3. Minimum weight requirement not sufficient to support chick
immune system working properly (D&C); and
4. Exposure to outside elements causes retarded growth rate
(D&C).
 Evaluate Possible Causes
• Now that we have the facts about the problem and have
identified possible causes for the problem, it is necessary to
evaluate these possible causes and see if they are supported by
the facts.
• For each of the possible causes, we need to ask a very specific
question for each of the facts we have gathered during the
Describe the Problem phase. That question is “If the possible
cause is the reason for the problem, how does it explain both
the IS information and the IS NOT information?” The
1. It does explain it;
2. It doesn’t explain it; or
3. It explains it, but only if you assume something.
 Evaluate Possible Causes (1)
• Question: If poorly trained caretakers are not properly
feeding the chicks is the reason we are experiencing
runting/stunting, how does it explain that it is only happening
to breeder chicks, but not to broiler chicks?
• Answer: It cannot be explained…it is unlikely that the
caretakers have a vendetta solely against breeder chicks, yet
continue to care adequately for broiler chicks.
• Since the possible cause could not be explained when taking
the facts into consideration, our conclusion is very simple.
This could not possibly be the cause of the problem.
 Evaluate Possible Causes (2)
• We were quickly able to eliminate genetic defects via
lineage as the true cause of the breeder chicks
runting/stunting, based on the fact that the
parents/grandparents of the Malaysian chicks were
identical to that of the chicks raised in Taiwan and the
United States.
• Similarly, the chicks had always had the same amount of
exposure to outside elements, even prior to the onset of
this problem; and
• weight requirements for chicks had been reduced for all
breeding facilities, not just the facility in Malaysia.
 Evaluate Possible Causes (3)
• However, an interesting theory began to
develop once we began considering changes
in combination with other changes. The most
striking combination created the following
question: How could a reduced weight
requirement for breeder chicks, in
combination with their exposure to outside
elements, cause this runting/stunting?
 Evaluate Possible Causes (4)
• Analysis of this theory against the facts of the case
made quite a bit of sense, with the exception of when
the runting/stunting was occurring. As you may recall,
we did not have WHEN information good enough to be
considered factual. But, based on what we did know, if
we assumed that the runting/stunting began and
ended in lockstep with the beginning and end of
monsoon season (i.e., runting/stunting began in July,
ended in August/September timeframe), this possible
cause quickly emerged as the Most Likely Cause.
 Generate Alternatives
• Finally, several alternatives for corrective
action were briefly discussed, such as
rescinding the weight requirement reduction,
providing a ‘shot’ for breeder chicks designed
to temporarily boost their immune systems,
and simply constructing enclosures at the
facilities in Malaysia to shelter the chicks
during monsoon season.
THANKS