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By A. Alsherri1 and K. P. George,2 Member, ASCE

(Reviewed by the Highway Division)

of pavements is developed. The computer program, Reliability Analysis

and Performance of Pavements (RAPP-I), employs Monte Carlo simula-

tion techniques to solve the design equations (e.g., AASHTO, Premium)

in which all of the design variables are assumed to be probabilistic and

normally distributed. RAPP-I, in conjunction with the respective design

model, calculates the present serviceability index (PSI) of pavements in

one-year increments. In addition to uncertainties attributable to the

design factors, errors due to idealization of the model are included in the

PSI calculation. By comparing the computed PSI with the terminal PSI,

assuming that both are normally distributed, standard probabilistic

techniques are employed for calculating pavement reliability. An ex-

pression for calculating the "expected" life of pavements, employing

the reliabilities at various ages, is proposed. The expected life is found

to be a convenient measure for comparing the performance of various

pavement design features.

INTRODUCTION

Development of highway pavements that require minimum maintenance

during the in-service life is the primary goal of recent highway studies.

Estimation of pavement performance within acceptable levels is necessary

in selecting the best design for a given project.

Most design factors that affect pavement performance have some degree

of variation, which may come from dispersion of their values and/or errors

associated with estimating these factors. The uncertainty also arises from

the design models themselves. There are two sources of model error. First,

the number of basic physical variables has been limited to a finite number

in leaving out a possibly infinite set of parameters that in the model

idealization process have been judged to be of secondary or negligible

importance for the problem at hand. Second, model uncertainty is due to

the idealization of operational mathematical expressions. Besides this

cause of pragmatic simplification, uncertainty may be due to lack of

knowledge about the detailed interplay between the considered variables.

Historically, variation or uncertainty (in design) has been accounted for

by the use of safety factors or arbitrary decisions based on experience.

However, the use of safety factors, such as confidence levels in the design

of pavements with little consideration given to uncertainty of design

factors, has resulted in few failures (Hudson 1975).

In order to assess comprehensively the effects of uncertainty, probabi-

listic concepts need to be applied in an explicit, nonarbitrary way.

'Res. Asst., The Univ. of Mississippi, University, MS 38677.

2

Prof. of Civ. Engrg., The Univ. of Mississippi, University, MS 38677.

Note. Discussion open until October 1, 1988. To extend the closing date one

month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Manager of Journals. The

manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and possible publication on July

17, 1986. This paper is part of the Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 114,

No. 2, May, 1988. ©ASCE, ISSN 0733-947X/88/0002-0294/S1.00 + $.15 per page.

Paper No. 22448.

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formulations to pavements.

The concept of reliability could be used to quantify the uncertainty

associated with design predictions. One general definition of reliability is

the probability of success that the pavement will have in fulfilling its

intended function. One such function is to provide a certain serviceability

(i.e., performance) over the design period.

Lemer and Moavenzadeh (1971) developed one of the first models

dealing with reliability of pavements. They pointed out that the factors

affecting the degree of variation in pavement system parameters have a

significant effect on system reliability. Lemer attempted to apply the

Monte Carlo simulation method to a complex pavement design method for

the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The computer time associ-

ated with the Monte Carlo simulation proved to be excessive and imprac-

tical for practical applications.

Another model has been developed to apply the concepts of reliability to

the systems analysis of rigid pavements for the Texas Highway Depart-

ment (Kher et al. 1970). Three probabilistic variables have been considered

to compute a series of nearly optimal pavement designs at certain

confidence levels. These variables are (1) Flexural strength of concrete; (2)

modulus of subgrade reaction; and (3) Texas triaxial class of the subgrade.

Kher et al. (1970), however, employed a modified procedure that they

developed for simplicity. In any event, the computer searches out the

necessary design probabilities for established confidence levels. Assume,

for example, that a design confidence level of 95% is selected. Then the

outputs will be a series of nearby optimal pavement designs, all of which

can be expected to perform at the 95% reliability level with respect to

flexural strength of concrete and modulus of subgrade reaction. Another

way of saying this is that a 95% probability exists that premature failure

will not occur because of unexpectedly low strength in the slab or subgrade

(Hudson 1975).

Despite the importance of this work, the basic approach in predicting

reliability level according to the design parameter confidence levels raises

some questions. For example, if a 95% confidence level is selected for

flexural strength of concrete and modulus of subgrade reaction, the

expected performance may not be 95%. The reason is that the variation in

the pavement performance is dependent on such factors as (1) The

variation behavior of each design parameter; (2) the number of probabilis-

tic design parameters; and (3) the mathematical form of the design

equation.

The reliability model developed by Darter and Hudson (1973) considers

two major factors associated with the loss of serviceability or "failure of a

pavement": traffic effects and environmental effects. Darter pointed out

that two basic parameters associated with predicting the life of a pavement

section are the number of 18-kip equivalent single-axle load applications

(ESAL) withstood by the section before serviceability reaches (terminal),

Nt, and the number of 18-kip ESAL loadings applied to the pavement, NT.

Darter defined reliability, R, mathematically as follows:

R = P[N,^NT] , (1)

where P[ ] = probability that the event in the brackets will occur.

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normally distributed:

R = P[D^0] ' (2)

where D = log N, - log NT.

VESYS model (Kenis 1977) uses a procedure similar to that developed

by Darter, in that reliability is calculated in terms of the present service-

ability index as follows:

R=P\pf^Pt] (3)

where pf = present serviceability index at time t; and p, = limiting

(terminal) serviceability index, generally set at 2.5 for AASHTO design

and 3.0 for premium design.

The reliability concept was formally introduced in the AASHTO Guide

for Design of Pavement Structures (1985). Reliability, R, in this context

corresponds to the probability that a pavement section will survive the

design period traffic with p a pt, where p and p, refer to the serviceability

levels at the end of design period and terminal serviceability level,

respectively. The formal definition of reliability is again according to Eq. 2.

N, and NT cannot be determined precisely; in this spirit, the AASHTO

Guide defines W, and wT as estimators of N, and NT. Reliability design

factor (log FR) is defined as follows:

log W, - log wT = log FR (4)

With this basic premise, a design equation (Eq. 5) was derived in the

AASHTO Guide.

log W, = -ZR *S0 + \ogwT (5)

where ZR = standard deviate corresponding to reliability level R; S0 =

overall standard deviation. The formulation in Eq. 5 has made it possible

to design pavements with a given reliability R, and nomographs for design

can be seen in the AASHTO Guide (1985).

One drawback of this model is that the design equation considers the

total variance (attributable to all design parameters) in the form of a

correction factor, S0 . To what extent a single feature variation affects the

reliability/performance of pavement cannot, therefore, be investigated

using the AASHTO model.

TABLE 1. Design Models for Various Pavement Types

Pavement Type Design Model Used

0) (2)

FLEX AASHTO Interim Guide (1972)

1985 Guide

JPC AASHTO Interim Guide (1972)

Premium (George et al. 1982)

1985 Guide

CRC ARBP (Design 1981)

Premium (George et al. 1982)

COMP AASHTO Interim Guide (1972)

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( START j

the Premium and AASHTO Models

Input: Number of Load Repetitions Input: Initial and Teminal input: Materials and

(18-kip ESAL Applications) Serviceability ind- Environmental

Each Year ices/Design Life Design Param-

eters

Deviation of pf(l)'s( p _ and

qij , Respectively} PE

Hi f °EXP(-Z2/2)dz

( END J

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Objectives

This study develops a simulation model for evaluating the reliability/

performance of pavements. The analysis relies on analytical formulation

relating performance and the basic design parameters. The model is

versatile in that it not only calculates the reliability of the pavement with

age, but also the expected or average life.

RELIABILITY/PERFORMANCE MODEL

fulfilling its intended function. One such function is to provide a certain

serviceability (i.e., performance) over the design period. Reliability of

various pavement types—flexible (FLEX), composite (COMP), jointed

plain concrete (JPC), and continuously reinforced concrete (CRC)—will be

formulated in accordance with Eq. 3, which is written in terms of present

serviceability index. In order to calculate the PSI as a function of time one

has to rely on design models (analytical relations between PSI and basic

design parameters). A list of those models for various pavement types is

included in Table 1. Both the AASHTO Interim Guide and the AASHTO

Guide models are readily available in the literature; therefore, they are not

included here. The ARBP model for CRC (Design of Continuously

Reinforced Concrete Highways 1981), is, for all practical purposes,

identical to that of the AASHTO Interim Guide model. The premium model

for JPC is somewhat different from the AASHTO models; for ready

reference, it is included in Appendix I.

The scheme of computing the reliability involves calculating the present

serviceability index, pf, at a specified time and comparing that with the

terminal serviceability index, p, (see Eq. 3). The computer model, desig-

nated Reliability Analysis and Performance of Pavement-I (RAPP-I),

performs this task making use of the Monte Carlo simulation method. As

can be verified in the flow chart of RAPP-I (see Fig. 1), the program

calculates pavement reliability as well as expected life, the latter based on

reliability. The following sections briefly describe the various submodels

that constitute the RAPP-I program.

The algorithm for calculating PSI values, pf, based on a set of input

design factors (independent variables) constitutes the first submodel.

When the dependent variable pf is a nonlinear function of independent

variables (concrete properties, soil strength, climatic factors, initial ser-

viceability index, as in JPC and CRC models) the mean and variance of pf

are more difficult to calculate, often done by numerical integration. The

point estimate method was employed first to perform the calculations. The

mathematical procedure, however, is very complicated because the design

equation is nonlinear and the application of two-point estimate may not be

accurate. The Monte Carlo simulation method, however, turned out to be

more practical and straightforward to use than the point estimate method.

The design equation model or the mathematical formulation embedded in

the design model is solved by the simulation technique in conjunction with

the assumed probabilistic formulations for all the input design factors.

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In the model, all the design parameters including initial and terminal

serviceability indices are assumed probabilistic quantities (see Appendix

II). Relying on the results of previous studies (Hudson 1975), and for the

sake of simplicity, the writers assume that the input design factors are

normally distributed. The values of design factors are generated indepen-

dently by using a subroutine based on the central limit theorem. The

following algorithm has been developed for this purpose:

from u (0,1).

2. Z = S ? i , Ui — 6 where z = the standard deviate of a random variable.

3. x = Z a + (x where |x, cr = mean, standard deviation of a given input

variable.

Making use of one set of selected input design factors (a single value

randomly selected for each factor) apy-value is computed using the design

model. The calculations are repeated 500 times, resulting in an equal

number of pj-values; each value results from a unique set of input design

factors. The mean and standard deviation of the 500 /^-values are now

calculated as a part of the submodel.

In order to verify the normal distribution assumption, the /^values,

computed by RAPP-I for a JPC pavement at an age of 10 years (design life

of 20 years) are plotted in a histogram in Fig. 2. Typical input data (the

mean value and coefficient of variation) for the RAPP-I model with

premium as well as AASHTO Guide equations are included in Appendix II,

Table 3. Note that the data fall under four general categories: traffic,

material properties, environment, and limiting criteria for serviceability.

The probability distributions of pyfor both premium and AASHTO Interim

Guide models are included in the figure. For all practical purposes, the two

histograms resemble normal probability functions—the histogram of the

premium model more so than that of the AASHTO model.

Model Uncertainty

The (uncertainty) analysis described in the preceding section ignores

model uncertainty or error due to imperfect formulation of the design

model. To estimate the model uncertainty one must in principle be able to

observe many differences between (or ratios of) observed and predicted

outputs. The observed values can be compared with model predicted

values to yield data from which estimates of standard deviation of model

prediction <sME, can be made. The aggregate standard deviation (error) of

the model, apf, must now be computed by combining, in accordance with

Eq. 6, <rME, and the error due to uncertainty in the design factors, vpd.

orp/=(a^ + a^)1/2 (6)

The model error of FLEX and JPC models (AASHTO Interim Guide

1972) are determined to be normally distributed with a standard deviation

of 0.24 and 0.46, respectively (Shah et al. 1985). The error associated with

the premium model for design of JPC pavements is also normally distrib-

uted with a standard deviation of approximately 0.15 (George et al. 1988).

The standard deviation, upf, with age as well as with serviceability level

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40

(a)

20'

_, I iliMJ U""H •

0.0

—f—

2.0 3.0 4,0

—,

1.0

Serviceability Index 5.0

40.

(b)

20

0

0.0

• >lmM| Ull II lillnll

1.0 2.0 3.0

ill 4.0

llll'J '•

-I

5.0

Serviceability Index

Models for JPC Pavements at Age = 10 years (500 Observations): (a) Premium

Model; (b) AASHTO Interim Guide Model

and decreases with increasing level of serviceability. The above result

simply confirms an intuitive conclusion that the reliability of the pavement

system decreases with age as well as with decreasing level of serviceability

index. That the RAPP-I program correctly depicts the variances can be

offered as an empirical proof of the model.

Reliability

When both pf (mean and standard deviation) and p, (mean and standard

deviation) are known, with the assumption that they are both normally

distributed, reliability, R, may be estimated using the following ex-

pression:

IV ~ IV

R = <$> = 4>Uo) (7)

(o- Pf +

°pt>

where § = standard normal distribution; upf, upt = mean values of pf, p,;

apf, dpt = standard deviations of pf, p,; and z0 = standard normal deviate.

Reliability defined in Eq. 7 can be calculated using the following formu-

lation:

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Decreases with Increasing Serviceability Level

1 p dz

exp (8)

Performance/Expected Life

Whereas the reliability of a pavement (toward the end of its design life)

is a basic measure of performance, the expected life (average life through-

out which the serviceability does not fall below a minimum level) turns out

to be a better parameter indicating performance. The term expected is to

be understood as in the theory of probability and has the meaning of

"average in a large population" with all relevant circumstances un-

changed. Performance is a measure of the accumulated service provided

by the pavement. In probabilistic terms, it may be interpreted as the

expected life of acceptable service. The minimum level of acceptability

may be defined by the designer; the AASHTO Interim Guide design has

adopted a minimum serviceability index of 2.5, for example. By the

definition of Eq. 3, reliability less than one, say R, means that 1 — R

fraction of the sections has fallen short of providing acceptable minimum

service. Another interpretation of reliability, employing the concepts of

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Life Expectancy According to RAPP-I (Design Life 15 years and 20 years for FLEX

and J PC, Respectively)

AASHTO Guide (1985) Structural Sections for (According to RAPP-I)

Design Parameters Specific Reliability (years)

Overall Flexible

Standard Structural Rigid Slab

Reliability Deviation Number (in.) Flexible Rigid

(D (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

50 0.4 4.7 10.0

50 0.3 8.4 14.4

85 0.4 5.4 13.1

85 0.3 9.5 18.5

90 0.4 5.6 13.5

90 0.3 9.8 19.1

95 0.4 5.8 14.0

95 0.3 10.2 19.6

99 0.4 6.2 14.5

99 0.3 11.0 20.0

Eq. 1, may be offered here. Reliability i?, in the z'fh year signifies that the

life expectancy during that same one year period is Rf (note i?, S 1).

Adopting this point of view and considering the reliability of pavement in

one year increments, expected service life or performance of pavement,

designed for / years, is

E(L) = 2 R, (9)

/=i

How well the model can predict reliability and especially expected life of

pavements is studied by comparing the RAPP-I results with those of the

1985 AASHTO model. First, the structural sections required to satisfy the

reliability requirements (column 1 of Table 2) are derived for both FLEX

and JPC pavements, as listed in columns 3 and 4, respectively. The design

lives of the two types of pavements are different: 15 years for FLEX and

20 years for JPC pavements. Employing those structural sections and

relevant input data, the RAPP-I model is now used to calculate the

expected life of both FLEX and JPC pavements. Typical input data for

JPC and FLEX are included in Appendix II, Tables 3 and 4, respectively.

The life expectancy of each sample pavement, as determined by RAPP-I,

is tabulated in columns 5 and 6 for FLEX and JPC pavements. As

expected, pavements designed with higher reliability have provided su-

perior performance. The correspondence between the design reliability of

the revised AASHTO model and the life expectancy predicted by RAPP-I

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verifying the validity of the latter model.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

ment (RAPP-I), using probabilistic input variables, can compute the

reliability of a pavement with age and also its expected life. A few results

presented in this paper attest to the validity of the model. RAPP-I has been

employed to investigate the significance of the important design features of

premium pavements premium- FLEX, -COMP, -JPC, and CRC pave-

ments. The effectiveness of each feature is evaluated by comparing the

performance/expected life and reliability of typical pavement sections with

and without premium features. The salient results of this study can be seen

in a companion paper in this journal (George et al. 1988); for the results in

toto, the reader may consult Shah et al. 1985.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

to Improve Pavement Design," conducted by Globetrotters Engineering

Corporation, Chicago, Illinois, and sponsored by the Federal Highway

Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. The funding for this

study was provided by the Federal Highway Administration and the

University of Mississippi.

The opinions, findings and conclusions expressed in this report are those

of the writers and not necessarily those of the Federal Highway Adminis-

tration and the University of Mississippi. This report does not constitute a

standard, specification, or regulation.

The rigid pavement (JPC) model (Eq. 10) was derived from 76 pavement

sections located in 11 states (George et al. 1988). Mechanistic variables

were introduced by using Westergaard's edge stress model directly in the

regression analysis. Climatic variables were included by using them

directly in the regression analysis.

Mp

Pt = Pi ~ 3 exp - 1^1 (10)

where p,, /?,• = terminal, initial serviceability index; p = 19.7 F + 9.4 Dow

- 48.9; N = ESASL + 0.00256 Age * FI; and (J = 1/(2.42 Fm - 0.004 FI

- 0.009 AP) in which Dow = 1 (dowel used), 0 (no dowel); ESAL = 18-kip

equivalent single axle load; FI = freezing index, degree days; F = stress

ratio, fthe; with/, = modulus of rupture of concrete; and ae = Wester-

gaard's edge stress.

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PAVEMENTS

Coefficient of

Material Characteristic/Attribute Mean Value Variation (%)

(1) (2) (3)

Annual traffic, 18-kip ESAL applications (Wls) 0.60 x 10" 30.0

Design life (Age) 20 years NA

Modulus of rupture 4.5 MPa (650 psi) 10.0

Modulus of elasticity (E) 34,500 MPa (5 x 106 psi) 3.8

Dowels, dow (premium model only) 1.0 NA

Load transfer coefficient, (J) 3.2 (JPC) 0.32

(AASHTO, model only) 2.56 (CRC)

Modulus of subgrade reaction (k) 0.095 Mmm3 (350 pci) 35.0

Drainage coefficient, (CJ 1.0 10.0

(AASHTO model only) (Oxford, Mississippi)

Annual precipitation, (AP) 130 cm (51 in.) 15.0

Freezing index, (FI) 0.0

(Premium model only) (Oxford, Mississippi) 20.0

Initial serviceability index 4.5 6.7

Terminal serviceability index

AASHTO 2.5 16.0

Premium 3.0 16.0

Overall standard deviations (5„) 0.3 NA

Model error of the AASHTO and premium

models (<rME),

AASHTO 0.24 NA

Premium 0.15 NA

Coefficient of

Variations,

Material Characteristric/Attribute Mean Value percent

Annual traffic, 18-kip ESAL applications 0.60 x 106 30.0

(W18)

Design life (age) 15 years NA

Subgrade resilient modulus (Mr) 34.4 MPa (5,000 psi) 20.0

Structural numbers,

'a, (AC) 0.44 5.0

a2 (granular base) 0.14 8.0

a3 (granular subbase) 0.12 8.0

Drainage coefficients

m2 (base) 1.0 10.0

m3 (subbase) 1.0 10.0

Number of layers excluding the subgrade 3 NA

Regional number (R) 2.0 20.0

(Oxford, Mississippi)

Initial serviceability index (p,) 4.5 6.7

Terminal serviceability index (p,) 2.5 16.0

Overall standard deviation (5„) 0.4 NA

Model error (crM£) 0.46 NA

304

rom ascelibrary.org by "Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur (F.K.A.Bengal Engineering & Science University)" on 10/17/19. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all ri

State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.

AASHTO interim guide for design of pavement structure. (1972). American

Association for State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington, D.C.

Benjamin, J. R., and Cornell, C. A. (1970). Probability statistics and decision for

civil engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York, N.Y.

Darter, M. L, and Hudson, W. R. (1973). "Probabilistic design concepts applied to

flexible pavement system design." Report No. 123-18, Center for Highway

Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex.

Design of continuously reinforced concrete highways. (1981). CRC Manual, As-

sociated Reinforcing Bar Producers—CRSI, Chicago, 111.

George, K. P., Alsherri, A., and Shah, N. S. (1988). "Reliability analysis of

premium pavement design features." J. Transp. Engrg., ASCE, 114(5),

George, K. P., et al. (1982). "Iterim guide for design of premium pavements." Final

Report to FHWA, Washington, D.C.

Hudson, W. R. (1975). "State-of-the-art in predicting pavement reliability from

input variability." Report No. FAA-RD-75-207, U.S. Army Waterways Experi-

ment Station, Vicksburg, Miss.

Kenis, W. J. (1977). "Predicted design procedure for flexible pavement using the

VESYS structural subsystem." Proc. Fourth Int. Conf. on Struct. Design of

Asphalt Pavements, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich., 101-130.

Kher, K. K., Hudson, W. R., and McCullough, B. F. (1970). "A System Analysis

of Rigid Pavement Design." Report No. 123-5, The University of Texas at

Austin, Austin, Tex.

Lemer, A. C , and Moavenzaydeh, F. (1971). "Reliability of highway pavements."

Highway Research Board, Record No. 362, Washington, D.C.

Shah, N. S., et al. (1985). "Evaluation of alternatives to improve pavement

design." Report FHWA-TS-85-230, FHWA, Washington, D.C.

"The AASHO Road Test, Pavement Research." (1962). Highway Research Board

Special Report 61E, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.

" base layers, respectively;

cd = drainage coefficient (rigid pavements);

E = modulus of elasticity;

£[] = expected value;

ESAL = equivalent single axle load;

FR = reliability design factor;

f, = ' working stress of concrete;

J = load transfer coefficient;

k = modulus of subgrade reaction;

M,. = subgrade resilient modulus;

m2, m3 = drainage coefficients of the base and the subbase layers,

respectively;

NT = the actual number of ESAL's that the section will

receive over the design period;

N, = the allowable number of ESAL's that the section can

receive until it fails;

Pf = present serviceability index at time t;

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R = regional number;

Rj = reliability at year /;

Sa = overall standard deviation;

M(0,1) = uniform distribution from 0 to 1;

ut = uniformly distributed random number from 0 to 1;

W, = modified number of ESAL's, FR x WT;

wT = predicted number of ESAL's that the section will receive

over the design period;

x = the value of random variable (generated);

Z = the standard normal deviate of a random variable;

ZR = the standard deviate corresponding to reliability R;

(x = mean value of design variable; and

a = standard deviation.

306

- DFM-Checklist-ExcelVersion.xlsHochgeladen vonMark Wilkinson
- Triangulo SAMIHochgeladen vonyadi
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