FASHION FORECASTING

Fashion forecasting is a process of analyzing upcoming trends by predicting colors, fabrics and
styles that will be a part of latest collections in the stores. The forecaster works on all categories
and variants of the fashion industry, explains Ankita Sodhi.

What is Fashion Forecasting? Predicting trends before they arrive for an upcoming
season is known as Fashion forecasting. It is a vital activity where experienced
fashion analysts scrutinize past buying activity , signs for new market trends and
project them into the future.

Fashion forecasting is a global

career that focuses on upcoming
trends. A fashion forecaster
predicts the colors, fabrics,
textures, materials, prints,
graphics, beauty/grooming,
accessories, footwear, street
style, and other styles that will
be presented on the runway and
in the stores for the upcoming
seasons. The concept applies to not one, but all levels of the fashion industry including haute
couture, ready-to-wear, mass market, and street wear. Trend forecasting is an overall process
that focuses on other industries such as automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature,
and home furnishings. Fashion forecasters are responsible for attracting consumers and helping
retail businesses and designers sell their brands. Today, fashion industry workers rely on the
Internet to retrieve information on new looks, hot colors, celebrity wardrobes, and designer
collections.

Long-Term Forecasting

Long-term forecasting is the process of analyzing and evaluating trends that can be identified by
scanning a variety of sources for Information. A fashion lasts over two years. When scanning the
marker and the consumers, fashion forecasters must follow demographics of certain areas, both
urban and suburban, as well as examine the impact on retail and its consumers due to the
economy, political system, environment, and culture.

Long-term forecasting seeks to identify major changes In International and domestic

demographics, shifts in the fashion industry along with market structures, consumer
expectations, values, and Impulsion to buy, new developments in technology and science, and
shifts in the economic, political, and cultural alliances between certain countries. Many
specialized marketing consultants focus on long-term forecasting and attend trade shows and
other events that notify the industry on hat is to come. Any changes in demographics and
psychographics that are to affect the consumers’ needs and which will influence a company's
business and particular (niche market) are determined.

Short-Term Forecasting

Short-term forecasting focuses on current events both domestically and internationally as well
as pop culture in order to identify possible trends that can be communicated to the customer
through the seasonal color palette, fabric, and silhouette stories. It gives fashion a modern twist
to a classic look that intrigues our eyes. Some important areas to follow when scanning the
environment are current events, art, sports, science and technology. Short-term forecasting can
also be considered fad forecasting.

FASHION
Forecasting and trend analysis plays
a vital role in the fashion industry
and in brand development. The
business is continually looking ahead
and fashion forecasting is about
identifying, evaluating and
predicting growth in the Industry's
target markets, as well as developing
brands through promotion and
retail.

Forecasting skills are used in a diverse range of activities, such as seasonal change, new or
relaunched products, display, garment agencies or store concessions. Analysis of developments,
trends and markets will enable you to Influence the future direction of fashion and style based
product, through your understanding of the mechanics of the fashion cycle and its application to
the fashion Industry.

Fashion is a style that is popular in the present or a set of trends that have been accepted by a
wide audience. However, fashion itself is far from simple. Fashion is a complex phenomenon from
psychological, sociological, cultural, or commercial points of view. Forecasting is more than just
attending runway shows and picking out potential trends that can be knocked off at lower prices
(though that is part of it). It is a process that spans shifts in color and styles, changes in lifestyles
and buying patterns, and different ways of doing business. What appears to be near random
activity is in fact a process of negotiation between the fashion industry and the consumer and
between the various segments in the supply chain.
RESPONSIBILITY FOR TREND FORECASTING
Each retailer's trend varies and is mainly dependent upon whether the company is a wholesale
brand or private label developer. "Every season, there are hundreds of designers showing
breathtaking collections that the average consumer will never see. What does matter is who sees
them—The in-house designers and buyers at fast fashion retailers, people who are paying close
attention, identifying and predicting which styles, patterns and cuts will appeal to the average
woman."

Larger companies such as Forever 21 have their own trend departments where they follow the
styles, fabrics, and colors for the upcoming seasons. This can also be referred to as vertical
integration. A company with its own trend department has a better advantage than those who
do not because its developers are al) e to work together to create a unified 100k for their sales
floor. Each seasonal collection offered by a product developer is the result of trend research
focused on the target market it has defined for itself.

Product developers may offer anywhere from two to six seasonal collections per year, depending
on the Impact of fashion trends in a particular product category and price point. Women's wear
companies are more sensitive to the whims of fashion and may produce four to six lines a year.
Men's wear companies present two to four lines a year, and children's wear firms typically
present three to four seasonal collections. For each season, a collection is designed by the
product developers and is based on a specific theme, which is linked to the color and fabric Story.

A merchandiser also plays a key role in the direction of upcoming trends. Different from
developers, merchandisers have much more experience in buying and are knowledgeable in what
consumers will be looking for. The designer takes the particular trends and then determines the
styles, silhouettes and colors for the line and garments while creating an overall theme for the
particular season.

WHY FASHION FORECAST IS IMPORTANT?

 It is Impossible to ask all consumers what they will want to wear next season or year.
Therefore, designers and merchandisers must anticipate their wants and needs by being
aware of what is going on in the world and anticipating how these events and conditions
will affect fashion.
 Every executive, designer and merchandiser in the fashion industry must be involved with
research and analysis. They continuously study the lifestyle of consumers, shop the
market, and read trend and design reports, fashion magazines and new papers in order
to understand consumer and forecast what they might want to buy.

 This research is necessary to make intelligent planning decisions regarding design,

manufacturing, and sales.

 Designers, merchandisers and buyers must learn to predict trends, which are new
directions in fashion.

 Fashion designers also follow fashion services, collection reports and trend books to study
forecasts.

 Textile and fashion designers use many different resources to analyze trends because
they want their designs to fit into the mainstream of fashion.

 Noting the life style of men, women, children who are their customers.

 Researching sales statistics to establishing trends.

 Evaluating the popular designer collection to find fashion colors, silhouettes, fabrication
etc.

 Observing street fashion and keeping up with current events, the art, and the mood of
the public.
FASHION FORECASTING
The tempo of innovations in all fields has
increased phenomenally since the Industrial
Revolution new trends emerged, some
established trends were interrupted, and
some accelerated. The Industrial Revolution
was based on the Invention of machines that
could supplement or amplify manual work.
The Information Revolution, powered in
part by computer technology beginning in
the late 1940s, had a similar effect on
speeding up the emergence of Innovations
and accelerating change. Executives can do
little to change an established trend.
Forecasting allows them to adapt, and
adjust their strategies to be in harmony with
established trends.

The decade of the 1990s is Instructive in terms of fashion forecasting. Some of the change that
rocked the apparel business in the decade can be traced to cultural shifts such as women entering
the workforce, becoming time pressured, and reprioritizing their Interests; Other changes to the
values and preferences of the baby boom generation played out in Consumer behavior. Social
rules governing appropriate attire had begun breaking down in the late 1960s, but the process
continued until casual looks became acceptable for almost all occasions. At times, economic
bumps and international turmoil played a part in dampening apparel spending.

The industry, attempting to reactivate demand, speeded up the flow of "new looks" Into mass
fashion and offered "options" in the service of individuality. Increased coverage of "soft" news
by the press drew attention to runway extremes and unleashed general criticism of the fashion
system. Consumers became confused by mixed signals and disillusioned with the style guidance
of designers, fashion journalists, and the stores, voting with their dollars to reject highly touted
looks. Some consumers began to play it safe by choosing classic clothes in black and other basic
colors. Even more disturbing for the industry was the finding by a research firm that the core
market segment for apparel-women between 25 and 44-held back on buying clothes beginning
in 1996 while diverting spending to travel, fitness, and other leisure activities ('NPD: Clothes
buying," 1999).

With seasonal fashion dimming as a driver in refurbishing wardrobes, consumers concentrated

on getting the best price, even if it meant waiting until markdowns. These changes boosted the
success of some parts of the fashion Industry. The Gap and active wear manufacturers soared on
the casual trend and the relaxation of social regulations regarding appropriateness. The changes
in consumer behaviour and the effect of the economy on consumer confidence magnified any
missteps by the fashion industry, leaving some to rethink, reorganize, and relaunch. All of these
changes relate to some aspect of style evolution, cultural change, consumer preference research,
competitive analysis, and trend forecasting.

Forecasting professionals were very active during the decade Of the 1990s as prominent advisors
to the industry. Marketing consultants counselled giving women what they wanted, a strategy
that led to the boom in selling fashion basics. When that boom was over, the consultants got
some of the blame. Critic’s pointed out that the bare-all slip dress could never have come from a
focus group. Melrose Place revived the miniskirt success suit when some trend forecasters called
the category dead. Consultants seemed to be missing the vital quality of novelty and vividness
that makes fashion cool and hot at the same time. The forecaster walks the same difficult line as
the designers, manufacturers, and retailers-the line between fashionable and functional,
between too funky to be wearable and too boring to be fun.

STEPS IN DEVELOPING A FORECAST

Forecasting consists of tools and techniques applied systematically. Just as important are human and
interpretation. The steps in developing a forecast are:

Step l: Identify the basic facts about past trends and forecasts.
Step 2: Determine the causes of change in the past.
Step 3: Determine the differences between past forecasts and actual behavior.
Step 4: Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future.
Step 5: Apply forecasting tools and techniques, paying attention to issues of accuracy and reliability.
Step 6: Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations from
expectations.
Step 7: Revise the forecast when necessary.

VARIOUS PRACTICES INVOLVED IN FORECASTING

a) Study of various fashion seasons
b) As an impact of globalisation, mapping of megatrends by analysing collections at fashion capitals
of the world
c) Comparative study of current and previous trends
d) Identifying the niche market/client/group
e) Understanding and analyzing the demographic and psycho graphic structure of the targeted
market/client/group
 f) Predicting themes, stories and trends for upcoming season by generating a style and trend
report

Various Fashion Seasons

Design collections are launched as per specific seasons. These include:

a) Spring/Summer
b) High Summer
c) Pre-fall
d) Autumn/Winter
e) Resort/Cruise

The two biggest seasons are Spring/Summer and Autumn/Winter. These collections are
showcased at major fashion weeks almost six months prior to when they appear in stores. These
include both haute couture as well as ready-to-wear collections.

High summer is when some fashion houses or brands launch a collection after Spring/Summer
collection has been launched. Several times, these collections are extremely impactful on trends
that will emerge in the upcoming season.

Resort/cruise collections are launched for those who are keen on wearing trendy comfort wear
at holidays or while travelling for leisure.

Pre-Fall collections have a wide customer range but they are launched to target the elite fashion
fanatics and leaders. These fashion leaders are fond of an updated wardrobe. Celebrities of
various fields are often the first to get these fresh off the runway outfits.

Megatrends Mapping At Fashion Capitals

Fashion capitals are known for unique and strong identities. There are four major fashion capitals
London, Milan, Paris and New York. Various major activities like fashion weeks and fashion trade
fairs make these cities a concentrated core hub of fashion. They are looked upon for stylistic
inspirations. The collections are showcased at different times in these cities and guide colour
palettes, silhouettes and textures of upcoming trends to be launched in stores for the masses as
well as the niche markets in different fashion seasons.

Globalization through media and internet has led to widespread impact of trends in the fashion
capitals across different continents and countries. The trends in different regions are mapped to
the megatrends at the runway of these capitals by forecasters across the globe.

Comparative Study of Current and Previous Trends

A comparative report of collections and product range of each designer/design house for the
current year and previous year is generated by the forecasting team. This is done to figure out
the similarities and differences. It also works as a guide for emerging trends in silhouettes, fabrics,
colours, embroideries, textures, prints, surface manipulations and embellishments. Forecasters
can thus analyse and predict innovative and unique trends that may prove to be high in demand
in the coming season.

Identifying a niche market/client/group

One has to identify the target client for whom forecasting is required. The final product must
satisfy the preference for a particular colour, texture etc. of the targeted market.

Analysing the demographic and psychographic structuring of the market

The client/group shall be chosen carefully and must relate well to the prospect designs yet to be
developed.

Client profiles on the basis of demographics and psychographics must be analysed meticulously
for an effective choice. A few examples are:

A client profile shall have a description about a chosen/given client with reference to
demographic and psychographic study of the same. Demographics can be quantified and will
include various statistical data of the client like name, age, gender, complexion, body type,
height, budget/disposable income, and socio-economic status, occasion for which the product or
garment is required or suggested.

Psychographics are not measurable. They are quality-based and vary as per the taste of the
individual or group and preference of the client like colour choice. Other criteria include length
of garment, size and prototype of desired product, trimmings preferred types of prints and
embroideries. These may be different from the one in trend. Psychographics are related to the
quality aspect of the final product desired as per the chosen given client/group.

Generating a style and trend report for the season

The report, based on rigorous market and trend analysis, shall be generated with the following
predictions:

 Expected silhouette stories

 Expected fitting styles like pegged or flared, looser tunics or body snugging, straight fit or
narrow fit
 Preferred themes for the coming season that shall regulate different elements and
concepts to be focused by the design houses
  Colors in trend, with a brief of their categories like whether pastels will be preferred over
bright hues; multicolored or monochromes; solid colours or blended palette; high
intensity saturated chrome or toned colors
 Kind of prints that shall prove to be more popular like small or large, floral or geometric,
linear of checkered, peppy or classic
 Distinctive or conventional fabrics that shall prove popular in the coming season
 Embellishments that shall be used like pearl work, antique work, Swarovski, hand
embroideries (conventional or contemporary)
 Any unique trimmings or fasteners to enhance the look and might prove to be popular
and fit in the new trend
 An idea of the probable impact of development and special activities in sports, make-up,
technology and economic conditions on upcoming trends
 Adequate information on what is expected to be completely outdated and obsolete for
the coming season

Impact of the forecast report on design methodology and development

Design methodology is the process of putting together parts or ideas of an organisation to create
an amalgamated, functional product. The following assortment is followed for final design
development, considering the forecast report:

a) An extraction of confined theme to be worked upon for a line of products.

b) A specific colour palette shall be generated based on the theme and must match the
trend report by the forecasting team
c) As per studied and analysed demographic and psychographic structures, swatches
shall be developed before finalising final prints. These shall reflect use of
embellishments, paint, textures, colours that are to be a part of the latest collection.
d) A final illustration and material board shall be formulated to facilitate the design
development of accessories as well as garments.
e) The product should be designed to be cost effective for both consumer as well as
producer. Quality shall be maintained while making a choice of material to be used. A
proper costing and budgeting of the product shall be done.
f) The final product must be developed with desired finishing and appearance. It must
satisfy the customer's requirements and be functional and aesthetically pleasing.
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