FTI Journalism Trends 2020

FTI 2020
3RD ANNUAL EDITION
TREND REPORT
FOR
ENTERTAINMENT,
MEDIA &
TECHNOLOGY
USING AND SHARING THE MATERIAL IN THIS REPORT
We invite you to use, share and YOU ARE FREE TO: UNDER THE FOLLOWING TERMS: YOU ARE PROHIBITED FROM:
build upon the material in our 12th SHARE ATTRIBUTION COMMERCIAL SHARING
annual Future Today Institute Tech
Copy and redistribute the material in You must give appropriate credit to Don’t copy and redistribute this
Trends Report. We are making it any medium or format, including in material in any medium or format for
the Future Today Institute, provide a
freely available to the public. This your organizations and classrooms. link to this Creative Commons license, commercial purposes, including any
work is licensed under a Creative and indicate if any changes were personal/ corporate marketing and
Commons Attribution-NonCom- ADAPT made. You may do so in any reasonable client services.
mercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Interna- Remix, transform, and build upon the manner, but not in any way that sug-
gests that the Future Today Institute REPRESENTING THIS WORK
tional License. material for your own research, work
endorses you or your use. AS YOUR OWN
and teaching.
Do not represent any part of this ma-
NONCOMMERCIAL terial as your own without giving credit
You may not, under any circumstance, to the Future Today Institute.
use the material for commercial pur-
poses. ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
You may not apply legal terms or
SHAREALIKE technological measures that legally
If you remix, transform, or build upon restrict others from doing anything
the material, you must distribute your this license permits.
contributions under the same license
as you see here.
© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 2

The Future Today Institute releases two large
reports every year. In the spring, we publish
our annual FTI Emerging Tech Trends Report,
which is a comprehensive analysis of more
than 26 different industry segments and has
been in continual publication since 2007. In
the fall, we publish our annual Entertainment,
Media and Technology Trends report (EMT
Trends for shot), which offers deep analysis in
a more narrow field. This is the EMT report.

ANNUAL LETTER
Futurists spend just as much time looking back as we do forward, and as I write this annual Twenty years later, your organizations are still facing many deep uncertainties connected
letter from my office in New York City I’m reminded of where I was on this day twenty years to those questions we asked before:
ago. I was living in Japan back then, surrounded by early smartphones, Tamagotchi virtual
pets and Palm Pilots. On my MiniDisc player I was undoubtedly listening to a mix-disc with • Social networks have permanently shifted the distribution of content and have ushered in
songs from The Matrix soundtrack. I vividly remember debates at work about whether or an age of algorithmic determinism. How will you convince GenZ, Millennials and Gen X to
not the world as we knew it was about to end because of Y2K and a wonky computer glitch. pay for content?
Those working in entertainment, media and technology grappled with intense uncertain- • Will streaming platforms survive all of these new planned subscription models? Or will
ties beyond that Y2K bug: this lead to even more consolidation?
• MySpace and Napster both went live, and they signaled a radical change in distribution. • You’re still figuring out your mobile strategy, even as all the data prove that we’ve entered
What happened when people shared movies, songs, games and news content with their a new post-smartphone era. Will your company be fast and nimble enough to change
peers rather than buying from a store? strategy again before you’re disrupted out of the market?
• Google and Yahoo! had just launched, and unlike America Online, Compuserve and Net- • You’re uncertain about the difference between Twitch and Mixer and what compelled
scape these new platforms were freely available to everyone from their inception – and Ninja to switch streaming platforms. (Perhaps now you’re also wondering what, exactly,
without needing to download software. Easier access could bring hundreds of millions of Twitch and Mixer are and what that has to do with ninjas.) How does your content, your
people to the internet. What would become of human editors and producers when plat- products, and your services fit in to this new world?
forms made content decisions algorithmically?
• You don’t know when 5G will roll out everywhere, and you’re questioning the business
• Impeachment proceedings had been brought against President Bill Clinton, which foisted cases and infrastructure models for 5G. Related: is e-sports really a thing?
CNN, Fox and MSNBC into positions of tremendous influence. With lots of time to fill, the
networks brought on board in-house pundits and commentators and engaged them in
• And you’re undoubtedly thinking about all the domestic and international events on the
horizon. How will the trade wars, Brexit outcomes, U.S. presidential election, North
shoutfests. What about the after effects on public trust of media? Korea’s missile testing, the 2020 Olympics, climate change and our race to the Moon and
• It was a time of record layoffs. Companies cut hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S., Mars impact our business, our industry, and our way of life?
due to a bunch of factors: an economic crisis in Asia, a downturn in oil prices, a weaken- You must get into a habit of confronting uncertainty while thinking about the past and future
ing manufacturing sector, and increased merger and acquisition activity. News organi- simultaneously. At the end of The Matrix, Neo told us “I don’t know the future. I didn’t come
zations were headed into a downward slump. How would the internet and early smart- here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell you how it’s going to begin.”
phones impact the business of news?
We’re always at the beginning of an evolution. You and your teams can reduce uncertainty
• At the turn of the last century, we were still trying to make sense of the Columbine High using data-driven signals, trends and scenarios. Make connections between the end of
School massacre. How could something like this happen in America? How would we 1990s and today — and then connect today to your preferred tomorrows.
change gun laws to prevent something like this from happening again? How would news
organizations deal with the ethics of reporting, publishing and airing this kind of story? Sincerely,
Amy Webb
Founder, The Future Today Institute
Writing from my New York office on August 2, 2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This is the third annual edition of FTI’s
impact the distribution of content, and Digital subscription models aren’t
there are likely to be reverberating im- working. Staff of the Los Angeles Times
Entertainment, Media and Technology pacts on how every organization collects

and uses consumer data.
were furious when they received an un-
expected message from the company’s
Trends Report. It follows the same We’ve entered the post-fixed screen
executive editor. The business side of
the company had planned to double its
approach as our popular FTI Annual era. By the summer of 2019, Apple
disclosed a slump in iPhone revenue – it
digital subscriptions to 300,000 in just
one year – but because of cancellations
Trend Report, now in its 12th year. was down 12% year over year. Samsung
reported the same. Part of the reason
and missed targets, the LAT only saw a
net increase of 13,000 digital subscrip-
Combined, these reports have garnered is price: consumers just aren’t willing to
drop $1,000 or more on a mobile phone.
tions. The New York Times and Wash-
more than 8 million cumulative views.

ington Post may have had a few banner
However there are other forces in play: quarters, but there’s about to be stiff
smart wearables, smart speakers, and competition in the subscriptions space.
home automation devices. In the next Consumers who want to get news, listen
few years, consumers won’t rely on the to music, play games and watch their
KEY TAKEAWAYS that faked videos are only the beginning.
While we’re fixated on deepfake videos, single, fixed screens of their mobile favorite shows and movies are going
Synthetic media offers new opportu- devices, but will instead transition to a to have to pay a la carte, which means
especially ahead of the 2020 US elec-
nities and challenges. Japanese pop diverse, multi-interface ecosystem. spending way more for content (unlike-
tions, there are many more “deep [x]”
star Hatsune Miku, American influencer ly) or prioritizing for a budget. They’ll
applications casting an ominous shadow VSO is the new SEO. In developed mar-
Lil Miquela and Chinese news anchor have a lot to choose from: PlayStation
on the horizon. Researchers are already kets, half of the interactions consumers
Xin Xiaomeng are synthetic media. They Now, Spotify, Netflix, Audible, CBS All
able to replicate and modulate voices, have with computers will be using voice
were generated using large databases Access, Google Stadia, Jump, Shadow,
mimic body movements and gestures, by the end of 2020. This isn’t just about
and specially-trained algorithms, and Amazon.com, Hulu, Apple, Playkey and
and anticipate and generate reactive talking to a smart speaker: voice inter-
they represent a new world of synthe- the upcoming streaming services from
behaviors. faces are now everywhere, from smart
sized content. Synthetic media can be Walt Disney, Comcast NBCUniversal and
modulated and responsive to our tastes Regulation is coming. Apple, Amazon, speakers to home appliances to kiosks.
AT&T’s WarnerMedia division. And that’s
and preferences. But we don’t have eth- Google and Facebook are under investi- Consumers should expect to talk more
just in the United States.
ical guidelines on how to use synthetic gation by the Federal Trade Commission, often than they type. This impacts every
media. There is no obligation to inform Department of Justice and Congress. entertainment, media and technology Advancements in AI will mean great-
consumers that something (a person, Outside of the U.S., big tech companies company, and as a result, there will be a er efficiencies. In the past year there
pet, place or object) has been algorith- are under immense scrutiny. The E.U.’s new emphasis on voice search optimi- were many important advancements
mically generated. data protection standards have become zation (VSO). This means opportunity: throughout the subfields of artificial
the de facto global standards — and big there’s an entire VSO ecosystem waiting intelligence. What’s on the horizon are
Authenticating content is becoming to be born, and first movers are likely to new tools and systems to build live maps,
tech companies have been accused of
more difficult. Deepfakes — videos reap huge windfalls. But it also signals facilitate real-time fact checking, and
running afoul of the rules. Germany’s
created using AI that can make it look disruption to those working on the busi- aid in reporting, writing, photo and video
domestic anti-trust authority is investi-
like someone said or did something they ness side of search. editing, administrative tasks and pro-
gating big tech companies, while France
have never done — are spreading faster duction. Likewise, advancements in AI
and Britan are pushing for a digital tax.
than anyone anticipated. The problem is will soon bring down costs of rendering
Platform regulation and taxation will
and storage.

METHODOLOGY The Future Today Institute’s forecasting model uses quanti-
tative and qualitative data to identify weak signals and map
their trajectories into tech trends. Our six steps alternate
between broad and narrow scopes, which include: identify-
ing weak signals at the fringe, spotting patterns, developing
The Future Today Institute Forecasting trend candidates, calculating a trend’s velocity, creating sce-
Methodology’s Six-Step Funnel narios and finally backcasting preferred outcomes.
01
Make observations and harness
Listen for weak signals at the fringe information from the fringes of society
or a particular research area.
02
Uncover hidden patterns by categorizing
Use CIPHER to see patterns information from the fringe:
contradictions, infections, practices,
03 hacks, extremes, rarities.
Ask the right questions to determine

Identify trends whether a pattern is really a trend.
04
Calculate the velocity and trajectory
Determine trajectory of change.
05
Scenarios inform the strategy you
Write scenarios will create to take the necessary
action on a trend.
06
Mitigate deep uncertainty and future
Backcast preferred
outcomes risk by reverse-engineering your
organization’s desired outcomes.

USE TIME CONES, NOT LINES
For any given uncertainty about the future—whether that’s risk, opportunity
or growth—it’s best to think in the short and long-term simultaneously. To
do this, the Future Today Institute uses a framework that measures certain-
ty and charts actions, rather than simply marking the passage of time as
quarters or years. That’s why our timelines aren’t actually lines at all—they
are cones.
For every foresight project, we build a cone with four distinct categories:
ty
1. Tactics
certain
e un
2. Strategy Mor
3. Vision
4. Systems-level evolution
y
ertaint
dc
nce an
de
ata, evi
e d
Mor
STRATEGIC SYSTEMS-LEVEL DISRUPTION
TACTICAL VISION
PLANNING AND EVOLUTION
12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years

USE TIME CONES, NOT LINES
USE TIME CONES, NOT LINES CONT.

We start by defining the cone’s edge using highly probable events for which
there is already data or evidence. The amount of time varies for every proj-
ect, organization and industry, but typically 12-24 months is a good place
to start. Because we can identify trends and probable events (both within a
company and external to it), the kind of planning that can be done is tacti-
cal in nature, and the corresponding actions could include things like rede-
signing products or identifying and targeting a new customer segment.
Tactical decisions must fit in to an organization’s strategy. At this point in

the cone, we are a little less certain of outcomes, because we’re looking at
the next 24 months to five years. This area is what’s already most familiar
to strategy officers and their teams: we’re describing traditional strategy
ad the direction the organization will take. Our actions include defining pri-
orities, setting resource allocation, making any personnel changes needed
and the like.
Lots of organizations get stuck cycling between strategy and tactics, and
this is especially true in media and entertainment. While that process might
feel like serious planning for the future, it results in a perpetual cycle of
trying to catch up: to competitors, to new entrants, and to external sources
of disruption.
This is why you must be willing to accept more uncertainty as you continu-
ally recalibrate your organization’s vision for the future.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
002 Using and Sharing The Material 034 Bots 044 Datamining Crowds 059 Generative Algorithms For Voice,
In The Report Sound and Video
034 I-Teams For Algorithms and Data 044 Algorithmic Fact Checking
004 Annual Letter 060 Synthetic Influencers
035 Making AI Explain Itself 045 On-Screen Fact Checking
005 Executive Summary 060 Synthetic Environments
036 Real-Time Machine Learning 045 Synthetic Data
006 Methodology 062 Interfaces
036 Natural Language Understanding 045 Synthetic and Generated
007 Use Time Cones, Not Lines (NLU) Content Authentication 063 Optimizing For Voice Search
011 Where Trends Come From 037 Machine Reading Comprehension 046 Recognition Systems 065 Next-Gen Native Video and Audio
(MRC) Story Formats
012 Future Forces Theory: The Ten 048 Faceprints
Macro Sources of Change 037 Natural Language Generation 067 Human-Machine Interfaces
049 Voiceprints
(NLG) 068 Extended Reality
013 Ask Better Questions About Trends 049 Gesture Recognition
037 Real-Time Context in 069 Holograms
014 When to Take Action 049 Personality Recognition
Machine Learning
015 Using Trends To Support Your 070 360-degree Video
038 General Reinforcement 049 Emotional Recognition
Tactical Actions, Strategy and 070 Augmented Reality
Learning Algorithms 050 Affective Computing
Vision
038 Much Faster Deep Learning 071 AR Face Filters to Protect
016 How To Use Our Report 050 Bone Recognition
Individual’s identity
038 Reinforcement Learning 050 Genetic Recognition
017 Foresight Framework: 071 AR as a Tool to Enhance Print
and Hierarchical RL
The Axes of Uncertainty 050 Universal Genetic Databases
038 Continuous Learning 073 Virtual Reality
022 Artificial Intelligence 051 Scoring
038 Multitask Learning 076 Video
030 Proliferation of Franken-algorithms 053 Behavioral Biometrics
039 Generative Adversarial Networks 077 Streamers
030 Proprietary, Open and Homegrown 053 in Scoring Systems
(GANs) 077 Saturation of OTT
AI Languages
039 Automated Machine Learning 053 Piecemeal Norms, Standards Streaming Services
030 Problematic Data Sets and Regulations
(AutoML) 078 Connected TVs
031 Marketplace Consolidation 053 Intentionally Opaque Tracking
039 Customized Machine Learning 078 WebRTC
031 Deep Linking 054 In-Home Tracking
040 AI Used to Catch Cheating 078 Streaming Social Video
032 AI in the Cloud 054 Scoring Vulnerable Populations
040 Algorithms That Target 079 Games and eSports
032 Serverless Computing Vulnerable Populations 054 Surveillance Scoring as a Service
080 eSports
032 AI Chipsets 040 Ongoing Bias In AI 055 Synthetic Media
084 Mixed Reality Arcades
032 Marketplaces For AI Algorithms 041 AI Bias Causes Civil Unrest 058 Speech Synthesis
085 MMOMRGs
033 Ubiquitous Digital Assistants 042 Computational Journalism 059 Modulating Custom Voices
087 Business of Media & Distribution
033 Generating Virtual Environments 043 Computational Image Completion 059 Voice Fraud
From Short Videos and Generation 088 Platforms Forced To Pick Sides
059 Machine Image Completion
033 Machines Performing 044 Automated Versioning 090 Restrictions on Bulk Messaging
Cognitive Work 059 Deep Behaviors and Predictive
044 Natural Language Generation 091 New Interest in America’s
Machine Vision
034 Robotic Process Automation to Modulate Reading Levels Local News Outlets

TABLE OF CONTENTS
092 The Subscription Economy Matures 122 Digital Citizenship 146 Differential Privacy
094 Offline Connections 125 Cryptocurrencies 146 Encrypted Messaging Networks
095 Journalism as a Service 130 Self-Sovereign Identity 146 Safeguarding and Verifying Leaks
096 Pop-Up Newsrooms and 132 Tokenizing Assets 146 Anonymity
Limited-Edition News Products 133 Tokens For Smart Royalties 146 Media Trolls
097 One-To-Few Publishing and Freelancers 147 Authenticity
098 Abusing The Notification Layer 135 Decentralized Content Platforms 147 Data Ownership
099 Digital Frailty 136 Content Provenance 147 Persistent Audio Surveillance
and Permanent Archiving
101 Media Consolidation 147 Blocking the Ad Blockers
137 Security and Privacy
103 Monetizing Chat-Based Journalism 148 Accountability and Trust
138 Data Theft Becomes
104 The End of Attention Metrics 149 Standardized Labeling
Data Manipulation
105 Web 3.0 150 Data Governance
138 Newsroom Targeting
106 Spatial Computing and Retention Policies
138 Automated Fake URLs
107 Digital Twins 150 Strategic Encryption Management
139 Consumer Device Targeting
107 Volumetric Fields of Vision 150 The Rise of Chief Ethics Officers
139 Cyber Risk Insurance
107 Dynamic Light fields 151 Policy and Regulations
139 AI-Powered Automated Hacking
107 Spatial Computing Clouds 152 The First Amendment in a Digital Age
139 Hijacking Internet Traffic
108 Consumer Electronics 153 Splinternets
140 DDoS Attacks Will Increase
110 Smart Cameras 154 Anti-Trust Lawsuits
140 Compliance Challenges
110 Smart Camera News Networks and Unrealistic Budgets 156 Drones, Maps and Satellites
110 Networked Smart Devices 140 Ransomware as a Service 157 MicroSats and CubeSats
111 The End of Remote Control 140 Decentralized Hacktivists 159 Drone Surveillance
111 Smart ER Glasses 140 Targeted Attacks 159 Wide-Area Motion Capturing
111 Hearables / Earables on Voice Interfaces 159 Drones as a Service
111 Smart Watches, Rings and Bracelets 141 Strange Computer Glitches 160 Live Maps
Will Keep Happening
112 Smart Belts and Shoes 161 About The Authors
141 Open Source App Vulnerabilities
112 Connected Clothing 162 About The Future Today Institute
145 GDPR Copycats
113 Neurotechnologies 163 Disclaimer
145 Right To Eavesdrop/
115 Digital Addiction Be Eavesdropped On 164 The Big Nine
116 Blockchain Technologies 145 Defining What Constitutes 165 The Signals are Talking
117 Blockchain Technologies Online Harassment 166 Contact Information

WHERE TRENDS COME FROM
Trends are driven by fundamental shifts in demographics, the Real trends tend to take shape over many years.
economy, technology, politics and social movements. They We use trends to help us see potential oppor-
are new manifestations representing our fundamental human
tunities, challenges and plausible scenarios for
needs. Trends form steadily over many years, and they do not
necessarily follow a linear path. next-order impacts.
Meanwhile trendy phenomena or fads are much more tran- THE FOUR LAWS OF ENTERTAINMENT, MEDIA AND TECH TRENDS
sient. They often appear out of the blue, capture our atten- All trends share a set of four conspicuous, universal features.
tion and distract us with intense possibilities – only to burn
out just as quickly as they arrived. Fads move along a com- • Trends are the convergence of weak signals from the fringe.
mon cycle: insider discovery, trending on social networks, • Trends are driven by basic human needs.
influencer bragging, media hysteria and mainstream accep-
tance, until we are disillusioned because the fads never meet
• Trends evolve as they emerge.
our broader expectations. • Trends are timely, but they persist.
At any moment, there are thousands of small shifts in technology—develop-
TREND VS TRENDY ments on the fringes of science and society—that will impact our lives in the
It isn’t always easy to distinguish between trend and trendy, especially future.
when we’re transitioning between media hysteria and mainstream accep-
tance. But there are many examples. Think Foursquare’s badges (trendy) vs
location-based services (trend), “gamification” (trendy) vs deep optimiza-
tion using our data (trend), and scooters (trendy) vs hyperlocal ride sharing
(trend).
Trends fundamentally shift how we live, work, play and relate to one anoth-
er, and so they should inform strategic planning and a longer-term vision
within media and entertainment. Trendy phenomena might be useful for a The Four Laws of Technology Trends were first published in
quick bump in revenue, consumer awareness or digital traffic, but only the The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Main-
most agile organizations will move fast enough to leverage a fad and pivot stream, by Amy Webb.
away before the inevitable slump hits.

FUTURE FORCES THEORY: THE TEN MACRO SOURCES OF CHANGE
Disruption usually stems from the ten macro sources of change you see below. We use these macro sources to research emerging trends
— and we come back to them when we build our scenarios. We recommend that you consider the future of your field and organization in
relation to these macro sources of change. Technology is not listed because it is what underpins and connects these sources of change
within your industry.
01 02 03 04 05
WEALTH
DISTRIBUTION EDUCATION INFRASTRUCTURE GOVERNMENT GEOPOLITICS
MEDIA &
ECONOMY PUBLIC HEALTH DEMOGRAPHICS ENVIRONMENT TELECOMMUNICATIONS
06 07 08 09 10

ASK BETTER QUESTIONS ABOUT TRENDS
At the Future Today Institute, we always look for ways 01 Who is working directly on 05 Which regulators could be-
to think exponentially. As we research signals and this trend? In this specific come involved in the future?
trends, it’s useful to ask questions that can lead to area? Answers should include
people, teams and organiza-
broader context. We encourage you to ask the following
tions (public and private) that
06 Where does this trend or
specific area intersect with
questions as you think about trends in relation to your are already familiar to you. our addressable markets in
industry and organization. the future?
02 Who is working indirectly on
this trend or area? Include
those who are adjacently
07 Who would be incentivized
to work against this trend or
related as well as those who area? What would they gain if
are currently just theoreti- the trend or area falters?
cal but might be important
actors in the future. Adjacent
example: researchers in a 08 Who would benefit if the
related field. Theoretical ex- advancement of this trend –
ample: future workers born or a new/ unintended use for
in the year 2019. this trend – causes us harm?
03 Who has been funding new

developments and experi-
mentation? Include venture
firms, private equity, angel
investors, foundations, ac-
celerators and governments.
04 Which populations will be

directly affected by advance-
ments – positive and nega-
tive – in the future?

WHEN TO TAKE ACTION
We encourage you to use our annual Future
Today Institute Tech Trends Report as the
High
basis for strategic planning—as long as you
commit to taking incremental action right LEARNING STAGE LISTENING FOR SIGNALS
away. Many organizations prefer to take a As we research and test this new AT THE HORIZON
“wait and see” approach after seeing new technology, what can we learn and Emerging but bona-fide technology and
apply to our organization? What must trends; uncertain trajectory and timeline;
research, and that’s a mistake. We recog-
we do now to keep ahead of the trend? ecosystem forming; market forming.
nize how difficult it is to take risks during a
time of political, technological and econom- SAMPLE ACTION
U NC ERTA IN TY ABOU T T E CH NOLOGY

SAMPLE ACTION
ic uncertainty. Your team must take some Devote an all-hands day to investigating Assign one member of your team to be the
this trend. Invite people from all resident expert on the tech trend. Have
action, even if it’s small, to build momentum
departments within your organization to them send notes to the rest of the team on a
so that you may confront the future on your participate. Bring in outsiders for added regular basis.
own terms. expertise.
“CAN WE DO IT”
For that reason, the Future Today Institute 
created a simple framework for our clients

to help them continually monitor science CAPABILITIES BUILDING STAGE DEVELOPING IDEAS STAGE
and technology developments as they move How can we work to better understand How can we develop a new product
the emerging tech and develop the or service that leverages the
from the fringe to the mainstream. Focus on expertise to act? How do our key technology, even as the market is
taking incremental action often as you think stakeholders and constituents see this still evolving? How can we assess
more exponentially. Incremental actions will trend, and what are their expectations possible risk and implications in a
of us? meaningful way?
position your organization to make smarter
strategic decisions in advance rather than SAMPLE ACTION SAMPLE ACTION
trying to manage crises under duress. Develop and ship a survey to assess how Facilitate a scenarios workshop, with
well positioned your current team is to a goal of identifying probable and
This is our framework, and we encourage address this trend. Determine whether plausible outcomes.
your organization to use it as you read training is necessary.
Low
through our report.
Low U NCE RTAINT Y A B O U T A TR E N D I N TH E M A R K E T High

“DOES THE MARKET WANT IT”

USING TRENDS TO SUPPORT YOUR TACTICAL ACTIONS, STRATEGY & VISION
Our 2020 Entertainment, Media and Technology Trend Report Informing our strategic planning Making future investments
reveals the strategic opportunities and risks confronting your • What connections can we draw • What next-order outcomes can we
organization in the near future. between this research and our envision as this trend evolves over
strategic planning? time?
This report can help prepare your organization for the years ahead and better
position you to see disruption before it fully erupts. We encourage you to use • What are the consequences if our • Where should we invest our resources
organization fails to take action on as this trend evolves?
our report as a tool to identify change, to learn how new technologies might
this trend?
impact your organization in the near future, and as a jumping off point for • Are there opportunities to acquire
meaningful strategic planning. • How might global events—politics, startups, research teams, and those
climate change, economic shifts— at the forefront of this trend?
Of the organizations we advise, we’ve seen the most success from those who
impact this trend, and as a result, our
form a cross-functional team to study our annual Tech Trend Report. It is a Nurturing and growing our
organization?
practical resource for your organization and should influence your strategic customer base
thinking throughout the year. • How does this trend inspire us • How will the wants, needs and
to think about the future of our expectations of our consumers/
RECOMMENDED STRATEGY organization? constituents change as a result of
The best way to make practical use of this year’s report is to ask and this trend?
Leading our industry
answer some fundamental questions about what these trends mean to your
organization in the near future. Don’t discount a trend simply because at first
• How does this trend impact our Supporting my team/ business unit
glance it doesn’t seem to connect directly to you or your field. As you review
industry and all of its parts? • Does this trend signal emerging
the analysis in this report with your cross-functional team, ask and answer the • What uncertainties does this trend disruption to our traditional business
practices and cherished beliefs?
following questions. reveal about our industry/ company/
division? • Does this trend indicate a future
• What new uncertainties—about our disruption to the established roles
and responsibilities within our
industry, organization, customers,
partners—can we now address after organization? If so, how do we
reading this report? backcast that disruption and deal
with it in the present day?
Facilitating better partnerships
• How are the organizations in adjacent • How does this trend help me/ my
team/ my organization think about
spaces addressing this trend? What
innovation?
can we learn from their failures and
best practices? Leading by positive example
• Where does this trend create • How do we leverage this trend

potential new partners or in a positive way for both our
collaborators for us? organizations and the greater good?

HOW TO USE OUR REPORT
EACH TREND OFFERS SIX IMPORTANT DATA POINTS FOR

YOUR ORGANIZATION. 05 06
The Future Today Institute’s 3rd annual Entertainment, Media and Technology
Trends Report prepares organizations for the year ahead so that strategists,
managers and leaders are better positioned to see technological disruption
before it fully erupts. We encourage you to use our report as a tool to identify
change and to learn how new technologies might impact your organization in the
near future. The FTI Report is also a good source of potential new collaborators 01 04
and partners. Most importantly, use our report as a jumping off point for deeper
strategic planning.
03
We recommend using our 2020 Tech Trends

Report as part of a formal strategic foresight 02
process to evaluate disruptive technologies

throughout the year.
01 KEY INSIGHT 03 WHAT’S NEXT 05 YEARS ON THE LIST 06 ACTION METER

Short, easy explanation of this trend What this trend means for you and We’ve noted how many years we’ve An easy-to-read graphic indicating
so that you can internalize it and your organization in the coming year. been tracking the trend in our where the trend is along its trajectory.
discuss with your colleagues. annual Tech Trends Report, which It tells you whether the trend needs
04 WATCHLIST began publication 12 years ago. This monitoring, should inform your
02 EXAMPLES These are the organizations and
measurement is an indication of how strategy, or requires action.
the trend is progressing.
Real-world use cases, some of which stakeholders most deeply involved
will sound familiar. in this trend.

FORESIGHT FRAMEWORK: THE AXES OF UNCERTAINTY
Building models to illuminate our possible futures.
Leaders often make common errors as they make strategic de- 03 Technological progress
cisions about the future: they under-predict or over-predict Our communications and telecommunications infrastructure have always
played a significant role and uncertainties here challenge every organi-
change. The reason? Most of us find uncertainty uncomfortable, zation. (Will 5G be deployed nationwide using a single set of standards?
so we are reluctant to confront it. We can’t solve for future un- Will it be nationalized? Or will individual companies build and maintain the
certainty, but we can prepare ourselves to think critically about infrastructure?) Computer systems – artificial intelligence, cloud-based,
signals and decisions — to understand all the dependencies we genetic – directly influence us all. Access to components, custom chipsets
and training data, will cause an emerging technology to accelerate or
should consider that might impact the future.
decelerate.
These uncertainties are a way of understanding the dynamics shaping the 04 Politics and Activism
future. There are just a few primary drivers that fall into four broad categories. There is no question we’re living through a time of significant political
disruption. Regulation, new rules and legislation, executive orders, interna-
01 Economic shifts
tional treaties and accords and trade agreements all directly and indirectly
These include the macroeconomic trends and forces shaping our economies
impact our futures.
(how will this trade war with China impact your company’s ability to make
widgets?); microeconomic fluctuations (what disruption could upend your All of these drivers fall outside the direct control of just about every organi-
market? What are your known competitors building?); workforce readiness zation. It is possible to influence (or try to quash) new regulation, but even the
(is your current workforce upskilling/ reskilling fast enough? Are schools boldest lobbying efforts aren’t guaranteed. The big tech giants don’t develop
training your future workforce adequately?). the next versions of their hardware and software products by committee;
what they release is what we must all eventually use.
02 Social changes
Demographic and population shifts, migration, access to education and pub- Meanwhile, internally, an organization faces numerous uncertainties: changes
lic health all impact our futures. So do the influence of social media, journal- within key departments or leadership positions; fluctuations of share prices;
ism, marketing campaigns and gaming. Our social values, religious beliefs the success or failure of new business units; legal battles involving patents
and ethics are evolving. and personnel; and whether or not an industry will have the workforce it will
need in the future. These are uncertainties every organization must contend
with, but they are under the direct control of an organization’s leaders.
Investigating those four uncertainties, along with uncertainties about your or-
ganization and industry, is a good way to see your plausible futures in advance
of them actually occurring.

BUILDING YOUR AXES For example

The Future Today Institute’s methodol-
ogy for seeing around corners begins The government passes sweeping The government does not pass
with identifying deep uncertainties. data privacy laws that would affect sweeping data privacy laws, so we
Then, we surface emerging trends, our customer data. can continue collecting and storing
identify commonalities and connec- customer data as usual.
tions between them, map their trajec-
tories over time, describe plausible
outcomes, and ultimately build strategy
to achieve desired outcomes. We begin
Try to be exhaustive in building your lists of uncertainty. A good way to accomplish comprehensive
and end the process with a framework
lists is to include outsiders in this work. Seek those who do not work on your team, in your organi-
called the Axes of Uncertainty. We use
zation and even in your industry.
this framework at the start of all our
foresight research and again as the Next, select two uncertainty statements from different categories and pair them in a 2 x 2 matrix.
basis for writing scenarios.
The goal of every organization should

be to confront these areas of uncer-
tainty as often as possible. One way to Online
do this is using the Axes of Uncertainty grocery
framework. shopping
booms.
First, begin by creating a list of un-
knowns for each of the four categories:
economic issues, social changes, tech- The government passes data The government does not pass
nological progress and political issues. privacy laws that would affect data privacy laws, so we can
When possible, incorporate related our customer data. continue collecting and storing
uncertainties about your organiza- customer data as usual.
tion. Do this using logical statements
present today rather than speculations
about what the world might look like in
the future. Develop those statements Online
as opposites. grocery
shopping
stagnates.

THE MATRIX REVEALS FOUR Now using the statements on each axis endpoint, develop a headline for the four quadrants. De-
PLAUSIBLE FUTURES scribe the outcome for your organization. Typically, one headline will be an opportunity, one will
reveal risk, and two will be neutral for the organization.
Return to Brick and Mortar
If data privacy laws are passed and on-
line grocery shopping stagnates, there Online grocery shopping booms.
is a tremendous opportunity for local
and regional grocery chains to rebuild
their operations. OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY
New Entrants Disrupt the Market Traditional Grocers The Tech Titans Rule
Regain Power If data privacy laws aren’t
If data privacy laws aren’t passed and passed and online grocery
If data privacy laws are passed
online grocery shopping stagnates, the and online grocery shopping shopping booms, the tech
marketplace invites disruption from booms, there is an opportunity giants can leverage our
new entrants who are nimble, free for traditional grocers–espe- personal data to optimize
from legacy systems, and can partner cially those not currently rely- what products are grown,
ing on digital customer data–to manufactured and bought. The govern-
with big tech companies for real-time
The govern- compete against the big tech ment does
tracking, logistics, and autonomous
giants with new, compliant
deliveries. ment passes not pass
e-commerce platforms.
data privacy data privacy
The Tech Titans Rule laws that laws, so we
If data privacy laws aren’t passed and would affect can continue
online grocery shopping booms, the our customer OPPORTUNITY OPPORTUNITY collecting and
tech giants can leverage our personal data. Return to Brick and Mortar New Entrants Disrupt storing cus-
data to optimize what products are If data privacy laws are passed the Market tomer data as
grown, manufactured and bought. and online grocery shopping If data privacy laws aren’t
usual.
stagnates, there is a tremen- passed and online grocery
Traditional Grocers Regain Power dous opportunity for local and shopping stagnates, the
regional grocery chains to marketplace invites disruption
If data privacy laws are passed and on-
rebuild their operations. from new entrants who are
line grocery shopping booms, there is
nimble, free from legacy
an opportunity for traditional grocers– systems, and can partner with
especially those not currently relying big tech companies for real-
on digital customer data–to compete time tracking, logistics, and
against the big tech giants with new, autonomous deliveries.
compliant e-commerce platforms.
Online grocery shopping stagnates.

FROM HEADLINES TO SCENARIOS

Scenario planning originated at the start of the Cold War, in the 1950s. Herman Designate team member Prioritize meaningful
to research the scenario action today; elevate
Kahn, a futurist at the RAND Corporation, was given the job of researching nucle-
to decision makers
ar warfare, and he knew that raw data alone wouldn’t provide enough context for Set criteria for when
military leaders. So instead, he created something new, which he called “scenari- to take action(s)
os.” They would fill in the descriptive detail and narration needed to help those in
charge with creating military strategy understand the plausible outcomes—what H I GH DEGREE O F C ERTAI N TY
could happen, if a certain set of actions were taken. Simultaneously in France, the
futurists Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston Berger developed and used scenarios INFORMS ACT
LO NG E R-TE RM I MPACT
I MME DI ATE I MPACT

STRATEGY NOW
to describe preferred outcomes—what should happen, given the current circum-
stances. Their work forced the military and our elected leaders into, as Kahn put
it, “thinking about the unthinkable” and the aftermath of nuclear war. It was such a REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
successful exercise that their approaches were adopted by other governments and WATCH
companies around the world. The Royal Dutch Shell company popularized scenario LOW DEGREE O F C ERTAI N TY
planning, when it revealed that scenarios had led managers to anticipate the global
energy crisis (1973 and 1979) and the collapse of the market in 1986 and to mitigate Designate team Designate team
risk in advance of their competition. Scenarios are such a powerful tool that Shell member to keep member to keep
still, 45 years later, employs a large, dedicated team researching and writing them. on their radar on their radar
Schedule quarterly Schedule weekly or

Once you and your team have developed several dozen headlines, choose a few for checkins monthly checkins
further exploration as detailed scenarios. We recommend prioritizing your head-
lines based on the data/ evidence you have and your estimated timing of impact.
EMBRACING UNKNOWNS
Given that we cannot know exactly how the future might unfold, what’s the best
way to prepare for change? Reduce uncertainty as much as possible. This means
investigating leading indicators, writing full scenarios that incorporate: all four
categories of uncertainties, details on your particular organization and industry,
and related tech trends.
This is the true power of the Axes and of scenario planning. Acknowledging the
uncertainties that lie before us enables us to confront them head on, to spot both
opportunity and risk, and to rehearse our responses when we still have time to
make corrections.

FTI 2020
TREND REPORT
FOR
ENTERTAINMENT,
MEDIA &
TECHNOLOGY
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
001
PROLIFERATION
OF FRANKEN-
007
SERVERLESS
COMPUTING
012
MACHINES
PERFORMING
017
REAL-TIME
MACHINE
021
REAL-TIME
CONTEXT
026
MULTITASK
LEARNING
031
ALGORITHMS
THAT TARGET
ALGORITHMS COGNITIVE LEARNING IN MACHINE VULNERABLE
008 WORK LEARNING 027 POPULATIONS
002 AI CHIPSETS 018 GENERATIVE
PROPRIETARY, 013 NATURAL 022 ADVERSARIAL 032
OPEN AND
HOMEGROWN AI
009 ROBOTIC
PROCESS
LANGUAGE
UNDERSTANDING
GENERAL
REINFORCEMENT
NETWORKS
(GANS)
ONGOING BIAS
IN AI
MARKETPLACES
LANGUAGES FOR AI AUTOMATION (NLU) LEARNING
ALGORITHMS ALGORITHMS 028 033
003 014 019 AUTOMATED AI BIAS CAUSES
PROBLEMATIC 010 BOTS MACHINE 023 MACHINE CIVIL UNREST
DATA SETS UBIQUITOUS READING MUCH FASTER LEARNING
DIGITAL 015 COMPREHENSION DEEP LEARNING (AUTOML)
004 ASSISTANTS I-TEAMS FOR (MRC)
MARKETPLACE ALGORITHMS 024 029
CONSOLIDATION 011 AND DATA 020 REINFORCEMENT CUSTOMIZED
GENERATING NATURAL LEARNING AND MACHINE
005 VIRTUAL 016 LANGUAGE
GENERATION
HIERARCHICAL RL LEARNING
DEEP LINKING ENVIRONMENTS MAKING AI
FROM SHORT EXPLAIN (NLG) 025 030
006 VIDEOS ITSELF CONTINUOUS
LEARNING
AI USED TO CATCH
CHEATING
AI IN THE CLOUD

H IGH DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
TRENDS 001 - 033 • ELEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
LO N G E R-T ERM IMPACT
IM M E D IAT E IM PACT
STRATEGY NOW
ARTIFICIAL KEEP
INTELLIGENCE
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
KEY INSIGHT AI IN MEDIA the U.S.-based newspaper group that
Artificial Intelligence isn’t a trend AND ENTERTAINMENT once included the Chicago Tribune, Los
Angeles Times, New York Daily News,
itself, but rather the third era of When it comes to AI, many organiza-
and many others. In 2016, Ferro, who
computing. AI connects to everything tions and their leaders have developed
had no hands-on experience working
in entertainment, media and other a misplaced sense of optimism or
with either AI or in managing news-
related technologies. fear. (And sometimes a combination
rooms, promised a digital transforma-
of both.) This is true within media and
Marvin Minsky, a pioneer in artificial tion of the news business via “access to
entertainment.
intelligence, often described AI as a over 100 machine vision and artificial
“suitcase term.” It’s a concept that Those who aren’t steeped in the day- intelligence technology patents for
appears simple enough but is actually to-day research and development of news media applications” that would
Image Credit: DeepMind endlessly complex and packed – like AI can’t see signals clearly, which is “create an interactive and customized
OpenSpiel from DeepMind is a collection of a suitcase – with lots of other ideas, why public debate about AI oscillates user experience.”
environments and algorithms for research concepts, processes and problems. between unbridled optimism and the
This news – that Tronc was teeming
in general reinforcement learning and Many facets of artificial intelligence robot overlords you’ve seen in recent
with AI capabilities – was lauded by
search and planning in games, with tools (AI) have made our list since we first movies. The lack of nuance is one part
media industry blogs and was wel-
to analyze learning dynamics and other started publishing our tech trend of AI’s genesis problem: some dramat-
comed by Tronc’s new board of direc-
common evaluation metrics. reports 13 years ago. Because AI itself ically overestimate the applicability
tors, its shareholders and the com-
isn’t the trend, we have identified of AI in their workplaces, while others
pany’s executive management. After
different themes within AI that you argue it will become an unstoppable
reviewing those patents, we found
should be following. weapon.
that few were directly applicable to the
A terrific example of the perils of AI digital or traditional media business.
groupthink involves Michael Ferro, the Those which did offer some relevant
embattled former chairman of Tronc, ideas had already been superseded by

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS, DATA • Should we explain which datasets
GOVERNANCE AND UPCOMING are being used and under what
CHALLENGES circumstances?
Of course we are seeing AI successfully
applied to augment basic reporting in
• How do we explain what personal
data is being collected and how it
newsrooms around the world. There
is being used? Would we do this to
are many benefits of computer-driven
actually help build trust with our
reporting: AI systems can be required
audience, or merely for compliance?
to import data from lots of sources,
(What are the risks and benefits of
they can uncover patterns in data, and
each?)
they can write and produce stories in
near real-time. • Do we know how reporters are using
algorithms to look for patterns, and
However media and entertainment does that match with our company’s
organizations must position their ethical standards and guidelines?
leaders, managers and staff to work
alongside tools in a responsible way.
• Do we know how producers are using
automated systems to create videos,
Paul Chadwick, The Guardian’s readers’
and does that workflow process
editor, wrote: “software that ‘thinks’
match with our stated values?
is increasingly useful, but it does not
necessarily gather or process infor-
mation ethically. When using Artificial
COMPANIES BUILDING THE
more advanced research at companies Intelligence to augment your journal-
FUTURE OF AI
like Microsoft, Amazon and Magic Leap. ism, consider its compatibility with the There are nine big tech companies—six
values of this code.” American, and three Chinese—that are
AI as some kind of silver bullet with overwhelmingly responsible for the fu-
transformative superpowers is a com- Organizations will soon find themselves ture of artificial intelligence. They are
mon theme among businesses—but it grappling with difficult questions: the G-MAFIA in the US: Google, Ama-
didn’t save Tronc, which laid off staff zon, Microsoft, Apple, IBM and Face-
nationwide, sold off several newspa- • Should we disclose which algorithms book. In China it’s the BAT: Baidu, Alib-
pers, and never quite managed to spin we are using and whether those aba and Tencent. Just nine companies
all those patents into gold. algorithms have shown biases? How are primarily responsible for the
should we disclose this information? overwhelming majority of research,


funding, government involvement and executives are often asked to serve
consumer-grade applications. Univer- on multiple commissions or to engage
sity researchers and labs rely on these in similar efforts across government.
companies for data, tools and funding. Paradoxically, this creates a gap: with
The Big Nine are also responsible for so many groups working either redun-
mergers and acquisitions, funding dantly or even at odds with each other,
AI startups, and supporting the next the U.S. will miss strategic opportuni-
generation of developers. ties to coordinate efforts between the
tech, finance and government sectors
Outside of China, many governments so that significant forward progress
around the world have no grand can be made within a reasonable time-
strategy for AI nor for our longer-term frame.
futures. That includes the United
States, where there are lots of initia- Instead of funding basic research
tives, cells and centers now working into AI, the federal government has
independently on the future of AI. Yet effectively outsourced R&D to the
there is neither inter-agency collabo- commercial sector and the whims of
ration on these efforts, nor is there any Wall Street. Meanwhile, in China, AI’s
coordinated effort to streamline goals, developmental track is tethered to the
outcomes, R&D efforts and funding. grand ambitions of government. Baidu,
Efforts at the National Institute of Tencent, and Alibaba may be publicly
Standards and Technology (NIST), as traded giants, but typical of all large
well as several efforts being undertak- Chinese companies, they must bend
en by various congressional offices, to the will of Beijing. China is quickly
are attempting to define technical laying the groundwork to become the
specifications for AI, while efforts world’s unchallenged AI hegemon.
at the Joint AI Center and National
Security Commission on AI are each The lack of collaboration and conver-
focused on national security and gence on AI’s future should be of im-
defense. On AI planning, the process mediate concern to everyone working
for the National Artificial Intelligence in media and entertainment, because
Research and Development Strategic it means ongoing uncertainty in data
Plan is duplicative of the Nation- governance, privacy, disclosure, trans-
al Security Strategy and National parency and authentication.
Security Commission on AI. Top tech

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
AI: A NON-TECHNICAL PRIMER

FOR ENTERTAINMENT AND MEDIA REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
ORGANIZATIONS LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ington Post’s Heliograf helps it cover Here’s a representative list of ways in
ABOUT AI elections and sporting events. The which AI is being used:
New York Times uses the Perspec-
In its most basic form, artificial intel-
tive API (developed by Jigsaw, whose • Crunching larger data sets
ligence is a system that makes au-
tonomous decisions. AI is a branch of
parent company is Alphabet) to track • Predicting outcomes of discreet
and moderate reader comments. Duke events (elections, sports)
computer science in which computers
are programmed to do things that nor-
University’s Reporter’s Lab built a tool
called ClaimBuster to assist reporters
• Predicting outcomes with more
mally require human intelligence. This variables (which actor to cast in a TV
with fact checking. Many news organi- show)
includes learning, reasoning, problem
zations now use computer vision tools
solving, understanding language and
built by Amazon and Google to help • Finding insights on staff productivity
Elon Musk and Jack Ma debated the future perceiving a situation or environment.
AI is an extremely large, broad field,
them recognize people and objects in • Automating certain reporting and
of artificial intelligence at the annual World photos and videos. writing tasks
which uses its own computer languag-
Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in
Shanghai in August 2019. es and even special kinds of computer Meanwhile, Netflix relies on machine • Streamlining media workflows
networks are modeled from our human learning to personalize user experience
and to help manage workflows. Am-
• Detecting anomalies in photos and
brains. videos
azon deploys AI to help make recom-
mendations for what to watch. Several • Identifying people in photos and
EXAMPLES OF AI BEING USED IN startups are now offering AI-powered videos
NEWS AND ENTERTAINMENT
AI has been used by media and en-
systems that model scenarios during • Generating basic news reports from
the casting process. For example, raw data
tertainment organizations for several
years. Reuters built a product called
would Emma Watson instead of Scar-
lett Johansson help a film perform bet-
• Assisting with fact checking
Lynx Insight to help its journalists find ter, and in which geographic regions • Identifying plagiarism
insights in large data sets. The Wash- would that be true?

The idea that we might someday create Language Processing group at SRI,
• Tracking news on social media and in artificially intelligent, sentient robots while Barbara Groz figured out that the
message boards
was first suggested by prominent phi- field would have to pivot eventually and
• Engaging with and learning from losophers in the mid-1600s. Mathema- take a different approach.
audiences tician Ada Lovelace, in the footnotes Researchers had been working towards
• Determining which shows and of a paper she was translating, posited a functional AI, using the human brain
movies to develop the theory that someday a computer for inspiration, but they didn’t have ac-
might be capable of creative acts—
• Building tools to test for authenticity and to think, just like we humans do.
cess to enough compute power, data or
of social media posts people trained to advance the field. As
Between the 1930s – 1940s, mathema- a result, the field entered what’s known
ticians including Alan Turing, Warren as the “AI winter,” when funding and
THE SHORT STORY OF AI’S VERY McCulloch and Water Pitts published enthusiasm dried up – temporarily.
LONG HISTORY papers that conceptualized neural net-
works, while Vannevar Bush published In the past decade, new commercial
The roots of artificial intelligence a short story called “As We May Think” advancements by the Big Nine — Am-
extend back hundreds of years, long that envisioned intelligent machines azon, Google, Microsoft, Apple, IBM,
before the Big Nine were building AI assisting humans. In the 1950s, Turing Facebook, Baidu, Alibaba and Ten-
agents with names like Siri, Alexa, published another paper, which later cent — have reignited excitement and
and their Chinese counterpart Tiān became known as the Turing Test, funding.
Māo. Throughout that time, there has while Claude Shannon published re- During the summer of 2019, there were
been no singular definition for AI, like search analyzing how computers might several announcements about import-
there is for other technologies. When be programmed to play chess. Comput- ant advancements. One included a new
it comes to AI, describing it concrete- er scientist Grace Hopper pushed that chess algorithm called SentiMATE,
ly isn’t as easy, and that’s because AI idea forward, pioneering early pro- developed by researchers at University
represents many things, even as the gramming languages that were similar College London, mastered chess by
field continues to grow. What passed to spoken English. reading chess game commentaries
as AI in the 1950s—a calculator capable
In 1956, researchers met at Dartmouth, available online. It was able to under-
of long division—hardly seems like an
for what turned out to be a historic stand the basic rules and strategies
advanced piece of technology today.
meeting—and the place where the of chess using language, rather than
This is what’s known in the field as the
term “artificial intelligence” was first game play alone. While SentiMATE
“odd paradox”—as soon as new tech-
coined by John McCarthy. In the 1950s didn’t progress to the level of grand-
niques are invented and move into the
– 1970s, the field exploded. Margaret master, that wasn’t the point: it was a
mainstream, they become invisible to
Masterman and her team at Cambridge demonstration of an AI system using
us. We no longer think of that technol-
designed the first semantic networks. quantitative and qualitative skills to
ogy as AI.
Jane Robinson established the Natural learn something new.


THERE ARE DIFFERENT You could argue that we’ve already AI, NEURAL NETWORKS AND Deep learning is a relatively new branch
CATEGORIES OF AI started to see real-world examples of DEEP NEURAL NETWORKS of machine learning. Programmers
functioning AGI. In 2019 researchers use special deep learning algorithms
There are two kinds of AI—weak (or A neural network is the place where
at DeepMind, a lab owned by the same alongside a corpus of data—typically
“narrow”) and strong (or “general”). The information is sent and received, and a
parent company as Google, made some many terabytes of text, images, videos,
anti-lock brakes in your car, the spam program is the set of meticulous, step-
important discoveries. They’d taught AI speech and the like. Often, these sys-
filter and autocomplete functions in by-step instructions that tell a system
agents to play complex games, like the tems are trained to learn on their own.
your email, the content shown in your precisely what to do so that it will
capture the flag “game mode” inside In practical terms, this means that
Instagram and Facebook feeds, and accomplish a specific task. How you
the video game Quake III. They, like more and more human processes will
the recommendations that pop up on want the computer to get from start to
humans, had learned skills specific to be automated, including the writing of
Netflix are all examples of artificial finish—essentially, a set of rules—is the
the game as well as when and how to software, which computers will soon
narrow intelligence. Maeve and Dolores “algorithm.”
collaborate with other teammates. The start to do themselves.
in Westworld, the Samantha operating A deep neural network is one that has
AI agents had matched human player
system in Her, and the H.A.L. super- many hidden layers. There’s no set
ability using reinforcement learning,
computer from 2001: A Space Odyssey number of layers required to make a
in which machines learn not unlike we
are anthropomorphized representa- network “deep.” Deep neural networks
do—by trial and error. As impressive
tions of artificial general intelligence tend to work better and are more pow-
as this was, nearly two years earlier
(AGI)—but actual AGI doesn’t neces- erful than traditional neural networks
DeepMind announced that its AlphaZe-
sarily require humanlike appearances (which can be recurrent or feedfor-
ro system, had taught itself how to
or voices. Systems capable of general ward).
play chess, shogi (a Japanese version
decision-making and automation out-
of Chess) and Go without any human
side of narrow specialties are AGI.
intervention. AlphaZero quickly be- AI, MACHINE LEARNING AND
Yet there is no single standard that came the strongest player in history for DEEP LEARNING
marks the distinction between weak each game. While we haven’t seen an Machine learning programs run on neu-
and strong AI. This is problematic for anthropomorphic AI walk out of Deep- ral networks and analyze data in order
reporters covering AI developments, Mind’s lab, we should consider these to help computers find new things
and for managers who must make de- projects as part of a long transition without being explicitly programmed
cisions about AI. We would argue that between the narrow AI of today and the where to look. Within the field of AI,
we’ve already started to see real-world strong AI of tomorrow. machine learning is useful because
examples of functioning AGI, even if
it can help computers to predict and
they don’t look like what we’ve seen in
make real-time decisions without hu-
movies and on TV.
man intervention.


FTI has modeled the developments HERITABILITY
of commercial AI products and the
Your PDR could be heritable—a com-
evolution of our PIIs. We believe that
prehensive record passed down to
one eventual outcome of AI is the
and used by your children. This would
emergence of a “personal data record,”
enable an AI system to learn from your
or PDR. This single unifying ledger
family’s health data, which could some-
would pull together all of our PIIs: all
day aid in precision medicine. It could
of the data we create as a result of our
also help track and untangle a family
digital usage (think internet and mobile
member’s finances after their death.
phones), but it would also include other
Heritable PDRs could help families
sources of information: our school
pass down memories of loved ones to
and work histories (diplomas, previ-
next generations.
ous and current employers); our legal
records (marriages, divorces, arrests);
our financial records (home mortgag- PDRS AND CONTENT MEMORIES
es, credit scores, loans, taxes); travel Imagine being able to set permissions
(countries visited, visas); dating history on all of the content you consume –
(online apps); health (electronic health news stories, movies, songs, sporting
records, genetic screening results, events, lectures – and then passing
exercise habits); and shopping history down insights to your children or other
(online retailers, in-store coupon use). loved ones. The content we consume
shapes our worldviews and actions,
PDR OWNERSHIP and a window into that content could
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND help others more deeply understand
Ideally, you would be the owner of your
PERSONAL DATA you, for better or worse.
PDR, it would be fully interoperable be-
At present, we are generating “person- tween systems, and the big tech com-
ally identifiable information,” or PIIs. panies would simply act as custodians.
These are discreet units of data we However, given the lack of enforceable
shed continually as we click from web- norms, standards and guardrails, we
site to website, like videos, share links, believe that in the future your PDRs
and interact with each other playing would be owned and held by one of the
games. big tech companies.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
GENERAL AI TRENDS IN
MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
001 once it is deployed. This has been the fragmentation in the future of the
PROLIFERATION OF FRANKEN- cause of recent stock market glitches AI ecosystem, not unlike our OSX vs
ALGORITHMS and e-commerce website wonkiness. Android, and earlier Mac vs PC camps.
Indeed, it is a challenge for big compa- Businesses will find it increasingly
Algorithms are simply rules that
nies like Facebook, which have billions cost-prohibitive and difficult to switch
define and automate the treatment
of algorithms working together at any between AI frameworks and languages.
of data. They are built using “if this,
given time.
then that” logic that a computer can
003
understand and process. Here’s an
002 PROBLEMATIC DATA SETS
easy example: if a website reader’s IP
PROPRIETARY, OPEN AND In 2018, researchers at MIT revealed
address is based in Chicago, the rules
HOMEGROWN AI LANGUAGES “Norman,” an AI trained to perform
HBO’s Westworld is a dark odyssey follows allow them to enter; if the IP address
is based in London, the rules first Python is a leading language with lots image captioning, a deep learning
the dawn of artificial consciousness.
show a GDPR screen stating privacy of pre-built libraries and frameworks. method of generating a textual de-
and cookie policies. While a single Julia, a language developed by MIT, is scription of an image. They trained
algorithm might be easily described an open-source language that focus- Norman using only the image cap-
and deployed as expected, systems of es on numerical computing. And of tions from a subreddit that’s known
algorithms all working together can course there’s Lisp, created by modern for disturbing content. When Norman
sometimes pose problems. Develop- AI’s foreparent John McCarthy in 1958. was ready, they unleashed him against
ers don’t always know in advance how Companies are starting to build and a similar neural network that’d been
one algorithm will function alongside release their own software packages trained using standard data. They fed
other algorithms. Sometimes, several now, as well as unique programming both systems Rorshach inkblots and
teams of developers are all working languages for AI applications. Uber re- asked them to caption what they saw,
independently on different algorithms leased its own probabilistic program- and the results were striking: where
and data sets and only see their work ming language, Pyro, which it wrote in the standard system saw “a black and
Python. It’s a move that signals likely white photo of a baseball glove,” Nor-
GENERAL AI TRENDS IN MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT cont.

to get authentic data from real people listings showed accurate contact
to train systems, and with new privacy information within its mobile app, but
restrictions going into places which when a customer clicked through they
developers may choose to rely more on were deep-linked through to order on
public – and problematic – data sets. the Grubhub app. Even if customers
bypassed the app and wanted to dial
004 the number, the app instead rout-
MARKETPLACE CONSOLIDATION ed them through a Grubhub-owned
number, which allowed Grubhub to
As much as the AI ecosystem is boom-
categorize the interaction as a “mar-
ing, we’re also seeing consolidation
keting call” and the ability to charge
as the world’s biggest tech companies
restaurants a hefty commission fee.
race to acquire AI startups. In 2018,
There are three kinds of deep links:
there were 18 AI startups with valua-
traditional, deferred and contextual.
tions that exceed $1 billion. Increasing-
Traditional deep links reroute you
ly, startups barely have an opportunity
from one app or site: if you click on a
to mature before getting bought: the
Baltimore Sun link someone posts on
average age at acquisition is 3 years
Twitter, theoretically it should auto-
old. When it comes to the future of AI,
matically open in the Baltimore Sun
we should ask whether consolidation
app, as long as you have it installed.
makes sense for the greater good, and
Deferred deep links either link straight
whether competition—and therefore
to content if the app is installed, or to
man saw “a man murdered by machine access—will eventually be hindered
an app store for you to download the
gun in broad daylight.” In 2019, new as we’ve seen in other fields such as
app first. Contextual deep links offer
pre-trained systems built for natural telecommunications and cable.
much more robust information—they
language generation were released—
take you from site to app, app to site,
and the conversations they learned 005
or app to app, and they can also offer
from were scraped from Reddit and DEEP LINKING
personalized information. This is what
Amazon reviews. This is problematic: Deep mobile linking has been around happened with Yelp and Grubhub,
both Reddit and Amazon commenters since the beginning of smartphones, though the process was purposely
skew white and male, which means and it makes it easier to find and share hidden from consumers.
that their use of language isn’t repre- data across all of the apps in your
sentative of everyone. But it illustrates phone. Deep links are now being used
an ongoing challenge within the devel- in ways that obscure information from
oper community. It is already difficult consumers. In 2019, Yelp restaurant

GENERAL AI TRENDS IN MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT cont.

006 startups to launch their ideas into the speeds and more secure data. Tesla’s plenty of AI projects listed, GitHub
AI IN THE CLOUD marketplace. Amazon’s AWS Lambda new custom AI chip, while less impres- now has some competition. Big tech
lets teams run code for virtually any sive than originally described, was companies, startups and communities
Corporate leaders within the AI eco-
type of application or backend service revealed in April 2019. Google’s Tensor of developers are all offering up their
system have been racing to capture
— without provisioning or managing Processing Unit (or TPU was specifi- algorithms in emerging algorithm mar-
AI cloudshare—and to become the
servers, or hands-on administration. cally built for the deep learning branch ketplaces. Amazon, IBM, Microsoft,
trusted provider of AI on remote serv-
Microsoft’s Functions architecture for of AI. It is designed to work with the Google, Baidu and Alibaba all offer
ers. Because the more data a machine
Azure supports myriad programming company’s TensorFlow system. For pre-built and customizable systems.
learning system has access to, the
languages, scales on demand and only reference, TPUs are what was used in AWS hosts its own marketplace, offer-
better decisions it will learn to make
charges for active compute time. This the famous AlphaGo match between ing models and algorithms for com-
over time, enterprise customers are
isn’t sitting well with some engineers, the DeepMind system and a world Go puter vision, speech recognition, and
likely to stick with their initial vendor.
though, who are worried about losing champion. text — and its base of sellers includes
For that reason, the race is on. In the
control. While marketing pre-trained chips to Intel, CloudSight, Optpace and many
West, the field is led by Amazon, Mic-
businesses will speed up commer- others. (Think of AWS Marketplace as
rosoft and Google, followed by compa-
008 cialization and as a result will further an Amazon for algorithms and models.)
nies including Apple, IBM, Salesforce,
AI CHIPSETS R&D, the challenge, of course, is that GenesisAI offers a marketplace for
SAP and Oracle. In Asian markets, the
The standard CPUs found in our developers might need to wrestle with AI products and services. Algorith-
AI cloud is dominated by Alibaba and
desktops, laptops, tablets and mobile different frameworks in the near-fu- mia is a general open marketplace
Baidu. It’s a $250 billion industry and
phones have certainly gotten pow- ture, especially if the various device for algorithms where developers can
quickly growing. NYU Stern School of
erful—but they’re not really designed manufacturers all decide to start cre- upload their work to the cloud and
Business professor Arun Sundararajan
to meet the demands of machine ating unique protocols. We anticipate receive payment when others pay to
says it best: “The prize will be to be-
learning. The problem with our current an eventual convergence, pitting just access it. Quantiacs allows developers
come the operating system of the next
CPUs is that they don’t have enough a few companies—and their SoCs and to build algorithmic trading systems,
era of tech.” Entertainment and Media
processing units to make all the con- languages—against each other. and it matches their algorithms up
companies will find more options to
nections and computations required with capital from institutional in-
use AI in the cloud in the coming years.
in the next era of computing. Enter 009 vestors. Nuance is a storefront of AI
MARKETPLACES FOR AI algorithms in medical imaging, while
007 a suite of new processors found on a
its AI MarketPlace allows users to try
SERVERLESS COMPUTING SoC—“system on a chip.” Huawei, Ap- ALGORITHMS
out algorithms before they buy them.
ple, Alphabet, IBM, NVIDIA, Intel and GitHub (acquired in 2018 by Microsoft
Amazon Web Services, Alibaba Cloud, PrecisionHawk hosts a marketplace
Qualcomm are all working new sys- for $7.5 billion) is a popular develop-
Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud, for predictive agriculture algorithms
tems architecture and SoCs, and some ment platform allowing anyone to host
Baidu Cloud are all rolling out new and models. Bonseyes is a Europe-
come pre-trained. In short, this means and review code, collaborate with
offerings and packages for devel- an-specific marketplace to buy and
that the chips are ready to work on AI other developers, and build all kinds
opers, hoping to make it easier and sell AI tools. Look for even more gen-
projects and should promise better of projects. While anyone can find
more affordable for a wide swath of AI eral purpose, cloud-specific and niche
marketplaces in 2020.
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
AI TRENDS IN CONTENT
DEVELOPMENT REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
010 harness DAs to both surface and deliver planning simulations, even testing
UBIQUITOUS DIGITAL critical information. customer flow scenarios within amuse-
ASSISTANTS ment parks and shopping centers.
011
Digital Assistants (DAs)—like Siri, Alexa,
GENERATING VIRTUAL 012
and their Chinese counterpart Tiān Māo
ENVIRONMENTS FROM SHORT MACHINES PERFORMING
— use semantic and natural language
VIDEOS COGNITIVE WORK
processing, along with our data, in
order to anticipate what we want or Chip designer Nvidia is teaching AI to Companies are no longer just relying on
need to do next, sometimes before we build realistic 3D environments from AI systems to perform tedious, repet-
even know to ask. In 2017, FTI’s model short video clips. The method builds itive tasks. More advanced systems
Photo credit: Xinhua projected that nearly half of Americans on previous research on generative are helping to optimize workflows and
would own and use a digital assistant by adversarial networks (GANs). Nvidia generate strategy. Which means that
Pony Ma Huateng, the founder, chairman system generated graphics taken from people aren’t exactly being replaced
the year 2020, and our model continues
and chief executive of Tencent Holdings, open-source data sets are used by the by robots; rather, they’re being made
to track in that direction. Amazon and
delivers a keynote speech at a forum of the autonomous driving field. Using short to resemble them. From warehouses
Google dominate the smart speaker
World Artificial Intelligence Conference in clips segmented into various catego- to audit firms, AI systems are starting
market, but digital assistants can be
Shanghai in 2018. ries (buildings, sky, vehicles, signs, to perform cognitive tasks – and in the
found in many places. There are now
thousands of applications and gadgets trees, people) the GAN was trained process, they’ve relegated the mun-
that track and respond to DAs. News to generate new, different versions dane work to humans. Amazon’s auto-
organizations, entertainment compa- of these objects. Future applications mated systems are helping reduce inef-
nies, marketers, credit card companies, of automatically-generated virtual ficiencies in its warehouses, directing
banks, local government agencies environments are vast: think training employees in certain functions of their
(police, highway administration), po- environments for logistics (warehous- jobs. Walmart uses computer vision to
litical campaigns and many others can es, factories, shipping centers), urban find overripe produce, and its AI system

AI TRENDS IN CONTENT DEVELOPMENT cont.

pings humans who simply remove bad 014 and national laws, especially if conver-
apples from the pile. In a newsroom BOTS sational bots like Duplex reach critical
setting, similar systems could be a pos- mass within the marketplace.
The term “bot” has become part of our
itive outcome, helping reporters to sift
mainstream vocabulary, and you can
through very large data sets to look for 015
expect to hear more about them as
anomalies or to identify people. I-TEAMS FOR ALGORITHMS
America heads into its 2020 election
AND DATA
season. Bots at the most basic level
013 In 2019, The Markup launched. Found-
are software applications designed to
ROBOTIC PROCESS AUTOMATION ed by former journalists from investi-
automate a specified task. They can
Robotic Process Automation (RPA) en- be text or audio-based, and deployed gative news site ProPublica, The Wall
ables businesses to automate certain across various platforms. News bots Street Journal, public radio’s Market-
tasks and processes within offices, can help aggregate and automati- place and National Public Radio and
which allow employees to spend time cally alert a user about a specified funded by the Craig Newmark Philan-
on higher-value work. Google’s Duplex, event, whereas productivity bots are thropies, the Knight Foundation,
which is a bot designed to make routine tools companies use to automate and the Ford Foundation, the MacArthur
phone calls to other people, is an exam- streamline their day-to-day operations. Foundation, Open Society Founda-
ple of an RPA. Amazon uses RPA to sift The next big advancement in bots tions and the Ethics and Governance
through resumes before prioritizing top won’t be technical in nature—it will be of Artificial Intelligence Initiative, The
candidates for review. In banking, Blue regulatory. During 2018’s campaign Markup explores the societal impact
Prism and Automation Anyware help cycles, we saw a resurgence of bot- of big tech and algorithms, and it plans
staff process repetitive work. RPA will nets—networks of computers designed to release tools to help others inves-
eventually augment staff and shift their to send out misleading content. That, tigate how data is being used by third
productivity into higher gear. This will coupled with concerns that bots are parties. With the increased use of data
allow media and entertainment compa- increasingly leading to deception, led to and algorithms powering our everyday
nies to make better real-time predictive a new law in California that requires bot lives, special-ops teams are deploying
decisions in a host of different areas, to disclose that they are not humans to investigate algorithms and the com-
from customer service to cost savings. in their interactions with people. The panies using them. But this work is of-
law went into effect on July 1, 2019 and ten challenging, as it requires special-
requires the disclosure to be “clear, ized knowledge and experience. News
conspicuous, and reasonably designed organizations will need to train their
to inform persons with whom the bot reporters to broaden their techniques.
communicates or interacts that it is a As technology advances, transparency
bot.” The success of this new regulation in our systems grows murkier. Under-
could become the basis for other state standing where information comes

AI TRENDS IN CONTENT DEVELOPMENT cont.

from, how it spreads, and the impact it to simultaneously explain their deci-
has—not to mention the outcomes of sion-making process could degrade
algorithmic decision-making—requires the speed and quality of output. Imag-
a special skills set. Investigating algo- ine sitting beside a genius mathema-
rithms has never been more important tician who gives you correct answers—
than it is now. and then asking her to stop and show
her work, over and over again.
016
MAKING AI EXPLAIN ITSELF
You’ve undoubtedly heard someone
argue that AI is becoming a “black
box”—even those researchers work-
ing in the field don’t understand how
our newest systems work. That’s not
entirely true, however there is growing
concern voiced by computer scien-
tists, journalists and legal scholars
who argue that AI systems shouldn’t
be so secretive. In August 2019, IBM
Research launched AI Explainability
360, an open-source toolkit of algo-
rithms that support explainability of
machine learning models. It’s open
source so that other researchers can
build on and explain models that are
more transparent. This isn’t a pana-
cea – there are only a few algorithms
in the toolkit – but it’s a public attempt
to quantify and measure explainability.
Broadly speaking, there are a few chal-
lenges that will need to be overcome:
requiring transparency in AI could
reveal a company’s trade secrets.
Another challenge: asking the systems

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
AI TRENDS IN PROCESSES,
SYSTEMS AND COMPUTATIONAL REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
NEUROSCIENCE LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
017 advertising. This could mean better that “there” means “Cinemark Theater.”
REAL-TIME MACHINE LEARNING content recommendations using many In technical terms, this process is
different sources of data. For example, called “slot carryover,” and it uses syn-
Machine learning describes a system
instead of using historic data alone tactic context to understand what our
that uses algorithms to analyze big data
(Customer #1234 likes shows written pronouns mean. The process works,
sets in order to perform a wide array
by Phoebe Waller-Bridge), real-time unless we speak in complex sentences
of tasks better than we can. Over time,
preferences would add context to the with many different pronouns. The fact
the system gets better at those tasks.
recommendation (In the next three days is that in real conversation most of us
It learns, even though we might not de-
Customer #1234 might watch a show are messy talkers. We start and stop
scribe it as “intelligent.” One challenge
written by Phoebe Waller-Bridge that sentences without warning, we misuse
Researchers at the Skolkovo Institute of for machines has always been efficien-
also stars Andrew Scott.) words, and sometimes we just allow
Science and Technology and the Samsung cy, since until recently systems had to
our tone to convey something we don’t
AI Center made living deepfakes. The Mona stop, pull and parse data. New research
018 want to say in actual words. We tend to
Lisa moved her head and Rasputin sang into real-time machine learning shows
NATURAL LANGUAGE speak in unstructured text.
“Halo” by Beyonce. that it’s possible to use a continual flow
UNDERSTANDING (NLU) One of the things that makes reference
of transactional data and adjust models
in real-time. This signals a big change Getting machines to understand exactly resolution especially complicated
in how data moves, and in how we what or who someone is referring to for a large AI system like Alexa is that
retrieve information. For example, re- has been a challenge for conversational different Alexa services use different
al-time machine learning makes it pos- AI systems like Siri and Alexa. At best, names — or slots — for the same data.
sible to translate speech automatically, the systems are trained to reference A movie-finding service, for instance,
even as multiple languages are spoken. the last pronoun spoken. If a consumer might tag location data with the slot
It can be used to improve classification asks “What time is The Lion King playing name Theater_Location, while a restau-
and predictions, promising personal- at Cinemark Theater” and follows with rant-finding service might use the slot
ized entertainment offerings and better “parking near there,” the system infers name Landmark_Address. Over the

AI TRENDS IN PROCESSES, SYSTEMS AND COMPUTATIONAL NEUROSCIENCE cont.

course of a conversation, Alexa has would be easier if you had a computer data. Arria NLG, IBM Watson Text-to-
to determine which slots used by one read all of the technical documenta- Speech, Amazon Polly, Google Cloud
service should inherit data from which tion for you and suggest likely fixes. Or, Text-to-Speech, Narrative Science
slots used by another. NLU allows better yet, let the machines figure out and Automated Insights build narra-
researchers to quantify and learn from what’s wrong on their own, by making all tives out of big data sets and to help
all of that text by extracting concepts, technical manuals and documentation non-data science people make better
mapping relationships and analyzing available to them for reading and anal- sense of what’s happening within their
emotion. In 2019, Amazon research ysis. That’s the promise of MRC. MRC organizations. NLG has myriad use cas-
scientists made some impressive isn’t focused on keywords alone. In the es across professional fields, assisting
advancements in NLU, unveiling new future, a trained MRC system could be lawyers, politicians, doctors, consul-
architectures that helped Alexa un- transferred to different domains where tants, financial analysts, marketers and
derstand people better, even when we no human has created labels or even beyond, who will soon incorporate our
don’t talk in complete sentences. a standard taxonomy. MRC is a neces- personal information as data points for
sary step in realizing artificial general narratives.
019 intelligence, but in the near-term it
MACHINE READING could potentially turn everything from 021
COMPREHENSION (MRC) technical manuals to historical maps to REAL-TIME CONTEXT IN
For AI researchers, machine reading our medical records into easily search- MACHINE LEARNING
comprehension has been a challenging able repositories of information. The world is awash with information,
goal, but an important one. MRC makes misinformation, and superficial think-
it possible for systems to read, infer 020 ing. After a few years of private testing,
meaning, and immediately deliver an- NATURAL LANGUAGE IBM’s Project Debater was revealed to
swers while sifting through enormous GENERATION (NLG) the public in 2018, and it is an example
data sets. One practical application on Large news organizations are already of how context can be used in real-time
the consumer side: if you perform a familiar with NLG platforms, whose learning systems. The platform was
search query, wouldn’t you rather have algorithms can rewrite structured data designed to help people practice their
a system offer you a precise answer into a narrative. NLG is important for reasoning, develop well-informed argu-
than just a list of URLs where you can a number of fields, including retail, ments, and reach reliable conclusions.
go to hunt down more specifics—even finance and media. In 2019, NLG moved It digests massive texts, constructs a
showing you where, on the page, that from a fringe area of research to a well-structured speech on a given top-
information comes from? If you are an mainstream component of business ic, delivers it with clarity and purpose,
airline mechanic and you’re trying to intelligence and analytics platforms. and rebuts its opponent. Debater is just
troubleshoot a tricky engine problem NLG systems automatically detect, one example of emerging systems that
without further delaying a flight, it parse, visualize and then narrate key are capable of learning in real-time and
using real-world context.

022 processes will be automated, including a very long time horizon. In 2020 and 026
GENERAL REINFORCEMENT the writing of software, which comput- beyond, researchers will try to solve MULTITASK LEARNING
LEARNING ALGORITHMS ers will soon start to do themselves. DL those problems using Hierarchical
If you watched the original Karate
has been hampered by the processing Reinforcement Learning—that discov-
Researchers are developing single Kid movie, you’ll remember Mr. Miyagi
power of computer networks. Just a ers high-level actions and work through
algorithms that can learn multiple promising to teach Daniel karate—and
few years ago, it would take a month learning challenges methodically, in
tasks. The team behind AlphaGo, which Daniel getting frustrated with days of
or longer to train an image recognition order to master new tasks at speeds we
learned how to play Go as well as a painting fences, sanding floors and
model on the ImageNet dataset. Today, humans can’t imagine. This is important
human grandmaster, has developed an “wax on, wax off.” To Daniel, none of
with more advanced equipment, Face- for non-techies, too: RL will improve
innovative new algorithm: AlphaZero. these activities seemed related, and
book can do the same in under an hour. the “intelligence” in our AI systems,
It is capable of achieving superhuman they certainly didn’t appear to help
As computers become faster—and as helping cars learn to drive in unusual
performance not only in Go, but in other him with his stated objective: to learn
hardware architecture evolves—our conditions and helping military drones
games as well, including chess and karate. Of course, it turns out that all
systems will perform tasks at super-hu- perform complicated maneuvers that
shogi (Japanese chess). This one algo- of these chores were indeed connect-
man speeds. have never been attempted before in
rithm starts with no knowledge except ed, and Daniel’s repetitive learning is
the physical world.
for the rules of the game and eventually what helped him become a formidable
024
develops its own strategies to beat karate champion. Researchers are now
REINFORCEMENT LEARNING 025
other players. training systems to learn like Daniel.
AND HIERARCHICAL RL CONTINUOUS LEARNING
When developers use Machine Learn-
023 Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a At the moment, deep learning tech- ing, they are doing so to try and solve
MUCH FASTER DEEP LEARNING powerful tool for sorting out deci- niques have helped systems learn to for a particular task or problem. They
sion-making problems, and it’s being solve complex tasks that more closely supervise the system, fine-tuning it and
Deep Learning (DL) is a relatively new
used to train AI systems to achieve matches what humans can do—but making adjustments until the models
branch of machine learning, and it
super-human capabilities. Inside of a those tasks are still specific, such as perform works as desired. But focus-
will soon be an invisible part of every
computer simulation, a system tries, beating a human at a game. And they ing only on a single task often leads to
organization. Programmers use special
fails, learns, experiments and then tries require a rigid sequence: gather data, inefficiencies—perhaps there’s a better
deep learning algorithms alongside a
again—in rapid succession, altering its determine the goal, deploy an algo- solution to the problem than the meth-
corpus of data—typically many tera-
future attempts each time. It’s because rithm. This process requires humans od developed by the researcher. A new
bytes of text, images, videos, speech
of RL that AlphaGo, a computer devel- and can be time-consuming, especially area of research—multitask learning—
and the like. The system is trained to
oped by DeepMind (part of Alphabet) during early phases when supervised helps systems learn more like Daniel,
learn on its own. While conceptually,
learned how to beat the greatest Go training is required. Continuous Learn- exploiting the relationships between
deep learning isn’t new, what’s changed
players in the world. One problem with ing (CL) is more about autonomous and various, related tasks in order to solve
recently is the amount of compute
RL: agents have difficulty when they incremental skill building and devel- problems better.
power and the volume of data that’s
don’t have enough supervision, or when opment, and researchers will continue
become available. In practical terms,
they’re objective is to run scenarios for pushing the limits of what’s possible.
this means that more and more human


027 028
GENERATIVE ADVERSARIAL AUTOMATED MACHINE LEARNING
NETWORKS (GANS) (AUTOML)
Deepfakes have been all over the Some organizations are hoping to
news in 2019, and they’re easy to make move away from the current time-con-
because of generative adversarial suming, difficult traditional machine
networks, or GANs. Think of a GAN as learning methods, which require data
the Turing test but without any humans scientists, specialists in AI fields, and
involved. GANs are unsupervised deep engineers. Automated machine learn-
learning systems comprised of two ing, or AutoML, is a new approach: a
competing neural networks trained on process in which raw data and models
the same data—such as images of peo- are matched together to reveal the
ple. For example, the first one creates most relevant information. There are
photos of a woman that seem realis- now a host of AutoML products and
tic, while the second AI compares the services offered by Google, Amazon
generated photos with photos of real and Microsoft.
women. Based on the judgment of the
second AI, the first one goes back and 029
makes tweaks to its process. This hap- CUSTOMIZED MACHINE
pens again and again, until the first AI LEARNING
is automatically generating all kinds of Soon, individual users will be able
images of a woman that looks entirely to upload their own data to custom-
realistic. This technology is what un- ize existing models. Google’s Cloud
derpins the website thispersondoesno- AutoML is a suite of machine learning
texist.com, which continuously gener- tools that allows organizations without
ates realistic-looking photos of people highly-trained staff to train custom
who – as you might expect – do not machine learning models.
actually exist. GANs are being used to
bring lifelike motion to old photos and
even paintings. This year, researchers
at the Skolkovo Institute of Science
and Technology and the Samsung AI
Center made living deepfakes. The
Mona Lisa moved her head and Raspu-
tin sang “Halo” by Beyonce.
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
AI TRENDS IN SOCIETY REVISIT KEEP

LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
030 the Facial Recognition Verification been running since at least 2016 with
AI USED TO CATCH CHEATING Testing program, the gold standard images of “children who range in age
test for facial recognition technology. from infant through adolescent” and
Tools are being developed to help catch
Researchers Nikki Stevens, OS Keyes the majority of which “feature coercion,
cheaters. Crosscheq is a machine
and Jacqueline Wernimont used pub- abuse, and sexual activity,” according to
learning and data analytics system that
licly-released documents and materials the program’s own developer documen-
looks for hyperbole and misleading
obtained through the Freedom of Infor- tation. These images are considered
information during the hiring process.
mation Act to audit where the program particularly challenging for the soft-
Drexel University researchers are
gets its training data. They found that ware because of the greater variability
working on a public health system that
it depends on images of children who of position, context, and more. The
uses biometrics to predict when dieters
have been exploited for child pornog- Multiple Encounter Dataset, in use
Former employees of China’s Baidu have are likely to stray from their prescribed
raphy; U.S. visa applicants, especially since 2010, contains mug shots, notably
raised hundreds of millions of dollars in regimen. Researchers at the University
those from Mexico; and people who taken before anyone has been convict-
investment for various AI products and ser- of Copenhagen have developed a ma-
have been arrested and are now de- ed of a crime, and deceased persons
vices that work with the Baidu ecosystem. chine learning system to spot cheating
ceased. Additional images are drawn supplied by the FBI. It reproduces racial
on essays with, they say, a 90% accura-
from a Department of Homeland Secu- disparities that are well-known in the
cy rate.
rity scenario in which DHS staff sim- U.S. legal system.
ulated regular traveler-image capture
031 for the purposes of testing. The use of 032
ALGORITHMS THAT TARGET these image databases in not a recent ONGOING BIAS IN AI
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS development. The Child Exploitation That AI has a serious bias problem is no
The National Institute of Standards Image Analytics program—which is secret. The problem is multifaceted.
and Technology, a part of the U.S. a data set for testing by facial recog- Just one example: the data sets used
Department of Commerce, maintains nition technology developers—has for training often comes from places

https://slate.com/technology/2019/03/facial-recognition-nist-verification-testing-data-sets-children-immigrants-consent.html 40
AI TRENDS IN SOCIETY cont.

like Reddit, Amazon reviews and Wiki- the wrong side of the algorithm and
pedia, which itself is riddled with bias. discover you’re ineligible for a loan, or a
The people building models tend to be particular medication, or the ability to
homogeneous and aren’t often aware of rent an apartment, for reasons that ar-
their own biases. As our computer sys- en’t transparent or easy to understand.
tems become more adapt at making de- Increasingly, data is being harvested
cisions, we may find ourselves sorted by and sold to third parties without your
algorithms into groups that don’t make knowledge.
any obvious sense to us—but which
could have massive repercussions.
033
AI BIAS CAUSES CIVIL UNREST
Every single day, you are creating
unimaginable amounts of data, both
actively (uploading and tagging photos
on Facebook) and passively (driving to
work). Those data are mined and used,
often without your direct knowledge or
understanding, by algorithms. It is used
to create advertising, to help poten-
tial employers predict our behaviors,
to determine our mortgage rates and
even to help law enforcement predict
whether or not we’re likely to commit
a crime. Researchers at a number of
universities—including the University
of Maryland, Columbia University, Car-
negie Mellon, MIT, Princeton, Universi-
ty of California-Berkeley, International
Computer Science Institute, among
others—are studying the side effects
of automatic decision-making. You, or
someone you know, could wind up on

034 037 040
COMPUTATIONAL DATAMINING SYNTHETIC DATA
IMAGE CROWDS
COMPLETION AND
041
GENERATION
038 SYNTHETIC AND
035
ALGORITHMIC GENERATED
FACT CHECKING CONTENT
AUTOMATED AUTHENTICATION
VERSIONING
039
036
ON-SCREEN FACT
CHECKING
NATURAL
LANGUAGE
GENERATION
TO MODULATE
READING LEVELS
COMPUTATIONAL
JOURNALISM
TRENDS 034 - 041 • FIFTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
COMPUTATIONAL KEEP
JOURNALISM
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT COMPUTATIONAL JOURNALISM Computational journalism skills
What are the ways in which data and SKILLS include:
algorithms can enhance reporting? Us- It’s one thing to find and mine public • Text analysis
ing computational methods to uncover
stories that would otherwise go untold.
data—analyzing what’s there, and con-
necting the seemingly unconnectable
• Working with high dimensional data
CS techniques can help journalism in dots, is another challenge entirely. • Filter design
two main ways: using computation to Computational journalism techniques • Statistical inference and
do journalism, and doing journalism such as multi-language indexing, au- measurement
about computation. tomated reporting, entity extraction,
algorithmic visualization, multidimen-
• Understanding randomness and
In July 2019, the Washington Post significance
sional analysis of data sets, flexible
The California Civic Data Coalition is a
loosely coupled team from the Los Angeles
launched an elections engineering
team, which build a computation polit- data scraping, are allowing journalists • Network analysis
Times Data Desk, the San Francisco Chron- ical journalism R&D lab and launched to combine what they find in the data • Data visualization
and then see the connections between
icle, The Center for Investigative Reporting experiments to support the Post’s data
facts, keywords and concepts. In this
• Understanding algorithmic
and Stanford’s Computational Journalism efforts in advance of the 2020 elec- discrimination and accountability
Lab. tion. Stanford University’s Computa- way, they can reveal interconnected
relationships between people and
tional Journalism Lab has been devel-
organizations that they might not have
034
oping new computational approaches
otherwise seen.
COMPUTATIONAL IMAGE
for public affairs journalism. COMPLETION AND GENERATION
Everyone with a smartphone now has
access to computational photography
tools. They open closed eyes in group
photos, search for the best frame

COMPUTATIONAL JOURNALISM cont.

when someone is in motion and clear an algorithm. With more experiments economics classes, for beginning follows us around, it’s often available
away blemishes from our selfies – all underway, we expect to see news and English as a second language learners, for anyone to search, collect and
in real time without the need for photo entertainment media companies de- and for MBA students in non-English analyze. We anticipate that more news
editing apps. We can now seamless- veloping multiple versions of the same speaking countries. Similarly, NLG organizations—as well as marketers,
ly add or remove objects to scenes, content to reach wider audiences or to could be used to automate the current activists and other groups—will start
change shadows and reflections, and produce massive amounts of content work-intensive process to create book harnessing data in creative ways.
more. Clearly there are ethical im- at scale. extracts and summaries. Using NLG That’s because our thinking results in
plications here for journalists—how to custom-write different version of behavior (like searching for “what is
much editing should be allowed and 036 stories enables organizations to scale the EU?”). Our behavior results in data.
under what circumstances? Likewise, NATURAL LANGUAGE their operations for new audiences And that data can be used to learn
journalists should develop techniques GENERATION TO MODULATE worldwide—without hiring additional something about us.
to reveal how much editing has been READING LEVELS staff. But NLG underpins deepfakes,
done to a photo—either intentionally or
Natural Language Generation (NLG) is which could mean regulation in the 038
automatically—before using them for
a processing task, where computers year ahead. ALGORITHMIC FACT CHECKING
reporting or in stories.
generate the kind of language humans Misleading and outright false informa-
would use in a designated situation. 037 tion has polluted the internet and our
035 NLG can be used to rewrite content for DATAMINING CROWDS social media channels, and everyday
AUTOMATED VERSIONING a variety of different reading levels, Computational journalism techniques consumers are struggling to cope.
Journalists at Switzerland-based Ta- offering tremendous possibilities allow journalists to query our passive While we’ve seen tremendous global
media experimented with generative for book publishers and news media data—our mobile and online activity, efforts to fact check various govern-
techniques during their country’s 2018 companies alike. As book publishers our public health records, our loca- mental officials, algorithms designed
election. A decision-tree algorithm and news organizations search for new tions—to learn or understand some- to propagate lies are able to work
Tamedia named “Tobi” generated au- revenue streams, NLG will be used thing new. Well after citizens in the faster than human fact checkers. Re-
tomated articles detailing vote results not just to write stories—but to create U.K. voted to Brexit, they continued to searchers at the University of Texas at
for each of the municipalities cov- different versions for audiences with Google “What is the EU” and “What is Arlington and Google have been work-
ered by the private media group’s 30 varying reading skills. That’s because Brexit.” In the nearly three years after ing on automated techniques using
newspapers, and it produced content the basic corpus—the data that makes the initial vote, this passive data has frame semantics. A frame is a sche-
simultaneously in multiple languages. up the story—wouldn’t change, but the continued to tell an interesting story. matic that describes a particular kind
In total, Tobi generated 39,996 differ- vocabulary and amount of detail could This is just one example of what we’re of event, situation, object, or relation
ent versions of elections stories aver- be adjusted. For example, a single sto- now able to learn from the crowd by along with its participants. Research-
aging 250 words long and published to ry about the results of Berkshire Ha- monitoring various networks. Our ers extended a system called FrameNet
Tamedia’s online platforms. Each story thaway’s quarterly earnings could be smartphone ownership has reached to include new frames built specifically
carried a special byline alerting read- rendered in many different ways: for critical mass, and so has our use of for automated fact checking.
ers that the story had been written by finance professionals, for high school various networks. Our data not only

COMPUTATIONAL JOURNALISM cont.

039 develop multivariate models for any hope is that this tool can be deployed
ON-SCREEN FACT CHECKING number of purposes. In their testing, to identify fake or misleading news,
the synthetic data gave the same re- content generated by bots, and some-
Researchers at Duke University and
sults as real data—without compromis- day deepfakes.
University of Texas at Arlington built
ing privacy. Synthetic data sets hold
ClaimBuster, which scores factual
promise for lots of applications and
claims made in any sentence said
organizations, ranging from retail to
aloud. The system uses the audio
healthcare to the federal government.
or video stream from a live event,
While some researchers argue that
converts it to text, applies filters to
synthetic datasets aren’t useful be-
identify claims presented as facts, and
yond testing algorithms and computer
then matches those claims against a
models, the push to commercialize AI
database.
products could mean more reliance on
synthetic data. Journalists will need
040 to be aware of when synthetic data are
SYNTHETIC DATA being used and news organizations
Complete health, medical, transit should develop ethical guidelines cov-
and population data sets are not ering when to use synthetic data and
always available (or in a usable form) how to inform consumers.
to researchers. As a result, some are
developing and experimenting with 041
synthetic data sets to perform mean- SYNTHETIC AND GENERATED
ingful analyses and train models in CONTENT AUTHENTICATION
AI. But synthetic data sets often miss
AI can be used to spot text written by
important information or reflect bias.
algorithms rather than humans. Re-
Researchers from the Data to AI Lab
searchers from Harvard University and
at the MIT Laboratory for Information
the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab developed
and Decision Systems are developing
a tool for recognizing when text has
a machine learning system to auto-
been algorithmically generated. The
matically create synthetic data, which
Giant Language model Test Room, or
could then be used to develop and test
GLTR for short, uses AI to suss out
data science algorithms and models.
common patterns in text and can tell
They propose a Synthetic Data Vault,
if sentences seem too predictable to
which would be able to learn and
have been written by a real person. The

RECOGNITION
SYSTEMS
042 046 049
FACEPRINTS EMOTIONAL GENETIC
RECOGNITION RECOGNITION
043 047 050

VOICEPRINTS
AFFECTIVE UNIVERSAL
044
COMPUTING GENETIC
DATABASES
GESTURE
RECOGNITION
048
BONE
RECOGNITION
045
PERSONALITY
RECOGNITION

TRENDS 042 - 050 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
RECOGNITION KEEP
SYSTEMS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT PERSISTENT RECOGNITION ETHICAL CONCERNS

We are surrounded by cameras, Amazon has filed for a number of Governments, law enforcement
speakers and a host of other smart patents that will give its virtual assis- agencies and others are interested in
devices that monitor us in real-time, tant Alexa superpowers: the ability getting access to all of this data for a
all the time. Recognition systems use to recognize whether we are sick variety of reasons. The Federal Bureau
hundreds of different data points to or if we’re angry. That information, of Investigations (FBI) and Immigra-
identify and monitor us, and to predict combined with background noise and tion and Customs Enforcement (ICE)
our next likely actions both online and our location (not to mention a host of have used images from state license
in the physical world. other data points, like our gender, age, databases to build a powerful facial
There is tremendous value in all of and accent) could be used to target recognition system. While police in
Governments, law enforcement agencies this discoverability. Persistent rec- consumers for marketing. But it also the U.S. have access to biometric data
and others are interested in getting access ognition enables companies to learn reveals a new trend in recognition (fingerprints and DNA) from people
to faceprints. more about consumers and provide technologies: persistent recognition. who’ve been arrested, this image
them with a level of personalization We are continuously being recorded. recognition system includes resi-
that could not possibly be achieved at Our data are mined and refined by dents who have never been charged
scale any other way. As a result, we’re the smart speakers in our homes and with a crime. Whereas someone who
finding new books, articles and shows offices, the doorbell cameras and se- has been arrested knows their photo
that entertain and inspire us. Technol- curity systems wired to our entrance- and fingerprints have been taken,
ogy is assisting us throughout the day, ways and buildings, the monitoring U.S. residents are not informed when
helping to optimize every facet of our algorithms in our cars, the anti-fraud their driver license photos are being
lives: telling us which route to drive, technologies employed by our financial entered into a database and used with
when to eat a snack, and which lip institutions and websites. machine learning algorithms.
color works best. In every local jurisdiction in the U.S.,
privacy laws differ. And they lag signifi-

RECOGNITION SYSTEMS cont.

izens have the right to opt out, flying ability to control and influence us.
can be a stressful experience, espe- The behavioral advertising business
cially when there are weather delays. incentives of technology platforms
Travelers have been trading liberties spur practices that are dividing our
for conveniences and the assurance society. The harm from this conduct
that their plan will depart on time. is immeasurable, and regulators and
policymakers must confront it.”
BREACHES AND TRUST
Companies and governments are col-
In July 2019, the Federal Trade Com- lecting data on the general public en
mission fined Facebook $5 billion masse. And yet, breaches have contin-
after a yearlong investigation into the ued. U.S. Customs and Border Protec-
company’s business practices and tion, Capital One and State Farms are
advertising model. Commissioner just some of the organizations that
Rohit Chopra wrote a stunning dis- suffered data breaches in 2019.
sent: “Facebook’s violations were a
direct result of the company’s be- 042
havioral advertising business model. FACEPRINTS
Facebook flagrantly violated the FTC’s
2012 order by deceiving its users and Faceprint technology is becoming more
allowing pay-for-play data harvesting robust, capable of recognizing peo-
Google’s newest Pixel phone can be unlocked cantly behind technology. The cities ple in numerous conditions. Chinese
by developers. The company’s be-
using biometric recognition. of Somerville, Mass., San Francisco havioral advertising business, which startup Megvii Face++, supported
and Oakland passed laws banning city monetizes user behavior through heavily with sovereign wealth funds
departments – including police – from mass surveillance, contributed to from both China and Russia, is pio-
using facial recognition software. these violations. Cambridge Analyti- neering faceprint technologies that are
Meanwhile, airports are beginning ca’s tactics of profiling and targeting secure enough to be used for financial
to test face recognition technology. users were a small-scale reflection of transactions. Face++ is also being used
At JetBlue e-gates, travelers must Facebook’s own practices… The case by China’s police force for widespread
allow their faces to be scanned before against Facebook is about more than surveillance. Unlike fingerprinting or
they board planes. In Atlanta, Delta’s just privacy – it is also about the power iris/ retinal scanning, which are difficult
biometric terminal uses faces – rather to control and manipulate. Global to do without someone’s direct knowl-
than printed or mobile boarding cards regulators and policymakers need to edge, faceprints can be taken surrepti-
– throughout the check in and board- confront the dangers associated with tiously, even from far away. Research-
ing process. While technically U.S. cit- mass surveillance and the resulting ers at NEC in Japan are taking multiple
3D scans to quickly check a person’s


face against those catalogued in a reg- duced when we speak. Researchers at and Projects group, which also devel- to predict your specific needs and
istry; it will deploy the system for every- Carnegie Mellon University discovered oped the Project Jacquard connected desires. ElectronicArts is working on
one participating in the 2020 Olympics. a generative technique allowing them clothing system found in Levi’s Com- a system that assesses the personality
Amazon developed new technology to build a 3D version of someone’s face muter Trucker jackets. (In early 2019 of its multiplayer video game users to
to connect doorbell cameras with its using only their voiceprint. This sys- Google won approval from the Federal do a better job of matching players,
facial recognition databases, with the tem is being deployed by law enforce- Communications Commission to run its using their play style, conversational
ability to automatically recognize who’s ment agencies to identify prank callers Project Soli hand tracking technology style, and willingness to spend money.
at the door and to call police if anyone and those who trick local agencies into on commercial aircraft.) NUIs will soon In the real world, insurance under-
suspicious is detected. Researchers in sending out swat teams to take out allow us to control many devices with writers are attempting to assess your
Japan and China are working on rep- retaliation or revenge on others. our body movement alone. We’ll also personality—via your magazine and
resentation models that require only a start to see applications in the work- website subscriptions, the photos you
portion of your face, even in low light, to 044 place that record our body movement post to social media, and more—in
accurately predict someone’s identi- GESTURE RECOGNITION to predict when we’re most productive. order to determine how risky an in-
ty—even as they chance their hairstyles, It could also help security learn when vestment you are. Some lenders have
Gesture recognition technologies are
get plastic surgery or grow a beard. we might cause harm to others. used personality algorithms to predict
now capable of interpreting motion
There were legal challenges in 2019, to identify us and make decisions on your future financial transactions.
which resulted in some U.S. cities bar- our behalf. Emerging gesture rec- 045 (The data show that if you look at two
ring city departments from using facial ognition systems represent Natural PERSONALITY RECOGNITION people with the same professional and
recognition technology without first User Interfaces (NUIs), and they are an Emerging predictive analytics tools personal circumstances, the one with
going through approved procedures. In- important component for the future of wrangle your data, behavior and pref- a higher college G.P.A. will be more
dividual cities, counties and states now many different technologies. Imagine erences in order to map your person- likely to pay off a debt.)
have different regulations stipulating picking up a digital object with your ality—and predict how you’re likely to
who can use faceprints and under what hand, or controlling a remote robotic react in just about any situation. In 046
circumstances. arm without being tethered to a bunch 2018, you heard plenty about this kind EMOTIONAL RECOGNITION
of wires. Gesture recognition unlocks of predictive analytics: Cambridge In 2018, Amazon filed a patent for a new
043 the interplay between our physical and Analytica used algorithmic profiling system that detects the physical and
VOICEPRINTS digital realms. Google’s Pixel 4 phone to help Donald Trump win the elec- emotional wellbeing of users based on
Voiceprints are the set of unique char- can be controlled without touching tion. Political candidates, law firms, their previous and current interactions.
acteristics that make up your individ- the screen. Instead, the phone uses marketers, customer service reps and If it detects you’re sick, Amazon sug-
ual voice. New machine learning tech- Motion sense and radar technology to others are beginning to use new sys- gests cough drops with one-hour de-
niques, combined with vast datasets detect micro-gestures. The technolo- tems that review your online behavior, livery. Auto manufacturer Kia debuted
of recorded voices, have now enabled gy comes out of Project Soli, an early emails and conversations you have by its Real-time Emotion Adaptive Driving
researchers to identify us simply by hand tracking technology developed phone, and in person, to assess your System (R.E.A.D.) at CES in 2019—it’s a
listening for the micro-signatures pro- by Google’s Advanced Technology personality in real time. The goal: recognition system that adapts vehicle


emotions. But data from other sources available. That’s because raw biomet-
can be useful, too: our skin, our faces, ric data can be uploaded to open-
and our conversations. Analysts spec- source databases like GEDmatch,
ulate that affective computing could which allows users to look for relatives
become a $25 billion industry by 2023. across all of the other DNA platforms,
and because the pervasiveness of oth-
048 er websites (Facebook, government
BONE RECOGNITION databases) which allow us to search on
lots of different data points. In addi-
In 2018, the US Air Force applied for
tion, data shared with consumer DNA
a patent that explains how wideband
RADAR can be used to identify people services might be used by third parties
by their bone structure. A transmitting legally, and without your consent. In
antenna sends a signal to a human, and 2018, 23andMe received $300 million
that person’s biometric radar signature to share its data with pharmaceutical
is compared against known signatures company GlaxoSmithKline.
in a database. This is especially bad
news for people with screws and metal 050
bars in their bodies, which may be in- UNIVERSAL GENETIC
visible to everyday people but turn into DATABASES
Amazon’s Rekognition system is being used interiors to a passenger’s emotional clear beacons when scanned. The proliferation of consumer DNA
by law enforcement agencies. state by using sensors to monitor their testing services offers significant, un-
facial expressions, heart rate and elec- 049 tapped potential for myriad industries
trodermal activity. GENETIC RECOGNITION and fields, including insurance, phar-
maceuticals and law enforcement. As
The popularity of consumer DNA
047 a result, there is a new effort underway
testing may help people learn more
AFFECTIVE COMPUTING to collect and structure all of this data
about their ancestry, but it’s also
so that is more easily accessed. What’s
Affective computing is an interdis- making it easier to recognize people
unclear: under what circumstances
ciplinary field spanning computer without their express permission
third parties should be able to pull and
science, psychology, and cognitive or knowledge. It is now possible to
identify about 60% of people in the use genetic data housed in private
science. Researchers at MIT are using databases. The governments of Saudi
electrodermal activity collected from U.S. who are of European descent,
even if they’ve never sent in a sample Arabia, Kuwait, the UK and China have
our wearable computers (smart watch- been researching whether to create a
es, fitness trackers) with machine to 23andMe, Color, AncestryDNA or
universal database populated with the
learning algorithms respond to our any of the other testing services now
genetic information of its citizens.
051 055
BEHAVIORAL IN-HOME
BIOMETRICS TRACKING
052 056
SCORING
BIAS IN SCORING SCORING
SYSTEMS VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS
053
PIECEMEAL 057
NORMS, SURVEILLANCE
STANDARDS AND SCORING AS A
REGULATIONS SERVICE
054
INTENTIONALLY
OPAQUE
TRACKING

TRENDS 051 - 057 • SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
SCORING REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT SCORING IMPLICATIONS researchers that price spiked to $9.69.

Customers are being algorithmically
In the U.S., we have a credit reporting We’re shedding data just by virtue of be-
assigned scores based on the predict-
system that measures our creditwor- ing alive. Our eyes, posture, unique bone
ed profit they might generate for the
thiness. Banks, financial institutions and capillary structures, and our voices
company.
and others use that score to determine can be used to recognize who we are,
the likelihood that we might default but all of that data can also be studied
CHINA VS THE WEST
on a loan or mortgage. Financial and analyzed to score and rank us.
credit scoring is tightly regulated and By now, many people are familiar with
Myriad companies are now using all
available to all consumers: we can China’s Social Credit Score, a vast
of this data to determine how likely
request copies of our financial cred- ranking system that will eventually
we are to break the law, what kinds of
it scores, check their accuracy and monitor the behavior of its enormous
China’s Social Credit Score is a vast ranking mobile plans we should qualify for, what
correct errors. Now, hundreds of types population. First announced in 2014, it
system that will eventually monitor the kinds of news we should be shown, and
of data are being harnessed to assign promises to make good on the govern-
behavior of its enormous population. even how much we’re willing to pay for
us scores. However, unlike the credit ment’s stance that “keeping trust is
a roll of toilet paper. Researchers at
reporting system, which is federally glorious and breaking trust is dis-
the Consumer Education Foundation
regulated and follows set process- graceful.” The system will take some
found that when visiting e-commerce
es, this kind of data isn’t subject to time to become fully operational na-
sites, anonymous shoppers were
enforceable rules. It can be impossible tionwide, but already it’s granting and
offered products at lower prices than
to find out what our scores are, how restricting permissions for Chinese
the researchers themselves. For ex-
they are being calculated, and how to citizens algorithmically. In 2018, more
ample, when browsing anonymously at
correct them if there are inaccuracies. than 300,000 people were eligible for
Walmart.com, a box of ballpoint pens
promotions at work but were denied
was listed for $4.15, but when Walmart
because their social credit scores
had access to other data from the
were too low. Nine million people

SCORING cont.
with low scores were prohibited from finger your C’s and V’s on your phone, The tech industry still doesn’t have a they are prioritizing customer privacy
buying tickets for flights. Three million and how quickly you tend to flick your plan for how to address and solve for over profit. Illinois was one of the first
people were denied the ability to fingers when hunting through search bias in recognition systems that are states to enact legislation preventing
purchase business-class train tickets, results. Those tools know your unique now scoring all of us continuously. facial recognition without a consum-
even though they could afford to buy typing pattern on a physical keyboard, However, it is likely that algorithmic er’s explicit permission. Individual cit-
them. Citizens are awarded or deduct- too: if you’re someone who constantly bias is a problem that will get worse, ies are passing their own data privacy
ed points for a variety of activities, spells the word “behavioral” wrong especially as more recognition tech- laws, too. Outside the U.S., the E.U.’s
like paying bills on time, spreading on the first try, and whether you hold nologies are used in law enforcement GDPR regulations restrict what kinds
news contrary to the government’s down or repeatedly tap on the delete and within the justice system. In June of personal data can be collected and
viewpoints, or spending too much time button. You’re not consciously aware 2019, Facebook announced it was under what circumstances, but even
playing video games. that you have certain identifiable building an independent oversight that is enforced differently by local
In the West, we chastise China’s credit behaviors, but they are perceptible to board – a kind of “supreme court” – to authorities. Our piecemeal approach
score system. But there’s another way machines. We don’t think of our behav- judge itself. The board of 40 people to data governance will challenge au-
of looking at it: our algorithmic deter- iors as identifiable markers, and that would make content review decisions dience insights, risk and compliance,
minants assign us scores all the time, will pose security vulnerabilities – as in small panels, in an effort to curtail and distribution for entertainment,
they’re just not codified under a single well as interesting new opportunities false or misleading information, cyber news and technology companies in the
national edict. Rather than our gov- – in the near future. Imagine never hav- bullying and meddling by governments years to come.
ernments setting standards for what’s ing to use a password again; your bank wishing to cause harm to countries
meritorious or improper, the commer- would simply recognize it’s you after and their citizens. 054
cial sector does. typing a few sentences. The downside INTENTIONALLY OPAQUE
is that if your behavior is observable, 053 TRACKING
051 at some point it will become repeat- PIECEMEAL NORMS, STANDARDS New tools intended to enhance our
BEHAVIORAL BIOMETRICS able, too. AND REGULATIONS digital experience are instead tracking
Quantifying and analyzing our bio- California was the first state to try to us without explicitly showing how or
052 reduce the power of bots by requiring why. The latest version of reCAPTCHA,
metric data can reveal patterns in our BIAS IN SCORING SYSTEMS
activities–and as a result reveal a lot that they reveal their “artificial identi- which determines whether we are bots
about who we are, what we’re thinking, By now, it’s no secret that some of our ty” when they are used to sell a prod- or not, isn’t visible. Rather than asking
and what we are likely to do next. This machine learning models—and the uct or influence a voter. A consumer consumers to click a box saying “I’m
is why companies like Facebook have data they use to recognize others—are privacy law introduced in May 2019 in not a robot” or selecting which pic-
come under intense scrutiny in the encoded with bias. That’s because the New York State would give consumers tures show traffic lights or bananas,
past year. Behavioral biometrics tools people who built the models are them- more control over their data than any this latest version invisibly tracks how
can be used to map and measure how selves subject to unconscious bias, other state in the U.S. It would require someone navigates through a website
you type–what force you use to press as well as more explicit homogeneous businesses – including news and enter- and assigns them a risk score. Devel-
down on screens, whether you fat learning and working environments. tainment companies – to demonstrate oped by Google, reCAPTCHA not only

SCORING cont.
establishes that a computer user is 055 example, what if the locks on a bath-
human, it also helps digitize books and IN-HOME TRACKING room door determine that someone
improve machine learning programs. trying to enter is the “wrong” gender?
Retailers are hoping to gain access to
While it may be far less annoying than How could scoring systems threaten
our homes to deliver purchases – and
clicking through the old process, this academic studies? What about clinical
also to learn more about what we’re
system looks for other details, like research?
likely to buy next. Workers from both
whether you already have a Google
Amazon.com and Walmart.com will de-
cookie in your browser and whether 057
liver packages indoors and even stock
you’re logged into your Google account. SURVEILLANCE SCORING AS A
your refrigerator with groceries, and to
Over time, the system learns the pat- SERVICE
allay fears of theft, those workers will
terns of real people – but it also means Some of our largest tech giants are
be outfitted with cameras. The prob-
that Google could gain access to every building comprehensive systems
lem? Amazon and Walmart will store
single page you’re accessing. The intended to optimize our daily lives,
video footage of the delivery. This
email program Superhuman similarly and that includes neighborhood watch.
will enable the companies to develop
uses hidden tracking tools. Designer Amazon applied for a U.S. patent for
computer vision analytics and other
and news entrepreneur Mike Davidson an unmanned aerial vehicle that can
Our voiceprints can be used to track and processes to gain insights from the
researched how consumers were being perform surveillance from the air and
score us. millions of hours of video collected.
tracked within Superhuman and re- generate images that could be used by
vealed numerous opaque surveillance
techniques being used – some to power
056 others. Surveillance as a service would
features like to read email receipts.

SCORING VULNERABLE be a monetized byproduct of its drone
(To be fair, Superhuman isn’t the only

POPULATIONS delivery service, and would fit into its
broader constellation of surveillance
company embedding tracking pixels in AI-powered recognition tools have
scoring technologies. In February
emails.) This could be problematic for well-documented blind spots. They of-
2018, Amazon acquired the smart, vid-
a journalist working in a country ruled ten return incorrect results for people
eo-equipped doorbell company Ring,
by an authoritarian regime. How to of color and for trans, LBGT and non-
and three months later it launched
use tracking tools ethically and how to binary individuals. As we increasingly
Neighbors, a crime-reporting social
disclose their true reach to consumers rely on recognition systems, these
network that encourages Ring users to
should be a discussion had by every already marginalized populations
upload videos from their security cam-
entertainment, media and technology could suffer further misidentification,
eras and doorbells for others to see.
company this year. embarrassment and harassment. For

SYNTHETIC
MEDIA
058 063
SPEECH GENERATIVE
SYNTHESIS ALGORITHMS FOR
VOICE, SOUND
059 AND VIDEO
064
MODULATING
CUSTOM VOICES
SYNTHETIC
060 INFLUENCERS
065
VOICE FRAUD
061 SYNTHETIC
ENVIRONMENTS
MACHINE IMAGE
COMPLETION
062
DEEP BEHAVIORS
AND PREDICTIVE
MACHINE VISION

TRENDS 058 - 065 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
SYNTHETIC MEDIA REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT content company Replika after her best dedicated to algorithmically-generated
friend was killed in a car accident. She scenes from TV shows “Friends” and
You’ve probably already encountered
built a database of old text messages to “The Office.”
synthetic media, such as virtual
preserve his memory and then trained
Japanese pop star Hatsune Miku (she
a chatbot to mimic his personality and IMPACT ON ENTERTAINMENT
debuted in 2007) or the British virtual
speaking style. Replika is now offered AND NEWS MEDIA
band Gorrilaz, a project by artist Jamie
commercially for anyone who wants to Synthetic content presents real-world
Hewlett and musician Damon Albarn
build a replica of themselves for others challenges in our current age of misin-
that released its first track in 1998.
to interact with. Google’s Duplex assis- formation. A sub-page on ThisPerson-
What’s next is algorithmically-created
tant, which can make calls on a user’s DoesNotExist.com offers algorithmi-
or modified media.
behalf to book appointments or order cally-generated news stories that grabs
Miquela Sousa, also known as Lil, is a products, is another example of syn-
synthetic character popular across social SYNTHETIC MEDIA: A PRIMER thetic media. Its initial launch provoked
the top headlines from either Hacker
News or Reddit and then writes articles
media channels. Artificial intelligence is used to gener- questions and concern over whether it to follow. For example, a story with the
ate people, voices, text, photos, ob- would (or needed to) let people know the dateline TORONTO, April 2 (Reuters)
jects, motions, videos, and other types system was an AI agent. reads:
of content using initial corpora, training
AI can be deployed to generate images “Canadian health authorities on
algorithms, and deploying systems
and videos, too. ThisPersonDoesNotEx-
that meet certain parameters. The end Monday unveiled a crackdown on drug
ist.com is a website that will produce
result: chatbots that respond personally pricing, obliging drug makers to hold
an infinite number of synthetic people price concessions over less profitable
to individual people using details spe-
who look perfectly…human. (A similar
cific to them and virtual characters that treatments.
site, ThisCatDoesNotExist.com, was
have unique voices and features. Canada relies on purchases from gov-
less successful in producing images
Eugenia Kuyda cofounded the synthetic of synthetic cats.) There are pages ernment-run health plans for its feder-
ally controlled health insurance system,

SYNTHETIC MEDIA cont.

but it also mandates discounts on from Facebook and Instagram, where like Prada and Calvin Klein, a musician
prices for the low-cost generic drugs it was being shared widely. After the • Custom regional accents: with popular tracks on Spotify, and a
that make up most of its prescription Advertisers could generate hundreds
platform took no action, a video of paid brand ambassador with deals from
list. The Canadian government said (or even thousands) of synthetic
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg giving enormous, global companies like Sam-
drug companies must accept no price characters to appeal to narrow
a sinister speech was uploaded to sung. And she has friends: Bermuda, a
concessions, or else face harsher pen- demographic bases. Rather than
Instagram. In it, Zuckerberg appeared rule-breaking bad girl model/ influencer
alties, including hefty fines and the end selecting one human actor to extol
to say: “Imagine this for a second: One and Blawko, an LA-based guy who likes
of their contracts.” the virtues of a particular toothpaste,
man, with total control of billions of fast cars, Absolut vodka and is never
synthetic characters could speak
The page does list a disclaimer at the people’s stolen data, all their secrets, without his trademark face scarf cover-
directly to Southern California
top, saying that the “article and its con- their lives, their futures…whoever con- ing his nose and mouth.
trendsetters, stay-at-home-dads
tents are completely fabricated by an trols the data, controls the future.” In many ways, these stars are the an-
living in Chicago, and aspirational Gen
AI from only the headline and domain The Pelosi video was edited skillfully tidote to teen stars like Lindsay Lohan
Z-ers who are just entering college.
supplied above.” – but it is not an example of synthetic and Shia LeBeouf who, for one reason
News sites like WallStreetHack.com and content. The Zuckerberg video, how- • Reaching people in their own or another, stray from their careful-
languages:
PerfectLifeHack.com are completely ever, was created using an algorithm ly-crafted public images and cause
In 2019, a campaign produced by AI
synthetic. None of the content was writ- trained on real-world videos of him headaches for their agents, managers
video synthesis company Synthesia
ten by a human, and none of the people, talking. and the brands or projects they repre-
and advertising agency R/GA London
animals, or even background trees The distinction is important, because sent. Synthetic stars don’t sleep. They
to create synthetic versions of
depicted in the images are real. It is all not all synthetic content is necessarily don’t eat. They never get tired, even if
David Beckham for a public service
artificial, generated by AI. This further fake news — and not all fake news is they’re pushed 24-hours a day. They
announcement about malaria. The
illustrates how easy it is to populate the necessarily synthetic content. don’t drink alcohol or use drugs. They
short film shows Beckham talking
web with generated content. would never say anything off-message,
about how to fight malaria in nine
POSITIVE USE CASES and their mug shots would never go viral
different languages. (His face moved
DEEPFAKES VS DEEPLY EDITED correctly, but the voices weren’t
on the internet. (Unless it was planned,
There are ample positive use cases for of course. Over the summer, Bermuda
In May 2019, footage of U.S. Democratic synthetic content. matched to his — though modulating
posted her own mugshot on Instagram
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went viral. voices is also possible.)
In the video, she was slurring her words • Cost savings and scheduling: to “get ahead” of the press.)
Synthesizing voices could cut down
and to many it appeared as though she SYNTHETIC STARS REGULATORY CHALLENGES
on the time needed for busy voice
was either drunk or unwell. Soon jour-
actors. If you have Emily Blunt There are a number of synthetic influ-
nalists debunked the footage and many There are no laws or regulations any-
voicing a character in your animated encers with very large fan bases. Lil
news organizations worldwide referred where governing synthetic content,
film, you could capture a sample of Miquela is a sort of Beyonce of synthet-
to it as a “deepfake video.” Many people though some have recommended
her voice and then program a system ic stars, with 1.6 million followers as of
demanded that the video be removed adapting current laws covering libel,
to record her lines. August 2019. She is a model for brands
defamation, identity fraud or imperson-


ating a government official. This is a
tricky area, though. • If the person who created the
synthetic character and all their
2019’s Call of Duty: Modern Warfare was content dies, or if the company goes
designed with brutal realism. Players out of business, who inherits the
enter realistic combat situations and character?
have to decide whether to shoot syn-
thetic civilians. Where do we draw the • If an AI system starts generating
synthetic characters, and those
lines between disclosure and pure fan-
characters cause harm to others,
tasy? Parody for laughs and deepfakes
who’s responsible then?
for harm? What happens when synthetic
content seems so real that the psycho- • What disclosures should be required
logical implications are intense and to let people know content or
profound? What if someone generates characters are synthetic?
synthetic environments that mirror situ- • How do we define “truth” in an era of
ations and people from the real world? synthesized media?
FINDING TRUTH IN VIRTUAL 058

WORLDS SPEECH SYNTHESIS
Synthetic content is still built by Also known as “synthetic speech” or
humans, but at some point it will be “text-to-speech technology,” speech
completely algorithmically generated. synthesis mimics real human voices
This raises some difficult questions we and deploys them to various interfaces.
ought to be addressing today, like: With enough data and training, a speech
• Who “owns” synthetic content? Who synthesis system can learn the spec-
is responsible for it? tral frequency of anyone and produce
• Do a country’s speech laws govern someone’s digital voiceprint. Synthesia

is a company that uses this technology
humans and synthetic characters in
to dub people through automated facial
the same ways?
re-animation. This will be especially
• What responsibility would we have useful for movies with wide, internation-
to preserve a synthetic character’s al releases. Actors’ facial expressions
actions? Or could they be easily and mouths can be reformatted to show
deleted? local languages synchronized correctly.
Bermuda is a synthetic character developed by Brud, a transmedia studio.


059 060 There are practical applications for 062
MODULATING CUSTOM VOICES VOICE FRAUD professional photographers as well as DEEP BEHAVIORS AND
Generative algorithms are creating Synthesized media has a known prob-
everyone who wants to take a bet- PREDICTIVE MACHINE VISION
ter selfie. Soon, if the foreground of
synthetic voices that sound just like lem area: it can be used by malicious Researchers at MIT’s CSAIL have
a mountain is out of focus, or if your
the original, and those voices can be actors to mislead people, to trick voice trained computers to not only recog-
skin has an unsightly blemish, another
modulated to the exact pitch and tone authentication systems, and to create nize what’s in a video, but to predict
version can be swapped in to generate
desired. Montreal-based AI startup forged audio recordings. According to what humans will do next. Trained on
the perfect picture. But what are the
Lyrebird built a voice imitation al- a study by call center software maker YouTube videos and TV shows such
next-order scenarios and implications?
gorithm capable of generating fake Pindrop, voice fraud cost U.S. business- as “The Office” and “Desperate House-
How will we draw the line between
speech that sounds imperceptible from es with call centers $14 billion last year wives,” a computer system can now
reality and enhancement? How much
the real thing. It uses a database of alone. Google has been working on a predict whether two people are likely
image completion should be allowed
voice samples that are either available synthetic speech dataset as part of the to hug, kiss, shake hands or slap a high
without tacking on a warning label or
in public repositories (YouTube, Vimeo, ASVspoof 2019 Challenge, which is an five. This research will someday enable
disclosure? Online daters, journalists,
Soundcloud) or samples uploaded by open source, global initiative designed robots to more easily navigate human
and marketers should be asking these
the user. The AI learns over time to to help develop countermeasures to environments—and to interact with us
questions. But so should policymakers.
recognize not only intonation, but also fight spoofed speech. Researchers humans by taking cues from our own
Image completion is also a useful tool
emotional cadences. This technology hope that the challenge will lead to body language. It could also be used in
for law enforcement and military intel-
can be fun to play with. You can fake a more secure synthetic voice content. retail environments, while we’re operat-
ligence officers—computers can now
conversation between yourself and your Voice synthesis startup Lyrebird keeps ing machinery, or while we’re in class-
assist them in identifying who or what
favorite celebrity, provided there are its ethics statement in view on its web- rooms learning.
is in the frame. Given the bias we’ve
enough publicly-available audio files site, and warns that its software “could
already seen across machine learning
to build a dataset. Soon, it will be able potentially have dangerous conse-
algorithms and data sets, image com-
063
to match and rapidly deploy synthetic quences such as misleading diplomats,
pletion could become part of a future
GENERATIVE ALGORITHMS FOR
voices personalized for each individ- fraud and more generally any other
debate about privacy and our devices.
VOICE, SOUND AND VIDEO
ual consumer. Y Combinator-backed problem caused by stealing the identity Researchers at chipmaker Nvidia
AI researchers at the Skolkovo Insti-
Voicery creates bespoke voices for of someone else.” deployed a new generative algorithm in
tute of Science and Technology and
brands. If you are someone who loved 2018 that created realistic human faces
the Samsung AI Center used machine
Pee-Wee’s Playhouse, you might hear 061 image completion techniques to bring using a generative adversarial network.
Miss Yvonne’s voice (or Jambi’s) during a MACHINE IMAGE COMPLETION motion to old photos and famous paint- In their system, the algorithm could also
car commercial. Bu we should remem- If a computer system has access to ings, [including the Mona Lisa.] tweak various elements, like age and
ber that in this era of misinformation, enough images—millions and millions—it freckle density. A team at UC Berkley
synthetic voices can also be used to can patch and fill in holes in pictures. created software that can transfer the
trick unwitting consumers.


movements of one person in a video to 064
someone in another video automatical- SYNTHETIC INFLUENCERS
ly. For some time, we’ve been training
In February 2019, China’s state news
computers to watch videos and predict
agency Xinhua revealed Xin Xiaomeng,
corresponding sounds in our physical
an AI news anchor. Xin Xiaomeng joined
world. For example, what sound is gen-
her male counterparts, Qui Hao and Xin
erated when a wooden drumstick taps a
Xiaohao, in an ever-expanding Chinese
couch? A pile of leaves? A glass window-
AI news environment. They appear in
pane? The focus of this research is to
videos and also write stories. These and
help systems understand how objects
other synthetic influencers, such as Lil
interact with each other in the physical
Miquela and Bermuda, are proliferating
realm. That work helped lead to sophis-
far and wide online.
ticated spoofing: in 2017, researchers at
the University of Washington devel-
oped a model that convincingly showed
065
President Barack Obama giving a
SYNTHETIC ENVIRONMENTS
speech—that he never actually gave Companies are now mapping the real
in real life. In 2018, a Belgian political world to generate synthetic digital
party, Socialistische Partij Anders, or twins. Amazon has been studying
sp.a for short, published realistic videos Snohomish County in Washington,
Chinese news anchor Xin Xiaomeng was developed using artificial intelligence. building realistic simulations of the
of Donald Trump all over social media
in which he offered advice on climate region’s roads, buildings and traffic. Its
change: “As you know, I had the balls to maps are reported to be accurate down
withdraw from the Paris climate agree- to the centimeter, accurately tracking
ment,” he said, looking directly into the subtle gradients in pavement and noting
camera, “and so should you.” This trend unique markings on sidewalks. Maps
is likely to become more problematic, as and 3D data are fused to build synthet-
fakes intermingle with AI’s intended to ic versions of the county for testing.
help deliver factual content. These kinds of virtual environments will
be necessary as delivery drones move
from research labs into the mainstream.
In 2019, Amazon was able to test its
Scout delivery robot in the real world
using what it learned in the synthetic
environment.

NEAR-FUTURE SCENARIOS (2019 - 2024)
OPTIMISTIC NEUTRAL CATASTROPHIC

Synthetic media platforms and com- Synthetic media is quickly commer- Synthetic media is weaponized by many
panies collaborate with governments cialized, and startups prioritize speed different actors, including govern-
and academics to develop and deploy a over safety. Synthetic content be- ments, activist groups and individu-
standard disclosure system to de- comes so popular that questions about als. It is treated the same as all other
scribe what, exactly, is in the synthetic intellectual property go unanswered internet content, showing up in search
content. This disclosure is read by until someone brings a lawsuit. With results, on our smart speakers as audio
authentication systems. All synthetic public complaints and little recourse, content, on our connected TVs, in our
or modified content is automatically regulators try to get involved. Litiga- inboxes, and throughout social media.
tagged. For satirical, but not intention- tion ensues, costing companies lots of Our sacred information channels – pub-
ally misleading content, a team of hu- money and time. lic/ commercial/ cable news, govern-
mans reviews the work and makes their ment agencies, even family members
decision-making process transparent. – are all compromised. With no way to
contain its spread and no watermark
to help us distinguish between what’s
real and what’s fake, civil unrest leads
to violent protests, corporate boycotts
and local government shutdowns.
AMY
WEBB

INTERFACES
066
OPTIMIZING FOR
VOICE SEARCH
067
NEXT-GEN NATIVE
VIDEO AND AUDIO
STORY FORMATS
068
HUMAN-MACHINE
INTERFACES

TREND 066 • FOURTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
OPTIMIZING FOR KEEP
VOICE SEARCH
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT to make these sounds more navigable. Starting in the car, where Alexa, Siri,
Its technology ingests and analyzes and Google Assistant are already avail-
The conversational web is everywhere.
audio from live radio, podcasts and oth- able as virtual co-pilots, voice search
Using our voices, we can instantly
er sources and uses natural language is moving beyond the home. In 2019,
summon information and other content
processing to understand its contents, Amazon launched its first HIPPA-com-
from smart speakers, car dashboards,
contextualize it, and make it all search- pliant Alexa skills for healthcare
TV remotes, and the digital assistants
able. Audioburst’s tech is available to facilities, while Alexa For Hospitality
inside our smartphones. As voice
developers via its API and the company (launched by Amazon and Marriott)
search proliferates in people’s lives,
is moving quickly to get its AI-powered allows hotel guests can ask ques-
publishers and other organizations
listening experience into cars. tions to a virtual concierge, as well as
have a new strategic consideration: Is
At the same time, the line between request services like fresh towels or
Google recently released a structured data our content optimized for voice search?
old-fashioned web pages and audio a late checkout. Expect voice search
markup called Speakable that publishers to continue weaving itself into more
EXAMPLES content is blurring. New markup tools
can use to optimize their content for Goo- corners of our lives.
let publishers help machines (like voice
gle Assistant. Machines are finally getting better at
assistant AIs) “read” written content
indexing understanding audio content,
and translate it into spoken audio. Goo- WHAT’S NEXT
which was previously locked inside
gle recently released a structured data Voice Search Optimization (VSO) is
waveforms unreadable by web crawl-
markup called Speakable that publish- the new Search Engine Optimization
ers. This means that the ever-expand-
ers can use to optimize their content (SEO). Companies will need to consider
ing universe of podcasts, radio shows
for Google Assistant. It allows publish- how their content–both audio and text-
and other listenable content can be
ers to mark up sections of news articles based–is delivered via conversational
searched and navigated more like the
and optimize them to be read aloud by interfaces. That means both ensuring
traditional, text-based web. Audioburst
Google’s smart assistant. (The specifi- that content is properly formatted, as
is one of the startups leading the effort cations are listed on Schema.org.) well as understanding the contextual

OPTIMIZING FOR VOICE SEARCH cont.
nuances of how people use voice WATCHLIST

search in the wild.
Audioburst; Amazon; Google, Com-
As VSO catches on, we may see cast; Marriott; Tencent; Baidu;
marketers and publishers attempt Alibaba; Microsoft; Apple; Advanced
to outsmart voice search algorithms Media; Viacom.
with black hat trickery. The algo-
rithms will need to adapt accordingly
without docking legitimate content
sources (as we’ve seen before on the
pre-voice web).
For consumers, privacy will contin-
ue to be a concern, increasing the
pressure on tech companies to offer
greater control and transparency.
Amazon’s new “delete what I said
today” Alexa command is one telling
example hinting at things to come.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
NEXT-GEN NATIVE
VIDEO AND AUDIO STORY
REVISIT KEEP
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
FORMATS LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES including The New York Times and NPR
to produce immersive documentary
Capitalizing on the proliferation of Google is developing a new kind of
video segments, viewable in VR, in
consumer tech featuring responsive voice news aggregator where content
which audiences can freely explore
visual, tactile and audio interfaces, from multiple sources can be stitched
environments in 360 degrees.
storytellers are developing uncon- together, stopped, and skipped. Think
ventional narratives to engage their of it as a modern-day mixtape for news.
WHAT’S NEXT
audience in new ways. News media Pioneers in the storytelling space
and entertainment organizations have Currently these new storytelling
are making use of advancements in
begun exploring these innovative formats are in an experimental phase,
audiovisual tech to create content
modes of storytelling, with areas of with consumers yet to fully embrace
that immerses the audience and
focus in personalization, interactivity them, and companies yet to fully mas-
In Bandersnatch, Netflix used interactive elicits interaction. Production house
and immersion. While this will un- ter them. In the coming years, howev-
tools to let viewers choose what the char- Eko creates interactive live-action
doubtedly mean better experiences er, growth is expected in interactive
acters should do next. video content where the viewer taps
for consumers, news and entertain- and immersive audio and video, with
or clicks to decide the protagonist’s
ment media companies must plan for major media brands looking to stake
actions, and Netflix has introduced
a future in which snippets of content their claim in the space. Eko is building
similar user-influenced programming
can be aggregated and delivered via a video platform for Walmart, presum-
for younger viewers. Last year the
speakable schemas. When consumers ably to compete with rival Amazon’s
BBC released an audio play available
ask questions like “What are the Hong robust video programming, and major
on Amazon’s Echo smart speaker in
Kong protests about?” will they simply networks like ABC, Fox, and CNN have
which the listener guides the narrative
get answers? Or will they get answers dedicated digital channels for VR/360
by speaking directly to the characters.
along with the bylines of reporters and video content spanning news, sports,
Meanwhile, companies like RYOT have
the names of media outlets? And how and entertainment. As audiences flock
partnered with major news outlets
will that content be monetized? to the new formats more often and in

NEXT-GEN NATIVE VIDEO AND AUDIO STORY FORMATS cont.
greater numbers, brands at the fore-

front of this trend will be positioned
to perform enhanced data collection
with which to target advertising and
personalize content.
WATCHLIST
Eko; RYOT; BBC R&D; Spotify; Dolby;
Melcher Media; Wolf 359; World Build-
ing Institute; Netflix; Magic Leap;
Amazon; Google; Facebook; Nvidia;
Sony; Imax; Microsoft; Samsung;
Qualcomm; Intel; LG; Huawei; Zeiss;
Xiaomi; HTC; Lenovo; HP; YouTube;
Oculus.

TREND 068 • FIFTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
HUMAN-MACHINE KEEP
INTERFACES
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
directly to computers. With these use electric impulses in the eyeball to them into the brain— likely an effort
human-machine interfaces, people increase and decrease magnification to recruit more scientists. Even so, it
can communicate via thought alone, on a contact lens. Biomedical scien- will be some time before human-ma-
which promises new options for those tists at the University of Minnesota and chine interfaces make their way from
suffering from stroke and paralysis. at Carnegie Mellon University reported the fringes to the mainstream — and it
progress in June 2019 on an interface could take longer if outsized expecta-
EXAMPLES that allows patients to move a cursor tions for this technology outpaces its
Facebook announced that it was trying along a screen and control a robotic rate of practical applications. Now is
to create a headband to allow people arm using a brain-wave sensor sitting the time to consider broader impli-
to type with their thoughts in 2017. on their head — a technique that could cations for this technology — privacy,
Two years later, researchers at the make human-machine interfaces security, inclusivity — and to ensure
Elon Musk presented findings from Neu- more accessible. This work builds on that they are built into the products
University of California - San Francisco
ralink’s research into human-machine research at the Center for Neuroen- from the beginning.
collaborated with Facebook and pub-
interfaces, which included a sensor device gineering at Duke University, which
lished some early results. Their paper
implanted into a rat.
describes progress toward a device created a real-life Iron Man suit, allow- WATCHLIST
that could recognize when a user was ing a paraplegic man to walk out onto Stanford University; Elon Musk; Neura-
asked a question — and sense their a soccer field and kick the first ball of link; Duke University’s Center for Neu-
the 2014 World Cup.
answer. That’s a far cry from letting us- roengineering; University of Southern
KEY INSIGHT
ers control a computer or type at 100 California; University of Washington’s
Voice interfaces like Siri, Alexa and words-per-minute, but it’s a step for- WHAT’S NEXT Center for Sensorimotor Neural En-
Google Assistant are getting more ward and an indication that Facebook Billionaire Elon Musk showed off gineering; Johns Hopkins University;
sophisticated, but researchers are will push forward with its research. research in July from his Neuralink hu- Carnegie Mellon University; Starlab;
already looking ahead: Prototypes man-machine interface project, focus- Case Western Reserve University;
A team at the University of Califor-
look to connect humans and mammals ing on “brain threads” that can sense Penn State University; Johns Hopkins
nia - San Diego has found a way to
brain signals and a device for inserting Applied Physics Laboratory; DARPA.
EXTENDED
069
HOLOGRAMS
070
REALITY
360-DEGREE
VIDEO
071
AUGMENTED
REALITY
072
AR FACE FILTERS
TO PROTECT
INDIVIDUAL’S
IDENTITY
073
AR AS A TOOL TO
ENHANCE PRINT
074
VIRTUAL REALITY

TRENDS 069 - 071 • SEVENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
EXTENDED REALITY REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW to transport and immerse us in distant
Mixed Reality, also known as Extended ABOUT ER environments without ever leaving our
everyday surroundings is liable to cre-
Reality, is the field of digitally generat- AR, VR, 360-degree video and holo-
ate a further expansion of our cultural
ed, enhanced, or manipulated envi- grams have been part of our cultural
perspectives. This presents a major
ronments that encompasses Virtual consciousness for many years now but
opportunity for content creators to
Reality and Augmented Reality. Often have yet to establish themselves as
provide transformational experiences
experienced through a Head Mounted indispensable, ubiquitous technolo-
for audiences, exposing them to other-
Display (HMD) or via mobile devices, gies. While anticipation is high for the
wise unreachable sites from the outer
MR has become increasingly present next generation of devices and con-
reaches of space to the inner workings
in the contemporary consciousness tent in the more immersive field of VR,
of the human body.
VR is experienced wearing a pair of gog- over the course of the last decade. In there are indications that AR, with its
2020 we will see MR continue its grad- potential to save costs and increase
gles and a connected earpiece. 069
ual rise in prevalence across various efficiency in employee training and
HOLOGRAMS
industries and in new commercially technical applications, is poised to
viable applications. Many expect the leapfrog VR in popularity in the near Holograms are projected images that
technology to become an integral part term. appear to occupy three-dimensional
of our everyday lives, from work to space. The holographic display market
One notable phenomenon enabled by
play and everything in between, over is projected to exceed $5B by 2024,
ER is the globalization of experience—
the coming decade, with the spread with advertising representing a large
the ability of the internet to bring
of 5G cellular networks acting as a key piece of that pie. As for consumer
media, culture, and goods from around
catalyst in MR’s cultural ascent. product, professional camera brand
the world into our households and
Red has announced its hologram-gen-
workplaces fundamentally changing
erating Hydrogen Two phone, the
the way we think, and the ability of ER
pricey first iteration of which was a

EXTENDED REALITY cont.

commercial failure, and Huawei and technology push feels stronger than relatively stagnant of late. Original and NBA arenas have introduced AR
Samsung have hologram-capable the market pull, but expect to see content that fully capitalizes on the games displayed on the venue’s central
mobile devices in the works, with near-term growth in display advertis- unique format or a potential uptick in screen that are playable via mobile,
holographic communication as a ing. As hardware becomes cheaper user-generated content could reinvig- Quartz’s mobile app incorporates AR
talked-about—if perhaps not urgently and more finely tuned and companies orate the medium. features into certain news stories, and
needed—potential feature. In 2019 begin to experiment with proprietary Google offers mobile AR for everything
Microsoft showcased holographic content, holograms will start to enter 071 from real-time translation of text in a
technology, viewable via their Holo- the consumer market as well. AUGMENTED REALITY foreign language to useful information
Lens device, that taps AI to project overlays in its Street View navigation
Augmented Reality (AR) doesn’t sim-
a hologram of the user appearing to 070 ulate an entirely new environment, screen.
speak in the foreign language of their 360-DEGREE VIDEO but rather overlays digital elements Bottom Line
choosing, which has significant poten-
360-degree video is created with a onto your natural field of vision. AR is AR offers significant market potential,
tial applications in the field of interna-
special camera rig designed to capture often experienced with a Head Mount- with applications across the gaming,
tional business and entertainment. In
omnidirectional footage. Once the ed Display or smart eyewear, with engineering and entertainment indus-
the entertainment space, companies
video is rendered, viewers can rotate devices by leading brands like Google tries, to name only a few. Keep an eye
like LA’s BASE Hologram continue to
their point of view using a mouse, and Microsoft, as well as Magic Leap out for significant investment in the
roll out “live” concerts featuring holo-
touchscreen, or motion-control ges- and the lesser known Vuzix and Meta, space, as AR’s varied practical appli-
graphic projections of bygone artists,
ture to explore the recorded scene. either in development or already on cations make it a highly sought-after
with a posthumous Whitney Houston
YouTube, Facebook and Vimeo offer the market. Apple was widely reported technology, likely to leapfrog VR in
tour set for 2020, but they haven’t yet
360-degree video, and major networks to be working on their own headset, value and prevalence.
mastered the volumetric projection
like ABC, Fox, and CNN have dedicated but supposedly halted those efforts
necessary to render holograms in
3D from multiple angles, so poten-
digital channels for immersive content in 2019, due to the still nascent nature WATCHLIST
spanning news, sports, and entertain- of the market. Apple CEO Tim Cook Red; Magic Leap; Google; Apple; Vuzix;
tial ticket sales are limited. In a less
ment, with more outlets following suit. has however been quoted hailing AR Huawei; Samsung; Microsoft; WiMi;
controversial move, Germany’s Circus
Portable 360-degree cameras from as profound due to the fact that it Ricoh; Meta; Facebook; Vimeo; You-
Roncalli has introduced a cost-effi-
GoPro, Insta360, Ricoh and Xiaomi “amplifies man performance instead Tube; ABC; Fox; CNN; BASE Hologram.
cient and cruelty-free holographic
may soon help increase the presence of isolating humans” as VR might, so
version of their spectacle in response
of user-created and socially shared chances are they haven’t abandoned
to waning interest over animal rights
360-degree video content. the project entirely. While companies
concerns.
Bottom Line jockey to produce the first widely
Bottom Line adopted consumer AR headset, mobile
360-degree video has significant
Cost and content are still the two main devices provide the most accessi-
market potential, serving as a cost-ef-
factors slowing the proliferation of ble AR experiences for the average
fective alternate to VR, though growth
hologram tech. At the moment the consumer. Some movie theaters
and innovation in the space has been

MORE AR TRENDS TO WATCH
072 073
AR FACE FILTERS TO PROTECT AR AS A TOOL TO ENHANCE
INDIVIDUAL’S IDENTITY PRINT
Some media outlets have begun using One trend we expect to continue to
AR features like Snapchat face filters see grow is AR as a compliment to
as a way of concealing the identity of print. Media companies are using AR in
the person speaking while still allowing print as a way to further engage con-
the viewer to see the facial expres- sumers. AR is incorporated through
sions of the person speaking. The two distinct channels: content and
Hindustan Times has used these face advertising. Services like blippar add
filters when talking to underage rape animations, models, or images that
victims allowing them an opportunity can only be unlocked using a smart-
to tell their story while protecting their phone. Companies such as Max Factor
privacy. and Net-A-Porter have used AR to
allow users to scan the items they like
and directly purchase them through
their mobile phone. The success of AR
driven ad campaigns represents a win-
win for both the media company and
the advertiser, and brands will con-
tinue to use this innovation due to the
discounted price of print advertising.

PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR AUGMENTED REALITY
OPTIMISTIC NEUTRAL CATASTROPHIC

AR Levels the Playing Field for Media AR Data Visualization Popularizes New Forms Camera-Integrated AR is Used to Extract
Comprehension of Infographical Immersion Users’ Personal and Domestic Data
Creating content, whether for entertainment or Graphical representations of data are notoriously fick- Some of the most celebrated current use cases for
education, involves an inevitable compromise. If you le—two charts can use the exact same data to prove AR are applied in the user’s home. With a range of
aim to create something highbrow, you alienate the opposing points. Even when the conclusion being available apps, a mobile or laptop camera can be used
average audience for whom the content will be over drawn is unequivocal, sometimes go-to graphical for- to superimpose digital objects such as interactive
their heads. But if you instead attempt to make content mats fail to properly communicate it. AR could serve as avatars or household furnishings into the physical
accessible and comprehensible to all, you risk sacri- a useful tool for increasing the impact and effective- space of one’s living area, or overlay clothing, beauty
ficing quality. What if Augmented Reality allows for the ness of data visualizations, especially in making them products, or even alterations to one’s physical features
best of both worlds? As AR proliferates, along with the more interactive and engaging. When data represent- onto the image of their body. As with so many other
devices through which we can experience it, content ing contrasting groups of various demographics is seemingly free digital services and conveniences, the
creators may be able to produce critically-acclaimed visualized, for example, instead of seeing a numerical benefits of these AR enhancements—whether they’re
and intellectually stimulating work that maintains a ratio, pie chart, or repeated generic human symbol in simply for entertainment, or to help the user virtually
broad appeal. A combination of personal screens, head two dimensions, one could walk through an AR-gener- test-drive product—do in fact come at a price, if not
mounted displays, and audio earpieces could be used ated life-size crowd of those people, experiencing their a monetary cost. By giving a company permission
to provide auxiliary information that compensates demographic makeup in the first person. Rather than to access your camera via their AR-integrated app,
for a user’s challenges in comprehension. Content imagining the heights of the world’s tallest peaks, one you may be inviting them to take a look around your
could exist in its pure, unaccompanied form, but with could see them rising at scale before their very eyes, home. If this doesn’t seem like an immediate cause for
a spectrum of AR-integrated versions calibrated to and graphs using data intended for younger audienc- concern, consider the type of information they may
compensate for physical or cognitive impairments, es could be brought to life using three-dimensional be able to discern by analyzing just a few short clips of
varying education levels, language barriers, and more. shapes or dynamic characters to elicit engagement video—how many members comprise your household,
At its most successful, this AR-enhanced content rather than simple observation. In this way, AR could their approximate ages, and which of them are home
could help bridge intergenerational and intercultural be used to help us move away from abstraction and at a given hour; the rough layout and look of your living
gaps allowing for collective media consumption with towards deeper understanding when visually commu- space, including what brands of product you buy, and
a greater average level of enjoyment and comprehen- nicating statistical facts, figures and phenomena. thus your presumed income bracket; your body type,
sion for each audience member. This in turn would posture, weight, and even potential insecurities around
allow creators to make work that more directly reflects your self-image. By cross-referencing this information
their vision, without having to compromise in order to with other accessible data, these companies could
maximize appeal. generate a startlingly accurate and specific profile on
you, which could be used to target you in exploitative
ways without you ever realizing you were complicit. As
fun and useful as it is to use these AR apps, it is always
worth considering what you may be giving up in return.
MARC
PALATUCCI
EXTENDED REALITY cont.

074
VIRTUAL REALITY
Virtual Reality (VR) is an immersive computer-simulated environment. VR is typ-
ically experienced through a Head Mounted Display, which creates the illusion
of being physically present in the scenes being viewed. Recent years have seen
important developments for VR in the realm of entertainment content, with new
Emmy categories evolving to include interactive media, and Hollywood directors
like Darren Aronofsky and Robert Rodriguez developing VR feature content. VR
headsets are available from brands including Google, Sony, Samsung, and HTC,
and in 2019 Facebook owned Oculus introduced the Quest headset, a standalone
alternative to Oculus’ Rift device, which can only be used when tethered to a
PC. Nintendo recently entered the immersive market as well, launched a VR
kit for their popular Switch gaming device. Headsets can also be constructed
by slipping a mobile phone into a special mask. “Standing” VR is viewed from a
relatively stationary perspective and differs from “roomscale” VR, which allows
the viewer to walk more freely in a physical space, with their digital environment
reflecting their real-life movements.
Bottom Line
The VR marketplace is now well established, but not quite mature enough for
widespread popularity. Now, fine tuning of the tech, lower costs for consumer
products, and greater richness and variety of content will be the catalysts for
further growth, and gaming is likely to dominate the first broad wave of adoption.

PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR AUGMENTED REALITY
OPTIMISTIC PRAGMATIC CATASTROPHIC

VR Emerges as a Leading New Medium The Rise of Unmitigated Observation in News VR is Hijacked as a Medium for Deep
for Therapy Media - For Better and For Worse Radicalization
Because of its unique ability to immerse the user in For centuries we’ve relied on journalism to set the It is tempting to think of VR content as existing in
a virtual environment that is sensorially convincing scene for us, using descriptive wording, evocative discrete units—environments, whether based on
enough to change one’s brain chemistry, VR has im- photography, and most recently perspectival video reality or imagination, that users can enter and ex-
mense potential in therapeutic applications. For ex- to transport us wherever a story or event is taking plore one at a time. But because these environments
ample, VR can provide a low-risk method for patients place. But with the dawn of VR we each become the are rarely linear, they often lack a clear beginning or
confronting acute phobias, wherein the appearance primary observer. Strap on a headset and you are end. We’ve witnessed how current media platforms
of the subject of the phobia is realistic enough to now able to experience the environment in question— tether units of content to expand and prolong user
trigger an emotional response, but the knowledge be it a classroom, detention center, nature preserve engagement—YouTube automatically cues up a
that the subject is merely virtual allows the patient or warzone—firsthand, forming your own opinions related clip after the video you chose has concluded;
to react without extreme distress. Another use and assessments with far less obvious intermedi- upon following a Twitter user you’re presented with
case is for those suffering with PTSD. Tests using ation from the reporter or news outlet. The upside similar accounts to follow. We’ve also seen how these
VR “exposure therapy,” which patients revisit virtual of this phenomenon is a newfound sense of trust recommendation engines, programmed to maximize
versions of the environments associated with their and agency for the viewer. By having more control engagement, can trend toward sensational, contro-
trauma, have showed promising results. As equip- over their visual point of view, audiences are less versial, or radical content. Presuming VR ends up
ment becomes more affordable and content creation likely to inherit ideological bias from a narrator or following this same general model, we may soon find
becomes easier, VR has the potential to become a cameraperson with potential ulterior motives. That ourselves coaxed down similar rabbit holes to those
widely accepted transformative tool in the realm of said, we mustn’t mistake VR for direct eyewitness crafted by current digital media platforms, but with
therapy. observation. The medium is by definition illusory and far greater scope and heightened stakes. Watching
thus can be altered or positioned by the organiza- algorithmically recommended videos on a laptop or
tion providing the content, so while it does have the phone screen for a few hours at a time can influence
power to bring us far closer to the source, the trust an individual’s mindset and behavior—imagine that
established therein could provide cover for surrepti- influence translated to the medium of VR, where
tious methods of viewer manipulation. sensorial immersion and interminable content could
beget days-long binges. Additionally, VR content
is dynamic, and may evolve into indiscrete units of
content where characters or thematic elements
migrate between environments. With the makeup of
these freeform digital worlds left in the control of
algorithms programmed to prioritize engagement,
society could feasibly suffer a disastrous mass cor-
ruption and radicalization of unwitting VR users.
MARC
PALATUCCI
ER, EXPLAINED
A MINI-GLOSSARY FOR THE EXTENDED REALITY TERMS YOU’LL NEED TO KNOW IN 2020
Cinematic VR Presence Stitching

VR created with video and images from equipped with haptic feedback, which When a user feels as though she’s fully The process of combining video from dif-
the real world. (The alternative is comput- gives the user the sensation of touching immersed within a simulation, like she’s ferent cameras into one, spherical video
er-generated graphics.) something in the simulated environment actually there, she’s achieved “presence.” suitable for VR. This typically requires a
or receiving touch-back reactions. tremendous amount of editing to fill in
Extended Reality Refresh rate gaps, reorient scenes and seamlessly meld
A somewhat newer term, Extended Reality Head mounted display (HMD) How quickly the images are updated. video streams so that the simulation looks
(XR) is a catch-all describing every envi- This is the headset you’ve seen people Higher refresh rates cut down on latency authentic.
ronment resulting from combinations of wearing. It typically includes a strap both and provide a more realistic simulation.
the real and the virtual, as well as every in- around and over the head, which secures Ideal refresh rates are above 60 frames per VR face
teraction between humans and machines the screen to your face. Some HMDs second. When a user has been in a simulation, a
in relation to those environments and the include built-in headphones as well as sen- few things happen: the head mounted
devices used to create them. XR encom- sors for head tracking. Room scale display tends to leave a temporary imprint
passes VR, AR, and MR, and may come to This is the tethered version of VR that of- on the skin, not unlike a pair of swimming
supplant MR as the most inclusive term for Head tracking fers users the capability of walking around goggles. Users also tend to relax into a
digitally integrated realities. Some HMDs are equipped with special a room and interacting with virtual items, slack-jawed look, with their mouths slight-
sensors that track the exact movements as they walk around in the physical world. ly agape.
Eye tracking of the user’s head. The sensors then send So if you take a step in the real world,
A system that can read the position of the feedback to the system, which moves the you’re also taking a step in the virtual sim-
user’s eyes while using VR. Eye tracking images and audio a user experiences in ulation. For this to work, rooms need to be
software allows a user to aim correctly her field of vision in real-time. mapped in advance.
with her head while in a simulation.
In-ear monitors (IEM) Simulator Sickness
Field of view (FoV) These are earbuds that work with head A nauseated feeling experienced as a
What a user can see in her visual field mounted displays that don’t offer built-in result of simulated motion while wearing
while in a simulation. The viewing angle headphones. an HMD. The issue was well documented
for an average, healthy human eye is about among earlier HMD users, but makers of
200 degrees, so a field of view close to Latency headsets have since taken measures in an
or greater than that is optimal, because Sometimes, the system isn’t capable of
attempt to prevent this effect.
it creates a true sense of being within an showing the images in exact synchroniza-
environment. tion with the user. When that happens, a Social VR
user moves her head, but the images she’s When two or more people are wired in to a
Haptics seeing lag behind a few fractions of a sec- VR simulation and able to share the experi-
In addition to a VR headset, hand-held ond. This lag is a reason why some people ence by observing each other, interacting
controllers are often used. Some are experience “simulation sickness.” or participating in joint activities.

VIDEO
075
STREAMERS
076
SATURATION OF
OTT STREAMING
SERVICES
077
CONNECTED TVS
078
WEBRTC
079
STREAMING
SOCIAL VIDEO

TRENDS 075 - 079 • TENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
VIDEO REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT include Hulu and ESPN+ as well. Live Impact on media organizations
events and cable/ internet bundling Streaming services will continue to
It is estimated that by 2022, video will
are what kept consumers subscrib- erode local broadcast news markets.
account for 82% of all internet traffic,
ing to traditional television services, These services will also disrupt lon-
up 75% over the previous five years.
these two factors no longer represent ger-form television news broadcasts.
A Pew Research Center survey found
a sustainable advantage for traditional
that more Americans prefer to watch
cable and satellite providers. Afford- 076
their news (47%) than to read it (34%)
able internet is available worldwide SATURATION OF OTT STREAMING
or listen to it (19%).2
and prices should only continue to fall. SERVICES
Successful livestreaming of sports Due in part to the success of HBO Now,
075 (either through the league or a social in 2019 networks began widespread
In 2020, streaming services will compete STREAMERS media provider) worldwide serves as rollout of their own over-the-top media
with traditional news and cable. Cable and satellite providers are an effective test case that live events streaming services. Disney+ is launch-
estimated to lose a record 4 million can be successfully streamed through ing its own OTT service, and new or
subscribers in 2019, with far more other platforms. We expect to see updated services are expected from
affordable and customizable stream- the continued rise in sales of devices AT&T/DirecTV, Viacom and Discovery
ing services continuing to lure view- such as the Amazon Fire Stick, Google as well. It’s a crowded space already
ers from the traditional television Chromecast, and Roku, incremental that will become even more saturated
formats. Netflix and Amazon are the increases in subscription rates to in the near future.
two primary leaders in streaming major streaming service providers, Impact on media organizations
today. In 2020, all eyes will focus on and a steady deterioration in cable and Content will become more siloed, as
the new Disney+ service featuring satellite subscriptions over the next the various OTT services tend not to
Marvel and Star Wars content, plus a couple of years. share programming with other pro-
cost-effective bundle option that will

https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html 77
TRENDS 075 - 079 • TENTH YEAR ON THE LIST
VIDEO cont.
077 Mozilla and Opera, and it powers Goo- traditional channels to stream social
CONNECTED TVS gle Hangouts. WebRTC can be used video—and getting paid for it. Insta-
to connect your smartphone to the gram, Snap, Facebook and Twitter
Starting in May 2019, all Samsung
articles you’re reading on your desktop all offer live streaming, but the most
connected TVs come with integrated
or tablet, displaying different compo- recent company to burst on the scene
screen mirroring and content cast-
nents depending on what offers the is China’s TikTok. It is a video sharing
ing capabilities for Apple devices, as
best user experience. If a video won’t app aimed at a younger demographic
well as access to native Apple TV and
display well on your current device, you (over 40% of users are 16-24 years old),
iTunes apps. This is important be-
could be offered a different version but with interesting parameters: vid-
cause it essentially bypasses the sepa-
automatically. Because WebRTC works eos are only 15 seconds long, have to
rate Apple TV device necessary for
from the browser, it’s also part of one fit into a selection of themes (cooking,
accessing content purchased through
Cable and satellite providers are esti- of the other trends we’re continuing to dancing, travel) and are often edited
Apple for most other TVs, giving Sam-
mated to lose a record 4 million sub- watch: connected machines. with special effects and music. In Q1
sung a major edge with Apple users.
scribers in 2019.
Impact on media organizations 2019, TikTok welcomed more than 185
We anticipate a higher penetration of
For news organizations, this means million new users, a 70% increase from
connected TVs in average household,
that rather than bridging computers to Q1 of the previous year. TikTok current-
potentially with integrations from pop-
networks, which must route and relay ly boasts more than 500 million month-
ular streaming services or aggregators
information along various channels, ly active users worldwide. TikTok is
such as Amazon Prime Video, Roku,
WebRTC and similar peer-to-peer owned by ByteDance, whose AI-pow-
Hulu, YouTube, Showtime Anytime,
technologies could help computers ered news app Toutiao is wildly popular
iPlayer (UK-only), All 4 (UK only), Play-
talk to each other without obstruction. in China. Facebook launched a TikTok
station Now, HBO Now, DirecTV Now,
viders. This will force consumers to This may seem like a subtle change in competitor called Lasso in late 2018,
iTunes, and of course Netflix.
make choices based on the strength of Internet architecture, but consider the but it has yet to have a significant im-
their favorite shows and movies, and Impact on media organizations pact in the video sharing space.
implications: you would no longer need
weigh the cumulative costs of multiple Media organizations can take advan-
a third-party operator, like Skype, to Impact on media organizations
subscriptions. Providers with proven tage of connected TVs, offering richer
videoconference with a friend—or to Traditional digital ad revenue could
content (think franchise IP, beloved content to maintain and grow audi-
broadcast live news to consumers. further erode as brands and individu-
syndicated series, etc.) may have an ence and using exclusive integrations
Videos would load and play faster and als connect directly with consumers
advantage, with consumers looking to as a competitive tactic.
would have no need to buffer. through streaming social video chan-
maximize the value of their subscrip- nels. Advertisers will need to capitalize
tion fees, a streaming services proven 078 079 on more contemporary methods, such
commitment to developing exclusive WEBRTC STREAMING SOCIAL VIDEO as influencer partnerships, to access
new high quality content could also be WebRTC is the real-time communica- their target markets.
Instagram is like QVC for millenni-
a deciding factor. tions technology supported by Google,
als. Influencers are bypassing all the

GAMES AND
eSPORTS
080
eSPORTS
081
MIXED REALITY
ARCADES
082
MMOMRGS

TREND 080 • SECOND YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
eSPORTS REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT logged a staggering 800,000 years wildly popular game in the Multiplayer
worth of content viewed in 2018 alone. Online Battle Arena genre—reportedly
eSports is the rapidly growing industry
(Twitch was acquired by Amazon in drew as many as 200 million con-
of competitive digital gaming, specif-
2014.) When professional gamer Rich- current viewers, making it the most
ically when performed professionally
ard Blevins, who goes by the alias Nin- watched eSports event in history.
and for a live streaming, broadcast, or
ja, announced he was leaving Twitch The stakes are now such that eSports
in-person audience. While organized
for the Mixer streaming platform, it is a legitimate full-time job for many
competitive gaming has arguably
made international headlines. top competitors—many of whom em-
existed for decades, advancements in
both gaming technology and streaming One game that entered the global ploy coaches, endure rigorous training
capabilities have led to an astronomi- zeitgeist in the past year was Fortnite, regimens, compete in national leagues
cal rise in its popularity and perceived which raked in $2.4 billion in revenue and rake in seven-figure sums—and
eSports is a fast-growing global industry.
legitimacy in recent years. in 2018 alone. With a reported 250 the industry is poised to define a
million players across all platforms, new paradigm in competitive enter-
EXAMPLES parent company Epic Games was quick tainment for generations to come.
to capitalize on Fortnite’s success, Audiences, prize amounts, and invest-
With a young audience—more than pledging a record $100 million in prize ments are skyrocketing.
80% age 35 or younger—and enormous money for the game’s tournament
revenue potential, eSports is primed to season this year. Tournaments have WHAT’S NEXT
continue its growth as a major cultural helped take gaming from a household
phenomenon in the near future, with Competitive video gaming will be a
pastime to the formally organized and
significant expected impact on the new medal event at the 2022 Asian
internationally recognized competitive
gaming, sports, streaming, entertain- Games, which will take place in Hang-
pursuit we now know as eSports. The
ment, and tech investment sectors. zhou, China. Even the International
2018 World Championship for League
Twitch, the primary streaming portal Olympic Committee has taken note. At
of Legends—like Fortnite, another
for eSports in the Western world, the 2024 Summer Olympics, there will

eSPORTS cont.
be demonstration “virtual and con- as more accessible for the average

nected” events novice than classic athletic sports,
eSports had a global audience of closing the gulf between fans and
approximately 200 million in 2019, competitors, and resulting in a more
a number that’s expected to soar engaged audience.
to over 340 million by 2022, rivaling eSports is also viewed as one of
viewership for major sports leagues the first truly global entertainment
like the NFL. The majority of eSports mediums in its reach and influence,
content is viewed online, with mas- which has investors salivating. The
sive audience segments in China and industry could be worth as much as $2
Korea, and fast-growing fandom in billion by 2022. Sponsorship of teams,
the US, Europe, and worldwide. tournaments, and broadcasts will likely
There are a number of unique fac- continue to represent about a third of
tors that contribute to the industry’s the revenue opportunity, but watch for
growth potential. Because eSports media rights to grow within that time
has relatively low barriers to entry for to about a 40% share.
potential participants—games reward
eye-hand coordination, strategic WATCHLIST
thought and concentration more than Twitch; Mixer; YouTube; Douyu; Huya;
athletic qualities like strength, speed, Tencent; ESPN; Epic Games (Fortnite);
size and agility that dominate many Riot Games (League of Legends);
traditional sports, and access to ex- Activision Blizzard; Cloud9; Andy Dinh
pensive equipment and facilities are and Team SoloMid; aXiomatic; Tyler
not critical factors—it is often viewed Blevins (“Ninja”).

WOMEN GAMERS RISING
Women make up about 35% of Fortnight’s player base,

and in 2020 an all-women, professional eSports team
will be competing on the international circuit. Dating app
Bumble and eSports organization Gen G collaborated to
form Team Bumble, which includes an impressive lineup
of Kristen “KittyPlays” Valnicek, Madison “maddiesuun”
Mann, Tina “TINARAES” Perez, Carlee “Carlee” Gress and
Hannah “Hannah” Reyes.
Dating app Bumble and eSports organiza-

tion Gen G collaborated to form an all-wom-
an professional e-sports team.

SCENARIOS FOR ESPORTS SPINOFFS
OPTIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC CATASTROPHIC

The Revolutionary Gamification of Education A Sandbox for Crowdsourced Architectural eSports Becomes an Arena of Mass Corruption
eSports, especially in connection with mixed Design With the sudden growth of the eSports industry, we
reality tech, will create a new framework for With eSports, especially MMORPGs or MOBA games will reach a point in the next decade where winnings
the gamification of education. With younger that allow characters to build and interact with mod- are at an all-time peak, and regulators haven’t yet
generations in particular becoming increasingly ular structures, platform administrators have access managed to comprehend and keep pace with the
enthralled with and fluent in digital gaming, eS- to a massive amount of dynamic behavioral user complex and rapidly burgeoning platforms. This will
ports expands to the field of education, offering data. As game participation increases and worlds be- leave an open door for bad actors to take advantage of
interactive and incentivized lessons in various come more rich and expansive, game environments the situation by going to great and nefarious lengths
academic topics. A popular current game like will be used to develop and test designs, especially to give themselves an advantage over their foes. De-
Assassin’s Creed draws its characters and for architectural and civic construction. For example, ception and exploitation may take the form of a player
environments directly from historical narra- place two structures at spawn locations in a game implanting bionic enhancements to give themselves
tives—a more accurate and less sensationalized landscape, each rendered according to different an edge—a smart contact lens could detect on-screen
version of this type of game revolutionizes the design proposals for the same project. As play- threats or developments outside the player’s sightline
way students learn history, for example. Game ers spawn at each location, the game can monitor and suggest a strategic response; an adrenal implant
narratives are designed to expose students crowdflow through the structures, effectively A/B could provide a player with a sudden synthetic boost
to key events and cultural elements of a given testing each design and helping engineers decide of energy and alertness on-demand; surgical manipu-
region and era, and a system of digital credits, which will be the most efficient before investing in lation could enhance the muscle and bone structure of
exchangeable for real-world perks, rewards physical construction. Alternatively, admins could the hand to better accommodate the controller. And
those who demonstrate their knowledge reten- simply monitor the structures built by players, those are just within the human body—eSports’ great-
tion through in-game challenges, incentivizing using user data to determine design preferences in est vulnerabilities will lie in the digital inner workings
learning. Extended to various disciplines, the different demographic cross-sections and adjusting of the games being played. Fraudulent teams could
system increases the level of engagement and real-world construction accordingly. Harnessing deploy an algorithm that masquerades as a hu-
information retention of students, raises the the power of this crowd-sourced data is only one of man-controlled character, intervening only to prevent
baseline of education of communities where it the ways that eSports could revolutionize industries critical errors so as to avoid detection. Tournament
is implemented, and through scalability eases beyond the world of gaming. organizers could surreptitiously tweak the response
institutional stress in the education industry times of a competitor’s controller or console at crucial
caused by a disproportionate student-to-teach- moments during a match if they have a furtive betting
er ratio. interest in the competitor’s opponent. Unless and
until an independent authoritative governing body is
established in eSports that has a deep understanding
of the technology and an unwavering moral compass,
the space will become severely vulnerable to corrup-
tion and fraud.
MARC
PALATUCCI
TREND 081 • THIRD YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
MIXED REALITY KEEP
ARCADES
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT and computers were still too costly for WATCHLIST
the average person. We’re in a similar
There are a host of fun, interactive Intel; Nomadic; Grand View Research;
transition now, as VR games move
mixed reality games on the mar- HTC; Samsung; Viveland; Oculus;
from the fringe to the mainstream.
ket—but not everyone can afford the Facebook; Alphabet; VRNISH; Incep-
Mixed Reality gaming parks are open-
computer and gaming equipment nec- tion VR.
ing up everywhere, giving everyone the
essary to play. As a result, a new kind
ability to strap in to a host of games—
of arcade for the next-generation of
but this time around, they don’t take
gamer is coming to a venue near you.
quarters. Startup Virtual World Arcade
offers a membership packages for
EXAMPLES unlimited VR time. In Tokyo, VR Park
Mixed Reality arcades are bringing games MR arcade startup Nomadic operates offers more than basic games—play-
to everyone using new business models locations in Orlando, Florida and San ers can opt-in to swinging harnesses,
and cutting-edge equipment. Rafael, California. Players navigate flying platforms and platforms that
rooms wearing VR headsets and simulate bungee jumping, flying and
backpacks as they explore alternate yes, even falling off skyscrapers.
dimensions.
In the 1980s, video game arcades WHAT’S NEXT
became popular—at first with geeky Competitive video gaming will be a
kids and then the mainstream masses, new medal event at the 2022 Asian
as Pac Man, Galaga and Space Invad- Games, which will take place in Hang-
ers consoles popped up all around the zhou, China. Even the International
world. They took off because kids and Olympic Committee has taken note. At
adults alike both loved playing them— the 2024 Summer Olympics, there will
and because early at-home consoles
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
MMOMRGS REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT imagine wiring in to a gaming sys- WATCHLIST

tem and physically moving your body
MMORPGs—massively multiplayer on- Ubisoft; Sony CSL; Sony PlaySta-
around for hours at a time, swinging
line role-playing games—have been a tionOrbus VR; Oculus; HTC; Survios;
virtual swords at goblins or running to
staple of the online gaming community Alphabet; Apple; The Void; Harmonix;
catch up with friends.
for years. A huge number of players Otherside Entertainment; ILMxLAB;
interact with each other in a virtual VRX Networks; Steel Crate Games;
WHAT’S NEXT
environment. World of Warcraft and Playful Corp; Microsoft; Magic Leap;
Final Fantasy are incredibly popular Sony’s CSL has built a mixed reality CCP Games; Activision Blizzard Enter-
MMORPG’s. Second Life was a virtual headset, allowing collaborative play tainment; Electronic Arts; Tencent.
world—and in 2015, players even built between players who can see each
an MMO inside of it called Remnants others’ views. Orbus VR is an early
OrbusVR is a MMORPG VR game.
of Earth. What’s coming next are attempt at a new kind of game allowing
MMORPGs that are built using mixed players to move around their rooms,
reality. go on quests with friends and chat
with others. It’s likely that a new breed
EXAMPLES of MMORPGs—a sort of hybrid Second
Life and EVE Online—could be lurking
Creating a virtual world is difficult
just around the corner. This could also
enough. Making that world immersive,
set the stage for future MMORPGs that
so that you can enter it using VR or AR,
offer more than quests and drag-
and still interact with other avatars
ons—specialized worlds could be built
under a wide variety of circumstanc-
for online dating, training and even
es, is incredibly complicated. Another
diplomacy.
hallmark of MMORPGs is that they take
a really long time to play. It’s hard to

OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
VR With its non-exclusionary price tag and de-

mocratizing appeal for users of diverse back-
REVOLUTIONIZES,
grounds and interests, VR technology creates
a new culture of fully absorptive social gaming
and new styles of entertainment media con-
BRINGS TOGETHER tent, all accessible from a single device, and

from the comfort of one’s own home. Gaming
THE GAMING AND

and video content as we know it are redefined
entirely, with new hybrid forms emerging that
blend narrative and interactive elements in
ENTERTAINMENT sprawling immersive digital worlds.
INDUSTRIES.
MARC
PALATUCCI

083 084 085 086 087 088 091
PLATFORMS RESTRICTIONS NEW INTEREST IN THE OFFLINE JOURNALISM ABUSING THE
FORCED TO PICK ON BULK AMERICA’S LOCAL SUBSCRIPTION CONNECTIONS AS A SERVICE NOTIFICATION
SIDES MESSAGING NEWS OUTLETS ECONOMY LAYER
MATURES 089
POP-UP 092
NEWSROOMS AND DIGITAL FRAILTY
LIMITED-EDITION
093
BUSINESS
NEWS PRODUCTS
090
MEDIA
CONSOLIDATION
ONE-TO-FEW
PUBLISHING 094
MONETIZING
CHAT-BASED
OF MEDIA &
JOURNALISM
095
THE END OF
ATTENTION
METRICS
096
DISTRIBUTION
WEB 3.0

TREND 083 • FIRST YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
PLATFORMS FORCED KEEP
TO PICK SIDES
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT getting accurate information on indi- troversial_query_blacklist” in You- 30 seconds — were “problematic” or
viduals and the media. The same survey Tube’s codebase. Breitbart and other “abusive.” That data highlights the ways
As hate speech, fake news and rampant
finds that a majority of Americans think right-leaning news sources took the that human flaws (the willingness to
harassment escalate, online platforms
the way platforms select stories for our “blacklist” as clear evidence of political- target another person) can merge with
and social media sites will increasingly
news feeds is a “major problem,” but ly motivated censorship. To Google, the technology (bots and algorithms that
invest in moderation of their plat-
we are divided on whether companies terms on this list merited a different create toxic messages) and be ampli-
forms. This could be with either human
should be regulated to address that search algorithm that would return re- fied by a platform.
reviewers or with algorithms that can
problem. sults from sources with a track record
detect hate or problematic speech. And
When asked about Holocaust denial on of high-quality posts. That feature got WHAT’S NEXT
clear policies will be paramount. The
Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg told Re- more attention in March when it was The threat of regulation and shifting
real challenge, though, will be choos-
code, “I don’t believe that our platform used to direct searches for Brie Larson, public opinion will push major platforms
ing which stakeholders participate
should take that down because I think the lead actress in Captain Marvel, to take action. Initiatives like Face-
in defining those rules, because any
there are things that different people away from user-created videos pro- book’s content policy board will be high-
decision could be politicized.
get wrong.” Shifting gears, Facebook testing the actress and instead toward ly scrutinized and possibly politicized.
announced plans to appoint an external “authoritative sources” like Entertain-
EXAMPLES ment Tonight, ABC and CNN.
If successful, the initiatives could push
board to review policy decisions at the us to have meaningful conversations
Seventy-three percent of Americans
end of last year. Amnesty International launched a proj- about what should be allowed in the
think that misinformation on the inter-
A January story on right-leaning Bre- ect last year to document and quantify public forum; if not, they could further
net is a major problem, according to
itbart prompted controversy with its rampant abuse on Twitter called “Troll polarize debate, pushing users deeper
a Gallup/Knight survey. While there’s
headline, “Google Manipulated YouTube Patrol.” Working with a data analytics into channels with narrow audiences.
consensus that we have a problem,
Search Results for Abortion, Maxine firm, Amnesty found that 7.1 percent of
there’s no agreement about how we
Waters, David Hogg.” The story cited tweets sent to a group of nearly 1,000 WATCHLIST
should move forward: roughly equal-
a leaked conversation from a Google female politicians and journalists — 1.1
sized groups place responsibility for The Coral Project; Perspective API;
forum about the file “youtube_con- million tweets in one year or one every
Facebook; Twitter; Google.

SCENARIOS
WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN Over the next 18 months, platforms and publishers will face more pres-
sure to moderate themselves. Their decisions in the short-term will have
IF PLATFORMS implications for trust in media and civil society. Even as they tout the
FINALLY TAKE A importance of fighting misinformation and fake news, platforms have
STANCE ON SPEECH? shown little appetite to draw clear lines for users — and stick to them.
OPTIMISTIC FRAMING PRAGMATIC FRAMING CATASTROPHIC FRAMING

Social networks and publishers aren’t excited Platforms are largely reactive. While AI-powered and Stung by public relations crises and aware of
to define standards for acceptable behavior, human moderators at Facebook, Twitter, YouTube regulations on acceptable speech around the
but they recognize that doing so is their re- and others make countless decisions every day, they world, platform companies know they need
sponsibility. Because there are as many rules function largely behind the curtain. While posts are to take bigger steps to moderate what they
as platforms, it is increasingly important for sometimes removed, more often they are just made post. But development is slow: Each time they
designers and developers to explain how users less discoverable. Because moderation largely hap- introduce a new tool to curb extreme posts,
should act (not just how they shouldn’t). The pens out of view, platforms make headlines with they engagement drops among a small but measur-
resulting interfaces start meaningful conver- take decisive action like banning prominent users or able segment of the audience. Engagement is
sations about how we engage digitally. Some removing controversial posts. Key players like Face- the life-blood of a digital platform, and the key
people choose to migrate platforms based on book, Twitter and Google don’t coordinate explicitly, product managers know they can’t exacerbate
what posts are allowed, just as newspapers see but they tend to act in lock step, hoping that will fend user declines while solving the toxic speech
subscribers cancel after a controversial editori- of criticism. As a result, users increasingly believe problem. They thread the needle by making it
al or investigation. But because policies are re- that there’s political bias baked into social products. harder to know whether a post was removed or
vised and enforced transparently, most people seen by other users. Users notice fewer posts
make those decisions without losing trust in the that “cross the line,” but mostly because they’ve
media broadly. stopped seeing opinions they disagree with.
SAM
GUZIK
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
RESTRICTIONS ON KEEP
BULK MESSAGING
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WHAT’S NEXT WATCHLIST

News organizations rely on third-party The restrictions likely have more to do Platforms and governments worldwide.
platforms to reach consumers. Restric- with fending off future platform reg-
tions will make it far more difficult to ulation rather than anything else. The
engage everyday people. spread of false information and rumors
on WhatsApp in India, where there are
EXAMPLES more than 400 million users, sparked
a rash of mob-related violence and
As of December 2019, WhatsApp will
lynchings.
no longer allow automated or bulk
messaging. In an era where messaging
In 2018 and 2019, the spread of false infor- apps are becoming more popular than
mation on WhatsApp led to violence. email, Facebook-owned WhatsApp has
been a critical tool for news organiza-
tions wanting to send daily and weekly
newsletters. The company announced
that it will take legal action against any
individual or company who uses the app
to send bulk content after December
7th, when the new restrictions go into
effect.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
NEW INTEREST IN KEEP
AMERICA’S LOCAL
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
NEWS OUTLETS
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES WHAT’S NEXT

The number of newsroom employ- In 2019, Google’s News Initiative part- The restrictions likely have more to do
ees at U.S. newspapers dropped 45% nered with the Associated Press to with fending off future platform reg-
between 2008 – 2017, according to the build a tool for newsrooms to directly ulation rather than anything else. The
Pew Research Center. It’s America’s share content and their coverage plans. spread of false information and rumors
local newspapers suffering the most. The company also partnered with Mc- on WhatsApp in India, where there are
With a record number of mergers and Clatchy to launch new digital news sites more than 400 million users, sparked
closures, there are numerous efforts covering local cities and towns – its a rash of mob-related violence and
underway to rebuild local news opera- first will be based in Youngstown, Ohio, lynchings.
tions. where its daily newspaper The Vindica-
The Times of Northwest Indiana serves a tor was recently shuttered. WATCHLIST
large community in the Midwest. In 2018, Facebook and the Lenfest Platforms and governments worldwide.
Institute for Journalism launched and
funded a local news subscriptions
accelerator. According to Facebook,
accelerator projects led to “tens of
thousands” of new digital subscriptions
and email subscribers across 14 partici-
pating metro newspapers.
There are numerous local news efforts
underway throughout the U.S., with
support from the Knight Foundation,
the Online News Association, the Poyn-
ter Institute and others.
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
THE SUBSCRIPTION KEEP
ECONOMY MATURES
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT moving quickly to build a subscription Studies found that since 2008, prices WHAT’S NEXT
video service, set to launch in the Unit- more than doubled for seven-day home
Whether you call it a subscription, a Look for more services that monitor—
ed States in November, that will bundle delivery at 25 newspapers across the
membership or a donation, we’re living and cancel— unused subscriptions or
Disney, ESPN and Hulu video. And it’s United States.
in the age of audience revenue. For free trials, such as True Bill and Free
not just in media: There are subscrip- Most publishers are pushing to quickly
media companies — and news outlets Trial Card. In California, companies
tion services for toothbrushes (Quip), transform their digital subscription
especially — that means business selling subscriptions must now offer a
“ugly” vegetables (Misfits Market) and business. The Los Angeles Times
incentives are coming into alignment clear way to cancel them online, thanks
heirloom beans (Rancho Gordo). sought to double its digital subscriber
with what consumers want. The risk, to California Senate Bill No. 313, which
however, is that the propagation of Launching a subscription or member- base to 300,000 in 2019, according to a went into effect in July. Watch for
subscriptions will overwhelm audienc- ship program is relatively easy. Keeping memo leaked in July. While the Times consumers to become more discrimi-
es’ willingness (or ability) to pay. If that your subscribers is harder: A report added more than 50,000 new subscrib- nating in their choice of subscriptions,
happens, publishers will need to keep from subscription service platform ers, its net growth was only 13,000 as more companies compete for a fixed
searching for new revenue streams. Zuora estimated an average annualized because of churn. share of wallet. For publishers that
churn rate of nearly 34% for media Even as they recognize that digital pub- means being focused on improving
EXAMPLES business, the highest of any sector lishing is the future, print subscriptions subscriber retention, not just recruiting
studied. Churn isn’t just a legacy media can still make a difference for small lots of new users.
Everywhere you look, a new subscrip-
problem, though. Churn estimates for local publishers. Arkansas Life Maga-
tion product is launching: Conde Nast
on-demand streaming services are zine guaranteed another year of pub- WATCHLIST
announced in January that it was
higher than news media, according to lication after it launched a successful
putting all of its magazine websites — News organizations everywhere; The
estimates cited by The Information. print subscription drive in January. The
historically ad-supported — behind a Membership Puzzle Project; True Bill;
paywall by the end of the year. Local Pivoting to audience revenue is the magazine planned to cutback its pub- Free Trial Card.
newspapers around the country are go-to strategy for news businesses lishing cadence and shift more opera-
pushing to launch new subscriptions or reeling from declining ad revenues. A tion online but still needed the revenue
to refine existing offerings. Disney is January paper published in Journalism generated from print subscribers.

NEAR-FUTURE SCENARIOS
WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN During 2020 – 2023, publishers of all sizes will push to meet aggres-
sive subscription goals. How they proceed will impact the long-term
TO PUBLISHERS AS sustainability for journalism and media.
THE SUBSCRIPTION
ECONOMY MATURES?
OPTIMISTIC FRAMING PRAGMATIC FRAMING CATASTROPHIC FRAMING

By 2023, local news is on a growth trajectory. In 2019 you were a subscriber to your local news- As subscriptions become the default way of
Audience revenue funds much of the news paper; in 2023 you are a member. Not much has consuming news, entertainment and daily
operation, but it’s only one revenue stream for changed, though: You get regular, personal email essentials, consumers are increasingly forced
most publishers. The most successful outlets updates from reporters and editors (and sometimes to make hard choices about how to spend their
are thriving because they invested — in their you even read them!). There is a “Local Deals” section money and time. Churn increases for all sub-
newsrooms, but also in experimental projects in the newspaper’s online “Member Center,” but you scription products, but local news outlets are hit
that opened up new lines of business. Those only visited the page once. Even though you don’t particularly hard because their potential sub-
ventures were fueled by close collaboration read a full article every day (or even every week), you scriber base is geographically limited. In 2020,
between newsroom and business teams; most feel like you get value from the push notifications the decision to go “all in” on audience revenue
often, they relied on input from across the orga- sent directly to your phone. Most of your friends seemed like a great idea, but it left outlets with
nizational structure, not just leadership. aren’t members — they hear the news from you or few options to pivot as the competitive land-
visit the paper’s website once or twice a year. There scape shifted. Publishers failed to anticipate
are enough people like you, however, that the paper the extent that non-media subscriptions would
is stable. The newsroom isn’t as big as it once was, eat up consumer’s budgets. Newspapers and
but its leadership has successfully struck a delicate websites in large cities and dense suburbs have
balance: Asking for more money from members, a critical mass of folks willing to pay, but are
but still maintaining an audience large enough to be constantly fighting to maintain their revenue
valuable to advertisers. because a substantial portion of their audience
is enticed with introductory offers and sales.
Rural areas and small cities are increasingly
news deserts because they lack the population
density to raise enough subscription revenue to
support a newsroom.
SAM
GUZIK
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
OFFLINE KEEP
CONNECTIONS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH

As consumers shift to their mobile de- In the US, consumers now spend an av- Until news consumers have ubiquitous
vices, developers are making sure their erage of six hours a day on their mobile access to cheap, fast data, offline
apps work offline.   devices. As consumers move about our reading will be a necessity. News orga-
days—commuting, walking around the nizations that include seamless, offline
office, or sitting through a Little League experiences will find sticker audiences.
game—they still find themselves offline.
Netflix, YouTube and Amazon Prime WATCHLIST
now feature offline viewing, allowing Tencent; Baidu; Google Play; Pocket;
consumers to temporarily download Amazon; news organizations every-
videos to watch at their leisure.
Japanese news discovery app SmartNews where.
was valued at $1.1 billion in August 2019. A number of news aggregators—includ-
ing Google, SmartNews and Apple—
want to capitalize on the time consum-
ers devote to their screens, even when
the WiFi signal is weak. The Washing-
ton Post’s progressive web app cuts
mobile page load times from 4 seconds
to 80 milliseconds and allows consum-
ers to read news stories without a data
or WiFi connection.

TREND 088 • SIXTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
JOURNALISM KEEP
AS A SERVICE
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT that debt—that problem—sticks around WHAT’S NEXT

longer. It doesn’t ever go away. Tran-
On the fringes, news organizations are News deployed as a service includes
sitioning to “Journalism as a Service”
beginning to provide journalism as a different kinds of parcels: news stories;
enables news organizations to fully re-
service, rather than traditional news APIs; databases that can be used by
alize their value to everyone working in
products. both the newsroom and paying third
the knowledge economy—universities,
parties; calendar plug-ins for upcoming
legal startups, data science compa-
EXAMPLES nies, businesses, hospitals, and even
news events; systems that can auto-
matically generate reports using the
“Software as a Service” is a licensing big tech giants. News organizations
news org’s archives and databases and
and delivery model, where users pay that archive their content are sitting
the like. Services work outside of the
for on-demand access. It’s a model on an enormous corpus—data that can
social media landscape, relieving news
PRX is a popular backbone for podcasters. that in the near-future might be an be structured, cleaned and used by
inevitability. The central challenge organizations of revenue sharing and
numerous other groups.
within news organizations is that there allowing them to fully monetize their
are immediate, acute problems—but services.
reasonable solutions will require long-
term investment in energy and capital. WATCHLIST
The tension between the two always PRX; Twilio; REDEF Group; The Infor-
results in short-term fixes, like swap- mation; The Coral Project; MIT Media
ping out micro-paywalls for site-wide Lab; ProPublica.
paywalls. In a sense, this is analogous
to making interest-only payments on a
loan, without paying down the principal.
Failing to pay down the principal means

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
POP-UP NEWSROOMS KEEP
AND LIMITED-EDITION
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
NEWS PRODUCTS

News organizations are using pop-up During the 2016 and 2018 elections, the We expect to see a flurry of collabora-
newsrooms and limited-edition prod- Electionland coalition brought together tion surrounding the 2020 presidential
ucts to achieve strategic goals. Col- more than 1,000 journalists across the primary and general election, building
laborative newsrooms can focus on a United States to cover problems that on initiatives like the Electionland
single topic or project, boosting reach prevent eligible voters from casting a coalition. News organizations that
and helping uncover deeper stories. ballot. The project provided a struc- launch limited-run news products will
Limited-run podcast, newsletters and ture for seeking out stories on social increasingly have specific subscriber
event series identify engaged readers media and ensuring those stories were engagement goals; these tools could
and help test new ideas. covered. More regularly, groups like the also be used to collect first-party data
Image credit: Erin Lefevre. International Consortium of Investiga- for targeted ad sales.
tive Journalists work together to build
The Electionland coalition hosted multiple
pop-up newsrooms across the country to
scoops across borders. WATCHLIST
report on voting access around the United In March, BuzzFeed distributed a single News organizations everywhere.
States. day print edition in New York. The move
was a stunt, but it generated a stream
of engagement online. At subscrip-
tion-driven publications, limited-run
projects can be an opportunity to deliv-
er additional subscriber benefits or to
develop a new audience.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
ONE-TO-FEW KEEP
PUBLISHING
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT whether it’s paying gamers for Twitch WHAT’S NEXT
streams or contributing to a Kickstart-
Newsletter, podcasts and niche net- Tight-knit communities will become
er campaign for a new idea. Venture
works can captivate and connect small stronger as Facebook emphasizes pri-
capital firm Andreeson Horowitz
audiences. Those products thrive on vate groups and as micro-influencers
announced in July that it would invest
their authenticity, helping them fund- gain credibility. Major media companies
in Substack, suggesting we may see
raise or deliver a curated cohort to ad- have an opportunity to develop audi-
accelerated investment in the space.
vertisers. While small networks can be ences around specific columnists or
valuable, they can also be dangerous: Not all niche networks are high-tech: reporters, but it’s uncertain how that
trusted networks can spread misinfor- In June, Wired reported about the will scale — or what the long-term impli-
mation that’s hard to counter. role of conference calls in spreading cations of fractured audiences will be.
anti-vax propaganda in ultra-Orthodox
Image credit: Mike Ngo.
EXAMPLES Jewish communities in Brooklyn. In WATCHLIST
Individual creators have more power to a community that generally distrusts
reach targeted audiences — and to mone- It’s easier than ever to start a news- RadioPublic; Substack; Revue; PRX;
outside influences and the internet, the
tize those relationships. letter or a podcast and get paid for TinyLetter; Mailchimp; Skype; Garage
recorded conference calls had credi-
your work. Services like Substack and Band; SoundCloud; Libsyn; Stitcher;
bility because they were facilitated by
Revue offer tools to launch a subscrip- Iterable; Auphonic; SpeakPipe; Twil-
a member of the community. That’s a
tion newsletter, while tools like Pat- io; PRI; Patreon, Square; Kickstarter;
similar challenge to the one faced by
reon make it easy to collect recurring Sounderfm.
WhatsApp in 2018, when rumors about
payments for other forms of creation.
child kidnapping spread quickly across
There’s evidence that people are willing
rural India leading to a series of mob
to pay for highly specialized media,
lynchings.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
ABUSING THE KEEP
NOTIFICATION LAYER
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT cations use their apps more frequently, WHAT’S NEXT
and active users are less likely to drop a
Notifications are a powerful tool for As consumers receive notifications
subscription.
delivering time-sensitive updates, from more sources, we expect it will
reminders and messages. They’re often It’s not just news apps that use push get harder to be heard through the din.
the first access point on phones, wear- notifications: Social networking apps iOS already clusters multiple notifica-
ables or connected devices so they and games use them to command our tions from a single source, making it
can capture our attention when we’re attention (see digital addiction), and easier for users to dismiss them whole-
temporarily unoccupied. But precisely messaging apps use them to keep us sale. Publishers and app makers must
because they appear so prominently, connected and local governments use get more sophisticated to ensure their
they can alienate readers. them to broadcast emergency updates. messages don’t get lost — helping users
U.S. President Donald Trump ordered understand what types of notifications
Push alerts can drive engagement. But if
EXAMPLES a nationwide test of the National will be sent before asking them to opt-
abused, they can alienate readers.
Wireless Emergency Alert System in, for example, so people can make an
News organizations have been refin- in October 2018. That alert generat- informed choice.
ing their push notification strategies ed headlines because users cannot
for several years and consumers are opt-out of presidential alerts, but the WATCHLIST
starting to respond. A growing share of underlying system is a routine tool for
consumers around the world are now News organization’s everywhere, Apple,
emergency managers. The Federal
allowing push notifications to get news Android, Local governments and emer-
Communications Commission said
stories. Publishers commonly see dra- gency managers.
local governments have sent more than
matic spikes in app usage when an alert
40,000 alerts since 2012.
is sent. Users who opt-in to push notifi-

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
DIGITAL FRAILTY REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT accessible because of a Google project DIGITAL FRAILTY IN

Digital Frailty is when digital assets
to scan old newspapers, but the digital GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC
are impermanent or easily broken by
archive is offline. INFORMATION
technical glitches. In the past several The Voice is just one example of how The Environmental and Data Gov-
years, we’ve seen widespread examples compelling journalism can be lost when ernance Initiative estimates that
of important journalism being erased organizations go out of business: A Pu- the Trump administration removed
from the web because of media consol- litzer Prize-winning investigative series one-quarter of all references to climate
idation or because sites were no longer about a collision that killed 20 children change on government web pages. This
being maintained. This is becoming and devastated a Colorado community was an effort to support the Trump
more common in other sectors and in went offline when the Rocky Mountain administration’s ideas and policies. The
our everyday lives, as users rely heav- News went out of business. Trump administration also removed
The Internet Archive was able to save some
of the files lost during a MySpace service ily on ephemeral tools like Instagram There’s also risk when newsrooms turn LGBTQ content from federal websites,
migration, but millions of pictures, videos Stories or messages that expire. to external tools or services. Storify scrubbed a lot of civil rights information
and audio files were still lost. was a popular tool for aggregating off of WhiteHouse.gov and scrubbed
DIGITAL FRAILTY IN THE NEWS social media posts around a major news the HHS.gov website of healthcare
The Village Voice closed after a long event. A team of journalists working for data. While digital deletions can be po-
history of award-winning investigative Reported.ly, a now-defunct experiment litically motivated, they’re not always:
reporting. When investor Peter Barbey run by First Look Media, won a 2015 An archive of administration curated
bought the Voice in 2015, he promised it Online Journalism Award for breaking news updates (primarily from conser-
would “survive and prosper.” Two years news for reporting on the shooting at vative outlets) was removed from the
later Barbey closed the print edition Charlie Hebdo magazine in real-time. White House website last year.
and in August 2018 he closed its doors All that reporting lived on Storify but And what about a president’s tweets?
entirely. Copies of the print edition are was lost when the platform went down The U.S. National Archives says that
in 2018.

DIGITAL FRAILTY cont.

posted tweets are considered presi- Facebook’s internal data shows public The Internet Archive and others try
dential records and requested that the sharing fell in almost every country in to create snapshots in time, but the
White House save deleted or altered 2018, total engagement stayed steady services can struggle with dynamic
tweets. The COVFEFE Act (a back- because users were creating Stories. sites that rely heavily on JavaScript.
ronym for one of President Trump’s Most material disappears unintention- How will future societies learn from the
unexplained tweets) sought to reduce ally, but that’s not always the case: past if they cannot study the first draft
confusion by amending the Presi- Platforms could remove posts that vio- of our present history? Do we have an
dential Records Act to include social late their terms of service, even if that obligation to preserve the digital con-
media posts, but it stalled in the House. information is newsworthy or relevant versations shaping society? Should we
Some independent websites, includ- to a public debate. Twitter has said it be working harder to ensure that digital
ing ProPublica’s Politwoops project, will make exceptions to its rules for cer- archives aren’t lost?
are now archiving President Trump’s tain public figures but other platforms
deleted tweets. Other news organiza- might act differently. WATCHLIST
tions are following suit and applying the Snap; Instagram; Facebook; Pro-
same standard to other officials, like WHAT’S NEXT publica; Offshore Journalism Project;
The Intercept, which reported on and Internet Archive; Archive.is; Compet-
preserved racist posts by Border Patrol News executive Mario Tedeschini-Lalli
explains how Italy’s largest news web- itor Screenshots; news organizations
agents to a private Facebook group. everywhere.
site, Repubblica.it, didn’t originally use
DIGITAL FRAILTY AND a content management system. When
PERSONAL ACCOUNTABILITY the site installed a CMS for the first
time, everything published before it
MySpace announced in March that was lost forever. Tedeschini-Lalli, along
it had accidentally deleted all of the with colleagues Nicolas Kayser-Bril,
photos, videos and audio files upload- Anne-Lise Bouyer, Pierre Romera and
ed to the platform before 2015, which Defne Altiok, launched the Offshore
included an estimated 50 million songs. Journalism Project—they hope to pre-
The Internet Archive found a fraction serve national and private archives and
of those, but the incident remains a ensure that quality journalism lives on,
cautionary tale for those who assume even if political appointees and govern-
their uploads are stored forever. ments disagree.
While there’s archival value to the files Sometimes, new technology obviates
we post online, users are increasingly the old, before anyone has had a chance
choosing ephemeral formats to share: to convert files or develop archives.
The Information reports that while

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
MEDIA KEEP
CONSOLIDATION
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT Media, Gannett and Gatehouse Media — ing the current Tribune-Nexstar deal,
the two biggest newspaper publishers forcing the firms to sell off stations in
Consolidation continues as margins
in the United States — announced plans 13 markets to address antitrust con-
shrink for traditional media companies.
to merge. cerns.
The regulatory environment is shifting
for big telecoms, local access TV sta- Even before the Gannett-Gatehouse The value of media megamergers like
tions and everyone in between, the full merger, a wave of local media con- the AT&T-Warner deal is unclear. But
implications of which are still unclear. solidation was underway. In January, deals between local publishers con-
Gatehouse Media bought Schurz Com- tinue because they can eke out cost
EXAMPLES munication, an Indiana-based chain savings to maintain profit margins.
of regional newspapers serving four In journalism, media consolidation
2019 saw the completion of mega deals
states, and added 20 papers to its port- threatens to shrink newsroom staff
Gannett and Gatehouse announced a years in the making: Disney and Fox
folio of 145 daily newspapers. Hearst and diminish the quality of reporting:
merger to become the largest publisher of completed their merger in March, a deal
Newspaper acquired seven weekly A database of U.S. newspapers main-
newspapers in the United States. so large that shifted control of Hulu.
titles from Hersam Acorn Newspapers tained by the Center for Innovation and
An appeals court gave final clearance
in October 2018, creating a network of Sustainability in Local Media at the
for AT&T’s acquisition of Warner Media eight daily newspapers and 20 weeklies University of North Carolina at Chapel
in February, rejecting the Justice’s
in Connecticut alone. Hill estimates that at least 1,000 of the
argument that the deal was anti-com-
In December 2018, Tribune Media and nation’s 7,200 newspapers have lost
petitive. A long-rumored tie-up of CBS
Nexstar announced merger plans that more than half of their newsroom staffs
and Viacom happened in 2019.
would create the biggest operator of since 2004. Those cuts can have a real
Legacy news publishers faced intense impact on reporting quality. Duke Uni-
local television stations in the country.
merger pressure this year. Just weeks versity research found that local staff
Last year, Sinclair attempted to buy Tri-
after Gannett defended itself from a produced fewer than half the stories in
bune Media but the deal fell apart. Now,
hostile takeover bid from Digital First a typical community news outlet.
the Department of Justice is scrutiniz-

MEDIA CONSOLIDATION cont.

FCC Chair Ajit Pai’s push to deregulate ogy with the potential to disrupt exist-
has accelerated the pace — and ben- ing telecoms substantially. The FCC is
efits — of consolidation. Tech compa- already evaluating proposals for such
nies, interest groups and internet users services from Boeing and Amazon, so
came together to protest the FCC’s expect to see regulation in that space.
decision to repeal net neutrality rules in The FCC will also need to consider new
2017. That decision gave internet ser- regulations for radio frequencies in
vice providers a right to create different space generally.
rules for different types of content —
hypothetically, AT&T could give prefer- WATCHLIST
ential treatment to data from a Warner Gannett; New Media Investment Group;
Media streaming service, giving a leg- Center for Innovation and Sustainabil-
up over Netflix and others. More recent ity In Local Media at the University of
FCC votes may have a more immediate North Carolina at Chapel Hill; local ac-
impact on the local news landscape and cess channels; the FCC; Tribune Media;
corporate profits: At the FCC’s August Nexstar; Sinclair Broadcast Group; Cox
meeting, the Republican-appointed Media Group; Meredith Corp; Hubert
majority voted to limit the ability of Burda Media; Asahi Shimbun Company;
municipalities to asses “franchise fees” Microsoft; Grupo Globo; News Corp;
that support local access TV stations Univision; Gannett; Gatehouse Media,
and other community services. The Hearst, Digital First Media; AT&T; FCC;
new rule will likely boost profits and ITU; Disney; Comcast; Sinclair Broad-
reduce the capacity for publicly-funded cast Group; CBS; news organizations
media to compete. everywhere.
WHAT’S NEXT
Deregulation under FCC Chair Ajit Pai
will continue. This will have far-reach-
ing implications that we will feel for
years to come. The FCC’s August 2019
docket included new regulations for
satellite licensing, and those rules spe-
cifically excluded satellites that provide
broadband internet access — a technol-

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
MONETIZING CHAT- KEEP
BASED JOURNALISM
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WHAT’S NEXT The cost of acquiring new

Chat and messaging platforms are cen- There will be an opportunity for journal- customers will continue to
tral hubs for news and information, and ists to develop one-to-one relationships rise in 2020. This indicates
new features entice consumers to pay with their readers and drive much more a troubling imbalance. It is
micro amounts of money for messaging engagement and interaction at a level
and content. more advanced than in the past. Using
unlikely that customers will
segmentation and targeted content, earn back what it cost to ac-
EXAMPLES organizations could offer interactions on quire them in the near-term
specific topics that are timely, as well as unless organizations have a
Tencent’s WeChat was one of the first
contact with relevant experts where the
to include micropayments systems
interaction and the knowledge are paid
long-term strategy to keep
WeChat is a popular social media app in into its messaging platform, which is those customers engaged.
China and a popular way to make pay- primarily used in China. Former journal- for directly. While chat-based publish-
ments. ists, film critics and industry experts ing might be lucrative in the near-term, Organizations should pilot
are Key Opinion Leaders, or “KOLs,” and publishers are still beholden to the plat- new alternatives to reduce
forms, which could decide to ban bulk
now sell stories via WeChat to a broad acquisition costs – and they
base of readers. Some columnists can messaging as WhatsApp did in 2019.
should be ready to abandon
earn as much as $4,500 per article. In
the wake of the U.S. banning Huawei WATCHLIST failing programs.
from doing business with American Apple; Google; Amazon; Microsoft;
companies, the company reached out Facebook; PayPal; WeChat; WeMedia;
to dozens of high-profile American law, Weibo; Line; Alibaba; Venmo; Aliba-
tech and media experts offering them ba; Mastercard; Visa; Citibank; BBVA;
lucrative KOL contracts. Other major Santander; ING; Slack; blogging plat-
platforms, including Facebook, are also forms; Chinese internet authorities.
adding payments functionality.
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
THE END OF KEEP
ATTENTION METRICS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
"The numbers are all fking KEY INSIGHT in the digital marketing and advertising analytics platforms that are more dis-
space is wondering what’s next for met- cerning, as well as more home-grown
fake, the metrics are bullshit, The attention economy, which spawned
rics. Already, publishers and advertis- engagement metrics that reflect how
the agencies responsible for listicles, eHows and tweet roundups,
ers will question the validity of metrics people value content.
enforcing good practices isn’t as easily measured as previously
that they, themselves, cannot verify.
thought.
are knowing bullshitters WATCHLIST
enforcing and profiting off all WHAT’S NEXT
EXAMPLES Nielsen; Chartbeat; Amazon Connect;
the fake numbers and none In November 2018, the US Department
Newsrooms have relied on real-time Google Analytics; IAB; Tow Center for
analytics platforms for years. Chartbeat Digital Journalism at Columbia Univer-
of the models make sense at of Justice indicted eight people for
blinks and nags every editor’s station. sity; Annenberg School of Communica-
scale of actual human users." massive ad fraud that resulted in $36
Broadcasters rely on Nielsen ratings. tion & Journalism and the University of
million in fake ads. They were cleverly
But if so much of internet traffic is fake, Southern California; Vox Media; Axios;
ARAM ZUCKER-SCHARFF able to use bots to fake clicks and even
why bother with analytics platforms that Washington Post; New York Times; Wall
DIRECTOR OF AD TECH FOR THE WASHINGTON POST, mouse movements to mimic human
IN A TWEET ON DECEMBER 26, 2018. are measuring everything, rather than Street Journal.
consumers. Researchers estimate
measuring only what’s likely to be real?
that more than half of web traffic is
fake. This is a serious problem for Anyone creating content needs to
both publishers who rely on ad reve- understand the ebb and flow of traffic
nue and advertisers who need satisfy and how one piece of content fits into
client metrics. Now that Facebook has the broader scope of the organization.
announced that it is weighing personal We also expect to see news and other
posts over news stories from publish- content as organizations develop new
ers, and Google has launched a native models to bring transparency in metrics
ad-blocking client in Chrome, everyone to staff—without jeopardizing editorial
integrity. Look for sharper real-time

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
WEB 3.0 REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT much easier with advanced techniques complex processes and enable trans-
such as data mining, natural language actions that were previously not pos-
The next iteration of the web is being
processing (NLP), and text analytics. sible. On web 3.0, media companies
accelerated by decentralization and
Second, machines can collaborate might be able to set up micropayment
collaboration.
directly with one another through systems or enable users to have more
artificial intelligence and machine control over their privacy and data.
EXAMPLES learning. Eventually, machines will be
The internet is always evolving. Web able to teach one another. WATCHLIST
1.0, the beginning of the internet age,
There are already projects like this Blockstack; Lightning Labs; RSK.
introduced static web pages, e-com-
underway. In media, Otoy is lowering
merce and email. The web 2.0 enabled
3D/ visual effects production costs
Web 3.0 is the next iteration of the internet. decentralized collaboration and cre-
by creating a decentralized, distrib-
ativity by ushering in social networks,
uted network of partners that can
sharing economies, cloud computing
chip in spare processing power. The
and dynamic self-sustaining content
Interplanetary File System (IPFS) is a
repositories like Wikipedia and Github.
peer-to-peer hypermedia protocol that
Distributed ledgers can encourage facilitates decentralized file sharing
massive collaboration on a larger scale and cloud computing.
and usher in web 3.0.
With web 3.0 – the Semantic Web – WHAT’S NEXT
collaboration and decentralized cre- In web 3.0, protocols and platforms
ation is accelerated for two reasons. may have much more potential for val-
First, gathering, mining, and under- ue creation because web browsers and
standing unstructured data will be mobile applications can perform more

SPATIAL
COMPUTING
097
DIGITAL TWINS
098
VOLUMETRIC
FIELDS OF VISION
099
DYNAMIC LIGHT
FIELDS
100
SPATIAL
COMPUTING
CLOUDS

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
SPATIAL COMPUTING REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT 097 building models from available data. In
Spatial computing makes use of the DIGITAL TWINS a spatial computing environment, light
fields need to be dynamic. Researchers
physical space around us, intermixing What about deploying replicas of ob-
are working on dynamic light fields that
the data from the physical world with jects, places and even people in a spatial
can collect light data and then project
your personal data as well as digital computing environment? The concept
digital objects into the world in a way
content. Whereas augmented reality of a “digital twin” refers to a digital repli-
that mimics human sight.
projects digital content as an overlay ca that can be used for many different
to your physical surroundings, spatial purposes and can respond as directed.
100
computing imports your physical sur-
SPATIAL COMPUTING CLOUDS
roundings and uses that data to make 098
Smart glasses will soon bring spatial com- fast computations. This results in dig- VOLUMETRIC FIELDS OF VISION At the moment, spatial computing sys-
ital objects that observe walls, floors tems still require that hardware is worn.
puting to everyday people. Spatial computing is defined by spe-
and couches – and interfaces that still But researchers are hoping to build
cific volumes and spaces. Rather than
follow the laws of physics. more functionality in the cloud. Storing
capturing a traditional 2D field of view
environment data, past experiences and
Magic Leap is perhaps the best-known measurement, spatial computing in-
other programs across multiple users
spatial computing company. Its gog- stead captures multidimensional data,
and devices in the cloud will eventually
gles turn the physical environment into such as depth and volume.
help spatial computing systems to scale.
a computable one, and the company
isn’t planning to stop there. In the next 099 WATCHLIST
10 – 15 years, Magic Leap hopes to DYNAMIC LIGHT FIELDS
develop city-scale spatial computing Magic Leap; Google; Facebook; Micro-
A light field measures the light flowing in
environments, where everyday people soft; Presence Capital; Amazon; Snap;
every direction. For traditional computer
can interact with physical and digital Niantic Labs; Apple; YOUar; Scape;
graphics, light fields are produced by
realms simultaneously. Aromni; 6d.ai; Blue Vision; Ubiquity6;
taking high-definition photographs or
Ogmento; Super Ventures.
CONSUMER
ELECTRONICS
101 104 107 110
SMART CAMERAS THE END OF SMART WATCHES, NEUROTECH-
REMOTE CONTROL RINGS AND NOLOGIES
102 105
BRACELETS
111
SMART CAMERA
NEWS NETWORKS SMART ER 108 DIGITAL
GLASSES SMART BELTS ADDICTION
103 106
AND SHOES
NETWORKED
SMART DEVICES HEARABLES / 109
EARABLES CONNECTED
CLOTHING

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
CONSUMER KEEP
ELECTRONICS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT The broader consumer electronics the United States, to install Alexa in its
market will continue to grow. By 2023, houses, and there are Amazon homes
Consumer electronics – from smart
we expect one third of the world’s pop- all over the country: in Sarasota, Fla.,
watches, to smart mirrors and smart
ulation to own at least one computing in Bucks County, Pa., in Howard Coun-
doorbells – will increasingly play a role
device (smartphone, laptop) and to ty, Md., and in Fresno, Calif. Amazon
in how people get their news and en-
either have access to or own one other homes using the Ring smart doorbell
tertainment media. As of now, nearly
connected device, such as a smart system come with built-in neighbor-
all wearables require a smartphone or
plug, speaker, or pedometer. hood surveillance: Families type in
computer to see and report data, ad-
the name of their community to see
just settings and archive information.
SMART HOMES security camera footage from their
But that will change as smartphones
One key development heading into neighbors.
Amazon’s Smart Basics Microwave fade to the background.
2020 is the widespread extension of In a home powered by Amazon ap-
responds to your voice.
BOOMING MARKETS devices into our homes. The devices pliances, big tech companies could
in use today and those which will be perpetually collect, analyze and store
The market for connected gadgets is
deployed over the next decade gives diagnostic data. For example, Alexa
booming. International Data Corpora-
consumers access to bundled en- devices could take baseline reads of
tion measured 31% growth in the wear-
tertainment packages and shopping our voices and make determinations
ables market alone during Q4 2018, but
platforms, which rely on our personal of whether someone has early-onset
the holiday season wasn’t an anomaly.
and behavioral data. They are our pri- Parkinson’s Disease or has suffered a
Growth continues along an upward
mary modes of sending and receiving mild stroke. Amazon partnered with
trajectory into 2019. The Future Today
information. Kohler to produce an Amazon-powered
Institute estimates that by the end of
toilet (it is already in-market). Future
2020, global wearable device sales For example, since 2017, Amazon has
partnered with Lennar, the largest versions could include automatic
could top 370 million.
residential construction company in testing for glucose, acidity, protein

CONSUMER ELECTRONICS cont.

and white blood cells. Additionally, cess to camera footage. Patents filed U.S. that were able to request video
floors fitted with sensors could collect by researchers at Amazon show an footage from Ring doorbell users.
someone’s weight, posture and gait extended scope beyond the doorstep Though anyone can download the free
and look for sudden changes. Already, to driveways, streets, narrow passage- mobile app and gain access to videos
Amazon’s larger network infrastruc- ways between or behind buildings, and posted, even if they aren’t Ring users.
ture connects to fitness and other virtually anywhere the smart cameras The app shows video clips that can be
wearable devices. Its joint venture are placed. Google’s Nest system sim- annotated by uploaders, while a “News
with JP Morgan Chase and Berkshire ilarly identifies faces and allows users Team” supplements the news feed with
Hathaway is investigating alternatives to input names, and it can be trained short stories about burglaries, fires
to our current insurance systems. to recognize friends, family and those and other events. Some of the con-
who consumers don’t want near their tent is curated from sources like the
IMPACT ON NEWS AND homes. Smart cameras automatically Associated Press. The app can easily
ENTERTAINMENT COMPANIES lock on to a face, zoom in, and follow be manipulated. There are numerous
The home automation systems built that person as they move around. Mil- instances of people uploading and
and deployed by the big tech compa- lions of hours of security camera foot- intentionally mis-tagging photos of
nies are not currently interoperable. age are now being uploaded regularly. people, of reporting “suspicious” activ-
Consumers will have to decide be- Consumers can access it, share and ity without any real evidence or data,
tween just a few primary platforms, repost it as they want, and give third and of everyday racism.
which will have downstream impacts parties access to footage as well. To
for news and entertainment media allay privacy concerns, Nest released a 103
companies. There is both opportunity firmware upgrade that turns a light on NETWORKED SMART DEVICES
and risk ahead. each camera anytime it’s recording. For the past decade, researchers
have been working on device handoff:
101 102 creating an opportunity for devices to
SMART CAMERAS SMART CAMERA NEWS communicate with each other to gain
NETWORKS efficiencies across the entire network.
In 2018 Amazon announced a new
Amazon’s Ring includes an app called In 2020, more of our smart home appli-
feature for its Ring doorbells. The sys-
Neighbors that allows users to post ances will collaborate on the backend.
tem automatically recognizes people,
the videos they’ve recorded — and it For example, Innit, which launched in
making it easier for people to see and
encourages them to post videos and 2013, is a platform that helps kitchen
track everyone coming to their home
photos of suspicious activity, crime appliances talk to one another, even if
or apartment. There are added fea-
and other issues within neighbor- your appliances come from several dif-
tures, too: in some communities, local
hoods. As of August 2019, there were ferent brands. In 2019, Innit is partner-
police are asking residents to opt-in to
a program giving law enforcement ac- 225 police departments around the ing with Google Home Hub and other


smart displays to help further connect equipped with far-field microphone 106 107
your kitchen. There are lots of other arrays. Samsung will keep its remotes HEARABLES / EARABLES SMART WATCHES, RINGS
options: the Bosch Home Connect for now, but they will start to rely
 In-ear computers, otherwise known AND BRACELETS
smart kitchen line connects to Nest heavily on its Bixby smart assistant. All
Protect. If you forget that pizza in the as “hearables” or “earables,” coach The Motiv ring is a fitness tracker mon-
of this sounds exciting – unless you are
oven and it starts to catch fire, your us through fitness classes, serve as itoring steps, heart rate and activity,
sick, are a non-native English speaker,
Nest smoke detector will tell the oven our personal assistants and trans- but it also responds to gesture. You
or aren’t able to speak.
to turn itself off. In the coming year, late conversations for us in real time can program it to automatically log
— in addition to playing music. Ap- into accounts on Amazon, Google and
we’ll see more integrations across 105
ple’s second-generation AirPods are Facebook, and it can be used to con-
brands and appliances. SMART ER GLASSES
compatible with Siri, while Samsung’s trol Alexa without speaking. The Oura
In July 2019, Magic Leap graduated Galaxy Buds offer voice assistance via ring collects biometric data to create a
104
the first game from its Independent its Bixby assistant. Jabra’s Elite Sport baseline for the wearer, and then over
THE END OF REMOTE CONTROL
Creator Program, a 3D puzzle of the earbuds offer real-time fitness coach- time it makes suggestions to optimize
Video content creators will need to world’s most recognizable landscapes. ing, heart rate sensing and VO2 Max sleep, activity and attentiveness.
improve tagging, titles and meta-da- The spatial computing system and testing, and they’re both sweat and PayPal built a prototype ring capable
ta automation — and fast. In 2020, glasses project light directly into the water resistant. The Run Free Bio Pro of making payments by simply waving
remote controls will be equipped with user’s eye, making it seem as though earbuds from Soul Electronics capture your hand across an NFC terminal. Yet
voice recognition systems. Subscrib- digital objects exist in the real world. a lot of data: running cadence, gait, a decade before we had smart rings,
ers to Comcast’s Xfinity already have While Magic Leap’s glasses aren’t yet step symmetry and heart rate. There Microsoft was already experimenting
access to voice-controlled remote commercially available for a general are also hearables that quantify a with “skinput,” which turned a person’s
controls, which allow users to search audience, its developer platform and user’s hearing profile to create a more arm and hand into an interactive
for actors, ask questions about shows, corporate partnership ecosystem are tailored experience. Nuheara IQbuds interface. You could answer a call by
and bypass the menu system to quickly both growing fast. Microsoft’s Holo- offers personalization while allowing tapping your fingers, or pressing your
find what they want to watch. We tend Lens 2 is set to start shipping in late users to mix digital and real-world palm to skip a song on your playlist.
to associate remote controls just with 2019. Microsoft recently demonstrated sound. Amazon, which doesn’t offer its Now Google’s Project Soli is advancing
our televisions, but you can expect to an impressive real-time application. A own hearables, made a developer kit that skinput idea: in December 2018,
see new uses for remotes in the years woman who’d originally given a speech available via Qualcomm so that Alexa the FCC approved its proposed tests
to come. However as digital voice in English was recreated as a pho- voice recognition can be added to any of a new chip that uses radar to track
assistants become more integrated torealistic hologram delivering that hearables using Android smartphones. micromotions. The Soli chip (or some-
with various consumer electronics, same speech in Japanese. (Don’t force thing like it) could be embedded into
smart remotes will give way to embed- connections between the commer- glasses, rings, bracelets,— virtually any
ded speakers and microphones within cial failure of Google Glass and what connected thing you might wear.
our devices. TCL Roku TVs will soon be comes next. Glass was a successful
technology in search of a market.)


108 109 one glove, her actions are sent to her
SMART BELTS AND SHOES CONNECTED CLOTHING partner wearing the other. Sony has
been filing patents for haptic glove
In early 2018, Baltimore-based Under A new generation of smart clothes be-
controllers, which would simulate the
Armour launched its next-genera- gan trickling onto the market in 2019,
physical sensations of slicing, punch-
tion set of connected running shoes, from smart gloves to pajamas with
ing and shooting.
whose foam soles include an acceler- infared energy to help your muscles
ometer, a gyroscope, a battery and a recover faster from a hard workout to
Bluetooth module. The shoes collect yoga pants that alert you when you’re
and store data, allowing you to go out of alignment in poses. Pivot Yoga
out for a run without having to bring makes connected yoga pants—you
along your smartphone. They also set read that right—that monitor your
a baseline the first time you use them, downward dogs and help you adjust
and then track distance, stride length your form. Their connected cloth-
and your running cadence over time. ing syncs to an app, through which a
The shoes connect to Under Armour’s digital assistant will tell you when to
UA Record app, which tracks fitness turn your left hip or to move your legs
and wellness data. French company three inches back on the mat. Apple
E-Vone built a smart shoe for senior has patented “force-sensing” fabrics,
citizens and those with reduced mo- including a glove that could be used to
bility. It includes fall detection, so that monitor our blood pressure and heart
if the wearer falls, it sends an alert. rates. New smart bras, intended for
Rather than purchasing a single pair, athletes and fitness enthusiasts, cap-
users subscribe to a service – they tures biometric data to track cardiac
automatically get a new pair annually. and pulmonary activity. Meanwhile in
Korean-based tech startup Welt Corp Kenya, a researcher invented smart
offers a smart belt that can detect gloves that can translate sign language
falls, too – and it sends push notifica- into speech. The assistive technology,
tions if it senses that you’ve eaten too called Sign-IO, use gesture recog-
much. Others in the market include nition and sensors embedded in the
Altra IQ for fitness optimization and gloves. Canadian researchers at Simon
self-charging Solepower shoes that Fraser University designed a set of
generate power for your cell phone interconnected gloves to help transmit
while you’re on the move. a sense touch through the internet.
When someone moves her fingers in

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
NEUROTECHNOLOGIES REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT trol a computer or type at 100 words- WHAT’S NEXT

per-minute, but it’s a step forward and
Voice interfaces like Siri, Alexa and Startups Neurable and Trimble said
an indication that Facebook will push
Google Assistant are getting more they’re collaborating on brain-com-
forward with its research.
sophisticated, but researchers are puter interface projects in transpor-
already looking ahead: Prototypes A team at the University of Califor- tation, architecture and engineering.
look to connect humans and mammals nia, San Diego has found a way to use Paris-based NextMind secured $4.6
directly to computers. With these electric impulses in the eyeball to million in funding to bring direct brain
human-machine interfaces, people increase and decrease magnification command technology to the gaming
can communicate via thought alone, on a contact lens. Biomedical scien- industry. Billionaire Elon Musk showed
which promises new options for those tists at the University of Minnesota and off research in July from his Neuralink
suffering from stroke and paralysis. at Carnegie Mellon University reported human-machine interface project,
Image credit: Facebook.
progress in June on an interface that focusing on “brain threads” that can
Emily Mugler is an engineer on the BCI allows patients to move a cursor along
team at Facebook Reality Labs. She joined
EXAMPLES sense brain signals and a device for
a screen and control a robotic arm us- inserting them into the brain— likely
Facebook after learning it was pursuing Facebook announced that it was trying
ing a brain-wave sensor sitting on their an effort to recruit more scientists.
a non-invasive, wearable BCI device for to create a headband to allow people
head — a technique that could make Even so, it will be some time before
speech during a 2017 F8 talk. to type with their thoughts in 2017; this
human-machine interfaces more ac- human-machine interfaces make their
year, researchers at the University of
cessible. This work builds on research way from the fringes to the main-
California, San Francisco collaborated
at the Center for Neuroengineering stream — and it could take longer if
with Facebook and published some
at Duke University, which created a outsized expectations for this technol-
early results. Their paper describes
real-life Iron Man suit, allowing a para- ogy outpaces its rate of practical ap-
progress toward a device that could
plegic man to walk out onto a soccer plications. Now is the time to consider
recognize when a user was asked a
field and kick the first ball of the 2014 broader implications for this technolo-
question — and sense their answer. World Cup. gy — privacy, security, inclusivity — and
That’s a far cry from letting users con-

NEUROTECHNOLOGIES cont.
to ensure that they are built into the Entertainment, media and
products from the beginning.
technology companies
WATCHLIST should develop strategies for
Stanford University; Elon Musk; Neura-
wearable systems. Key ques-
link; Duke University’s Center for Neu- tions to answer include:
roengineering; University of Southern
California; University of Washington’s • How will your organization
Center for Sensorimotor Neural En- interact with consumers via
gineering; Johns Hopkins University; wearables?
Carnegie Mellon University; Starlab;
Case Western Reserve University; • How will consumer expectation
Penn State University; Johns Hopkins change as a result of wearables?
Applied Physics Laboratory; DARPA. For example, will they want to
feel the impact of a football
player making a tackle? Will
broadcasters be able to transmit
shows with real-time translation?
How will consumers get news
stories via wearables?
• What are the ethical

considerations of using
wearables to send content? To
receive it?
• How might your organization use

neurotechnology some day? What
would be your data governance
requirements?
• What is the business case

for wearables within your
organization?

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
DIGITAL ADDICTION REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT A problem that’s only been recognized device features a smaller screen and
seriously for several years has become a stripped down interface. Google and
Habit-forming features are crucial for the success of digital products. A growing
mainstream enough that it’s the basis Apple continue to develop features
body of research highlights the negative impacts that those sticky features can
for a musical. that help users monitor their digital
have on mental health and wellbeing. Some new products aim to find a technical
Facebook has acknowledged how pas- well-being.
solution to digital addiction, but the long-term implications are unclear.
sively consuming information can be To help college students retain infor-
EXAMPLES linked to feeling badly. In March 2019, mation while studying digitally, a team
the World Health Organization warned including a designer, a psychologist,
Dealing with digital addiction is the subject of “Octet,” an acapella musical that of the risks of giving young children and a behavioral economist from
had its world premiere at The Signature Theater in New York this year.
too much screen time. A meta-analy- Australia’s RMIT University launched
There // under the bridge // There’s a monster // Lurking on the surface sis of 33 studies on how people read Sans Forgetica, a typeface designed
of your mind // All the time published in the Journal of Research to trick our brains into retaining more
in Reading found that “readers may information.
[...] be more efficient and aware of their
performance when reading from paper WHAT’S NEXT
As you watch the monster // It digs deeper in your brain // Transforming compared to screens.”
neural pathways // with its toxic refrain // The path gets bigger // The Every business model for media hinges
bath becomes a street // The street becomes a super wide superdumb As the costs of digital interaction be- on commanding the attention of an
superhighway // The forest logged // Filled with chainstores and smog come clear, some firms and research- audience. Before launching hab-
ers are hoping this is a problem that it-forming features, teams should stop
“VI. MONSTER” FROM THE MUSICAL OCTET BY DAVID MALLOY can be solved by more technology: and consider how the product could be
(HTTPS://GENIUS.COM/DAVE-MALLOY-VI-MONSTER-LYRICS)
In October 2018 a startup launched used or abused.
“Palm,” a mini-smartphone designed to
make people look at their phones less WATCHLIST
(the firm bought the “Palm” branding Common Sense, Center for Humane
from the makers of the early digital Technology, Apple, Google, Facebook,
assistant). The Android-powered Palm, World Health Organization
BLOCKCHAIN
TECHNOLOGIES
112 114 116 118
BLOCKCHAIN CRYPTOCUR- TOKENIZING DECENTRALIZED
TECHNOLOGIES RENCIES ASSETS CONTENT
PLATFORMS
113 115 117
DIGITAL SELF- TOKENS 119
CITIZENSHIP SOVEREIGN FOR SMART CONTENT
IDENTITY ROYALTIES PROVENANCE
AND AND
FREELANCERS PERMANENT
ARCHIVING

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
BLOCKCHAIN KEEP
TECHNOLOGIES
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT FAQ FOR ENTERTAINMENT, What’s the difference between
Blockchain technology hit an inflection MEDIA AND TECHNOLOGY a blockchain, a token and a
point in 2017. It evolved beyond Bitcoin, EXECUTIVES cryptocurrency?
from a fringe form of digital currency, What is Blockchain? The term “blockchain” refers to a
and broke into public consciousness as specific type of data architecture
Blockchain technology is a method
a new way to share and store infor- - often in the context of a network
of sharing and storing information on
mation. While this technology is still or an ecosystem. It’s the blockchain
a distributed ledger where identities
developing, its broad and far-reach- where transactions occur. “Tokens”
and transactions are cryptographical-
ing applications have the potential to or “cryptocurrencies” can be part of a
ly protected. At its core, blockchain
impact a range of industries. It has yet blockchain network: they represent
enables multiple parties to agree on a
to enter the mainstream, and we will units of value. They can be traded
At its core, blockchain enables multiple single source of truth without having
continue to monitor blockchain tech- or spent to make purchases or
parties to agree on a single source of truth to trust one another. In theory, block-
nology as it matures in 2020. For that investments, to facilitate transactions,
without having to trust one another. chain reduces the need for interme-
reason, we have outlined key themes or to reward work on the network. Most
diaries such as banks to coordinate
within blockchain and distributed led- people have heard about “bitcoins.”
or verify transactions. Blockchains
ger technologies. This a cryptocurrency in the Bitcoin
fall under the umbrella of distributed
Network.
ledger technologies, a new family of
technologies that are enabling radical Where is “The Blockchain,” exactly?
advancements in the fields of da- There isn’t just one blockchain. In fact,
ta-sharing and data management. there are different types: private,
public, and federated. (Similarly, there
isn’t just one “internet” – there is in-

BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGIES cont.

ternet architecture and protocols, but block of transactions wins a block A Very Brief History of Blockchains The year 2018 was dubbed the “cryp-
there are different versions, networks, reward – this is represented by a cryp- (With Caveats) to winter,” because the total market
repositories, sites and services based tocurrency unit or a token. Miners can cap of cryptocurrencies lost 85% of
The concept of blockchains was first
all around the world.) Blockchains can be anyone: people who want to help its value over 12 months. Despite the
introduced in 2008 when a person
be started by individuals, companies build the infrastructure, startups with bear market, finance, tech and retail
or group of people under the name
or consortiums, and they live on mul- spare computing resources to spare, heavyweights like Fidelity, IBM, Face-
Satoshi Nakamoto published the
tiple machines simultaneously. They or even huge investment banks looking book, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and
seminal paper, “Bitcoin: a Peer to Peer
can run on different protocols just like to get into crypto markets. Miners Walmart all made significant invest-
Electronic Cash System.” To this day,
mobile phones can run on different op- compete against each other to verify ments in the industry. Bank of Amer-
it’s still not clear who Satashi Naka-
erating systems. There is no singular transactions. Once a miner verifies ica, Mastercard, and IBM combined
moto really is, whether or not they are
place where “the blockchain” is hosted. a set of transactions or a “block,” the own more than 100 blockchain-related
Japanese, and what their true motiva-
How does it work? node broadcasts the new block to the tions were in helping get blockchains patents.
entire network. If the majority of the started in the real world. Challenges Ahead
Imagine editing a Google Doc or a
network agrees the block is valid, it is
Wikipedia article. These are distrib- It took several years for the paper to Blockchain is still nascent technol-
cryptographically added to the ex-
uted systems where transactions are evolve from an interesting concept to ogy, and many challenges must be
isting chain of blocks or “blockchain”
verified by a central authority, Google usable code at scale. Bitcoin might addressed before it can reach mass
which forms the ledger and miners are
and Wikipedia respectively. Blockchain have been the first, but others soon adoption — mainly speed, scale, and
able to work on the next block.
systems replace the central adminis- build their own versions of cryptocur- regulation.
trators with consensus algorithms and Can blockchains get hacked easily? rencies. In 2015, Canadian computer Decentralized systems are inher-
network miners. Not in the traditional way. Since it is programmer Vitalik Buterin released ently less efficient than centralized
Let’s assume we have a network of 100 impossible to predict which miner will Ethereum, a blockchain-based pro- systems, and there are trade-offs
individual nodes running a blockchain verify the next transaction, it is nearly tocol that allowed for more sophis- between security and scale. Bitcoin
ledger. In a public blockchain, every impossible to collude against, attack, ticated functionality in the form of and Ethereum process between 3 to
node has access to see the full ledger or defraud the network. The network smart contracts. Smart contracts are 6 transactions per second, while Visa
because the ledger is distributed. No is secure as long as miners act inde- self-executing agreements where the can process thousands of transac-
single node controls the network and pendently of one another. However terms of the agreement are directly tions per second. This is changing as
all nodes have the option to verify some clever hackers know that it’s pos- written into lines of code. Ethereum systems are improved, but there’s still
transactions, in exchange for a reward. sible to manipulate a network by doing was also the first blockchain project a way to go.
This is generally referred to as “min- more of the work than anyone else. One to fundraise through an “Initial Coin
known attack is to control greater than Offering” or ICO. Ethereum raised $19 However the bigger challenge is likely
ing.” The more nodes that choose to
51% of the mining activity. million in 2014. In 2017, more than 400 to be regulatory. The fate of block-
become miners, the more the network
ICOs raised $5.6 billion. chains, cryptocurrencies and tokens is
is decentralized. As a reward for their
murky, to say the least. In the U.S., the
efforts, every miner that verifies a
Securties and Exchange Commission

BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGIES cont.

(SEC), congressional offices and local
state governments all have specific
and at times conflicting policies relat-
ed to blockchains and cryptoassets.
In fact, the SEC still does not have a
regulatory framework ready for use.
In the summer of 2019, the IRS caused
a mini-shockwave by announcing it
had sent out 10,000 warning letters to
crypto owners. Some believe it may be
a similar effort the agency took when
it went after Swiss banks a few years
ago, rooting out financial hideouts for
people avoiding taxes.
Outside of the U.S., blockchain tech-
nology faces similar hurdles. China has
banned cryptocurrency exchanges and
initial coin offerings altogether. Coun-
tries such as Malta, Switzerland and
Singapore are building a reputation as
crypto-friendly hubs.
Opportunity Ahead
While the primary use cases for
blockchain technology evolved out of
financial services, blockchains are
proving their use when authentication
matters. Many different industries are
building new applications and uses for
blockchain technology. We are paying
close attention to professional ser-
vices, commercial real estate, finan-
cial services, supply chain manage-
ment, logistics, healthcare, indntity
management and even journalism.

BLOCKCHAIN TERMS AND DEFINITIONS
51% attack Ethereum miner, verifying transactions on the block-
Hypothetical attack on a blockchain where secured. Blockchains are a subset of Ethereum is the second largest coin by chain network.
a group of miners working collectively distributed ledger technologies (DLTs). market cap after Bitcoin. It was introduced
controls more that 50% of the network’s Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin are some in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin. The currency is Governance
mining power. These miners could collude of the more famous examples of block- abbreviated as ETH on exchanges. Set rules that govern the blockchain proto-
to verify fraudulent transactions. chain networks. col; governance structures can include on-
Fiat chain rules like smart contracts and code
Altcoins Cold storage Government-issued currency specifications and off-chain rules like a
Any coin other than Bitcoin Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or board of directors and annual meetings.
private keys offline, in a piece of hardware Fork
Bitcoin not connected to the internet The splitting of a single blockchain, Hash pointer
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and the creating two alternative blockchains on Unique alphanumeric string links blocks
first blockchain. It was introduced in 2008 Crypto-currency different parts of the network. Forks can in the chain together with a one way math
by Satoshi Nakamoto. The currency is A crypto-asset that designed to function be accidental, temporary, intentional, function.
abbreviated as BTC on exchanges. as money, a medium of exchange. Cryp- permanent, planned or contentious. They
to-currencies’ value fluctuates depending can be the result of software upgrades or Hashing
Block height on demand and supply, similar to tradition- A one-way math function that takes any
governance decisions that nodes refuse to
Number of blocks preceding a particular al currency in the global economy. input and produces an unique alphanumer-
acknowledge or forget to install.
block. The first block on a blockchain is ic string, used in blockchain to condense
referred to as the genesis block and has a DAO Fork, hard fork information into blocks, useful for assign-
block height of zero. Decentralized autonomous organization, ing any digital file or asset with a unique
Software update on a blockchain protocol
not to be confused with “The DAO” which identifier.
Block rewards that is not backward compatible, creating
was a venture capital fund built on top of
Tokens distributed by the network to the a separate blockchain. Ethereum’s hard HODL
Ethereum. The DAO had a bug in the code
miner that verifies a particular block. fork resulted in Ethereum and Ethereum Misspelling of the word “hold”, term used
that was exploited and caused Ethereum
Block rewards are different from mining Classic. by crypto investors to describe keeping
to fork. Many coins use DAOs as a form of
fees and tips which are distributed by governance and decision-making among Fork, soft fork coins despite market volatility and price
individuals (as opposed to the network) to the network. The Ethereum DAO is the crashes.
Software update on a blockchain protocol
incentivize miners to verify their transac- most famous because it resulted in a con- that is backward compatible with order Hot storage
tions first. tentious hard fork and a $50 M hack. versions. Refers to storing a digital “wallet” or
Blockchain Dapp FUD private keys online, usually within an
A new way to share and store information Decentralized applications run on block- Fear, uncertainty, and doubt. application or exchange connected to the
on a distributed system where transac- chain platforms. internet, examples include Poloniex, Coin-
tions and identities are cryptographically Full node base and Bittrex.
A node on the network that can act as a

BLOCKCHAIN TERMS AND DEFINITIONS cont.
ICO Public Key + Private Key TPS

Short for Initial Coin Offering, relatively Cryptography (similar to what’s used in Transactions per second, used to compare
unregulated way of raising money. credit cards) for identities, alphanumeric the speeds of different blockchains.
addresses used to send and receive trans-
Immutability actions. Wallet
A primary characteristic of blockchains, File that contains a collection of private
A record of transactions that does not SHA256 keys.
change and prevents “back-dating” in Cryptographic hash algorithm used in
record keeping, sometimes referred to as most blockchains. Whitepaper
“digital granite”. Technical paper outlining the governance,
Shilling protocol, and features of a project.
KYC/AML Aggressively promoting a coin or cryp-
KYC/AML stands for “Know your customer” to-asset.
and “Anti-money laundering.” KYC/AML
requirements are used by many financial Smart Contracts
service providers to confirm the identity Self-enforcing agreements where the
of their customers and detect illicit and terms are built directly into code and
criminal activity in their networks. issued on a blockchain.
Light Node Solidity

A node on the network that can transact Programming language invented by Vitalik
with other nodes but cannot verify trans- Buterin for smart contracts on Ethereum.
actions.
Stablecoin
Mempool A cryptocurrency which is valued relative
Aggregate number and size of uncon- to a “stable” asset or basket of assets that
firmed transactions on a blockchain. can be in the form of another cryptocur-
rency, fiat money or commodities.
PoW PoS
Proof of Work and Proof of Stake are Token
mechanisms in that blockchain protocols Digital identity for something that can be
use to choose the miner that gets to pro- owned.
duce the next block.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
DIGITAL CITIZENSHIP REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
“We’re afraid of having our KEY INSIGHT iad digital tools to serve its citizens.
In 2017, in an effort to attract more
data tracked,” a Hong Kong Some governments are modernizing
entrepreneurs and tech talent, Estonia
protester told Quartz in 2019 what it means to be a citizen, and
began piloting a beta digital citizen-
when explaining why she and the benefits and responsibilities that
ship program (along with financial
entails. Estonia was the first country
dozens of others were lining to offer e-residency, allowing indi-
benefits such as favorable tax breaks)
without requiring physical residence
up to pay for subway tickets viduals to become a citizen of the
in the country. While Estonia’s digital
in cash instead of using the country without actually living there.
citizenship is an example of positive
popular Octopus card. Now, countries like China and Vene-
government innovations, other coun-
zuela are expanding the definition of
tries have introduced more controver-
Venezuelan woman with her digital citizen- digital citizenship with surveillance
sial initiatives.
ship card. programs such as social credit scores
and government issued IDs that track In the four years that it has been in
everything from voting records to circulation, 15 million Venezuelans
state pensions. allegedly have a “Carnet de la Patria” or
a Fatherland Card, which was built by
EXAMPLES Chinese telecom giant ZTE. Under the
dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro, Vene-
Estonia, a small Northern European
zuelans have to use this card to access
country of 1.3 million, was the first government services, pensions, and
country to move most of its govern- food stamps. The card also tracks vot-
ment services fully online fifteen ing records and party registration.
years ago. From taxes to voting to
healthcare, Estonia has created myr- Local governments in China made
headlines last year by piloting different

DIGITAL CITIZENSHIP cont.

social credit systems that would rank, WHAT’S NEXT
punish, or reward citizens based on
In democratic countries with pro-
certain behavior. This concept, first
tections for individual freedoms and
announced in 2014, was widely criti-
rights, digital citizenship can usher
cized as Orwellian social engineering
in a new age of innovation and im-
if not outright creepy. According to
proved public services. However, many
Chinese government policy papers, all
authoritarian and totalitarian regimes
Chinese citizens will be included in its
are eager to adopt these technologies
social credit system by 2020. However
as well to maintain control and con-
during the Hong Kong protests in 2019,
centrate power. As part of the Belt and
activists avoided using the country’s
Road Initiative, Chinese AI and surveil-
Octopus transportation card for fear
lance companies with the support of
that the government would track their
the Chinese government are exporting
activities to and from public demon-
their services to governments all over
strations.
the world.
Where does blockchain fit into all of
this? Estonia incorporates distribut- WATCHLIST
ed ledger technology in many of its
ZTE; Aadhaar; Sesame Credit; Al-
digital citizenship services. In the US,
ibaba; Cloudwalk; Hikvision; Yitu;
one startup Voatz is applying block-
SenseTime; Voatz; China; Venezuela;
chain technology to voting. In 2018,
Estonia; voting commissions.
Voatz conducted a pilot program with
the government of West Virginia, and
144 Americans living in 31 countries
overseas cast ballots in the November
midterm elections. Voatz has recently
signed on Utah county, with a popula-
tion of more than half a million resi-
dents for another pilot.

SCENARIO
DIGITAL CITIZENSHIP
In the next ten years, blockchain technology could be advanced enough to support key functions of citizenship, including identification
cards, driver licenses, and voting. The main blocker to adopting these innovations will come from public distrust and lack of political
coordination to implement these measures. Communities will define themselves by how “smart” they are (use of new technologies for
automation, security, grid management and more) or how “human” they are (unplugged, internet-free zones, right to digital invisibility).
OPTIMISTIC FRAMING CATASTROPHIC FRAMING

Blockchain Empowers Democracies Blockchain Empowers Authoritarian Regimes
In stable democracies, digital citizenship will start with the mundane, such as Blockchain evolves as a technology that makes it easier to track citizens and
e-passports and virtual jury duty and gradually grow into more complicated abuse power. Canada, Estonia, and India all launched massive digital identity
systems like voting. Pilot tests will continue for blockchain voting startups like programs for their citizens; some are voluntary opt-in programs, others are
Voatz, in increasingly large counties and districts. These pilots will target small compulsory programs like the Aadhaar program in India. Once these digital
groups such as homebound elderly and active military stationed overseas be- citizenship programs are in place, it will be hard to ensure that citizens main-
fore scaling to wider populations. Voting processes will be the primary indica- tain some GDPR-era digital rights such as the right to be forgotten.
tor of a fully digitally engaged civic community, although it may take more than
a generation to see a widespread shift to digital and decentralized systems. China and Russia have large scale citizen surveillance programs, and they
are exporting them to countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Eventually, governments will begin to apply open-source algorithms and Venezuela launched a botched cryptocurrency. While it has been ridiculed in
machine learning to other challenges like balancing the budget and determin- the crypto-community, it may be a sign of things to come. Iran has followed
ing where to build new roads. Citizens will, in the words of Bitcoin maximalist suit with plans of launching a sovereign-backed cryptocurrency. China, which
Anthony Pompliano, “trust the governance of algorithms over the governance initially outlawed cryptocurrencies, developed its own national cryptocurren-
of humans.” cy which can only be used by its preferred trading partners.
Open-source technology and publicly-funded initiatives, like municipal internet While the promises of blockchain and Web 3.0 are full of decentralization of
projects, will gain traction despite a few high profile failures. Governments will power, in reality influence in these networks concentrate within two parties:
pass data security and data sharing restrictions on any public-private part- the developers who write the code for core protocols and the miners who val-
nerships to prevent corporations from harvesting data to further commercial idate transactions. The number of people who can contribute to open-source
interests. Open-source tools for government and civic life will increase trans- blockchain projects is tiny relative to the potential size of the networks. Cor-
parency and efficiency in government processes and usher in an era of more porations and governments with majority control of either the miners or the
connected and civically engaged communities. developers manipulate the system and rewrite the rules on their own terms.
ELENA
GIRALT
TREND 114 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
CRYPTOCURRENCIES REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT government has imposed a restrictive maximum supply, participating nodes).
“crypto ban” since 2017 which allows In order to understand how this trend
Cryptocurrencies are digital assets or
citizens to hold digital assets prohibits is evolving, focus on the two main
stores of wealth that use a crowd-reg-
the use of exchanges to buy and sell types of cryptocurrencies and the
ulated public ledger system. While the
digital assets with fiat money. It’s worth implications of greater adoption. We
market is volatile now, the future use
noting that Chinese businesses like Bit- recommend following stable coins and
cases for “programmable money” are
main and TRON are some of the biggest privacy coins (see below).
hard to ignore.
players in the cryptocurrency industry Stable Coins
worldwide.
EXAMPLES Stable coins are designed to lower
Facebook made headlines the sum- the risk of price volatility by “pegging”
Bitcoin is the most well-known exam-
mer of 2019 with the announcement the value of the coin to another asset,
2019 is the year that cryptocurrencies ple, though there are more than 2,000
of Libra, a proposed permissioned most commonly the US dollar. Typi-
moved into the mainstream conversation. known cryptocurrencies in existence.
blockchain digital currency backed by cally, stable coins are collateralized
Cryptocurrencies are an entirely new
a consortium of 28 member organiza- with the asset their value is pegged to.
asset class that may take years to fully
tions representing major players from Those assets are in turn either man-
mature. Cryptocurrencies are almost the payments, telecommunication, aged by a central custodian or a de-
always based on open-source software,
fintech and venture capital industries. centralized autonomous organization
making them easy to audit and nearly
Walmart has recently filed a patent for or a DAO as is the case with MakerDAO
impossible to ban outright or censor.
a digital currency of its own. one of the more popular stable coins.
Cryptocurrencies have ushered in the
Notable stable coins are Tether, Maker
need for a new generation of financial WHAT’S NEXT Dai, USD Coin, TrueUSD, Gemini Dollar.
regulations. In the US, there have been
Cryptocurrencies vary widely in terms Privacy Coins
three congressional hearings on the
of their characteristics and network
subject this year alone. The Chinese Privacy coins are designed to protect
dynamics (e.g. circulating supply,

TREND 114 • EIGHTH YEAR ON THE LIST
CRYPTOCURRENCIES cont.
users anonymity and the confidenti-
ality of their transactions. On Bitcoin
and Ethereum, users identities are
pseudonymous and transactions are
public by default, making these net-
works fairly bad at protecting privacy.
Privacy Coins use advanced math such
as zero-knowledge proofs and bullet
proofs to make digital transactions
as untraceable as using cash. Notable
privacy coins are Monero, ZCash, Grin.
WATCHLIST
Libra consortium; Walmart; J.P.
Morgan Chase; Facebook; Coinbase;
Gemini; Binance; IBM; Bitmain; TRON;
financial regulators; central banks.

SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF LIBRA
WHAT IF With a network of over 2.7 billion users,

Facebook’s global influence on politics, the
FACEBOOK’S LIBRA
economy and individual rights has launched
governments into an existential debate on
how to regulate and reign in big tech. What
IS ADOPTED BY are the near-future possible outcomes of a

successful corporate cryptocurrency?
1% OF FACEBOOK
USERS?
ELENA
GIRALT

OPTIMISTIC PRAGMATIC CATASTROPHIC

An equitable global economy in 2025 More research, but less scale Market Manipulation That No One Saw Coming
The Libra Association has the capital to in- The Libra Association announced an ambitious plan Imagine manipulating global markets the way
vest in and improve in payment channels and to launch by early 2020. Given what we know about public sentiment was manipulated on social
banking systems for its users. In some ways, cryptocurrency wallets and international financial media in recent elections. If Libra gains wide-
Facebook’s Libra could simply be a necessary regulations such as KYC/AML checks, with this spread adoption, who will determine the basket
step to stay competitive with Chinese platforms project Facebook is making a big bet that it can of assets that the currency is pegged to, when to
like WeChat Pay and AliPay that have already transition from a social network to a global payments share that information with the public and what
disrupted the financial industry. platform. economies to protect versus exploit?
The Libra Association, the nonprofit coalition The Libra Association is laying the groundwork for The minting and management of money has his-
in charge of Libra’s governance, has committed other corporations that wish to create corporate torically been left to governments. Governments
to eventually decentralizing the network. If de- digital currencies. The role of governments in regu- decide how to trade with other countries to
centralization takes place and if 1% of Facebook lating financial policies and economic stability will be protect their industries and how to control their
users adopt Libra, Facebook will have launched hotly debated as the Calibra wallet launches despite currencies to prevent hyperinflation. Govern-
a cryptocurrency at the same scale of Bitcoin. requests from Congress to stop development on the ments have a national interest to protect their
This currency can act as an alternative store of app. In developed economies, Calibra will compete citizens.
value for people living in hyperinflated econo- with apps like Google Pay, Apple Pay, Venmo, Cash
Facebook and the Founding Members of the
mies or under strict currency controls. With Li- App and Zelle. The end-user will not notice any
Libra Association represent some of the bright-
bra, Facebook promises a global economy that meaningful difference. In emerging markets, Calibra
est minds in tech, payments and telecommu-
is more equitable. While that might be a stretch, can afford to unseat local money transmitters and
nications. However, they are also unelected
it could certainly yield more integrated financial potentially facilitate better cross-border payments
representatives with strong corporate interests.
systems with instant settlements, cross-border and remittances.
Global economic policies such as tariffs, sanc-
payments and lower processing fees. If nothing else, Facebook’s Libra is launching crypto- tions and embargoes may be rendered com-
currencies and open-source projects into the main- pletely obsolete if bad actors have an alternative
stream conversation around the modern, connected, non-governmental decentralized currency to
global economy. Their presence will spur research transact in.
committees, privacy task forces and new industry
standards.
ELENA
GIRALT
OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC, PESSIMISTIC CATASTROPHIC

DEPENDING ON YOUR The End of Cash in Society Chaos and Anarchy
VIEWPOINT In 2019 you were a subscriber to your local news- Venezuela has long been a favorite case study
paper; in 2023 you are a member. Not much has for cryptocurrencies. According to crypto
Corporate Coins Replace Credit Cards in 2026 changed, though: You get regular, personal email advocates, the record-breaking levels of bitcoin
Shortly after Facebook’s Libra announcement, updates from reporters and editors (and sometimes trading volumes from Venezuela prove the utility
Walmart filed a patent for a cryptocurrency of you even read them!). There is a “Local Deals” section and potential of this technology for unbanked
its own. While these products may initially be in the newspaper’s online “Member Center,” but you populations and people living in hyperinflated
customer-facing rewards programs, there is only visited the page once. Even though you don’t economies looking for an alternative store of
the potential for corporate currencies to be read a full article every day (or even every week), you value.
used internally for some of the world’s largest feel like you get value from the push notifications
Beginning in March of 2019, a national electricity
multinational companies. For example, J.P. sent directly to your phone. Most of your friends
crisis resulted in rolling blackouts throughout
Morgan’s JPMCoin could help the company and aren’t members — they hear the news from you or
the country, some lasting as long as 9 days at
its partners settle faster relative to traditional visit the paper’s website once or twice a year. There
a time. Venezuela is in some senses a de facto
SWIFT networks. are enough people like you, however, that the paper
cashless society because the hyperinflated
is stable. The newsroom isn’t as big as it once was,
Representative Alexandria Ocasio Cortez now bolivar changes value so often that physical bills
but its leadership has successfully struck a delicate
likens Facebook Libra to a company scrip, which are not practical. During blackouts, merchants
balance: Asking for more money from members,
is an employer issued I.O.U. that was common cannot use their digital point of sale devices
but still maintaining an audience large enough to be
practice in mining and logging towns in the U.S., for debit or credit cards - bringing the already
valuable to advertisers.
often associated with predatory practices that failing economy to a complete halt. With natural
limited the purchasing power of employees. disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and
Corporate coins, especially without proper forest fires on the rise, analogue backups are
regulation and labor protections, are a rebirth still an important safety net in a fully digitized
of the company scrip for digital age. economy.
ELENA
GIRALT
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
SELF-SOVEREIGN KEEP
IDENTITY
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT approach to identity management: EXAMPLES

self-sovereign identity. Self-sovereign
Identity management systems have Identity systems help individuals
identity is a system where the user is
seen a gradual evolution from govern- validate reputation, manage risk and
central to the administration of her
ment issued IDs to email providers and gain access to groups. Many systems
data and owns her data outright. It
social media accounts. The average rely on third-party “identity providers”
is interoperable and transportable
person has between 27 and 130 unique like governments, Facebook, or Goo-
across applications, devices, and
online accounts. Companies like gle. Digital identity management has
platforms.
Google, Yahoo, and Facebook have been a central point of vulnerability
built their business models on man- Self-sovereign identity has two pri- for individuals and corporations alike
aging troves of data on behalf of their mary benefits: increased security and with hackers using phishing emails
users; but users have suffered from increased control. Increased secu- and personally identifiable information
Self-sovereign identity is a system where
large-scale security breaches like the rity because decentralized identity (PII) to reset passwords and break into
the user has total control over the admin-
Yahoo hack that impacted every single solutions in theory are much harder to accounts.
istration of her data and owns her data
one of its 3 billion accounts. In 2019 hack. Increased control because when
outright. Brave Browser is one example of a
alone, there have been 15 high pro- an individual manages her identity,
web browser that is giving users more
file data breaches affecting 2 billion she owns her data and can therefore
control over their data. While not a
accounts across government, health- decide what information to share
“self-sovereign identity,” the Brave
care, finance and technology sectors and with whom, and in theory, how to
model illustrates how users could cap-
involving organizations like Facebook, monetize it. For media companies,
italize on their data if they had more
CapitalOne, Singapore’s Ministry of self-sovereign identity is a trend that
control over their digital identities.
Health and Bulgaria’s Revenue Agency. touches on paywalls, authentication,
With Brave, users get paid 70% of the
royalty tracking, as well as digital
Blockchains and distributed ledger ad revenue from the ads they watch,
advertising.
technologies have introduced a new they can then choose to share it with
the sites they visit...or not.

SELF-SOVEREIGN IDENTITY cont.

Earlier this year, Microsoft launched WATCHLIST
Identity Overlay Network, or ION for
IBM; Microsoft; UPort; Spotify; Com-
short, which is a decentralized identity
cast; MediaOcean; MetaX; AdEx; Kind
solution. This effort is a collaboration
Ads; Brave browser; Netflix; Google;
with the Decentralized Identity Foun-
Facebook; Samsung
dation which includes partners such as
IBM, Aetna, Mastercard and Accenture.
Samsung has also announced a decen-
tralized identity project with a consor-
tium of South Korean enterprises.
WHAT’S NEXT
Self-sovereign identity will likely be
adopted in phases. Businesses like
Google and Facebook have an increas-
ing incentive to consider this trend
as data breaches and security hacks
continue to impact users. Identity
is closely tied to data, which means
these businesses will have to consider
a shift in business model if self-sover-
eign identity solutions become widely
adopted.
Since interoperability is a defining fea-
ture of decentralized identities, media
companies should look for partners
instead of attempting to launch an
identity product on their own.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
TOKENIZING ASSETS REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT tokenizing assets has most often been has over 170 apps on their platform WHAT’S NEXT
discussed with assets such as real that range from DMail, an open-source
Traditionally, “tokenization” is a term Asset tokenization and token econo-
estate and fine arts, some startups email client to BitPatron, a censor-
that comes from data security to refer mies are still based on mostly theoret-
are looking at tokenizing media such ship-resistant alternative to Patreon.
to the process of protecting sensitive ical models. Therefore now is a great
as music, images, and video as a way All apps on the Blockstack network
data with an encrypted identifier or time for entertainment and media
to reduce fraud and piracy. Token eco- require Stack tokens (STX) to run.
token. In the context of blockchain companies to research tokens and how
nomics can revolutionize how media Brave offers a slightly different model;
technology, tokenization refers to rep- they might be used.
companies approach monetization and allowing users to earn tokens based
resenting a real-world asset with digi-
distribution. on the ads they watch. These tokens
tal token. In theory, asset tokenization
are called BAT, which stands for Basic
WATCHLIST
allows businesses to greatly reduce
EXAMPLES Attention Token. Blockstack; Brave; Associated Press;
the friction associated with buying and Ujo.
selling securities to a greater network In 2019, the SEC approved the first Distribution channels are typically
of investors. During the initial coin regulated security token offering for “winner-take-all” models where a
offering boom of 2017, startups raised Blockstack, a startup building decen- handful of players dominate the mar-
millions of dollars in capital by tokeniz- tralized web applications with block- ket. Comcast, AT&T, YouTube, Vimeo,
ing equity of their company or utility chain technology. Blockstack is look- Soundcloud, and Spotify are just a
of their networks. While many of those ing to raise $28 M in a Regulation A+ few examples. While it’s difficult to
ICOs proved unsuccessful, the under- funding round, but instead of receiving imagine these companies ever going
lying theory of using digital tokens to shares in the company, investors will away, if the talent and the audience
represent real world assets is gaining receive Stack (STX) tokens. move en masse to other platforms with
traction. “Token economics” refers to Blockstack and Brave are two exam- better features (pricing models, reve-
the different business models made ples of internet companies that could nue share, IP protection), then those
possible by blockchain and distributed upend traditional models with a new companies may lose their position as
ledger technology networks. While token-powered network. Blockstack market leaders.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
TOKENS FOR SMART KEEP
ROYALTIES AND
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
FREELANCERS
KEY INSIGHT Based out of Berklee School of Music, CompuServe in the 1980s. This was
this initiative is focused on developing a news structure where readers paid
Blockchain networks like Ethereum
standardized open-source protocols per view of articles, including paying
enable new ways to track ownership
and APIs for the music industry. Block- extra for images. At the time this was
and licensing for content through the
chain is a key part of their strategy. possible because CompuServe offered
use of smart contracts. Smart con-
KODAKOne is a platform designed to higher quality journalism in a way that
tracts are self-executing agreements
help photographers manage the digital was easier to find, search and read.
where the terms of the agreement are
rights of images using blockchain Ultimately this service failed due to
directly written into lines of code. For
technology. They primarily work by increasing availability of free, high
example, every time a song is played, a
recording ownership and creation of quality journalism and the advent of
small amount of money could be sent
the images on a blockchain ledger and free search services such as Google
Photo Credit Fiona Garden automatically from the listener to the
then use a web crawling service to and AOL.
artist.
Three years ago, award-winning recording scan websites to see if a copyrighted
artist Imogen Heap launched Mycelia, a image is being used. Startups like Civil WHAT’S NEXT
research and development project investi-
EXAMPLES
and Po.et are attempting to build sim- Artists with music will be the first to
gating how blockchain can make the music Blockchains like Ethereum form the
ilar decentralized networks for news publish content on a smart contract
industry more equitable for artists. foundational infrastructure layer for
and blogging. enabled platform where content
new, low-friction ways to automate
Smart contracts, digital intellectual creators must give less money to
royalty payments for digital intellectual
property rights and micro payments intermediaries. This type of content
property.
advancements are creating an oppor- will be more successful as there is
Open Money Initiative (OMI) is a non- greater consumer demand and signifi-
tunity for news and media to revisit
profit consortium with members such cant revenue for the artists to capture
an economic model that was once
as Facebook, IBM, IDEO, IHEARTRADIO, in disintermediating the record and
adopted by the news services on
Netflix, Pandora, Sony and Spotify. distribution companies.

TOKENS FOR SMART ROYALTIES AND FREELANCERS cont.

News platforms will be fast followers, WATCHLIST
specifically for their video and photo li-
Civil; Ethereum; Mycelia, Open Music
braries, but will struggle to incentivize
Initiative, Associated Press, Koda-
end users to migrate to new platforms
kOne; Getty; Reuters.
as specific journalists have less mar-
ket power and smaller follower base.
Ownership of digital assets are evolv-
ing with a movement for content cre-
ators to keep ownership rights of their
content. GDPR rules in Europe where
people have greater ownership rights
over the data they create, no matter
what platform it is created on is an
example. As such we expect that there
will be increased demand for platforms
that allow the content creator to retain
ownership and be compensated for the
engagement they drive. This is likely
to affect the photography industry as
historically photographers retained
copyright ownership of their film pho-
tographs. But recent platforms have
required photographers to sign over
rights to the image purchaser.
The change in ownership rights would
be the equivalent of Instagram paying
popular content creators directly to
retain them on their platform—it’s a de-
parture from the current model, where
network effects mean that Instagram
does not need to pay content creators.
Instead, content creators are paid by
brands who seek to get access to the
creators’ followers.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
DECENTRALIZED KEEP
CONTENT PLATFORMS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES allows massive audiences to coordi- ship-resistance and complete freedom
nate and self-organize, reducing the of speech.
Platforms will be created around This trend is particularly relevant in
need for intermediaries and impacting As a reaction to larger platforms to
giving the content creator the most the world of online gaming where com-
the role of content distributors and banning users such as Alex Jones
ownership and rewards for the con- panies like Twitch, YouTube, Facebook
curators. As a result, self-governance and content moderation policies that
tent produced. Content creators will Gaming and Microsoft-owned Mixer
and incentive structures from block- restrict “inappropriate content” or
drive adoption because they get the compete for the world’s most popu-
chain/smart contract-based platforms “cyberbullying,” certain audiences are
majority of revenues instead of giving lar gamers to upload content to their
create a proving ground for alternate turning to places like Gab, a decen-
the majority of the revenues to the site or even more importantly, stream
forms editorial curation of information tralized social media alternative to
distribution platforms. At the same games live.
that is more resilient to the interests Twitter.
time the creators will also retain more In April 2019, one of YouTube’s most of specific stakeholders.
ownership control and direct interac- popular content creators PewDiePie
tion with the audience. Decentralized content platforms will WHAT’S NEXT
announced a deal to exclusively live-
give more control to content creators, You will begin to see users demand
Blockchains and distributed ledgers stream all his content on DLive, a new
whether it was a social media post or that platforms place greater impor-
are shifting the incentive structures video platform powered by the Lino
a public speech. A distribution chan- tance in trust and establishment
for how content gets curated and blockchain. As opposed to YouTube,
nel leveraging blockchain technology of credibility. Centralized content
consumed— from individual editors, to which takes up to 45% of a creator’s
could make it more difficult to censor platforms will need to make conces-
smart algorithms, to vast user bases video revenue, on DLive a creator
and limit access to information. Con- sions either in the form of revenue
who vote for content in return for pay- receives 90% of the revenue earned
tent creators could use distribution splits, content moderation or audience
ments. This impacts lots of industries, from livestreams and advertising.
channels that can guarantee that their governance.
from online gaming to fashion to retail, PewDiePie still uploads content onto
content does not get altered, filtered
tourism to auto manufacturers, and YouTube, but not live. Ninja, the most
or blocked by a third party. Because
even those working on 2020 political followed streamer on Twitch recently WATCHLIST
of this, decentralized content plat-
campaigns. announced a move to Mixer. Block- LivePeer, DLive; Twitter; YouTube;
forms have seen a spike in popularity
chain-based governance systems Facebook Gaming; Mixer; Gab.
in communities that value censor-
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
CONTENT PROVENANCE KEEP
AND PERMANENT
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
ARCHIVING
KEY INSIGHT In an increasingly digital world, per- content and when images and videos
manent archives are difficult for small have been doctored or manipulated.
Blockchain technology enables the
newsrooms and large media compa-
creation of a shared permanent ledger
nies alike. The Wayback Machine is a WHAT’S NEXT
where nothing can be deleted. Because
nonprofit that started in 2001 whose
of this, adding original content or an in- We will soon have the ability to lever-
mission is to digitally archive the world age blockchain-based platforms to
dex to the original content to the block-
wide web. Despite these efforts to ar- guarantee that our content does not
chain is a way that journalists can make
chive the web, information is routinely get modified or censored en route
their content permanent and traceable.
deleted or censored by large corpora- to its end consumers. Information
Blockchains can be used as a universal
tions or governments. archive companies or distribution
index of content authorship and edits.
WordPress, one of the most popular companies—something akin to a
Image Credit: Galaygobi
EXAMPLES publishing tools for creating websites, WikiLeaks—will be able to distribute
In 2018, Chinese activist Yue Xin at Peking is launching Newspack, a publishing information using a distributed system
University used the Ethereum blockchain In 2018, Chinese activist Yue Xin at
solution made specifically for news- by inserting the information within a
to publish her letter detailing a pattern of Peking University used the Ethereum
rooms. Newspack will include a per- blockchain ledger similar to Bitcoin’s.
abuse and intimidation from school admin- blockchain to publish her letter detail-
manent archiving feature developed Recording information in a blockchain
istrators.Her letter had been routinely cen- ing a pattern of abuse and intimidation
by blockchain startup Civil that allows would also ensure that it does not be-
sored from social media sites like WeChat. from school administrators. Her letter
users to publish to the Ethereum come inaccessible if the host servers
had been routinely censored from social blockchain. are disconnected.
media sites like WeChat. This was an
example of how she used blockchain to The New York Times is exploring block-
chain as a way to combat misinforma- WATCHLIST
permanently archive a note that would
otherwise be censored. Other Chinese tion. The News Provenance Project New York Times; Associated Press;
activists have followed her example. is a project to help the public better WordPress; WikiLeaks; Wayback Ma-
understand the origins of journalistic chine; Civil.

PRIVACY &
120 129
DATA THEFT RANSOMWARE
BECOMES DATA AS A SERVICE
MANIPULATION
130
121
SECURITY
DECENTRALIZED
NEWSROOM HACKTIVISTS
TARGETING
131
122 TARGETED
AUTOMATED ATTACKS
FAKE URLS ON VOICE
INTERFACES
123
CONSUMER 132
DEVICE STRANGE
TARGETING COMPUTER
GLITCHES
124 WILL KEEP
HAPPENING
CYBER RISK
INSURANCE
133
125 OPEN SOURCE
APP VULNERA-
AI-POWERED
AUTOMATED BILITIES
HACKING
134
126 GDPR COPYCATS
HIJACKING 138 142
INTERNET 135 ENCRYPTED AUTHENTICITY
TRAFFIC RIGHT TO MESSAGING
EAVESDROP/ BE NETWORKS 143
127 EAVESDROPPED DATA OWNERSHIP
DDOS ATTACKS ON 139
WILL INCREASE
136
SAFEGUARDING
AND VERIFYING
144
PERSISTENT
128 DEFINING WHAT
CONSTITUTES
LEAKS AUDIO
COMPLIANCE SURVEILLANCE
CHALLENGES ONLINE
HARASSMENT
140
AND
UNREALISTIC
ANONYMITY 145
BUDGETS 137 141
BLOCKING THE
AD BLOCKERS
DIFFERENTIAL MEDIA TROLLS
PRIVACY

TRENDS 120 - 133 • NINTH YEAR ON THE LIST
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
PRIVACY AND SECURITY REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT 120 phone number and personal photos
Entertainment, media and technol- DATA THEFT BECOMES DATA stored in the cloud — shared in public
ogy companies will continue to face MANIPULATION databases. Broadcast networks could
find that hackers are trying to manipu-
new security and privacy challenges Rather than malicious actors simply
late feeds on the night of the election.
throughout 2020. It’s an election year stealing data, in 2020 you can expect
in the U.S., the global economy is to see new kinds of attacks in which
122
shifting, and lots of interested par- hackers access and then manipulate
AUTOMATED FAKE URLS
ties — from authoritarian regimes, to data for long-term damage. The impli-
federated groups of activists, to disen- cations are more concerning than you News and entertainment media com-
franchised individuals — are working might realize at first: if a company’s panies should regularly check for per-
to infiltrate the systems we’ve all come data integrity comes into question, mutations of their URLs. For example,
The City of Baltimore’s websites, along
to rely on. Now more than ever, it’s it could lose customers and partners someone hoping to cause confusion
with many of its services, were shut down
imperative that every organization quickly. might build a website that looks exact-
following a ransomware attack in 2019.
takes active measures to protect user ly like CNN but has malicious content
and company data. Penetration testing 121 and uses the URL CNNnews.com or
should be performed on a regular basis NEWSROOM TARGETING CNN.topstory.com to intentionally
to identify vulnerabilities. Procedures confuse the public. It’s possible to gen-
It’s an election year in the U.S., and
for updating passwords regularly erate multiple variations of a URL and
tensions are already running high.
should be implemented. And every then automatically generate content
Newsrooms should anticipate being
organization should prepare for the to populate what looks like authentic
targeted in multiple ways. A news
worst – and have a crisis plan ready pages. If those links are shared on
organization’s website or mobile app
just in case leaders, employees or social media, it will be difficult and
can be hijacked to slow down traffic.
organization assets are targeted. arduous to slow the spread of misin-
Employees can have their personal
formation.
information — home address, mobile

PRIVACY AND SECURITY cont.

124 to complete, and yet the machine that
CYBER RISK INSURANCE won the Grand Challenge proved its
might in just a fraction of the time. The
New forms of insurance, intended to
winner became the first non-human
help businesses protect against hack-
entity to earn DEF CON’s black badge,
ers, will begin to enter the market-
which is the hacking community’s
place. Rather than simply covering the
equivalent of an Oscar. Very soon,
theft of basic information, insurers will
malicious actors will create autono-
also offer protection against damage
mous systems capable of automat-
to reputation, the loss of operational
ically learning new environments,
capacity, and the costs for system
exposing vulnerabilities and flaws,
upgrades. As entertainment and news
and then exploiting them for gain—or
media organizations develop their
whatever the stated objective, which
FY 2020 – 2021 budgets, they should
could simply be generalized mayhem.
investigate cyber risk insurance.
This could pose a significant threat
to news, e-sports and entertainment
125 companies.
AI-POWERED AUTOMATED
HACKING 126
Thanks to advancements in AI, one of HIJACKING INTERNET TRAFFIC
In the coming year, entertainment and news 123 the big trends in security is automated
media organizations should anticipate being CONSUMER DEVICE TARGETING Broadcasters and streaming providers,
hacking—in short, software that’s built
targeted in multiple ways. beware: the protocols underpinning
With the proliferation of IoT devic- to out-hack the human hackers. The
the WWW were written long before
es – connected speakers, mirrors Pentagon’s research agency DARPA
we had connected home security
and fitness gadgets – hackers have launched a Cyber Grand Challenge
cameras, mobile devices and billions
a wellspring of new targets in 2020. project in 2016, with a mission to
of daily internet users. In November
Attackers might hijack a smart TV for design computer systems capable of
2018, hackers created a massive in-
ransom the day before a big televised beating hackers at their own game.
ternet traffic diversion, rerouting data
event (national elections, Eurovision, DARPA wanted to show that smarter
through China, Nigeria and Russia. It
the Super Bowl) and refuse to unlock it automated systems can reduce the
disrupted Google, taking its business
until the customer has paid a ransom response time—and develop fixes in
tools offline, slowing down search
fee. Less tech-savvy consumers might system flaws—to just a few seconds.
and making its cloud unreachable. It
blame their cable or internet provid- Spotting and fixing critical vulnerabil-
was an example of Border Gateway
ers, which could cripple customer ities is a task that might take a human
Protocol (BGP) hijacking and while in
service call centers. hacker several months or even years


this case the error was the result of
128 transfers are easy to track, the cur- 130
an outdated Nigerian ISP, the incident
COMPLIANCE CHALLENGES AND rency of choice is now bitcoin, which DECENTRALIZED HACKTIVISTS
points to a vulnerability in our web
UNREALISTIC BUDGETS moves through an encrypted system
Hackers-turned-activists have had
infrastructure. We anticipate new and can’t be traced. The emergence of
cases of internet traffic hijacking in The historical tension between securi- a busy few years, working for caus-
the blockchain and cryptocurrencies
2020, especially during the numerous ty and privacy will unleash new chal- es they believe in. They launched
have transformed ransomware into
high-profile streaming events planned lenges in 2020 – and entertainment, DDoS attacks against governments,
a lucrative business. In the spring of
for the year ahead: big sports events news media and technology organi- corporations and banks. Hacktivist
2019, Baltimore had its critical city
(World Series, Super Bowl, Olympics), zations especially will have to make organizations, including Anonymous,
services taken for ransom. Since city
the U.S. election in November, grand tough decisions about their budgets. WikiLeaks and DC Leaks, see them-
administrators hadn’t prepared in
finales/ premieres of series and more. Managers will need to develop and to selves as durable forces of change.
advance for such a scenario, it took
continually update their privacy and Glamourized by the TV show Mr. Robot,
several months for the systems to
127 security policies—and they’ll need to hacktivism is on the rise, and given
come back online. Residents couldn’t
DDOS ATTACKS WILL INCREASE make the details transparent. Most heated political tensions during a year
pay water bills for months, email their
organizations aren’t devoting enough in which many elections are being
A Distributed Denial of Service Attack city representatives or schedule trash
budget to securing their data and de- held, we’ll likely see more operations
(DDoS) attack happens when a hacker pickup, among other things. Late sum-
vices. They lack clear data governance being carried out. Hacktivists will use
sends so many requests to a battalion mer of that same year, several small
policies. Organizations that haven’t their skills to help shape local, state,
of machines that the entire network towns all across Texas were hit with
carved out enough budget for compli- national and international politics,
goes down. In the past several years, similar attacks. Local administrators,
ance and security will find themselves conversations and business practices.
the number of DDoS attacks have financial services and healthcare orga-
dealing with remediation and lawsuits.
spiked — and they are increasing in nizations have been targeted with the
brunt of ransomware attacks because
131
both breadth and duration. In 2017, one
129 the data and services they provide are
TARGETED ATTACKS ON VOICE
attack lasted 12 days, and while multi-
RANSOMWARE AS A SERVICE so valuable. Simply backing up your
INTERFACES
day attacks aren’t as common as their
shorter cousins that tend to last a few Last year ransomware devastated organization’s data probably won’t be Now that Alexa, Siri, Cortana, Google
hours, they are on the rise. To date, companies and even entire cities. enough of a failsafe going forward. have moved from the fringe to the
half of the world’s attacks have origi- Entertainment and news media orga- Researchers have already found “dox- mainstream, we can expect to see
nated in China. Hackers are using more nizations could be next. In a ransomware” floating around the internet— targeted attacks. Flaws in Cortana
sophisticated tools, which means that ware attack, hackers deploy malicious rather than simply holding your data were discovered independently by pro-
future attacks will be larger in scope tools to hijack data, effectively locking hostage until you pay up, they threaten fessors at Technion Israel Institute of
and could achieve greater impact. out systems and devices, until a fee to publish it all to the web, for every- Technology and researchers at McAfee
is paid. Since cash and online bank one to see. in 2018, while security testing from
Checkmarx developed an Alexa skill
that allowed potential hackers to make


Echo listen continuously. (Amazon 133
fixed the vulnerability as soon as it was OPEN SOURCE APP
notified.) VULNERABILITIES
Newsrooms like to use open source
132
tools, and in the coming years they will
STRANGE COMPUTER GLITCHES
need to perform daily–not occasion-
WILL KEEP HAPPENING
al–security checks. Early in 2019, the
Glitches are so common now they don’t EU offered $1 million in bug bounties
always make the news. Glitches are for open source software. Why? The
problems that don’t have an immedi- OpenSSL bugs like Heartbleed caught
ate, obvious cause but nonetheless the government’s attention. In 2017, a
can cause frustrating problems. data scientist revealed a new kind of
From customs and border protec- malware that was capable of infecting
tion terminals going dark to techni- an open AI system like OpenAI Gym,
cal malfunctions on assembly lines, which is Elon Musk’s open-source tool-
glitches affect every industry. And kit for machine learning algorithms.
now, they’re popping up in our homes, It’s just one example of a booming
too. In the summer of 2019, at-home market for malicious tools that exploit
exercise platform Peloton pushed vulnerabilities in open source applica-
several updates to its smart stationary tions and software. As the AI ecosys-
bike which resulted in weird closed tem grows to incorporate more open
captioning and exercise classes that source code and community-built
would suddenly drop out even with tools, it will be especially important to
a strong internet connection. With spot problems in advance.
so many people working on complex
systems, errors no one planned for are
causing major headaches. Glitches of-
ten have to do with degraded network
connectivity or a miscalculation of the
bandwidth needed. But a lot of times,
glitches result from newer technolo-
gies, which we are learning break in
unexpected ways.

GLOSSARY FOR NON-TECHIES
Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) dows OS AutoRun feature. They’re often Browser hijacking Cracking
A targeted attack characterized by an at- distributed on USB drives. (As a safety This attack changes a user’s default A basic term that describes breaking into
tacker (sophisticated or not) who has the measure, Microsoft sets AutoRun to off by homepage and search engine without a security system. Anyone “cracking” a
time and resources to plan an attack on a default.) permission, often in order to gain clicks system is doing so maliciously.
network. APTs are not random. to websites for ad revenue or to inflate a
Backdoor Crypto
page’s ranking.
Adware Developers intentionally install backdoors Cryptography (or “crypto”) is the art and
Software that automatically generates into firmware so that manufacturers can Brute force attack science of encrypting data—as well as
online ads; it can also include spyware that safely upgrade our devices and operating This type of attack is a laborious, method- breaking encryption.
tracks your browsing habits. It’s because systems. The challenge is that backdoors ical process where a hacker uses software
of adware that many people are turning can also be used surreptitiously to harness to automatically guess every password Data leakage
to ad blocking software. (see the earlier everything from our webcams to our per- it can to gain unauthorized entry into a The unauthorized access of information
“Blocking the Ad Blockers” trend.) sonal data. network or computer. resulting in leaks, theft or loss.
Anonymizing proxy Black hat Bug Deep web/net and Dark web/ net
These are special tools that allow users to A malicious hacker; someone who hacks A flaw or problem in a program that can be The deep and dark net/web are actually
bypass security filters in order to access for personal gain. harmless or might allow hackers to exploit two different things, though they’re often
blocked websites. a system. conflated. The deep net or deep web is
Bot the vast trove of data that isn’t indexed by
Anonymous Bots are automated programs that Compiler search engines. Spreadsheets, databases
A collective of hackers, best known for its performs a simple task. Some—simple A program that translates source code into and more that are stored on servers make
use of the Guy Fawkes mask and distribut- chatbots, for example—are completely executable machine language. Compilers up this space. The dark web/ net is made
ed denial of service (DDoS) attacks. Anon- harmless. Other bots can be programmed are used to surreptitiously allow hackers up of sites that are invisible unless you
ymous typically uses the hashtag #Ops to repeatedly guess passwords so that a into various systems without changing the know how to use a special network, such
when announcing a new campaign. Past hacker can break into a website. source code, making it easier for them to as Tor, which knows how to find the dark
ops included a takedown of the Church get into a computer or network without side. Once there, you’ll find what you might
of Scientology and the Westboro Baptist Botnet
being noticed. expect: pirated software and content,
Church. A botnet is a group of computers that are
job ads for hackers, illegal drugs, human
being controlled by a third party and are Cookie trafficking, and worse.
Attribution being used for any number of nefarious A small file sent from your computer’s web
Researching and tracking back the origins purposes. For example, malware installed browser to a server. Cookies help websites Denial of service attack (DoS)
of an attack. on your computer can run, undetected, in recognize you when you return, and they This is when a hacker sends so many
the background, while hackers use your also help third parties track audience. requests to a website or network that the
Autorun worm machine as part of a large spamming traffic temporarily overwhelms the serv-
Worms are malicious programs that take network. ers, and the site or network goes down.
advantage of vulnerabilities in the Win-

GLOSSARY FOR NON-TECHIES cont.
Distributed denial of service attack End-to-end encryption InfoSec Metadata
(DDoS) When an encrypted message is scrambled This is an abbreviation for “information This is the data that explains what’s in
This is a DoS using a battalion of machines. on both ends, as it is sent and again as it is security.” Companies and professions that another set of data, such as a jpeg photo,
received. work within cybersecurity are known as or an email, or a webpage.
DEF CON
InfoSec.
This is a big, annual conference for hack- Exploit Password managers
ers that attracts people from all over the The general term for leveraging a vulnera- IRC These are third-party tools that you en-
world. Discussions range from highly tech- bility in a piece of code, software, hard- Internet relay chat protocol (IRC) has been trust your passwords to. Just remember
nical and academic to those about policy. ware or computer network. around forever. It’s the communication one master password, and use it to unlock
It takes place in Las Vegas every August. system used to have conversations and a database of all your other passwords,
Firewall
share files, and it’s still used by hackers. which should allow you to use a completely
Digital certificate A system of software and hardware that’s
different password for every site and ser-
These authenticate and approve the iden- designed to prevent unauthorized access Jailbreak vice you use. While managers are a good
tity of a person, organization or service. to a computer or computer network. A way of removing the restrictive manu- idea in theory, many are cloud-based. If
facturer’s code from a device so that you a hacker gains access to your password
DNS hijacking Grey hat
can reprogram it to function as you desire. manager, you’re in big trouble. If you do
This attack changes a computer’s settings Hackers are just like the rest of us. Some
to ignore a DNS or to use a DNS that’s con- have malicious intent, others just want to use one, make sure to use complicated
Keys
trolled by malicious agents. fight the bad people, and some...have a password at least 36 characters long with
The code that, just like a physical key, is
certain tolerance for moral flexibility. Gray lots of special characters, numbers and
used to lock or unlock a system, encrypted
Doxing hats will use the tools and sensibilities of a capital letters.
message or software.
When hackers root out and publish black hat in the pursuit of justice.
personally-identifying information about Patch
Lulz
someone online. Hacker An after-market fix to address vulnerabil-
A play on “lol” or “laughing out loud,” black
This term means different things to differ- ities.
hats often use the term “lulz” to justify
Dump ent people. People who tinker with code, malicious work. LulzSec (“lulz security”) Payload
The term for a trove of data released by to purposely manipulate it, are hackers. is yet another offshoot of Anonymous, The part of a computer virus that is re-
hackers. Some are good, and some are bad. In and it was credited with the massive Sony sponsible for the primary action, such as
popular culture, “hacker” has taken on a Pictures hack.
Dumpster diving destroying data or stealing information.
distinctly negative connotation.
Organizations and individuals who don’t Penetration testing
Malware
consistently use a shredder are opening Hactivist Any software program that’s been de- The practice of trying to break into your
themselves to dumpster diving, which is Someone who hacks for social or political signed to manipulate a system by stealing own computer or network, in order to test
exactly what it sounds like: hackers go reasons. information, augmenting code or installing the strength of your security.
through garbage looking for any informa-
a rogue program. Rootkits, keyloggers,
tion that will help with an exploit. Honeypot
spyware and everyday viruses are exam- PGP
A system or network designed to look like
Encryption ples of malware. PGP stands for “Pretty Good Privacy,” and
a high-value target, but was instead built
Using special code or software to scram- you’ve probably seen a lot of PGP numbers
to watch hackers do their work and learn Man-in-the-middle (MitM) attacks
ble data so that it cannot be read by a third showing up in Twitter and Facebook bios
from their techniques. This occurs when a hacker impersonates
party, even if it is intercepted. lately. PGP is a basic method of encrypting
a trusted connection in order to steal data email (and other data). In order to receive
or information or to alter communications and read the message, your intended re-
between two or more people. cipient must use a private key to decode it.
GLOSSARY FOR NON-TECHIES cont.
Phishing Rootkit Token Worm
We’ve all seen a phishing attack at least Rootkits are malware designed for root A small physical device that gives a trust- Worms are a certain kind of invasive mal-
once. They usually come in the form of an access. Often undetected, rootkits start ed, authenticated user access to a service. ware that spreads like a virus.
email from a trusted contact. Once you running when you start your computer, Tokens are stronger than passwords alone,
open the message or attachment, your and they stay running until you turn your since they require both the password and Zero-day exploits
computer, your data and the network machine off. the physical device to gain access. In the hacking community, zero days (also
you’re on become vulnerable to attack. written as “0day”) are prized tools because
Shodan Tor they are undisclosed vulnerabilities that
Plaintext In Japan, a “shodan” is considered the first The Onion Router, otherwise known as can be exploited. Once the flaw is re-
This is text without any formatting. In the degree (read: lowest level) of mastery. In “Tor,” was originally developed by the vealed, programmers have zero days to do
context of cybersecurity, it also refers to cyberspace, Shodan is a search engine US Naval Research Laboratory to route anything about it.
text that isn’t encrypted. Sony Pictures for connected devices, allowing hackers traffic in random patterns so as to confuse
storing its passwords and email addresses access to baby monitors, medical devic- anyone trying to trace individual users. Zombie
in a basic Excel spreadsheet is an example es, thermostats and any other connected The Tor Project is the nonprofit now in Just like the White Walkers in Game of
of plaintext. device. It’s intended to help people learn charge of maintaining Tor, which is used Thrones, but machines! A computer,
how to secure their devices, but obvious- by both white and black hackers, as well as connected device or network that’s been
Pwned ly it can also be used against them. (see infected by malware and is now being
journalists and security experts.
South Park fans will remember Cartman us- http://shodan.io) used by the hacker, probably without your
ing this word. It’s geek speak for “dominate.” Verification knowledge.
If you’ve been hacked, you’ve been pwned. Sniffing Ensuring that data, and its originators, are
In the late 1990s and early 2000s, you authentic.
RAT might have driven around your neighbor-
RATs are Remote Access Tool. If you’ve hood looking for open WiFi networks and Virtual Private Networks
used a remote login service to access your used a little device or a special computer Virtual Private Networks, or “VPNs,” use
office computer while away from work, program to find networks you could sneak encryption to create a private channel for
you’ve used a RAT. But RATs can be mali- onto without being noticed. Those are accessing the internet. VPNs are necessary
cious, too. Just imagine a hacker using a examples of sniffers, which are designed when connecting to public networks—even
RAT to take over your workstation. to find signals and data on the sly. those at airports, hotels and coffee shops.
Ransomware Spearphishing Virus

This is malware that allows a hacker to A more targeted form of phishing to small- Malware intended to steal, delete or ran-
break into your computer or network and er groups, typically within social networks som your files. Mimicking the flu, this type
then take away your access until you pay a or work environments. of malware spreads like a virus.
specified fee or perform a certain action.
Spoofing Vulnerability
Root In general, anytime data is changed to A weakness in computer software the
The root is the central nervous system mimic a trusted source, it’s being spoofed. hackers can exploit for their own gain.
of a computer or network. It can install For more resources and definitions, we rec-
Changing the “From” section or header of
new applications, create files, delete user White hat ommend NATO’s cooperative Cyber Defense
an email to make it look as though it was
accounts and the like. Anyone with root ac- Not all hackers are bad. White hats work Centre of Excellence’s online database:
sent by someone else. Black hats spoof
cess has ubiquitous and unfettered access. on highlighting vulnerabilities and bugs in https://ccdcoe.org/cyber-definitions.html.
emails by impersonating people you know,
and then launch phishing attacks. order to fix them and protect us.

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
PRIVACY REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT 134 devices to the Internet of Things—fit-
In the year since the massive Cam- GDPR COPYCATS ness trackers, mobile phones, cars,
coffee makers—those devices are hav-
bridge Analytica scandal, questions By the fall of 2019, we saw new city
ing extended interactions with each
remain about the right to privacy in an and state legislation borrowing from
other and the companies who make
age of surveillance capitalism. Several the sweeping data privacy regulations
them. Our devices aren’t just talking
new privacy laws have been talked that have been adopted by the Euro-
to each other anymore. They’re talking
about in Capitol Hill, while in Europe pean Union. Dubbed the General Data
to one another, learning about us, and
the General Data Protection Regula- Protection Regulation (or GDPR), the
starting to talk about us. News and
tion (or GDPR) is now being enforced. new rules affect how companies can
entertainment companies will need
While we all seem to care deeply collect and use customer data. Those
to determine whether those devices,
Entertainment and news media companies about our privacy, we continue using who don’t comply face hefty fines and
working as intermediaries, are cross-
will face privacy challenges in the year social media, websites and gadgets litigation. In the US, Senator Brian
ing any ethical lines when consumer
ahead. that don’t necessarily put our privacy Schatz proposed the Data Care Act in
data is exchanging hands. A debate
first. We saw a great example of that December 2018, parts of which mirror
over consumer rights and transparen-
when in the spring of 2019, millions of the GDPR.
cy is already underway in Washington,
people uploaded photos of their faces
D.C., and the outcome could affect
to an app that would automatically 135 those monetizing content via the IoT.
age them. We learned later that app, RIGHT TO EAVESDROP/ BE
owned by a Chinese company, could EAVESDROPPED ON 136
use that database of biometric data as Should consumers be given the right DEFINING WHAT CONSTITUTES
it pleased. to eavesdrop on what their own devic- ONLINE HARASSMENT
es are saying, and who else is listening
The #MeToo movement brought to
in? As we connect more and more
light thousands of stories of sexual

PRIVACY cont.
harassment and resulted in the outing gle Maps, the most popular emoji for conduct; what about messages sent Homeland Security and Governmental
of more than a dozen high-profile men iPhone users, and ride sharing trends through encrypted networks? In reac- Affairs issued a report entitled “State
throughout 2018. A shared Google across Uber’s global network while tion to revelations about social media Secrets: How an Avalanche of Media
document, dubbed “The Shitty Media keeping individual user behavior anon- hacks and government-sponsored sur- Leaks Is Harming National Security”
Men List,” was at one point circulating ymous. The U.S. Census Bureau will be veillance programs worldwide, private and cited 125 stories with leaked infor-
among female journalists, who entered using differential privacy in the 2020 networks will continue to be popular in mation that the committee considered
the details of men who have sexually Population Census. 2020. In the wake of net neutrality roll- damaging to national security. You
harassed women in the real world. backs in the US, a distributed browser can expect to see more coordinated
Differential privacy is limited in what
When the list was leaked, some point- system could prevent an ISP from leaking efforts in the year ahead.
it can do, even for the handful of tech
ed the finger at the women, arguing throttling certain sites or users.
giants that have enough information
that they were committing acts of on-
to do it right. Apple has differentiated 140
line harassment simply by contributing
itself from its competitors by integrat- 139 ANONYMITY
to it. It’s clear that we don’t yet have
ing differential privacy into its Safari SAFEGUARDING AND VERIFYING The world needs anonymity, as it en-
clear definitions for what constitutes
browser and Google uses its own LEAKS ables whistleblowers to come forward,
harassment. In the years ahead, we will
differential privacy tool called RAP- Many social movements worldwide and it shields those who otherwise
continue to wrestle with what behavior
POR. It is important to remember this have encouraged the leaking of might be persecuted for their beliefs.
is acceptable in virtual gaming worlds,
method is still evolving. Depending on sensitive information to the press, to Digital anonymity allows us to band
in social media, in our mobile exchang-
applications and data sets, differential hackers, and to other governments. together in times of need, whether
es, and in general digital discourse.
privacy is harder to maintain when While many people seem eager to find that’s to raise money for a good cause
variables are correlated. and share information—not everyone or to push back against injustices. Our
137
agrees on what should be published, desire to post content anonymously
DIFFERENTIAL PRIVACY
138 and by whom. The International Con- won’t abate, even as our desire for
Differential privacy as a mathemati- ENCRYPTED MESSAGING sortium of Investigative Journalists—a verification grows.
cal concept has been around for over NETWORKS collaboration between 370 journalists
a decade. Only recently, has it been
In the past year, journalists have from 76 countries—who spent a year 141
implemented by companies like Apple
relied on closed, encrypted messag- reporting on a massive cache of 11.5 MEDIA TROLLS
and Google as a way to analyze ag- million leaked records showing the
ing networks like Keybase and Signal. Trolling is a specific type of cyber-bul-
gregate data without compromising offshore holdings of 140 politicians
However, many news organizations lying that often involves spamming,
user privacy. Differential privacy is from around the world, 12 current
do not have guidelines on how these hate-speech, doxxing attacks, and
achieved by strategically introducing and former world leaders, and more.
networks can and should be used at other forms of harassment. Early
random noise into the dataset. It is The records, known as the “Panama
work. For example, a company may in 2019, trolls found a video of new-
most useful when answering simple Papers,” were sent from a little-known
determine that emails are the intellec- ly-elected Representative Alexandria
(low-sensitivity) queries. It’s good for law firm in Panama. In the summer
tual property of the organization and Ocasio-Cortez taken when she was a
finding out traffic patterns in Goo- of 2017, the Senate Committee on
are subject to professional codes of college student in 2010, and they edited

PRIVACY cont.
a short clip to make her look provoca- forward. Facebook had partnered with 144
tive and helped it go viral. In reality, she the Poynter Institute’s International PERSISTENT AUDIO
and a friend were recreating the benign Fact-Checking Network to combat SURVEILLANCE
dance sequence from The Breakfast fake news on its platform. However, the
With new smart speaker technology
Club movie. Controlling trolls online partnership itself was difficult to mon-
and better machine learning systems,
has forced many people – as well as itor and further illustrates Facebook’s
public areas are prime spots for sur-
media outlets – to take a position on commanding influence over digital
veillance. China has already deployed
the line between freedom of speech media. Authenticity in the media has
networks of speakers that eavesdrop
and censorship. Twitter, Facebook, branched beyond fake news from click-
on conversations to extract meaning.
and Instagram have all updated their bait sites in Macedonia to a new type of
In 2018, Walmart patented technology
community standards to limit hate- fabricated media: videos. Deepfakes
to listen in on the interactions be-
speech. Reddit has banned groups like are computer-generated face-swap
tween store guests and employees, as
r/Incels for violating the site’s commu- videos. The trend originated on Reddit
well as ambient noise—clothing being
nity standards (though there is plenty in late 2017 and amassed over 80,000
moved on and off racks, items being
of awful content still to be found on the subscribers before getting shut down.
selected from shelves, and the clicking
rest of the site). And yet, neo-Nazi site
sounds we make on our mobile devic-
Amnesty International built an online tool Daily Stormer resurfaced in February 143
es. All of this noise can be used to hunt
to detect and track internet trolls. 2018 after being effectively shut down DATA OWNERSHIP
for insights. But it also raises ques-
by their domain host. State-sponsored In a legal sense, data ownership has tions about privacy.
trolling is most often linked to Russia typically referred to IP or copyright
but according to research from Oxford
University, 28 countries and counting
data. However, the rise of wearable 145
have cyber troops of humans and bots
smart devices and IoT have made BLOCKING THE AD BLOCKERS
people more aware about how their
for the purpose of manipulating public Ad blockers are software that automag-
behavior, health statistics, and online
opinion on social media. (For further ically remove ads from webpages. Peo-
activity is collected and monetized
reading, we recommend accessing ple who use ad blockers are doing so
by large companies. You technically
Oxford’s full report “Troops, Trolls, and either because ads slow down a site’s
own the photos you post to Facebook
Troublemakers.”) loading time, or because the ads served
and the videos you upload to YouTube.
are offensive, inappropriate for kids, or
News and entertainment organiza-
142 tions do not own the site analytics that
aren’t safe for the workplace. It will be a
AUTHENTICITY these tech giants make available, and
struggle going forward, as users deploy
more blockers and websites deploy
Who and what is real online is become those metrics have been proven wrong
even more advanced anti-adblockers,
harder to determine, which is why au- more than once in the past year.
by dynamically rewriting the code that
thenticity is an important trend going
verifies a clean site.

ACCOUNTABILITY
& TRUST
146
STANDARDIZED
LABELING
147
DATA
GOVERNANCE
AND RETENTION
POLICIES
148
STRATEGIC
ENCRYPTION
MANAGEMENT
149
THE RISE OF
CHIEF ETHICS
OFFICERS

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
STANDARDIZED KEEP
LABELING
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT WHAT’S NEXT analyzes which artists influenced that

work. His research has inspired others
The spread of misinformation will To combat misinformation, platforms
to use similar network analysis, histor-
continue until the platforms and news will need to adopt standards that
ical data and machine learning to look
organizations adopt a standardized promote high-quality, factually correct
for similarities in literature, writing
system of labeling. content. News organizations should
and news. A system like this could be
work to make the newsgathering pro-
deployed to look for explicit and hid-
EXAMPLES cess completely transparent. Just as
den influencers on news stories. Now
consumers expect to see a byline on
In August 2019, Twitter finally pub- that news organizations are relying on
stories, because it creates a chain of
lished a blog post exposing a series of data, algorithms, and machine learning
accountability, they will soon expect to
Chinese Twitter bots that were inten- for various aspects of news gathering
know how stories were built. Report-
In 2019, several political leaders made tionally spreading misinformation on and publishing, they should commit to
dangerous and inaccurate accusations that the platform. It was transparent about ers aided and augmented by smart
radical transparency.
prominent news organizations and journal- the bots and removed them, and it also systems should explain what data
sets and tools they used. Meanwhile,
ists were spreading so-called “fake news.” promised not to accept sponsored WATCHLIST
posts from known rogue actors (state stories that were written in part or en-
tirely by computers should reflect that News organizations everywhere.
or otherwise).
an algorithm was responsible for the
There is no incentive for platforms or piece of content being read/ watched.
news organizations to use a standard-
Professor Ahmed Elgammal at Rutgers
ized system to prove a piece of con-
tent’s authenticity. University has developed an algorithm
that looks for novelty in paintings and

TRENDS 147 - 149
MORE PRIVACY AND SECURITY TRENDS
147 148 149

DATA GOVERNANCE AND STRATEGIC ENCRYPTION THE RISE OF CHIEF ETHICS
RETENTION POLICIES MANAGEMENT OFFICERS
Many organizations—from news and We’ve seen dozens of big attacks in In the aftermath of the #metoo
entertainment companies, to financial the past 24 months, and yet many of movement, employee protests at big
institutions to universities, hospitals, the organizations we entrust with our tech companies and revelations about
veterinarians, churches, Fortune 500 data are either not using encryption inappropriate behavior between col-
companies and beyond—store data or are using tools that are out of date. leagues at large companies, we expect
for compliance, business or customer Hackers know this, so we should ex- to see a new crop of CEOs – Chief
convenience. In the year ahead, every pect more attacks in the coming year. Ethics Officers – taking root within
organization will need to address best While encrypting data makes it harder organizations. These specialized CEOs
practices in data retention, with an to hack, encryption can also make it will have a hybrid skills set includ-
eye toward security. You would be harder for staff or consumers to make ing human resources management,
surprised to know how few organiza- legitimate use out of the data. In the risk management and law, diversity
tions have responsive data retention near-future, companies will need to expertise and a deep understanding of
policies that are updated according to devote serious resources into shoring technology. They will help ensure that
security issues—and for that matter, up their digital security, or risk losing a company’s core values are consis-
how many organizations have no poli- millions of dollars cleaning up after a tently reflected within their workforce,
cies at all. breach. but they will also make sure that a
company’s values represent society’s
moral principles.

POLICY &
REGULATIONS
150
THE FIRST
AMENDMENT IN A
DIGITAL AGE
151
SPLINTERNETS
152
ANTI-TRUST
LAWSUITS

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
THE FIRST AMENDMENT KEEP
IN A DIGITAL AGE
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT … to exclude persons from an other- voter suppression, discriminatory ad there will be much murkier debates
wise‐open online dialogue because targeting, privacy lapses, unfair cen- about what “should” be published.
The First Amendment shapes how
they expressed views with which the sorship, and algorithmic bias.” While Paying customers will naturally be
Silicon Valley thinks about the design,
official disagrees.” those findings are troubling, they’re more invested in decisions made by
development and implications of tech-
The ruling is a major step toward not illegal in the United States. As a the organization, and those choices —
nology. Its legal protections are broad
defining the rules of engagement for private company, Facebook can make whether it’s sharing or withholding a
in scope but limited in geography:
free speech on the internet. In fact, whatever moderation decision it wants fact, opinion or photo — may only fuel
they only apply in the United States.
the social media accounts of public with protection from Section 230 of the debate.
Publishers and platforms will increas-
officials may be one of the most signif- the Communications Decency Act. If
ingly need to consider how different
icant forums for discussion of public the posts were viewed in Germany, WATCHLIST
expectations of free speech inform
policy. Says Jameel Jaffer, Executive however, there’s a chance Facebook European Union; Federal Communica-
their operations.
Director of the Knight First Amend- would be liable under that country’s tions Commission; Google; Facebook;
ment Institute at Columbia University: hate speech laws.
EXAMPLES Microsoft; Apple; Amazon; Snap;
“The decision will help ensure the Instagram; YouTube; broadcasters;
A significant case in July 2019 clarified
integrity and vitality of digital spaces WHAT’S NEXT newspapers; radio stations; digital
the way in which Twitter is a public
that are increasingly important to our Debates about the First Amendment media organizations; Knight First
forum — and how the First Amendment
democracy.” boil down to what “can” be said. Expect Amendment Institute at Columbia
applies there. The Second Circuit
First Amendment protections are more decisions that wrestle with University; ACLU.
Court of Appeals affirmed a lower
broad. Facebook commissioned an ex- clarifying what is a public forum in the
court ruling in that same month that
ternal human rights audit in May 2018, public sphere and whether AI-gener-
President Donald Trump could not
which found “allegations of allowing ated text, images and video (like the
block followers on Twitter. The three-
the propagation of hate speech and faces from ThisPersonDoesNotExist.
judge panel held that “the First Amend-
misinformation and the facilitation of com) are legally protected speech. But
ment does not permit a public official

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
SPLINTERNETS REVISIT
LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
different rights in different places. and the state attorney general after a this session may be back next year.
As a result, we’re headed toward a data breach. Legislators in New York Without coordinated effort, splinter-
fragmented future with “splinternets” debated the New York Privacy Act, a nets will continue to proliferate in the
rather than a single world wide web. bill that would have given companies years ahead. This could make dissemi-
a fiduciary responsibility to protect nating quality journalism more difficult
EXAMPLES data — and established a right for New in regions around the world. It could
The California Consumer Privacy Act Yorkers to sue for damages if their also cause tremendous headaches for
(CCPA) will go into effect in January data was compromised. news organizations that distribute—
2020, giving Californians the power New laws will give real meaning to the and monetize—content for audiences
to stop businesses from selling their physical geography of where a user in multiple jurisdictions.
personal information and a GDPR-style accesses the internet and where the
New rules will give different rights to
right to have information deleted. Even companies are located. The CCPA, for WATCHLIST
internet users depending on where they
though the first enforcement actions example, protects California residents European Union; Google; Facebook;
live. That’s a new complexity publishers will
won’t come until several months later, no matter where they are; the scope of Baidu; Twitter; Amazon; Microsoft;
need to contend with.
businesses that serve Californians – other laws may be different. Netflix; Apple; Federal Communica-
even if they’re not based in California tions Commission; CA Attorney Gener-
— must be compliant by January. WHAT’S NEXT al Xavier Becerra, State Houses across
KEY INSIGHT
Vermont’s data broker regulation CCPA and the other state laws on the the United States.
Regulation is coming. In the internet’s law went into effect on January 1, horizon will impact ad targeting, but
first two decades, information crossed 2019. Washington State passed a watch for major changes in subscrip-
borders freely. Now local, state and law strengthening the definition of tion marketing tactics. Expect the
national governments are creating personally identifiable information in debate about regulating the internet
a complex patchwork of regulation the state and shortening the window (and its consequences) to continue.
that gives internet users (and data) companies have to notify consumers Bills that were defeated by lobbyists

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
ANTI-TRUST LAWSUITS REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT big tech companies have argued that Amazon uses customer data. Earlier in
there is plenty of competition – if peo- the year, she fined Google $5 billion for
Antitrust laws exist around the world.
ple don’t want to use Facebook, there antitrust infractions having to do with
They exist to ensure and promote fair
are lots of other social media compa- Android.
competition between companies for
nies they can use instead. Except it
the benefit of consumers. As media
isn’t quite that simple: companies use WHAT’S NEXT
and technology companies consol-
Facebook and Twitter for authentica-
idate in 2020, and as platforms and By August 2019, individual states were
tion. Facebook is launching a crypto- gearing up to launch antitrust probes
big tech companies increasingly find
currency platform that can be used of big tech firms, including Amazon,
themselves the target of investigation,
within Facebook’s ecosystem. Google Facebook, Google, and Apple. Up to
we anticipate a number of new an-
and Facebook effectively control the 20 state attorneys general would join
In 2019, Senator Elizabeth Warren called ti-trust cases brought before courts in
entire market for digital advertising, the Justice Department, Federal Trade
for big tech companies like Amazon and the U.S.
while Amazon is the leader in e-com- Commission and House Judiciary
Google to be broken up. merce.
EXAMPLES Committee in taking on big tech. The
In the E.U., the argument against big problem with existing antitrust laws is
There is some debate in the U.S.
tech has found more traction. In 2017, that they don’t always mesh with our
regarding the Sherman Act, which was
the E.U. fined Google a record-break- ever-evolving business landscape. For
originally written to regulate and break
ing $2.7 billion for what adjudicators example, Amazon recently acquired
apart railroad and oil tycoons, who had
said was illegally nudging users to its Zappos, Diapers.com and Whole
built America’s biggest monopolies.
comparison shopping site rather than Foods. Together, all three give the
What U.S. courts have yet to decide
to the online retailers themselves. In company a much larger retail foot-
is whether big tech companies are
September 2018, the EU’s Competition print, but individually, each acquisition
indeed monopolies, which would trig-
Commissioner Margrethe Vestag- doesn’t amount to unfair competition.
ger the Act’s application. So far, the
er began an investigation into how (It’s not the same as Walmart buying

ANTI-TRUST LAWSUITS cont.

Publix and Safeway.) However, as
Amazon continues to build digital pay-
ments, logistics and package delivery
infrastructure, it could indirectly crush
other retailers who don’t also use its
platform. But that still wouldn’t be ille-
gal. At the moment, we don’t have any
laws against being really, really smart.
WATCHLIST
2020 presidential candidates; Federal
Trade Commission; Federal Commu-
nications Commission; U.S. Supreme
Court; Amazon; Google; Facebook.

DRONES,
MAPS &
SATELLITES 153 156
MICROSATS AND DRONES AS
CUBESATS A SERVICE
154 157
DRONE LIVE MAPS
SURVEILLANCE
155
WIDE-AREA
MOTION
CAPTURING
INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
MICROSATS AND KEEP
CUBESATS
REVISIT
LATER VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT for a variety of purposes. Fleets of in an FCC fine of $900,000. Before
CubeSats now take photos of farmland that, Swarm Technologies failed to get
Entrepreneurs have already started
and beam them back down to earth to FCC approval to launch tiny satellites
launching thousands of low-cost,
help farmers assess their crops. Image – each smaller and lighter than an
high-value satellites. These satellites
analysis software can tell big box iPhone — because the agency was wor-
are small, capable of communicating
retailers, such as Walmart, how many ried that they’d be difficult to detect
with each other, and will photograph
cars are parked in their lots and look and monitor from the ground.
every inch of Earth’s surface every day
for trends over time. They can then do
of the year.  
the same with a competitor’s parking WHAT’S NEXT
lots to gather strategic intelligence.
EXAMPLES Mining companies can survey a swath
Swarm is still on a mission to launch
hundreds of its own CubeSats.
In 2020, hundreds of tiny satellites will be Miniature satellites, otherwise known of land to see who’s started drilling and Yet another company, Rocket Lab,
launched into space. as MicroSats or CubeSats, aren’t whether they’ve struck oil. Satellites launched more than a dozen CubeSats
new technology. They’ve actually monitor traffic, polar ice caps, and in partnership with NASA. In August
been in use by space agencies for even us. Unlike a traditional, large sat- 2019, BlackSky’s initial flock of com-
years. What’s changing is the launch ellite, when one CubeSats goes offline mercial Earth-imaging microsatel-
technology that lifts CubeSats into or gets damaged, the rest of the fleet lites successfully launched aboard a
orbit — and the number launching still works. Rocket Lab Electron rocket. But we
into space. Heavy investment into
But those hoping to launch CubeSats are expecting to see unprecedented
propulsion systems—not to mention
still need permission — and they don’t growth, especially as capabilities of
significant advancements in technol- always get it. Last year, Silicon Valley CubeSats grow in strategic utility.
ogy and cheaper components—are startup Swarm Technologies launched There are more than 3,500 MicroSats
making it easier to mass-produce tiny four CubsSats without first gaining and CubeSats scheduled for launch
satellites in a factory and launch them the official approvals, which resulted during the next few years – and that

MICROSATS AND CUBESATS cont.

doesn’t include satellites that are part Engineering Center for Microsatellites
of larger constellation systemes. Elon (China); SRI International; Naval Post-
Musk’s SpaceX won FCC approval to graduate School.
deploy 7,518 satellites to its Starlink
communications constellation.
WATCHLIST
Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet;
Planetary Resources; Airbus D&S;
DigitalGlobe; National Geospatial
Intelligence Agency; 3 Gimbals; Space
Exploration Technologies Corp; Orbital
Insight; Google; SpaceKnow; Capella
Space Inc; OneWeb; SpacePharma;
Santa Clara University; Technische
Universitat Berlin; Tokyo Institute of
Technology; University of Tokyo; Cali-
fornia Polytechnic University; Cornell
University; Boeing; Delft University
of Technology; NASA Ames Research
Center; Transcelestial; NSLComm;
Earthcube; Aerial & Maritime; Fleet
Space; Astrocast; Kepler Communi-
cations; GeoOptics; Hera Systems;
Sky and Space Global; Astro Digital;
Kanagawa University; The Aerospace
Corporation; Los Alamos Nation-
al Labratory; NRL Naval Center for
Space; Space and Missile Defense
Command; Satellogic; Spire; US Air
Force; Lawrence Livermore National
Labratory; MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace
Donganghong; National University of
Defense Technology (China); Shanghai

TRENDS 154 - 156
MORE DRONES, MAPS & SATELLITE TRENDS
154 155 citing the infringement of consti-

DRONE SURVEILLANCE WIDE-AREA MOTION CAPTURING tutional rights. But the technology
continues to be popular among law
Drones now come in all shapes and For the 2018 ball drop in Times Square,
enforcement.
sizes, and they can be used in a variety the New York City Police Department
of settings for surveillance. Advanced used a police drone to monitor the
156
camera technology can capture pho- crowds. It wasn’t the first time a wide
DRONES AS A SERVICE
tos and video from 1,000 feet away, area eye in the sky system was used to
while machine learning software can watch citizens. In 2016, Baltimore po- Powerful, commercial drones may be
remotely identify who we are and lock lice deployed “wide-area surveillance” out of reach for some companies who
on to our bodies as we move around–all run by Ohio-based Persistent Sur- need occasional — rather than ongo-
without our knowledge. Interconnect- veillance Systems. Aircraft carrying ing — access. New drones as a service
ed drones will enable the mass track- high-resolution cameras fly over the business models are borrowing from
ing of people at concerts, vehicles on city continuously for up to 10 hours at other successful industries (car rental,
the highway, amusement park attend- a time, photograph a 30-square-mile scooter sharing). This also reduces the
ees—which we may already expect radius, and then send that information need for specially-trained staff and
from law enforcement. back down to analysts on the ground. licensed drone pilots.
Wide-area motion imagery technol-
ogy allows police to surreptitiously
track any person or vehicle within the
area, and it’s been requested by the
Miami-Dade Police Department and
in cities elsewhere in the world. The
ACLU and a number of privacy experts
have asked for a review of the system,

INFORMS ACT
STRATEGY NOW
LIVE MAPS REVISIT

LATER
KEEP
VIGILANT
WATCH
KEY INSIGHT tools, is big business. Governments, Space Inc; OneWeb; SpacePharma;
big agricultural corporations, intelli- Santa Clara University; Technische
Constellations of tiny satellites orbiting
gence agencies, shipping companies Universitat Berlin; Tokyo Institute of
above will soon generate live maps of ev-
and logistics firms all want access, so Technology; University of Tokyo; Cali-
erything happening back down on earth.
they’re willing to pay tens of millions of fornia Polytechnic University; Cornell
dollars a year for access. The com- University; Boeing; Delft University
EXAMPLES bined valuation of companies such as of Technology; NASA Ames Research
Rather than near-real time snapshots Planet, Airbus D&S, MDA and Digital- Center; Transcelestial; NSLComm;
of our activity on the ground, live maps Globe is well into the tens of billions. Earthcube; Aerial & Maritime; Fleet
do just that: they reveal data, and even Space; Astrocast; Kepler Communi-
Live mapping and analysis will help
analyze it, as we move about our daily cations; GeoOptics; Hera Systems;
us better understand the pulse of our
Live maps reveal data as we move about lives. For example, a new crop of mi- Sky and Space Global; Astro Digital;
cities, gain a deeper view into weath-
our daily lives crosatellites are capable of measuring Kanagawa University; The Aerospace
er events and even dive into criminal
the concentrations of heat-trapping Corporation; Los Alamos Nation-
activity. But that goes both ways. Live
gasses such as methane, in real time. al Labratory; NRL Naval Center for
maps could also become a national
They will track not only the concentra- Space; Space and Missile Defense
security liability.
tion of gasses, but also the industries, Command; Satellogic; Spire; US Air
companies, neighborhoods, individual Force; Lawrence Livermore National
WATCHLIST
facilities and nations making the big- Labratory; MIT; Shenzhen Aerospace
gest impacts. This is one use case for Space Systems Loral; MDA; Planet; Donganghong; National University of
how live maps could soon be created. Planetary Resources; Airbus D&S; Defense Technology (China); Shanghai
DigitalGlobe; National Geospatial Engineering Center for Microsatellites
WHAT’S NEXT Intelligence Agency; 3 Gimbals; Space (China); SRI International; Naval Post-
Exploration Technologies Corp; Orbital graduate School.
Already, near-real time maps, coupled Insight; Google; SpaceKnow; Capella
with machine learning and analysis
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
LEAD AUTHOR CO-AUTHORS ADDITIONAL RESEARCH
AMY WEBB ELENA GIRALT MARC PALATUCCI KARA LIPSKY
Amy Webb is a quantitative futur- Elena is a community convener explor- Marc Palatucci is a media innovation ROY LEVKOWITZ
ist. She is the founder of the Future ing real-world use cases for emerging strategist and writer. He holds a BA in
Today Institute and is a professor of technology. She has an MBA from the Linguistics and Languages from NYU’s EDITING
strategic foresight at the NYU Stern NYU Stern School of Business. She Gallatin School of Individualized Study, JENNIFER ALSEVER
School of Business. Webb was named has spent the past year researching an MBA in Emerging Technology from Jennifer Alsever is the Future Today
to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 blockchain and working at Civil, a NYU’s Stern School of Business, and Institute's Editorial Director. Previous-
management thinkers most likely to blockchain startup building tools for serves as editor-at-large for a maga- ly she spent 24 years as a professional
shape the future of how organizations journalists. Elena co-founded Block- zine and creative media agency in New journalist, contributing business, tech-
are managed and led and won the chain Latinx, a monthly meetup group York. His work investigates the ways nology and startup stories for such
2017 Thinkers50 Radar Award. She is that explores what blockchain means in which the future of technology will publications as the New York Times,
a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University’s for Latinos and for Latin America. redefine industry, art and society. The Wall Street Journal, Fortune
Säid School of Business, a Fellow in Magazine, CNNMoney, Inc Magazine,
the United States-Japan Leadership SAM GUZIK JOHN PAUL TITLOW NBC, Wired, Fast Company and En-
Program and a Foresight Fellow in the trepreneur. She is also the author of
Sam Guzik is a senior product manag- John Paul Titlow is a journalist and
US Government Accountability Office the acclaimed young adult trilogy, the
er for Hearst newspapers and digital content strategist focused on music,
Center for Strategic Foresight. She Trinity Forest Series.
journalist. Previously, Sam served as media, and innovation. He’s written for
is a former Visiting Nieman Fellow
editor for strategy and platforms at Fast Company, Vice, Billboard, GQ and
at Harvard University and served as
Newsday, where he helped secure $1.5 other outlets. He also consults with CREATIVE DIRECTION & DESIGN
a Delegate on the former US-Russia
Bilateral Presidential Commission.
million of grant funding for nextLI, a brands on content strategy, having EMILY CAUFIELD
project dedicated to creating a com- previously led brand voice and editorial
She is the bestselling author of three
munity to discuss Long Island’s future. for Sonos. John Paul’s writing has also PRODUCTION
books, including The Big Nine: How
The Tech Titans and Their Thinking
He is a graduate of NYU Stern School appeared in textbooks and antholo- CHERYL COONEY
of Business, Columbia University Grad- gies, with one film adaptation in the
Machines Could Warp Humanity (Pub-
uate School of Journalism and Wash- works for Netflix.
licAffairs March 2019) and The Signals
ington University in St. Louis.
Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is
Tomorrow’s Mainstream (Public Affairs
December 2016), which explains how The views expressed herein are the authors
to forecast emerging technology and own and are not representative of the greater
organizations in which they have been employed.
was a Washington Post Bestseller,
won the Gold Axiom Award for busi- The names of companies, services and products
ness books, and was selected as one mentioned in this report are not necessarily
of the best books the year by Fast intended as endorsements by the Future Today
Institute or this report’s authors.
Company, Inc. Magazine and Amazon.

ABOUT THE FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute helps leaders and their or-
ganizations prepare for deep uncertainty and complex futures. We focus
exclusively on how emerging technology and science will disrupt business,
transform the workforce and ignite geopolitical change. Our pioneering,
data-driven forecasting methodology and tools empower leaders to make
better decisions about the future, today.
Our forecasting methodology has been featured in the MIT Sloan Man-
agement Review and in the Harvard Business Review, and it is taught at
universities around the world. FTI clients and partners include government
agencies, Fortune 100 companies, investment firms, news and entertain-
ment media organizations and associations. Our focus is technology, and
we intentionally work with a wide variety of organizations to enable the
transfer of knowledge and best practices across industries.
Reliable strategic foresight depends on both ingenuity and rigorous evalu-

ation. We work in cross-disciplinary teams comprised of trained futurists
as well as subject-area experts, technologists, designers, process-thinkers
and creative minds. FTI is based in New York City and Washington, D.C.

DISCLAIMER
The Future Today Institute’s 2020 Entertainment, Media and Technolo-
gy Trends Report relies on data, analysis and modeling from a number of
sources, which includes: sources within public and private companies,
securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies, mar-
ket research firms, conference presentations and papers and news media
stories. This report stems from the Future Today Institute’s annual Trends
report, which is now in its 12th year of publication, and from the Institute’s
2019 EMT Trends Report. FTI’s reports are occasionally updated on the FTI
website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are

referenced in this report and are highlighted with an asterisk in the appen-
dix. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities listed in this
presentation.
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their
respective owners and who do not endorse the statements in this report.
All rights in marks are reserved by their respective owners. We disclaim any
and all warranties, express or implied, with respect to this report.

NEW BOOK BY FTI FOUNDER AMY WEBB
The Big Nine aren’t the The future of AI—and by extension, the future of humanity—is controlled by just nine com-
panies. There are six in the US, the G-MAFIA: Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, IBM
villains in this story. and Apple. Three are in China, and they are the BAT: Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent. If the fast-
In fact, they are our best est-growing power to change the future was concentrated in the hands of only nine de-
cision-makers, would you worry? If those decision-makers were driven by market forces
hope for the future. or politics instead of what’s good for you, would you do something? Because our futures
depend on courageous leadership right now.
Amy Webb has written one of the most important The Big Nine is an important and intellectually crisp
books of the year and everyone should read it. work that illuminates the promise and peril of AI...it
should be discussed in classrooms and boardrooms
JOHN NOONAN
NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT AND FORMER NUCLEAR LAUNCH OFFICER around the world.
ALEC ROSS
The Big Nine is provocative, readable, and relatable. AUTHOR OF THE INDUSTRIES OF THE FUTURE
Amy Webb demonstrates her extensive knowledge of
the science driving AI and the geopolitical tensions The Big Nine is thoughtful and provocative, taking
that could result between the US and China in par- the long view and most of all raising the right issues
ticular. She offers deep insights into how AI could around AI and providing a road map for an optimistic
reshape our economies and the current world order, future with AI.
and she details a plan to help humanity chart a better
PETER SCHWARTZ
course. SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, SALESFORCE.COM, AND AUTHOR OF THE ART OF THE
LONG VIEW
ANJA MANUEL
STANFORD UNIVERSITY, COFOUNDER AND PARTNER RICEHADLEYGATES
“Reads like a thriller… But she affords us a clear, jar-
The Big Nine makes bold predictions regarding the gon-free view of the power and potential of AI.”
future of AI. But unlike many other prognosticators, THE FINANCIAL TIMES
Webb sets sensationalism aside in favor of careful
arguments, deep historical context, and a frightening “An important exploration of the benefits, risks, and
degree of plausibility. responsibilities that come with AI.”
JONATHAN ZITTRAIN INDRA NOOYI
GEORGE BEMIS PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AND PROFESSOR
FORMER CHAIRMAN AND CEO, PEPSICO
OF COMPUTER SCIENCE, HARVARD UNIVERSITY

WE INVITE YOU TO LEARN AND USE THE
TOOLS OF A FUTURIST.
THE SIGNALS ARE TALKING: Why Today’s Fringe is Tomorrow’s

Mainstream arrives at a fortuitous moment, as it gives critical
guidance on how to think like a futurist in order to most
accurately answer pressing questions about the future of
emerging technologies, science, our economy, political systems,
and civil liberties.
A rare treasure: a substantive guide written in a narrative that’s a

delight to read.
CHRISTOPHER GRAVES
GLOBAL CHAIR, OGILVY PUBLIC RELATIONS
[The Signals Are Talking] provides several brain-bending future pos-

sibilities...Webb’s stellar reputation in this red-hot field should gener-
ate demand.
BOOKLIST • WASHINGTON POST BESTSELLER
A logical way to sift through today’s onslaught of events and informa-
• 2017 THINKERS50 RADAR AWARD WINNER
tion to spot coming changes in your corner of the world. • WINNER, 2017 GOLD AXIOM AWARD
KIRKUS
• FAST COMPANY’S BEST BOOKS OF 2016
• AMAZON’S BEST BOOKS OF 2016

The Future Today Institute
hello@futuretodayinstitute.com
267-342-4300
www.futuretodayinstitute.com

FTI Journalism Trends 2020

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

FTI Journalism Trends 2020

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

FTI 2020

3RD ANNUAL EDITION

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 2

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 3

Entertainment, Media and Technology pacts on how every organization collects

more than 8 million cumulative views.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 5

Ask the right questions to determine

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 6

12 - 24 months 2 - 5 years 5 - 10 years 10+ years

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 7

USE TIME CONES, NOT LINES CONT.

Tactical decisions must fit in to an organization’s strategy. At this point in

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 8

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 9

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 10

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 11

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 12

03 Who has been funding new

04 Which populations will be

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 13

U NC ERTA IN TY ABOU T T E CH NOLOGY

created a simple framework for our clients

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 14

• Where does this trend create • How do we leverage this trend

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 15

EACH TREND OFFERS SIX IMPORTANT DATA POINTS FOR

We recommend using our 2020 Tech Trends

process to evaluate disruptive technologies

01 KEY INSIGHT 03 WHAT’S NEXT 05 YEARS ON THE LIST 06 ACTION METER

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 16

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 17

BUILDING YOUR AXES For example

The goal of every organization should

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 18

Online grocery shopping stagnates.

FROM HEADLINES TO SCENARIOS

I MME DI ATE I MPACT

Schedule quarterly Schedule weekly or

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 20

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 22

LO N G E R-T ERM IMPACT

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

KEY INSIGHT AI IN MEDIA the U.S.-based newspaper group that

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 23

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 24

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 25

LO N G E R-T ERM IMPACT

AI: A NON-TECHNICAL PRIMER

ORGANIZATIONS LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 27

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 28

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 29

LO N G E R-T ERM IMPACT

LOW DEGREE OF CERTAINTY

GENERAL AI TRENDS IN MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT cont.

© 2019-2020 FUTURE TODAY INSTITUTE 31

GENERAL AI TRENDS IN MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT cont.

LO N G E R-T ERM IMPACT