“Where Did You Get This Number?

” with Anthony Salvanto

Episode: Farms, storms, taxes: The Iowa Caucuses and can Dems sway the rural vote? [11/6/19]
Guest: CBS News 2020 Campaign Reporter Adam Brewster

Transcript:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren at ILJC 11-01-19

[00:00:00]

That if we are going to meet the challenges of our time, we need big ideas.

Former Vice President Joe Biden at ILJC 11-01-19

[00:00:09]

You all know this election is more important than any one you’ve ever voted in, no matter what your age.

Sen. Bernie Sanders at ILJC 11-01-19

[00:00:17]

The Democratic Party must become the party of the working class of this country.

Mayor Pete Buttigieg at ILJC 11-01-19

[00:00:25]

So Iowa, are you ready to bring this country together? Are you ready to turn the page to a new era together? Then
let us make history together and we will have a lot to celebrate together in November of next year. And we will
know where to go from there.

Anthony

[00:00:52]

Say what you will about whether the Iowa caucuses ought to get all the attention that they do. Whether it’s largely a
media play by the candidates, a bid to prove themselves and parlay it into success in later states. There are specific
items and issues that it does wield the spotlight. Ones that don’t necessarily apply to Democrats elsewhere. One of
them is climate change and how it has affected the U.S. agriculture industry and that in turn affects all of us--the
economy, our food supply. Democrats lost the rural vote and small cities in 2016 by about two to one. Can they
turn that around and can the Iowa caucuses help their candidate start to appeal out there. Then we’ll talk about Pete
Buttigieg, who is competitive now in the Iowa caucuses. In the latest polling he’s up to 14% in our CBS News poll.
That was double his previous support. Other polls subsequently showing him in the mix as well. Iowa traditionally a
place where, perhaps, a lesser known national figure can make gains. Can he compete with the Biden, Warren, and
Sanders campaigns? And how does he do it? We’ll talk about that. We’ll get reports from the field with CBS News
Political Reporter Adam Brewster. All that coming up. I am Anthony Salvanto and this is Where Did You Get This
Number. We are talking to Adam Brewster-- CBS News Political Reporter from what has become our Des Moines
Bureau. Is that is that fair to say, say Adam? You’re there in Des Moines, right?
Adam

[00:02:27]

Yes I’m here in Des Moines--one half of the Des Moines Bureau.

Adam

[00:02:29]

Well you know what, it's like, it's like when when Neil Armstrong landed on the moon, you know wherever he put
down the land lander, that becomes Tranquility Base. So you know, for you rogue warriors out there, wherever you
set that, wherever you set down, wherever you call in from there, there’s the Des Moines bureau, there is there is an
Iowa bureau. No I'm really delighted to have you join. Let me start off by talking about climate change and
agriculture there in Iowa. You have what I found to be a really interesting piece up on CBS News.com today, where
you went out and you talked to some farmers, those involved in agriculture, there in Iowa. Can you unpack that a
little bit and tell us tell us what you found?

Adam

[00:03:16]

Yes so this is a movement that has kind of picked up steam in the Democratic caucuses this cycle. And essentially in
Iowa, you hear a lot of talk about the impact of flooding and historically wet weather has had on farmers across the
country. It's cost them about seven billion dollars in lost revenue according to an Iowa State professor. And there
have been some people here in Iowa, some climate activists and farmers who have said ‘well farming and agriculture
accounts for about 9 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.’ And there are practices that farmers know how to
do that can help improve their carbon footprint and help get agriculture to a carbon neutral state, and be part of the
solution to climate change.

Anthony

[00:04:04]

Another interesting part of your piece was to me, the way in which there's a difference between people who, with all
good meaning, feel like they're saying ‘we need to do something about climate change.’ But where the rubber meets
the road. Among the farmers that you talked to, they're talking about not only how it's complicated but how they
also might be bearing risk if they take steps to try to mitigate emissions or help the environment. Can you describe a
little bit of the detail of what they mean by bearing risk in order to do these things?
Adam

[00:04:45]

So what that risk comes in is they are putting some type of investment in, in a monetary and time investment, and
aren't necessarily seeing an immediate return on that from a monetary standpoint. So one of the practices that they
advocate for is planting more cover crops in the winter. Now according to the EPA and a branch of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture, for every 20 million acres of cover crops planted--which is about 5 percent of U.S. crop
land--that can soak up enough carbon dioxide equivalent to offset emissions from about 13, almost 13 million
passenger vehicles. Now what do I mean by cover crops? These are crops that are planted sometimes in the winter,
rather than just leaving the soil bare. So that can be something like a cereal rye or oats. Why don't all farmers do
this? Well, part of that is as I said because of cost. The seed can cost about 30 dollars an acre. And the farmers have
to go in and plant it, and then they have to take it back out of their soil before they can put in their commodity
crop, what they make money off of. In Iowa, for many farmers that is corn and soybeans. So it costs the farmers
again on the back end to kill it in the spring if they were to wait for it to mature to harvest, which they don't really
have anywhere to sell these crops. Also, in the end farmers say you know after about 10 years you'll see this payoff,
but not--farmers right now are squeezed. Not just from trade but things like ethanol. And of course as I mentioned
earlier, just the historically wet weather has damaged farm revenue. So every penny they spend is something that
they have to know that they can see an investment on. And so providing some of these incentives and payments for
these environmental practices, the idea is you can get more farmers involved in fighting climate change.

Anthony

[00:06:28]

That's, that is fascinating. Adam, let me ask you on the political side of things, are you seeing any of the candidates
in particular go out and try to win over those in farming, those in agriculture, those in rural areas of Iowa?

Adam

[00:06:46]

I think you're seeing a lot more of them spend time in rural Iowa. We were at--I was at a forum last week I should
say, with former Iowa governor and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, as well as a few other prominent
Iowans talking about rural voting. And they said they've seen more attention, you know, on rural Iowa than they
have in years past. When you talk to people who know rural Iowa, they say, you know, ‘Democrats may not win
outright there, but it's about slimming the margins.’ I think former Vice President Joe Biden's campaign thinks there
are a lot of moderates out in rural America that they can target. Senator Elizabeth Warren has a rural political
coordinator, who's out there, and that team has covered the state knocking doors out there. Senator Bernie Sanders
campaign has people all over. Mayor Pete Buttigieg has offices--more than 20 offices spread across the straight--
state, excuse me. So Democrats are going after these rural communities because they can add up in the caucuses.
One of the first stories we did was looking at the impact the rural vote can have. And of course you need to do well
in places like Des Moines, and in other cities like Cedar Rapids or like Davenport, or like Sioux City to win. But
doing well in rural Iowa is a strategy. It worked for John Edwards to get him in second place in 2008, where
Democrats can make gains.
Anthony

[00:08:02]

That's--that's right. And what happens is there are only so many delegates to go around in Iowa, right? So there are
only so many delegates allocated to places like Des Moines, or Ames, or Cedar Rapids. Even if they turn out large
numbers of people there, they can't necessarily get all the delegates in the state, because there are also delegates
allocated to be won out in rural areas. And so you can kind of magnify the impact of those rural areas as well, and
good campaigns know that and play that strategy. You mentioned Mayor Pete--Pete Buttigieg. Now he was in
fourth place, but rising in the latest CBS News poll out there. He was at 14 percent. He had doubled his support.
And then there's been other polls that subsequently confirmed or showed that he's been gaining standing, that he's
up there or at least vying with the Bidens and Warrens and Sanders campaigns out there. Now, one of the things
that I was interested in, is that among Iowa voters, only eight percent said that it was very important to have
someone young. And of course Buttigieg is young relative to the rest of the field. Only 11 percent said that they
wanted an outsider--he of course does not hold office in D.C. So I'm wondering, from the people that you're talking
to covering that campaign and talking to voters--what is it. What's behind his, his gaining steam?

Adam

[00:9:28]

One of the things you often hear is that he's, some people say he's just a ‘breath of fresh air’ or they like the way
that he talks about issues, and is able to, you know, kind of have an answer for most questions that get brought up
at these caucus events. Which if you haven't been to one, essentially these candidates speak for maybe 25, 30, 40
minutes and then take anywhere from three, four, or five or six questions depending on how much time they have
allotted in their schedule. So this is, you know, it becomes a conversation and people walk away being very
impressed typically with how Mayor Pete Buttigieg handles those questions that they throw at him. When--you talk
about his jump in the polls that we've seen recently Anthony--you know, 14 percent in our latest poll, and then a
little higher in some subsequent polls. It's something that we have been expecting for several months. He draws, has
drawn large crowds here for months consistently large crowds. I remember going to Shenandoah Iowa back in late
July on a Saturday night. And as I was walking in, I happened to hear you know, some people from the town who
were just going saying ‘I don't remember the last time I saw this many cars’ in Page County Iowa, where it was
being held. Or when I was in Davenport with him about six weeks ago, I parked a few blocks from a college where
he was holding an event. And a postal worker asked me ‘what's going on at the college?’ and I said ‘oh, you know,
Pete Buttigieg is speaking over there.’ And she said ‘I have never seen the streets like this before.’ So there has been
lots of interest in him. So we've kind of started to see the polls catch up to that interest. And maybe it's now people
starting to put him up near the top as opposed to just being interested in him, because in Iowa as much as it is
important to be a first choice, everybody has lists of who's their second third fourth and fifth choices.

Anthony

[00:11:10]

Adam, let me talk to you a little bit about something that I've seen in his speeches, Buttigieg brings up as well as
other candidates. And that is faith. Is that something that's resonating? Is that something that you see the candidates
talking more about? And if so, is it something that seems to be helping them?
Adam

[00:11:29]

There are a handful of candidates that talk about their faith, but the ones that chiefly come to mind are Mayor Pete
Buttigieg and Senator Cory Booker, who speak about it a lot. And it's never in a, ‘I'm a Christian, therefore you
should be a Christian’ way. It is ‘I'm a Christian, and therefore this is why I think what I think’ or ‘these are the
values that I learned from this.’ And Iowa’s a heavily Christian state. And there are people here, Democrats here,
who I've heard say ‘we have felt forgotten’. Mayor Pete Buttigieg likes to say you know, ‘God doesn't belong to a
political party’ and that resonates with people here who have been longing you know for a Democrat to speak that
way. And you know, in an article I wrote in July I mentioned the Iowa State Auditor here who flipped that seat last
year. The state auditor race is obviously not something that always draws tons and tons of fanfare, but his--part of
his message was faith, and he says people come up to him all the time and say ‘thank you for talking about this this
is important for me.’ So we've heard candidates talk about it, and that's part of the reason why some of these, you
know, especially when they get out in rural areas--we've talked to county chairs in rural areas who say that
candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Cory Booker get good receptions when they go out there. Now whether that
means people are necessary committed to them, they are at least happy to hear that message and happy to hear
Democrats speaking about that.

Anthony

[00:12:48]

Adam we're going to take a short break here. And on the other side of it we're going to talk about taxes and
healthcare.

Joe Biden on PBS Newshour 10-27-19

[00:12:59]

Medicare for all, do you think there’s been any truth in advertising that? It’s gonna raise taxes on middle-class
people, not just wealthy people. Well, I’m not only--even Bernie acknowledges you gotta raise taxes.

Elizabeth Warren 11-02-19

[00:13:11]

It doesn’t raise taxes on anybody but billionaires. And you know what, the billionaires can afford it and I don’t call
them middle class. So billionaire! That’s where it worked.

Reporter: So anyone under a billion dollars net worth—

Warren: That’s right, is not paying a penny more. That’s exactly right.
Anthony

[00:14:00]

Plenty of back and forth on the trail Adam, especially now between Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden talking about
competing visions for what to do about healthcare--in particular Medicare for all. We know that it resonates in
particular with progressives. You know Joe Biden has talked about something, you know, I guess he would call a--
characterized as more moderate, a lot of argument over whether or not it can be paid for without raising middle
class taxes. Is there a larger sense among the campaigns that just by talking about whether or not they raise taxes,
that they're sort of going through this issue and maybe alienating or putting off some of the voters they need to win
down the line in the general?

Adam

[00:14:44]

I think that the taxes issue will be interesting to follow in Iowa over the next couple of months. Especially since it's
really been the past, you know, five, six weeks that Senator Warren has come under the microscope for her pledge
to not raise middle class taxes. Of course, she explains it differently than Senator Bernie Sanders who says, ‘yeah
your taxes will go up but overall you will be paying less.’ And some Sanders supporters, when you talk to them
about their taxes, they say ‘I'm going to be paying less overall.’ But of course the candidates such as former Vice
President Biden and Mayor Buttigieg, who talk about you know creating a public option--Mayor Buttigieg likes to
use the term ‘Medicare for all who want it.’ Vice President Biden said last week, he will not be raising taxes on the
middle classes period from from his plan to add a public option. It is a stance that you expect to see him hit because
you can almost hear the attack, you know Republican ads in a general election. Democrats like to say if someone
like Senator Warren is the nominee, people like Joe Biden and his supporters say ‘well we're afraid of being attacked
by the Republicans’ next, next September next October about raising middle class taxes and whether people will be
scared to vote for us because of that reason.

Anthony

[00:15:54]

Is it your sense when you're talking to the crowds at Biden events, Warren events, Sanders events, that they're
looking for a specific set of plans, or are they using the healthcare issue as something symbolic, as something as to
measure whether or not a candidate gets it, for lack of a better word? That something in their view needs to be done
with the healthcare system?

Adam

[00:16:21]

I think that the people who, when you go to Senator Warren and Senator Sanders events, they think something
drastic needs to be done with health care. Now interestingly enough, I've run across a decent amount of Senator
Warren supporters over the summer who say, you know, their first choice might be actually a public option that
keeps private insurance in place. And they tend to just like Senator Warren enough that they feel comfortable
enough with her Medicare for All plan as a policy, as a-- that eliminates private insurance, that they still support her.
But they feel that some candidates don't--the supporters of Senator Sanders and Senator Warren you know, who are
full believers in, you know, a single-payer, no private insurance, government-run healthcare plan don't believe that
that it goes far enough. And I've heard some people question about you know whether it would be, you know,
create like a tiered system where their private insurance might be better than the public option.
Now those who support, you know, people like Senator Biden, or or you know Mayor Buttigieg, they are all for--
they do not want to get rid of that you know public-private option. Iowa is interestingly enough--private insurance
is a huge industry in the state. So when I've gone around and asked people, I would say a little more than half have
probably said that they prefer a public option, leaving private insurance in place. The Des Moines Register in a
September poll basically showed about 40 percent of people said that they're comfortable with a completely
government-run system that eliminates private insurance. Another 28 percent said they are comfortable with it, but
they think it's bad policy, and a lot of people, who I talked to--about half the people I talked to who do not support
a fully government-run system, say they're just afraid of the politics of it. I've talked to some doctors and nurses and
some retired doctors and nurses, who say don't worry about care or quality of care going down, they're just worried
about whether if it's a losing political issue.

Anthony

[00:18:09]

And that comes back to what we've seen from the start of this campaign, where Democrats are really focused on
electability. Now that means gaming out what other people may think, and certainly they hear plenty of polls, and
hear about maybe the broader electorate may or may not support a plan like this. But that's where they're trying to
game out whether or not somebody plans might have broader appeal. It's quite a bank shot in American politics to
do things like that, but it certainly seems to be the dynamic now. Adam, let me ask you--last question, by way of
telling us where you're headed next. What should be, what should we be watching for and what should the political
junkies who are watching Iowa so closely be keeping an eye on over the next week?

Adam

[00:18:54]

I think over the next week or the next two weeks, maybe even leading up to the debate, whether some of these
moderate candidates like a Senator Amy Klobuchar or Mayor Pete Buttigieg start to see any little bit of a bump.
You know, there have been articles written about the status of former Vice President Biden here in Iowa and his
campaign feels very strongly, you know, about where they stand and the amount of voter contacts they made in the
month of October. But I think over the next couple of weeks, it'll be interesting to see because even when I was at
an event for the former vice president on Friday night before the Liberty and Justice Celebration, the big dinner in
Iowa on Friday night, most of the people I spoke to were supporters of him. But I found a few who, while they may
have supported him, were open to the idea of someone like Mayor Pete Buttigieg. I don't know if we'll see
necessarily tons of shifting over the next week. One thing I will highlight and circle that is coming up within the
next week is Senator Sanders is coming here with Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and they are holding a
series of climate conversations, and climate town halls in Council Bluffs and in Des Moines, and over in Coralville,
Iowa. I will be fascinated to see the reception that Senator Sanders gets. He has a lot of people here who still really
support him. He has a very strong base of support. It'll be interesting to see how much he can build that out. Of
course, he only barely lost to Secretary Clinton here in 2016.

Anthony

[00:20:19]

We will be watching indeed. Adam Brewster, CBS News political reporter, great stuff from on the ground, on the
campaign trail, out there where everybody seems to be these days. You know, I mean I confess, I expected a lot of
candidates to be spreading out over more states, given the way the the delegate allocations go, but it seems like
there's quite a number of them were going all in, or at least mostly in, in Iowa. So worth watching. Thank you
Adam. Really appreciate this really fun time.