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Fall/Winter 2017
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Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
Market Update K E Y
E C O N O MI C
I N F O R MA T I ON
The U.S. furniture and home furnishings industry is expected to
experience continued growth in the coming years due to several
positive secular tailwinds. The domestic economy and labor market
continue to improve and discretionary spending is reaching its
U.S. home building jumped to a 1-year
highest level since 2006. This has led to a strong housing market, high in October as recent hurricane
characterized by increasing new/existing housing starts and prices. disruptions in the South faded and
Consequently, sales of furniture and home furnishings increased by communities in the region started
almost 8% between 2014 and 2016 and over 4% from January to replacing damaged houses. Housing
October 2017. starts surged 13.7% to a seasonally
adjusted rate of 1.29 million units, the
Millennials, who now represent the largest consumer cohort in the highest level since October 2016.
furniture market, are increasing in age and buying homes—a trend
that will likely facilitate further furniture industry growth. Meanwhile, On November 1, 2017, the Federal Open
Baby Boomers, who are largely becoming “empty nesters,” are Market Committee concluded its two-day
moving into smaller living spaces and need to refurnish their new policy meeting, voting unanimously to hold
residences. As a result, furniture retailers will need to adapt their its benchmark federal funds rate between
approach in a changing landscape from a generational point of view. 1.00% and 1.25% and to continue the
process of balance sheet normalization,
which began in October.
Furniture companies must cope with a maturing omni-channel
environment, as consumers shop online to make informed purchases Economic growth accelerated to an
and for convenience. An omni-channel marketplace, driven by annualized rate of 3.0% in 3Q17, versus
Millennial consumption, is an attractive ground for disruptive an expected rise of 2.5%. An increase in
businesses. Design and assembly innovations, new technologies and inventory investment and a smaller trade
eco-friendly materials will attempt to reshape the industry. deficit offset a hurricane-related slowdown
in consumer spending and a decline in
construction.
Looking at the bedding/mattress category, the direct-to-consumer
(DTC) channel continues to capture market share in the growing and The U.S. economy added 261,000 jobs
sustainable industry. The mattress industry in the United States in October 2017, the most in more than
generates over $14 billion in sales annually, and has grown at a a year. Meanwhile, the U.S.
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% over the last 20 unemployment rate fell yet again to
years. DTC companies are disrupting the industry’s current high- 4.1%, its lowest level since 2000.
margin structure with a strong value proposition for the consumer,
which is expected to attract a broader customer base going forward.
DTC mattress companies currently represent less than 3% of the
total $14 billion market, but are poised to capture additional share as
innovation and competitive pricing continue to attract new
consumers. Source: NAR Generational Survey: Millennials Increasingly Buying in Suburban Areas, IBIS World, Trading
Page 2 Economics, FBIC Global Retail Tech, Tempur Sealy Investor Presentation, ISPA, Furniture Today,
Furniture Today’s “Top Bedding Producers”, U.S. Census Bureau
Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
12,500 5.0%
10.0%
4.0%
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data
Existing Home Sales and Housing Starts Furniture Sales by Product Group
6,000
Bedroom
5,000 19.5%
4,000
Living Room
3,000 50.4% Other 16.3%
2,000
1,000 Dining
Room
0 13.8%
Page 5
Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
Capital Markets Industry Insights | Q1 2016
($ in millions, except per share data) Avg. Equity Avg. % Change Avg. EV /
Number of Market Value in Market Value EBITDA Multiple
Companies 27-Nov-17 1 Month 3 Months 12 Months LTM 2017E
Market Sector
Furniture Retailers 13 $1,812 1.2% 10.0% 24.6% 12.3x 8.5x
Furniture Manufacturers 7 792 (1.5%) 9.2% 8.5% 8.9x 8.2x
Mattress Companies 3 1,875 (12.2%) (3.7%) 2.8% 13.0x 11.1x
Median (1.5%) 9.2% 8.5% 12.33x 8.50x
Mean (4.1%) 5.1% 12.0% 11.40x 9.27x
Market Indices
S&P 500 Index $2,601 1.0% 5.3% 18.3%
Dow Jones Industrials 23,581 0.9% 7.4% 23.3%
Russell 2000 Index 1,519 1.1% 8.1% 14.9%
Median 1.0% 7.4% 18.3%
Mean 1.0% 6.9% 18.8%
Sector index weight based upon company market capitalization at valuation date
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; data as of 11/27/2017. Furniture Retailers index includes Wayfair Inc., Williams-Sonoma Inc., Restoration Hardware, At Home Group Inc., Aaron’s Inc., Conn’s
Inc., Leon’s Furniture Limited, Rent-A-Center, Inc., goeasy Ltd., Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc., Pier 1 Imports, Inc., Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., and BMTC Group Inc.. Furniture Manufacturers index
includes Herman Miller, Inc., La-Z-Boy Incorporated, Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., Hooker Furniture Corporation, Flexsteel Industries, Inc., Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated, and Stanley Furniture
Company, Inc. Mattress Companies index includes Tempur Sealy International, Inc., Sleep Number Corporation, and Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc.
Page 6
Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
Capital Markets Industry Insights | Q1 2016
Furniture Manufacturers
Herman Miller, Inc. $34.35 92.8% $2,053 $2,198 0.97x 0.96x 0.92x 8.5x 8.3x 7.4x 11.4%
La-Z-Boy Incorporated 27.95 82.0% 1,348 1,224 0.80x 0.78x 0.76x 7.9x 7.7x 7.3x 10.1%
Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. 27.95 72.0% 768 716 0.95x 0.93x 0.89x 10.0x 8.5x 7.4x 9.5%
Hooker Furniture Corporation 48.05 95.1% 556 555 0.91x 0.87x 0.78x 10.9x NM NM 8.4%
Bassett Furniture Industries, Incorporated 38.45 93.1% 413 357 0.80x 0.79x 0.75x 8.1x 8.4x 7.8x 9.8%
Flexsteel Industries, Inc. 50.00 79.4% 392 345 0.72x NA NA 8.0x NM NM 9.1%
Stanley Furniture Company, Inc. 0.89 63.7% 13 12 0.28x NA NA NM NM NM (3.9%)
Median 82.0% $556 $555 0.80x 0.87x 0.78x 8.3x 8.4x 7.4x 9.5%
Mean 82.6% $792 $772 0.78x 0.87x 0.82x 8.9x 8.2x 7.5x 7.8%
Mattress Companies
Tempur Sealy International, Inc. $56.43 80.1% $3,057 $4,772 1.66x 1.71x 1.66x 11.6x 10.7x 10.1x 14.3%
Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. 32.71 77.2% 1,232 1,305 2.29x 2.23x 2.02x 14.3x 13.6x 11.9x 16.0%
Sleep Number Corporation 33.52 91.2% 1,335 1,305 0.94x 0.92x 0.87x NM 9.0x 8.1x (2.9%)
Median 80.1% $1,335 $1,305 1.66x 1.71x 1.66x 13.0x 10.7x 10.1x 14.3%
Mean 82.9% $1,875 $2,461 1.63x 1.62x 1.52x 13.0x 11.1x 10.0x 9.1%
20.0x
18.0x
Mean: 9.6x
16.0x
2.0x
NM NM
0.0x
Furniture Retailers Furniture Manufacturers Mattress Companies
(1) Index calculation excludes any companies with non-meaningful trading multiples
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; LTM values as of 11/27/2017
Segments weighted based on market cap values at period end
Page 8
Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
Sun Capital Partners Acquires FFO Home Bain Capital Acquires Bob’s Discount Furniture
In February 2016, Sun Capital Partners acquired FFO Home, a value-oriented In December 2013, Bain Capital announced the acquisition of Bob’s
home furnishings retailer from Alpine Investors. FFO Home partnered with Sun Discount Furniture, a large U.S. Furniture retailer operating in 47 stores
Capital to execute accelerated expansion, opening five stores last year, ending throughout the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. According to Tricia Patrick, a
the year with 41 stores in five U.S. Heartland states. This year, the retailer has former principal at Bain Capital, Bain Capital intends to lead Bob’s Discount
opened its first Mississippi store and is likely to open 8 to 10 stores by year end. Furniture toward continued growth in new cities. After the acquisition, Bob’s
Discount Furniture added a dozen stores last year, extending its presence
in Chicago. This year, the retailer pushed further west—into Milwaukee and
St. Louis—and entered Minneapolis on Memorial Day weekend. In the first
quarter of 2018, Bob’s plans to leap to the West Coast with its first Los
Page 12 Angeles-area stores. Source: Mergermarket Group Intelligence
Duff & Phelps Home Furnishings Industry Insights | Fall/Winter 2017
Capital Markets Industry Insights | Q1 2016
Board Advisor Sell-Side Advisor Board Advisor Sell-Side Advisor Sell-Side Advisor
Page 13
Duff &
Duff & Phelps
Phelps Home
Home Furnishings
Furnishings Industry
Industry Insights
Insights || Fall/Winter
Fall/Winter 2017
2017
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Joshua Benn Duff & Phelps
Global Head of Consumer Corporate Finance
New York
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