A CA DEM Y

PRINCIPLES OF
GLOBAL MACRO
GLOBAL ASSET
ALLOCATION
GEOPOLITICS
& INVESTING
BESPOKE
BCA ACADEMY
academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com
 A C AD E MY

BCA ACADEMY SEMINAR

PRINCIPLES OF GLOBAL MACRO
Course Overview
Macro directly impacts all financial
assets. Yet the various relationships
between the economy and markets
are often overlooked or misunderstood
by investors and this leads to an
increased risk of factors undermining
portfolio returns.
The BCA Academy focuses on
teaching the analytical methods and
investment strategies developed at
BCA Research over the past 65 years
for macroeconomics, sector analysis
and quantitative modelling. BCA is a
leading independent provider of global
investment research. Participants of
our courses learn techniques that
will enable them to interpret data and
important economic developments
from the perspective of an investment
professional.
In addition to learning how to read
major economic trends, students of our
courses also explore how movements
in certain assets can influence returns
in other financial assets. Participants
will look at important and interesting
questions, such as why a strong
currency implies lower bond yields,
and how lower interest rates can
boost equity multiples. Our courses
teach simple and accessible methods
that are critical to understanding how
markets work.
Course Description
The first day of this course emphasizes
the fundamental macroeconomic
concepts that drive financial markets.
Students will begin by learning how
to assess whether the economy is
operating above or below trend;
a critical question for both the
macro outlook and financial asset
performance. A thorough examination
of debt and credit will follow, since
these factors are often described as
the “lifeblood” of an economy. Lastly,
the instructors will consider how
policy can impact both the economy
and markets, as well as how investors
can gauge the durability of certain
fiscal and monetary policies.
On the second day, students will learn
BCA Research’s time-tested analytical
framework to examine the three major
financial markets: currencies, fixed-
income, and equities. Valuations,
liquidity, and momentum strategies
will be applied to each of these
markets, including real-time examples
that demonstrate the value of this
multi‑faceted approach.
Case studies will be used during
the two-day session to ensure that
participants are effectively learning
how to apply the various concepts to
real situations. The final session will
conclude with a look at the bull market
in bonds and stocks from the early
1980s, in addition to a general market
overview from the course instructors.

At the end of the course you have a very good idea of macroeconomics complexities and potential
pitfalls, the right way of looking at markets, the right variables to look at macroeconomics research.
– Jean Pierre Lacombe, Chief Global Markets & Research IFC at World Bank

Great content and material. Did an excellent job in using recent macro events to understand
market and economic implications.
– Past Principles of Global Macro Seminar Attendee

CFA Institute members that attend a BCA Academy Seminar can claim 16 CE credits for each course.

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 1

PRINCIPLES OF GLOBAL MACRO

Course Highlights Include: Who Should Attend? Locations & Dates

• How to evaluate an economy This course is ideally suited for:
using a macro framework HONG KONG, HONG KONG
• Investors who need to understand March 11-12, 2019
• The importance of business cycle macro and policy trends to invest SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
dynamics or communicate effectively March 18-19, 2019

• Why debt is important, what is the • Buy-side research, portfolio NEW YORK, UNITED STATES
May 6-7, 2019
debt supercycle, and how does it management, and quantitative
impact the components of growth investment professionals LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM
June 3-4, 2019
• What factors most influence fiscal • Sell-side equity, fixed income,
and monetary policy and bond sales and research
• Dissecting the relationship be- professionals
2016-2018 CLASS PROFILE
tween policy and growth • Family office investors, pri-
• The fundamental drivers of the vate-banking professionals, and
major risk asset classes investment advisors OTHER
(26%)

• Practical applications in FX, bond, • Junior-to-mid level asset alloca- ANALYST

(50%)
HEAD/

and equity markets tors, and equity and fixed income DIRECTOR
(23%)

strategists CEO 
• Understanding the feedback PORTFOLIO 
MANAGER CIO
(7%)

loops that link the economy, (34%) (18%)

policy, and financial assets

Great pace, engaging, structured, kept us interested and alert. The depth of analysis and
simplicity of explanations is just right for this course.
– Past Principles of Global Macro Seminar Attendee

Great refresher and extremely practical course covering everything that matters for
understanding markets and macro.
– Suhaib Jamjoom, Portfolio Manager at Passport Capital

Delegates increased their understanding of macro by 25% after taking the course
TRAINERS GAVE HOW LIKELY IS IT
LEVEL OF AN ORGANIZED THAT YOU WOULD
UNDERSTANDING HOW WOULD YOU HOW DO YOU AND WELL- RECOMMEND THE HOW DO YOU
BEFORE THE RATE THE COURSE RATE THE PREPARED COURSE TO A RATE ON-SITE
COURSE OVERALL? INSTRUCTORS? PRESENTATION COLLEAGUE? SERVICE?

6.41 7.82 8.51 9.37 9.14 9.02 9.12 8.49 8.43 8.07 8.84 8.77

LEVEL OF TRAINERS TRAINERS HOW DO YOU PLEASE RATE THE HOW DO YOU
UNDERSTANDING DEMONSTRATED ENCOURAGED RATE THE BCA COURSE MATERIALS RATE BCA
AFTER THE PROFESSIONAL PARTICIPATION ACADEMY (NOTES, VISUAL AIDS, ACADEMY
COURSE CREDIBILITY AND COVERED PRE-COURSE CASE STUDIES) CUSTOMER
REGARDING THE THE SUBJECT SERVICE? SERVICE
SUBJECT MATTER THOROUGHLY OVERALL?

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 2


DAY 1 SEMINAR AGENDA
8.00 - 8.45 Session 1:1 MACRO MAP
CASE STUDY 1: Fed Feedback Loop
»» U.S. monetary policy, domestic growth, financial
markets, and global market feedback loops
CASE STUDY 2: Euro Area Since 1989
»» EMU monetary policy before and after the euro
area crisis, and implications for markets
8.45 - 9.15 Session 1:2 SECULAR GROWTH DRIVERS
»» Labor Force participation rates, and drivers of
productivity growth
9.15 - 9.30 Session 1:3 ECONOMIC SLACK
»» Output gaps, growth, and inflation; cyclical
sectors of the economy and rates
9.30 – 9.45 BREAK
9.45 - 10.15 Session 1:4 BANKING AND DEBT
»» Understanding the role of banking in the economy
»» Debt accumulation; debt sustainability; debt
reduction
10.15 - 10.45 Session 1:5 HOUSEHOLD SECTOR
»» Labor market conditions, productivity growth,
income growth, slack, and recession
»» Drivers of consumption: (disposable) income,
wealth effect, saving rate, confidence
10.45 - 11.45 Session 1:6 CORPORATE SECTOR
»» Business investment and the business cycle;
drivers of corporate revenue and profits
CASE STUDY 3: Boom-Bust Cycles
»» Fed policy and the next bubble and how to track
its vulnerability (EM, Dollar-bloc housing, etc.)
11.45 - 12.45 LUNCH
12.45 - 13.15 Session 1:7 EXTERNAL SECTOR
»» Drivers of the current account and capital
account
CASE STUDY 4: EM Bull Market
»» Origins of the crisis, depth and breadth of crisis
and recovery, implications for risk assets
Additional Material: Participants will receive reading materials that will supplement the in-class learning experience. Included in this
package will be various case studies as well as seminal reports written by BCA Research over the past several decades.
academy@bcaresearch.com
PRINCIPLES OF GLOBAL MACRO
7.45 REGISTRATION
13.15 - 13.45 Session 1:8 INFLATION
»» Types of inflation (monetarist, cost-push,
demand-pull); structural drivers of inflation
CASE STUDY 5: Secular Stagnation
»» Drivers of secular stagnation; implications for
monetary policy, growth, and financial markets
13.45 - 14.45 Session 1:9 MONETARY POLICY
»» Central bank mandates, credibility, and
inflation
»» IS/LM framework (in an open and closed
economy)
14.45 - 15.00 BREAK
15.00 - 15.45 Session 1:10 A METHOD FOR POLITICS
»» Constraints-based methodology versus
policymaker preferences
»» Median voter theory, political data,
forecasting events and understanding trends
15.45 - 16.15 Session 1:11 GEOPOLITICS
»» Multipolarity and investing, and the apex of
globalization
CASE STUDY 6: Political Constraints
In Major Economies
»» Geopolitical, institutional, and political
constraints facing policymakers
16.15 - 16.45 Session 1:12 FISCAL POLICY
»» Politics and fiscal policy (voters rarely vote for
austerity); economic and fiscal policy
CASE STUDY 7 : U.S. Fiscal Policy
Since The GFC
16.45 - 17.15 Session 1:13 STRUCTURAL REFORM
»» Structural reforms and growth, politics, and
financial market riot points
CASE STUDY 8: Outlook For
Chinese Reforms
»» Long-term Chinese growth potential and
political constraints
17.15 - 17.30 Session 1:14 DAILY WRAP UP
+1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 3
PRINCIPLES OF GLOBAL MACRO
DAY 2 SEMINAR AGENDA
8.00 - 9.00 Session 2:1 FOMC GROUP EXERCISE
»» Assessment of U.S. economic outlook
»» Formulate monetary policy strategy according
to economic and inflation assessment
FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND COMMODITIES
9.00 - 9.30 Session 2:2 FX REGIMES
»» FX regime types and the “Impossible Trinity”
»» Stability of the international monetary regime
9.30 - 10.00 Session 2:3 FX VALUATIONS
»» PPP models, effective exchange rates,
advanced FX valuations techniques
10.00 - 10.15 BREAK
10.15 - 10.30 Session 2:4 DRIVERS OF FX MARKETS
»» Current account, basic balance of payments,
international investment position
»» TOT shocks, rate differentials, carry versus funding
10.30 - 10.45 Session 2:5 U.S. DOLLAR
»» Role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy
and global financial markets
10.45 - 11.15 Session 2:6 COMMODITIES
»» Technology, OPEC, supply-side dynamics
»» Forecasting demand for commodities
CASE STUDY 1: U.S. Dollar Bull Markets
»» Dollar bull markets in the 80s, 90s, and today
FIXED INCOME
11.15 - 11.45 Session 3:1 REAL RATES
»» Real interest rates, money demand, and growth
»» Real rates and the Fed’s reaction function
11.45 - 12.00 Session 3:2 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
»» Adaptive inflation expectations, the zero-lower
bound, survey-based measures
12.00 - 13.00 LUNCH
13.00 - 13.15 Session 3:2 INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
CASE STUDY 2: Secular Trends In Inflation
academy@bcaresearch.com
»» U.S. inflation since the 1960s (monetarist,
cost-push, and demand-pull)
13.15 - 13.30 Session 3:3 TERM PREMIUM
»» Role of demographics, monetary policy
strategy, savings glut, and hedging
13.30 - 13.45 Session 3:4 BOND YIELDS AND DEBT
»» Government bond yields and debt burdens,
current account, government revenue
13.45 - 14.00 Session 3:5 YIELD CURVE
»» Yield curve dynamics during the cycle;
signaling economic health; liquidity proxy
14.00 - 14.15 Session 3:6 CORPORATE CREDIT
»» Spread determinants, corporate defaults,
corporate health
14.15 - 14.30 BREAK
»» Drivers of secular stagnation; supply-side
versus demand-side stagnation
»» Implications for monetary policy, politics,
growth, and financial markets
14.30 - 14.45 Session 4:1 DRIVERS OF EQUITY PRICES
»» Cash flow growth, risk appetite, monetary
policy
14.45 - 15.15 Session 4:2 EQUITY VALUATION
»» Valuation, ERP, bond yields, and real rates
»» Adjusting for sector composition, country
effects versus sector effects
15.15 - 16.00 Session 4:3 SALES AND PROFITS
»» Sales growth, profit margins, and buybacks
16.00 - 16.30 Session 4:4 BEAR MARKETS & RECESSION
»» Bear markets, drawdowns, asset imbalances
»» Recession, yield curve, and monetary
conditions
16.30 - 16.45 Session 4:5 KNOW YOUR MARKET
»» Dollar, China, and EM
16.45 - 17.30 Session 4:6 DAILY WRAP-UP AND
SUMMARY
CASE STUDY 3: S&P 500 Outlook
+1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 4
 PRINCIPLES OF GLOBAL MACRO

INSTRUCTORS
JIM MYLONAS
Global Macro Strategist
Jim Mylonas is a Global Strategist at BCA Research and Chief Strategist of the Daily Insights service.
He is also the Co-Chair of the BCA Investment Conference. Since 2011, Jim has worked with the Global
Investment Strategy team, helped develop the Geopolitical Strategy product, and launched the BCA
Academy. As the Lead Instructor of the Academy, he has taught the Principles course to over 500 BCA
clients across the world. Previously, Mr. Mylonas worked for both the U.S. and Canadian governments.
He has been quoted in The New York Times and other major publications, and has published articles
in peer reviewed academic journals. Jim is an expert in global macro, geopolitics, and U.S. politics.
He holds an honors BA in economics and political science from the University of Toronto and an MA in
international affairs from Carleton University.

MATHIEU SAVARY
Chief Foreign Exchange Strategist
Mathieu Savary joined BCA Research in 2004 and is currently BCA’s Vice President, Foreign
Exchange Strategy. During his tenure at BCA, he has served as Senior Editor of the Global Investment
Strategy service, as well as Research Assistant of the European Investment Strategy service.
Furthermore, Mathieu has launched the BCA Top Trades service. Finally, he has been one of the principal
developers and is a leader of BCA’s “Principles Of Macroeconomics And Impact On Capital Markets”
seminar, which is offered to investors around the globe. Previously in his career, Mathieu held the
position of Global Macro Research Analyst with Brandywine Global Investment Management. Mathieu
has a BCom in Finance and Economics from McGill University, and holds the CFA designation.

The last two days I really learned a lot of things from Mathieu and Jim…[They] helped me get
a deeper understanding of the financial system in the last 200 years.
– Cai Qing, Asset Allocation Analyst at China Investment Corporation

Extremely knowledgeable and prepared for any question.

– Past Principles of Global Macro Seminar Attendee

Excellent + organized communicators, and expressed deep knowledge of content.

– Past Principles of Global Macro Seminar Attendee

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 5

 A C AD E MY

BCA ACADEMY SEMINAR

GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION
Course Overview
Academic research finds that markets
are, to use Paul Samuelson’s phrase,
“micro efficient but macro inefficient.”
But CIOs, asset allocators, and invest-
ment professionals often struggle to
find a practical way to construct op-
timal multi-asset portfolios. Methods
and strategies to harvest alpha from
these macro inefficiencies is what
the BCA Academy Asset Allocation
course teaches delegates. Identifying
portfolio objectives is an important
starting point for successful asset
allocation strategies. Yet properly
matching the macro environment with
the appropriate asset allocation strat-
egies is often the most challenging
part of the investment process. This
course will help delegates become
more effective at interpreting how
our Global Asset Allocation team
sees the world; an important input
given the increasingly complex macro
environment. Delegates will also get
a better understanding of how to
develop and execute asset allocation
strategies, as well as a firmer grasp on
how investors should be positioned
given prevailing market conditions.
Course Description
As the Chief Strategist of BCA’s Asset
Allocation team, Garry Evans brings
a wealth of experience, insight, and
time-tested methods on how investors
should navigate markets from an
allocation perspective. Important
questions that will be examined during
the Asset Allocation course include:
assessing indicators that shed light on
where we are in the cycle, discussing
the behavior of different assets and
factor tilts during various phases of the
cycle, and learning how to incorporate
quant models into the investment
process. Among many others.
Case studies and a mock investment
committee exercise will put the
concepts discussed during the course
to work. Looking at the behavior of the
major asset classes around recessions
will also help investors navigate the
late innings of the current cycle. Our
objective is for delegates to leave the
course with a better understanding
of asset allocation and actionable
investment strategies for the current
and future environments.

Instructor
Garry Evans joined BCA Research in August 2015 and is currently BCA’s Senior Vice President, Global
Asset Allocation. He was previously Managing Director and Global Head of Equity Strategy at HSBC,
based in Hong Kong. During 16 years at HSBC, Garry also worked as Japan Strategist, Asia-Pacific
Strategist, and Head of Research in both Tokyo and Hong Kong. Garry started his career at Euromoney
Institutional Investor (BCA’s parent company) and was Editor of Euromoney Magazine from 1990 to
1998. He has an MA in Asian Studies from Cambridge University, and undertook postgraduate studies
in economics at Kyoto University in Japan.

Garry broke down a complex approach to investing and made it very digestible and easy to
understand.
– Past Global Asset Allocation Seminar Attendee

Garry was able to present complex ideas into simple delivery yet with a concise presentation.
Would love to have him back for future sessions.
– Past Global Asset Allocation Seminar Attendee

CFA Institute members that attend the Academy can claim 8 CE credits for each course.

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 6

 GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION

Course Highlights: Who Should Attend? Locations & Dates

Learning Objectives: This course is ideally suited for: LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM
• Long-term investment returns • Senior investment professionals April 1, 2019

• Tactical tilts and asset allocation that are involved in asset allocation
TORONTO, CANADA
• Harvesting risk premiums discussions and decisions May 13, 2019

• Family office investors, private-

Case Studies:
banking relationship managers,
• Great Financial Crisis and investment advisors
• TMT Bubble
• Stagflation • Mid-level buy-side research, port-
• Investment Committee Exercise folio management, and quantitative
investment professionals
Topics Covered:
• Factor tilts and currency hedging
• Alternative assets
• Regime investing
• Long-term themes
• Safe haven assets and inflation
hedge

Very interesting but also very useful. Will improve my client dialogue.
– Past Global Asset Allocation Seminar Attendee

Very informative and excellent content. Understanding the macro signals in more detail as
well as feedback loops was well communicated.
– Past Global Asset Allocation Seminar Attendee

Helpful to put into perspective how we think about asset allocation/portfolios.

– Past Global Asset Allocation Seminar Attendee

Delegates increased their understanding of global asset allocation by 20% after taking the course
TRAINER GAVE
LEVEL OF AN ORGANIZED PLEASE RATE THE
UNDERSTANDING HOW WOULD YOU HOW DO YOU AND WELL- COURSE MATERIALS
BEFORE THE RATE THE COURSE RATE THE PREPARED (NOTES, VISUAL AIDS,
COURSE OVERALL? INSTRUCTOR? PRESENTATION CASE STUDIES)

7.15 8.51 8.84 9.42 9.30 9.17 9.49 8.92 8.72 8.58

LEVEL OF TRAINERS TRAINER HOW LIKELY IS IT THE TRAINER

UNDERSTANDING DEMONSTRATED ENCOURAGED THAT YOU WOULD CHECKED
AFTER THE PROFESSIONAL PARTICIPATION RECOMMEND THE PARTICIPANTS’ LEVEL
COURSE CREDIBILITY AND COVERED COURSE TO A OF COMPREHENSION
REGARDING THE THE SUBJECT COLLEAGUE? AND COVERED
SUBJECT MATTER THOROUGHLY THE SUBJECT AT A
CORRECT PACE

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 7

GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION

SEMINAR AGENDA 7.45 REGISTRATION

8.00 - 8.15 Session 1: INTRODUCTION 12.30 - 13.30 LUNCH

»» Strategic versus Tactical
13.30 - 14.30 Session 5:
»» The BCA Global Asset Allocation Service approach
INVESTMENT COMMITTEE MEETING
8.15 - 9.45 Session 2: THE BASICS
14.30 - 15.15 Session 6: LONG-TERM THEMES
CASE STUDY 1: Global Financial Crisis
»» Debt supercycle
»» What is asset allocation? »» Technology cycles
»» Where are we in the cycle? »» Geopolitical multipolarity
CASE STUDY 2: TMT Bubble »» Mal-distribution of income

»» Do valuations matter? 15.15 - 15.30 BREAK

»» Safe havens
»» Inflation hedges 15.30 - 16.00 Session 7: FACTORS/EXOTIC BETA
»» Factor investing
CASE STUDY 3: Stagflation
»» Small cap ”outperformance”
9.45 – 10.00 BREAK »» Incorporating factors into the investment
process
10.00 - 11.15 Session 3: MEAN VARIANCE OPTIMIZERS »» The role of quants models
»» The uses and abuses of MVOs 16.00 - 16.30 Session 8: CURRENCY HEDGING
»» Capital market assumptions »» Should you hedge the FX exposure of
»» Volatility and correlation your overseas equity holdings?
»» Simple versus dynamic hedging models
11.15 - 11.30 BREAK
»» What about foreign bonds?
11.30 - 12.30 Session 4: ALTERNATIVES 16.30 - 17.00 Session 9: IMPLEMENTATION
»» Return characteristics of alts »» Rebalancing
»» Problems »» Organizational alpha
»» Hedge funds
»» Real Estate
»» Commodities
»» Cat Bonds

Additional Material: Participants will receive reading materials that will supplement the in-class learning experience. Included in this
package will be various case studies as well as seminal reports written by BCA Research over the past several decades.

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 8


BCA ACADEMY SEMINAR
GEOPOLITICS & INVESTING
Course Overview
Geopolitics has become a central
feature of the investment landscape.
Are trade wars a fundamental threat to
investors? Will the euro area survive?
What do U.S. political polarization and
income inequality mean for markets
and policy? How will the rise of China
impact geopolitical and economic
risks? How will the generational
divide between millennials and baby
boomers influence policy?
These are all questions that will
have a significant impact on investor
portfolios. But very few investors
have been trained in political analysis.
Geopolitical risk has been brushed
aside for many years as something
that cannot be forecasted and
therefore should only be considered
post-facto in portfolio construction.
This outdated view will prove to be
costly for many.
Our Geopolitics & Investing seminar
gives market participants the tools
and empirical lessons needed to
navigate increasing political and
geopolitical risks. The objective of
the course is to help investors add
structured political analysis into their
decision-making process, making
them better at avoiding risk and
capturing opportunity.
academy@bcaresearch.com
A C AD E MY
Course Description Locations & Dates
During this one-day seminar, attendees
will lear n from our top-ranked LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM
April 2, 2019
geopolitical analysts, including our
Chief Geopolitical Strategist – Marko
WASHINGTON, UNITED STATES
Papic. Some important parts of the June 10, 2019
session include:
»» Our constraints-based method
that underpins any successful
geopolitical analysis
»» Best practices for reading the
news and avoiding media biases
»» Game theory and its application
to markets
»» How to generate “geopolitical
alpha”
»» How to effectively use data when
making political assessments
This is not a course in political science We look forward to seeing
theory. This seminar is about learning you at this incredibly
how to apply fundamental concepts
important journey into the
and methods to markets. Assessing
world of political analysis.
the current geopolitical and political
environment is an important part of
this seminar. Delegates will leave
the session with a much better
understanding of the main political
questions facing investors today.
The seminar will also include two
very topical and market-relevant
“war games.” These exciting group
exercises will bring together the
methods, history, and best practices
introduced during the course.
CFA Institute members that attend the Academy can claim 8 CE credits for each course.
+1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 9
GEOPOLITICS & INVESTING

Course Highlights: Who Should Attend?

Learning Objectives:
• Learn how to read the news
• Forecast policymaker behavior
• Identify long-term geopolitical
risks and opportunities
• Understand political and institu-
tional constraints on policymakers
• Understand balance of power
dynamics
• Connect geopolitics to financial
markets
• Identify paradigm shifts
Topics Covered:
• A method for political analysis
• Theories from political science
• International relations theory
• Secular U.S.-China tensions
• Political constraints in G3
• The politics of fiscal policy
• Structural reforms - why, when,
and how they happen
• Sources of populism and
impact on growth and markets
• Income and wealth inequality
• Apex of globalization
This course is ideally suited for:
• Senior-level investors focused on
global markets and various asset
classes
• Family office investors, pri-
vate-banking professionals, and
investment advisors
• Mid-level buy-side research and
portfolio management professionals
• Sell-side equity, fixed income,
and bond sales and research
professionals
• Economists and quantitative
investment professionals

Are You Prepared For Multipolarity?!

NATIONAL CAPABILITY AND GEOPOLITICAL POWER:
CHINA EMU-5
U.S. INDIA
.6 JAPAN U.K. .6
RUSSIA

.5 .5

WWI

.4 .4

WWII
.3 .3
?

.2 .2

.1 .1

© BCA Research 2019

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
NOTE: THE SERIES SHOWS THE NATIONAL CAPABILITY INDEX UNTIL 1960 AND BCA'S GEOPOLITICAL POWER INDEX FROM 1960 TO PRESENT.

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 10


SEMINAR AGENDA
8.00 - 9.00 Session 1: CONSTRAINTS VERSUS
PREFERENCES
»» Why focus on constraints rather than
preferences: the theory
»» What are constraints?
• Political: the voters, interest groups, media
• Constitutional: legislative and legal rules
• Financial: the bond market, the
impossible trinity, equity prices
• Economic: growth, unemployment, cycle,
trade dependency
• Military: naval assets, air force assets,
military budget
• Immutable: geography, demographics
9.00 - 10.00 Session 2: CONSTRAINTS IN ACTION
»» Game theory: constraints in action
• Game theory helps investors forecast the
interplay of multiple actors
»» Hypothesis testing: Generate market-relevant
political hypotheses to steer analysis
»» Why preferences (and intelligence gathering)
don’t work
10.00 - 10.15 BREAK
10.15 - 11.15 Session 3: WHAT TO READ, AND HOW
»» Open source: best sources of information and
how to process that content
»» Biases: Identify media biases and avoid
analysis pitfalls in political assessments
»» Introduce the theme of why media is failing
and how it is failing
»» Respective the narrative, don’t try to outsmart
it (i.e., Brazil in 2017)
Additional Material: Participants will receive reading materials that will supplement the in-class learning experience. Included in this
package will be various case studies as well as seminal reports written by BCA Research over the past several decades.
academy@bcaresearch.com
GEOPOLITICS & INVESTING
7.45 REGISTRATION
11.15 - 12.30 Session 4: GENERATING GEOPOLITICAL ALPHA
»» Identify what matters: start with valuations –
is there a value trap?
»» Paradigm shifts: identify secular trends based
on objective/material constraints
»» Conducting A Net assessments
»» Markets as a gauge: assets are always pricing
geopolitics, bet against market, not event
»» Neutrality of risk: understand when political
analysis reveals investment opportunities
»» The Calendar: why it matters and how to
construct it
12.30 - 13.30 LUNCH
13.30 - 14.30 Session 5: DATA & INDICATORS
»» Geopolitical Power Index: how it is structured,
and why it matters
»» Value, view, and preference surveys
»» World Bank governance indicators
»» Gallup and Pew Research polling
»» How to use electoral data
»» Additional data: Uncertainty Index, Angus
Madison, Polity IV
14.30 - 14.45 BREAK
14.45 - 16.00 Session 6: BIG PICTURE THEMES
»» Multipolarity: understand historical geopolitical
relationships to forecast state behavior
»» Apex of globalization and populism
»» Generational Warfare
16.00 - 17.00 WAR GAME (Italy And Euro Area)
»» Italian populists win a landslide election and
decide to take Italy out of the euro
17.00 - 17.30 SUMMARY AND FINAL THOUGHTS
+1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 11
GEOPOLITICS & INVESTING

INSTRUCTORS
MARKO PAPIC
Chief Geopolitical Strategist
Marko Papic joined BCA Research in September 2011 and is currently BCA’s Chief Geopolitical Strat-
egist. Marko launched our Geopolitical service in March 2012, it is a service that blends BCA’s macro-
economic research with our geopolitical methodology and analysis. Prior to joining BCA, Marko was
a Senior Analyst for STRATFOR, a premier global intelligence agency where he contributed to the
firm’s global geopolitical strategy as well as its analyst recruitment and training program. Marko is a
sought-after geopolitical strategist, having been interviewed by numerous media organizations – in-
cluding The New York Times, CNN, BBC, CNBC, Al Jazeera, Associated Press, etc. Before joining BCA,
he also helped create the Center for European Union Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. Marko
holds graduate degrees from the University of Texas at Austin and the University of British Columbia,
and has lived in 8 countries on 3 continents.

MATT GERTKEN
Senior Geopolitical Strategist
Matt Gertken joined BCA in 2015. As Vice President of BCA’s Geopolitical Strategy, he covers political
and policy issues in developed and emerging markets, including the U.S., China, and the rest of Asia.
Before joining BCA, he worked as a Senior Analyst at Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor), where he
provided geopolitical analysis and political risk consulting. He frequently appears in international news
media, including CBC, CNBC Asia, Bloomberg TV, and Fox Business News. He comes from a back-
ground in academics and publishing, and holds advanced degrees from the University of Cambridge
and University of Texas at Austin.

JIM MYLONAS
Global Macro Strategist
Jim Mylonas is a Global Strategist at BCA Research and Chief Strategist of the Daily Insights service.
He is also the Co-Chair of the BCA Investment Conference. Since 2011, Jim has worked with the Global
Investment Strategy team, helped develop the Geopolitical Strategy product, and launched the BCA
Academy. As the Lead Instructor of the Academy, he has taught the Principles course to over 500 BCA
clients across the world. Previously, Mr. Mylonas worked for both the U.S. and Canadian governments.
He has been quoted in The New York Times and other major publications, and has published articles
in peer reviewed academic journals. Jim is an expert in global macro, geopolitics, and U.S. politics.
He holds an honors BA in economics and political science from the University of Toronto and an MA in
international affairs from Carleton University.

academy@bcaresearch.com +1.800.724.2942 academy.bcaresearch.com 12

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