Assignment 2 Part A - ANOVA

The data is given as:

Manager Sales_volume

1 Harrison 7.2

2 Harrison 6.4

3 Harrison 10.1

4 Harrison 11.0

5 Harrison 9.9

6 Harrison 10.6

7 Dale 8.8

8 Dale 10.7

9 Dale 11.1

10 Dale 9.8

11 Stevenson 6.9

12 Stevenson 8.7

13 Stevenson 10.5

14 Stevenson 11.4

We do a one way ANOVA for testing of the null hypothesis:

Against the alternative hypothesis:

HA: At least one inequality in H0

As p-value = P(Fcal > 0.3359) = 0.722 > 0.01, we fail to reject the null at 1% level of significance
and conclude that there is no significant difference among the sales volumes among the branches
managed by the 3 managers.

Assignment 2 Part B – Regression

(a)

The shape more or less suggests that the model may be exponential or quadratic.
(b)
I. Linear

II. Quadratic
III. Third degree polynomial

IV. Exponential
V. Logarithmic

VI. Power
(c) The best model is the exponential model because the R2 value for this model is closest to 1.
(d) For exponential model the value of R2 is 0.875 hence, 87.5 % of the variation in the number
of employees is explained by this regression model.
(e) x = 15

Hence, if the company receives 15 pounds of mail, 9 employees should be assigned mail
duty.
 Assignment 2 Part C – Time Series and Non-Parametric Tests
(a) 3 day moving average analysis is the average of three sequential observations

(b) 4 day moving average analysis is the average of three sequential observation

(c) 3 day weighted moving average analysis with weights w1=0.2, w2=0.3 and w3=0.5 with w1
on the oldest data

(d) Exponential smoothing analysis with a = 0.3

Rods 3 day 4 day 3 day

Day sold MA MA WMA Exponential

1 60 #N/A #N/A 60

2 70 #N/A #N/A 67

3 110 80 #N/A 88 97.10

4 80 86.66667 80 87 85.13

5 70 86.66667 82.5 81 74.54

6 85 78.33333 86.25 79.5 81.86

7 115 90 87.5 97 105.06

8 105 101.6667 93.75 104 105.02

9 65 95 92.5 87 77.01

10 75 81.66667 90 78 75.60

11 95 78.33333 85 83 89.18
12 85 85 80 86 86.25
(e) Exponential smoothing analysis with a = 0.3 provides a better fit of the data