Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx
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Weather and Climate Extremes
journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/wace
Smallholder farmers’ awareness and perceptions of climate change in
Adama district, central rift valley of Ethiopia
Hurgesa Hundera a, *, Sylvester Mpandeli b, c, Amare Bantider d
a
Arsi University and University of South Africa, Ethiopia
b
Water Utilization in Agriculture: Water Research Commission, Bloukraans Building, Lynnwood Bridge, Pretoria, South Africa
c
University of South Africa, Department of Environmental Sciences, Florida Campus, South Africa
d
Addis Ababa University, College of Development Studies (Center for Food Security Studies), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
1. Introduction
One of the most vital determinants of livelihoods and survival for
human kind is climatic nature. According to the existing literatures, the
reality of climate change is no longer an abstract as its impacts are being
experienced across the globe with variation in magnitude and extent of
effects based the available resources (Munang et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014b;
Eshetu et al., 2016). Its impacts are felt already through change in
average temperature, rainfall, moisture in the air, vegetation and in­
creases in the frequency of droughts (Neelin, 2011; Pelling, 2011). With
exception of central part of Africa where the data is insufficient to draw
conclusion, it is very likely that over large areas of this continent the
mean annual temperature has increased over the last century (IPCC,
2014a) and mainly due to anthropogenic activities (Stott et al., 2011). It
has also been emphasized that countries like Ethiopia, South Sudan,
Uganda and Kenya have experienced upward trends in seasonal mean
temperature over the past years (Funk et al., 2012). In Ethiopia, the
temperature has been rising yearly at the rate of 0.2 � C over the last five
decades (Legesse et al., 2013). IPCC (2014a) has also projected that the
Earth’s temperature will increase between 1.5 � C and 5.8 � C by 2100.
However, unlike the clear temperature trend, it is difficult to put the
clear trend for the rainfall occurrences (IPCC, 2014b) as there are var­
iations in different regions.
Literatures show that the change in climate and weather results into
disturbances of biological actions and ecosystems through shorter sea­
sons of rainfalls, floods, droughts and low crop productivity (Karekezi
et al., 2009; IPCC, 2014b) thereby aggravating the occurrences of other
weather and climate extremes. It has been projected that crop yield in
Africa may fall by 10–20% by 2050 or even up to 50% associated to
climate change impacts (Thornton et al., 2006), particularly because
performances of African agriculture is largely dependent on the healthy
functioning of weather and climate. Thus, available evidences point out
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: hurgesa@gmail.com (H. Hundera).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100230
Received 7 September 2018; Received in revised form 29 June 2019; Accepted 20 September 2019
2212-0947/© 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Please cite this article as: Hurgesa Hundera, Weather and Climate Extremes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100230
that rain dependent agriculture is very much sensitive to weather and
climate extremes such as droughts, floods and severe storms (Adger
et al., 2003; Demeke et al., 2012), which may results in crossing critical
thresholds. Above all, any negative change to agricultural sector poses a
significant threats and uncertainties to the existence of smallholder
farmers as they have limited options (Morton, 2007; Nwaiwu et al.,
2014).
Previous assessments have revealed that smallholder farmers are
consistently facing the prospects of tragic crop collapses, reduced agri­
cultural productivity, increased hunger, malnutrition and diseases and
reduced income as a result of impacts of climate and weather extremes
(Zoellick, 2009; Moyo et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014b). This implies that
smallholder farmers are largely vulnerable to the extremes of climate
and weather events due to the fact that their livelihoods are purely de­
pends on rain fed agriculture on small farmlands using family labor and
little modern inputs. In this context, smallholder farmers are largely
vulnerable and the affected part of the communities.
Regarding the awareness and perception of smallholder farmers
about climate change, there were mixed evidences. Study carried out in
Rumphi district, northern Malawi established that though the awareness
of the smallholder farmers about climate change have relatively
increased, the meaning and understanding they have about climate
change were still not in line with scientific concept of climate change
(Munthali et al., 2016). Most farmers associated climate change events
to only rainfall patterns as they frequently experienced the change of
rainfall occurrences in their agricultural production systems. The result
of the study among rural farmers of Imo state, Nigeria also revealed that
the knowledge of the farmers about climate change was more local
based instead of its scientific concept (Ozor et al., 2015). According to
the authors, the limited understanding of climate change was largely
attributed to insufficient access to information about climate change.
Ishaya and Abaje (2008) also reported that farmers of Jema, Nigeria
H. Hundera et al.
were generally characterized by lack of awareness and knowledge about
climate change. Even, according to Ochieng and James (2013) primary
school teachers in Kisumu Municipality, Kenya had significant gaps in
climate change awareness thought it was not considerably low. The
source furthermore revealed that awareness creation about climate
change was inescapable by developing climate change awareness policy.
With the objective of exploring farmers’ perceptions regarding long
term changes in climatic variables and the associated effects on farming,
Ndamani and Watanabe (2015) carried out study in Ghana. They used
semi structured questionnaires and focus group discussions on randomly
selected 100 households. The finding of the study indicated that 87% of
respondents perceived a decrease in rainfall amount while 82%
perceived an increase in temperature over the past 10 years. Deressa
et al. (2009) also revealed that the majority of the farmers residing in
Blue Nile of Ethiopia had awareness about climate change. It has also
been reported that most of the farmers have perceived the changing
climate by observing rainfall and temperature trend of their area
(Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Hadgu et al., 2014). In these
regards, however, some generalizations about the smallholder farmers’
perception and awareness about climate were largely characterized by
opinion with no or little scientific supports. The nature of awareness and
perception of the rural farming communities about the current condi­
tions of climate change influences the way they react to the climate
change (Adger et al., 2009). In this case, the negative impacts of climate
change could considerable affect the crop production as a result of lack
of awareness and misconception.
Despite the considerable number of studies that have been conducted
on various natures of climate change in various countries and levels
(Deressa et al., 2011; Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Ochieng and
James, 2013; Hadgu et al., 2014; Ndamani and Watanabe, 2015; Ozor
et al., 2015; Munthali et al., 2016), limited study has been conducted so
Fig. 1. Map of Adama district.
Source: Developed by the researchers based on EthioGIS data using ArcMap 10.3.
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Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx
far in Adama district, regarding awareness and perception of small­
holder farmers about climate change. Most of the existing studies also
did not look into the nature of climate change as perceived by the
smallholder farmers. In addition, Adger et al. (2009) argue that
awareness and perception of the rural farming communities about
climate change influences the way they react to the climate change. This
implies that there is a need to study awareness and perception of
smallholder farmers about climate change since it is a precondition to
apply methods of addressing climate change. Moreover, in Adama dis­
trict (study area), where natural rainfall based agriculture is dominant
means of livelihoods and the greater proportions of the farmers are
smallholder, studying awareness and perception of smallholder farmers
about climate change is vital for developing policies and programs that
address climate and weather extremes. In views of the above conditions,
therefore, this study was designed to examine the awareness and
perception of rural smallholder farmers about climate change in Adama
District, Central Rift Valley Region of Ethiopia. The result of this study is
expected to initiate the discussion and information exchange among
local communities, field experts, planners, policy makers and re­
searchers to improve the level of agricultural extension and climate in­
formation services particularly for smallholder farmers residing in
remote in areas.
2. Description of study area
Adama district (Fig. 1) is bordered on the south by Arsi Zone, on the
southwest by Koka Reservior, on the west by Lome, on the north by the
Afar Region, and on the east by Boset district. It is located at about
100 km southeast of capital city of the country, Addis Ababa. The
topography is characterized by having plain, undulating land, gentle
slope, and rugged terrain land. Its average annual temperature and
H. Hundera et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 1 were contacted using questionnaires for this study. To come up with
Awareness about climate change and its concept. appropriate sample size, two stage sampling techniques were employed.
Variables and their Attributes Frequency Percent χ2 In the first stage, simple random sampling technique was employed to
identify six kebeles from the existing kebeles of the district. Then, in order
Awareness about Yes, aware about it 317 90.3 228.2a
climate change No, don’t aware about it 34 9.7 to identify the determined sample size households from the kebeles
Total 351 100 systematic random sampling technique was used. For identification of
The level of Little about it 67 21.1 35.0a participants in focus group discussions and key informant interviews,
awareness about More about it 152 48 purposive sampling was applied based on their relevance to climate
climate change Detail about it 98 30.9
Awareness about Short term fluctuations 57 18 66.6a
change. A snowball sampling technique was employed to locate poten­
concept of the of rainfall and tial participants who can provide reliable and realistic data about the
phrase climate temperature historical profile of climate change over the last three decades. This
change Drought 95 30 technique was used to mainly identify the local elders of more than 65
Deforestations 35 11
years old with a long history of stay in the study area and knowledge
Changes in the average 130 41
weather conditions over regarding climate change.
extended periods In order to analyse rainfall nature of the study area, long term
Awareness about Problem happened at 86 27.1 302.2a monthly, seasonal and annual mean of rainfall were computed from the
the spatial scale local scale daily data. Furthermore, rainfall indices such as Precipitation Concen­
of climate change Problem happened at 203 64
world level
tration Index (PCI), Coefficient of Variability (CV) and analysis of Mann
Not a problem at 8 2.5 Kendall trend test were applied in this study with intention of examining
anywhere the variability and trends of rainfall. PCI was applied in this study to
Early to recognize it as a 20 6.3 characterize the monthly rainfall concentrations at both annual and
problem
seasonal scales. The value of PCI gives a clue for the management of
a
Statistically significant at 0.01significance level Source: Compiled from field irrigation, erosion and rain fed agriculture. According to Oliver (1980),
survey result. seasonal and annual values of PCI were computed as follows:
P12
ðpiÞ2
rainfall vary between 15 and 20 � C and 700–800 mm respectively. PCIAnnual ¼ 100*�Pi¼1 �2
Geologically, the study area is dominated by the formation of Great Rift 12
i¼1 pi
Valley of the Cenozoic era. The present physiographic feature of the area
is the result of tectonic volcanic activities. Hence, the deposition of P4
ðpiÞ2
sediments largely is of fluvial and lacustrine origin found in the area. PCISeasonal ¼ 33:3*�Pi¼1 �2
4
Therefore, the main landscape in Adama and its surrounding consists of i¼1 pi
fault-controlled depressions covered with sediments and volcanic domes
Where PCI is Precipitation Concentration Index, pi is the rainfall
and cones.
amounts of ith month, Σ is summation over 12 months in case of annual
and 4 months with respect to seasonal. As per Oliver (1980), when the
3. Research methodology
value of PCI is less than 10, it reveals uniform distribution of precipi­
tation (low concentration); between 11 and 15 moderate precipitation
Data about perception of smallholder farmers about climate change
concentration; between 16 and 20 irregular distribution of precipitation
were collected using various approaches. The participants were
and greater than 20 interpreted as strong irregularity of precipitation
approached through interviews, focus group discussions, structured and
(high concentration). Coefficient of variability was calculated to mea­
semi structured household survey. In these processes, smallholder
sure the variability of rainfall and its characteristics over a period of time
farmers, agricultural extension agents, and experts were contacted.
and space. It is calculated as (Hare, 2003)
Moreover, long term rainfall and temperature records were obtained
from National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia. This further SD
CV ¼ �100
helped the researchers to analyse temperature and rainfall conditions Mean
whose occurrences and consequences are assumed to have direct man­
Where CV is Coefficient of Variability and SD is standard deviation.
ifestations to climatic pattern of the area. Data obtained from meteo­
According to Hare (2003), if the value of CV is less than 20, it shows low
rological records were examined with the perception data collected from
rainfall variability; between 20 and 30 indicates moderate rainfall
households using questionnaires and interviews which helped us to
variability and greater than 30 interpreted as high rainfall variability.
come up with profound research outputs and thoughtful
The collected field data were interpreted using descriptive statistics such
recommendations.
as frequency distribution. Chi square test was applied in order to assess
As data collection tools, close and open ended questions were pre­
the significance difference of respondent’s frequency distributions. The
pared and distributed for smallholder farmers. In this regard, Likert scale
analysis of qualitative data was carried out using case summaries and
items about indicators of perception were developed and distributed for
thematic content methods thereby categorizing into themes based on
the selected smallholder farmers. In addition to household question­
their similarities.
naires, focus group discussions were also conducted. It is an appropriate
tool for gathering impartial and non-exaggerated qualitative data from
4. Results and discussions
discussants since the members would act as checks on one another. In
doing so, focus group discussion guidelines were developed and used
4.1. Awareness about nature and concept of climate change
during discussions. Key informant interviews were finally conducted
with elder farmers, agricultural extension workers and experts. Each
As it is indicated in the Table 1, the majorities (90.3%) of the re­
interview was carried out by the researchers with the aim of making
spondents reported that they have awareness about climate change in
further investigations on the basis of the information received from the
their communities while the remaining 9.7% of them have never come
respondents.
across and aware of the phrase climate change in their local commu­
To determine the sample size, statistical formula developed by
nities. However, drawing conclusion about the level of climate change
Yemane (1967) was employed and accordingly 351 sample households
awareness based on this question only could be misleading since the

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H. Hundera et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 2 Table 3
Perception about rainfall and temperature pattern of the area. Perception of respondents about indictors of climate change.
Parameter Directions Frequency Percent χ2 Perceptual Agree Neutral Disagree Mean Score
a statements as in %
Rainfall trend Increasing 25 7.7 613.0 N % N % N %
indicators of
Decreasing 273 84.6
climate change
No change 5 1.4
I have no idea 20 6.3 Growing period 281 87.0 24 7.4 18 5.6 2.81 93.8
Temperature trend Increasing 224 69.2 403.6a has been
Decreasing 92 28.5 shortened
No change 2 0.6 Late rains for a 281 87.0 19 5.9 23 7.1 2.80 93.3
I have no idea 5 1.7 shorter period
of time
Source: Compiled from field survey result. Late rains for a 270 83.6 29 9.0 24 7.4 2.76 92.1
a
Represents statistical significance at 0.01 alpha level. longer period
time
Early rains for a 253 78.3 30 9.3 40 12.4 2.66 88.6
question is very general. For instance, according the study carried out in
shorter period
Jalingo Metropolis, Nigeria by Oruonye (2011) about 82% of the re­ of time
spondents reported that they were aware of climate change in response Early rains for a 248 76.8 14 4.3 61 18.9 2.58 86.0
to the question whether they had heard about climate change or not. longer period
However, out of the respondents who claimed aware of climate change of time
Available water 243 75.2 5 1.5 75 23.3 2.52 84.0
only 11% of them correctly stated about the nature and concept of
bodies have
climate change. been
Thus, several questions were developed and presented to those who decreased
claimed to be aware of climate change to the first question. Hence, as it Drought 226 70.0 25 7.7 72 22.3 2.48 82.6
was revealed in Table 1 out of the respondents who claimed to have occurrences of
have been
awareness about climate change only about one third (30.9%) of them increased
knew the details of the climate change. This implies that most of the Crop diseases 223 69.0 20 6.2 80 24.8 2.44 81.4
respondents participated in this study do not know the details of climate have been
change. Similar to this finding, according the study carried out in Imo increased
Various levels of 191 59.1 28 8.7 104 32.2 2.27 75.6
state Nigeria larger proportions (62.3%) of rural farmers either know
floods have
little or do not know about climate change (Ozor et al., 2015) which been increased
implies that the farmers have limited understanding of climate change. Dying of animals 181 56.0 17 5.3 125 38.7 2.17 72.4
To further examine the consistency of the respondent’s awareness have been
about climate change, questions related to the concept of climate change increased
Change in 180 55.7 7 2.2 136 42.1 2.14 71.2
was again presented to them. Accordingly, Table 1 revealed that only clothing style
41% of them conceptualized climate change as changes in the average has been
weather conditions over extended periods of time (30 years). In this observed
regard, less than half of the respondents correctly explained what Popularity of 161 49.8 33 10.3 129 39.9 2.10 70.0
newly
climate change all about is while the remaining proportions of the re­
introduced
spondents viewed climate change in the form of drought, deforestation plant species
and weather conditions. This implies that farmers could not clearly
Note: Agree ¼ 3, Neutral ¼ 2, Disagree ¼ 1 and maximum score is 323*3 ¼ 969.
identify the concept of climate change from its cause (deforestations)
Source: Compiled from survey result.
and impact (drought). This again indicates that rural farming commu­
nities are characterized by some gaps in understanding climate change.
Furthermore, smallholder farmers’ awareness about climate change nine years, I have observed that awareness of farmers about climate
was again examined by using question related to spatial scale of climate change has considerably improved. The mixed feeling of smallholder
change (Table 1). Chi square test result revealed that the difference in farmers about climate change is largely attributed to lack of well-
smallholder farmers response was statistically significant: awareness organized information about climate and lack of access to scientific
about climate change (χ2 ¼ 228.2, df ¼ 1, p ¼ 0.001), the level of data about the nature of current climate change. Even though the media
awareness about climate change (χ2 ¼ 35.0, df ¼ 2, p ¼ 0.000), aware­ expected to reach the mass of the communities regarding change of
ness about concept of the phrase climate change (χ2 ¼ 66.6, df ¼ 3, climate and its implications, the majority of rural farming communities
p ¼ 0.000) and awareness about the spatial scale of climate change do not have access to the electronic media which could another reason
(χ2 ¼ 302.2, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.001). This indicated that it was unlikely that for the observed gap. Agricultural extension system is also ineffective in
the difference in awareness would be due to chance alone. Even though providing relevant and up-to-date climate change information services
the majorities (64%) of the respondents correctly understand that to remote and poor smallholder farmers.
climate change is a problem occurred to the world nations, large re­
spondents are still characterized by inherent lack of awareness about
4.2. Perception of respondents about climate change
climate change impacts and also its threat. Moreover, though most of the
smallholder farmers in focus group discussions indicated that they are
Regarding the respondent’s general perceptions about climate
aware of climate change, it has been observed that they have very
change, the first question posed to them was aimed at to identify
limited knowledge about it. This was clearly observed while they were
generally whether they observed change of climate or not. Accordingly,
trying to explain what climate change is all about. They usually focus on
out of the total respondents of the study 323 equivalent to 92.1%
the temperature and rainfall conditions of one or two years to state
claimed that they have observed that climate was changed. On the other
climate change which do not coincide with existing literatures. Even, it
hand, only 28 respondents equivalent to 7.9% were in the view that
has been observed that some participants equated climate change to
climate was not changed so far. The result of the study is in agreement
deforestations and drought. However, one agricultural extension worker
with the findings reported by Mengistu (2011), Chikodzi et al. (2012),
pointed out that having worked with farmers of this district for around
Idrisa et al. (2012), Legesse et al. (2013) and Tessema et al. (2013)

4
H. Hundera et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx

Table 4 leading scientific communities of climate change in its recently released

Composite index of perception. report clearly revealed that the trend of temperature was increasing
Perception of the respondents about climate change Frequency Percentage (IPCC, 2014a).
Positive 228 70.6
Negative 74 22.9 4.4. Indicators of climate change as perceived by respondents
Mixed feeling 21 6.5

Source: Compiled from survey result.
indicating that that majority of the respondents of different areas have
noticed the change of climate.
4.3. Pattern of rainfall and temperature as perceived by respondents
As it indicated in Table 2 out of the respondents who reported change
of climate, the majorities (84.6%) of them reported that rainfall trend
was decreasing over the last 30 years. According the result of chi square
test, difference in smallholder farmers’ perception about rainfall was
statistically significant (χ2 ¼ 613.0, df ¼ 3, p ¼ 0.000), indicating that it
was unlikely that the difference observed in perceptions could be due to
chance. Supporting the decrement of the rainfall trend of the area, the
focus group discussants observed unpredictability of rainfall pattern,
prevalence of higher frequency of drought, and below the normal
amount in study area. The general idea of both respondents of the
questionnaires and focus group discussants were further confirmed by
the responses of the key informants. Hence, according to the result of
key informant interview during the same season the study area was
experienced both higher degrees of drought and extreme rainfall which
affected largely farming activities of the communities. As it was
observed by elderly peoples, the area was getting drier and drier. In line
with this, there are studies that support the idea that rainfall trend over
past years was decreasing like Legesse et al. (2013) and Tessema et al.
(2013).
Out of the total household questionnaire respondents who choose
climate has already changed, large proportions (69.2%) of them pointed
out that they observed that temperature had been rising over the last
three decades (Table 2). This implies that the majority of the re­
spondents pointed out that temperature was increasing in their area. The
result of chi square demonstrated that the difference in smallholder
farmers’ responses was statistically significant (χ2 ¼ 403.6, df ¼ 3,
p ¼ 0.000). The implication was that it was unlikely that the difference
in temperature perception could be due to chance factor. Additionally,
almost all members of the focus group discussions reported that they
observed an increasing trend of temperature over the past three decades
in their localities. In this context, indicating the reality of temperature
increment, one woman from the focus group discussions explained the
issue by saying ‘biiftuun gara lafaatti waan gad dhiyaatte fakkaata’ (it
mean that it seems that the sun has changed its position nearer to the
earth0 s surface). Many research works so far carried out in different parts
of Ethiopia (Mengistu, 2011; Legesse et al., 2013; Tessema et al., 2013)
have shown that the level of temperature has increased in recent years
which are consistent with the current finding. Most importantly, the
Perceptual statements about the indicators were presented to re­
spondents in the form of Likert scale (Table 3). As it has been evident in
Table 3 the study result revealed that 87.1% of respondents perceived
that growing period of crop has been shortened while 5.6% and 7.6%
disagreed and not sure about the statement. The majority (more than
76%) of the respondents also perceived that the variability (late and
early) of rainfall nature was considered as the local indictors of changing
climate. Decrement of available water bodies and increment of drought
occurrences have been also perceived by 75.2% and 70% of the small­
holder farmers of the study area respectively as local indicators of
climate change. Their average value of Likert score (more than 2.47) was
also relatively high demonstrating that the mentioned indicators were
perceived by the majority of the smallholders as further evidenced by
the overall cumulative percentage indicating their ranks. It has been also
confirmed that the indictors were emphasized during focus group dis­
cussions and interviews. Though majority of respondents revealed their
agreement to all perceptual statements, there were large minority of
respondents that either stated neutral or disagreed to the statements
revealing a significant gap in understanding the local indicators of
climate change. For instance, popularity of newly introduced plant
species, change in clothing style, dying of animals and increment of
flooding levels were not understand by relatively large group of re­
spondents (Table 3).
Composite index of respondent’s perception was shown in Table 4.
Out of the total respondents, 228 of them equivalent to 70.6% had
positive perception that climate is changed. In other words, their
response towards the indictors of climate change is in line the scientific
findings about climate change. Similarly, 74 respondents representing
22.9% had negative perception about climate. This means they were in
the view that climate was not changed. The remaining 21 respondents
equivalent to 6.5% were characterized by the mixed feeling about the
nature of climate change. According to the result therefore it was
possible to point out that the majority of the rural farming communities
of the study area have positive perception about climate change. They
generally perceived that climate change is the threat happened to their
livelihoods and this is a reference for the ongoing climate change
adaptation practices. In general, the majority of smallholder farmers
have understood the major local indicators of climate change which was
in line with several scientific findings. Food shortages in Africa were
largely attributed to the change in climate (FAO, 2008) and this change
will further result into the reduction of crop growing season (Collier
et al., 2008). According to Boko et al. (2007), the prevalence of agri­
cultural insects, pests, weed, fungi and others have strong attachment to
changing condition of climate thereby negatively influencing crop pro­
duction. Literatures also predicted that due to the changing of climate
the occurrences of floods, drought and other weather extreme events

Table 5
Mean Annual, CV and PCI of seasonal conditions from 1981 to 2016.
Rainfall Parameters Stations

Adama Koka Malkassa Modjo Walanchiti Wonji

Summer CV (%) 38.5 71.1 41.3 43.5 59.7 42.3

PCI 11 11.7 10.7 11 11.5 11.2
Share (%) 12.1 11.4 10.8 13.6 11.3 10.5
Spring CV (%) 92.7 122.3 85 99.4 106.4 85.5
PCI 14.2 15.4 4.2 14.6 14.2 14.6
Annual Mean (mm) 897.5 813.8 815.5 957.9 897.9 797.0
CV (%) 118.9 149.4 114.1 127.1 127.9 114.9
PCI 19.3 22.1 18.5 20.7 19.4 19.4

Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

5
H. Hundera et al.
Fig. 2. Summer rainfall total of the study area from 1981 to 2016.
Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.
will continue to affect the communities (IPCC, 2007b; Collier et al.,
2008).
4.5. Rainfall and temperature analysis
4.5.1. Precipitation Concentration Index, coefficient of variation and the
mean
As it was true in other parts of Ethiopia, the main rainy season
(summer) which runs from June to September contribute about 70% to
the total amounts of rainfall while 23% of the total rainfall came from
short rainy season (spring) that happened from February to May
(Table 5). The result was in agreement with recent studies carried out in
different parts of Ethiopia (Bewket and Conway, 2007; Hadgu et al.,
2014; Asfaw et al., 2018) who pointed out that the largest share was
came from summer. The stations have no marked differences in the
amounts of seasonal rainfall over the studied time periods.
According to the result of rainfall variability analysis (Table 5), all
the studied stations over the past 36 years were characterized by high
rainfall variability and change. For example, the smallest CV was 38.5%
at Adama station and the largest recorded was 71.1% at Koka during the
main rainy season in study area. However, the value of CV in short rainy
season ranges from 85% at Malkassa to 122.3% at Koka signifying that
the variability of rainfall was extremely high in study area over the last
36 years. In comparing with the short rainy season, the one documented
in main rainy season was relatively smaller indicating that the vari­
ability of rainfall was comparatively smaller. Similarly, in central and
north central highlands of Ethiopia more rainfall variability was recor­
ded in short rainy season than that of main rainy season (Alemayehu and
Bewket, 2017; Asfaw et al., 2018). Furthermore, the output of this study
also agrees with Tura (2017) who reported that extreme rainfall vari­
ability in Rift Valley areas were more experienced in spring season than
the summer season. Having annual CV that ranges from 114.1% to
149.4% over the past 36 years, the study area was characterized by very
strong rainfall variability that can affect crop production practices of
smallholder farmers since they total depend on the rain. In this context
the result of the focus group discussions held with smallholder farmers
also revealed that the rainfall pattern was generally variable and
unpredictable.
The PCI value of all considered weather station ranges from 10.7 at
Malkassa to 11.7 at Koka station. According to classification done by
Oliver (1980) the study area was generally characterized by moderate
monthly rainfall concentration during the summer season. With excep­
tion of Malakassa station which was characterized by low concentration
of monthly rainfall (PCI ¼ 4.2), the remaining stations were grouped
under moderate concentration of monthly rainfall. According to the
computed value of PCI, the distribution of rainfall was more uniform in
6
Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx
Table 6
Seasons and annual rainfall Mann-Kendall’s trend test results.
Seasons and Annual Kendall Score Kendall’s tau statistic P value
Summer 9 0.059 0.762
Spring 17 0.111 0.544
Annual 1042 0.045 0.327
Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.
summer rather than in spring season. Furthermore, annual PCI value
indicated in the table revealed that all stations have characterized by
irregular distribution of precipitation except Modjo which has 20.7 high
concentration of rainfall based on the scale presented by Oliver (1980).
The output agrees with the study carried out in Rift Valley area by
Gemechu et al. (2015) and Tura (2017) who pointed out that monthly
distribution of rainfall was inadequate. Mean annual rainfall of study
stations varies from 797 mm in Wonji to 957.9 mm in Modjo.
4.5.2. Summer rainfall
Fig. 2 shows summer rainfall distribution over the last 36 years of the
study area. According to the time series analysis of summer rainfall data,
the slope of the trend line was positive (y ¼ 17.459x þ 3292.5) implying
that the summer rainfall total was showing an increasing trend over the
last 36 years. The increment trend of summer rainfall was also revealed
in the result of Mann Kendall trend test (Table 6). However, according to
the result of household questionnaire, the majority of the respondents
reported that rainfall was generally decreasing. Most of the farmers who
participated in focus group discussion in the study site also perceived
that rainfall was decreasing. The observed gap with respect to the trend
of rainfall perhaps associated to the recently happened drought events
which are fresh in the mind of farmers at the time data collection. The
high nature of rainfall variability discussed earlier could also be the
factor for the observed discrepancy and the position of this paper is that
the rainfall was in its decreasing trend in study area. Analyzing the trend
of rainfall from spatial and temporal point of view in Rift Valley areas for
the last 30 years (1984–2013), Gemechu et al. (2015) concluded that the
seasonal rainfall was increasing.
4.5.3. Spring rainfall
Fig. 3 shows spring rainfall totals over the last 36 years of the study
area. As it can be seen from the Fig. 3, the trend of spring rainfall was
decreasing roughly by coefficient of 7.8547 having R2 ¼ 0.0251 over
the last 36 years with the slope equation (y ¼ 7.8547x þ 1339.5) and
similar trend was also revealed by Mann Kendall trend test (Table 6).
However, it was not statistically significant which could be attributed to
seasonal variability of rainfall. The result an empirical analysis of spring
H. Hundera et al. Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx

Fig. 3. Spring rainfall total of the study area from 1981 to 2016.
Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

Fig. 4. Total annual rainfall of the study area from 1981 to 2016.
Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

rainfall was in line with the perception of the respondents participated
in this study. Similarly, according to the result of study carried out by
Gemechu et al. (2015) the spring rainfall has been decreased from 1984
to 2013. It was also similar with the result of (Kassie et al., 2014).
4.5.4. Total annual rainfall
Regarding the trend analysis of total annual rainfall of the study area
over the past 36 years, it exhibited an increasing trend with strong
annual variability which was confirmed by trend line equation (Fig. 4).
With slope equation of y ¼ 16.216x þ 4879.7, the coefficient was pos­
itive and the increment was approximately by 16.216 having R2 value of

Fig. 5. Annual mean temperature of the study area from 1981 to 2016.
Source: computed based on raw data taken from NMA of Ethiopia.

7
H. Hundera et al.
0.0295. Similarly according to the result Man Kendall, it was in an
increasing trend (Table 6) even though it was contrary to the views of
most of the respondents participated in this study. In addition to pre­
viously explained, the reason for the gap would be that rural farming
communities mostly evaluate the nature of rainfall with respect to yield
and needs of crop at specific period while ground station data took into
consideration large and total events and conditions of the parameters
under consideration which could make the difference. However, the
result of statistical analysis was in agreement with Gemechu et al.
(2015) who described that annual rainfall was showing an increasing
trend in rift valley region.
4.5.5. Temperature analysis and its trends
As it was indicated in Fig. 5 the higher mean annual temperature was
recorded in 1982, 1983, 1984, 1992, 2009 and 2015 while the lower was
happened in 1981, 1986, 1996, 2005 and 2011. Statistical analysis of
annual mean temperature was depicted an increasing trend and
compared with the views of the respondents. Accordingly, the obser­
vations made by the majority respondents were in line with the statis­
tical analysis. This indicates that the study area was characterized by
relatively high evapotranspiration due the fact that mean annual tem­
perature is relatively high. This implies that surface water availability is
adversely influenced which further negatively affect the moisture con­
tent of the soil thereby affecting crop production of the rural farming
societies.
5. Conclusion and recommendation
Even though most of rural farming communities of study area
claimed that they were aware of climate change, they were generally
characterized by some gaps in understanding what climate change all
about is. Most of their definitions were not in line with the theoretical
definition of climate change implying that they have limited knowledge
about it. The majorities of the smallholder farmers perceived that tem­
perature was increasing while rainfall was showing decreasing trend.
Their perception about temperature was supported by Man Kendall
trend test. However, the result of Man Kendall trend test about rainfall
was not in line with the respondents’ perception. Most of the small­
holder farmers’ perception about the local indictors of climate was in
line with several scientific outputs. It is also important to enhance
awareness of rural farming communities about climate change by
providing training and also raising awareness on issues related to
climate change through provision of well-organized learning materials.
Moreover, it is essential to update the knowledge and skill of agricultural
extension agents for improving climate information services in rural
remote areas. This would help smallholder farmers of study area to get
relevant and up-to-date information about climate change and its im­
pacts. In addition, agricultural extension works should get adequate
supply of motor cycles, bicycles, horses and other materials like statio­
neries and offices. For these facilities, meteorological services, agricul­
tural and natural resource offices, microfinance services, adult literacy
facilities, education system and others should work together.
Declaration of competing interest
Declaration of interest is none.
Acknowledgment
We acknowledge the financial support we obtained from Arsi Uni­
versity for this manuscript. We would like to thank various institutions
like Adama district agricultural offices, national meteorological agency
and its branch office for providing us the required data. We are also very
grateful for the smallholder farmers of the Adama district for responding
to our questionnaires.
8
Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx
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Weather and Climate Extremes xxx (xxxx) xxx
Hurgesa Hundera is an assistant professor in Department of Geography and Environ­
mental Studies, Arsi University, Ethiopia. He obtained BED Degree in Geography as major
and Economics as minor from Bahir Dar University in 2006 and MA Degree in Physical
Geography from the same University in 2010. He also obtained his MSC Degree in Earth
Sciences specialization in Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing from Addis
Ababa University in 2016. His research areas are land use and land cover change, climate
change adaptation, ecosystem management, climate smart agriculture
Prof Sylvester Mpandeli is an Executive Manager at the Water Research Commission
(WRC). He joined the WRC as a Researcher Manager in 2013. He is an Adjunct Professor at
the University of Venda, School of Environmental Sciences since 2013. He worked at the
Agricultural Research Council – Institute for Soil, Climate and Water (ARC-ISCW) for 9
years. He serves as a Board Member of the ACCESS, Advisory Board Member of the Joint
Programme Initiative (JPI) of the European Commission (EC) from 2019 to 2022, member
of the International Executive Council (IEC) of the International Commission on Irrigation
and Drainage (ICID) from 2013 till to date, and as a Specialist Advisor to the Department of
Environmental from 2009 to 2012 and later as Director responsible for Climate Change
Adaptation sectors from 2012 to 2013. He has earned the following degrees in between
1997 & 2006, Bachelor in Agriculture from University of Venda (1997), two honours
degrees in Horticulture and Land Use Planning from the University of Pretoria in 1998 &
2002, Masters degree in Irrigation and Agronomy in 2001 from University of Pretoria,
Doctor of Philosophy in Climatology from University of Witwatersrand in 2006. He has
been involved in Research & Development and Innovation for the past 20 years focusing on
Agriculture, Water and Environmental sectors. His particular areas of interest are climate
change adaptation, food security, water -energy -food nexus, agricultural water manage­
ment etc. He has published 2 books and over 100 scientific articles, conference /workshop
proceedings, technical reports. He has been an external examiner at the Universities of
KwaZulu -Natal, North West, Venda, Wits and Unisa.
Amare Bantider (PhD). PhD on Geography and Natural Resources Management from the
University of Bern Switzerland, currently Director for Natural Resource Governance and
Socioeconomic Research Division, Water and Land Resource Centre (Addis Ababa Uni­
versity), and Associate Professor of Geography and Natural Resource Management, Col­
lege of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University. His research interest lies on
watershed management, integrated landscape management, ecosystem services, land use
and land cover change, climate change and society, and soil and water management. He
has more than 20 years of research and teaching experience at higher learning institutions
of Ethiopia since 1997. Supervised several MSc and PhD research in broader fields of land
resource management including watershed management, climate change adaptation, land
use and land cover change, food security studies and soil and water conservation activities.
He also authored and co-authored papers and published in peer reviewed journals as well
as Book chapters. Successfully coordinated several research projects in the field of Sus­
tainable Land Management.