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5.8 HAZARD ANALYSIS

Existing hazards in the site and its potential future threats are examined

considering not only hydro meteorological but also geological hazards that are of major

concern to the local governments. The researchers coordinated with the Department of Science

and Technology (DOST) to assess or to evaluate various hazards of the existing site.

5.8.1. SEISMIC HAZARDS

 Earthquake-Induced landslide

Earthquake shaking can cause land sliding on many scales. An earthquake can cause a slope

to become unstable by the inertial loading it imposes or by causing a loss of strength in the slope

materials. The site is safe from earthquake-induced landslide.

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 Fissures

Fissure is a long fine crack in the surface. There is no seismic fissure near the site.

 Liquefaction

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Soil liquefaction occurs when a saturated or partially saturated soil substantially loses

strength and stiffness in response to an applied stress such as shaking during an earthquake or

other sudden change in stress condition, in which material that is ordinarily a solid behaves like a

liquid. The site is safe fromt soil liquefaction.

 Tsunami

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Tsunami is a long high sea wave caused by an earthquake, submarine landslide, or other

disturbance. The site is too far from the tsunami prone areas. Therefore, the site is safe from the

tsunamis.

SEISMIC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF THE SITE

EXPLANATION AND RECOMMENDATION

 All hazard assessments are based on the available susceptibility

maps and the coordinates of the user’s selected location.

 Ground rupture hazard assessment is the distance to the nearest

known active fault in the area. The recommended buffer zone, or

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Zone of Avoidance, against ground rupture hazard is at least 5 meters on both sides of the active

fault or from its zone of deformation.

 Fissure, with its related ground subsidence, may not be a potential source of earthquake.

However, fissures and ground subsidence may develop further if the condition that generated

them continued to persist, or as a response to strong ground shaking. The recommended buffer

zone, or Zone of Avoidance, against fissuring is at least 5 meters on both sides of the fissure.

 All sites may be affected by ground shaking in the event of an earthquake.

 Ground shaking and liquefaction hazards can be mitigated by following the provisions of the

National Building Code and the Structural Code of the Philippines.

 Avoidance is recommended for sites with earthquake-induced landslide hazard unless

appropriate engineering interventions are in place.

 Tsunami threat to people’s lives can be addressed by community preparedness and a tsunami

evacuation plan. Advice for tsunami evacuation comes from public agencies and the local

government. But more importantly, coastal communities must learn to evacuate themselves when

they recognize the three natural signs of tsunami, which are 1) strong ground shaking, 2) unusual

rise or fall of sea level, and 3) strong or unusual sound coming from the sea.

5.8.2 VOLCANIC HAZARDS

 West Valley Fault

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) director Renato Solidum Jr.,

meanwhile, warned that should the West Valley Fault move again and cause a 7.2-magnitude

earthquake, around 31,000 people may die.

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The West Valley Fault – which runs across Marikina, Quezon City, Pasig, Makati and

Taguig has moved four times in the last 1,400 years, with a major earthquake occurring every

400 years. The last major earthquake took place in 1658 or 356 years ago. “Given such facts, it is

safe to say that we can expect the West Valley Fault to move within our lifetime,” Solidum said.

The earthquake itself would not cause the deaths, but the effects of the shaking would cause

buildings to collapse, fire, liquefaction and landslide, which are expected to claim thousands of

lives.

Moreover, the damage and death would happen not only in the areas along the fault line but

also in the areas around it. All stakeholders, including the government, should invest more

heavily in disaster risk reduction efforts.

 Active Volcanoes

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There are no active volcanoes in the region. The nearest active volcano is the Taal Volcano

that is 60.8 km far from the site.

 Inactive Volcanoes

There are no Inactive Volcanoes near the site or region.

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 Volcanic lahar

Volcanic lahar describes a hot or cold mixture of water and rock fragments that flows

down the slopes of a volcano and typically enters a river valley. The site is very safe from

volcanic lahar devastation.

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 Volcanic Potentially Active Volcanoes

There are no Potentially Active Volcanoes near the site or region.

 Volcanic Pyroclastic Density Currents

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A pyroclastic flow is a fast-moving current of hot gas and volcanic matter that moves away

from a volcano about 100 km/h (62 mph) on average but is capable of reaching speeds up to 700

km/h (430 mph). The site is too far from the active volcanoes so that it’s safe from volcanic

pyroclastic flows.

 Volcanic Seiche

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A seiche is a standing wave in an enclosed or partially enclosed body of water. Seiches

and seiche-related phenomena have been observed on lakes, reservoirs, swimming pools, bays,

harbours and seas. The site is safe from volcanic seiche.

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VOLCANIC HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF THE SITE

EXPLANATION AND RECOMMENDATION

 All hazard assessments are based on the available susceptibility

maps and the coordinates of the user’s selected location.

 The Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) is a zone that

can always be affected by small-scalevolcanic eruptions. The

primary hazards from the volcano are pyroclastic flow and surge, lava flow, ballistic bomb, and

tephra fall. Human settlement is not recommended within the PDZ.

 Areas prone to pyroclastic density currents are based on historical medium-scale eruptions of the

volcano. Current pyroclastic hazard limits may be exceeded during larger-scale Plinian

eruptions.

 Areas prone to lava flow hazard are based on the extent of lava deposits from historical eruptions

of the volcano.

 Areas immediately prone to seiche are those along the lakeshore of Taal and Buhi Lake. Lahar

Hazard assessments are long-term lahar hazard projections based on the volcano’s morphology,

eruption history, as well as its tendency for rapid morphologic changes during periods of intense

and/or prolonged rainfall, or after a major lahar event.

 Lahar threat to people’s lives can be addressed by 1) observing or implementing legal easement

adjacent to river banks, as provided in existing laws, ordinances andland-use plans, and 2)

community preparedness and evacuation plan. At-risk communities must learn to evacuate

themselves when lahar threats are imminent.

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 Base surge from the Main Crater of Taal Volcano can travel downslope in all direction and even

across the Taal Lake.

 Areas prone to base surge hazard are based on the 1754 Main Crater eruption of Taal Volcano.

5.8.3 HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS

 Flood

Taguig City Rescue chief Ronald Galicia said they have identified nine barangays out of the

city’s 28 villages which can be considered as “critical areas” that are susceptible to floods. They

are Barangays Bagumbayan, Lower Bicutan, New Lower Bicutan, Hagonoy, San Miguel, Wawa,

Bambang, Napindan and Ibayong Tipas.

The site is one of the areas with low susceptibility to flood. 0.5 meter height of flood that

will stay for less than one day is expecting to occur in Fort Bonifacio Global City.

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 Storm Surge

Storm surge is a rising of the sea as a result of atmospheric pressure changes and wind

associated with a storm.

At least 23 areas in the Philippines, including Metro Manila cities, are prone to storm surges

during typhoons as strong as Yolanda, the Department of Science and Technology (DOST)’s

Nationwide Operational Assessment Hazard (NOAH) project found out.

The risk areas include the coastal cities of Navotas, Las Piñas, Parañaque and Manila in

Metro Manila and the coastal towns in the provinces of Pampanga, Bataan, Quezon, Albay and

Camarines Sur.

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The site is safe from storm surges.

HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF THE SITE ( Flood and

Rain-Induced Landslide)

EXPLANATION AND RECOMMENDATION

o Flood

 Areas with low susceptibility to floods are likely to experience

flood heights of less than 0.5 meters and/or flood duration of less

than 1 day. These include low hills and gentle slopes that have sparse to moderate drainage

density.

 Areas with moderate susceptibility to floods are likely to experience flood heights of 0.5 meters

up to 1 meter and/or flood duration of 1 to 3 days. These are subject to widespread inundation

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during prolonged and extensive heavy rainfall or extreme weather conditions. Fluvial terraces,

alluvial fans, and infilled valleys are also moderately subjected to flooding.

 Areas with high susceptibility to floods are likely to experience flood heights of 1 meter up to 2

meters and/or flood duration of more than 3 days. Sites including active river channels,

abandoned river channels, and areas along riverbanks, are immediately flooded during heavy

rains of several hours and are prone to flash floods. These may be considered not suitable for

permanent habitation but may be developed for alternative uses subject to the implementation of

appropriate mitigation measures after conducting site-specific geotechnical studies as deemed

necessary by project engineers and LGU building officials.

 Areas with very high susceptibility to floods are likely to experience flood heights of greater than

2 meters and/or flood duration of more than 3 days. These include active river channels,

abandoned river channels, and areas along riverbanks, which are immediately flooded during

heavy rains of several hours and are prone to flash floods. These are considered critical

geohazard areas and are not suitable for development. It is recommended that these be declared

as “No Habitation/No Build Zones” by the LGU, and that affected households/communities be

relocated.

 The implementation of appropriate mitigation measures as deemed necessary by project

engineers and LGU building officials is recommended for areas that are susceptible to various

flood depths. Site-specific studies including the assessment for other types of hazards should also

be conducted to address potential foundation problems.

o Rain-Induced Landslide

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 Areas with low susceptibility to rain-induced landslides are gently sloping areas with no

identified landslides.

 Areas with moderate susceptibility to rain-induced landslides are those with moderately steep

slopes where soil creep and other indications of possible landslide occurrence are present.

 Areas with high susceptibility to rain-induced landslides usually have steep to very steep slopes

that are underlain by weak materials, with the presence of numerous old/inactive landslides.

These sites may be considered not suitable for permanent habitation but may be developed for

alternative uses subject to the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures after

performing site-specific geotechnical studies.

 Areas with very high susceptibility to rain-induced landslides usually have steep to very steep

slopes that are underlain by weak materials, and have recent landslides, escarpments, and tension

cracks present. These could be aggravated by human-initiated effects. These are considered as

critical geohazard areas and are not suitable for development. Thus, it is recommended that these

be declared as “No Habitation/No Build Zones” by the LGU, and that affected

households/communities be relocated.

 Areas along the debris flow path or accumulation zone could be affected by landslide debris

materials. These are usually found at the base of slopes with manifestations of mass movement.

These are considered as critical geohazard areas and may not be suitable for development. It is

recommended that permanent habitation/development be avoided as remobilization of debris

from previous landslide events may occur. In addition, relocation of settlements along debris

flow paths is suggested.

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 Implementation of appropriate mitigation measures as deemed necessary by project engineers

and LGU building officials is recommended for landslide-susceptible areas. This includes

performing site-specific studies to address potential foundation/slope stability problems.

 Monitoring of signs/evidences of ground movement such as tension cracks, tilted trees and

fences, and bulging road sections in areas that are moderately to critically susceptible to

landslides should be done regularly and reported to local authorities and/or the MGB.

5.8.4 HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL HAZARDS ASSESSMENT OF THE SITE (Storm

Surge and Severe Wind)

EXPLANATION AND RECOMMENDATION

o Storm Surge

 The storm surge hazard maps identify coastal areas where flooding

may happen if a storm surge is predicted.

 A storm surge (“daluyong ng bagyo”) is the abnormal rise in sea level that occurs during tropical

cyclones or “bagyo”. It happens when a very strong tropical cyclone blows-off excessive

amounts of seawater toward low-lying coastal communities.

 It is catastrophic and life-threatening because a storm surge can cause massive inland flooding,

sometimes in unimaginable heights. It is even more dangerous when the storm surge coincides

with a high tide.

 Areas susceptible to storm surge inundation of 0.5 to 1 meter are categorized as “low to

moderate risk” zones. Low-lying communities are advised to prepare to evacuate, stay away

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from the coast or beach, remind household members of disaster preparedness and

communication/coordination plans, emergency and evacuation kits, and listen/follow PAGASA

for the latest weather update.

 Areas susceptible to storm surge inundation of 1.1 to 4 meters are categorized as “high to very

high risk” zones. Communities may anticipate a life-threatening scenario, follow evacuation

guidelines from local authorities, expect damage to community and infrastructures, cancel all

marine/coastal activities, and listen/follow PAGASA for the latest weather update.

 Areas susceptible to storm surge inundation of above 4 meters are zones with “highest risk” to

storm surge inundation. Storm surge is catastrophic. Significant threat to life, so mandatory

evacuation is enforced. Storm surge will severely damage communities and coastal/marine

facilities.

 For storm surge-prone communities, the most important considerations are 1) the strength of the

tropical cyclone, 2) the height of the surge, and 3) if the community is located in a low-lying

areas.

o Severe Wind

 The Regional Severe Wind Hazard Map represents the 3-second peak gust wind speed measured

at 10-meter height (above ground) over open and flat terrain. This does not take into account the

local factors such as topography, terrain roughness and shielding from neighbouring structures.

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 The Regional Severe Wind Hazard is expressed in terms of Return Periods (RPs) of Tropical

Cyclone winds. Return period means the repeat interval, or the estimate of likelihood and

severity of severe wind event. Return periods are then translated into Annual Exceedance

Probabilities (AEPs) which are the chance that a given severe wind hazard level will be equalled

or exceeded in any year.

 At higher return periods, the wind speeds are stronger but are less frequent.

 At lower return periods, the wind speeds are less intense but are more frequent.

 The Regional severe wind hazard maps are used to update the wind zoning map of the

Philippines and as reference in designing building structures.

 For those areas identified as high risk to wind damage, building codes/regulations must be

strictly implemented to mitigate severe wind risks. For already developed areas, retrofitting is

encouraged – the methods applied in this study can be used to set out a cost-benefit study for

retrofitting older, more vulnerable building types to increase their resilience to severe winds.

5.8.4 SUMMARY

In seismic hazard, the site might be affected by ground shaking in the event of an

earthquake but it’s safe against ground rupture, liquefaction, earthquake-induced landslide and

tsunami. The nearest active volcano is Taal Volcano situated in Batangas City and it is 60.8km a

long way from the site and base on the assessment, the site is safe in terms of ballistic

projectiles, base surge and seiches. In hydro-meteorological hazards, the site is on of the areas

with low susceptibility to floods and likely to experience flood heights of 0.5 meters and safe

against storm surge. In 20-year return period and 500-year return period, wind severe reaches up

to 117.1-220kph. Overall, the site is safe against various hazards and this will serve as one of the

considerations in planning the Tower of Power.

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