00 positive Bewertungen00 negative Bewertungen

4 Ansichten13 SeitenUrban Planning

Nov 18, 2019

© © All Rights Reserved

PDF, TXT oder online auf Scribd lesen

Urban Planning

© All Rights Reserved

Als PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

4 Ansichten

00 positive Bewertungen00 negative Bewertungen

Urban Planning

© All Rights Reserved

Als PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

Sie sind auf Seite 1von 13

The dynamics affecting the growth and/or decline of cities is a classic concern for those

in the field of system study. Jay Forrester wrote a controversial book, “Urban

Dynamics,” that indicated that much of the “wisdom” of city planners who were trying to

stop urban decay in the latter part of the 20th century was, in fact, on the wrong track. He

suggested that some of their policies to improve urban decay may have, instead,

intensified it. He went on to suggest that urban growth/decay issues involve complex

interconnections that are not linear, and as such, must be studied by methods (computer

simulation) that illuminate the multiple feedback loops such dynamics entail. Using

computer simulation to study policies for change provided conclusions that stimulated

heated discussions among city leaders because some were counterintuitive.

Considerable thought has been given to how one might approach the broad topic of urban

dynamics.

J1. When you travel to a new city, what visual characteristics might indicate the city is

thriving as opposed to decaying?

J2. What are some important variables that people think about when they decide to move

into a different city from the one in which they are currently living?

The concern with city growth or decline usually centers around economic change and we

will choose to study the increase, and/or decrease, in actual physical commercial

buildings as an indication of the economic health of a city. We will build sub-model

structures that represent important factors in the study of city dynamics, and then put all

the pieces together in the last problem. Periodically we will test some policy strategies

using our model.

1 This lesson was written by Diana M. Fisher. Thanks to George Richardson for guidance in the

development of this model scenario. Two excellent resources are Jay Forrester’s “Urban Dynamics” and

"Introduction to Urban Dynamics" by Alfeld and Graham.

8.2 Urban Dynamics Model Student Lessons Page 8-15

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

Problem 1a: Business

The growth of an urban area could be characterized by two dynamics. First, business

gives birth to more business. Second, the development of new business takes up space.

If a city is able to attract new business then it usually necessitates the construction of

some new buildings. Construction of new commercial buildings is one factor that is

readily observable in a (seemingly) healthy city.

The first model structure will concentrate on the growth of commercial buildings in a

city. As the number of businesses increase, the city growth is stimulated because existing

businesses create a demand for more supporting businesses. For example, a new factory

built in a city will require the support of other companies or businesses in order to operate

successfully. Those other companies might provide maintenance for machines, or supply

raw materials and power. Support businesses might be restaurants for the workers to use

at lunch, etc. Similarly, as the variety of businesses increases in an area, it stimulates

more businesses to move to the area because there are resource businesses available. So

businesses, as represented by commercial buildings, stimulate the growth of new

businesses.

high

change in the number of business structures in a Draw your

healthy, thriving city over a simulated 100 years. graph in

Write a one or two sentence explanation for the reason you drew your journal.

low

the graph as you did. Explain, very briefly, how we might 0 100

recognize, in a graph, that a city is not healthy? years

To start the first model structure we will use the following information: Assume there

are 1000 commercial buildings currently in the city we are studying. New buildings are

normally constructed at an annual 7% rate. There are 1000 acres zoned for all

commercial buildings, with each building consuming, on average, 0.2 of an acre.

Of course, as the land zoned for commercial buildings gets used up, the rate of new

construction should slow down. You should include this in your model by using a

converter called “Effect of land fraction on construction.” This construction rate

modifier will have a value between 0 and 1. In your model, the modifier will be

multiplied by the normal construction rate to determine the current construction rate.

The normal construction rate should be used as long as Effect of land fraction on construction

the ratio of land occupied by businesses to land zoned 1

is 30% or less. The construction rate modifier should

remain high as long as possible and drop quickly when

the occupied land is between 85% and 95%. There

should be no construction allowed if there is no land

available. Sketch the general shape of the graph on 0

the axes shown at the right. 0 1

Land occupied / Land zoned

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

Design the diagram for this scenario. Be sure to include units when defining each

component. (Be sure your stocks do not have the "non-negative" box checked. Set the

DT to 0.125 and the simulation time to 100 years.) Use the graph to help you determine

if this section works correctly. The graph should contain the number of buildings and the

number of new buildings being constructed.

What will you look at to build confidence that your structure is doing the right thing?

Problem 1b

Before going on, lock the previous graph pad. It will be used as a reference for this

problem.

Modify the previous model to include the fact that buildings do not last forever. Assume

a building has an average lifetime of 40 years, after which it is demolished.

Before running your model, describe how you think your new model output might be

different with regard to the number of buildings and the new constructions.

Make a new graph showing the number of buildings, the new constructions flow, and the

demolition flow.

Print the diagram, equations with units, and the graph all on one page.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

Problem 2: People

This city is very unrealistic at present, because it has no people! Who will work in all of

these businesses? We need to design a population structure. The population segment of

this model will be constructed as a separate segment, for now.

The simple population model structure should include a birth rate of 3% of the current

population, a death rate of 1.5%, immigration to the city of 8% and emigration from the

city of 6%. Start with a population of 40,000 people.

Be sure to include separate converters to represent each growth/decay rate. We may want

to change some of the values later, and it is easier to do that if they are specified

separately. (This is always a good practice to follow.)

Before executing this model segment describe what you think should occur with the

population size over time. (It should be easy to determine.)

Run the simulation to make sure this section actually works as you expected.

Stop for a moment and consider the two structures you have built so far. We will be

connecting these two structures soon. Is there anything that troubles you about the

growth pattern of businesses and people at this point?

A healthy city will be more attractive to the influx of new people because it provides

jobs. When the two previous model segments are connected, the connecting components

will have to do with the labor force and the availability of jobs. We will want to include

the following new components:

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

We will assume that 35% of the population is in the paid labor force. We will also

assume that each building provides 16 jobs.

The "Labor to Jobs Ratio" will have a significant impact on the attractiveness of the city

to other people who might think of moving to the city.

J4. In your journal, describe what you think happens to immigration when a

city has plenty of jobs, not enough jobs, and just the right number of jobs for

the current population.

function, have a value between 0 and 2, and would modify 2

the immigration rate. Call this modifier "Attractiveness

from Jobs." We could reasonably expect that the multiplier

would be 1 as long as the ratio of labor to jobs is 1. The 1

multiplier value should be at its highest if there are lots of

jobs and no people to fill them. But, if there are twice as

many people as jobs (the largest possible situation for the 0

0 1 2

ratio) then this multiplier will reduce the immigration to Labor / Jobs

1/10th of its normal rate. Sketch what the graph of this

multiplier should look like on the axes at the right. Then add this component to your

model.

The "Labor to Jobs Ratio" will also affect the construction of new buildings.

J5. In your journal, describe what you think happens to the rate of new

construction of buildings when there is a large supply of labor available,

insufficient labor available, and just sufficient labor available for the current

number of jobs.

Effect Labor/Job on Construct

would be a graphical function, have a value between 0 and 2, 2

and would modify the normal construction rate. As before, we

could reasonably expect that the multiplier would be 1 as long

as the ratio of labor to jobs is 1. If there are very few workers 1

available (a very low labor to jobs ratio), new construction

should be low, because there would not be enough people

available to work in the new buildings. So the modifier 0

0 1 2

should be, say, 0.2 when the labor to jobs ratio is less than Labor / Jobs

10%. When the labor to jobs ratio is at 2 (the largest possible

situation), then the modifier would double the normal construction rate. Sketch what the

graph of this multiplier should look like on the axes at the right. Then add this

component to your model.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

Would you expect the population and number of buildings to be:

• growing,

• one growing and the other steady,

• both steady,

• one growing and the other growing and then declining,

• or both growing and then declining?

(This will not be easy to determine! But try anyway, before running the simulation.)

Run the simulation. Print the diagram, equations with units, and the graph of the

buildings, the population, and the labor to jobs ratio on no more than two pages.

Identify one feedback loop in the system that contains either buildings or population and

contains labor to jobs ratio. Draw the feedback loop. Explain the loop and indicate

whether it is reinforcing or counteracting.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

At this point save your current model. You will be modifying your model to test some

policies. Save your model a second time, giving it a new name so you can test the

situations described in 3a, 3b, and 3c below.

Now let's test some scenarios designed to try to reduce unemployment. The labor to jobs

ratio is a crude indicator of unemployment. When the ratio is greater than one, we have

unemployment. When the ratio is less than one, we have under-employment. So we

want to try to find a policy that will reduce the labor to jobs ratio.

3a. Assume one city council has decided that if more business is attracted to the city, the

unemployment will decrease. Increase the building construction rate to 0.1 in the 10th

year to reflect this policy. Graph the number of buildings, the population, and the labor

to jobs ratio. What happened? Why? (Hint: Use a feedback loop to help you. You may

want to include other factors in your graph to see what is influencing the change.)

3b. Undo the change from the previous policy. Assume the city council of another city

decides to build business structures that will contain more businesses per structure.

Modify your model so that in the 10th year the number of jobs per business structure

increases from 16 to 20, to reflect this policy. Graph the number of buildings, the

population, and the labor to jobs ratio. What happened? Why? (Hint: Use a feedback

loop to help you. You may want to include other factors in your graph to see what is

influencing the change.)

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

3c. Undo the change introduced in the previous policy. As a consultant to a third city,

decide which policy you would suggest and explain why you chose the one you did. Or

(extra credit), come up with a policy of your own that would improve unemployment in

the long term. (If you decide to devise your own policy, do not put the policy into effect

until the 10th year. Also, print a diagram, equations with units, and a graph containing

businesses, population, and labor to jobs ratio. Then explain your policy. Use the back

of the diagram printout if you need more space for your explanation.)

Problem 4: Housing

Re-open the model you saved before experimenting with potential solutions to the

unemployment scenarios above.

Housing represents another issue that has a significant impact on whether people want to

live in a city. The structure for a housing segment should follow exactly the structure

used for buildings. An increase in housing can influence more people to move to an area,

which will increase the demand for more housing. The specifics for this segment are

listed below:

Initially there are 10,000 houses. Housing construction is growing at a normal rate of 6%

per year.

The total acreage available for houses is 7,500, and each house occupies, on average, 0.1

of an acre.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

As the amount of land occupied by houses increases, the construction rate decreases (and

it will decrease in the same general pattern as the buildings rate decreased). This "Effect

of land fraction on construction rate" will be a value between 0 and 1 and will be

multiplied by the normal construction rate to determine the current construction rate.

A multiplier of 1 should be used as long as the fraction of land occupied is 30% or less.

The "Effect ..." on construction rate should remain high as long as possible and drop

quickly when the occupied land is between 85% and 95%. There should be no

construction allowed if there is no land available (as was the case with the building

segment of the model).

Design this model component. Execute the simulation and study the "houses" and "new

houses constructed per year" graphs to determine whether the segment is working as you

would expect.

Well, the diagram is going to look very large now, but all the pieces should make sense.

When we add the housing segment, the primary impact on city growth is whether there is

enough housing to attract more people to the city. The information needed to properly

connect the housing segment to the buildings and population model segments is as

follows:

Set up a "Population to Houses Ratio" converter that calculates the ratio of the city

population to the number of people that the current houses could contain. Assume that

each house would contain 4 people.

Next, design a graphical converter called "Attractiveness of Housing", whose value will

be between 0 and 2, and whose value will modify the current immigration rate. When

there is a small population to housing ratio (10% or less) the modifier is 1.4 (people

would be attracted to the city at greater than normal rates). When the ratio of population

to housing is 2 (the housing is insufficient to satisfy the demand for housing) the modifier

becomes 0.4 (because people will live in neighboring towns and commute, if necessary,

but this is not as attractive to most people as being able to live in the city itself). It is

expected that meeting the housing demand exactly will result in a normal immigration

rate.

Note: Residential construction will not be affected by labor shortages in this model.

the ratio of population to housing is low (less than 10%), there is not much demand for

new houses so the construction rate would be modified to 20% of its normal rate. If the

population to housing ratio is 2 (the largest ratio that will be considered), then the

construction rate should be doubled. As before, a ratio of 1 should not change the normal

construction rate.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

Below, sketch the shape of each multiplier graph you decided to use. They should make

sense.

Attractiveness of Housing Effect of Ratio on House Construction

2 2

1 1

0 0

0 1 2 0 1 2

Pop/House Pop/House

Print the diagram, the equations with units, and the graph of the buildings, the

population, and the houses.

Identify one feedback loop in the system that contains either houses or population and

contains the population to housing ratio. Draw the feedback loop. Explain the loop and

indicate whether it is reinforcing or counteracting.

Problem 5b

Finally, we can simplify the model by combining the two area converters into a total area

available converter. We can determine the fraction of land occupied, taking into

consideration both the building need for land, and the housing need for land. The "Effect

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

of land fraction on construction rate" would modify both the housing construction rate

and the building construction rate (since the graph for each was defined exactly the same

way).

Why do you think we could combine each area into a total area since each area has been

zoned differently? (Hint: What do you think a city would do if the previous zoning

requirements did not meet the current growth situation?)

Now define a graph that will show the number of buildings, population, and houses over

time. Run the simulation.

What do you notice about the growth of buildings, houses, and population now,

compared to their growth pattern in problem 5a?

Print out the diagram, the equations with units, and a graph of buildings, population, and

houses, on no more than two pages. Print a table (include all stocks, flows, and ratio

values). Have the table display values every 5 years.

Again we will test some scenarios to see if we can improve the situation.

5c. One city council decides that if more housing is available, more people will come to

the city, causing the city to grow and prosper. Test this scenario by increasing the

housing construction rate to 8% in the 10th year. Create two graphs: one containing

buildings, houses, and population, the other containing labor to jobs ratio and population

to housing ratio. What happened? Why? (Hint: Use a feedback loop to help you.) Is

this a good policy?

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

5d. Undo the change from the previous policy. Assume the city council of another city

decides to build high-density housing that will contain townhouses and apartments.

Modify your model so that in the 10th year the number of people per housing structure

increases from 4 to 15, to reflect this policy. Create two graphs: one containing

buildings, houses, and population, the other containing labor to jobs ratio and population

to housing ratio. What happened? Why? (Hint: Use a feedback loop to help you.) Is

this a good policy?

5e. Undo the previous change. A third city council decides that, to improve the

unemployment rate (and hence the economy of the city), both job and housing

availability must be considered. They think that if they can free up land to allow more

business to be built, then the unemployment rate will decrease. Let's see if they are

correct. In the 10th year, decrease the housing lifetime from 70 years to 35 years. This

will make more land available to the city. In the 10th year increase the business

construction rate from 7% to 10% per year. This will cause the businesses to take up

more of the land share than the houses will take up. Create two graphs: one containing

buildings, houses, and population, the other containing labor to jobs ratio and population

to housing ratio. What happened? Why? Is this a good policy?

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

J6. (Extra Credit) In your journal, reflect on this situation. In the 1960's

many city governments built low-income housing developments in their

cities.

a. Do you think this made life better for the poor? Why or why not?

c. Do some research and identify some unintended consequences of the policy to build

low-income housing projects. Be sure to list your sources and, if possible, include the

actual articles from some of your sources.

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First Course 3rd Edition © 2011 Diana M. Fisher

## Viel mehr als nur Dokumente.

Entdecken, was Scribd alles zu bieten hat, inklusive Bücher und Hörbücher von großen Verlagen.

Jederzeit kündbar.