Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Content Page
Content Page 2
Current Situation 25
Scope of Debate 16
Past Actions 18
Key Questions 26
Bibliography 277
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Welcoming Remarks
[Beginning Transmission of Classified Information]
Code: CAESAR - 11
-Beginning Decryption-
Dear Directors,
Thank you for agreeing to convene upon our request. We are aware that
this committee is an unconventional one given the nature of your
profession. In fact, it is highly likely that some of your agencies were or
are still conducting operations against one another. However, given the
recent developments across the globe, we believe that it may be both in your
country and the international community’s best interest that we discuss
them.
Best of luck,
Presidential Board of International Intelligence Agencies
Caleb, Elliot, Celine, Josh, Lukas, and Aliva
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[End of Transmission]
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Crisis Dais Introduction
Celine
4
Joshua Mahawira Aswinabawa
Lukas Mikael
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Explanation of the Council and Mandate
Individual Mandate
Council Mandate
With respect to the council, the committee acts as a hidden committee from
the public, and any mentions of the committee’s existence will be refuted or
not answered for political and security reasons.
The range of actions the committee is limited only to the potential actions
that can be taken by intelligence agencies. You may take joint or collective
directives or agreements, however, they can be blocked by your governments
for political reasons without a valid explanation.
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Introduction to the Topic
Intelligence agencies around the world have kept tabs on national threats.
As such attacks are carried out with increasing sophistication, terror
groups and operative cells continually adapt their operations. They carry
out deadly attacks on civilians and city infrastructure to gain attention
and propagate the perverted ideologies that they affiliate with or advance
political agendas. As such, behind the scenes, there has been an everlasting
cat-and-mouse game between intelligence agencies around the world to
protect their people from further attacks whilst terrorist organizations
and foreign governments try to evade their sights to cause even more
widespread mayhem and destruction.
How should you run your intelligence agencies to secure national peace,
contain terror threats, and protect your people remains entirely up to your
discretion. However, remember that as a national agency, your actions are
still under the purview of your government.
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History of the Topic
From the dawn of time, intelligence has mattered. The knowledge of your
enemy’s location, the strength that your enemy possesses, the action that
your enemy intends to do is some of the few reasons why intelligence is
crucial. The history of intelligence is well preserved and can be
discovered throughout history. From ancient books such as Arthashastra
and Ping Fa (also known as “The Art of War”), the reliance of states and
military to intelligence confirms there was far more to war than just
battles.
While there are shreds of stories on how intelligence has developed from
time to time, the first development of a modern intelligence system can be
traced back to the first century BC during the reign of Julius Caesar. In the
beginning, it was Crassus ( a political patron of Julius Caesar and part of
the First Triumvirate) that established an intelligence network covering
the whole republic of Rome. Crassus designed a private intelligence
organization with a system that aims to warn him for any developments of a
growing potential adversary or any shift in the market forces that governed
the Republic's far-flung trade. Crassus whose position is essentially
crucial for Rome’s survival realizes the need for a surveillance system
where he can monitor and control the social situation of Rome. The system
was further developed by Julius Caesar, whose experience as a soldier
triggered him to developed Crassus’ system into the first real “national”
intelligence system. Julius Caesar realized the necessity of timely and
accurate information and the importance of fast and secure information to
keep his own plans secret. His tenure was colored by the notorious feature
of intelligence collection notably during his Gallic Wars campaign with
the most notable being the reconnaissance of Britain by his agent Gaius
Volusenus in 55 BC, just before Caesar’s landing in Kent. When Caesar was
murdered in 44 BC, the organization fall into the hand of Octavious and
later passed on to Caesar Augustus. Augustus later established an empire
network of communications which would later become the core of Rome’s
imperial secret service based on Crassus and Caesar’s system. This imperial
police and intelligence service designed to give an early warning of any
threats to the imperial throne, potential unrest, corruption or anything
that would disrupt the stability of the Roman Empire.
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In war and politics, obtaining information has always been of crucial
importance. It is with surprise that even with what the intelligence able
to provide, intelligence is sometimes underestimated and even forgotten as
a crucial element. Clausewitz, a famous military theorist, and war general
in his masterwork "On War" even treats intelligence with something
amounting to disdain. His dismissive conclusion seems to be rooted in what
he believed was the "fog of war". An assumption for great military theorists,
that most of the military intelligence is questionable at its best and
frequently late or wrong. While his assumption may not be wrong, the true
war commander knows that the element of surprise is one of the cardinal
principles in war. The heavy emphasis on intelligence as a foreknowledge
and the function of intelligence to prevent potential adversaries is a
significant reason why intelligence is crucial to state security.
One of the keys points that differ intelligence from any public information
is the cyclical process that made intelligence valuable. This cyclical
process that turns information to intelligence is also known as the
Intelligence Cycle.
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Figure 1: Intelligence Cycle (Source: On Intelligence, 2017)
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piece of concrete information or even in a worse scenario, where
intelligence agencies are unable to adapt in a condition where their
decision is crucial for the situation. While there is no clear parameter in
determining the difference between these two, the intelligence cycle makes
an effort to separate the two. Although it may not always be successful, the
intelligence cycle still provides a basic understanding of the situation
to any intelligence agency.
Intelligence Process
1. Direction
2. Collection
Once all the requirements and priorities have been determined, the
next step would be collecting information. During this step, all
information that is being collected would be separated accordingly
to the respective categories.
3. Collation
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4. Interpretation
5. Dissemination
When the Cold War broke out in the late 40s, gathering information became a
top priority for all states involved. As Soviet expansionism and Western
containment clashed in numerous areas around the world, both sides adopted
the policy of being “one step ahead of your enemies”. The reliance of both
superpowers and their allies on intelligence was mainly influenced by the
fact that all states are attempting to prevent a full nuclear war that would
have resulted in a mutually assured destruction. Due to the nature of the
Cold War and the concept of proxy warfare that is being played out by the
two superpowers, intelligence gathering has become a vital tool for the
state in pushing their country’s agenda.
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in the international arena. As a result, there was a massive effort in the
development of surveillance technology throughout this period. From the
development of high altitude aircraft for reconnaissance purposes to the
launching of surveillance satellites to monitor ground activities, a new
age of intelligence has emerged. The prominent example of how the
development of technology contributes to the Cold War can be seen during
the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. On 14 October 1962, a U-2 flew over the
western side of Cuba and brought back 928 pictures proving and confirming
the existence of an SS-4 nuclear missile. Later on, the US Marine Corps,
Navy and Air Force made a decision to use RF-8A Crusader, with its 5 cameras
and RF-101 reconnaissance equipment, to confirm the existence of these
missiles. The mission brought back some of the most spectacular high-
quality images which was brought by the US as evidence during the United
Nations Security Council meeting. The crisis that occurred in 1962 is a
transitional point that changed the landscape of modern intelligence,
particularly from the deployment of agents on the ground to the use of more
technical solutions. In particular, photography showed that technical
intelligence could fill a vital intelligence gap that HUMINT may not be
able to close out.
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Reorganization Process in 1976 that overthrew the elected President Isabel
Peron in Argentina.
1. HUMINT
2. SIGINT
Signal Intelligence or SIGINT is an intelligence-gathering
discipline consisting of several sub-disciplines such as
communication intelligence (COMINT), electronic intelligence
(ELINT), Direction Finding, Signal Detection, cryptanalysis, and
Traffic Analysis. From monitoring a certain line of communication to
collecting information that is concerning, SIGINT has developed to
be one of the most important and precarious disciplines. Given the
increased usage of radio communication, SIGINT has become a critical
tool in acquiring information on the enemy. The source of SIGINT can
range from intercepting radio transmissions, to locating signal
sources.
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3. IMINT
Imagery Intelligence or IMINT is an intelligence-gathering
discipline that mainly uses aerial photography and satellite to
collect information. During the Cold War, IMINT developed rapidly
due to the involvement of two superpowers that emphasized the need
for a large quantity of information. The development of technologies
within this discipline mainly triggered by the need for “force
multiplier”, an idea that certain factors such as information, in this
case, would contribute critically for the end result of any war. From
airborne reconnaissance to the development of satellite, the
development of IMINT provided a new challenge and landscape for
intelligence to deal with.
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Scope of Debate
As the world enters the 21st Century, changes in the political landscape and
technological advancement results in multiple new challenges for the
intelligence community.
Clandestine Operations
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War had officially ended,
marking a shift in foreign policy for many nations. After decades of rivalry
between two great superpowers, one side had emerged victorious, ending an
era where there are clear ‘sides’ to pick. As such, there are no longer clearly
defined threats such as ‘the Soviet Bloc’ to direct intelligence operations
towards.
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Rise of Non-State Actors
Though the threat from other foreign powers may be reduced, there has been
a noted increase in number of bombings and attacks by Non-State Actors,
groups or individuals that are not strongly affiliated to any one nation.
These attacks have varied levels of planning and support, ranging from mass
shootings to car bombs and even chemical attacks. While there may be
speculations of potential foreign powers secretly supporting some of these
groups, the majority of these individuals or organisations have so far been
found to have been formed without the support of governments. It is unclear
how Non-State Actors challenge national security, as there has been little
to no concerted effort in investigating them.
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Past Actions
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Liberation Tigers Sinhalese of Aluth North Central Killed 127
of Tamil Eelam Oya (Habanara) Province, Sri civilians
(LTTE) District Lanka
(17 April 1987)
Brief Details: LTTE is a political and militant group based in the northeastern
part of Sri Lanka, founded in 1975. Their goal is to have an independent country
for the Tamils within the region to ensure their rights that were marginalized.
Habanara Massacre was designed to murder Sinhalese people and is one of the
deadliest attacks done by the terrorist group. LTTE only sent a team of cadres
armed with automatic rifles and clubs.
Brief Details: El Sayyid Nosair was born in Port Said, Egypt, 16 November 1955. He
immigrated to the U.S. in 1981 and disliked the American culture which he
perceived as “moral corruption”. Nosair is considered to be the first Islamist
Jihadist to ever attacked the U.S. He successfully assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane,
the founder of the Jewish Defense League in the U.S., by point-blank shooting him
during his speech in Manhattan hotel ballroom.
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Pakistan, 1988 during the Soviet-Afghan war by Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam,
and other Arabian volunteers. This attack targeted the U.S. troops that were
heading to Somalia for Operation Restore Hope - and is considered as the first
attack against the United States. No troops were harmed, but tourists and hotel
workers were killed and injured during the attacks.
Ramzi Yousef and World Trade New York City, The 6 were killed and
Coalition Center United States over 1,000 were
(26 February 1993) injured
Brief Details: Ramzi Yousef was born in Kuwait, 27 April 1968 - a senior member of
Al-Qaeda who mastered electrical engineering from Swansea University, UK. He
detonated a car bomb underneath Tower One of the World Trade Center in New York
City, with the intention to blow the Tower One so it will fall and hit Tower Two
using his urea nitrate-hydrogen gas enhanced bomb. Despite failure from doing
so, he injured over 1,000 people and killed six. Afterward, he sent a letter to The
New York Times to declare his responsibility and his demands for the U.S. to cut
ties with Israel and not interfering with the business of Middle East countries.
He also threatened the U.S. that there will be more attacks should the demands are
not met.
Brief Details: Aum Shinrikyo (Aleph) is a Japanese doomsday cult founded by Shoko
Asahara in 1984 who made his religion by combining teachigns from Indian
Buddhism, Tibetan Buddhism, Hinduism, Christian Book of Revelation, Yoga, and
writings of Nostradamus. They attacked three lines of Tokyo Subway during rush
hour through five coordinates attacks, resulting in 13 deaths and harmed around
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1,000. This attack is considered as the deadliest terror in Japan by modern
definitions.
Timothy McVeigh Oklahoma City Oklahoma, The 168 were killed and
and Terry Nichols Bombing United States over 680 were
(19 April 1995) injured
Brief Details: Oklahoma city bombing was the deadliest domestic terror ever
occured in the United States. With Alfred P. Murray Building as the target,
Timothy McVeigh and Terry Nichols exploded a rental truck full of explosives
parked at the building. Timothy McVeigh was a Gulf War veteran who held a grudge
against the U.S. Federal Government regarding their decisions on Ruby Ridge
incident in 1992 and the Waco Siege in 1993. He met with Terry Nichols on a basic
training for the U.S. Army.
Brief Details: CRI was founded in 1991 - a secessionist group that formed the
government of Chechen Republic. They were fighting against the Russian
government during the First Russian - Chechen War (1994 - 1996) with them as the
victor, and currently in the middle of another war against the Russian
Federation. Led by Salman Raduyev, CRI sent their guerillas to storm a military
airbase near Kizlyar, Dagestan, and ended up kidnapping thousands of civilians.
Brief Details: LeT was founded in 1987 by Hafiz Saeed, Abdullah Azzam, and Zafar
Iqbal. Funded by Osama bin Laden, LeT is one of the largest and most active
Pakistan-based Islamist militant organisations in South Asia. Their goal is to
unify Jammu and Kashmir to become the part of Pakistan and to spread pan-Islamism
in South Asia. During the Wandhama massacre, gunmen dressed as Indian soldiers
were sent to kill men, women and children, and destroy a Hindu temple and a house
during the holiest night of the month of Ramzan; Shab-e-Qadar.
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Al Ummah Coimbatore Coimbatore, India 58 were killed and
Bombings (14 February 1998) over 200 were
injured
Brief Details: Al Ummah is a terrorist group based in Tamil Nadu, India, founded
in 1993 by Syed Ahmed Basha and Jawahirullah in Coimbatore. During the
Coimbatore bombings, Al Ummah carried out 12 bomb attacks in 11 spots using time
bombs concealead in cars, motorbikes, bicycles, fruit carts, two-wheelers, and etc.
Some bombs were successfully defused by the National Security Guards and Tamil
Nadu Commando School. The main target for the attacks was the leader of Bharatiya
Janata Party, L.K. Advani.
Al-Qaeda & The Embassies of Nairobi, Kenya & 224 were killed and
Egyptian Islamic the United States Dar es Salaam, over 4,000 were
Jihad (EIJ) in Nairobi, Kenya, Tanzania injured
and Dar es Salaam, (7 August 1998)
Tanzania
Brief Details: EIJ is and Egyptian Islamist terrorist group, started to active
since the late 1970s and is closely related to the Al-Qaeda. Their goal is to build
an Islamic state by toppling down the Egyptian government. However, they later
operated to oppose the American and Israeli interests in Egypt and abroad.
Collaborated with Al-Qaeda, EIJ attacked the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya
by simultaneously detonating truck bombs. The triggering point for this attack
was to sought vengeance over the arrest and torture of EIJ members by the U.S.
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crops - which was majorly funded by USAID.
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Current Situation
At this point in time, there have been multiple terror attacks across the
globe-spanning multiple countries. While such attacks are not
unprecedented, there has been an increase in frequency of such attacks. At
this point of time the Board is still collating more information on them
and conducting preliminary analysis on whether these were conducted by
specific states or non-state actors. This analysis report will be provided
to you closer to the meeting.
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Key Questions
How can the intelligence agencies work together to tackle the threat of
attacks by Non-State Actors, considering that there can be diverging
national agendas?
What are the problems that intelligence agencies will face when
transitioning into the digital age?
What are the possible measures that can be taken to allow information
sharing while safeguarding national security?
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Bibliography
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