Beruflich Dokumente
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SOCIAL
NETWORK
USERS
eMarketer’s Estimates and
Forecast for 2016–2021
JULY 2017
Corey McNair
Contributors: Marcus Johnson, Cindy Liu, Monica Peart
Read this on
eMarketer for iPad
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND
FORECAST FOR 2016–2021
eMarketer estimates 2.46 billion people will use a social network at least once a month in 2017, which will represent
one-third of the world’s population and an 8.2% gain over 2016.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
WORLDWIDE OVERVIEW
This year, 2.46 billion individuals, or one-third of the
global population and 71.0% of internet users, will
access social networks at least once a month, up 8.2%
from 2016. Mobile phone adoption and expanding
mobile coverage will drive that growth.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
FACEBOOK USERS TWITTER USERS
Nearly 1.50 billion people, or roughly 61% of social Twitter’s user base will total 260.4 million people
network users and one-fifth of the world’s population, will worldwide in 2017, capturing 10.6% of social network
access Facebook at least monthly this year. This estimate, users and 3.5% of the world’s population. Its user base
higher than what eMarketer previously forecast, is based will increase 4.0% this year, higher than eMarketer
on higher-than-anticipated user growth. previously estimated due to uptake in Brazil, France,
Germany and Japan.
Facebook activity via mobile devices has become so Twitter is trying to stave off slowing growth by investing
pervasive that the company has stopped breaking out in video content. At the May 2017 NewFronts annual
mobile users in their quarterly earnings as of Q1 2017. marketing conference, Twitter announced 16 live
eMarketer expects 87.2% of Facebook users (1.31 billion streaming deals, including pacts with the PGA Tour,
people) will use a mobile phone to access the platform BuzzFeed and Viacom. Building off its presence as a news
this year. By 2021, mobile’s share of Facebook users will delivery platform, Twitter also announced a partnership
reach 91.7%. with Bloomberg to stream news 24/7 year-round.
Facebook Lite, a simplified version of its app for Android However, beyond North America, Japan, Mexico and
devices that uses less data, has enabled access to the the UK, Twitter is not that popular. Twitter user growth is
platform in developing markets. The app is expected to expected to grow fastest in the Middle East and Africa
be a contributor to growth, mostly in the Middle East and throughout the forecast, primarily due to its small base.
Africa and less urbanized parts of Asia-Pacific.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
ASIA-PACIFIC activity in the world. eMarketer predicts Malaysia and the
Philippines will have some of the world’s highest social
network penetration rates among internet users in 2017,
For the first time in 2017, one-third of the population
at 94.0% and 86.7%, respectively. Indonesia, Thailand and
in Asia-Pacific—or 1.36 billion people—will use a Vietnam will overindex as well.
social network at least once per month. Roughly four
in five of these social network users will use a mobile In advanced digital markets like Australia, Hong Kong,
device to visit a social site. New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan, at least
three-quarters of internet users will use social networks
at least once a month. Penetration rates will be lowest
in Japan and South Korea, where internet users spend
more time on messaging apps like Line and KakaoTalk,
respectively. Japan’s aging population will result in just
over half of internet users (51.0%) accessing social
networks regularly, while two-thirds of internet users in
South Korea will use social networks monthly.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
China’s social network landscape is unlike any other
country due to the government’s ban on Facebook,
Instagram, Twitter and other platforms. In their
place, homegrown messaging platform WeChat is
overwhelmingly the most popular social network in the
country. China will account for 46.1% of social network
users in Asia-Pacific this year, totaling 626.0 million
people. At least four out of five (81.1%) internet users will
log in to their social media account monthly in 2017. The
user base is expected to grow steadily throughout the
forecast period, spurred by increased mobile adoption and
older generations making their way onto platforms.
FACEBOOK USERS internet users who gain access via affordable mobile
phone and data plans. More than 90% of Facebook
■■ Like most of the rest of the world, Facebook is a fixture users in Southeast Asia will access the network via
for most countries in Asia-Pacific. eMarketer estimates mobile phone regularly in 2017. Facebook will be nearly
at least 90% of social network users in Australia, synonymous with mobile in Indonesia, Malaysia and
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, the the Philippines, where 97.2%, 94.3% and 96.1% of
Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam will Facebook users will access the site from a mobile
access Facebook this year. Though some competing phone, respectively.
apps in those countries are growing large audiences,
they have yet to catch up to Facebook. Note that China ■■ Facebook is also widely used in more mature digital
is not included in eMarketer’s estimates for Facebook markets like Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, which
usage because the platform is blocked there. already have high adoption among younger internet
users. Older generations are increasingly signing up to
connect with family and friends, and this will primarily
drive growth in these countries.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
■■ Facebook’s penetration rate among social network Twitter audience. Twitter is more popular than Facebook
users in Japan (40.0%) and South Korea (49.7%) in Japan: 47.3% of social network users will access the
will be depressed due to a general preference for platform compared with Facebook’s 40.0%. Because
messaging apps Line and KakaoTalk, respectively. In Twitter enables users to be anonymous if they want to
Japan, Facebook is viewed primarily as a professional be, it is popular in a nation where people particularly
networking platform, and tends to skew older in value their privacy. Additionally, the use of Kanji in
audience. This was one motivating factor for Facebook’s Japan means that much more can be expressed in a
unsuccessful bid for popular face filter app Snow—to Tweet than can be expressed in English. eMarketer has
connect with younger users. increased its estimates for Twitter users in Japan based
on new data reporting growing penetration.
■■ India will be home to 182.9 million Facebook users
in 2017, more than any other country in Asia-Pacific. ■■ Only 4.2% of social network users in India will access
However, only 69.9% of social network users will Twitter this year, but its 11.0 million users will give it the
access the platform this year—the third lowest second largest user base in the region. Twitter adoption
penetration rate among Asia-Pacific markets covered will be faster in India than the rest of Asia-Pacific,
by eMarketer. Initial uptake of Facebook was hindered growing 13.5% by the end of the year. A key growth
by high-bandwidth demands—especially for mobile factor has been the launch of Twitter Seva, a service
devices. In place of Facebook, many internet users that monitors and responds to tweets sent by users
in India relied on WeChat and its bandwidth-saving about government-related grievances. Video has also
light messaging service. Most rural areas have since proven popular with users. eMarketer estimates that
improved their bandwidth infrastructure, but WeChat is Twitter will maintain steady growth in India, increasing
still popular in the market. Following the rollout of the by 11.1% in 2018.
data-friendly Facebook Lite, overall adoption has picked
■■ In April 2017, Twitter launched a less data-intensive
up and will drive user growth of 20.0% this year.
version of its social network called Twitter Lite.
Twitter’s goal is to increase penetration in emerging
TWITTER USERS markets with slower internet connections like India and
Indonesia. Because of this, steady growth will continue
■■ Asia-Pacific is one of the most important regions to
in these markets.
overall Twitter user growth. eMarketer estimates Asia-
Pacific’s Twitter audience will total 75.2 million this
year, up 5.7% from 2016. This represents the largest
user base in the world and the second fastest regional
growth rate (after the Middle East and Africa).
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE FACEBOOK USERS
Over three-quarters of internet users in Central and ■■ With the major exception of Russia, Facebook’s
Eastern Europe will access social networks regularly penetration rate of internet users in Central and Eastern
this year. Of those social network users, 73.2% will Europe is rather high, at 58.7%. Though the platform’s
log on via mobile devices. While VK is dominant in overall regional penetration rate of 41.3% is depressed
Russia, Facebook remains the leading social platform by VK’s presence in Russia, 107.1 million people in
for the rest of the region. Central and Eastern Europe will access Facebook
this year.
TWITTER USERS
■■ Twitter has yet to gain traction in Central and Eastern
eMarketer estimates Russia will account for 38.0% of Europe. Just 8.4 million people, or 3.3% of internet
social network users in Central and Eastern Europe this users, will access the platform. Of that audience,
year. Among internet users in Russia, 79.5% will access Russia will account for nearly half (48.9%).
social platforms at least monthly. In recent years, mobile
internet access has been a driver of social network ■■ The number of Twitter users in Central and Eastern
activity. In fact, Russia’s mobile social network user Europe is expected to remain nearly flat throughout
growth rate—14.5%—will be the highest in all of Europe the forecast period. Twitter’s user base in the region
this year. However, most new mobile users are not new will expand by 2.4% this year. By 2021, user growth
to social networks in general: overall social network user
will fall below 1.0% in both Central and Eastern Europe
growth in Russia will be 3.6%.
and Russia.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
LATIN AMERICA
Roughly four in five internet users in Latin America—
more than 290 million people—will visit a social
network at least once a month this year, giving it the
highest penetration rate of any region included in
eMarketer’s forecast. Of those social network users,
over 90% will gain access via mobile devices.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
■■ This year, for the first time, more than half the
THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
population (51.7%) in Mexico will use Facebook.
Spurred by smartphone uptake, Facebook will see The social network audience in the Middle East
steady user growth of 9.1% in the country to reach and Africa will continue to grow rapidly. eMarketer
63.9 million people in 2017. projects social network users in the region will
climb to 197.6 million this year from 174.7 million in
■■ In Argentina, Facebook is almost synonymous with
2016. The region will also have the fastest growth
social networking—98.8% of social network users
worldwide in 2017, climbing 13.1%.
will access Facebook monthly this year, the highest
percentage in the region. Argentina is one of the more
urbanized countries in Latin America with widespread
mobile coverage: 53.1% of the population, or 23.5
million people, will use Facebook regularly this year.
TWITTER USERS
■■ Twitter has established a presence in Latin America as
a source for breaking news. eMarketer expects one-
quarter of social network users in the region, or 72.7
million people, will access Twitter on a monthly basis. Social network adoption in the Middle East and Africa largely
follows internet access growth, so social network activity
Like Facebook, most Twitter activity will occur in urban
will come from countries with higher telecom development,
areas with mobile broadband coverage.
which tend to be more urbanized and have widespread
mobile infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates
■■ Twitter’s user growth of 4.7% in Latin America will be
(UAE) and (to a lesser degree) Egypt have seen notable
low relative to Facebook and overall social media in
growth in 3G and 4G network coverage. Roughly 73% of
2017. According to Fiamma Zarife, managing director of internet users in both Saudi Arabia and the UAE will use a
Twitter Brazil, the country was the third fastest growing social network at least monthly this year, while 78.3% of
market for the company in 2016. eMarketer expects internet users in Egypt will do so. All other countries in the
Twitter user growth in Latin America will grow fastest region will have a social network penetration rate among
in Brazil (5.1%), driven by smartphone adoption. By internet users below 70% throughout the forecast period. In
2017, 62.0% of internet users in the region will access social
2021, Twitter user growth in Latin America will slow to
media regularly.
2.0%—but still higher than worldwide growth of 1.8%.
Social networking via mobile phones has grown
■■ Mexico, which was a relatively early adopter of Twitter,
dramatically over the past few years. In 2013, 63.2% of
will have the highest share of Twitter usage in Latin social networkers in the Middle East and Africa used a
America. This year, 36.3% of Mexico’s social network mobile device to access their accounts—by 2017, this
users will use Twitter regularly. Argentina will not be share will reach 84.1%.
too far behind, at 31.3%, followed by Brazil with 27.2%.
The uncertain political climate in much of the region
Other countries in Latin America (12.9%) will lower
has fueled social use, enabling people to share stories
Twitter’s social network user penetration rate in the
and keep up with the news. According to a March 2017
region as a result of competing apps. ASDA’A Burson-Marsteller survey of adults ages 18 to 24
in 16 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, 35%
of respondents identified Facebook as a daily source for
news, while 31% cited online news and 30% said TV
news channels. Not only are young adults in the region
getting information from Facebook, but 64% also said
that they use Facebook to share news articles.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10
FACEBOOK USERS NORTH AMERICA
■■ Facebook is the leading social network platform in all Social networking will be more common among
major markets in the Middle East and Africa. eMarketer individuals in North America than the rest of the
estimates 184.3 million people will have an active world. Over 212 million people will log on to social
Facebook account this year, representing 57.8% of networks this year, amounting to 70.0% of internet
internet users. users and 58.5% of the population.
TWITTER USERS
■■ The Middle East and Africa will continue to have the
smallest Twitter audience in the world. Just 6.3 million
people will use the network at least monthly this year,
representing 3.2% of the region’s social network users
and 0.4% of the population. The number of US social network users will reach
191.1 million in 2017, while Canada’s total will hit 21.2
■■ Twitter is primarily accessed via mobile devices in the
million. For the first time, more than two-thirds of the
Middle East and Africa. It’s not a coincidence, then, that US population (67.0%) will be social network users,
most Twitter activity will take place in urban areas with whereas Canada’s share will near 58%. Growth will stay
developed mobile broadband infrastructure, particularly in the low single digits for each country throughout the
those in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. forecast period.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
Mobile-driven Snapchat has garnered a considerable ■■ Twitter is more popular in Canada than the US. One-
audience in the US. More than 70 million people will quarter of internet users and 35.2% of social network
use the platform regularly in 2017, accounting for one- users in Canada will use Twitter regularly in 2017. In
quarter of internet users (25.8%) and mobile phone users
the US, these figures will reach 19.5% and 27.9%,
(26.6%). Young generations have taken to its combination
respectively. Twitter has tended to be used more
of visuals and chatting. Given its potential for growth
among older social network users, the user base in the frequently as a news source in Canada than the US.
US will expand 14.2% this year.
■■ Twitter recently announced a slate of video content
partnerships to help drive platform engagements.
TWITTER USERS
■■ Twitter will account for less than one-third (31.9%) of
Facebook’s total users in North America this year. At
60.7 million people, this represents 28.6% of social
network users in the region—the highest share in
the world.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
WESTERN EUROPE Rates of mobile social networking vary throughout
Western Europe, but usage is generally high. Over 84%
of social network users in the region will use a mobile
Western Europe will have 207.1 million social network
phone to access those sites this year. Italy will have the
users in 2017, representing 63.4% of internet users. highest share of mobile social network users (93.5%)—
Germany and the UK will lead the way in the region, the country generally indexes high on mobile activities
with 38.2 million and 36.6 million social network like messaging, and young adults there are heavy social
users, respectively. media users. Rates in Denmark and France will be nearly
as high, at 92.6% and 91.0%, while Finland and Germany
will have the lowest rates in the region.
FACEBOOK USERS
■■ The number of Facebook users in Western Europe will
hit 175.4 million in 2017. Although still used by 84.7% of
social network users, the platform has endured young
audiences departing for rival networks and messaging
apps like WhatsApp. It also faces stiff competition from
Twitter in the UK. Facebook’s usage rate is highest in
Italy, where 97.2% of social network users will access it
at least monthly this year. Aside from Finland, Germany
and the Netherlands, the percentage of Facebook users
among social network users will be above 88% for all
countries in the region.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13
TWITTER USERS
■■ In 2017, Western Europe will have 37.1 million Twitter
users. Twitter has a modest presence in the region,
accounting for 17.9% of social network users and 8.7%
of the population. Growth will be minor, increasing
2.4% this year.
EDITORIAL AND
PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
Michael Balletti Copy Editor
Katie Hamblin Chart Editorial Manager
Dana Hill Director of Production
■■ Western Europe will have the second lowest growth
Eden Kelley Chart Editor
rate of Facebook users after North America, at 3.0%.
Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
Spain will have the fastest growth rate in the region, at Heather Price Managing Editor, Reports
3.9%, fueled by older audiences signing up. John Rambow Executive Editor, Reports
Erica Walker Copy Editor
■■ Over half of people in Denmark, Norway and Sweden
will use Facebook this year, followed closely by the
UK, at 49.3%. Germany will have a markedly lower
penetration rate, with 31.7% of its population using the
platform. Just over 41% of individuals in the region will
use Facebook at least monthly this year.
WORLDWIDE SOCIAL NETWORK USERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
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