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Climate Projections for

the Northeast Region


Fort St. John Council Presentation

25 November 2019
Climate Change
Key Concepts
Future temperature change in BC
Climate varies by location & with time
Climate varies by location & with time
Local Projections
The Northeast Region and Fort St. John
General Trends
• Hotter temperatures,
• more precipitation
• shifting hydrology regimes

Precipitation
• More rain in autumn and spring, summers still the wettest
• More intense storms
Temperatures
• Higher temperatures year round
• Longer growing season length
Snowpack and Streamflow
• Earlier peaks, higher winter flows, drier summers, less
snowpack
Increased average precipitation in all seasons

SON precipitation: ~140 mm for 1971-2000  +15% (+6% to +24%) in 2050s


Increased precipitation on wet days

“RX5day” wettest 5-days period /year: ~50 mm for 1971-2000  +17% (+7% to +30%) in 2050s
Coldest days less cold

“TXN” coldest day in winter -29°C 1971-2000  +6.2°C (+5.0°C to +8.0°C) in 2050s
Fewer cold days

“Ice days” annual # daytime highs below freezing -~120 1971-2000  -19% (-25% to -12%) in 2050s
Increased hot days

Days above 25°C (lowlands) 16 days for 1971-2000  40 (25 to 57) days in 2050s
Longer growing season

“GSL” growing season length: 160 days for 1971-2000  189 (179 to 201) days in 2050s
Temperature related key messages
• By the 2080s, summer temperatures in Fort St. John are
projected to be to those of Kelowna’s past summers (1980s)
Future streamflow: Peace River @ Taylor
Fraser River at Hope

Lower
and
earlier
peak
Higher in
winter Lower in
summer

Statistical emulation of streamflow projections from a distributed hydrological model: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections for British
Columbia
Water Resources Research
Volume 50, Issue 11, pages 8907-8926, 19 NOV 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014WR015279
Overview of Projections
Past 2050 2080
Days over 25°C 12 days 40 days 60 days
Days over 30°C 1 day 10 days 21 days
Coldest winter day -29°C -23°C -19°C
Growing season length 160 days 189 days 205 days
Spring precipitation 111 mm 19% 29%
Autumn precipitation 142 mm 15% 30%
Wettest day of the year 27 mm 18% 23%
Snowpack (April 1) PR 383 mm -11% -25%
Snowpack (May 1) PR 360 mm -38% -62%
Thank you

Gillian Aubie Vines