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Chapter 1
Outline
Table of Contents
What is Operations Management...............................................................................................................2
Management...........................................................................................................................................2
Operations...............................................................................................................................................2
OM Activities...........................................................................................................................................2
Importance..............................................................................................................................................3
New Challenges in OM............................................................................................................................3
3 Basic Functions.........................................................................................................................................3
Operations Function................................................................................................................................4
Types of Operations................................................................................................................................4
Goods-Service Continuum.......................................................................................................................5
Operations Interfaces..............................................................................................................................5
Scope...........................................................................................................................................................5
Differentiating Features of Operating Systems............................................................................................5
Characteristics of Operations..................................................................................................................6
Characteristics of Manufacturing Operations..........................................................................................6
Characteristics of Service Operations......................................................................................................7
Features of Operating System.................................................................................................................7
Product standardization:.....................................................................................................................7
Types of Process..................................................................................................................................7
Product Process Matrix...........................................................................................................................7
Goods v. Services.....................................................................................................................................8
Output.................................................................................................................................................8
Customer contact................................................................................................................................8
Uniformity of input..............................................................................................................................8
Labour content....................................................................................................................................8
Quantity of Output..............................................................................................................................8
Measurement of Productivity..............................................................................................................9
Quality assurance................................................................................................................................9
Operations Manager and the Management Process...................................................................................9
Job Satisfaction........................................................................................................................................9
Operations Manager and the Tools Used in Decision Making...................................................................10
Models..................................................................................................................................................11
Quantitative Approaches.......................................................................................................................11
Pareto Phenomenon.............................................................................................................................11
Analysis of Trade offs.............................................................................................................................12
Ethical Issues.........................................................................................................................................12
The Historical Evolution.............................................................................................................................12
Major Historical Developments.............................................................................................................13
Trends in Business.....................................................................................................................................15
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Operations
Those activities within an organization that are directly related to providing g/s to customers
OM Activities
ĀȀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ̀̀ĀȀ⸀ĀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ0 Forecasting
ĀȀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ̀̀ĀȀ⸀ĀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ1 Capacity
planning
ĀȀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ̀̀ĀȀ⸀ĀЀĀȀĀ⸀ĀȀĀȀȀ⸀ĀĀȀȀ⸀ĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀĀᜀ2 Scheduling
23 Managing inventories
24 Assuring quality
25 Motivating employees
26 Where to locate facilities
Importance
0 Core of all business activings
1 Large percentage of company’s expenses
2 Large number of jobs
0 Purchasing
1 Quality
2 Planning
3 Scheduling
4 Inventory
1 Interrelated with other areas of business
2 We want to know how g/s are produced in order to be able to produce them better
3 VALUE ADDED
0 The ifference between the cost of inputs v. the price of outputs
O
New Challenges in OM
0 Global focus
0 From local or national focus
1 Just-in-time
0 From batch shipment
2 Supply-chain partnering
0 From low bid purchasing
3 Rapid product, development alliances
0 From lengthy product development
4 Mass customization
0 From standard products
5 Empowered employees, teams
0 From job specialization
3 Basic Functions
1. Operations
0 Creation of goods
0 Finance
0 Provision of funds
1 Economic analysis of investment proposal
1 Marketing
0 Promoting
Operations Function
23 Inputs: land, labour, capital
Feedback
24 Transformation process
a. Control
Feedback
The dollar amount added to the product at each stage of production (harvest, transport,
produce)
Types of Operations
23 Good producing
23 Farming, mining
24 Storage/transport
23 Warehousing, trucking
25 Exchange
23 Retailing, wholesaling
26 Entertainment
23 Films, radio
27 Communication
23 Newspaper, radio
Goods-Service Continuum
5888 Goods content; y-axis
5889 Service content; x-axis
Operations Interfaces
23 Maintenance
24 MIS
25 Public relations
26 Personnel
27 Accounting
28 Purchasing
29 Distribution
30 Industrial engineering
Scope
Creation of goods and services involves:
5888 Designing
decisions O
Capacity O
Location O
Equipment
5889 Operating
decisions O
Planning O
Execution O
Controlling
5890 System design is most important because many of the parameters of the system
operation are decided by design
Characteristics of Operations
0 Ops often accounts for the largest share of personnel/fixed capital investment
I Ops often run round-the-clock and must be managed continuously
II Ops are often complex systems with state of the art tech
IIIThe management of ops in info intensive and requires extensive data collection and analysis
IV Ops nature is systematic – even the small problems can have far-reaching negative effects
V They only call you when something goes wrong
0 Batch process
1 Assembly line
2 Continuous process
Types of Process
23 Large scale project
23 Launching a space shuttle
24 Continuous process
23 Oil refining
Product Process
Matrix
Low
High Variety Variety
Volume
Mass Continuous
customization Production
Mass
Production
Batch
Production/Job
Shop
Project/Unit
Production
Degree of standardization
In order of highest volume (and lowest variety) to lowest volume (and highest variety)
23 Continuous production
24 Mass production
25 Batch production/job shop
26 Project/Unit Production
Goods v. Services
Output
5888 Goods: Tangible
5889 Services: Intangible
Customer contact
23 Goods: Low
24 Services: High
Uniformity of input
23 Goods: High
24 Services: Low
Labour content
5888 Goods: Low
5889 Services: High
Quantity of Output
5888 Goods: High
5889 Services: Low
Measurement of Productivity
5888 Goods: Easy
5889 Services: Difficult
Quality assurance
23 Goods: Easy
24 Services: Difficult
Job Satisfaction
In order from lowest satisfaction to highest satisfaction:
5888 Models
5888 Definition
23 An abstraction of reality, a simplified representation of something
5889 They must ignore the unimportant details so that attention can be
concentrated on the most important aspects
5890 For each model, try to learn
23 Its purpose
24 How it is used to generate results
25 How these results are interpreted and used
26 What assumptions and limitations apply?
5889 Quantitative approaches
5888 Linear programming – widely used for optimum allocation of scarce resources
5889 Queuing technique – useful for analzung situations in which waiting lines form
5890 Inventory techniques – widely sued to control inventories
5891 Project scheduling – i.e.: PERT, useful for planning, coordination and
controlling large scale projects
5892 Forecasting – widely used to forecast demand
5893 Statistical techniques – currently used in many areas of decision making,
including quality control
5890 Trade offs
5888 Factoring rating approach
5891 Systems approach
5888 The output and the objective of the organization as a whole takes
precedence over those of any one subsystem
5889 System
23 A set of interrelated parts that msut work together
5890 The systems approach is essential whenever something is designed,
redesigned, implemented, improved, or otherwise changed
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23 Establishing priorities
23 Pareto phenomenon
5888 A few factors account for a high percentage of results achieved
24 Ethics
23 Workers safety
24 Product safety
25 Clean environment
26 Impact the community
Models
Abstraction of reality
23 Physical
24 Schematic
25 Mathematics
23 Models of cost
24 Revenue
25 Profit
Quantitative Approaches
5888 Linear programming
5889 Queuing techniques
5890 Inventory techniques
5891 Project techniques
5892 Statistical techniques
Pareto Phenomenon
23 Also known as the “Pareto principle”, “80-20 rule”
th
24 Pareto was a 19 century economist. He observed that …
23 80% of the wealth of Italy was held by 2-% of the citizens (sometimes referred
to as the vital few)
24 Only 20% of the wealth was held by 80% of the population (the trivial many)
25 This type of relationship was observed in a wide range of solutions, including ops”
23 In quality management, it is often observed that 80% of the defects result from
a small number of defects (the vital few)
24 In inventory management, a small number of inventory items (the vital few)
account for the lion’s share of the inventory investment
5888 This idea can be used to help us establish priorities for management actions
5889 How do we identify the vital few?
Ethical Issues
5888 Financial statements
5889 Workers safety
5890 Product safety
5891 Quality
5892 Environment
5893 Community
5894 Hiring/firing workers
Trends in Business
23 Internet and e-commerce
23 E-comerce
5888 Use of the internet and other electronic networks to buy/sell goods and
services
24 Management technology
25 Globalization
26 Management of supply chains
23 Outsourcing
24 Supply chain
5888 A sequence of activities that involve producing/services
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Competitiveness,
Strategic Planning,
Productivity
5888 List and briefly discuss the primary ways that organizations compete
5888 Key purchasing criteria
23 Price
24 Quality
25 Variety
26 Timeliness
5889 Competitive properties
23 Cost
24 Quality
25 Flexibility
26 Delivery
5889 Describe a company’s
5888 Strategic planning
23 Getting Started
5888 Scope of the business
5889 Is the current strategy working?
5890 What is the issues/problems?
24 Analyze the industry and source of competitive advantages (i.e.: earnings above-
average profit)
5888 How intense is the competitive rivalry?
5889 How large is the bargaining power of suppliers?
5890 How easily can a substitute good or service be developed?
5891 How large is the bargaining power of customers?
5892 How would trends and changes (demand, tech, regulation,
etc.) affect the industry?
5893 How can generic strategies of niche market, low cost, and
product differentiation be used in this industry?
5894 How can we gain and sustain competitive advantage?
25 Analyze customers
5888 What are the market segments?
5889 What are customers’ key purchasing criteria?
26 Analyze competitors (established rivals)
5888 What are the strategies and positions (i.e.: relative
competitive comparison of products) of the winners and
losers?
5889 Why do competitors behave as they do? Can we influence
them?
5890 How has their strategy been changing through time?
27 Assess relative position
5888 What are our products’ strengths and weaknesses as
customers see them? Profitability?
28 Assess the state of our business
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5888 Output/machine
5889 Output/material
5890 Output/energy
23 More than one input – multlifactor
5888 Output/(labour+machine)
5889 Output/(labour+materials+energy)
24 All inputs and total measure
5888 Goods and service produced/all inputs used to
product them b. NOTE: Partial productivity (single input) is of the greatest use
Table of Contents
Competitiveness..........................................................................................................................................4
Key purchasing criteria............................................................................................................................4
Price....................................................................................................................................................4
Quality.................................................................................................................................................4
Variety.................................................................................................................................................4
Timeliness...........................................................................................................................................4
Complex Orders.......................................................................................................................................4
Competitive Priorities..............................................................................................................................4
Strategic Planning........................................................................................................................................5
Detailed Strategic Planning Process.........................................................................................................5
Missions, Vision, Values...........................................................................................................................6
Goals.......................................................................................................................................................7
Strategies, Tactics and Action Plans.........................................................................................................7
Operations Strategy.................................................................................................................................7
Strategic Decision Categories..............................................................................................................7
Generic Ops Strategy...................................................................................................................................9
Productivity...............................................................................................................................................10
5888 Competitiveness
5888 Ability and performance of an organization in the marketplace, compared
to that of similar goods and services
5889 Strategy
23 The long term plans that determine the direction an organization takes to become (or
remain) competitive
24 Strategic Planning
23 The managerial process that determines a strategy for the organization
Competitiveness
Key purchasing criteria
23 The major demands influencing price, quality, variety and timeliness
24 Value = (Quality*Variety*Timeliness)/Price
Price
5888 If all of the other factors are equal, the customer will buy at
the lowest price
Quality
5888 Determined
by O Design
O Material
O Workmanship
O Performance O
Consistency
5889 Better for specification
Variety
5888 Choice of models/options
5889 Wider variety, wider range of customization
Timeliness
5888 Availability to customers, i.e.:
23 JIT, becoming available quickly
Complex Orders
5888 2 categories of purchasing critieria
5888 Order Qualifiers
23 Purchasing criteria that a customer perceive as minimum standards of
acceptability to be considered for purchase
24 May not be sufficient to get customers to purchase from a firm
5889 Order Winners
23 Purchasing criteria that cause the firm to be perceived as better than the
competition
Competitive Priorities
23 Important to operations characteristics:
O Cost
Strategic Planning
Detailed Strategic Planning Process
5888 Getting Started
5888 Scope of the business
5889 Is the current strategy working?
5890 What is the issues/problems?
5889 Analyze the industry and source of competitive advantages (i.e.: earnings above-average
profit)
5888 How intense is the competitive rivalry?
5889 How large is the bargaining power of suppliers?
5890 How easily can a substitute good or service be developed?
5891 How large is the bargaining power of customers?
5892 How would trends and changes (demand, tech, regulation, etc.) affect the
industry?
5893 How can generic strategies of niche market, low cost, and product
differentiation be used in this industry?
5894 How can we gain and sustain competitive advantage?
5890 Analyze customers
5888 What are the market segments?
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Goals
5888 Mission/vision provide general direction of an organization, which should
lead to organizational goals
5889 Goals provide substance to the overall mission/vision
Operations Strategy
5888 Operations Strategy
23 The approach that is used to guide the operations functions
Productivity
5888 Productivity
5888 Measure of productive use of resources, usually expressed as ratio of
output to input
5889 Output/input = productivity
5889 Productivity growth
5888 Increase in productivity over a period of time
5889 (Current period production – previous year period production)/Previous
years period production
5890 Measuring productivity
5888 Can be based on;
23 Single input – partial productivity
5888 Output/labour
5889 Output/machine
5890 Output/material
5891 Output/energy
24 More than one input – multlifactor
5888 Output/(labour+machine)
5889 Output/(labour+materials+energy)
25 All inputs and total measure
5888 Goods and service produced/all inputs used to product them
5889 NOTE: Partial productivity (single input) is of the greatest use
4. Product Design
Outline
23 Component Commodity
23 Significant benefits when a component can be used dith pultiple products
23 Saves time
24 Standard training on assembly/installation
25 Buying in bulk
24 Trade off: Annual cost saved by commodity v. extra cost of a commodity
Table of Contents
Product Design Process...............................................................................................................................6
Elements:................................................................................................................................................6
Product Approval Committee..............................................................................................................6
Core Teams..........................................................................................................................................6
Peer Review/Stage-Gates....................................................................................................................7
Structured Development Process........................................................................................................7
The Stage Model.....................................................................................................................................8
1. Scoping........................................................................................................................................8
2. Building business case.................................................................................................................8
3. Development...............................................................................................................................9
4. Testing and Validation..................................................................................................................9
5. Launch.........................................................................................................................................9
Dell’s Product Design Development...................................................................................................9
Sources of Ideas for New or Redesigned Products......................................................................................9
Key Issues in Product Design.......................................................................................................................9
Life Cycle.................................................................................................................................................9
1. Incubation....................................................................................................................................9
2. Growth.......................................................................................................................................10
3. Maturity.....................................................................................................................................10
4. Saturation..................................................................................................................................10
5. Decline.......................................................................................................................................10
Standardization.....................................................................................................................................10
Standardization.................................................................................................................................10
Reducing Variety...............................................................................................................................10
Lack of Standardization.....................................................................................................................10
Disadvantages of Standardization.....................................................................................................10
Design for Mass Customization.............................................................................................................10
Options..............................................................................................................................................11
Advantages........................................................................................................................................11
Reliability...............................................................................................................................................11
Robust Design.......................................................................................................................................11
Taguchi’s Approach.......................................................................................................................11
Ethical/Legal Issues...............................................................................................................................11
Design for Environment (DFE)...............................................................................................................12
Concurrent Engineering........................................................................................................................12
Computer-Aided Design (CAD)..............................................................................................................12
Design for Manufacturing and Assembly..............................................................................................12
Design for manufacturing..................................................................................................................12
Design for assembly..........................................................................................................................12
Component Commodity........................................................................................................................13
Differences in Designing Systems..............................................................................................................13
Intangible..........................................................................................................................................13
Core Teams
5888 Cross functional teams empowered to plan and lead the design/development
projects from idea to commercialization
5889 Involves
5888 Resolving issues/conflicts
5889 Making trade offs
5890 Directing other support staff
5890 Limits of authority
5891 Roles should be previously defined
5892 Consist of
5888 Product manager
5889 Product designers
Peer Review/Stage-Gates
5888 Milestones during a new product design development project when the
progress of the core team is reviewed by product approval committee
5889 Types of decisions
5888 Improve
5889 Cancel
5890 Redirect
5890 Results in
5888 Recognizing problems
5889 Making appropriate adjustments
5890 Reducing cost
5891 Time to market
5891 Escalator effect
5888 Cost multiplies after each phase review
5889 Scoping
5888 Involves preliminary
23 Market assessment
24 Technical assessment
25 Financial assessment
5889 IN BETWEEN 1-2: second screen
5889 Development
23 Involves further developing the product concept
24 Making and testing prototype
25 Operations process development
26 IN BETWEEN 3-4: go to testing
5891 Launch
5888 Post launch review
24 Growth
23 More reliable and less costly product
24 Increased awareness of product
25 Hi-volume production may involve automated process to lower costs
25 Maturity
23 Few, if any, design changes
26 Saturation
23 Decline in demand
27 Decline
23 Firm may try to improve product by:
5888 Improving reliability
5889 Reducing cost of production
5890 Redesign
5891 Introduce a substitute process
24 Some products do not exhibit life cycles
25 Services have life cycles
Standardization
Standardization
Etent to which there is absence of variety in a part of product
Reducing Variety
5888 Increase quality and reallocating of product
5889 Reduced time/cost to employees
Lack of Standardization
5888 Can lead to difficulties and competitive struggle
Disadvantages of Standardization
23 Less variety, less range of action
Options
23 Delayed Differentiation
23 Producing, but note quite completely until customers preferences are known
24 Modulate design
23 Parts are grouped into modules that are easily replaced or interchanged
24 The product is composed of modules or components instead of individual parts
Advantages
23 Avoiding long customer waits
24 Failures are easier to detect
25 Simpiler purchasing, inventory control and assembly ops
Reliability
23 Reliability
23 The ability of a product, part, or system to perform its intended function under
normal circumstance
24 Failure
23 A situation in which a product, part, or system does not perform as intended
Robust Design
23 Design that can function over a broad range of conditons
23 i.e. rubber boats are more robust that leather shoes
24 The more robust, the less likely it is to fail due to the ability to adapt to change
25 Generally comes with higher levels of customer satisfaction
Taguchi’s Approach
PREMISE
5888 Often easier to design a product which is insensitive to environmental factors as
oppose to controlling such factors
5889 Central feature
5888 Parameter design
23 Determining specifications for a product that would make it more
robust item of
O Manufacturing variation
O Product deterioration O
Conditions of use
Ethical/Legal Issues
5888 Take into consideration
5888 Government acts and regulation
5889 Government agencies and boards
5890 Patent/copyright infringement
23 Product liability
23 Manufacturer is liable for injuries, damages caused by faulty product
O Problems can arise because of stress and time
Concurrent Engineering
5888 Bringing engineering design, manufacturing engineers and staff from
marketing, purchasing together early in the decision plans
5889 Key advantages
5888 Manufacturing engineers, personnel are knowledgeable on
production capabilities, important for cost, quality considerations
5889 Can help to avoid length delays
23 Could be a competitive advantage
Component Commodity
23 Significant benefits when a component can be used dith pultiple products
23 Saves time
24 Standard training on assembly/installation
25 Buying in bulk
24 Trade of
23 Annual cost saved by commodity v. extra cost of a commodity
Convenient locations
5888 Convenient locations are important
User friendly
4. Design service delivery to be user-friendly
Reliability
23 Learning Objectives
5888 Describe the basic production process types
5888 Job shop
5889 Batch
5890 Repetitive
5891 Continuous process
5889 Discuss automated production technologies
5888 Fixed automation: Most rigid; uses high cost, specialized equipment
for a fixed sequence
5889 Programmable automation: uses high cost, general purpose
equipment controlled by a computer program that provides the sequence of
operations and specified details about each operation
23 N/C (numerically controlled) machine
24 Robot
5890 Flexible manufacturing: group of machine centres controlled by a
computer, with automatic material handling and robots or other automated
5890 Describe steps of production process design and learn to draw process flow
diagrams
5888 Define production process
23 Determine how completed the input materials should be
24 Set production process objectives: capacity, type of process, cost, tech
25 Determine the nature of process in general
5889 Production development
23 Conceptualize the design
5888 Develop a few alternative process
concepts (incremental/hierarchial)
5889 Usually a process flow diagram
5890 Evaluate alternative process concept
24 Make an embodiment of the design
5888 Choose one process concept and complete the design
5889 Build a prototype (Determine resources, estimate costs)
5890 Refine process and re-evaluate
25 Create a detailed design
5888 Finalize the process specidication
5888 Determine specific machines, equipment
(capacities and make) and labout
5889 Design the plant layout
5890 Design the work centres
24 Buy the machine and equipment, recruit workers and start trial runs
5888 Describe the basic plant/facility layout types
23 Reliability
23 The ability of a product, part, or system to perform its intended function under a
prescribed set of conditions
24 Failure
23 Situation in which a product, part, or system does not perform as intended
25 Normal Operating
23 The set of conditions under which an item’s reliability is specified
Elements of Reliability
23 Improvement of individual components
24 Providing Redundancy
Improving Reliability
5888 Component design
5889 Production/assembly techniques
5890 Testing
5891 Redundancy/backup
5892 Preventive maintenance procedures
5893 User education
5894 System design
Quantifying Reliability
23 Reliability is probability that the product or system will:
5888 Function when activated -- instantaneous reliability
5889 Function for a given length of time – continuous reliability
5889 Independent Events
5888 Vents whose occurrence or non-occurence do not influence each other
5890 Redundacy
5888 The use of backup components to increase reliability
Rules of Reliability
23 If two or more events are independent and the success is defined as the probability that all of
the events occur, than the probability of success is equal to the product of the probabilities of
the events occurring
23 i.e. : Ps = P1 * P2 * P3 … *PN
24 Example
5888 There are two lamps that require the other to work for it to work.
23 The probability of lamp 1 working, p = 0.90
24 The probability of lamp 2 working, p = 0.80
5889 The probability of both lamps working
23 P = 0.9*0.8 = 0.72 OR 72%
2.
5888 Redundancy
23 The use of backup components to increase reliability
23 If two events are independent and success is defined as the probability that at least one of the
events will occur, the probability of success is equal to the probability of either one plus (1 –
probability is none of the events occurs
23 i.e.: 1 – (1-P1) (1-P2) (1-P3) , simplifying:
5888 Ps = P1 + (1-P1)(P2) + (1-P2)(P3) ….
24 Example
5888 There are two lamps in a room. When on,
5888 Lamp 1 probability: 0.9
5889 Lamp 2 probability: 0.8
5889 Only one lamp is needed for success,
5890 Probability of success
5888 Ps = 1 – (1-0.9)(1-0.8) = 0.98
5891 Conceptually, think of as a backup; if one fails, the other is turned on
v.
5888 If three events are involvement, and success is defined as the probability that at least
one of the events will occur,
5888 The probability of success is equal to the probability of one of the events
(any of the events),
23 Plus the product of (1 – that probability)
24 Plus the probability of the second event (any of the remaining events) ,
25 Plus the product of (1 – the first probability) and (1 – second probability)
and the probability of the first event
a. Probability of success = P1 + s
5889 Example
23 Three lights have probabilitys of 0.9, 0.8, 0.7 of lighting when turned on. Only
one lighted lamp is needed for success.
23 Ps = 1 – (1-0.9)(1-0.8)(1-0.7) = 0.994
24 Conceptually, we can think of this system as a backup with a backup
25 The probability of success, Ps, is the probability that the first lamp operates + if
the first fails, that the second will turn on, and then if that fails, a third
23 #1 operates + [#1 fails][#2 operates] – [#2 fails][#3 operates]
iv.
Example S!:
Determine the reliability of the system shown below O
Made up of three components
Component 1, no backup = 0.98
P=.98
Component 2, 1 backup = 0.90 + 0.9(1-0.9) = 0.99
P1 = 0.9
Pb = 0.9
Component 3, 1 backup 0.95+0.92(1-0.95) = 0.996
P1 = 0.95
Pb = 0.92
Reliability
0.98 * 0.99 * 0.996 = 0.966
Mean time to failure (MTTF)
The average length of itme before failure of a product
Mean time between failures (MTBF)
The average time from the up time after the repair following a failure to the
next failure
Example S-3
Particular vacuum cleaner has an expected life expenctency that is exponsential with a mean of 4
year and an insignificant burn-in phase
O Find the probability that one of these vacuum cleaners will have a life that ends
After the initial 4 years
Before 4 years
Not before 6 years
After initial 4 years; t = 4
T/MTTF = 4 years/4 years = 1.00
From table, e-1 = 0.3679
The probability of failure before 4 years; P1-4t
1 – t(4)
1 – 0.3679 = 0.6321
Not before 6, t = 6
T/MTTF = 6 years / 4 years = 1.50
From table, e-1.50 = 0.2231
The area is the probability that SERVICE LIFE WILL NOT EXCEED SOME VALUE T
To find the reliability
Subtract probability by 1
To obtain the result of T
Work in reverse
Locate nearest probability,
Pick up the associated z value
Insert the z value in the above formula
Solve for t
Example S-4
The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modelled using a normal distribution with a mean
of 6 years and a standard deiation of 1 year, determine
O The probability that a ball bearing will fail before 7 years of service
O The probability that a ball bearing will fail after 7 years of service (find its reliability)
O The service life that will provide a failure probability of 10%
Wear-out mean : 6 years
Wearout Standard deviation: 1 year
Wear-out is normally distributed
The probability that a ball bearing will fail before 7 years of service
O Calculate z using the above formula
−
Z=(7–6)/1=1/1
P(T<T) = P(z<1) = 0.8413
The probability that a ball bearing will fail after 7 years O 1
– (before 7 years)
O 1 – 0.8413
O 0.1587
O −
O
That service life will provide a failure rate of 10%
O
=
O ℎ 0.1 = 1.28
1.28 = −6 1
T = 4.72
Weilbull Distribution
Weilbull is identical to the exponential distribution
If k>1 failure rate increases overtime
Because of flexibility
Weilbull distribution is commonly used to model the time to failure during the burn-in
(k<1) and wear out (k>1) phases
Availiability
Availability
The faction of time a piece of equipment or a repairable product is expect to be
available for operation
Mean time to repair
The average length of time to repair a failed item
Availability
+
Where
MTBF
Mean time between failures
MTTR
Mean time to repair
Example S-5
A copier is expected t operate for 200 hours after repair and the mean repair time is expected to be
2 hours
MTBF : 200 H
O MTTD: 2
+
200/(200+2)
0.99
Note (availability):
To increase availability O
Increase MTBF O
Decrease MTTR
i.e.: easier to replace cartridges
Make or Buy
Decide whether to make or buy a part
Often a strategic decision
Fctors
Existing/desired core capabilities
Available capacity
Quality
Whether demand is steady or temporary
Secrecy of technology
Costs
Job Shop
Definition
Process type used when a low quantity of high-variety customized goods or services is
needed
Characteristics
Process is intermittent
Work shifts from one small job to the next; each slightly different
requirements
Highly flexible machines
Skilled workers
Example
Tool and die shop which makes one-of-a-kind tool and die
Managerial Challenge
Scheduling jobs so due dates are met
Resources are used as much as possible
Batch Process
Definition
A type of process used when a moderate volume and variety of a goods or service is
desired
Characteristics
Equipment is not as flexible as job shop
Workers are not as skilled as job shops
Intermittent process
Example
Bakeries bake/sell cookies in batches
Managerial Challenge
Scheduling batches in order to meet planned production and demand while utilizing the
resources at a high level
Repetitive/Assembly line
Definition
A type of process used when higher quantities of more standardized good or
services are needed
Production line
A sequence of machines/workstations that perform operations on a
part/product
Assembly line
A production line where parts are added to a product sequentially
Characteristics
Low level of skilled workers
Slight flexibility in equipment
Lines can be either
Machine paced (same speed)
Human paced (variable speed)
Example
Automobiles
Managerial Challenges
Capacity balance
Technology management
Quality
Materials management
Continuous
Definition
Used when a high volume of highly standardized output it required
Characteristics
No variety in output
No need for flexible equipment
Low skill wokers
Product is unable to be counted
Example
Sugar
Managerial Considerations
Same as assembly line
Capacity balance
Technology management
Quality
Materials management
But because of faster production speed
Greater care required for automated control of flow
Start/stop production is challenging
ABOVE MATRIX DEPICTS: Ideal to have the production process capabilities, i.e equipment, to
match the requirements (i.e. product variety)
Consider
Products often go through lifecycles, requiring a switch in production process
Hybrid Process
Process with elements of other process types embedded in them, i.e.:
Job shop may evolve to repetitive; having part of the process run as a job
shop while the other acts in a repetitive fashion
Focused factories
Automation
Definition
Using machinery and equipment with sensing andcontrolling devices that enable it to
operate automatically
Disadvantages
Costly
Less flexible
Adverse effect on productivity (morale)
Fixed Automation
Most rigid
Perfected by Ford Motor Company
Characteristics
High cost, specialty
Advantages
Low unit cost
High volume
Limitations
Minimal variety
High cost of making maor changes
Programmable Automatoin
Characteristics
High cost, general purpose equipment controlled via a computer program which
provides
Sequence of ops
Details of each ops
As easy to change process as it is easy to change software
Type of automation has capability of economically providing a fairly wide variety of low
volume products (i.e.: batch)
Flexible Automation
Uses equipmenttt thhhat is more customized than programmable
Key difference
Flexible automation requires less change, thereby being almost continuous and
batch
Machine center
Machine capable for performing a variety of ops
Flexible manufacturing system (FMS)
A group of machine centers controlled by a computer with automatic material
handling and robots or other automated equipment
Advantages
Offers reduced labour costs
More consistent quality
Lower capital investment
Higher flexibility
Relatively quick change over
Limitations
Systems can handle relatively narrow range of part variety
Must be used for family/similar parts
Longer planning and development times of increased complexity and cost
Suitability depends on
Variety
Quantity
Computer Integrated Manufacturing
A system for linking a broad range of manufacturing, other activities through
computer systems
Able to
Orders
Schedules
Purchasing
Control inventory
Shop controls
Distribution in manufacturing
Process Design
Determine
Form and untion of how production of g/s is to occur
Involves
Identifying activities and their sequences, resources, controls directly needed in
production
Methodology
Define production process;
Determine how complete inputs should be; these are make or buy decisions
Set production process objectives
Capacity, flexibility
Type of process
Job shop
Assembly
Repetitive
Continuous
Technology and extent of automation, production start date
Determine the nature of the process
Production Process Development
Conceptualize the Design
Answers:
How do you get from input to output
What is the sequence of major operations? a.
Develop a few alternative concepts
Incremental
Do one step at a time
Hierarchal (top down)
O
Triangle
Storage
Rectangle
Operation
Example 5
Recipe
Mix flour, yeast, salt
Knead the dough
Shape the dough
Bake in over
Let rise in pan
Bake in over
Let bread cool
Machine
Mixes, knreads
Automatically shapes,
Drops in pan
Bakes
Sliced and bagged
Process flow diagram
10
Types of Layout
Layout refers to the location of O
Departments
O Work centers
O Equipment in facility
Common reasons for redesign
Inefficient operations (excessive handling)
Change in design of product
Change in quantity mix of output
Change of methods, equipment
11
12
Cellular Layout
Definition
Layout in which different machines areee arrrranged in a cell thhhat can process
items that have similar processing equipment
Group technology
Grouping items together with similar design of manufacturing
characteristics into part families
Observe
Arranged to handle ops necessary for group (family) of similar arts
Thus, all parts flow through the same route with minor variations
Cell often in the shape “U”
Permitting teamwork via communication
Increasing flexibility because worker can work at 1 station and quickly
another
Benefits
Faster processing time
Increased capacity
Less material handling
Less work in process inventory
Reduced set up lines
Design Characteristics
Size
Shape
Material
Features
Function
Manufacturing characteristics
Type of service
Tolerance/precision
Once items that are similar are collected
Form families
System developed to store, retrieve specific info on familis
Allows for a part to be manufactured for a family, alleviated the individual
specification frustrations
Disadvantages
Time consuming
Considerable amount of data
Primary methods
13
Visual inspections
Examination of design
Production delay
Production flow sequence and routing analysis
Warehouse Layout
Factors affecting warehouse O
Cold storage
O Size, frequency of order
High frequency placed near docks
Low frequency at front
Correlated items together
Consider cost, time of shipping while placing
Retail Layout
Objective
Cost minimization
Product flow
Customer flow
Sales influencing
Office Layout
Less need for paper works allows for open offices
14
Table of Contents
Introduction and Job Design........................................................................................................................3
Efficiency Approach.................................................................................................................................3
Behavioural Approach.............................................................................................................................4
Methods Analysis........................................................................................................................................4
Motion Study...........................................................................................................................................6
Working Conditions.....................................................................................................................................9
Brief History of Government Regulations in the Workplace....................................................................9
Temperature and Humidity.....................................................................................................................9
Ventilation...............................................................................................................................................9
Illumination.............................................................................................................................................9
Noise and Vibrations...............................................................................................................................9
Work Breaks............................................................................................................................................9
Safety......................................................................................................................................................9
Ergonomics..............................................................................................................................................9
Workers’ Well-Being and a Healthy Workplace....................................................................................9
Work Measurement....................................................................................................................................9
Stopwatch Study...................................................................................................................................10
Observed Time..................................................................................................................................11
Learning Objectives
Explain the purpose of methods analysis and describe how methods analysis is performed
Methods analysis; breaks down the job into sequences of tasks and elements and
improves it
Identify the job to be studied and gather all pertinent facts about its operations,
machines, equipment, materials and so on
Discussthe job with the operator and supervisor
Analyze the document the present method of performing the job
Question the present method and propose a new method
Elements
Process chart
Worker machine chart
Motion study: systemic study of the human motions used to perform an operation or
task
Tools
Motion economy principles
Analysis of elementary motions
Micro motions
Sumultaneous hand motion chart
Discuss the impact of working conditions on job design
Government regulation
Temperature and humidity
Ventilation
Illumination
Noise and vibrations
Work breaks
Safety
Describe the time study methods and perform calculations
Stop watch study: development of standard time based on observation of one worker
taken over a number of cycles
Define the job to be studied and inform the worker
Determine number of cycles
N = (Z value * Standard deviation / max error * mean) ^ 2
N = (Z*s/e); e being the accuracy amount error amount
Time the job and rate performance
Calculate standard time
Observed time: average of recorded times
OT = sum of recorded times / number of observations
Normal time: workers performance
NT = Observed time * Performance rating
Standard time (performed job; accounts for delays)
ST = Normal time * allowance factor
Work sampling: technique for estimating the proportion of time that a worker spends on
each activity or is idle
A (acceptable error) = zvalue√(p(1-p)/n)
N = (z value/acceptable error)^2 p(1-p)
Describe various compensation methods
Time based pay: compensation based on time an employee has worked
Output based pay (piece rate): compensation based on the amount of output an
employee produces
Group bonuses
Skill/knowledge bonus plan
Vocabulary
Job design
Specifying the content and method of a job
Efficiency Approach
Vocabulary
Specialization
Focusing the job to a narrow scope
Behavioural Approach
Vocabulary
Job enlargement
Giving a worker a larger portion of the total task
Job rotation
Workers periodically exchange jobs
Job enrichment
Increasing responsibility for planning and coordination
Self-directed teams
Groups who perform the same function and are empowered to
make certain decisions and changes in their work
Methods Analysis
Vocabulary
Methods analysis
Breaks down the job into a sequence of tasks and elements
and improves it
Process chart
Chart used to examine the overall sequence of an operations by
focusing on movements of the operator or flow of material
Worker-Machine chart
Used to determine portions of a work cycle during which an
operator and equipment are busy or idle
Method for job analysis
Identify the job to be studied and gather all pertinent facts about its
Operations
Machines
Equipment
Materials, etc.
Discuss the job with the operator and supervisor
Analyze and document the present method of performing the job
Question the present method and propose a new method
Questions that experienced analysts ask when developing checklist to
generate ideas for improvement
Why is there a delay, storage, or inspection at this point?
How can travel distances be shortened or avoided?
Can an operation be eliminated?
Can the sequence of operations be changed?
Can similar activities be grouped?
Would the use of additional or improved equipment be helpful?
Example of a process chart
O
Example of a worker-machine chart
Motion Study
Vocabulary
Motion study
Systematic study of the human motions used to perform an
operation or task
Motion economy principles
Guidelines for designing motion-efficient work procedures
Micro-motion study
Use of motion pictures and slow motion to study motions that
otherwise would be too rigid to analyze
Simo chart
A chart that shows the elementary motions performed by
each hand, side-by-side, over time
Most used techniques/tool to develop efficient procedures
Motion economy principles
Analysis of elementary motions
Micro-motion (slow-motion video) study
Simultaneous hands motion chart
Example of motion economy principles
The use of arms and body
Both hands should begin and end their acivity simultaneously
and should not be idle at the same instant, expect during
frequent but short rest periods
The motions made by the hands should be minimal and
symettrical
Working Conditions
Brief History of Government Regulations in the Workplace
Temperature and Humidity
Ventilation
Illumination
Noise and Vibrations
Work Breaks
Safety
Ergonomics
Vocabulary
Ergonomics
Fitting the job to the worker’s capability and size
Work Measurement
Vocabulary
Work measurement
Stopwatch Study
Vocabulary
Stopwatch study
Development of standard time based on observations of one
worker taken over by a number of cycles
Basic steps in a stopwatch time study
Define the job to be studied and inform the worker who will be
studied
Determine the number of cycles to observe
Time the job and rate the worker’s performance
Calculate the standard time, allowing for rest periods
Determining number of cycles
The sample=size( )needed2 to achieve the goal can be determined using
ℎ
Z is the number of normal standard deviations needed for
desired confidence
s is the sample standard deviation
a is maximum acceptable error proportion ( = percentage /
100)
Xbar is the sample mean
N is the number of observations (sample size)
Typical values
90% confidence, z is 1.65
95% confidence, z is 1.96
95.5% confidence, z is 2.00
98% confidence, z is 2.33
99% confidence, z is 2.58
Example: Determine sample size
O s = 2.1 minutes
O xbar = 6.4 minutes
O z = 1.96
O a = 0.10
O
= ( )
Input
O
O = (0.1∗1
1.96∗2 . 2
.96 )
= 41.26
2
O =( )
Input
O
=( )2
1.96∗2 0.5.1
= 67.77
Where
O ∑OT is observed ℎ time ℎ
N is the number of observations
O Note
If a task does not occur during each cycle, its average time
should be determined separately
Job Design
Job design involves specifying the content and methods of job
– Ergonomics
Efficiency School
– A refinement of Taylor’s scientific management concepts
Behavioural School
– Emerged during the 1950s
Specialization:
Advantages
For company
Simplifies training
High productivity
Low wage cost
For worker
Low education and skill requirement
Minimum responsibilities
Little mental effort needed
Disadvantages
For Company
Difficult to motivate quality
Worker dissatisfaction
Absenteeism
High turnover
Disruptive tactics
For Workers
Monotonous work
Limited opportunitiy for afvancement
Little control over work
Little opportunity for self-fulfillment
Objectives
Objectives of job design
– Productivity
– Safety
Approaches
Two approaches to job design
– Efficiency school
– Behavioral school
– Who
– What
– Where
– When
Time of day
– Why
– How
– sets work-rest cycles according to the energy expended in various parts of the job. The
harder the work, the more the need for rest periods.
Ergonomics
– is a term used to describe the study of the physical arrangement of the work space
together with tools used to perform a task. Fit the work to the body rather than forcing
the body to conform to the work.
Behavioural Approach
Job Enlargement
Job Rotation
Job Enrichment
Teams
Self-directed teams
Groups who perform the same function and are empowered to make certain
decisions and changes in their work.
Benefits of teams
– Fewer managers are necessary
– Higher quality
– Higher productivity
Methods Analysis
Methods analysis
– breaks down the job into sequence of tasks and elements and improves it.
– Basic Procedures
Process Charts
Ask:
•
Worker-Machine Chart
Helps to see portions of work cycle during which an operator and equipment are busy or idle.
Can help to determine how many machines one operator can manage.
Motion Study
Motion study is the systematic study of the human motions used to perform an operation.
Motion economy principles:
Working Conditions
Working conditions
Termperature and humidity
Ventilation
Illumination
Ergonomics
Noise and vibrations
Work breaks
Safety
Cause of accidents
– Vibration:
Work Breaks
– Efficiency declines as day wears on
Levels of Illumination
Task condition Type of task or area Illumination level Type of illumination
Small detail, Sewing, inspecting 100 Overhead ceiling
extremely accurate dark materials lights and desk lamps
Normal detail, Reading, part 20-50 Overhead ceiling
prolonged periods assembly, general lights
office work
Good contrast, fairly Recreational facilities 5-10 Overhead ceiling
large objects lights
Large objects Restaurant, stairway, 2-5 Overhead ceiling
warehouse lights
– Protective equipment
– Safety devices
– Emergency equipment
– Housekeeping
– Thorough training
– Enforcement of procedures
Safety
– Requires constant attention
carelessness
hazards
Ergonomics
– Involves fitting the job to the worker’s capability and size.
Try to prevent common workplace injuries (e.g. back injuries, repetitive motion
injuries)
Work Measurement
Work Measurement
– Determine how long it should take
to do a job.
Work Sampling
Standard time
– The amount of time it should take a qualified worker to complete a specific task
using given methods, tools and equipment, raw materials, and workplace
arrangement.
Number of cycles
– Number of cycles depends on:
10
– Formulas
2
ZS
N
a)
AX
2
ZS
N
b)
E
– Notation
=Sample mean
Solved Problem #2
– Determine number of observations needed to achieve a specified maximum error, with a
confidence of 95.5 percent.
mean = 5.2 minutes
standard deviation = 1.1 minutes
– Determine:
Given
x-bar = 5.2 minutes
z = 2.00 for 95.5%
s = 1.1 minutes
a = .06
e = .40
Solution
2
ZS 2.00(1.1) 2
N 49.72 (round up to 50 observations)
O AX .06(5.2)
11
ZS 2 2.00(1.1) 2
N 30.25 (round up to 31 observations)
O
E .40
Normal Time
Normal time (NT) = Observed time x Performance rating
Standard Time
Standard Time = Normal Time * Allowance Factor
1 – Allowance %
based on time in workday
What are the normal and standard times for this job?
26.4 minutes
12
Can also use historical or published elemental times to determine times for a
task
Work Sampling
– technique for estimating the proportion of time that a worker or machine spends on
each activity or is idle.
– Reason
Timing an activity
Continuous observation
– Steps
13
Compensation
– Time-based pay
Accurate
Easy to apply
Consistent
Easy to understand
Fair
Question
A job is said to be enlarged vertically if the employee is involved with which of the
following?
14
Question
Which of the following is the Normal Time for a job whose observed performance time is 10
minutes with a performance rating of 90%?
90 minutes
1.10 minutes
11.111 minutes
Question
Which of the following is the Standard Time for a job whose Normal Time is 20 minutes and
whose Allowances are 5% of Normal Time?
19.05 minutes
21 minutes
a. St = nt (1+allowances) = 20 (1.05) = 21
400 minutes
450 minutes
Quality PDSA
O Monitor
Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................................2
Phases of Quality Assurance....................................................................................................................2
Inspection....................................................................................................................................................3
Where to Inspect in the Process..............................................................................................................3
Inspection Costs......................................................................................................................................3
Examples of Inspection Points.................................................................................................................3
Statistical Process Control:..........................................................................................................................4
Statistical Process Control: The Control Process......................................................................................4
Variations and Control.............................................................................................................................4
Statistical Process Control Steps..............................................................................................................4
Control Chart...........................................................................................................................................4
Types of Variations..................................................................................................................................5
Normal Distribution.................................................................................................................................5
Control Limits..........................................................................................................................................6
Control Chart...........................................................................................................................................6
Observations from Sample Distribution..................................................................................................7
Control Limits and Errors.........................................................................................................................7
Designing Control Charts.........................................................................................................................8
Control Charts for Variables....................................................................................................................8
Upper and Lower Control Limits for Sample Mean Chart........................................................................9
Upper and Lower Control Limits for Sample Mean Chart … ALTERNATIVE METHOD...........................9
Upper and Lower Control Limits for Sample Range Control Chart........................................................10
Example: Control Chart.........................................................................................................................10
Example: Sample Mean and Range Charts............................................................................................11
Sample Mean and Range Charts...........................................................................................................13
Introduction
What does the term quality control mean?
Quality Control is an activity that evaluates quality characteristics relative to a standard, and
takes corrective action when they do not meet standards
How is quality control accomplished?
by monitoring and inspecting the product during process
Most progressive
Inspection
How Much/How Often
Where/When
Centralized vs. On-site
Inspection Costs
Control Chart
Purpose:
Types of Variations
Random variation:
Natural variations in the output of process, created by countless minor factors
Assignable variation:
A variation whose source can be identified
Normal Distribution
Only a small percentage of sample means fall more than 2 or 3 standard deviations from the
process mean.
Control Limits
Control limits
The dividing lines between random and nonrandom deviations from the process mean
Control Chart
In control Out of control
In Type I error
No Error (producers risk)
control
X-bar charts
Sample range control charts
Used to monitor the process dispersion
R charts
where
= Sample size
Twenty samples of n = 8 have been taken of the weight of a part. The average of sample ranges for
the 20 samples is .016kg, and the average of sample means is 3kg. Determine three sigma
control limits for sample mean of this process.
Given
X 3, R .016, A2 .37(for n 8, from Table)
O
Solution
Downloaded by Carhy Salvatore (car_xoxo12@yahoo.com)
lOMoARcPSD|4211913
10
Upper and Lower Control Limits for Sample Range Control Chart
UCLR D4 R
LCLR D3 R
11
12
10.800
10.780
10.760
10.740
10.720
Means
10.700
10.680
10.660
10.640
10.620
O 10.600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Sample
Create R-chart
UCL = D4 R (2.11)(0.2204) 0.46504
LCL = D3 R (0)(0.2204) 0
O
Plot values
13
14
Use of p-Charts
When observations can be placed into two categories. O
Good or bad
Pass or fail
Operate or don’t operate
When the data consists of multiple samples of several observations each
Use of c-Charts
Use only when number of occurrences per unit of measure can be counted;
non-occurrences cannot be counted.
O Scratches, chips, dents, or errors per item
O Cracks or faults per unit of distance
O Breaks or tears per unit of area
O Bacteria or pollutants per unit of volumeCalls, complaints, failures per unit of time
N
UCLP P Zs P
LCLP P Zs P
UCLC C Z C
O
LCLC C Z C
15
16
Question
On a quality control chart if one of the values plotted falls outside a limit it should signal to the
manager to do which of the following?
System is out of control, but can still be operated without any concern
System is only out of control if the number of observations falling outside the
boundary exceeds statistical expectations
17
With six sigma expect that only 3 out of 1 million observations will fall outside the
limits
Managers should not conclude the system is out of control from only one
observation
System is OK as is
Process Capability
Design specifications (aka tolerances)
Range of acceptable values established by engineering design or customer requirements
Process variability
Natural variability in a process
Process capability
Process variability relative to specification
3s
And
Upper specification – Process mean
3s
Capability Example
The design specification for the width of a part is between 101 mm and 101.8 mm (= 0.8 mm)
Which of these machines are capable
18
O
Cp > 1.33 is desirable
Cp = 1.00 process is barely capable
Cp < 1.00 process is not capable
Capability Analysis
Capable
Process output falls within specifications
If incapable
19
20
21
Inventory Management
Learning Objectives
Define the term inventory, list major reasons for holding inventory, and discuss the objectives of
inventory management
List the main requirements for effective inventory management, and describe A-B-C
classification and perform it
Describe the basic EQQ model, the economic quantity model, the quantity discount model and the
planned shortage model, and solve typical problems
Describe how to determine the reorder point and solve typical problems
Describe the fixed order interval model and solve typical problems
Describe the single period model and solve typical problems
Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................................2
Importance of Inventories.......................................................................................................................3
Functions (Purpose) of Inventories..........................................................................................................3
Importance and Objectives of Inventory Management...........................................................................4
Requirements for Effective Inventory Management....................................................................................5
Safely Storing and Using Inventories.......................................................................................................5
Tracking Inventories and Using Inventory Control Models......................................................................6
Periodic counting.................................................................................................................................6
Perpetual Tracking (continual tracking)...............................................................................................7
Forecasting Demands and Lead Times....................................................................................................8
Estimating Inventory Costs......................................................................................................................8
Holding Costs.......................................................................................................................................8
Ordering Costs.....................................................................................................................................9
Set up..................................................................................................................................................9
Shortage costs...................................................................................................................................10
Fixed Oder Quantity/Reorder Point Model; Determining the Economic Order Quantity..........................11
Basic Economic Order Quantity.............................................................................................................11
Economic Production Quantity (EPQ)....................................................................................................15
EOQ with Quantity Discounts................................................................................................................17
EOQ with Planned Shortages................................................................................................................20
Fixed Order Quantity/Reorder Point Model: Determining the Reorder Point...........................................21
ROP Using Annual Service Level............................................................................................................25
Overview:
Introduction
Vocabulary
Inventory
An idle material or product, usually in a warehouse or storeroom
Inventory Management
Planning and controlling the inventories
Manufacturing companies carry supplies of
Raw materials
Purchased manufacturing parts and components
Importance of Inventories
Widely used measure of business performance is return of investment (ROI) O
Profit after tax divided by total assets
O Inventories may represent a significant portion of total assets, a reduction of inventories
can result in a significant increase in ROI
Major revenue source
Retail, wholesales
Sale of inventories
The inventory of goods held for sale is one of the largest assets of a
merchandising business
Service companies
Don’t carry as many inventories but do carry supplies and equipment
Receiving
Put-away
Replenishment
Picking and shipping
Applications in Textbook
Eli Lilly Canada
B.C. Hot House
Warehouses/storerooms may needed added security O
Building should be controlled
O Items that are prone to theft are seured
Safety is an important issue in warehouses
Common problem in warehouses
The existence of considerable amount of obsolete items, tehse parts include
Machines that no longer exist
Wrong parts
Excess materials
Used machines, etc.
To be efficient, outdated items should be either
sent back to the supplier (to be restocked by the supplier)
sold at a discount (salvage)
Obsolete items are a drag on company’s assets and take space in the warehouse
Holding Costs
Vocabulary
Holding or carrying cost
Related to physically having items in store
Cost includes warehousing costs
Ordering Costs
Vocabulary
Cost of the actual placement of an order (not including the purchase cost)
This includes
Time of purchasing/inventory control staff determining how much is needed
Periodically re-evaualting sources of supply
Preparing purchase orders
Fixed-cost portion of transportation, receiving, inspecting and moving of goods to
storage
Cost of time spent paying the invoice
Generally expressed as a fixed dollar amount, regardless of size
Set up
Vocabulary
Set up
Involves preparing the machine for the job by adjusting it, changing cutting
tools, etc.
When a company produces its own inventory instead of ordering it from a supplier, the cost of
machine set up is analogous to order cost
Fixed charge per production per run
10
Shortage costs
Vocabulary
Shortage cost
Cost of demand exceeding supply of inventory on hand, includes unrealized
profits per unit, losses of goodwill, etc.
11
+-5% for A
12
Annual ordering cost is inversely and non-linearly related to order quantity
The total annual inventory cost curve is U shaped and it’s minimum annual holding cost is
equal to annual ordering cost
13
Calculating annual holding cost
Multiplying the average amount of inventory on hand by the cost to hold one unit for one
year
The average inventory is simply half of the order quantity
The amount on hand descreases steadily from Q to 0 (for an aveage of (Q+0)/2 or Q/2)
Annual holding cost
(Q/2)H
Q is the order quantity, units per order
H is the holding (or carrying) cost per unit per year
Annual holding cost is a linear quntion of Q
It increases or decreases in direct proportion to hanges in order quantity Q
O
Annual Ordering Costs
Annual ordering cost will decrease as order quantity increases because for a given
annual demand,
the larger the order quantity,
the fewer number of orders needed
Demo of Ordering Costs
if annual demand is 12,000 units and the order quantity is 1000 units per order, there will
be 12 orders per year
but if Q=2,000 units, unlt six order will be needed
at Q = 3000, only 4 orders will be needed
Calculating Annual Ordering Costs
Annual ordering cost = (D/Q)S
D, Demand (units per year)
S, Ordering costs per order
Because the number of order per year (D/Q) decrease as Q increases, annual ordering
cost is inversely and nonlinearly related to order quantity
14
O
Total Inventory Costs
The total annual inventory costs of holding and ordering inventory when Q units are
order
Total inventory Cost = Annual Holding Cost + Annual Ordering Cost
Total Inventory cost = ((Q/2)H) + ((D/Q)S)
Total cost curve is U shaped (convex with one minimum) and that it reaches its
minimum at the quantity where annual holding and annual order costs are equal
O Calculating Optimal Order Quantity (Qo) can be obtained using calculus
= 0 = √2
The minimum total cost is found by substituting Qo for Q (total inventory costs
formula)
Calculating the length of order cycles (time between orders if Qo is used)
Length of order cycles (in yeas) = Qo/D
Example
A tire store sells 100 steel-belted radial tires
holding cost, H: $16/unit/year
ordering cost, S: $20/order
Demand, D: 100
Store operates 360 days a year
Optimal Quantity
Qo = √2DS/H = √(2)(100)(20)/16 = 15.8 (round to 16)
Number of orders per year
D/Qo = 100 tires per year /16 tires each time = 6.25 times per year
Length of order cycle
Qo/D = 16 tires / 100 tires per year = 0.16 year (which is 0.16*360 = 57.6
workdays)
Total Inventory Cost
Annual holding cost + annual ordering cost
15
16
O
During the production phase of the cycle, inventory builds up at a rate equal to the difference
between production and usage rate
Example: the daily production rate is 20 units and the daily usage rate is 5 units,
inventory levels will build up at a rate of 20 – 5 = 15 units per day
As long as production continues, inventory will grow
When production cases, the inventory level will begin to decrease
The inventory will be max, denoted Imax, when production ceases
When the amount of inventory is exusted, production resumes and the cycle repeats
itself
Because the company makes the product itself, there are no ordering cost
Every production run has a set-up cost
Cost to prepare equipment (adjusting, changing tools, etc.)
Set up costs are analogous to ordering costs and are treated the same way with the same
symbol, S
Independent of the lot (run) quantity
The larger the run quantity, the fewer the number of runs/batchs per year (D/Q) and the annual
setup cost is equal to the number of runs per year times the setup cost per run (D/Q)S
Total Annual Inventory Cost
Annual honding cost + Annual setup cost
(Imax/2)H + (D/Q)S
Imax = Maximum Inventory
Q = Production run quantity
S = Setup cost per production run
To calculate Imax, let
P = production rate (i.e.: Units per Day)
d = usage or demand rate (units per day)
The production run quantity Q is consumed at the rate of d during the entire cycle length (= the
time between the beginnings of 2 consecutive production runs) therefore
Cycle length = Q/d
The production run quantity Q is produced at the rate of p during the production run
length (the production phase cycle
Production run length = Q/P
therefore, the max inventory level is
Imax = Q – d(Q/P) = Q/P(p-d)
17
Substituting max inventory level and total inventory cost, taking the derivative with
respect to Q setting it to zero and solving for Q
Q = √2DS/H √p/p-d
Example
Toy manufacturer uses 48,000 rubber wheels per year. The company produces wheels at
800 units per day. Holding costs are $1, setup costs is $45 and the company operates
240 days a year
Optimal production run quantity
Minimum total annual cost for holding and setup
Cycle length for optimal production run quantity
Production run length for the optimal production run quantity
Given
D = 48,000 wheels per year
S = $45 per production run
H = $1 per wheel per year
P = 800 wheels per day
d = 48,000 wheels in 240 days OR 200 wheels per day
Optimal production run quantity
Qo = √2DS/H √p/p-d = √(2*48,000*45)/1 √800/800-200 = 2,400 wheels
Minimum total annual costs for holding and setup
TCmin = Annual holding cost + Annual setup cost
TCmin = (Imax/2)H + (D/Qo)S
TCmin = 1800/2 * 1 + 48,000/2,400 * 45 = 900+900 = $1,800
Cycle length for optimal production run quantity
Q/D
2,400/200 = 12 days
Production run length for the optimal production run quantity
Q/P
2400/800 = 3 days
18
Total annual cost is the sum of annual holding cost, ordering cost and purchasing cost O
TC = Annual holding cost + annual ordering cost + annual purchase cost
O TC = (Q/2)H + (D/Q)S + RD
Where R is the unit price
Recall that the basic EOQ model does not include purchase cost
The rationale
Under the assumption that no quantity discounts is that annual purchase cost is not
affected by order quantity
When quantity discounts are offered, there is a separate U shape for each unit price O
Including annual purchase price merely raises each curve at a constant amount
O However, because the unit prices are all different, each curve is raised by a different
amount
Smaller unit prices will raise the total cost curve less than larger unit prices O
The annual total cost curve is denoted by solid lines only
The objective of the quantity discount model
Identify an order quantity that will represent the lowest total cost for the solid lines
Note:
Holding cost is a percentage of price
Lower prices mean lower holding costs which will result in larger EOQs
Price decreases, each curve minimum point will be to the right of the purchase
quantity with the following procedures
Determine the best purchasing price by
Beginning with the lowest unit price,
19
Calculate the EOQ for each price until you find a feasible EOQ (until an EOQ falls in
the quantiy
If the EOQ for the lowest unit prie is feasible, it is the optimal order quantity
If not, compare the total cost at all break quantities larger than te
feasible EOQ with the total cost of the feasible EOQ
The quantity that yields the lowest total cost among these is optimum
Example
A factory uses 4,000 light bulbs a year,
1-499.90 cents each
500-999.85 centss
1000 or more
The cost is $30 to prepare the purchase order and the holding cost is 40% of the
purchase price per year
Determine optimal order quantity and the total annual cost
O
Find EOQ for each price until you locate feasible EOQ
EOQ0.80 = √2DS/H = √2*4000*30/0.32 = 866 light bulbs
Not feasible because it is less than 1000
EOQ0.85 = √2(4000)30/0.34 = 840 light bulbs
Feasible; fall in the 0.85 per light bulb range (500 – 999)
Find total inventory costs
Annual holding cost + annual ordering costs + annual purchase cost
20
(Q/2)H + (D/Q)S + RD O
Find total inventory: 840 units
840/2(0.34) + 4000/840(30) + 0.85*4000 = $3,686 O
Find total inventory: 1000 units
1000/2(0.32) + 4000/1000 (30) + 0.08 (4000) = $3,480
Because $3,480 < $,686, the minimum cost order quantity is 1000 light bulbs
21
Q = √2DS/H(H+B/B)
Example
Annual demand for a fridge is 50 units. The holding cost per unit per year is $200. The
backorder cost is estimated to be $5000. Ordering costs from the manufacturer is $10
per order
Determine the optimal order quantity and the back-order quantity per cycle
D is 50 unit per year
H is $200 per unit per year
B is $500 per unit per year
S is $10 per order
Q = √2DS / H (H+B/B)
Q = √2*50*10 / 200 (200 + 500/500) = 2.65, round to 3
Qb = Q (H/H+B)
Qb = 3 (200/200+500) = 0.86, round to 1
This model has the following practical implications
Allow the inventory level to drop to zero
Then when there is a customer demand for a unit, place an order for 3 fridges
22
O
Demo of how supply stocks can reduce shortage or risk of stock-out during a
lead time (LT)
Note that for the fixed order quantity/ROP model,
Shortage/stock-out protection is needed only during lead times O
the amount of safety stock that is appropriate is determined by
demand and lea time variability
desired service level
there are two ways to define service level
lead time service level
probability that demand will not exceed supply during a lead time
annual service level
the percentage of annual demand filled
the formula commonly used to determine safety stock assumes lead time is normally
distributed
Safety stock = zϬdlt
23
O
Where z is the safety factor
Number of deviations above expected demand
Where Ϭdlt is the stand deviation of demand during a lead time
Exact relationship depends on
Type of service used
Lead time
Annual
24
= + √
O Where 2 2 2
Note
O ℎ ( / / ℎ)
ℎ ℎ ( // ℎ )
O
O Each of these models assume that demands and lead time are independent
Example
O Restaurant uses 50 jars. The weekly usage has a standard deviation of 3 jars. The
manager is willing to accept no more than 10% risk of stock-out during lead time (2
weeks). Assume normal distribution.
O Questions
Which of the above formulas is appropriate for this situation? Why?
Determine the value of z
Determine the ROP
O Given = 50
Demand,
=3
LT is 2
weeks
Acceptable stock out risk is 10%
Lead time service level is 0.90
O Solutions
Which of the above formulas is appropriate for this situation? Why?
Because only the demand is variable, than the reorder point formula is
most appropriate
25
ROP =
O
The graph on the left is day 1
The graph in the middle is day 2
The graph on the right is the distribution of the sum of day 1 and day 1 demands O We
assumed that the manager has a desired service level from which z, then safefy
stocks and ROP, were determined
O Alternative method to determine the ROP
Based on cost of overstock and cost of shortages
This analysis will be similar to the single period model
Take
O E(z) to z-value table, determine z valu e
( )=
O Use the z value in the following general ROP formula or a specific ROP formula (12-15,
Standard deviation of 16
26
50
O Question
Determine the ROP if the desired annual service level is
0.997
0.98
O Solution
Calculate
(1− )
( ) = 250(1 −0.0997
)
O ( )= 16 = 0.047
( )= 16 = 0.3125
O 250(1−0.098)
Calculate Z value
E(z) = 0.047, z = 1.28
E(z)=0.3125, z = 0.19
ROP
50 + 0.19(16) = 53.04 units
It is important that variations in demand and lead times (with the cooperation of the suppliers) be
reduced as much as possible
O This will reduce the need for safety stock
27
Quite different from the EOQ/ROP model in which the order size remains fixed from cycle
to cycle while the length of the cycle varies (shorter if demand is above average, and
longer if demand is below average)
Grouping orders can save ordering and shipping costs
Some situations may not readily lend themselves to an inventory count
Example: Many retail operations
The alternative for them is to use fixed interval ordering, which requires only periodic checks of
inventory levels
Two decisions are needed to apply this model for a group of items from the same supplier
The order interval
The order up to level for each item
Taking derivative of TC with respect to OI, setting it equal to 0 and solving for
OI, we get the
Examp le
∗=
√∑
O
2( + )
O Three parts are purchased from the same supplier. The basic cost of placing an order for
one of the SKUs is $1.50. The inclusion of each additional SKU costs $0.50 more. The
28
annual carrying cost rate is 24% of the unit cost. The annual demand and unit prices are
given below. Assume that the buying company works 250 days a year.
Question
Calculate the optimal order interval
Given
SKU 1, Demand/Year is 12,000 and the price/unit is $0.50
SKU 2, demand/year is 8,000 and the price/unit is 0.30
SKU 3, demand/year is 700 and the price/unit is 0.10
S = $1.50 – 0.50 = $1.00
s = 0.50
i = 0.24
Solution; optimal∗=√order2( + ) interval
∑
=√ 2∗(1.00+3∗0.50)
OI*0.24(12000∗0.50+8000∗0.30+700∗0.10)
OI* = 0.0496 year = 12.4 days
The order up to level for an item should be enough so that items last unti the next arrives (i.e.:
after an order interval plus a lead time
O This fact illustrated in the below chart also contracts the fixed order interval model with
the order quantity (EOQ/ROP) model
29
O
Note
The order quantity (the difference between order up to level and on hand inventory
level) for the fixed order interval model will vary from one order time to another
(depending on size of demand during the past interval)
Safety Stocks
Need for safety stocks
In the presence of demand and lead time variability stocks
The two models also differ in terms of safety stocks
The fixed order interval model must have stock-out protections until the
next order arrives
The fixed order quantity (EOQ/ROP) model needs protection only during
lead time
Therefore, the fixed interval model necessitates a larger amount of
safety stock for a given service level
Therefore, order up to level or Imax can be determined by
30
=3
Note
The average demand is usually estimated using forecast of demand, and the standard
deviation of demand is usually estimated using standard deviation of the forecast error
31
O Accommodates this by determining an order interval OI for reviewing every SKU and a
multiple modates this by determining an order interval OI for reviewing every SKU and a
multiple Mi of OU for ordering SKUi (determines the order up to level SKUi)
After planning the model (i.e.: determing OI and Mis) during operation and control of the model
(in the presence ofd demand variation),
O the on-hand inventory level of each SKU should be compared with its forecast demand
for the next OI plus lead time plus SKU should be compared with its forecast demand for
the next OI plus lead time plus safety stock (just like ROP) and if on hand inventory level
level up to the SKU’s order up to level should be ordered
the order up level for SKUi should cover its forecast demand during the next mi order intervals
(OI) plus lead time plus safety stocks only for the next OI + LT
the determination of optimal values for OI and Mis is complicated, we will use a simple heuristic
O find the SKU with largest annual dollar value DjRj, Suppose, it is SKU, Let mi =1
= √( + ( ℎ ℎ 1)
O Calculate Order
Interval OI
1
2( + ∑ ))
O ∗=
Rationale √
∑
Thatb oth purchase order cost (S) and line item ordering cost (s) are charged to
the SKU because SKU will be ordered T EVERY ORDER INTERVAL
Mj for other SKUs re determined using formula for relative
2( + ∑ 1
))
∗= √
∑
to mk
OI is∗ calculated=√ 2( + ) using the formula for order interval is very similar to formula ∑ but uses mjDj as the order quantity for SKU
Example
We use the same data as previous eample to compare periodic review model with the
fied order interval model
Given
S = $1.00
s = 0.50
i = 0.24
The annual demand and unit price
SKU 1, demandyear = 1
12,000; price/unit 0.50, DiRi $6,000
SKU 2, demand/year 8,000, price/unit 0.30. DiRi $2,400
SKU 3, demand/year 700, price/unit 010, DiRi $70
SKU with largest DiRi is Sku
M1=1
32
√2,4000 1+0.5 = 0.91; 1
M2 =
0.50 $6,000
O
1 +0 .5 = 5.35;5
Order Interval √ 70
M2 =1
M3 = 0.50 $6,000
=
√ 0.24 (1∗6000+1∗2400+5∗70 )
2(1.00+0.4)(1+1+20)
33
If the salvage value os ;arger than the original cost, then C will be negative
Because the salvage value per unit must be less than revenue per unit
Goal of thesingle period model
Identify that order quantity or stocking level that wil minimiz the long-run total excess and
shortage cost
Two categories of problems that we will consider
Those for which demand can be approzimated by a continuous distribution
(uniform/normal)
Those for which demand be approximated by a discrete distribution (say, hisctorical
frequencies or Poisson)
The nature of item can indicate which type of model might be appropriate
Example: demand for liquids and items whose individual units are small but whose
demand is large (i.e. muffins, newspaper) tend tovary over some continuous scale
Thus lending itself to the description by continuous distribution
Demand for spare parts, flowers, etc/ can be expressed it terms of the number of units
demanded
Lends itself to discrete distribution
34
O
Service level
The probability that demand will not exceed the stocking level
Calculation of the service level
Key to determining the distribtuipns optimal stocking level So
Service Level SL = Cs / Cs+ Ce
Cs is the shortage cost per unit
Ce is the excess cost per unit
Optimal stocking level, So
Determined from the demand distribution
Example
Muffins are delivered daily to the caf, demand can vary from 30 -50 nuffins per day. The caf
spends 20 cents of a muffin and charge 80 cents. Unsold muffins have no salvage value
and cannot be carried)
Question
Find the optimal stocking level
The stock-out risk for that quantity
Cost of excess stock
Cost per unit – Salvage value per unit
0.2–0
0.20 per unit
Cost of surplus stock
Revenue per unit – Cost per unit
0.8 – 0.20
0.60 per unit
Service Level
Cs/Cs+Ce
0.60/0.6+0.2
0.75
The optimal stocking level (i.e.L order quantity) must satisfy 75% of demand
For uniform distribution
This will be at a point qual to the minimum demand plus 75% of the difference
between maximum and minimum demands
So = 30 + 0.75*50-30) = 45 muffins
Stock out risk is 1 - 0.75 = 0.25
Example
35
Suppose the distribution of demand for muffins in the previous example was
approximately normal with mean of 40 muffins per day and a standard deviation of 5
muffins per day
Question
Find the optimal stocking level for the muffins
Solution
Recall that Cs - $0.60, Ce =$0.20 and SL = 0.75
This indicates that 75% of the normal curve must be to the left of the stock level
The z value is between 0.67, 0.68 so .675
So = 40 + 0.675 (5) = 43.374 or 43 muffins
36
In other words, choose the stocking level so that the desired service level is equalled or just
exceeded
the service level in this case is compared with the cumulative probability of demand (above)
Example
Historical records on the use of spare parts as an estimate of usage for the spare part in a
similar but new press
Stock out costs involve downtime expenses and special ordering cost. These average
$4,200 per unit short)
The spare parts cost $1,200 each and unused part has $400 salvage value
Question
Determine the optimal stocking level
Number of spare used 0, probability 0.20, cumulative probability 0.2
Number of spare parts used 1, probability is 0.3 and cumulative probability is 0.6
Number of spare parts is 2 than 0.30, 0.9
Number of spare parts 3, than 0.1 and 1
Number of parts 4 or more than 0, 0
Given
Cs = 4,200
Ce = 1,200 – 400 = 800
Stocking level
Cs/Cs+Ce = 4200/4200+800 = 0.84
Percentage of time that demand was equal to or less than some amount O
Example: demand<one part occurred 60% of the time but
demand < 2 parts occurred 90% of the time
Example
Demand for long stemmed red roses is approximated by poisson distribution has a
mean of 4 dozens of roses per day. The profit on the roses is $3 per dozen. Leftover
flowers are marked down and sold the next day at a loss of $2
Question
What are the optimal stocking level?
Given
Cs = 3
Ce = 3
SL = 3/3+3 = 0.60
Table
Demand, cumulative probability
0, 0.018
1, 0.092
2, 0.238
3, 0.434
4, 0.629
5, 0.785
37
Maintenance
Explain what maintenance is, its importance in production systems, and the range of
maintenance activities
Maintenance
All activates that keep facilities and equipment in good working order so
that a system can perform as intended
Breakdown (emergency) maintenance
Dealing with breakdowns (repair/replacement) only after they occur
Preventive maintenance
Reducing or avoiding breakdowns through a program of lubrication, bolt
tightening, cleaning, inspection, and replacement of worn parts
Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM)
An approach that reduces the effect of each major cause of failure for
equipment functions
Maintenance activities
Building and grounds
Appearance and functioning of buildings, roads, parking lots, lawns,
fences, and the like
Equipment maintenance
Responsible for maintaining machinery and equipment in good working
condition and making all the necessary repairs
**focus of the chapter
Goal of maintenance management
Keep the production system in good working order at minimum cost
Describe preventive maintenance and determine the economic amount of preventive
maintenance
Goal
Reduce breakdowns
Avoid associated costs
Loss of output
Idle workers
Unexpected repairs
Most preventive maintenance is periodic
Can be scheduled according to
The result of planned inspections that reveal a need for maintenance
According to the calendar (passage of time)
After a predetermined number of operating hours (or miles for trucks)
Important issue
Frequency
As the time between two periodic maintenance increase, the cost of
preventive maintenance per unit time decrease while the risk (and cost)
of breakdowns increase
Goal
Maintenance staff
Well trained and readily available to diagnose and correct problems
with equipment
The degree depends on importance of the equipment
At one extreme, the equipment is the focal point of the system
The other, the equipment is seldom used
Decide when to replace a machine or a group of components
When breakdowns become frequent and costly, managers must trade of costs
What is the cost of replacement compared with the cost of repair?
The question is sometimes difficult to resolve
Especially if future breakdowns cannot be predicted
Historical records may help project
Another situation
Replacement before failure may be economical is in group replacement of
components
Allowing to buy in bulk
Example 6
Facts
The maintenance manager wants to know whether he should have all the
3,000 fluorescent light bulbs to illuminate the plant, replaced
together in order to save labour costs
There are three light bulbs in a fixture (1,000 fixtures)
They are lit about 4,000 hours a years
The light bulbs have a rated life of 25,000 hour swath a standard
deviation of 5,000 hours
If all the light bulbs are replaced together, it will take 12 minutes per
fixture
Individually, it will take 20 minutes (because the latter has to be brought
from storage and returned there after the work)
Labour costs are $15 an hour
Each bulb costs $1.35 (group replacements with result in a break in
price.. buying in bulk [ignore this fact])
Solution
The average life of a bulb in years of usage is 25,000/4,000 = 6.25 years
with a standard deviation of 4,000/5,000 = 0.8 years
It will likely last 3 years
Outline
Introduction
Preventive maintenance
Breakdown (emergency) maintenance
Replacement
Introduction
Vocab
Maintenance
All activates that keep facilities and equipment in good working order so that a
system can perform as intended
Breakdown (emergency) maintenance
Dealing with breakdowns (repair/replacement) only after they occur
Preventive maintenance
Reducing or avoiding breakdowns through a program of lubrication, bolt
tightening, cleaning, inspection, and replacement of worn parts
Reliability-centered maintenance (RCM)
An approach that reduces the effect of each major cause of failure for
equipment functions
Maintenance activities
Building and grounds
Appearance and functioning of buildings, roads, parking lots, lawns, fences, and the
like
Equipment maintenance
Responsible for maintaining machinery and equipment in good working
condition and making all the necessary repairs
**focus of the chapter
Goal of maintenance management
Keep the production system in good working order at minimum cost
Reasons for wanting to keep equipment and facilities in good operating condition
Avoid production disruptions (down time), including slowdowns and reduced yield
Maintain high quality and safety
Avoid missed delivery dates
Basic options with respect to maintenance
Breakdown (emergency) maintenance
Preventive maintenance
Example
Historical frequency of breakdowns of a machine per month are displayed on the table
Number of 0 1 2 3
Breakdowns
Frequency of 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1
Occurrence
Cost of breakdown repair: $1000
O
With no preventive maintenance
Preventive maintenance
Goal
Reduce breakdowns
Avoid associated costs
Loss of output
Idle workers
Unexpected repairs
Most preventive maintenance is periodic
Can be scheduled according to
The result of planned inspections that reveal a need for maintenance
According to the calendar (passage of time)
After a predetermined number of operating hours (or miles for trucks)
Important issue
Frequency
As the time between two periodic maintenance increase, the cost of preventive
maintenance per unit time decrease while the risk (and cost) of breakdowns
increase
Goal
Balance two cost
Given preventive maintenance (PM) in interval L,
If a breakdown occurs before L,
then a breakdown maintenance cost will be incurred, and machine will be
repaired and the next time between breakdowns (TBB) will start
If there is no breakdown before L,
then a PM cost will be incurred at time L
We determine L so that the expected cost of each consequence is equal;
Breakdown cost * Prob (TBB < L) = Preventive cost * Prob (TBB > L)
Breakdown cost * Prob (TBB < L) = Preventive cost * (1 – Prob (TBB < L)
(Preventive cost + Breakdown) * Prob (TBB < L) = Preventive cost
Rob (TBB<L) = Preventive Cost / (Preventive Cost + Breakdown Cost)
Choose L so that the probability that time between breakdowns is smaller than L is
equal to Preventive cost/(Breakdown cost + Preventive cost)
Marginal cost method is similar to that used in the single period model
Example 4
Suppose that the time before a breakdown is Normally distributed and has a mean of 3
weeks and a standard deviation of 0.60 week
If a breakdown costs an average of $1000
If preventive maintenance costs $250
What is the optimal preventive maintenance interval?
Preventive Cost / (Preventive Cost + Breakdown Cost)
250 / 250 + 1000 = 0.20
Find the number of standard deviations from the mean, represented by the area under the
normal curve of 0.2 (from left tail)
0.20 = z of -0.84
Mean + z(standard deviation) = 3 – 0.84(0.60) = 2.496 (round to 2.5 weeks)
Preventive maintenance should be performed prior to breakdown
Predictive or condition-based maintenance
Maintenance based on historical data and ongoing monitoring of equipment condition
Pressure
Rates of flow
Vibration
Noise
Humidity
Changes in electricity
Good predictive maintenance
Relies on complete records of each piece of equipment … to monitor the health of the
equipment
Date of installation
Operating hours
Dates
Types of repairs
Example 5
Management wants to cut unscheduled downtime to less than 1%
Standard maintenance check was a walk0through by operators, then by maintenance
staff
Problems were noted in a notepad and not recorded on a computer so it was difficult to
identify trends
They purchase Ivara
Operators walk through
Measure equipment
Enter into handheld device
Data is checked by software and an alarm will trigger for measurements out of
range
Typical problems (around 6 per day) include
Too much vibration
Low oil
Leaking seal
Total productive maintenance
Approach to maintenance where operators perform basic preventative maintenance on
their machines
Consistent with Jit/lean
Employees are given greater responsibility for quality, productivity and general
functioning of the system
Training employees in the proper procedures are a major part of TPM
How to keep equipment in good operating order
Providing the incentive to do so
Replacement
When breakdowns become frequent and costly, managers must trade of costs O
What is the cost of replacement compared with the cost of repair?
The question is sometimes difficult to resolve
Especially if future breakdowns cannot be predicted
Historical records may help project
Another situation
Replacement before failure may be economical is in group replacement of components
Allowing to buy in bulk
Example 6
Facts
The maintenance manager wants to know whether he should have all the 3,000
fluorescent light bulbs to illuminate the plant, replaced together in order to save
labour costs
There are three light bulbs in a fixture (1,000 fixtures)
They are lit about 4,000 hours a years
The light bulbs have a rated life of 25,000 hour swath a standard deviation of
5,000 hours
If all the light bulbs are replaced together, it will take 12 minutes per fixture
Individually, it will take 20 minutes (because the latter has to be brought from
storage and returned there after the work)
Labour costs are $15 an hour
Each bulb costs $1.35 (group replacements with result in a break in price..
buying in bulk [ignore this fact])
Solution
The average life of a bulb in years of usage is 25,000/4,000 = 6.25 years with a
standard deviation of 4,000/5,000 = 0.8 years
It will likely last 3 years
Project Management
Table of Contents
Introduction................................................................................................................................................7
The Project Manager’s Job.................................................................................................................9
Project Planning........................................................................................................................................10
Risk Management Planning...................................................................................................................11
Work Breakdown Schedule...................................................................................................................13
Project Scheduling.....................................................................................................................................13
Gantt Chart............................................................................................................................................14
PERT/CPM Technique............................................................................................................................16
Precedence Network.............................................................................................................................16
Deterministic Activity Durations................................................................................................................18
Solution Technique................................................................................................................................19
Calculating Activity Slack Times.............................................................................................................26
Probablistic Activity Durations..................................................................................................................28
Determining Path Probabilities.............................................................................................................30
Project Crashing........................................................................................................................................32
Project Execution and Control...................................................................................................................36
Project Management Software.................................................................................................................38
Learning Objectives
Introduction
Project Manager’s Job
Project Planning
Risk management planning
Work breakdown structure
Project Scheduling (lo3)
Gantt chart
PERT/CPM Technique
Precedence Network
Precedence network
Diagram of project activities and their sequential relationships by use of
arrows and nodes
Using simulations
Project Crashing (LO6)
Project Execution and Control
Vocab
Project execution
Involves performance of activities planned
Project control
Comparing a project’s progress against plans and taking corrective
action if necessary
Project Management Software
Using Microsoft project
Deltek (Welcom)
Learning Objectives
Describe what a project is and discuss the nature of the managers job
Project: unique, large, one-time job requiring special activities to accomplish a specific
objective in a limited time frame
Work
The work so that all of the neccssary activities are accomplished in the desired
sequence and performance goals are met
Human resourcs
So that those working on the project have direction and motivation
Communication
So that everybody has the information they need to do their work (usually
through regular meetings), and th customer sonsor is well informed
Logs of actions, issues and risk should be kpt to manage the projct and to have as
project history
Quality
So that the specific objective is realized
Time
So that the project is completed on schedule
Costs
So that the projct is completed within budgt
Manager’s skills include ability to
Motivate and direct team members
Build a team
Make trad-off dcisions in project performance goals
Expedite th work when necessary
Deal with obstacles and team conflicts
Handle failure, fear of failure
Monitor time, budgt and techniqical details
Strong leadership skills
Vocab
Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
Network in which arrows designate activities
Activity-n-nodes (AON)
Network in which nodes designate activities
Beta distribution
A family of continuous positive distributions used to descrive the inheret variability in
activity durations
CPM
Critical path method, used for scheduling and control of large projects
Critical activities
Activities on the critical (longest) path
Critical path
The longest path from start to end, determines the expected project durations
Deterministic durations
Durations that are fairly certain
Matrix organizations
An organizational structure that temporarily groups together specialists from different
departments to work on special projects
Most likely distribution
The most probable length of time under the best conditions (To)
Optimistic durations
The length of time under the best condition (to)
Path
A sequence of activities that leads from the start node to the end node
Path slack system
Allowable slippage for a path
The difference between the length of the path and the length of the critical longest path
Performance goals for a project
For a project, keeping the project within
Schedule
Budget
Quality guidelines
PERT
Program evaluation and reviw technique, used for scheduling and control of large
projects
Pessimistic durations
The length of time under the worst conditions (Tp)
Precedence network
Diagram of project activities and their subquential relationships by use of arrows and
nodes
Probabilistic durations
Durations that allow for variations
Project
Summary
Project
Unique, one-time, job requiring special activities by different people, established to
realize a specific objective in a limited time span
Projects go through a life cycle that involves
Initiation
Planning and scheduling
Execution
Control
Closeout
Most organizations are structured as a matrix
With memers working for both projects and a functional department
Project manager
Responsible for all project activities from inception to close-out, including meting the
project performance goals f being on time and within quality specifications and budgets
Project planning
Involves finalizing the project scope
Create the work breakdown structure
Risk management planning
Risk identification
Assessment
Response planning
Scheduling
Cost estimations and budgeting
Quality
Communications
Purchase planning
Schedule/control Gantt charts are used to schedule simple projects
PERT/CPM
Used to schedule complex projects
Precedence network
Depicts the sequential relationships that exist among activities
The solution reveals the largest (critical) path and the critical activities (i.e.: those
activities that must be completed on time to achieve timely project completion)
For projects iwht variable activitiy durations, the 3-point estimates method can be used
It is possible to shorten (crash) the length of a project by shortening one or more of the critical
activities
Such gains are achieved by the use of additional resources but shortening will save
indirect project costs
Project execution
Involves putting the project plans into actions, buying materials, and assigning team
members, or subcontracting the work
Project control
Means taking measurements of project performance and takng corrective action if
necessary
Project management software
Microsoft project
Deltek’s (Welco) EPM suite
Introduction
Learning Objectives
Describe what a project is and discuss the nature of a project manager’s job?
Program
Set of projects
All projects are expected to achieve the following performance goals
To be completed within
time/schedule
cost/budget
quality guidelines
To accomplish this
Projects must be authorized
Their objectives and scope must be established
A project manager should be appointed
Prject must be planned
10
Communication
So that everybody has the information they need to do their work (usually
through regular meetings), and th customer sonsor is well informed
Logs of actions, issues and risk should be kpt to manage the projct and to have as
project history
Quality
So that the specific objective is realized
Time
So that the project is completed on schedule
Costs
So that the projct is completed within budgt
Manager’s skills include ability to
Motivate and direct team members
Build a team
Make trad-off dcisions in project performance goals
Expedite th work when necessary
Deal with obstacles and team conflicts
Handle failure, fear of failure
Monitor time, budgt and techniqical details
Strong leadership skills
Adapt to changing circumstances that may involve changes to project
performance goals, technical requirements and project team composition
Recognize need for change
Decide what changes are necessary
Accomplish them
Ethical issues
Temptation to understate costs
Withhold information in order to get a project approved
Pressure to alter or make misleading statements on status erports
Falsifying records
Compromising workers’ safety
Approving substandard work
Project Planning
Further elaboration of the scope (the work to be done)
Breaking down the project into smaller componenets
Delieverables, subprojects, work packages, and activities
Risk management planning
Identification, analysis and response plans to what may go wrong
Estimating the required resources for the activities
Employees, equipment, material
Cost estimation
11
12
Use tools ike scenario analysis, simulation, decision trees and sensitivity analysis O
Plan a response to avoid/transfer/mitigate the risk
Risk response can take many forms depending on the nature and scope of
project
Steps
Identify root cause of risk
Categorize their source
Risk response
Redundant (backup) systems
An emergency generator could supply power in the
event of an electrical fire
Using a less complex process or a more stable supplier
Frequent monitoring of critical project aspects with the goal of
catching and eliminating problems in their early stages, before
they cause extensive damage
Transferring risks, say by outsourcing a particular component of a
project and requiring performance bonds
Risk-sharing, for example, as in oil and gas consortium
Extending the schedule, creating contingency funds, reducing
project scope, clarifying the requirements, obtaining
information and improving communication
13
Steps
Develop a work breakdown structure is to identify the major components of te project
These could be the phase of project, deliverables or subprojects
Identify major subcomponents is decomposed into work packages
A work package can be performed by a worker, team or subcontracter
Each work package, possible with assistance from the worker, team or
subcontractor is broken down into a list of activities that will be needed to
accomplish it
Project Scheduling
Steps to project scheduling
Indemnify the activities of WBS
Including attributes and whether it is a milestone activity
Any sequential dependencies of every part of activities should be identified
If he needed resources cannot be identified, the activity should be further
decomposed
The duration of each activity can be estimated using information on the availability of
resources
14
The risk register could possibly add contingency time to the duration
As work is undertain, more accurate estimates of costs and times become
available
Schedule is developed using the activity duration estimates and the sequential
dependencies of activities by the PERT/COM technique
For one-point estimate (deterministic times)
For 3-point estimate (probabilistic times)
If project is late, schedule comptession methods such as project craching
(accelerating activities) and fast tracking (overlapping predecessor-successor
activities) will be performed
The schedule ewill be displayed via a
Gantt chart for simple scheduling/controlling
PERT/CPM technique using both
deterministic and probabilistic times
project crashing
Gantt Chart
popular tool for scheduling and control of the activities of simple projects
enables managers to schedule the activities and then to monitor their progress over time by
comparing their planned to actual progress
15
Chart indicates
When activites are to occur
Their planned duration
When they are to occur
The manger is able to see which activities are head of schedule and which are behild
Enables manager to direct attention
Advantage
Simple
Disadvantage
Fails to reveal relationships among activities that can be crucial to effective project
management
If one of the early activities in a projects suffers a delay, it would be important for
the manager to be able to easily determine which later activies are affected
Some activities may be safely delying without affecting the overall project
completion time
16
PERT/CPM Technique
By using PERT/COM
A graphical display of project activities and their sequential relationship
An estimate of how long the project will take
An indication of which activities are most critical to timely project completion
An indication of how long any activity can be delayed without delaying the project
PERT and CPM are the same
Precedence Network
Main feature of PERT/CPM
Depicts the project activities and their sequential relationships by use of arrows and
nodes
Two slightly different conventions for constructing these networks
Activity on arrow -- Arrows designate activities
Arrows represent both activities and the sequence in which they must be
performed
Activity on node -- Nodes designate activities
Arrows show only the sequence in which activities must be performed
while the nodes represent the activities
Start at node S, not activity but is added in order to have a single stating
node … also has one end node
Types of relationships
Start to start
An activity can only start after the other has started
Finish to finish
Start to finish
Finish to start
Possible to require a pre-specified minimum delay (time buffer) in any of these
relationships
Some dependencies may be discretionary
There may be external dependencies (an externally determined start or finish time for an
activity
We will consider only finish to start
17
One reason for the importance of paths is that they reveal sequential relationships
If one activity in a sequence is delayed or done incorrecty, all the following activities on
that path will be delayed
Important aspect of path is its length
Determined by summing the expected duration of the activities on it
Path of largest duration governs the project completion time
Expected project duration equals the expected duration of the longest path
If there are any delays along the longest path, the corresponding delays in the project
completion time
18
19
Solution Technique
Necessary calculations can be exceedingly time consuming, large networks are analyzed by a
computer program and a solution technique that develops four values for each activity
O ES … the earliest time the activity can start
O EF … the earliest time the activity can finish
O LS … the latest time the activity can start and not delay the project O
LF … the latest time the activity can finish and not delay the project
Once the values have been determined, find
Expected project duration
Activity slack times
20
21
22
We calculate the latest start and finish time, starting from the right and moving to the left of the
precedence network (backward pass) using the following two simple rules
O The latest start for any activity is equal to its latest finish time minus its expected
duration
LS = LF – t
For a node with one immediate successor, LF equals the LS of that node. For the node with
multiple immediate successors, LF equals the smallest LS of those nodes. Let LC of the
end node equals its EF
23
24
25
26
27
Therefore, S 1,5,7 are all critical activities (which agrees with the result of
the intuitive approach)
Knowledge of activity slacktimes provide managers wit information for
planning the allocation of scarce resource and for directing control
efforts otwoard those activities that are most susceptible to delaying
the project
O It is important to recognize that activity slack times are based on
the assumption that all of the activities on the same path will be
started as early as possible and not exceed there expected
times
28
If two activities are both on the same path (i.e.: activities 2, 6 in the
preceeding example) and have the same slack time (2 weeks),
this will be the total slack available to both
The activities have shared slack
If the first activity uses all the lack, there will be 0 slack for
the following activities on the path
= 6
O
standard devi ation is estimated to be one-sixth of the difference betwe en
The
ℎ= ∑( ℎ ℎ)
2 =[ 6
]2
29
30
Knowledge of the path’s expected duration and standard deviation of duration enables
managers to calculate probabilistic estimates of the project completion time
by
O
= ℎ
ℎ ℎ ℎ ℎ
ℎ ℎ
project is not completed until all of its activities have been completed
risky to focus exclusively on the critical path, requires determining the probability that
each path will finish by a specified time and then multiply those probabilities
result is the probability that the project will be completed by a specified time
assumes independence in path durations … which requires 2 conditions
that the activity durations are independent of each other
that each activity is on only one path
31
32
Project Crashing
Estimate of an activities suration is usually made for a given evel of resouurces
Reduce length of project (crash) by using additional resources .. may reflect efforts to O
Avoid late penalty
O Take advantage of monetary incentives for timely or early completion of a project
O Free resources for another project
O With a new prodocut, you may be beating the market
33
May also reflect an attempt to reduce indirect costs associated with running projets 9i.e.;
facilities, equipment)
Project manager may be able to shorten a project by increasing DIRECT costs to speed up, thereby
realizing savings on indirect project cost
Time-cost trade off
Used to identify those activities that will reduce the sum of the indirect and direct
project cost
Only those activities on the critical path are potential candiates
Critical activities should be crashed according to crashing cost per period
Crash those with the lower crash cost per period first
Crashing should continue as long as the cost to crash is less than the benefits derived
from crashing
Assume that indirect costs are a linear function of project durations
We assume (direct) crashing costs per period increase faster, the more you crash a
project
General procedure for crashing
Obtain estimates of regular and crash durations and crash cost per period for each
activity and indirect project costs per period
Determine the lengths of all paths
Determine the critical activities
Crash critical activities, starting from cheapest, as long as crashing period does not
exceed benefit of crashing
Note that 2 or more paths may become ctiical as the orginal critical path becomes
shorter so that subsequent improvements will require simultaneous
shortenings of two or more paths
It will be more economical to shorten an activity that is one two or more of the
critical paths than 2 or more activities on each critical path
Costs related to crashing acivities; crashing activites reduce the indirect project cost but increase
direct costs; the optimum amount of crashing results in minimum of the sum of these two types
of costs
34
35
36
37
Forecasts cost estimates to completion (ETC) and cost estimate at
completion (EAC)
Quality control
38