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I have been working as a business development manager at the Maple Leaf restaurants from the
last 3 years. The restaurant was found by two friends, i.e. Mr. Smith and Mr. John in 2002, with
a capital investment of $30,000. In the start, they had established two restaurants, where they
were offering different sort of foods, ranging from traditional local dishes to continental dishes.
The company had made handsome net profits in the first two years of its inception, i.e. $13,000
and $14,500 in 2002 and 2003 respectively. Therefore, it was decided by the owners of the
restaurants to expand their restaurants chain to the other localities of United States as well, which
was resulted in an aggressive expansion campaign and the company had opened 20 new
restaurants in different states of the country by the end of 2010 with a net profits figure of $1.2
million. Now the company wants to enter into the hotelling business by opening a mid-sized 70
to 100 rooms hotel in Florida, the company went public by the end of 2012 in order to raise
Being the business development manager of the company, I have been assigned the task to
conduct an extensive market analysis and feasibility study to evaluate the impact of economic
conditions and country’s overall stability over the new entrepreneurial venture of the company.
Market Analysis
Florida is one of the most favorite destinations of the world for tourism and traveling. It is known
for its beautiful beaches, warmth temperature and other beautiful and attractive places, which
attracts more than 60 million people from all around the world during a year. It was nominated as
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the most favorite destination of America for spending vacations in 2011 and about 42% of the
people residing in the Northeast United States always planned to visit Florida in their spring
vacations. There are a number of parks that attracts the attention of tourists towards Florida,
including Amusement Park in Orlando, the Walt Disney World Resort, SeaWorld, Busch Garden
and Universal Orlando resorts. Apart from these locations there are a number of beaches that
attracts the attention of tourists. In 2011, more than 48 million tourists had visited Florida and
spent about $46.9 billion. There is very tough competition in the hotelling industry of Florida
with about 543 hotels in Orlando, 413 hotels in Miami and 282 hotels in Fort Lauderdale.
Orlando is visited by a high number of visitors due to the presence of large number of
entertainment parks and especially the Disney Land and theme parks, but on the other side
Miami has also a high number of visitors during the Miami fashion week. So, both the places are
ideal for the company to make investment, but here the company will face a single disadvantage,
which is in the form of tough competition from the well known and already established brands.
Therefore, it is important to make critical analysis of the market and economy before starting the
new venture.
For this purpose, I would like to conduct the economic analysis of the country and specifically
for the state of Florida to check the viability of the investment in the new venture.
Economic Analysis
Following is the list of the key economic indicators that can affect the viability of the investment
in Florida.
Inflation
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Income
Recession
Exchange Rate
Interest Rate
Inflation
Inflation is the most important factors to be considered by the company because the company is
planning to enter into the hotelling business, which is a highly customer centric business and
depends upon the purchasing power of the customers for their success. Increase in the rate of
inflation will decrease the purchasing power of the customers and they will not be able to
consume money on luxury goods due to high and unaffordable prices. (Doll, Krantz, & Trahan.
2011). It will also refrain the company from setting low prices to attract customers because it is
not possible for the management of Maple Leaf to bear huge losses from the newly established
business. As the increasing inflation can adversely affect the economic growth of the country,
which will reduce savings and the company will be unable to raise sufficient funds for their new
project even after listing the company publically. (Browne. 1981). The increasing inflation in a
country can make the nominal values uncertain, which make it difficult for the companies to plan
their new investments. (Morley, 1971). According to the report of US Bureau of Economics and
Business Affairs, the inflation rate in the country is falling down from 2012 onwards and the
latest figure is 1.95% rate of inflation during the month of April. (See Appendices). This shows
that the economy is stable and suitable for making new investments.
Income
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Income has a twofold affect over the prospective investment of the company in the new
entrepreneurial venture, i.e. the impact of household income of the country and the impact of net
earnings of the company during the past year, which is also referred as the amount of reserves
that the company maintained in their retain earnings. The company income is most important to
be taken into account because it is impossible to start a new venture on the basis of the debt from
financial institutions or the expected investment from the stock market. Because these resources
are always considered as secondary resources before execution of the investment in new venture,
therefore, it is necessary for the company to have sufficient funds in their retain earnings to
finance the initial phases of the project. (Tyagi, & Warren. 2004). Whereas, the household
income of the country affects both the return over investment and the pre-investment phases
because, if a country has a low household income index, it’s mean that the residents of the
country are unable to make investment in the stock market, which will affect the fund raising of
the company for the proposed project. On the other hand, due to low household income people
are unable to afford luxury and consume only on necessities, which will make the future return
on investment unclear and the company will be unable to make clear projections for their new
venture. According to the report of U.S. Census Bureau, the number of those people whose
average income is computed as less than $2 per day, before adding any sort of government
benefits is increased from 636,000 to 1.46 million between 1996 to 2011, where the figure is
further increased to 4.26 million by adding the 2.8 million children as well. The household
income has been declined due to the direct impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 over the
American economy. The annual average household income of the American shows that they earn
about $71,274 annually, which is just a bit above the average percentile computation. (Brady.
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2012). This shows that the American’s average propensity to consume is not too much
attractive, therefore it will not be a best option for the company to execute its investment plan in
the new venture. I think the company should wait for some suitable time or make the investment
in such a manner that they can easily target the base of the payramid.
Recession
It is a phase in business cycle, when the economy enjoys a long term growth and reached to the
stability and peak point, then it must have to experience a downfall , just like the famous saying
“what goes up must come down”. This downfall brings a huge unemployement and instability in
the economy, which eventually lower down the purchaising power of the people and their
standard of living. Whenever, an entrepurer want to make investment during the recession phase,
he shall consider two points before going ahead. First, he should assess that how long the
recession phase shall last and how long its affect will prevail in the economy, and second, he
should check the performance matrics of some other businessess that have the same worth as the
one he is doing, that up to how much extent these business are affected by the downfall. But in
case of executing a new venture, the entrepenurer shall consider the first point only. Although,
American economy has recovered from the great recession of 2008, but still there is a high
percentage of poverty prevail in the country with a high rate of unemployment. (Stelter, &
Rhodes. 2010). I think, being an entrepenurer it is a good opportunity to execute the investment
on new venture because the economy is facing the recovery phase and this will benefit the Mepal
Leaf company to arrange cheap human resource and other capital resources for their new
venture. The company can also get benefit from the huge potential of the economy for the
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growth and will be able to enjoy profits from the start, just like its restaurant business. (Lion.
2013).
Exchnage Rate
In the past, it was believed that the exchange rate uncertainty reduces the level of investment in
the economy and especially discouraged those businesses who have a direct dependence or
interaction with the foreign clients. But this has been challenged by the modern economists, as it
is stated by Pindyck and Dixit (1994) that the investment is an irreversible activity. They argued
that it is the market conditions or considerations that causes fall or rise in the investment. For
example the market is experiencing high prices and passess through a phase of inflations then it
will be better for the invetors to wait until the situations become normal or the competitors
comes up to make investments. But on the other hand I believe that exchange rate fluctuations
has a great impact over the market uncertainty because people make their decisions on the basis
of the purchasing power of their money and exchange rate can directly affect the purchaising
power of the people. According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund), most of the countries
wants to do business in other currencies due to the declining value of US dollar and its instability
in the international market, i.e. the value of the US dollas has declined to the 15 years low value.
However, still the US currency holds about 62% of the $6 trillion amount that has been allocated
to the foreign exchange holdings by the World’s Central Bank. (Holly.1995). Therefore,
exchange rate fluctuations and the instability of the US currency will not affect the decision of
Mepal Leaf restaurants regarding their investment in the new venture. However, they should
analyse the market considerations closely and make their decision according to the market
conditions of Florida.
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Interest Rate
Interest rate has a direct impact over the decision of the investors regarding making investment
in a new venture because it is the interest rate that can determine, whether the money increase its
value by saving in the fixed deposit accounts or investing in the money market instruments. This
can also affect the decision of investors regarding investing their income in the execution of a
new business venture. (Jha. 2011). The increase in interest rate can negatively affect the
investment in a country because the cost of raising capital become very high in such situation.
Since the last three years the United States of America has fixed their real interest rate at a very
low figure i.e. 1.3, 1.5 and 1.7 in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively. Because the country’s
economy is facing a recovery stage from the last recession of 2008, therefore, the government
want to increase investment in the country. (Rebonato.1998). Hence, the situation for raising
capital from the market become more easy for the Mapel Leaf restaurants for their new
entrepenurial venture and it will be a suitable time to execute this venture in the current
economic conditions.
On the basis of the above discussion, it has been evaluated that Maple Leaf Resturants should
execute the investment in the new entrepenurial venture and develop a hotel in Orlando because
it will be a profitable business for the company due to favorable market and economic
conditions.
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Appendices
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Ten years data of the Main and Median income of the United States
Median income Mean income
Region and Number
Current Current
year (thousands) 2012 dollars 2012 dollars
dollars dollars
United States of America
2012 122,459 51,017 51,017 71,274 71,274
2011 121,084 50,054 51,100 69,677 71,133
2010 (37) 119,927 49,276 51,892 67,392 70,970
2009 (36) 117,538 49,777 53,285 67,976 72,767
2008 117,181 50,303 53,644 68,424 72,968
2007 116,783 50,233 55,627 67,609 74,869
2006 116,011 48,201 54,892 66,570 75,810
2005 114,384 46,326 54,486 63,344 74,502
2004 (35) 113,343 44,334 53,891 60,466 73,501
2003 112,000 43,318 54,079 59,067 73,741
2002 111,278 42,409 54,127 57,852 73,837
2001 109,297 42,228 54,766 58,208 75,491
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References
Dixit, and Pindyck. (1994). “Investment under Uncertainty”, Princeton University Press,
Princeton,N.J
Holly. (1995). “Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Export Performance: Supply and Demand
Doll, Krantz, & Trahan. (2011). The Era of Uncertanity: Global Investment Strategies For
Brady. (2012). Income Investing with Bonds, Stock and Money Markets.
Tyagi, & Warren. (2004). The Two Income Trap: Why Middle Class Parents are Going Broke,
International Edition.
Stelter, & Rhodes. (2010). Accelerating out of the Great Recession: How to Win in a Slow
Growth Economy.
Lion. (2013). Some Investments are Recession Proof (feat. Roads Collide).
Rebonato. (1998). Interest-Rate Option Models: Understanding, Analysing and Using Models