ARAB-­KURD  PERSPECTIVES  IN  ZUMMAR  &  WANA  SUBDISTRICTS

SUMMARY  FINDINGS
Conflict   and  Stabilization   Monitoring   Framework  for  Ninewa

JULY  2018
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BASIC  CONTEXT

RABBIA
• Returns  in  two  waves:  mid   2015  (after  I SIS  
KURD
expulsion)   and  October  2017   (after  security  
ZUMMAR
RETURNEES
change).
WANA

• Second   wave  mostly   characterized  by  Arab  

AYADHIYA
TIL KAIF
SINUNI
ARAB
RETURNEES

HAMDANIYA
population   previously   blocked   from  return  (most  
were  displaced   into  Mosul   or  in  IDP  camps).

Evolution   of  t he   total  number   of   returnees  per   subdistrict   from   May  2015   to  March   2018

Source:  IOM  DTM

SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

Summary  findings (narrative):

• All   indicators  regarding  relations  and  p erceptions  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  security  forces  and  armed  
groups  tend  to  b e  relatively  positive  across  groups.
• If  anything,   Arab  population   tend  to  feel  more  comfortable   than  the  Kurd  
population.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

Summary  findings (narrative):

• All   indicators  regarding  relations  and  p erceptions  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  security  forces  and  armed  
groups  tend  to  b e  relatively  positive  across  groups.
• If  anything,   Arab  population   tend  to  feel  more  comfortable   than  the  Kurd  
population.
• Significant  differences  in  how  groups  feel  secure,  with  Kurds  showing  relatively  low  
rates.
• However,   sources   of  insecurity   are  not  linked   to  potential   violence   by  (or  within)  
armed  groups,   but  by   conflicts   within   the  community   itself.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

Summary  findings (narrative):

• All   indicators  regarding  relations  and  p erceptions  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  security  forces  and  armed  
groups  tend  to  b e  relatively  positive  across  groups.
• If  anything,   Arab  population   tend  to  feel  more  comfortable   than  the  Kurd  
population.
• Significant  differences  in  how  groups  feel  secure,  with  Kurds  showing  relatively  low  
rates.
• However,   sources   of  insecurity   are  not  linked   to  potential   violence   by  (or  within)  
armed  groups,   but  by   conflicts   within   the  community   itself.
• Rates  o f  militarization   among  the  civilian  population  is  h ighest  across  all   districts  
analysed.
• Stronger  drive  to  join   “to  protect  community”   by  the  Arab  population   more  than  
the  Kurds.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  The  security  configuration  allow  for  the  expression  of  differing  ethno-­‐religious  and/or  political  identities.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  feel  they  can  express  their  ethnic-­‐sectarian  identity  without  fear  of  violence  against  them

QUESTION:  Given  the  security  forces  or  armed  groups  present  in  your  subdistrict,  how  comfortable  are  you  in  publicly  expressing  
your  ethnic-­‐religious  identity  without  fear  of  violence  against  you?

• Similar   rates  for  “political   views”.

• Arab  respondents   feel  significantly   more  comfortable,   but  percentages  overall  are  relatively   high  and  positive.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  Citizens  are  confident  that  the  security  actors  responsible  for  their  areas  are  impartial.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  think  the  security  forces  and/or  PMU  represents  their  community’s  interests

QUESTION:  How  well  are  your  component’s  interests  protected  in  the  current  security  configuration  in  your  subdistrict?

• Percentages  are  also   relatively  high  for  both   groups   vis-­‐à-­‐vis   armed  groups   in  the  area.
• Arab  respondents   feel  significantly   more  positive   attitudes  – linked   probably   to  these security   forces   being  the  ones  
that  allowed   them  to  return.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  Security  forces  or  armed  groups  do  not  engage  in  violence  to  advance  political  agendas  or  to  oppose  peace  process.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  believe  political  violence  by  security  forces  or  armed  groups  is  taking  places  or  will  take  place  in  the  
immediate  term

QUESTION:  Do  you  feel  security  forces  or  armed  groups  are  carrying  out  acts  of  political  violence  in  your  subdistrict?

• Most  common   response   refers  to  “political   violence   is  not  taking  place   now”  -­‐-­‐ more  than  half   for  Arab  respondents  
and  30%  for  Kurdish   respondents.   There  are  few  “worried  it  will  happen”.
• BONUS  DATA:  Revenge and  ethno-­‐religious  tensions are  the  biggest  security   threats  perceived   by   Arab  respondents;  
new  ISIS  threats and  theft are  the  biggest  ones   perceived   by  Kurd  respondents   à this  links  to  risks  o f  conflict  within  
the  community.
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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  There  is  a  safe  and  secure  environment.

INDICATOR:  %  of  residents  who  feel  comfortable  to  move  around  the  town  at  any  time

QUESTION:  How  comfortable  are  you  moving  around  your  subdistrict  day  or  night?

• The  majority   of  Kurd  respondents   do  not  feel  comfortable   moving   around   Zummar /  Wana (the  29%  ”very  
uncomfortable”   is  the  highest  across   districts),   but  Arab  respondents   do   express  significantly   positive   feelings.

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  There  is  not  a  growing  militarization  of  the  civilian  population.

INDICATOR:  %  of  civilians  recruiting  into  armed  forces

QUESTION:  There  are  many  security  forces  or  armed  groups  active  in  I raq  at  present.  I s  any  member  of  your  house  hold  part  of  
these  security  forces  or  armed  groups  anywhere  in  I raq?

• Equal  rates  for  both  groups   – rate  of  recruitment  is  on   the  upper   side   if  compared   with  other  districts   (only   Rabbia
having  such   high   percentages).

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SAFE  AND  SECURE  ENVIRONMENT

GOAL:  There  is  not  a  growing  militarization  of  the  civilian  population.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  perceive  local  recruits  joining  security  forces  or  armed  groups  for  ideological  reasons  as  first  option

QUESTION:  Why  do  you  think  members  of  your  component  in  general  (not  only  your  household)  join  security  forces  or  armed  
groups  as  first  option?  

• Kurd  respondents   significantly   pointing   to  ”economic   need”,  in   line  with  most  of  the  other  districts.
• Arab  respondents   are  split   in  equal  parts  between   “economic   need”   and  “protecting  my  community”   à potential   link  
to  more identitarian attitudes  especially   after  having  been   blocked   largely  based   on   ethnicity?

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Very  low  approval  rates  for  authorities  – both  central  and  p rovincial,  b ut  especially  
the  p rovincial  o ne.

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Very  low  approval  rates  for  authorities  – both  central  and  p rovincial,  b ut  especially  
the  p rovincial  o ne.
• On  p olitical   moderation:  n o  clear  picture,  d ifficult   to  measure  in  Zummar and  Wana?
• Low  indicators   on  marginalization,   low  indicators   on  zero-­‐sum   identity   politics,   but  
people   report  competition   between  ethnic   groups   in  the  area.

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Very  low  approval  rates  for  authorities  – both  central  and  p rovincial,  b ut  especially  
the  p rovincial  o ne.
• On  p olitical   moderation:  n o  clear  picture,  d ifficult   to  measure  in  Zummar and  Wana?
• Low  indicators   on  marginalization,   low  indicators   on  zero-­‐sum   identity   politics,   but  
people   report  competition   between  ethnic   groups   in  the  area.
• Reconciliation  is  seen  as  extremely   important,  shared  feeling  across  p opulation  
groups.
• Also   willingness   to  compromise   is  comparatively   high.

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  I nstitutions  are  responsive  to  the  population.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  perceive  responsiveness  of  provincial  institutions  now  as  good  or  very  good

QUESTION:  How  do  you  find  the  responses,  decisions  or  policies  of  the  provincial  government  in  addressing  needs  and  issues  in  
your  community?

• Very  low  approval   rates  (very  similar   for  all  groups  and   also  across  districts)   – however,   here  groups   are  giving  
especially   negative  views   as  more   than  half   responded   “very  bad”.
• Governorate  authorities,   compared   to  central  government,   receive  slightly   worse  approval   rates.

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  Authorities  and  dominant  groups  do  not  engage  in  exclusion  or  repression  of  dissent  on  the  basis  of  group  identity.

QUESTION:  Do  you  feel  your component  is  politically  or  socially  marginalized  and/or  neglected  in  the  subdistrict  now?

QUESTION:  Do  you   feel  other   components   are  politically   or  socially   marginalized  and/or   neglected  in  the  subdistrict   now?

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  Political  elites  and  leaders  are  not  polarized  on  the  basis  of  their  identities.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  perceive  their  local  political  elites  /  leaders  to  be  polarizing  communities  on  the  basis  of  identity

QUESTION:  Which  statement  comes  closer  to  your  views,  even  if  neither  is  exactly  right?

• More  than  half  of  respondents   across  groups   pointing   that  local  political   leaders  are  stirring  ethnic   divisions   à
competition   between  Kurds   and  Arabs.
• Very  few  (lowest  across   districts)   said  leaders   work  across  groups.

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  Political  elites  and  leaders  are  not  polarized  on  the  basis  of  their  identities.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  closely  or  very  closely  identify  with  a  national  identity  (i.e,  I raq)

QUESTION:  Please  indicate  which  image  most  clearly  depicts  your  feeling  of  belonging  in  relation  to  I raq  now.

• This   is  the  lowest   percentage  of  

”non-­‐I raqi”   feelings   (option   4).
• Although   less   intense,   Kurds   report  
strong  belonging   to  Iraq.
• Adaptation?   Risk-­‐reduction?

COMPARISON  between  intensity  of  feelings  of  belonging  to  Iraq  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  belonging  to  your  ethnic  group:

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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  There  is  a  desire  and  need  for  reconciliation  at  the  district  level.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  think  a  reconciliation  process  is  needed  and  possible

QUESTION:  How  possible  is  reconciliation  between  components  now  in  the  district?
(Question  asked  to  those  who  previously  answered  reconciliation  was  ‘very  necessary’  or  somewhat  necessary’)

• Lowest  percentage  across   districts   (by  a  large  margin)  of  respondents   saying  that  reconciliation   is  not necessary.
• Highest  percentage  across   districts  of   respondents   saying   that  reconciliation   is  possible.  
• No  differences   between  groups.
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POLITICAL  MODERATION  AND  STABLE  GOVERNANCE

GOAL:  There  is  a  desire  and  need  for  reconciliation  at  the  district  level.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  are  ready  and  willing  to  compromise  with  members  of  other  identity  groups  in  their  district

QUESTION:  Which  statement  comes  closer  to  your  views,  even  if  neither  is  exactly  right?

• Very  positive   position   for  both  groups   on  willingness   to  compromise   for  achieving   peace  (highest   across  districts).

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RULE  OF  LAW

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Positive  perception  across  groups  regarding  the  functioning  o f  formal  institutions  such  
the  j ustice  s ystem…
• A  perception   that  it  is  relatively  effective   and  trustworthy,   especially   when  
compared   with  responses   given   from  other  districts.

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RULE  OF  LAW

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Positive  perception  across  groups  regarding  the  functioning  o f  formal  institutions  such  
the  j ustice  s ystem…
• A  perception   that  it  is  relatively  effective   and  trustworthy,   especially   when  
compared   with  responses   given   from  other  districts.
• ...but  p ower-­‐b rokers  and  conflict  resolution  mechanisms  remain  mostly  “informal”   for  
the  Arab  p opulation  (less  for  Kurdish  respondents).

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RULE  OF  LAW

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Positive  perception  across  groups  regarding  the  functioning  o f  formal  institutions  such  
the  j ustice  s ystem…
• A  perception   that  it  is  relatively  effective   and  trustworthy,   especially   when  
compared   with  responses   given   from  other  districts.
• ...but  p ower-­‐b rokers  and  conflict  resolution  mechanisms  remain  mostly  “informal”   for  
the  Arab  p opulation  (less  for  Kurdish  respondents).
• HLP  issues  n ot  reported  (?)   but  relatively  high  p ercentage  o f  illegal   housing  
occupation.

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RULE  OF  LAW

GOAL:  The  criminal  and  justice  systems  perform  essential  functions  effectively.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  express  that  these  justice  systems  are  functioning  effectively  /  are  trustworthy  

QUESTION:  To  what  degree  do  you  think  the  criminal  and  civil  justice  systems  are  functioning  effectively  in  your  district?

QUESTION:  To  what  degree  do  you   think   the  criminal   and  civil   justice   systems  are  trustworthy   in  your   district?

• For  those   answering   “not  trustworthy”,   extremely  few  (8%-­‐11%)   reported  discrimination   based   on  identity   /  ethnicity.
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RULE  OF  LAW

GOAL:  Local  police  forces  exercise  effective  control  of  law  enforcement  in  the  subdistricts.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  that  report  a  crime  or  a  dispute  to  the  local  police  or  formal  court  (first)

QUESTION:  I f  you  face  a  crime,  security  issue  or  dispute,  who  do  you  feel  most  comfortable  to  speak  to  and  report  first?

• 64%  of  Kurd  respondents   reported  relying   on  “formal”  institutions   first,   like  police   or  courts.  Only   35%  of  Arab  
respondents   reported  similarly.
• Stronger  role  of  tribal  sheikh   /  mukhtars among  Arab  respondents   and,   to  a  lesser  extent,  Army  and  PMU  –
significantly   more  if  compared   to  Kurd  respondents.
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RULE  OF  LAW

GOAL:  Housing,  land  and  property  disputes  are  resolved,  or  at  least,  do  not  lead  to  tensions.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  with  unresolved  HLP  issues

QUESTION:  Do  you  have  any  unresolved  house,  land  and  property  issues?  

• Relatively  low  percentages  of  respondents   reporting  unresolved   HLP  issues   (those   reporting   are  mostly   located  in  
Zummar).
• However,   a  question   in   the  survey   specifically   about   the  status  of  respondents’   house   indicates   that  17%  of  Arab  
respondents   have  their  house   destroyed   (11%  for  Kurd  respondents)   and  13%  have  their  house   occupied   by  others  
without   permission   (0%  for  Kurd  respondents).
• This   lack  of  coherency   could   indicate  issues   in  data  collection   for  this  indicator.

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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Indicators  o n  trust  and  intra-­‐community  relations  are  significantly  negative  for  b oth  
groups…
• ...but  both  groups   also   seem  to  acknowledge   this  situation   as  a  problem.

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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Indicators  o n  trust  and  intra-­‐community  relations  are  significantly  negative  for  b oth  
groups…
• ...but  both  groups   also   seem  to  acknowledge   this  situation   as  a  problem.
• Differences  between  Arab  and  Kurd  respondents  regarding  whether  p rovision  and  
reconstruction  is  p rovided  equally  across  Wana /  Zummar.
• Arabs  reporting  unequal   provision,   while   Kurds  expressed   no  problem   with  this  
issue.

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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

Summary  findings (narrative):

• Indicators  o n  trust  and  intra-­‐community  relations  are  significantly  negative  for  b oth  
groups…
• ...but  both  groups   also   seem  to  acknowledge   this  situation   as  a  problem.
• Differences  between  Arab  and  Kurd  respondents  regarding  whether  p rovision  and  
reconstruction  is  p rovided  equally  across  Wana /  Zummar.
• Arabs  reporting  unequal   provision,   while   Kurds  expressed   no  problem   with  this  
issue.
• Population  returns  still  seems  to  b e  a  contentious  topic  in  the  area.
• In  general,  answers   show   that  there  is  support   for  screening   of  returnees   as  
precautions   to  avoid  ISIS  elements   back  into  the  subdistricts.

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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

GOAL:  There  are  no  groups  marginalized  by  the  rest  of  society  through  collective  blame,  punishment,  or  discrimination.

QUESTION:  Do  you  feel  you  or  your  component  is  judged  or  labelled  negatively  because  of  the  actions  of  others  who  have  the  
same  identity  as  you?

QUESTION:  Do  you   feel  other   components   different   from  your  own   are  judged   or  labelled   negatively  because   of  the  
actions   of  others  who   have  the  same  identity   as  them?

• For  both   components,   response   “always”  is  relatively  high,   while   very  few  “never”.
• Also   relatively  high  level   of  acknowledgment   regarding  negative  blaming  of   the  other.
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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

GOAL:  There  is  a  sense  of  trust  and  reciprocity  in  society  among  individuals  and  groups.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  citing  that  they  are  mistrusted  by  others  within  their  subdistrict

QUESTION:  How  much  mistrust  do  you  think  others  have  of  your  component  in  your  subdistrict?

• Both  groups   report  similar   rates  of  mistrust   (Arab  respondents   tend  to  report  “a  lot  of  mistrust”,   while  Kurds   report  
“some”).

• BONUS  DATA  à This   gap  in  social   relations   link  with  the  responses   given   by  Arab  respondents   to  the  question   about  
“what  do   you  think   the  other  group  is  upset   about?”.  Responses   given   were  frequently   “they  (Kurds)   are  upset  because  
of  our  (Arabs)   return”.
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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

GOAL:  Public  expectations  for  essential  service  provision  are  met  equally  across  the  populations.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  feel  reconstruction  or  service  provision  is  provided  not  very  equally  or  completely  unequally  in  the  
subdistrict

QUESTION:  Are  service  provision  and  reconstruction  provided  equally  across  locations  in  the  district?

• There  is  a  significant   difference   between  Kurd   and  Arab  respondents   regarding  perceptions   of  equality   in  services   and  
reconstruction   provision   à while  Kurds   do  not  report  perceiving   inequality   in  how   these  elements   are  provided,   Arabs  
do  report  a  certain  degree  of  inequality.
• This   is  linked   to  dynamics   of  new  vs  old   returnee,  with  new  returnees   perceiving   they  are  left  out  of  aid  and  support.
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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

GOAL:  There  is  social  acceptance  for  the  return  of  those  still  displaced  to  the  target  locations.

INDICATOR:  %  of  people  who  claim  that  members  of  their  group  are  still  blocked  from  returning  to  their  origin  areas

QUESTION:  Regarding  displacement  and  return,  are  members  of  your  component  from  this  subdistrict  blocked  from  returning  to  
their  original  homes  by  security  forces  or  armed  actors  and/or  local  authorities?

• Arab  respondents   still  report  in  a  relatively   high  percentage  that  members   of  their  component   are  still  blocked   or  
subjected   to  impediments   to  return.
• A  non-­‐negligible   percentage  of  Kurd  respondents   also  point   to  blocks   à most  likely   linked   to  secondary   displacement  
triggered  after  October   2017.
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SOCIAL  WELLBEING  AND  LIVELIHOODS

GOAL:  There  is  social  acceptance  for  the  return  of  those  still  displaced  to  the  target  locations.

INDICATOR:  %  of  residents  who  want  (or  are  comfortable  with)  those  still  displaced  from  different  groups  to  return

QUESTION:  How  do  you  feel  about  the  possible  return  to  this  subdistrict  of  those  families  of  different  components  who  are  still  
displaced?

• Preference  for  “some”  to  return  is   significantly   high   among  Kurd  respondents,   while   also  being   relatively  relevant  for  
Arab  respondents.
• Very  few  respondents   preferred  that  none   of   families   still  displaced   do  return.

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