fertility rates in sub-Saharan Africa are higher What do these trends imply for child poverty?

among the poorest households (Figure 5). However, While the number of sub-Saharan African children
Africa’s poor are escaping poverty far more slowly living in poverty will fall slightly, we estimate that
than children in other regions. The result is that an average of 87 million children will be born
children in Africa face a growing risk of being born into poverty annually over the decade to 2030.
into poverty relative to children in other regions. These children, along with those born into poverty

Figure 6 Number of children in poverty by region, 2018–2030 (millions)

East Asia and Paci c Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean
South Asia sub-Saharan Africa

402
400
341
Number of children in poverty (millions)

330

300
291

200 300
305

100
71
15
0
2018 2025 2030
Source: ODI, 2019

Figure 7 Percentage of those living on less than $1.90 per day who are children, by region
Developing world sub-Saharan Africa South Asia
East Asia and Paci c Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean

60
60 56 57 60
55
50
43
By 2030, Africa’s
40 children account
for 55% of global
extreme poverty
% 30 26

20

16
10

0
2002 2010 2018 2030
Source: ODI, 2019

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before 2020, will account for a dramatically rising Africa, which roughly corresponds to the
share of global extreme poverty. incidence of poverty for the region, increases the
Updating the simulations presented in an risk of mortality before the age of ve by more
earlier paper (Watkins and Quattri, 2016), we than 50%, almost doubles the risk of stunting and
estimate that 304.7 million sub-Saharan African more than triples the risk of a child dropping out
children (aged 0–19) will be living in extreme of school.2 Such gures illustrate the potential for
poverty in 2030 (Figure 6). These children will child poverty to erode the human capital critical
account for 55% of world poverty in 2030 to securing a demographic dividend.
compared with 43% in 2018 – and over three An age breakdown of prospective poverty
times the share in 2000 (Figure 7). reinforces this point (Figure 8). On our estimates,
Projections such as these are based on trends – 88 million children aged 0–4 years in sub-Saharan
and trends do not de ne the destinies of nations Africa will be living in extreme poverty in 2030.
or regions. Sub-Saharan Africa’s demography is This is the critical period for child development
not an automatic driver of child poverty. On the and human capital formation. Many of the
contrary, the region’s young population could children in question will experience malnutrition
emerge as a driver of dynamic and inclusive and micro-nutrient de ciency in their early
growth. Supported by strengthened health years, leading to delayed and disrupted cognitive
systems, greater gender equity and education development, fewer years of schooling, reduced
systems that impart high-quality learning, educational attainment and lower wages. The
Africa’s youth has the potential to emerge as a effects of stunting on brain development before the
socially transformative force for change. age of two are detectable in signi cant test score
Yet the warning signs are there. Childhood effects during primary and secondary schooling
poverty is itself a powerful obstacle to change. (Prado and Dewey, 2014). Another 152 million
Being born into the poorest 40% in sub-Saharan children will be spending their primary school

Figure 8 Estimated number of sub-Saharan African children in $1.90 poverty by age group, 2018–2030

Age 0–4 Age 5–14 Age 15–19

350
300 305
291
Number of poor children 0–19 (millions)

300
63 65
59
250

200
145 150 152
150

100

50 87 87 88

0
2018 2025 2030

Source: ODI, 2019

2 The higher risks in child outcomes have been calculated based on prevalence for under- ve mortality, stunting and
out-of-school children in primary school for children living in the poorest 40% of households compared to those living
the richest 40%. Calculations are based on GRID, Save the Children’s Child Inequality Tracker (https://campaigns.
savethechildren.net/grid).

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